分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 权益市场回顾： 上周（2025年5月26日至2025年5月30日）A股市场先在中美贸易谈判缓和中放量走高，随后 陷入震荡调整。近期板块轮动速度加快，行情震荡格局尚未改变。 权益市场观察 创新药利好频出： 上周创新药板块继续上涨，主要由近期诸多利好事件驱动。市场热度可能已达到阶段性高 点，后续需要关注潜力BD落地情况、重点产品阶段数据兑现情况，一旦强逻辑支撑趋弱，创新药的阶段行情可 能就将告一段落。 "新消费"扩散： 本轮"新消费"行情由龙头个股景气驱动扩散为贝塔行情，由潮玩、高端金饰公司扩散到港股新 上市茶饮，A股的宠物、美护等方向，近期"新消费"行情开始进入边缘扩散阶段。 科技回到"击球区"： 近期小微盘有阶段见顶迹象，TMT成交额占全A交易比重已经回落至相对低位，考虑到资 金承载能力和板块成长性，科技板块已到可寻找布局方向的阶段 公募基金市场动态： 2025年5月30日，上海证券交易所与中证指数公司公布优化上证380指数编制方案，并发 布上证580指数。本次优化及新发后，上交所形成"上证 ...

Fund Market - In June, the public fund issuance market experienced a "small peak" with 89 new funds launched, 70% of which were equity products [1] - Major fund companies like E Fund, Bosera, and Huatai-PineBridge actively participated in the issuance, with 41 funds starting on the first day after the Dragon Boat Festival [1] Banking Sector - In the first five months of this year, 184 small and medium-sized banks were approved for mergers or dissolutions, indicating a rising trend in bank consolidations [1] - The number of banks is expected to decrease from a peak of 4,600 to around 3,000 by 2025, shifting the focus from quantity to quality in banking development [1] Semiconductor Industry - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach $700.9 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, driven by demand in AI, cloud infrastructure, and advanced consumer electronics [2] - The DRAM industry revenue for Q1 2025 is estimated at $27.01 billion, a 5.5% decrease from the previous quarter, but prices are expected to stabilize and rise in Q2 2025 [1][2] Lithium Carbonate Market - The battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is currently at 60,456 yuan per ton, with a recent decline, and the market is expected to remain weak in the short term due to oversupply [2] Electronic Information Manufacturing - From January to April, the added value of China's electronic information manufacturing industry grew by 11.3% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industrial and high-tech manufacturing sectors [2] Travel and Tourism - During the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025, domestic travel reached 119 million person-times, a 5.7% increase year-on-year, with total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% [3] Microsoft Investment - Microsoft announced a $400 million investment in Switzerland to expand AI infrastructure and cloud computing services, enhancing its data centers in the region [4] Corporate Developments - Wanrun Co., Ltd. announced the resignation of its chairman, Huang Yiwu, due to work adjustments [5] - Honglu Steel Structure signed a procurement contract worth 458 million yuan for a steel structure project [6] - Fengfan Co., Ltd. won a bid for a 228 million yuan project with the State Grid [7] - Yatai Co., Ltd. received a notification for a new energy vehicle project with a total sales amount of approximately 200 million yuan over its lifecycle [8] Market Performance - The market saw a slight rebound with major indices rising, driven by strong performance in innovative drug and consumer sectors, while automotive stocks faced adjustments [9][10]

人气及连板股分析 连板晋级率回升至35.3%，最高标德邦股份晋级5连板，但受到整个无人车辆概念的退潮拖累，尾盘遭遇巨量炸板分歧。整个高位人气股仍呈现两极分化， 王子新材、京华激光遭遇2连跌停的同时，均瑶健康、合兴股份两只此前断板股双双以"地天板"形式完成反包，因此类似断板反包的N型走势或成为近期一 批新抱团品种的新常态。高位股持续分化的同时，银行、创新药等大市值体量板块的强趋势行情仍不断得以强化。其中将要入选沪深300、上证180等指数的 沪农商行涨停并创出3年多新高，也是银行板块更是时隔2年多后再现涨停个股。在市场短线投机接力方向分歧之际，一些趋势主导的板块仍容易对资金形成 虹吸。 | 连板数 | 晋级率 | | 2025-6-3 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4讲5 | 1/2=50% | 德邦股份(无人物流车) | | | 3 #4 | 2/2=100% | 御银股份 (数字货币) | | | 2讲3 | 3/13=23% | 恒宝股份 (数字货币+机器人) | | | | | 海联金汇(数字货币) | | | | | 哈三联(创新药+医美) | | | | | 万邦德(创 ...

Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations are showing signs of progress, with a joint statement indicating a 90-day pause on tariff increases, which is expected to boost global investor confidence [1][2] - The trade war initiated by Trump has led to significant volatility in global capital markets, with US bonds experiencing notable declines and a lack of buyers for maturing debt [2][7] Group 2: A-Share and Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The A-share market is showing potential for rebound after adjustments, with expectations for a stronger performance in July, particularly in sectors like humanoid robots and AI [3] - The Hong Kong market, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, is attracting foreign capital, indicating a positive outlook for tech giants [3][4] Group 3: New Consumption Trends - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong, including tea drinks and trendy toys, is outperforming traditional sectors like liquor and food, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards high-growth potential areas [4] - Investors are increasingly moving from traditional consumption stocks to new consumption opportunities, driven by the appeal of innovative business models [4] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Industry Challenges - The electric vehicle industry is facing intense price competition, leading to concerns from industry associations about the sustainability of such practices [5] - The price war is a result of market imbalances, with production capacity exceeding demand, prompting manufacturers to lower prices to clear inventory [5] Group 5: US Economic Outlook - The US economy is showing signs of slowing growth, with the first quarter GDP indicating negative growth, raising concerns about a potential recession if the trend continues [7] - The Federal Reserve is in a challenging position regarding interest rate adjustments, as rising bond yields reflect decreased interest in US debt, exacerbated by the trade war's impact on government credibility [7][8] Group 6: Investment Strategies - Warren Buffett's strategy of holding significant cash reserves while waiting for more favorable investment opportunities in the US stock market highlights a cautious approach amid current high valuations [8] - The emphasis on value investing remains crucial for navigating market fluctuations and achieving long-term success [8]

收评：三大指数小幅反弹 创新药概念股持续爆发 智通财经6月3日电，市场全天震荡反弹，三大指数小幅上涨。沪深两市全天成交额1.14万亿，较上个交易日放量22.3亿。盘面上，市场热点集中在医药和消 费方向，个股涨多跌少，全市场超3300只个股上涨。从板块来看，创新药概念股持续大涨，舒泰神等10余股涨停。新消费概念股再度走强，朗姿股份等涨 停。银行股等金融股盘中活跃，沪农商行涨停。下跌方面，汽车整车股展开调整，江淮汽车跌超5%。板块方面，美容护理、足球概念、创新药、宠物经济 等板块涨幅居前，汽车整车、钢铁、白酒、煤炭等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指涨0.43%，深成指涨0.16%，创业板指涨0.48%。 IJNIJ 7 2 4 - 2 - 2 - 1 / 1 封板率 69.00% 封板 68 触及 31 昨涨停今表现 3.83% 高开率 62% 获利率 71% ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices rebounded collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.35%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.73% [1] - The total market turnover reached 763.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.7 billion yuan compared to the same period of the previous trading day [1] - Over 3,400 stocks in the market experienced gains [1] Sector Performance - The gold sector led the market, with Western Gold hitting the daily limit [1][9] - The innovative drug sector remained active, with stocks like Wanbangde and Qianhong Pharmaceutical also hitting the daily limit [1] - The new consumption concept saw renewed activity, with stocks like Ruoyuchen and Wancheng Group hitting their historical highs [1][12] Sports Sector Impact - The Jiangsu City Football League ("Su Chao") attracted significant attention, with 15,669 fans attending a match despite rain [3] - The popularity of "Su Chao" translated into the capital market, with Jinling Sports hitting a 20% limit up and 11 stocks in the Jiangsu sector reaching their daily limits [4][6] Gold Market Insights - Gold prices rebounded, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $3,400 per ounce [11] - The gold sector in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showed strong performance, with several companies like China Silver Group and Zijin Mining also experiencing gains [9][11] New Consumption Trends - The new consumption sector saw significant growth, with stocks like Ruoyuchen and Wancheng Group achieving historical highs [12] - Recent data indicated that several new consumption stocks have seen their prices more than double, with Ruoyuchen and Wancheng Group increasing over four times [18]

