2025 年 11 月 20 日 转债去伪存真，宜稳中求进 固定收益研究团队 ——2026 年转债年度策略 | 陈曦（分析师） | 刘伟（分析师） | | --- | --- | | chenxi2@kysec.cn | liuwei1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790521100002 | 证书编号：S0790524070008 | 2025 年市场行情良好 2025 年市场行情或是国内经济、美元流动性、产业趋势和估值便宜等因素共同 推动形成的指数行情。 对比之下，2026 年利好或相对有限。如果说经济复苏和估值便宜是 2025 年行情 最重要的机会，那么这两点因素或在 2026 年反而不再是机会，除了美元流动性 的宽松趋势之外，2026 年的新增利好或相对有限。 2026 年转债市场估值存压 展望 2026 年转债市场，转债市场利好有限，且周期和估值压力下，转债或同样 呈现为波动率放大，预期回报率或回落。 第一，转债周期，2024 年四季度至今的周期，目前已经上涨 1 年左右，对比之 下，历史的上涨周期普遍为 1-1.5 年左右。 截至 2025 年 11 月 17 日，万得全 A 指数上涨 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a weak fluctuation but managed to close slightly higher, with the Hang Seng Index ending at 25,835.57 points, up 4.92 points, or 0.02% [2][4] Sector Performance - The real estate sector showed overall strength, with notable gains from companies such as Sunac China, which rose over 12% at one point and closed up over 6%. Other companies like Country Garden, Vanke, and New World Development also saw increases of over 3% [5][7] - The banking sector performed well, with Minsheng Bank rising over 3% and several other banks, including Postal Savings Bank and Bank of China, gaining over 1% [8][10] Company-Specific Developments - Xinda International Holdings experienced a significant surge, with a rise of 66% at one point and closing up over 29%. This increase is attributed to the merger of CICC with Xinda Securities and Dongxing Securities, which aims to enhance the company's capabilities and shareholder returns [10] - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Baidu and Kuaishou rising over 2%, while companies like Xiaomi and Bilibili fell over 2% [11] Investment Outlook - CITIC Securities noted that the Hong Kong stock market remains undervalued compared to other major global markets, with a current ERP of 5.7%. The market is expected to benefit from the influx of quality A-share companies listing in Hong Kong and the ongoing narrative around AI, leading to a potential recovery in valuations and performance by 2026 [13]

证券 时报·数据宝统计，今日有4个行业主力资金净流入，27个行业主力资金净流出。资金净流入金额最 大的行业为 银行 ，涨跌幅0.86%，整体换手率0.46%，成交量较前一个交易日变动61.50%，主力资金净 流量21.88亿元；今日资金净流出最大的行业为电力设备，涨跌幅-1.96%，整体换手率3.75%，成交量较 前一个交易日变动-1.72%，主力资金净流量-90.59亿元。（数据宝） | 家用电 | 12.17 | -13.18 | 1.59 | 0.17 | -11.10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 器 | | | | | | | 农林牧 | 38.15 | 24.23 | 4.06 | -0.77 | -14.48 | | 渔 | | | | | | | 传媒 | 43.13 | -21.96 | 2.93 | -0.94 | -22.43 | | 有色金 属 | 54.36 | -8.30 | 2.42 | -0.41 | -22.44 | | 机械设 备 | 59.77 | -15.88 | 2.18 | -0.80 | -25.21 | | ...

个股方面，全天资金净流入的个股共有1470只，净流入在1000万元以上的有503只，其中，净流入资金 超亿元的有82只，净流入资金最多的是新易盛，今日上涨1.66%，全天资金净流入9.73亿元，其次是大 众公用、方正科技等，净流入资金分别为8.55亿元、8.50亿元。资金净流出超亿元的有157只，净流出资 金规模居前的个股为香农芯创、多氟多、宁德时代，分别净流出资金13.09亿、12.14亿、8.08亿元。 （数据宝） 行业资金流向方面，今日有4个行业主力资金净流入，银行行业主力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日 上涨0.86%，全天净流入资金21.88亿元，其次是通信行业，日涨幅为0.51%，净流入资金为10.00亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有27个，电力设备行业主力资金净流出规模居首，今日下跌1.96%，全天净流出 资金90.59亿元，其次是电子行业，今日跌幅为0.76%，净流出资金为55.82亿元，净流出资金较多的还 有计算机、国防军工、汽车等行业。 今日各行业资金流向 | 行业 | 日涨跌幅（%） | 资金流向（亿元） | 行业 | 日涨跌幅（%） | 资金流向（亿元） | | --- | --- | - ...

