中国经济网北京5月6日讯李子园（605337）(605337.SH)近日披露的2024年年度报告显示，公司去年实 现营业收入14.15亿元，同比增长0.22%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润2.24亿元，同比下降5.55%；归 属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润2.07亿元，同比下降5.24%；经营活动产生的现金流量 净额3.60亿元，同比下降12.92%。 经计算，李子园首次公开发行及向不特定对象发行可转换公司债券募集资金总额合计13.76亿元。 李子园2025年第一季度报告显示，公司首季实现营业收入3.20亿元，同比下降4.30%；归属于上市公司 股东的净利润6616.55万元，同比增长16.17%；归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 6178.58万元，同比增长5.11%；经营活动产生的现金流量净额1.31亿元，同比增长62.12%。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 本报告期比上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 增减变动幅度(%) | | 营业收入 | 319,977,088.07 | 334.364.152.28 | -4.30 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [9]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is expected to see improvements in 2025 after a challenging 2024, with various sub-sectors showing signs of recovery and growth potential [1][16]. Dairy Products - The dairy sector experienced a revenue decline of 7.2% in 2024, with a significant drop in net profit by 27% and 43.3% for attributable and non-recurring net profit respectively. However, Q1 2025 showed a slight revenue increase of 0.4% and a notable recovery in non-recurring net profit by 24.4% [2][16]. - Major dairy companies are expected to stabilize operations after channel adjustments, with recommendations for Yili and Mengniu [2][24]. Snack Foods - The snack food sector saw a revenue increase of 2.8% in 2024, but faced challenges in Q1 2025 with a revenue decline of 4.8%. The sector is benefiting from channel innovations and the growth of the konjac category [3][29]. - Companies like Yanjinpuzi and Ganyuan Foods are recommended due to their adaptability to market changes [3][33]. Beer - The beer sector faced a revenue decline of 1.5% in 2024, but Q1 2025 showed a recovery with a 3.7% revenue increase. The sector is expected to improve due to low inventory levels and a stabilizing restaurant demand [4][24]. - Recommended stocks include Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer [4][24]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector demonstrated resilience with a revenue growth of 15.7% in 2024, and a stable performance in Q1 2025 with a 5.5% increase. The sector is benefiting from strong travel demand and new product launches [5][24]. - Key recommendations include Nongfu Spring and attention to Kangshifu and Uni-President [5][24]. Condiments - The condiment sector saw a revenue increase of 7.7% in 2024, but growth has been modest in 2025. Major players are adjusting to improve market share [6][24]. - Companies like Haitian Flavoring and Zhongju Gaoxin are highlighted for their ongoing transformations [6][24]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food sector has been under pressure with a revenue increase of only 1.6% in 2024 and a decline of 5.1% in Q1 2025. Intense price competition is affecting profitability [7][24]. - The sector is expected to improve as restaurant demand recovers [7][24].

Summary of Industry and Company Insights from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Alcohol Industry - The liquor industry is currently in a bottoming phase, with overall deceleration and rising costs. High-end liquor brands like Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao show strong resilience, with combined revenue and profit growth of 7.4% and 7.9% respectively in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [1][12][11] - The high-end liquor segment is crucial, with brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao being particularly noteworthy. Other brands like Fenjiu and regional brands such as Jiuqu Hong and Gujing Gongjiu are also significant [4][12] - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 442.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [11] - The sales expense ratio for the liquor sector was approximately 9.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a strategy to maintain market share through increased spending [13] Beer Industry - The beer industry is facing sales pressure, with a slowdown in price upgrades. However, some companies are achieving excess profits through volume growth and improved operational efficiency [5][35] - In 2024, the beer sector's revenue was generally under pressure, but Q1 2025 saw a rebound in sales for most brands, excluding Budweiser [35][37] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a shift from high-end to low-end consumption, influenced by government policies and consumer expectations [2] - The condiment sector is in a phase of stock competition, with weak sales environments but better profit expectations due to sustained raw material cost advantages [3][43] Key Insights Financial Performance - The liquor sector's combined revenue growth for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 1.5%, with profit growth of 0.2% [11] - High-end liquor brands maintained stable profit margins, while mid-tier and regional brands experienced declines in revenue and profit [12][27] - Online sales for liquor reached 10.38 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, indicating a strong trend towards online sales [20] Consumer Trends - The consumer trend in 2025 shows a notable shift towards value-oriented purchases, with a more rational approach from investors in selecting companies for potential rebounds [2] - The snack food sector is seeing a divergence in performance, with production-oriented companies benefiting from category advantages while channel-oriented companies face pressure [46][47] Investment Recommendations - Investment focus should be on high-end stable brands in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as promising regional brands with strong market performance [25][22] - The beer sector is expected to recover in Q2 2025, with companies like Qingdao and Yanjing showing potential for growth due to low base effects from the previous year [42] Future Outlook - The liquor industry is anticipated to see significant differentiation in performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in 2025, with ongoing monitoring of market dynamics [23] - The overall valuation of the liquor sector is at historical lows, with a price-to-earnings ratio (PETTM) below 20 times, suggesting potential for recovery [24] Additional Considerations - The health supplement and additive sectors are expected to expand in the long term, with companies that have strong R&D capabilities showing stability and competitiveness [7][57] - The beverage market is experiencing significant differentiation, with energy drinks and electrolyte beverages launching new products, while competition in the sugar-free tea segment intensifies [9][58]