6 月 3 日 A 股市场低开高走，宽基指数普涨，6月录得开门红。市场运行逻辑方面，"避险+消费"双轮驱 动的主线依然清晰，银行、新消费、创新药等板块持续获得资金青睐。 银行股的强势不仅源于其低估值和高股息属性对中长期资金的吸引力，部分个股入选重要指数样本也带 来增量资金预期。 消息面上，近期美国关税问题再生波澜，市场避险情绪升温，6月2日黄金大涨，港股全线收跌。就3日 表现看，港股收复昨日失地，A股也是低开高走，表明市场对关税不确定性已对贸易摩擦的边际影响逐 步脱敏 。 逻辑上，证监会此前明确表示，A 股上市公司近九成收入来自国内，且对美出口占比不足 10% 的企业 达 91%，叠加 "东升西落" 叙事下全球资本再平衡，美国金融市场波动反而凸显中国资产的稳定性。 题材热点方面呈现快速轮动态势。稳定币概念持续发酵，特别是数字货币与跨境支付方向表现强势，主 要受市场对相关领域潜在政策进展预期的推动。军工板块中无人机方向异军突起，多股涨停，行业前景 向好及潜在需求复苏预期成为重要驱动因素。受地方性足球赛事带动文旅消费等消息刺激，足球概念股 也出现明显拉升。此外，黄金概念股表现也较为抢眼。 这种分化折射出市场在不确 ...

Group 1: US Market Insights - The core inflation in the US is expected to rise rapidly to 3.8% in Q3, primarily driven by tariffs increasing commodity prices, which suggests that current market expectations of 3.2-3.3% are overly conservative [2] - The anticipated rise in inflation is likely to lead to significant volatility in both the US stock and bond markets, prompting investors to prepare for uncertainty [2] Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - A-share market has shifted from sentiment-driven to performance-driven logic, with analysts revising earnings forecasts for various indices, particularly downgrading the Sci-Tech 50 while upgrading sectors like dividends, CSI 500, Shenzhen Component, and CSI 1000 [3] - The correlation between performance, low valuations, and stock prices indicates a transition in the A-share market towards earnings-driven investment strategies [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is supported by continuous earnings upgrades, increasing southbound capital inflows, and a weakening US dollar index, which are all positive indicators for long-term strength [4] - The current recommendation for the Hong Kong market is to hold positions, with no further accumulation above 22,500 points [4] Group 4: Sector Recommendations - In the cloud computing sector, leading companies Tencent and Alibaba have shown strong performance in Q1, with competitive valuations and high liquidity [5] - The new consumption sector is characterized by a large young fan base and strong global expansion potential, while the pharmaceutical sector has shown significant earnings upgrades [5] - Dividend stocks, including operators, banks, and public utilities, are seen as stable performers that can effectively counter uncertainty [5] - The IPO market in Hong Kong has been impressive, with new stocks exceeding 30 billion market capitalization showing a median increase of 128% this year, suggesting opportunities in this area [5] - A focus on stocks with upgraded earnings forecasts is recommended, as the performance of the Hong Kong market is closely tied to earnings strength [5]