九牧王大幅异动 A股今日（11月20日）高开低走，尾盘全线跳水，创业板指、科创50指数等跌超1%。 具体来看，沪指早盘强势震荡，尾盘跳水走低；创业板指、科创50指数等大幅下探。截至收盘，沪指跌 0.4%报3931.05点，深证成指跌0.76%报12980.82点，创业板指跌1.12%报3042.34点，科创50、北证50指 数均跌超1%，沪深北三市合计成交17227亿元，较此前一日减少约200亿元。 场内超3800股飘绿，石油、煤炭、化工等资源股走低，旅游餐饮、食品饮料、零售等消费股集体下挫； 银行板块再度拉升，中国银行涨4%，续创历史新高；锂矿概念持续活跃，争光股份20%涨停，三达膜 涨近14%；海南自贸概念活跃，海南海药涨停；PCB概念上扬，中富电路、东材科技等涨停；值得注意 的是，今日复牌的合富中国再度涨停，近15个交易日累计大涨超290%；近日6连板的九牧王（601566） 大幅异动，盘中上演"天地天"走势。 港股方面，信达国际控股涨近30%，盘中一度暴涨超66%；中国信达涨超6%；宁德时代跌超5%。 银行板块强势 银行板块今日再度走强，截至收盘，中国银行涨4%续创历史新高，建设银行、邮储银行涨逾3% ...

Core Insights - The state-owned large bank sector saw an increase of 0.89% on November 20, with China Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Bank Performance Summary - China Bank (601988) closed at 6.24, up 4.00%, with a trading volume of 7.232 million shares and a transaction value of 4.501 billion [1] - Construction Bank (656109) closed at 9.82, up 3.15%, with a trading volume of 2.242 million shares and a transaction value of 2.195 billion [1] - Postal Savings Bank (601658) closed at 5.91, up 3.14%, with a trading volume of 3.163 million shares and a transaction value of 1.858 billion [1] - Transportation Bank (601328) closed at 7.65, up 1.59%, with a trading volume of 2.688 million shares and a transaction value of 2.056 billion [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank (601398) closed at 8.27, up 0.49%, with a trading volume of 3.595 million shares and a transaction value of 2.984 billion [1] - Agricultural Bank (601288) closed at 8.16, down 0.73%, with a trading volume of 3.089 million shares and a transaction value of 2.533 billion [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The state-owned large bank sector experienced a net inflow of 624 million in main funds, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 372 million [1] - The main fund inflows and outflows for individual banks are as follows: - Postal Savings Bank: 250 million inflow, 8.46% outflow from retail [2] - Construction Bank: 211 million inflow, 5.63% outflow from retail [2] - Transportation Bank: 200 million inflow, 7.11% outflow from retail [2] - Industrial and Commercial Bank: 165 million inflow, 2.81% outflow from retail [2] - China Bank: 51.74 million outflow, 0.22% outflow from retail [2] - Agricultural Bank: 150.7 million outflow, 3.32% inflow from retail [2]

