Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for October show a downward trend influenced by last year's high base, deep adjustments in the real estate sector, and weak domestic demand, although there are still positive signs in certain areas such as service retail growth and advancements in high-tech manufacturing [2][3][4]. Economic Indicators - In October, the industrial added value and service production index both recorded the lowest monthly growth rates of the year, with industrial added value growing by 4.9%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, and service production growing by 4.6%, down 1 percentage point [3]. - The social retail sales growth rate for October was 2.9%, the lowest monthly growth rate of the year, with fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) declining by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October [4]. - The total import and export volume in October grew by 0.1%, with exports decreasing by 0.8% and imports increasing by 1.4%, reflecting a significant drop in growth compared to the previous month [5]. Policy Measures - A new policy package involving 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and 500 billion yuan in local debt limits has been introduced to stimulate investment and support local government finances [2][8]. - The effectiveness of these policies is expected to take time to materialize, with projections indicating significant impacts by the first quarter of 2026 [8][9]. Sectoral Performance - High-tech manufacturing sectors, such as equipment manufacturing and information technology services, continue to show robust growth, with equipment manufacturing value increasing by 8% and information technology services growing by 13% [3][4]. - Investment in high-tech sectors like aerospace and information services has seen substantial growth, with aerospace manufacturing investment increasing by 19.7% and information services by 32.7% from January to October [4]. Economic Outlook - Despite the downward pressure on economic indicators, achieving the annual growth target of around 5% remains likely, although there is a growing necessity for enhanced growth stabilization policies to address weak demand and the real estate market's challenges [9][10]. - Recommendations for policy adjustments include increasing fiscal spending, optimizing expenditure structures, and implementing further monetary easing to support economic recovery [10].

Economic Overview - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from decline to increase, rising by 0.2% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking six consecutive months of growth acceleration [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, continuing a trend of three months of narrowing [1] Industry Performance - The prices in industries such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing showed month-on-month increases of 0.2% and 0.6%, respectively, indicating a positive effect from the regulation of market competition [1] - The service sector's production index grew by 4.6% year-on-year in October, although the growth rate slowed compared to the previous month due to a higher base from the same period last year. However, the service sector's growth remains stable when viewed over two years and cumulative growth [1] Consumer Behavior - The holiday economy has had a significant impact, with retail sales of consumer goods continuing to grow. In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with sales of products related to the trade-in of old goods maintaining rapid growth [2] - Retail sales of communication equipment and cultural office supplies increased by 23.2% and 13.5%, respectively, in the retail sector above designated size [2] - Increased travel during holidays has expanded consumption in tourism and cultural services, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% year-on-year from January to October, outpacing the growth rate of goods retail sales [2]

Economic Overview - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline to an increase, rising by 0.2% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 0.3% in the previous month. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2%, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking six consecutive months of growth acceleration [1][3]. Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 2.1% in October, with the rate of decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, continuing a trend of three months of narrowing declines. Prices in industries such as lithium-ion battery manufacturing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing increased by 0.2% and 0.6% month-on-month, respectively [3]. Service Sector Performance - The service sector's production index grew by 4.6% year-on-year in October, although the growth rate slowed compared to the previous month due to a higher base from the same period last year. The growth in the service sector remains stable when viewed over two-year averages and cumulative growth. The combined impact of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays accelerated growth in related services, with the accommodation and catering industry production index increasing by 3.9%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. Retail Sales Insights - The retail sales of consumer goods showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9% in October, supported by the holiday economy. Sales of goods related to the "old for new" consumption initiative maintained rapid growth. In October, retail sales of communication equipment and cultural office supplies increased by 23.2% and 13.5%, respectively. From January to October, service retail sales grew by 5.3%, outpacing the growth rate of goods retail sales [4].

Economic Overview - The national economy continues to show a stable and progressive development trend, with steady growth in production and demand, stable employment and prices, and ongoing transformation and upgrading [1][4] Production and Supply - Agricultural production remains strong, with an increase in autumn grain area and yield, indicating a good harvest for the year. Industrial production is stable, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in the added value of large-scale industries in October. The equipment manufacturing sector outperformed, growing by 8% [1][3] Market Sales - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year in October, driven by holiday economic activities. Notably, sales of communication equipment and cultural office supplies grew by 23.2% and 13.5%, respectively [2][3] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in October, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The unemployment rate for migrant agricultural workers was 4.5%, indicating a stable employment situation overall [2][3] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year in October, reversing a previous decline. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2%, marking a continuous expansion in the growth rate [3] Transformation and Upgrading - High-tech manufacturing continues to grow, with a 7.2% year-on-year increase in added value for large-scale high-tech manufacturing in October. The export of high-tech products rose by 7.3% in the first ten months [3][4]

