Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bullish trend in the lithium carbonate market is clear, but considering the recent rapid price increase, it is necessary to be vigilant against the resistance at the 90,000 yuan/ton mark and guard against potential subsequent correction risks [5]. - The core contradiction lies in the supply - demand mismatch. The arrival of more lithium concentrate at ports this month can ease the tight situation at the lithium ore end. The release of salt lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. The demand is currently strong, with the prices of core battery materials rising, and the downstream production schedule in November remaining highly prosperous [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 73,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 35.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 59.0% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: For the lithium carbonate futures, the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the main contract and weighted contract have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the closing price of the main contract is 86,540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 700 yuan (-0.80%) and a weekly increase of 7,980 yuan (10.16%) [8]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different contracts such as LC2601 - LC2603, LC2601 - LC2605, and LC2603 - LC2605 also show daily and weekly changes [8]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 28,099 lots, with a daily increase of 608 lots (2.21%) and a weekly increase of 1,609 lots (6.07%) [8]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotations**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminite have daily and weekly increases. For example, the latest average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 2,220 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan (1.83%) and a weekly increase of 105 yuan (4.96%) [24]. - **Carbonate/Hydroxide Lithium Prices**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, as well as different grades of lithium hydroxide, have daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 80,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,550 yuan (1.97%) and a weekly increase of 1,400 yuan (1.78%) [27]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The spreads such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, and the difference between CIF prices in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide also show changes [31]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes have different daily price changes [32][33]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The basis of the main continuous contract of lithium carbonate and the basis quotations of different brands show different values and changes [35][37]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 28,099 lots, with an increase of 608 lots compared to yesterday. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [40]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (including lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), import profit, and theoretical delivery profit are presented in the form of time - series charts [42][44]. Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises worried about cost increases, strategies include buying far - month futures contracts (40% recommended hedging ratio), selling LC2601 - P - 73000 (20% recommended hedging ratio), and using option combination strategies (20% recommended hedging ratio). For those worried about inventory impairment after procurement, strategies include selling the main futures contract (20% recommended hedging ratio) and using combination option strategies (10% recommended hedging ratio) [2]. - **Sales Management**: For enterprises worried about profit reduction due to price drops during sales, strategies include selling corresponding futures contracts (20% recommended hedging ratio), selling LC2601 - C - 90000 (10% recommended hedging ratio), and using combination option strategies (10% recommended hedging ratio) [2]. - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory worried about inventory depreciation, strategies include selling the main futures contract (20% recommended hedging ratio) and selling LC2601 - C - 90000 (10% recommended hedging ratio) [2].

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is mixed, with external markets performing well while the A-share market is underperforming [1] - In the materials sector, silicon materials and lithium mines have seen a surge but are now experiencing a pullback, indicating that prices may have risen too high [1] - The white liquor sector experienced a decline after a previous surge, with poor sales fundamentals leading to a lack of interest in further investments [2] Group 2 - The automotive sector reported a significant increase in production and sales, exceeding 3 million units in October, but the production outpacing sales may lead to a price war [3] - The excess inventory in the automotive sector raises concerns about future demand and pricing strategies [3] - The market's volatility is testing investors' patience and confidence, highlighting the challenges of navigating current market conditions [3]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 碳酸锂产业日报 2025/11/11 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 86,540.00 | -700.00↓ 前20名净持仓（日，手） | -163,201.00 | -877.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约持仓量（日，手） | 526,493.00 | -7990.00↓ 近远月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -1,640.00 ...

智通财经APP获悉，近期多项行业研究报告以及锂市场最新统计数据显示，自2022年以来持续遭遇"供应过剩"这 一负面因素冲击的全球锂行业正乘着史无前例AI热潮之下针对大规模电池储能需求的兴奋浪潮而奋勇扩张，从而 全面扭转了此前因供应端的过剩焦虑情绪而扰乱锂金属交易市场以及股票市场中与锂密切相关股票价格的长期悲 观定价趋势，这股需求扩张浪潮正在推动锂价以及锂板块股票价格迈向新一轮牛市。 作为电动汽车电池核心材料成分的碳酸锂最活跃期货交易合约在周二早盘于广州期货交易市场继续上涨，此前一 个交易日已跳涨大约5%。碳酸锂现货价格经历近期上涨趋势之后，则处在8月下旬以来的最高位，但仍较2022年 曾创下的历史峰值回落逾85%。 在股票市场，得益于近期锂价因AI热潮全面驱动的储能需求强劲以及国内"反内卷"政策基调而大举反弹，全球锂 板块股票价格普遍大涨，坐拥全球最大规模锂矿之一的智利矿业化工(SQM)股价自10月以来大涨超20%，中国A 股市场的多只锂板块热门股票出现连续涨停。 "我们认为，近期锂价上涨行情主要是由强劲需求而绝非是潜在的供应中断所驱动。"花旗集团的分析师团队在11 月9日发布的一份研究报告中表示。"随着时间 ...

