ljs 加安期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/6/26 | | 指标 | 5/27 | 6/17 | 6/23 | 6/24 | 6/25 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3516 | 3644 | 3781 | 3580 | 3574 | -6 | -70 | | | BU06 | 3523 | 3381 | 3472 | 3301 | 3280 | -21 | -101 | | | BU09 | 3465 | 3644 | 3781 | 3580 | 3574 | -6 | -70 | | | BU12 | 3278 | 3482 | 3620 | 3417 | 3405 | -12 | -77 | | 程南 | BU03 | 3234 | 3379 | 3531 | 3341 | 3321 | -20 | -28 | | | 成交量 | 458674 | 421957 | 421608 | 623658 | 381167 | -242491 | -40790 ...

6月25日，东营市政府新闻办举办"抓改革创新促高质量发展"主题系列新闻发布会第七场，对东营市发展改革委"抓改革创新，促高质量 发展"的有关情况进行介绍。 "近年来，东营市抢抓山东绿色低碳高质量发展先行区建设机遇，以全面深化改革为动力，加力提速打造产业转型升级、特色生态城市、 乡村振兴'三个升级版'，加快构建现代产业体系，协同推进降碳减污扩绿增长，新动能新优势不断塑强，经济发展质量更高、活力更 强，高水平现代化强市建设迈出坚实步伐。"发布会上，东营市发展改革委党组成员、副主任李过介绍，全市经济运行稳中提质，产业升 级步伐加快，内需外贸协同发力，改革创新不断深化，发展空间有效拓展。 在内需外贸方面，全市项目建设加力提速，1—5月份，固定资产投资同比增长8.5%，较1—4月份提高0.1个百分点，高于全省7.2个百分 点，居全省第3位；认真落实省提振消费十大行动计划，配套出台"1＋10"实施方案和政策措施，1—5月份，全市限额以上消费品零售额 157.31亿元，同比增长14%，较1—4月份提高0.4个百分点，高于全省6.6个百分点，居全省第2位；外贸外资运行稳定，宁德时代 （300750）零碳产业园及40GWh锂电池 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the total planned asphalt production in China in June 2025 is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and the sample enterprise output decreased, while the device maintenance volume increased. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt开工率 are lower than the historical average, while the waterproofing membrane开工率 is higher than the historical average [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - The refinery has recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory continues to be depleted. The weakening of crude oil weakens the cost support in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3544 - 3616 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 32.1788%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The sample enterprise output is 537,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.18%. The device maintenance volume is estimated to be 741,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 30.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 14.0559%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.73 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 22.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 45%, a month - on - month increase of 13.00 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 955.93 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10.70%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 801.07 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. The weakening of crude oil is expected to weaken the support in the short term [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery has recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory continues to be depleted. The weakening of crude oil weakens the cost support in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 fluctuating in the range of 3544 - 3616 [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Basis**: On June 24, the spot price in Shandong is 3760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 180 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 1.353 million tons, unchanged from the previous month; the in - plant inventory is 746,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.80%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 25,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.57%. The social inventory remains stable, and the in - plant and port inventories continue to be depleted [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closes above the MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position increases [10].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The petroleum and chemical indices primarily experienced declines last week, with the chemical raw materials index down by 1.16% and the chemical pharmaceutical index down by 5.37% [1] - The international crude oil prices showed high volatility due to the conflict between Israel and Iran, with WTI crude oil futures settling at $74.93 per barrel, up 2.67%, and Brent crude oil futures at $77.01 per barrel, up 3.75% as of June 20 [1] Group 2: Chemical Products Performance - The top five rising petrochemical products included p-xylene up by 10.53%, aniline up by 6.53%, purified terephthalic acid up by 6.01%, butyl acrylate up by 5.19%, and C9 fraction up by 4.96% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products included liquid chlorine down by 60%, vitamin D3 down by 8.57%, acrylic short fiber down by 7.89%, vitamin E down by 6.25%, and methyl acrylate down by 5.88% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance - The top five rising listed chemical companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets included Tongyuan Petroleum up by 42.09%, Zhun Oil Co. up by 40.23%, Jinniu Chemical up by 27.43%, Maohua Shihua up by 22.67%, and Honghe Technology up by 22.58% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies included ST Haiyue down by 38.85%, Aoyang Health down by 26.33%, Huaye Fragrance down by 20.41%, Jiangtian Chemical down by 19.22%, and Shanshui Technology down by 18.77% [2]