大众品：表现分化，结构性增长。 1 ）啤酒： 25Q1 收入同比 +4% 、净利润同比 +11% ， 销量景气修 复吨价承压，成本优势利润率持续改善。 2 ）软饮料： 25Q1 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +1% ，继 续保持较好景气度，龙头亮各有亮点。 3 ）零食： 食品综合板块分化明显，其中新渠道和新品类驱动下 零食成长性凸显， 24Q4 、 25Q1 收入分别同比 +18% 、 +2% ， 25Q1 受高基数和春节提前等因素影 响业绩增速阶段性下滑。 4 ）乳制品： 2024 年（ A 股）收入同比 -7% 、净利润 -27% ，度过调整期 后 25Q1 景气度和毛销差边际改善。 5 ）调味品： 2024 年板块收入边际改善， 25Q1 业绩稳步增长， 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +7% 、毛利率同比 +1.6pct 。 6 ） 餐饮供应链： 竞争加剧导致 2024 年 板块利润承压， 25Q1 收入同比 -5% 、利润同比 -13% 环比降速。 风险提示： 消费复苏不及预期、市场竞争加剧、成本进一步上涨、食品安全问题。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月5日发布的 结构分化，重视成长——食品饮 ...

投资建议 白酒板块：本周年季报业绩期收官，整体而言：白酒板块 24 年年报及 25 年一季报的兑现度均较为不错，绝大多数酒 企的表观业绩高度契合市场预期。在当下白酒行业景气度仍有所承压的背景下，一方面市场期待酒企能发挥其品牌/ 渠道/组织等优越性，积极紧抓消费需求、拼抢巩固自身市场份额；另一方面，市场亦深知欲速则不达，只有基本面 底盘企稳、酒企方能伴随景气上行而厚积薄发。因此，业绩的平稳兑现已是行业磨底期酒企交出的不错答卷。 当下已至白酒消费淡季，酒企的营销重心也逐步倾斜至流通渠道稳价盘、团购商务做客情、宴席聚饮抢需求。从目前 的动销反馈来看，宴席场景动销普遍反馈可圈可点、部分区域因民俗因素致使今年宴席有所回补，但团购商务、聚饮 动销仍较承压。考虑到春糖后外部贸易环境等不确定性进一步提升，我们预计短期白酒行业动销或仍处于小幅回落的 磨底状态，拐点仍待促内需、顺周期相关政策落地后从需求端曳引。 目前我们维持行业景气度仍处于下行趋缓阶段的判断，类似上一轮周期中 14 年下半年至 15 年，该时期行业景气度不 再断崖式回落、尤其淡季动销绝对量占比相对较低，但需求侧仍缺乏足够强的拉力。考虑产业层面已处于磨底阶段， 白 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first decline since Q2 2022, and falling short of the expected -0.2% [1][3] - This decline follows a growth of 2.4% in Q4 2024, indicating a significant downturn compared to the average growth rate of approximately 3% over the past two years [3][4] Trade and Consumer Spending - Net exports negatively impacted GDP by nearly 5 percentage points, the largest recorded impact, with imports surging by 41.3%, the highest increase in five years [3][4] - Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of GDP, grew by only 1.8%, the lowest rate since mid-2023, although it exceeded the expected 1.2% [3][4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q1 was initially reported at an annualized rate of 3.5%, surpassing the expected 3.1% [3][4] Corporate Responses and Market Reactions - Major companies like American Airlines, PepsiCo, and Procter & Gamble have expressed concerns over the unpredictability of Trump's tariff policies, which are disrupting business plans and consumer confidence [5] - General Motors withdrew its 2025 profit forecast due to automotive tariffs, highlighting the adverse effects of trade policies on corporate outlooks [5] - The stock market reacted negatively to the economic data, with significant declines in major indices following the announcement [1][3] Economic Forecasts and Implications - Economists predict that Trump's trade policies may lead to a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the latter half of the year, with the IMF revising its growth forecast down to 1.8% from 2.7% [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is causing consumers to make panic purchases, which may lead to a depletion of future demand [5] - The dual pressures of rising inflation and weakening economic momentum are creating challenges for the Federal Reserve, complicating monetary policy decisions [5]

