Economic Indicators - In September, the US manufacturing PMI fell to 52, while the services PMI dropped to 53.9, indicating a slight slowdown in economic expansion [2] - The composite PMI also decreased to 53.6, marking the lowest level since June 2025, with new orders and employment indices declining [2] - Despite the slowdown, consumer spending remains resilient, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may help prevent a recession [3] Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation in China has released a draft for public consultation on the basic requirements for food delivery platforms, focusing on service management and fee transparency [4] - The draft aims to regulate platform fees and promotional behaviors to prevent unfair competition and ensure food safety [4][5] Energy Consumption - In August, China's total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, with the manufacturing sector showing the highest growth at 5.5% [6] - The electricity demand growth reflects a robust economic recovery, although supply challenges remain due to mismatches in demand and supply timing [7] Computing Industry Initiatives - Hubei Province plans to develop a computing industry cluster, aiming for a total computing power of 25 EFLOPS by 2027, with a focus on integrating computing with optical communication and chip industries [8] - The measures encourage the development of a diverse computing infrastructure and aim to avoid homogeneous competition among cities [9] Labor Market Concerns - A survey indicates that 24% of young employees in the US and Europe are very concerned about potential job loss due to AI, compared to only 10% of older workers [10] - The rise of AI technology presents both challenges and opportunities for young workers, who may leverage AI to enhance their skills and productivity [11] Agricultural Sector Trends - The price of live pigs has dropped significantly, with a 10.4% decrease from early September and a 24.4% decline from the peak in February, reflecting an oversupply in the market [12] - Despite short-term measures to control production, the long-term outlook for the pig farming industry suggests a need for reduced production capacity to balance supply and demand [13] Stock Market Performance - On September 24, the stock market saw a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.83% and the ChiNext Index reaching a three-year high [14] - The semiconductor sector continued to perform strongly, driven by developments in AI and chip demand, while consumer sectors like tourism showed weakness [15]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates a continuous decline in pig prices, with the average price falling below 14 yuan/kg in August and reaching a three-year low of 12.82 yuan/kg by September 19. The government is committed to reducing production capacity and stabilizing pig prices, which will shape the industry's future dynamics [1][2][3]. Industry Supply and Demand Performance - In August, pig prices continued to decline, with average prices dropping below 14 yuan/kg. By September 19, the average price of live pigs was 12.82 yuan/kg, marking the lowest level in three years [1][2]. - The supply side saw a significant increase in market pressure due to a concentration of sales from smallholders, leading to a notable price drop. High temperatures in August also suppressed consumer demand, resulting in weak sales [2]. - The number of breeding sows was reported at 40.42 million in July, showing a slight decrease. Data indicates a mixed trend in breeding sow inventory, with some samples showing growth while others indicate a decline [2]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - A meeting held on September 16 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the government's commitment to reducing production capacity and stabilizing pig prices. Clear regulatory targets were set for breeding stock and slaughter weights, with tighter funding and environmental measures [3]. - The short-term impact of these policies may increase supply pressure and lead to further price declines, but the long-term outlook suggests a potential recovery in pig prices by 2026 as inefficient production capacity is eliminated [3]. Future Market Outlook - The ongoing capacity regulation will remain a central theme in the industry, with expectations for the elimination of outdated production capacity. High-quality producers are likely to maintain profitability and benefit from improved margins post-regulation [4]. - The industry valuation is currently below historical averages, indicating a safety margin for investments. Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), Tian Kang Biological (002100.SZ), and Shennong Group (605296.SH) [4]. Sales Data of Listed Companies - In August, major companies reported a decline in average sales prices, with Muyuan Foods at 13.51 yuan/kg, Wens at 13.90 yuan/kg, Zhengbang Technology at 13.75 yuan/kg, and New Hope at 13.54 yuan/kg, reflecting changes of -5.52%, -4.66%, -3.91%, and -6.23% respectively [5]. - The sales volume for August showed a recovery, with Muyuan Foods selling 700,000 pigs, Wens 325,000, New Hope 134,000, and Zhengbang 67,000, representing increases of 10.17%, 2.56%, 2.71%, and a decrease of -3.67% respectively [5]. - The average weight of pigs sold also decreased, with Muyuan at 125.29 kg, Wens at 109.95 kg, and New Hope at 95.07 kg, indicating a continued trend of reduced weights in the industry [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [5]. Core Insights - In August 2025, pig prices continued to decline, with average prices for piglets, live pigs, and pork at 33.63 CNY/kg, 14.35 CNY/kg, and 24.98 CNY/kg respectively, showing month-on-month changes of -5.87%, -3.77%, and -1.52% [1][16]. - By September 19, 2025, the national average price for live pigs dropped to 12.82 CNY/kg, marking the lowest level in three years [1][16]. - The supply side saw a significant increase in market pressure due to a recovery in supply and concentrated selling by smallholders, leading to a notable price drop [1][18]. - Demand was suppressed by high temperatures in August, resulting in weak sales of pork products, with limited uplift from the back-to-school season [1][18]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported a slight decrease in the number of