Core Insights - The banking sector saw a rise of 0.81% on November 20, with Minsheng Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Banking Sector Performance - Minsheng Bank's stock price increased by 2.69% to 4.20, with a trading volume of 8.59 million shares and a transaction value of 3.597 billion [1] - Other notable banks included: - Everbright Bank: closed at 3.67, up 1.94%, with a transaction value of 1.901 billion [1] - Huaxia Bank: closed at 7.11, up 1.86%, with a transaction value of 975 million [1] - Zhejiang Commercial Bank: closed at 3.16, up 1.61%, with a transaction value of 1.067 billion [1] - CITIC Bank: closed at 8.15, up 1.37%, with a transaction value of 655 million [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The banking sector experienced a net inflow of 1.074 billion from main funds, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 451 million [1] - Main fund inflows for specific banks included: - Minsheng Bank: 3.03 billion, with a net outflow from retail investors of 1.10 billion [2] - China Merchants Bank: 2.55 billion, with a net outflow from retail investors of 1.12 billion [2] - Everbright Bank: 1.955 billion from main funds, but a net outflow of 775.33 million from retail investors [2]

Core Insights - The rural commercial bank sector experienced a rise of 0.95% on November 20, with Qingnong Commercial Bank leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3931.05, down 0.4%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12980.82, down 0.76% [1] Stock Performance - Qingnong Commercial Bank (002958) closed at 3.25, up 1.88% with a trading volume of 979,600 shares and a transaction value of 317 million yuan [1] - Zijin Bank (601860) closed at 2.88, up 1.41% with a trading volume of 655,100 shares and a transaction value of 188 million yuan [1] - Ruifeng Bank (601528) closed at 5.64, up 1.26% with a trading volume of 202,200 shares and a transaction value of 114 million yuan [1] - Other notable performances include: - Hunan Commercial Bank (601825) up 1.12% - Zhangjiagang Bank (002839) up 1.09% - Jiangyin Bank (002807) up 0.83% [1] Capital Flow - The rural commercial bank sector saw a net inflow of 41.89 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 24.95 million yuan [1] - Main fund inflows were led by Zijin Bank with 21.16 million yuan and Jiangyin Bank with 20.85 million yuan [2] - Retail fund outflows were significant in Zijin Bank (-15.92 million yuan) and Jiangyin Bank (-14.52 million yuan) [2]

证券之星消息，11月20日城商行板块较上一交易日上涨0.48%，XD南京银领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3931.05，下跌0.4%。深证成指报收于12980.82，下跌0.76%。城商行板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6000000 | XD南京银 | 11.37 | 1.52% | 51.66万 | | 5.87亿 | | 601997 | 贵阳银行 | 6.16 | 1.48% | 51.73万 | | 3.18亿 | | 002936 | 郑州银行 | 2.07 | 1.47% | 202.93万 | | 4.18亿 | | 601169 | 北京银行 | 5.82 | 1.39% | 353.55万 | | 20.61亿 | | 002948 | 青岛银行 | 4.89 | 1.24% | 50.86万 | | 2.48亿 | | 001227 | 兰州银行 | 2.45 | 1.24% | 110.72万 | | 2.70亿 | | ...

杜晓宇 陈楚仪 腾讯金融研究院 在实践推进过程中，金融机构普遍遵循三项原则，目标指向提质增效。一是风险可控优先。聚焦幻觉风险 可控、信息边界清晰的场景开展应用，强化风险前置识别与防护。二是内部提效优先。率先面向技术研 发、运营管理等中后台流程落地应用，便于快速验证技术成效。三是辅助决策优先。强调赋能员工而非岗 位替代，通过工具化手段提升分析判断效率。 银行业发挥头雁效应，在应用深度与广度上保持领先。银行机构正在加大资本支出和研发投入力度，发挥 其场景广泛覆盖的优势，持续夯实技术底座、保障落地成效。从短期来看，代码助手、智能问答等成熟场 景快速释放效率红利，部分机构已有超过30%的代码由AI生成；从长期来看，AI应用正向智能投顾、一线 营销赋能等核心创收领域拓展。 技术普惠正在重塑行业竞争格局，为中小金融机构提供了换道发展的窗口。随着DeepSeek、腾讯混元等高 性能模型的开源与普及，AI应用的资金和技术门槛显著降低。中小机构可以将资源聚焦于特定业务场景与 私域数据价值挖掘，形成差异化优势，其关键在于战略聚焦与组织灵活性。例如，依托决策链条短等特 点，深耕供应链金融、特定客群财富管理等垂直领域，并与领先大模型 ...