Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current market for thermal coal is stable, with port prices holding steady at 770 RMB/ton. The supply side shows an increase in daily average inflow to 1.9057 million tons, up 11.79% week-on-week, while daily average outflow rose to 2.0233 million tons, an increase of 18.40% [1][2] - As the northern regions enter the heating season, electricity consumption is expected to rise, while southern regions see a decline in power load. With sufficient inventory, coal prices are anticipated to remain volatile [2] - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy due to their low valuations and elasticity in thermal coal production [3][37] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,954.79 points, down 1.05% week-on-week, while the coal sector index fell by 0.78% to 2,943.60 points [11] 2. Thermal Coal Prices - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port remained stable at 770 RMB/ton. Prices for different grades of thermal coal varied, with some regions experiencing price increases [17][19] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The inventory at the four ports in the Bohai Rim decreased to 23.169 million tons, down 3.34% week-on-week. The number of anchored vessels increased to 109, reflecting a 17.00% rise [32][27] 4. International Prices - International thermal coal prices showed slight increases, with the Newcastle coal price index rising by 0.59 USD/ton to 103.74 USD/ton [19] 5. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests a preference for resource stocks in the current market environment [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] Report's Core View - Currently at the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with the resonance of fundamentals and policies, it is advisable to allocate the coal sector at low levels. The coal price is expected to rise in the new round, and the supply limitation and low inventory may amplify the price volatility elasticity. The coal sector investment is both offensive and defensive with high cost - effectiveness, and it is recommended to focus on the current allocation opportunities [5][13] Summary by Directory I. This Week's Core View and Key Concerns - **Core View**: The current situation is at the start of a new upward cycle in the coal economy. The supply capacity utilization of sample power and coking coal mines decreased this week. The daily coal consumption in inland 17 provinces and coastal 8 provinces declined. The coal price in Qinhuangdao Port and the main coking coal price in Jingtang Port remained flat. The coal price is expected to rise with the approaching peak season, and the coal assets are cost - effective. It is recommended to allocate at low levels [5][13] - **Key Concerns**: From January to September 2025, the national coal mining and washing industry's revenue and profit decreased year - on - year. The national power generation installed capacity increased, but the average utilization hours decreased. The international market coal price rose to the highest level in the past two months [15] II. This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector fell 0.43% this week, underperforming the market. The CSI 300 fell 0.43%. The top three sectors in terms of gain were basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, and consumer services [16] - The power coal sector fell 0.27%, the coking coal sector fell 2.23%, and the coke sector rose 2.77% [18] - The top three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Huaihe Energy (7.49%), Dianchi Energy (3.23%), and Shanghai Energy (2.60%) [21] III. Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of October 31, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 693 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 685 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term agreement price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 676 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month [25] - **Thermal Coal Price**: As of November 1, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) produced in Shanxi was 768 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The pit - mouth price of Shaanxi Yulin thermal lump coal (Q6000) was 710 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The FOB spot price of Newcastle NEWC5500 kcal thermal coal was 75.5 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton week - on - week [31] - **Coking Coal Price**: As of October 31, the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The FOB price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal at the Chinese port of destination was 211.7 dollars/ton, up 3.9 dollars/ton week - on - week [33] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price**: As of October 31, the wagon - loading price of Jiaozuo anthracite was 990 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The wagon - loading price of pulverized coal in Changzhi Lucheng and Yangquan increased week - on - week [42] IV. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of October 31, the capacity utilization of sample power coal mines was 90.5%, down 0.5 percentage points week - on - week. The capacity utilization of sample coking coal mines was 84.78%, down 0.3 percentage points week - on - week [49] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of October 31, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal thermal coal was - 59.6 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price difference for 4000 - kcal thermal coal was - 55.1 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton week - on - week [45] - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces' coal inventory increased by 142.60 million tons week - on - week, daily consumption decreased by 19.20 million tons/day week - on - week, and available days increased by 2 days. Coastal 8 provinces' coal inventory increased by 10.80 million tons week - on - week, daily consumption decreased by 0.20 million tons/day week - on - week, and available days increased by 0.1 days [50] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: As of October 31, the Myspic comprehensive steel price index was 122.4 points, up 1.32 points week - on - week. The national blast furnace operating rate was 81.8%, down 2.96 percentage points week - on - week [68][69] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: As of October 31, the urea prices in Hubei and Guangdong increased, while that in Northeast China decreased. The national methanol, ethylene glycol, and acetic acid price indices decreased, while the synthetic ammonia and cement price indices increased. The cement clinker capacity utilization rate was 62.5%, down 1.3 percentage points week - on - week. The chemical weekly coal consumption increased by 11.71 million tons/day week - on - week [71][73] V. Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: As of October 31, the coal inventory in Qinhuangdao Port was 575 million tons, up 25 million tons week - on - week. The thermal coal inventory in 55 ports was 6318.8 million tons, up 132 million tons week - on - week. The thermal coal inventory of 462 sample mines was 295.1 million tons, up 1.6 million tons week - on - week [89] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of October 31, the coking coal inventory in production areas was 164.5 million tons, down 25 million tons week - on - week. The coking coal inventory in six ports was 290.2 million tons, up 14.5 million tons week - on - week [90] - **Coke Inventory**: As of October 31, the total coke inventory of coking plants was 37.5 million tons, up 0.0 million tons week - on - week. The total coke inventory of four ports was 211.1 million tons, up 11.0 million tons week - on - week. The total coke inventory of domestic sample steel mills was 629.05 million tons, down 4.11 million tons week - on - week [92] VI. Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of October 31, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1966 points, down 25 points week - on - week. The average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway this week was 130.1 million tons, up 29.91 million tons week - on - week [106] - **Cargo - to - Ship Ratio in Four Bohai Rim Ports**: As of October 31, the inventory of four Bohai Rim ports was 1397.9 million tons, down 33 million tons week - on - week. The number of anchored ships was 79, down 21 week - on - week. The cargo - to - ship ratio was 17.7, up 3.39 week - on - week [104] VII. Weather Situation - As of October 31, the Three Gorges出库流量 was 15500 cubic meters per second, down 1.27% week - on - week. In the next 10 days, there will be more precipitation in many areas, and some areas will have more precipitation than usual. There will be more rainy days in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places in the next 10 days, and the long - term precipitation and temperature outlook is also provided [111] VIII. Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table shows the closing prices, net profits attributable to the parent company, EPS, and P/E ratios of key listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [112] - **This Week's Key Announcements**: Gansu Energy plans to set up a new coal - washing subsidiary. Guanghui Energy's controlling shareholder pledged shares. China National Coal Group participated in a central enterprise strategic emerging fund. Suzhou Energy's project unit was put into operation. Huaihe Energy's asset acquisition transaction will be reviewed [113][114][115][116][117]

