交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为22161吨，环比增长0.52%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为100885吨，环比减少1.35%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18002 吨，环比减少0.49%。 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年12月29日 目 录 1 每日观点 供给端，2025年11月碳酸锂产量为95350实物吨，预测下月产量为98210实物吨，环比增加3.00%,2025年11月碳 酸锂进口量为22055实物吨，预测下月进口量为27000实物吨，环比增加22.42%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强 化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所增长，低于历史同期平均水平，需求主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on December 29, 2025, and the trends of the main (continuous) contracts in December 2025. It also provides resistance and support levels for each futures contract [2][5]. - The report analyzes the macro - information, including national policies, economic data, and international events, and their potential impacts on the futures market [7]. - It elaborates on the price trends and influencing factors of precious metals, such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, as well as other commodities like crude oil, copper, and aluminum [13][14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Information and Trading Tips - The 19th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee passed a decision on convening the 4th session of the 14th National People's Congress and the agenda. It also passed the revised Foreign Trade Law, which will come into effect on March 1, 2026 [7]. - The 2026 National Two Sessions' convening time is determined. The 4th session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held on March 4, 2026, and the 4th session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held on March 5, 2026 [8]. - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 6,626.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In November, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [9]. - The National Conference on Industry and Information Technology deployed ten key tasks for 2026, including curbing low - price and low - quality competition, supporting AI research, and promoting the development of new businesses [9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that in 2025, the industrial economy advanced steadily, with the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size expected to increase by 5.9% year - on - year [9]. - The National Financial Work Conference pointed out that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy will be continued, with an expansion of fiscal expenditure and optimization of government bond tools [10]. - The central bank released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", indicating that relevant departments will improve the institutional environment for long - term investment in the A - share market and promote the improvement of listed companies' quality [11]. - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund was officially launched, focusing on early - stage projects and seed enterprises in fields such as integrated circuits, artificial intelligence, etc. [11]. - This year, the global M&A transaction volume exceeded $4 trillion, reaching $4.5 trillion, the second - highest level in history [11]. - A new convention on global trade rules, the "United Nations Convention on Negotiable Transport Documents", was passed at the 80th United Nations General Assembly [12]. 3.2 Commodity Futures - Related Information - Global major economies' monetary policies are turning loose, geopolitical tensions are intensifying, and central banks are strengthening capital flow supervision, which enhances the institutional attractiveness of precious metals. On December 26, international gold and silver prices reached new highs [13]. - The reasons for the recent rise in precious metal prices include geopolitical tensions, a weakening US dollar, and low market liquidity. Silver's performance is more remarkable, driven by speculative capital inflows and supply mismatches [14]. - CME Group will comprehensively increase the performance margins of gold, silver, lithium, and other metal futures after the close on December 29 [14]. - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, with the "one - year silver swap spread" dropping to - 7.18%, indicating an extreme shortage of spot silver [15]. - On December 26, the prices of domestic precious metals and base metals rose collectively, with many varieties reaching new highs. The Shanghai Futures Exchange reminded to control market risks [15]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit ranges and trading margin standards of platinum and palladium futures contracts during the New Year's Day holiday in 2026 [15]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - On December 26, the main contracts of stock index futures, such as IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603, showed a trend of opening high, rising, then falling back and oscillating upward [16][17][18]. - It is expected that on December 29, stock index futures will likely show a strong - biased oscillation. For example, IF2603 has resistance levels at 4,667 and 4,691 points and support levels at 4,625 and 4,611 points [24]. - In December 2025, the main (continuous) contracts of stock index futures are expected to show a strong - biased or strong - biased oscillation trend, with corresponding resistance and support levels provided [23]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On December 26, the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, T2603, opened slightly higher and oscillated upward. The 30 - year main contract also rose [44]. - It is expected that on December 29, the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, T2603, will likely show a strong - biased oscillation, with resistance levels at 108.36 and 108.43 yuan and support levels at 108.21 and 108.17 yuan [46]. - The main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, opened slightly higher and oscillated upward on December 26. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29, with resistance levels at 113.2 and 113.6 yuan and support levels at 112.4 and 112.1 yuan [48][50]. 3.3.3 Precious Metal Futures - **Gold Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of gold futures, AU2602, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 and reach new highs. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [50][52][51]. - **Silver Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of silver futures, AG2602, opened flat, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward significantly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 and reach new highs. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [59][64][63]. - **Platinum Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of platinum futures, PT2606, opened with a gap up, then rose and oscillated strongly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 and reach new highs. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [67]. - **Palladium Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of palladium futures, PD2606, opened with a large gap up, then fell after a rebound and oscillated downward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [74]. 3.3.4 Base Metal Futures - **Copper Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of copper futures, CU2602, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward strongly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 and reach new highs. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [77][79]. - **Aluminum Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of aluminum futures, AL2602, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation [85]. - **Alumina Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of alumina futures, AO2605, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward significantly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased wide - range oscillation [90]. - **Nickel Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of nickel futures, NI2602, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation after an initial decline [95]. - **Tin Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of tin futures, SN2602, opened slightly higher, then rose and oscillated strongly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation [98]. 3.3.5 Other Commodity Futures - **Polysilicon Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of polysilicon futures, PS2605, opened slightly lower, then fell after a rebound and oscillated weakly downward. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation and reach new highs [102]. - **Lithium Carbonate Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures, LC2605, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward significantly. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation [106][107]. - **Rebar Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of rebar futures, RB2605, opened slightly higher, then fell after a rebound and oscillated slightly downward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [112]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of hot - rolled coil futures, HC2605, opened flat, then rose after a fall and oscillated slightly upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 [117]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of iron ore futures, I2605, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a wide - range oscillation [119]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of coking coal futures, JM2605, opened slightly lower, then fell after a rebound and oscillated downward. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a weak - biased wide - range oscillation [123]. - **Glass Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of glass futures, FG605, opened slightly lower, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation [127]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of soda ash futures, SA605, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, it is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation [133]. - **Crude Oil Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of crude oil futures, SC2602, opened slightly lower, then fell after a rebound and oscillated slightly downward. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29. In December 2025, the main (continuous) contract is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation [137]. - **PTA Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of PTA futures, TA605, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward strongly. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29 [143][144]. - **PX Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of PX futures, PX603, opened slightly higher, then rose and oscillated upward strongly. It is expected to show a weak - biased oscillation on December 29 [146]. - **PVC Futures**: On December 26, the main contract of PVC futures, V2605, opened slightly higher, then rose after a fall and oscillated upward. It is expected to show a strong - biased oscillation on December 29 [149].