breeding sows to 40.42 million heads in July, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [22]. Summary by Sections Industry Supply and Demand - August saw a significant decline in pig prices, with the average price for live pigs falling below 14 CNY/kg [1][16]. - The supply pressure increased as smallholders concentrated their sales, leading to a clear price drop [1][18]. - Demand remained weak due to high temperatures affecting consumption [1][18]. Policy and Capacity Control - A meeting held on September 16 by the Ministry of Agriculture and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized strict capacity control measures, aiming to reduce the number of breeding sows by 1 million heads by January 2026 [2][22]. - The government aims to stabilize pig prices while reducing excess capacity, with short-term downward pressure on prices expected [2][22]. Market Performance and Company Insights - In August, major companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff, and New Hope reported average sales prices of 13.51 CNY/kg, 13.90 CNY/kg, and 13.54 CNY/kg respectively, all showing month-on-month declines [9][30]. - The total sales volume for listed pig farming companies increased by 6.48% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth of 28.44% [33][38]. - Companies with cost advantages, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff, are expected to maintain profitability and benefit from better earnings elasticity once price rebounds occur [27][40].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that both active and passive capacity reduction in the pig farming industry is expected to lead to an upward shift in the medium to long-term price center for pigs [11][12] - The supply-demand dynamics for grains are improving, with overall grain prices showing signs of recovery [20][24] Summary by Sections Pig Farming Industry - According to data from Pig Easy, the prices for pigs in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 are projected to be 15.06, 14.53, and 14.02 yuan per kilogram, reflecting year-on-year changes of +4.26%, -10.78%, and -28.22% respectively [11] - The report highlights that in the past 36 weeks, external piglet farming has only been profitable for 8 weeks, with an average loss of 58.50 yuan per head as of the third week of September [12] - In contrast, self-breeding and self-raising farming has been profitable for 35 weeks, with an average profit of 63.69 yuan per head [12] - The report suggests that the current average price of pigs has fallen below 13 yuan per kilogram, leading to losses for some farmers and initiating a proactive capacity reduction in the industry [12] Grain Industry - Since the beginning of 2025, prices for corn, wheat, soybeans, and japonica rice have shown significant recovery, with corn prices rising due to a decrease in imports and increased demand from pig farming [20] - For corn, the domestic spot prices in Q1, Q2, and Q3 of 2025 are 2196.63, 2348.12, and 2393.15 yuan per ton, with year-on-year changes of -10.69%, -3.50%, and -0.32% respectively [20] - Wheat prices have also shown a recovery trend, with Q1, Q2, and Q3 prices at 2410.83, 2444.25, and 2436.90 yuan per ton [22] - The report notes that the overall recovery in grain prices is expected to improve the supply-demand balance in the future [24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the agricultural sector, particularly in pig farming, where the price center is expected to rise due to policy guidance and industry restructuring [3] - Specific companies to watch include Lihua Co., Dekang Agriculture, Jingji Zhino, and Muyuan Foods in the pig farming sector [3][6] - For grain-related investments, companies with strong cost control such as Haida Group are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [6]

Macro News - Financial regulatory authorities announced a series of measures to support the stability of the capital market, which have shown effectiveness over the past year [1] - In August, the total market value of A-shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan, indicating the success of capital market reforms [1] - The capital market is expected to transition from being policy-driven to being driven by internal dynamics, better serving high-quality economic development [1] Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation has drafted a consultation document focusing on regulating platform fees and merchant entry in the food delivery sector, aiming to enhance service quality and reduce merchant burdens [4] - The draft prohibits platforms from forcing merchants to share promotional costs and mandates fair compensation for delivery personnel, including limits on working hours and fatigue alerts [4] - The National Energy Administration is addressing "involution" competition in the photovoltaic industry to promote quality upgrades and enhance the competitiveness of renewable energy sources [5] - The price of live pigs has reached a yearly low due to oversupply, with prices dropping to 12.59 yuan per kilogram, a 10.4% decrease from earlier in the month and a 24.4% drop from the year's peak [7][6] Sector Opportunities - A report from China International Capital Corporation indicates that the upgrade to 800V HVDC in AI power supply architecture may position SST as the optimal technology route, with certain companies already applying SST products in mixed microgrid projects [8] - CITIC Securities highlights that a significant reduction in breeding cows since 2024 has led to a shortage in supply, driving up live cattle prices, with expectations for continued price increases due to supply pressures anticipated by 2026 [8]