Group 1: Metal Sector - Tianshan Aluminum's net profit forecast for 2025 is 47.71 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 13.24[10] - Luoyang Molybdenum's net profit is projected to reach 194.40 billion CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 19.02[10] Group 2: Building Materials - Huaxin Cement's net profit for 2025 is estimated at 29.38 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 13.83[10] - China National Materials' net profit is expected to grow to 19.36 billion CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 30.63[10] Group 3: Transportation - Eastern Airlines Logistics is projected to have a net profit of 26.46 billion CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 9.41[10] - COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers' net profit is expected to be 19.77 billion CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 10.19[10] Group 4: Chemical Sector - Boryuan Chemical's net profit forecast for 2025 is 14.67 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 17.19[10] - Yara International's net profit is projected to reach 21.09 billion CNY in 2025, with a PE ratio of 18.58[10] Group 5: Energy Sector - Guotou Power's net profit for 2025 is estimated at 69.48 billion CNY, with a PE ratio of 16.67[10] - Shouhua Gas is expected to turn around with a net profit of 0.42 billion CNY in 2025, after a loss in 2024[10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Views - The coal mining industry is expected to perform well during the winter peak season, despite low production levels [2] - The supply of thermal coal has slightly increased, with port prices remaining stable at 770 RMB/ton as of October 31 [4][14] - The overall coal supply-demand situation remains favorable, with expectations of strong support for coal prices due to seasonal demand [7][72] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Supply has slightly rebounded, with port coal prices stable at 770 RMB/ton [14][15] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increased by 0.37 percentage points, mainly due to the resumption of previously halted mines [14][19] - Daily coal consumption at coastal and inland power plants decreased by 0.2 and 19.2 thousand tons respectively [14][22] - Power plant inventories are lower than last year, which may lead to increased replenishment demand if a cold winter materializes [14][31] Coking Coal - Coking coal production capacity utilization decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 84.2% due to inspections and underground issues in some mines [5][39] - The average daily crossing volume at Ganqimaodu port has recovered to over 1,000 trucks, indicating improved logistics [5][43] - Coking coal prices at ports remained stable at 1,760 RMB/ton as of October 31 [5][40] Coke - The supply of coke is stable, with the implementation of price increases, although profit margins for coke producers remain limited due to high coking coal prices [6][52] - The average daily pig iron production decreased by 3.54 thousand tons to 236.31 thousand tons, impacting demand for coke [6][58] - Coke prices at the Rizhao port increased to 1,580 RMB/ton, reflecting a positive trend in the market [6][53] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights several key companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which are expected to perform well due to their strong cash flow and market positioning [7][9] - The report emphasizes the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in light of recent government support and market conditions [7][74]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Views - India's coking coal imports increased by 6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 FY2026, reflecting growth in the steel industry's capacity and output [2] - Future months are expected to see increased coking coal import demand due to replenishment needs post-monsoon [3] - Key investment recommendations include companies with strong performance elasticity such as Yancoal Energy, Jinkong Coal Industry, and those focused on smart mining like Keda Automation [3] Summary by Sections Coal Mining - In Q2 FY2026, India imported 16.9 million tons of coking coal, up from 16 million tons in Q1, with Australia being the largest supplier at 9.7 million tons, a 14.1% increase [2] - Coking coal prices at major ports showed slight increases, with Newcastle port at $112.7 per ton (+1.85%) and European ARA ports at $97.15 per ton (+1.20%) [1][35] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - China Qinfa (00866.HK) - Buy, EPS forecast for 2026E is 0.27 [7] - Jiangxi Tungsten (600397.SH) - Buy, EPS forecast for 2026E is 0.03 [7] - China Shenhua (601088.SH) - Buy, EPS forecast for 2026E is 2.71 [7] - Jinkong Coal Industry (601001.SH) - Buy, EPS forecast for 2026E is 1.47 [7] - Yancoal Energy (600188.SH) - Buy, EPS forecast for 2026E is 1.18 [7] - Zhongmei Energy (601898.SH) - Buy, EPS forecast for 2026E is 1.29 [7] - Shaanxi Coal (601225.SH) - Buy, EPS forecast for 2026E is 1.86 [7] Market Trends - The report indicates a marginal increase in coal demand, with a focus on the recovery of coal power generation as seasonal demand begins to rise [37]

11月5日下午 北京 · 中国大饭店 · 多功能厅1 13:30-14:00 ● 14:45-15:15 量找产业链中高需求、高壁垒、高盈利卓越龙头 韩其成-国泰海通证券建筑工程研究首席分析师 ● 15:15-15:45 潮平两岸阔，风正一帆悬! 涂力磊-国泰海通证券研究所所长助理、先进制造研 究组组长、房地产研究首席、中小市值与创新股权 研究联席首席分析师 ● 14:00-14:45 房价趋势判断 -- 行业2026年基本面看法 李彦国-冰山指数创始人 圆桌论坛: 反内卷下钢铁、煤炭、石化行业的投资机会 李鹏飞-国泰海通证券钢铁研究首席分析师 黄 涛-国泰海通证券煤炭开采研究首席分析师 朱军军-国泰海通证券石油化工研究联席首席分析师 2026年电价影响因素 吴 杰-国泰海通证券公用事业研究首席分析师 全球大宗增产周期下的航运投资机会 岳 鑫-国泰海通证券交通运输研究首席分析师 *参会请联系您的 国泰海通对口销售报名 更多国泰海通研究和服务 亦可联系对口销售获取 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国 ...