Core Viewpoint - Chile's state-owned copper company and lithium giant have announced the formation of a large enterprise to enhance lithium resource development, aiming to regain its leading position in lithium production, which has been ceded to Australia over the past decade [1][3]. Group 1: Joint Venture Formation - A public-private partnership named "Nova Andino Litio SpA" has been established to explore, extract, produce, and commercialize lithium in the Atacama salt flat in northern Chile, with operations planned until 2060 [3][4]. - The partnership agreement was signed on May 31, 2024, and has received approvals from over 20 regulatory bodies, including those from China, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, the EU, and Chile [3]. Group 2: Operational Structure and Profit Distribution - The board of the new joint venture will consist of three representatives from each company, with the first meeting scheduled for December 29 [4]. - The operation will be divided into two phases: from 2025 to 2030, led by the chemical mining company, and from 2031 to 2060, where the copper company will hold a majority stake [4]. - The Chilean government will receive 70% of the joint venture's operating profits from 2025 to 2030, increasing to 85% from 2031 onwards [4]. Group 3: Production Goals - The joint venture plans to add 300,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent production capacity between 2025 and 2030, aiming for a stable annual output of 280,000 to 300,000 tons starting in 2031 [4].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a "small fluctuation" trend as it approaches the end of the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording eight consecutive days of gains [1] - Market liquidity is driving the current trend, with total trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan on the last Friday, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1] - Key sectors such as non-ferrous metals and lithium mining are benefiting from price increases, while themes like Hainan Free Trade Port and commercial aerospace remain active [1] Group 2 - Institutional buying power is expected to strengthen, with increased allocation of funds as external uncertainties ease, contributing to a positive cross-year market outlook [2] - The rebound of U.S. tech stocks, appreciation of the yuan, and rising prices of non-ferrous metals are identified as catalysts for the upcoming market rally [2] - The cross-year market is anticipated to show a clear characteristic of "growth leading, liquor sector consolidating," with a focus on sectors like snacks and dairy that are showing clear growth potential [3] Group 3 - The liquor sector is currently in a "bottoming out" phase, with demand expected to increase as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to a potential valuation recovery post-holiday [3] - Recent stabilization in prices from leading liquor companies and a decrease in inventory levels are early signs of recovery in the liquor market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong year-end rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an eight-day consecutive rise, and trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets returning to 2 trillion yuan, indicating a potential "spring rally" in the near future [4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market is showing signs of a "small rally" as it approaches the year-end, with significant trading volume and a notable rise in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, lithium mining, and commercial aerospace [8]. - The recent upward movement in the index is primarily driven by cyclical sectors, particularly non-ferrous metals, reflecting a recovery in market risk appetite [9]. - The current market environment is characterized by a "bottom consolidation" phase, preparing for a potential rally before the Spring Festival, rather than a full-blown upward trend [9]. Group 2: Capital Flow and Investment Strategies - Institutional buying power is expected to strengthen, driven by favorable policy expectations and a stable economic backdrop, with a notable increase in inflows into stock ETFs [10]. - The weak dollar and the appreciation of the RMB are enhancing the attractiveness of Chinese assets, leading to increased foreign investment [10]. - There is a strong willingness among various funds to enter the market, particularly as the new year approaches, indicating a potential continuation of the "spring rally" [11]. Group 3: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - High-growth sectors such as optical modules, PCB, and short-term supply-constrained areas like optical chips and high-speed copper cables are recommended for investment [12]. - The "price increase" narrative is acting as a catalyst for the current rally, with significant inflows into broad-based ETFs and a focus on sectors like chemicals and new energy materials [13]. - The consumption sector is also highlighted as a potential area for investment, given its relative underperformance this year and the supportive policy environment [16].

2025 年 12 月 28 日 远期固态电池等提供锂新的动能需求。固态电池因其高能量密度和安全性被视为 下一代技术方向。据鑫椤资讯预测：2025年固态电池出货量约5.1Gwh，2030 年达到近80GWh，2025-2030年复合增速64%；2035年达456GWh，2025-2035 年复合增速53%。其中半固态电池2024年已经进入量产出货，全固态电池目前 主要在实验室验证阶段，预计2027年开始Gwh出货。国内较多企业开始积极布 局固态电池。根据雅保公告，全固态电池度电耗锂量有望达到近2kg/KWh,较现 有锂电体系翻倍，有望进一步拉动锂需求量。 投资建议：建议关注矿端增量较大的天华新能、盛新锂能、大中矿业、国城矿业、 藏格矿业、盐湖股份、雅化集团、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业等。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期；新国内外政策以及地缘政治不确定因素等。 行业研究 正极减产挺价有望助力锂价传导，储能需求预期提振改善供需格局 ——碳酸锂行业动态点评 要点 事件： 2025 年 12 月 25 日，湖南裕能、德方纳米、万润新能相继发布部分产线 减产检修公告：其中湖南裕能预计检修时间 1 个月，减少正极材料产品 1.5-3 ...