Economic Overview - Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces have reported stable economic performance in recent months [1] - Fixed asset investment in Zhejiang increased by 1.9% year-on-year from January to May, with project investment growing by 12.1% [3] - Infrastructure investment in Zhejiang rose by 14.2%, accounting for 26.4% of total investment, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Anhui's fixed asset investment grew by 0.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment increasing by 12.4% [3] - Jiangsu's fixed asset investment decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, but infrastructure investment grew by 8.7% [3] Trade Performance - Zhejiang ranked first in the country for export contributions, with total goods import and export reaching 2.24 trillion yuan, a 6.5% increase [4] - Anhui's total import and export value was 374.79 billion yuan, growing by 15.4% [4] - Jiangsu's total goods trade value was 2.33 trillion yuan, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [4] Consumer Spending - All three provinces maintained a retail sales growth rate of over 5% in the first five months [5] - Jiangsu's retail sales totaled 1.98839 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [5] - Zhejiang's retail sales reached 1.55 trillion yuan, with a growth of 5.3% [5] - Anhui's retail sales increased by 5.5% [5] Industrial Growth - Jiangsu's industrial added value grew by 7.7% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing accounting for 54.6% of the total [7] - High-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing in Jiangsu saw increases of 9.8% and 9.7%, respectively [7] - Zhejiang's industrial added value grew by 7.6%, with significant contributions from petroleum processing and automotive sectors [8] - Anhui's industrial added value increased by 8.4%, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 29.3% [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have been on the rise due to increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a significant drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $75.48 and $73.84 per barrel respectively as of June 20, 2025 [7][29] - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown mixed performance, with the sector down 1.03% while the broader market (CSI 300) fell by 0.45% [8][11] - The report highlights the increase in global offshore drilling platforms, with a total of 378 self-elevating platforms and 134 floating platforms as of June 16, 2025 [35] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of June 20, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $75.48 per barrel, up $1.25 (+1.68%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $73.84 per barrel, an increase of $0.86 (+1.18%) [29] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global self-elevating drilling platforms increased by 1 to 378, while floating drilling platforms decreased by 2 to 134 as of June 16, 2025 [35] U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.431 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.03 million barrels from the previous week [49] U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing averaged 16.862 million barrels per day, down 364,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.20%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points [59] U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 823 million barrels, a decrease of 11.243 million barrels (-1.35%) from the previous week [68] U.S. Product Oil Inventory - As of June 13, 2025, U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel inventories were reported at 230.013 million, 109.398 million, and 44.428 million barrels respectively, with slight increases in gasoline and diesel inventories [59] Related Companies - Key companies mentioned include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Neutral" as the industry index is expected to be in line with the benchmark [121] Core Views - The report highlights that the cost price center has significantly increased, leading to a narrowing of product price differentials in the oil refining sector [1] - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending June 20, 2025, was $75.53 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of $9.84 [1][2] - Domestic key refining project price differentials decreased to ¥2353.90 per ton, a decline of ¥49.10 per ton (-2.04%), while foreign key refining project price differentials increased to ¥1000.57 per ton, up by ¥48.15 per ton (+5.06%) [1][2] Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, have raised supply concerns, contributing to a strong increase in international oil prices [1] - Domestic and international refined oil prices have generally risen, with domestic diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging ¥7275.43, ¥8224.29, and ¥6273.29 per ton respectively [13] Chemical Sector - Chemical prices have seen a slight increase, primarily supported by cost factors, but the price differentials have narrowed [1] - Polyethylene and polypropylene prices increased, but the rise was insufficient to improve price differentials significantly [51] - Prices for pure benzene and styrene rose significantly due to cost support, while acrylonitrile prices remained stable [51] Polyester Sector - The PX price followed cost logic, with a significant increase due to the conflict in the Middle East, leading to a rise in product prices [76] - The average price of PTA increased to ¥5095.71 per ton, with an industry average net profit of -¥166.46 per ton [82] - The polyester filament market saw a slight increase in prices, but overall profitability remained limited due to insufficient orders [85] Performance of Major Refining Companies - The stock performance of six major private refining companies showed declines, with Rongsheng Petrochemical down by 5.84% and Hengli Petrochemical down by 4.25% over the past week [108] - Over the past month, the stock performance of these companies has also been negative, with significant declines noted for Oriental Rainbow and Hengli Petrochemical [108]