Core Points - The stock price of Shanmei International (600546) closed at 11.04 yuan, down 0.18% from the previous week, with a market capitalization of 21.886 billion yuan [1] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 12.97% to 71,900, with an average shareholding value of 269,900 yuan [2][5] - The company's Q3 2025 report shows a 30.2% year-on-year decline in revenue to 15.332 billion yuan and a 49.74% drop in net profit to 1.046 billion yuan [3][5] - Shanmei International's subsidiaries acquired coal production capacity replacement indicators for 2.1 million tons/year at a total price of 302.4372 million yuan [4][5] Shareholder Changes - The number of shareholders decreased by 1.07 million, representing a 12.97% reduction [2][5] - The average number of shares held per shareholder increased from 24,000 to 27,600 shares [2] Performance Disclosure - For the first three quarters of 2025, the main revenue was 15.332 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.2% year-on-year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.046 billion yuan, down 49.74% year-on-year [3] - The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 5.673 billion yuan, a decline of 28.27% year-on-year [3] Company Announcements - Shanmei International's subsidiaries successfully bid for coal production capacity replacement indicators totaling 2.1 million tons/year for 302.4372 million yuan [4][5] - The transaction is considered a related party transaction and has been approved by the board of directors [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shaanxi Coal Industry is a leading domestic thermal coal enterprise with a complete coal production and sales system, showcasing significant cost and resource advantages [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Shaanxi Coal Industry achieved a revenue of 1180.83 billion, ranking 2nd in the industry, surpassing the industry average of 380.4 billion and the median of 91.67 billion, with China Shenhua leading at 2131.51 billion [2] - The net profit for the same period was 199.32 billion, also ranking 2nd in the industry, exceeding the industry average of 57.34 billion and the median of 7.43 billion, with China Shenhua at 469.22 billion [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, the debt-to-asset ratio for Shaanxi Coal Industry was 42.17%, an increase from 34.29% year-on-year, but still below the industry average of 49.56% [3] - The gross profit margin for the same period was 28.19%, down from 34.76% year-on-year, yet higher than the industry average of 23.03% [3] Group 3: Management and Shareholder Information - The chairman, Zhao Futang, and the general manager, Zhao Wenge, saw an increase in compensation, with Zhao Wenge's salary rising by 97,300 to 935,200 in 2024 [4] - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 2.07% to 105,000, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per household decreased by 2.02% to 92,300 [5] Group 4: Investment Insights - According to Cinda Securities, despite a decline in performance, Shaanxi Coal Industry has several business highlights, including stable coal production and sales, robust cost control, and a strong power business with significant growth potential [6] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 174 billion, 188 billion, and 193 billion from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [6]

Core Viewpoint - Kaichuan Co., Ltd. is a significant player in the domestic coal industry, with a comprehensive business model that includes coal mining, processing, and sales, as well as coking and coal chemical products, indicating strong investment potential [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Kaichuan's revenue reached 12.944 billion yuan, ranking 7th in the industry, while the industry leader, Huai Bei Mining, reported revenue of 31.841 billion yuan [2] - The net profit for the same period was 189 million yuan, placing the company 9th in the industry, with the top performer, Shanxi Coking Coal, achieving a net profit of 1.93 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Kaichuan's debt-to-asset ratio was 43.06%, lower than the previous year's 44.28% and below the industry average of 53.50%, indicating good solvency [3] - The gross profit margin for the period was 11.15%, down from 12.71% year-on-year and below the industry average of 22.28%, suggesting a need for improvement in profitability [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 9.90% to 37,700, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per account increased by 10.99% to 42,200 [5] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Huatai-PineBridge SSE Dividend ETF ranked third with 53.304 million shares, an increase of 2.9824 million shares from the previous period [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Q3 performance has improved sequentially, with a focus on the recovery of coking coal prices and high dividends. Despite year-on-year pressure on performance, the company shows signs of recovery with improved coal prices and sales volume in Q3 [3][4] - The company has adjusted its pricing model from quarterly to monthly, allowing for more flexibility in responding to market changes and quicker transmission of price increases [5] - The company is expected to benefit from asset injections from the Shanxi Coking Coal Group, enhancing its production capacity [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 27.175 billion yuan, down 17.88% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.434 billion yuan, down 49.62% year-on-year [3] - In Q3 alone, the company reported operating revenue of 9.122 billion yuan, a sequential increase of 1.04%, and a net profit of 420 million yuan, a sequential increase of 26.3% [3] - The company has revised its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.27 billion, 2.60 billion, and 3.00 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.40, 0.46, and 0.53 yuan [3][4] Price and Market Dynamics - The main coking coal price has rebounded from approximately 1,150 yuan/ton in June to nearly 1,400 yuan/ton in September, indicating a significant recovery [4] - The company aims to reduce its annual cost by about 10%, which has helped mitigate some of the impacts from falling prices [4] Dividend Policy - The company has a strong willingness and capability for high dividends, with an average payout ratio of nearly 70% from 2021 to 2023. In the first half of 2025, it implemented a mid-term dividend for the first time, with a payout ratio of about 20% [5]