| [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 碳酸锂：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 12 | 月 | 28 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★正极厂减产挺价，关注锂电顺价博弈 上周（12/22-12/26）锂盐价格呈偏强走势。LC2601 收盘价环比 +16.5%至 12.78 万元/吨，LC2605 收盘价环比+17.2%至 13.05 万 元/吨；SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+14.6%、14.9% 至 11.2、10.9 万元/吨。氢氧化锂价格跟随上行，SMM 粗颗粒及 微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均价环比分别+18.2%、+16.9%至 10.2、 10.6 万元/吨。电工价差环比走阔 50 元至 2,650 元/吨。电池级氢 氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比缩窄 1470 元至 0.99 万元/ 吨。 上周碳酸锂价格延续大幅上行，加权合约持仓量变化较小，或预 示部分空头砍仓进一步推升行情，短期走势易受资金情绪影响， 不建议追高。基本面上，SMM 周度去库 ...

以下是为您生成的中文快讯： 表哥文章完读率超60%，远高于其他号主。股市方面，昨夜消息称春节 前英伟达有4万 - 8万颗H200芯片将卖至国内，受此影响其股价大涨，"英伟达映射股"受波及，国产GPU 明星股大跌。商业航天板块昨跌今涨，后续仍会反复炒作。有色金属期货疯涨，但A村锂矿股表现不 佳，与机构仓位轻有关。华尔街消息称铜价预计继续上升但空间有限。宇树科技或登2026春晚，有望 IPO成大肉签。特朗普盼美股上涨并要求降息，1月降息概率低。表哥神奇指数今日反弹，预计1月后箱 体有望上破。有色金属期货疯涨，后续或调整下跌。 风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 股票名称 ["英伟达映射股","国产替代GPU明星股","锂矿股","宇树科技"] 板块名称 ["科创板","商业航天","福建板块","科技股" ...

证券日报网讯 12月26日，西藏矿业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，目前公司碳酸锂销售价格参考 上海有色金属网价格进行定价，公司将加强研判，积极关注相关市场行情，保障公司稳健运营。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market has seen a significant surge, breaking through the 130,000 yuan/ton mark, with an increase of over 8% on December 26, marking a new high since November 2023, indicating a positive trend in the lithium carbonate market [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The price increase in lithium carbonate is attributed to both supply and demand factors, with a notable shift in market supply expectations due to domestic lithium resource consolidation and disruptions in overseas lithium mining and transportation [3][4] - The global demand for lithium carbonate is primarily driven by the growing electric vehicle (EV) market, which has seen an overall increase in sales across various regions, including Europe and Southeast Asia, creating a strong need for lithium in the supply chain [4] Inventory and Market Sensitivity - Some battery material companies have reported that their lithium carbonate inventories have dropped to low levels not seen since 2024, making them more sensitive to price fluctuations and prompting quick responses to any supply changes [5] Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The penetration rate of electric vehicles continues to rise, injecting stronger momentum into lithium demand, with companies preemptively stockpiling lithium carbonate in anticipation of a robust EV market in 2026 [6] - The concentration of global lithium resources is increasing, enhancing the pricing power of leading firms, which are consolidating resources and monopolizing high-quality lithium mines, allowing them to adjust prices flexibly based on market conditions [6][7] - The rising lithium carbonate prices are significantly impacting the midstream materials sector, with cost pressures leading to price increases in key materials like lithium hexafluorophosphate, which has improved the profitability of some companies [6] Price Volatility and Market Stability - Short-term price trends for lithium carbonate remain uncertain due to factors such as speculative trading and policy adjustments, with recent measures by the exchange aimed at stabilizing the market [9][10] - Industry experts predict that lithium carbonate prices may enter a wide fluctuation range of 120,000 to 140,000 yuan/ton in the short term, with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on downstream demand and inventory levels [10] Strategic Value of Lithium - The recent price surge reflects a balance between supply and demand and signifies market confidence in the long-term development of the EV sector, with lithium resources being recognized as a strategic asset in the era of electric vehicles [11]