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of live pigs in the spot market are loose, and the price remains weak. Although demand has increased, the continuous increase is not obvious, and the supply pressure of slaughter is relatively greater. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to increase slightly, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts are mainly dragged down by the weak spot market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 23rd, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, then rose and fell back, fluctuating downward, and closed in the negative at the end of the session. The highest was 12,840 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,655 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,665 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.48% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 2,354 lots to 249,995 lots [9]. - **Spot Market**: On the 23rd, the average price of ternary pigs outside the country was 12.64 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day [9]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The utilization rate of the second - fattening pens remains high, the slaughter pressure is large, the slaughter progress at the end of the month accelerates, and the slaughter weight decreases slightly. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs before the Spring Festival may still maintain a slight growth trend [10]. - **Demand - Side Situation**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost is still low. Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Although the weather has turned cooler, the continuous increase in demand is not obvious, the sales of white strips are slow, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On September 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 154,000 heads, an increase of 8,000 heads from the previous day, 48,000 heads week - on - week, and 129,000 heads month - on - month [10]. 2. Industry News - As of September 18th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 7.7 yuan/head, a decrease of 46 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 246.6 yuan/head, a decrease of 70.8 yuan/head week - on - week [11][13] 3. Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of September 18th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 358 yuan/head, a decrease of 36 yuan/head from the previous week [17]. - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: In the week of September 18th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.16 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.03 yuan/jin week - on - week [17]. - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 12.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 12.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week [17]. - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: In the week of September 18th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 31.77%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous week and 2.22 percentage points year - on - year. The weekly operating rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 31.54 - 31.80 [17]. - **National Average Slaughter Weight of Live Pigs**: As of the week of September 18th, the national average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.45 kg, an increase of 0.13 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% [17].

Core Viewpoint - The current stage of the pig cycle indicates a potential turning point for the pig farming industry, with prices expected to continue declining in the short term, leading to a likely acceleration in capacity reduction [1][2][5] Industry Analysis - The pig price has been on a downward trend since August 2024, with current prices around 13 CNY/kg, yet leading companies remain profitable due to cost control measures [1] - The overall pig farming industry is approaching a breakeven point, with major players reducing costs below 12 CNY/kg, indicating that many farms are now operating at a loss [1][2] - The number of breeding sows has been increasing, suggesting ongoing supply pressure, which is likely to keep pig prices under pressure in the short term [1][2] - The industry is entering a phase of active capacity reduction, driven by both voluntary and involuntary factors, including policy enforcement and market conditions [2][5] Policy Impact - Recent policy measures are being implemented to control production capacity, with major companies expected to reduce output by 1 million pigs by the end of the year [2][6] - The industry is moving towards comprehensive capacity management, with penalties for non-compliance including the cessation of subsidies and credit [2][6] Market Dynamics - The pig farming sector is experiencing consolidation, with large-scale farms now accounting for 70% of the market share, as smaller players exit due to high costs and regulatory challenges [6] - The focus of large enterprises is shifting from expansion to cost reduction and efficiency improvement, indicating a more rational and gradual process of capacity reduction [6] Investment Opportunities - The livestock ETF is highlighted as a preferred investment tool, tracking the livestock index and covering various segments of the industry, with a significant portion of its assets in leading pig farming companies [7]

Group 1: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery Industry - The pig industry has entered a loss-making phase, with the latest weekly pig price at 13.15 CNY/kg, down 0.37 CNY/kg from the previous week, indicating significant pressure from weak consumption and supply backlog [2][6][7] - The average weight of pigs at slaughter is 128.45 kg, with 15 kg piglets priced at 358 CNY/head, reflecting severe losses in the piglet segment [2][6] - The industry is undergoing profound policy transformation aimed at protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation, with a focus on solution-oriented companies [7][8] - The chicken industry faces a persistent contradiction of high production capacity and weak consumption, leading to a potential increase in market share for leading companies [8] - Recommendations include focusing on cost-efficient leading companies in the pig sector such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as Hai Da Group in the feed sector [2][9] Group 2: Construction and Building Materials - Infrastructure investment in China has shown moderate growth, with cumulative investment from January to August reaching 11.58 trillion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [14][15] - The power, heat, gas, and water supply sectors have seen a cumulative year-on-year growth of 18.80%, continuing to lead various sectors [14][15] - The report suggests a focus on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks in the construction sector, recommending companies like Jianghe Group and Sichuan Road and Bridge [18] Group 3: North Exchange and Smart Driving Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan to promote the industrial application of smart connected vehicles, emphasizing the importance of smart technology development [20][21] - The market for automotive-grade SoC chips is expected to reach 38.1 billion CNY by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 42.7% [20][21] - The report identifies 11 companies in the North Exchange that are part of the smart driving industry chain, highlighting their potential for growth [21] Group 4: Longhong Energy - Longhong Energy specializes in alkaline and lithium-ion batteries, with a projected net profit of 197.18 million CNY in 2024 [25][27] - The company is expanding its production capacity with new plants in Thailand and is focusing on high-performance battery technologies [27][28] - The report highlights the growth potential in the smart home and IoT sectors, with the smart home market expected to exceed 800 billion CNY by 2025 [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and implications of the school meal supply business in Shanghai, particularly focusing on the company Green Express Foods and its connections to New Hope Group, highlighting the financial strategies and challenges faced by the latter in a changing market environment [5][6][21]. Group 1: Financial Insights - The Shanghai school meal market is valued at only 1.5 billion, which seems insignificant compared to New Hope's annual revenue of 140 billion, yet it presents lucrative financial opportunities through prepayment models and cost control [7][9]. - Green Express Foods serves 500,000 students, with a prepayment model that allows the company to maintain a cash flow of 200 million, generating an annual financial return of 6 million without interest [7][8]. - The gross profit margin for school meals can reach 60%, with operational costs kept low through economies of scale, as the company employs 1,567 staff to serve approximately 320 students each [7][8]. Group 2: Corporate Structure and Strategy - Green Express Foods operates under a complex ownership structure, with its sole shareholder being a Hong Kong company, which raises questions about accountability and transparency in the face of public complaints [11][14]. - The intricate ownership arrangement allows New Hope to maintain a degree of separation from the operational issues faced by Green Express Foods, complicating any potential accountability for service quality [20][21]. - New Hope's strategic shift towards the school meal business is seen as a response to significant losses in its traditional pig farming operations, with the school meal business providing a stable cash flow amidst financial pressures [9][21][27]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - New Hope's traditional business has faced severe challenges, with significant losses reported over the past three years, prompting a need for diversification into more stable revenue streams like school meals [22][23]. - The competitive landscape shows that while New Hope struggles, other companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs have successfully rebounded, highlighting the urgency for New Hope to adapt [22][23]. - The school meal business is positioned as a gateway to broader consumer markets, allowing New Hope to leverage data from 500,000 families for future ventures in prepared foods and community services [27][28]. Group 4: Leadership and Legacy - The generational shift in leadership at New Hope reflects a broader trend among Chinese entrepreneurs, where the founder's traditional values clash with the newer generation's focus on capital markets and global strategies [30][31]. - The article emphasizes the irony of a company that once aimed to improve food quality for the masses now being criticized for the quality of meals provided to children, showcasing a disconnect between its founding principles and current operations [33].

Core Viewpoint - He Feng Co., Ltd. is facing significant financial challenges despite recent revenue growth, with increasing debt levels and declining asset quality due to market pressures in the livestock and feed sectors [1][2][3][4][6][7]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - The controlling shareholder's action person, Wang Fengjiu, reduced holdings by 6 million shares, decreasing the combined shareholding of the controlling shareholder and action persons from 32.40% to 31.74% [1]. - According to the reduction plan, Wang Fengjiu and Shao Caimei plan to reduce a total of 2.19% of shares, with potential further reductions of 1.53% [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, He Feng Co., Ltd. reported a revenue increase of 16.27% to 17.407 billion yuan, with a net profit of 233 million yuan, marking a return to profitability [2][6]. - However, the company’s asset-liability ratio increased by 6.81 percentage points year-on-year to 56.38%, with short-term interest-bearing liabilities rising by 116% to 2.505 billion yuan and long-term interest-bearing liabilities increasing by 17.73% to 3.512 billion yuan [2][4]. Group 3: Operational Challenges - The company experienced a net cash outflow of 512 million yuan from operating activities in the first half of 2024, primarily due to increased payments for goods and services [4]. - He Feng Co., Ltd. has seen significant growth in accounts receivable (1.275 billion yuan, up 42.75%), inventory (4.414 billion yuan, up 57.14%), and accounts payable (2.382 billion yuan, up 46.17%) [3]. Group 4: Market Conditions - The livestock and feed sectors are under pressure due to low prices for pork and poultry, with the price of white feather chickens dropping to historical lows [6][7]. - The white feather chicken industry is facing overcapacity, with slaughtering capacity utilization below 75%, leading to increased fixed cost pressures [7]. - The pig farming sector is also experiencing declining prices, with the price dropping from over 20 yuan per kilogram to around 13 yuan, putting further pressure on profitability [7]. Group 5: Strategic Moves - He Feng Co., Ltd. has been expanding aggressively, acquiring stakes in 13 companies for 354 million yuan, but many of these companies are currently unprofitable [3][6]. - The company’s feed business contributed 38% of revenue, while the meat poultry segment contributed 35%, indicating a reliance on these sectors for income [6].