Core Insights - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged due to a rebound in downstream demand, with the main contract closing at 87,260 yuan/ton, marking a 7.36% increase and a two-and-a-half-month high [2] - From October 14 to November 10, lithium carbonate futures prices rose by 20%, driven by strong production activity in the lithium iron phosphate industry [2] - The recent price increase is attributed to improved consumption fundamentals and speculation regarding the cost increase and delayed resumption of the Jiangxia Wokeng mine [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The futures price increase has led to a corresponding rise in spot prices, indicating a strong correlation between the two markets [3] - The trading activity in the spot market has significantly increased, with high transaction volumes supporting the overall market supply-demand relationship [3] - Lithium concentrate imports have been on the rise since the beginning of the year, with expectations of increased arrivals in mid-November [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - Domestic lithium carbonate production has remained stable despite the shutdown of the Jiangxia Wokeng mine, with October production reaching 92,260 tons, a 6% month-on-month increase and a 55% year-on-year increase [5] - The overall operating rate for lithium carbonate production in October was 56%, with lithium spodumene operating at 67% and mica at 32% [5] - The demand for lithium carbonate remains robust, particularly from the electric cell sector and the growing sales of new energy vehicles, which have provided strong support for market demand [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing price increase may continue if the Jiangxia Wokeng mine does not resume operations by the end of the month, potentially leading to a supply shortage [6][7] - The sustainability of the current demand growth is crucial for the continuation of the price rally, with attention needed on inventory levels and production plans of downstream enterprises [7] - Long-term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to stabilize around 60,000 yuan/ton due to supply disruptions and unexpected consumption growth [8]

Core Insights - The lithium market is experiencing a fundamental shift from supply-side concerns to demand-side optimism, driven by the explosive growth in battery energy storage systems (BESS) [1][2] - UBS predicts that BESS will become a significant driver of lithium demand, comparable to electric vehicles, with demand expected to account for 22% to 26% of total battery demand by 2030 [1][4] Demand Growth - UBS forecasts that global BESS demand will grow from 396 GWh in 2026 to 873 GWh by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24% starting from 2025 [4] - By 2026, BESS is expected to generate a demand of 360,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), which will surge to 680,000 tons by 2030 [5][6] - The annual incremental demand from BESS is projected to be around 90,000 tons of LCE, compared to 170,000 tons from electric vehicles [5] Supply Dynamics - UBS indicates that the lithium market may shift from a slight surplus of 55,000 tons in 2026 to a potential shortage due to the explosive demand from BESS [9] - The report highlights that while supply-side disruptions exist, the near 100% year-on-year growth in storage demand will have a more significant impact on market balance [9] Macro Drivers - The surge in BESS demand is attributed to three macro drivers: the inability to quickly increase new power generation capacity, the need for battery storage to balance the grid, and the growing demand for renewable energy [8][10] - The annual electricity demand growth in the U.S. has reached approximately 3%, driven by high-energy industries such as AI and data centers [10] Price Outlook - UBS maintains a positive outlook on lithium prices, predicting an increase of over 20% by mid-2026, with average prices reaching $1,100, $1,150, and $1,350 per ton in 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [13] - The structural explosion in storage demand is reshaping the fundamentals of the lithium industry, indicating a shift towards a tighter supply balance [13] Market Sentiment - Strong expectations for large-scale battery storage demand have significantly improved market sentiment, with lithium carbonate futures recently rising by 5% [2] - Citigroup notes that the recent upward momentum in the lithium market is primarily driven by robust demand rather than potential supply disruptions [2][7]