4月29日公司发布的一季报数据显示，一季度公司共实现营业总收入7.88亿元，同比下降34.00%，实现 净利润-0.35亿元，同比增长20.28%。（数据宝） 近日该股表现 | 日期 | 当日涨跌幅（%） | 换手率（%） | 主力资金净流入（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025.06.20 | 9.93 | 27.32 | -6839.83 | | 2025.06.19 | 9.93 | 6.93 | 4254.25 | | 2025.06.18 | -0.98 | 7.49 | -108.15 | | 2025.06.17 | 2.52 | 9.54 | -164.66 | | 2025.06.16 | 0.00 | 10.00 | -176.19 | | 2025.06.13 | 2.32 | 14.01 | 264.29 | | 2025.06.12 | 0.00 | 2.46 | -9.91 | | 2025.06.11 | -0.26 | 2.10 | -518.41 | | 2025.06.10 | -0.77 | 3.72 | 98.48 | | 202 ...

5月份，全省社会消费品零售总额2352.21亿元、同比增长8.5%，比上月加快0.4个百分点，今年以来呈 逐月加快态势，高于全国2.1个百分点；其中，限额以上单位消费品零售额增长16.2%，比上月加快1.3 个百分点，高于全国8.2个百分点。1-5月，全省社会消费品零售总额11820.14亿元、增长7.5%，比上月 加快0.3个百分点，高于全国2.5个百分点；其中，限额以上单位消费品零售额增长14.3%，比1-4月加快 0.4个百分点，高于全国8.0个百分点。超八成商品零售保持增长。5月份，在限额以上单位的23类商品 中，有19类商品零售额实现同比增长，增长面达82.6%、与上月持平。两新政策效应持续释放。5月 份，在大规模设备更新等政策措施带动下，全省限额以上单位机电产品及设备类商品零售额增长 46.1%；在消费品以旧换新等政策措施带动下，全省限额以上单位计算机及其配套产品、智能手机、可 穿戴智能设备、家用电器和音像器材类、新能源汽车零售额分别增长1.7倍、1.6倍、86.1%、47.3%、 27.0%，对全省限额以上单位零售额增长贡献率达56.8%、同比提高23.6个百分点。基本生活消费品增长 较快。5月 ...

Group 1: Company Overview and New Initiatives - The company established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Wuxi Jizhi Liquid Cooling Technology Co., Ltd., with an investment of 5 million RMB to enter the liquid cooling industry, aiming to optimize business structure and expand market reach [2] - The subsidiary will provide comprehensive solutions for IDC and AIDC intelligent computing center liquid cooling management systems, including GPU liquid cooling systems and cooling liquids [2] Group 2: Market Strategy and Production Capacity - The company has a production capacity of 400,000 tons per year for high-sulfur fuel oil, primarily serving international shipping clients, and is currently the only private refinery in China handling bonded high-sulfur fuel oil [3] - The company has successfully navigated the delivery of the first domestic bonded high-sulfur fuel oil futures, breaking the reliance on imports and supporting national energy independence [3] Group 3: Support from State Capital - The entry of state capital is expected to enhance the company's stability and accelerate industrial transformation, promoting long-term development [4] Group 4: Operational Improvements and Competitive Edge - The company is enhancing its competitive advantage by optimizing raw material procurement channels, increasing production capacity utilization, and exploring new business models such as import processing trade [5] - Efforts are being made to improve product quality and expand into high-end market applications, thereby increasing international market share [5] Group 5: Use of Convertible Bond Proceeds - Remaining funds from the convertible bond issuance will be used to permanently supplement working capital, repay bank loans, and support the upgrade of environmental aromatic oil products and comprehensive utilization of light hydrocarbons [6] Group 6: Disclosure of Information - The investor relations activity did not involve any undisclosed significant information [7]