Group 1: Dekoli - Dekoli's Q1 2025 operating performance shows structural adjustments, with a slight revenue increase of 6% year-on-year, but a significant decline in profit margins due to high-margin business price adjustments, soaring DCI business costs, and product structure changes [1] - The 800G DCI product has entered the customer customization development stage, expected to be launched within the year, with no current plans to expand to L-band [1] - Capacity bottlenecks are anticipated to gradually ease in Q3-Q4, despite challenges in overseas base construction and domestic new production line certification [1] Group 2: Proya - In 2024, Proya is set to become the first beauty company in China to exceed 10 billion in revenue, aiming to enter the top ten global cosmetics industry within the next decade with its "Double Ten Strategy" [2] - The main brand Proya still has room for market share growth in China, focusing on developing series such as Source Power, Energy, Whitening, and Base Makeup [2] - The company plans to enhance its product matrix through online channels and explore new formats in offline channels, while also targeting the Southeast Asian market for product development and local partnerships [2] Group 3: Xiangpiaopiao - Xiangpiaopiao's milk tea business faces pressure in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 due to external environment, internal strategy adjustments, and a long-termism approach [3] - The new product "Original Leaf Fresh Brew" has received positive feedback during trial sales, and the brand has gained significant visibility [3] - The company is focusing on optimizing product positioning for its "Lan Fang Yuan" frozen lemon tea and expanding its snack retail channels with customized products [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - On April 29, US stock market opened with Dow Jones up 0.09%, Nasdaq down 0.54%, and S&P 500 down 0.4% [1] - Honeywell's stock rose over 3% due to better-than-expected Q1 performance [1] - General Motors' stock fell over 2% due to suspension of stock buyback guidance related to Trump tariffs [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Coca-Cola reported a 2% decline in net revenue to $11.1 billion, but comparable EPS exceeded expectations at $0.73 [2] - General Motors' Q1 net sales and revenue reached $44.02 billion, a 2.3% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EPS of $2.78, above market expectations [3] - Honeywell's Q1 sales grew 8% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $2.51, a 7% increase compared to the previous year [4]

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 食品饮料 证券研究报告 食品饮料周报：政治局会议定调积极，看好饮料旺季催化 市场表现复盘 本周（4 月 21 日-4 月 25 日）食品饮料板块/沪深 300 涨跌幅分别-1.36%/+0.38%。具体板块来 看，本周零食（+4.50%）、软饮料（+2.21%）、其他酒类（+0.06%）、调味发酵品（-0.33%）、肉 制品（-0.53%）、啤酒（-0.72%）、保健品（-1.28%）、白酒 III（-1.75%）。 周观点更新 白酒：五一临近关注宴席场景拉动，Q1 板块释压预计总体持平微增。本周白酒板块-1.75%， 表现弱于食品饮料整体以及沪深 300，我们认为主要系：①当前处白酒消费淡季，需求端总体 仍偏弱；②25Q1 行业主动调整去库存&高基数背景下报表端预计承压。本周舍得酒业、华致 酒行发布一季报，天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、老白干酒发布年报&一季报，总体表现符合 预期（五粮液25Q1略超预期），从目前发布的酒企财报来看预计降速释压仍是酒企24Q4&25Q1 主旋律。五一旺季来临各头部品牌纷纷加码婚宴投入力度，从多地酒店宴席预订量增长情况来 看，五一期间白酒宴席场景预计有 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides investment ratings for various companies in the consumer staples sector, with "Outperform" ratings for companies like Haidilao, China Feihe, and China Resources Beer, while Budweiser APAC is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed trend in the cost indices of six categories of consumer goods, with spot cost indices for beer, frozen food, dairy products, seasonings, instant noodles, and soft drinks showing changes of +2.69%, +1.67%, +1.09%, -0.12%, -0.18%, and -1.58% respectively, while futures cost indices showed changes of -3.78%, +1.38%, +0.46%, -1.64%, -1.64%, and -2.61% respectively [36]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index for beer increased by 2.69% compared to last month, while the futures index decreased by 3.78%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.08% and the futures index by -5.24% [12][37]. Seasonings - The spot cost index for seasonings decreased by 0.12%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. The price of soybeans has been rising due to limited domestic supply and decreased imports [16][38]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products increased by 1.09%, and the futures index increased by 0.46%. Fresh milk prices have stabilized at 3.08 yuan per kilogram, with oversupply continuing to pressure prices [19][39]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles decreased by 0.18%, and the futures index decreased by 1.64%. Palm oil prices have fallen due to increased production and inventory accumulation [24][40]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index for frozen food increased by 1.67%, and the futures index increased by 1.38%. Vegetable prices have decreased significantly due to increased supply [28][41]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks decreased by 1.58%, and the futures index decreased by 2.61%. Prices are under pressure due to weak demand and capacity expansion [32][42].