新华财经北京11月11日电（吴郑思） 短期碳酸锂的强需求逻辑难被证伪，驱动上周强势拉涨的碳酸锂 10日跳空高开并继续大幅拉涨，单日涨超7%。11日碳酸锂继续惯性走高，盘中高点触及88000元/吨上 方，继续逼近90100元／吨的年度高点。近五个交易日碳酸锂累计最大涨幅超10000元。 碳酸锂下游乃至终端行业的数据，也印证了需求的强劲表现。作为动力需求的典型代表，新能源汽车的 产销数据被普遍作为具有代表性的指标。乘联分会的最新数据显示，10月全国新能源乘用车批发销量达 到162.1万辆，同比增长18.5%，环比增长8.5%；同期新能源乘用车生产达到165.7万辆，同比增长 19.8%，环比增长10.2%。 不仅新能源汽车维持强劲增长势头，储能需求旺盛带动相关企业订单大增，更是成为近期市场关注的焦 点。受益于国内政策的积极推动、全球性需求的爆发，储能成为锂电需求新的增长极，甚至被视为推动 碳酸锂行业"冬去春来"的重要力量。 据SMM统计，今年前三季度，中国动力电芯累计产量达861.04GWh，同比增长45.6%。同期储能电芯产 量为355.1GWh，同比增长57.5%。产量激增的背后也受到订单需求的有力支持，有头 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-11 资金情绪影响较大，碳酸锂增仓大幅上涨 市场分析 2025-11-10，碳酸锂主力合约2601开于82600元/吨，收于87240元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化7.36%。当日成 交量为986569手，持仓量为534483手，前一交易日持仓量490951手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-4210元/吨 （电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单27491手，较上个交易日变化159手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价79000-82500元/吨，较前一交易日变化350元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价78150-78950元/吨，较前一交易日变化350元/吨。6%锂精矿价格995美元/吨，较前一日变化55美元/吨。据SMM 数据，市场情绪受需求利好高涨，上游惜售情绪渐浓，下游材料厂持谨慎观望态度，市场成交极少。目前，上下 游企业正在就明年的长期协议进行谈判，现阶段主要围绕系数展开博弈。供应端来看，锂盐厂整体开工率保持高 位运行，其中锂辉石端与盐湖端开工率均维持在60%以上，成为供应主力。预计11月国内碳酸锂产量可以维持10 月的生产量级，环比大致持平。需求方面， ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector has shown significant strength, with multiple companies experiencing notable stock price increases on November 11, indicating a positive market sentiment towards lithium-related investments [2] Company Performance - Fangyuan Co., Ltd. saw its stock price rise by over 12% [2] - Other companies in the lithium sector, including Xinxunda, Shengxin Lithium Energy, Dawi Co., Ltd., Wanlishi, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, also reported substantial gains, contributing to the overall positive trend in the industry [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is rated as 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The strength ranges from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish), with classifications including weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, and strong [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is strong, with both the expected and actual demand in the energy storage sector being robust [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 84,500 yuan, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest compared to previous periods. The 2601 contract has a closing price of 87,240 yuan, and its trading volume and open interest show different trends compared to historical data. For example, the trading volume of the 2601 contract on the current day is 986,569, an increase of 175,914 from the previous day [1]. - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract is -3,750 yuan, and between spot and 2601 contract is -6,490 yuan. The difference between 2511 and 2601 contracts is -2,740 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 966 yuan, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 2,180 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,750 yuan, showing an upward trend compared to previous periods [1]. - **Related Products**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as ternary materials, phosphoric acid iron lithium, and electrolytes also show different changes. For instance, the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) is 149,325 yuan, an increase of 1,500 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 80,864 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 493 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,750 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,550 yuan/ton, also up 350 yuan/ton [2]. - **Policy News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a guidance on promoting new energy consumption and regulation, which aims to promote new energy consumption nearby and enhance the adaptability of the new power system to new energy, and improve the capacity price mechanism of regulatory resources [3]. - **Company News**: Ganfeng Lithium announced that the PPGS lithium salt lake project in Argentina has obtained the "Environmental Impact Assessment Report", and the project is expected to submit an application to the Argentine government in the first half of 2026. The project has about 1,507 million tons of LCE proven + controlled resources [3].