Market Overview - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower but rebounded, with major indices closing slightly higher on June 3. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3363.48 points, up 0.48%, with a trading volume of approximately 306.4 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10076.01 points, up 0.35%, with a trading volume of about 444 billion yuan. The ChiNext Index closed at 2007.76 points, up 0.73%, with a trading volume of around 203.3 billion yuan [1]. Sector Performance - New consumption concept stocks surged, with several stocks such as Chuangyuan Co., Jinhong Group, Ruoyuchen, and Lehui International hitting the daily limit. Financial stocks, including banks, continued to perform well, with Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank hitting the daily limit and Hangzhou Bank and CITIC Bank reaching historical highs. Innovative drug concept stocks remained strong, with Hainan Haiyao also hitting the daily limit. Conversely, automotive stocks experienced a pullback, with Jianghuai Automobile dropping over 5% [1][2]. Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities indicated that the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term, focusing on external tariff changes and domestic policy implementation. With a series of domestic policy supports, the adjustment space for the market is limited. The upcoming Lujiazui Forum on June 18-19 is expected to announce significant financial policies that could bolster market expectations, suggesting a focus on structural opportunities. Long-term, the A-share market is expected to reflect a self-driven narrative, supported by the Central Huijin Investment's role as a stabilizing fund and the push for long-term capital inflow [3]. - CITIC Securities noted a divergence in the humanoid robot sector, with previously high-performing stocks experiencing corrections. The market is now focusing on relatively undervalued intelligent application stocks. In the medium to long term, there is a recommendation to explore investment opportunities in "AI + robotics," including sensors, dexterous hands, robotic dogs, and exoskeleton robots. High-dividend assets continue to attract market interest amid a backdrop of interest rate cuts [3]. - Everbright Securities projected that the A-share market could experience a steady upward trend due to ongoing policy support and active inflow of medium to long-term funds. Current valuations are near the average since 2010, and with proactive policies, the influx of incremental funds may continue to support the capital market [4]. Policy Developments - Guangdong Province announced support for the development of new marine equipment, including deep submersibles, unmanned vessels, and underwater robots, as part of the "Regulations on Promoting High-Quality Development of the Marine Economy." The initiative aims to stimulate new industries and integrate technologies such as IoT, big data, and AI into the marine sector [5]. Index Adjustments - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced a periodic adjustment of sample stocks for the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and Shenzhen 100 Index, effective June 16, 2025. A total of 20 stocks, including Zhongtung High-tech and Gansu Energy, will be added to the Shenzhen Component Index, while 8 stocks, including BlueFocus and Changying Precision, will be included in the ChiNext Index [6]. Upcoming Product Launch - Huawei is set to launch the Pura 80 series and other products on June 11 at 14:30, as announced on their official WeChat account [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the Hong Kong stock market [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The hot IPO market provides more investment options for Hong Kong stocks, supported by upward revisions in earnings, increasing southbound capital, and a weakening US dollar index [2][64]. - The report suggests holding positions in Hong Kong stocks, with no further accumulation above 22,500 points [2]. - The report emphasizes a shift from sentiment-driven to earnings-driven market dynamics in A-shares, indicating a correlation between performance and earnings revisions [2][50][53]. Summary by Sections US Market Outlook - The report predicts a rapid rise in US core inflation to around 3.8% in the second half of the year, driven by tariff-induced price increases [2][10]. - It highlights significant volatility expected in US stock and bond markets in Q3, advising investors to prepare for uncertainty [2][10]. A-Share Market Insights - Following Q1 earnings reports, there is a notable performance divergence among sectors, with earnings-driven and undervalued stocks becoming the main focus [2][50]. - Analysts have revised earnings forecasts for various indices, with significant downward adjustments for the STAR 50 index and upward revisions for dividend, CSI 500, Shenzhen Component, and CSI 1000 indices [2][50]. Hong Kong Stock Market Analysis - The report identifies key sectors for investment: cloud computing (Tencent and Alibaba), new consumption and pharmaceuticals, dividend stocks (telecoms, banks, public utilities), and opportunities in new IPOs [2][64]. - The report notes that the median increase in share price for new IPOs with a market cap over 30 billion HKD has reached 128% this year [2][72]. - It emphasizes the strong correlation between the performance of Hong Kong stocks and earnings revisions, suggesting a focus on stocks with upward earnings revisions [2][75].