Group 1: Inflation Data - In October, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[3] - The year-on-year growth rate of food items in CPI recorded a decline of -2.9%, narrowing the drop by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous value[3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed a year-on-year growth of 1.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value[3] Group 2: PPI Trends - The PPI decreased by -2.1% year-on-year in October, improving by 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[16] - From July to October, the PPI year-on-year declines were -3.6%, -2.9%, -2.3%, and -2.1%, indicating a trend of monthly recovery[4] - The overall industrial product PPI decreased by -2.7% from January to October[16] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The rise in both CPI and the narrowing decline in PPI suggest a potential need for further stimulus policies to boost domestic demand and sustain inflation recovery[5] - The PPI is expected to continue to recover, supported by policies aimed at reducing internal competition and improving upstream prices[5] - Monitoring marginal changes in indicators such as food prices, oil prices, and coal prices is recommended[5] Group 4: Risks - Risks include potential underperformance in consumer recovery, unexpected economic recession, and unforeseen impacts from tariffs on related industries[20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a slight recovery in pork prices in October, with the average wholesale price of white strip pork in Beijing's Xinfadi market decreasing to 14.9 yuan/kg from 15.40 yuan/kg at the end of October, despite a small increase earlier in the month [2][5] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2% in October, marking a recovery from a 0.3% decline in September, driven by factors such as the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival consumption [2][6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) also showed positive changes, with a year-on-year decline of 2.1% in October, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a potential turning point in price trends [3][8] Group 2 - The increase in the average daily market supply of white strip pork in late October contributed to a "small spring" for pork prices, with a year-on-year increase of 15.48% in daily supply [5] - The overall food prices performed better than seasonal expectations, with pork prices down 16.0% year-on-year, impacting CPI by approximately 0.23 percentage points, while the declines in egg and fresh vegetable prices also narrowed [6][9] - The PPI's first month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October is attributed to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries and rising prices in sectors such as coal mining and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [8][9]

Group 1: Inflation Data - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 0.2% and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly above seasonal levels, indicating a moderate recovery in prices[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking a six-month consecutive increase and reaching the highest level since March 2024[1] - Food prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, impacting the overall CPI negatively by approximately 0.54 percentage points[11] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - In October 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first positive growth of the year, while year-on-year it decreased by 2.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month[19] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to improved supply-demand relationships in key industries, effective capacity management, and the release of consumer demand[19] - Prices in the photovoltaic equipment and battery manufacturing sectors saw a reduction in their year-on-year decline, reflecting the positive impact of industrial upgrades and technological innovation[19] Group 3: Economic Signals and Risks - The month-on-month CPI increase signals multiple positive economic indicators, including the effectiveness of demand expansion policies and the recovery of service consumption[16] - However, potential risks remain, such as insufficient effective demand and the cyclical adjustment of agricultural product prices, particularly pork, which may continue to drag down the CPI[16] - The energy prices remain a significant external variable affecting price fluctuations, influenced by international commodity market volatility[16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core View of the Report - In October 2025, CPI turned positive year-on-year for the first time this year, and PPI increased 0.1% month-on-month. Core CPI continued to rise, potentially driven by the "Investing in People" policy, supported by both service and industrial consumer prices. The drag from food and energy weakened. The prices of upstream extraction and processing and key manufacturing industries for capacity management in PPI stabilized and rebounded, with marginal improvement in the supply-demand relationship. The low-price environment continued to improve, but due to the holiday demand in October, the transmission from industrial products to consumer goods needed further observation. Prices were expected to continue a mild improvement, but the bond market had already priced in price expectations to a certain extent, so the impact of prices on the bond market within the year might be limited. The yield of the active 10-year Treasury bond (tax-free) was expected to decline to 1.65%-1.7%, and the yield of the taxable bond to 1.7%-1.75% [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Event Description - In October 2025, CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, higher than the consensus forecast of -0.05%. Core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for the sixth consecutive month. PPI increased 0.1% month-on-month, turning from flat in the previous month, and decreased 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, higher than the consensus forecast of -2.3% [6]. Event Review - **Core CPI Continued to Rise**: In October, core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year, reaching a new high since March 2024. Service prices increased 0.8% year-on-year, with travel-related consumption strong and tourism prices rising 2.5% month-on-month above the seasonal level. Medical and household service prices rose 2.4% and 2.3% year-on-year respectively. Industrial consumer goods (excluding energy) prices continued to improve, rising 2.0% year-on-year. With the government emphasizing "Investing in People" policies, core CPI might maintain its resilience [10]. - **Food and Energy Drag Weakened, CPI Turned Positive Year-on-Year**: In October, CPI turned positive year-on-year to 0.2%, rising 0.2% month-on-month slightly above the seasonal level. Food prices decreased 2.9% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, with a 0.3% month-on-month increase stronger than the seasonal level. Energy prices decreased 2.4% year-on-year, and the drag on the overall CPI weakened compared to the previous month [10]. - **PPI Turned Positive Month-on-Month, Upstream and Key Manufacturing Prices Rebounded**: In October, PPI increased 0.1% month-on-month, the first positive growth this year, and the year-on-year decline narrowed to 2.1%, improving for the third consecutive month. Production material prices stabilized, with coal, non-ferrous metals and other upstream industries showing obvious price rebounds. Under the promotion of key industry capacity management, the year-on-year decline in prices of photovoltaic equipment, battery manufacturing, and automobile manufacturing narrowed [10]. - **High - end Manufacturing Showed Resilience, but Downstream Pressure Remained**: The prices of computer整机 manufacturing, lithium - ion battery manufacturing, and integrated circuit manufacturing all turned from decline to increase month-on-month. However, the prices of consumer durables and clothing remained weak, and traditional chemical and non-metallic product industries were still under pressure due to factors such as the decline in international oil prices and the adjustment of the real estate market [10]. - **Low - price Environment Improved, but Transmission Needed Observation**: The improvement in October data was partly driven by the temporary demand during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays. Prices were expected to continue a mild improvement within the year. The bond market had already priced in price expectations to a certain extent, so the impact of prices on the bond market within the year might be limited [10].

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) - In October, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% both month-on-month and year-on-year, driven by effective domestic demand policies and holiday-related consumption [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 and continuing a six-month upward trend [1][2] - Service prices turned from a 0.3% decline to a 0.2% increase, influenced by strong travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with hotel accommodation, airfare, and tourism prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively [2] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise of the year, with improvements in supply-demand relationships contributing to price increases in several industries [3] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.1%, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a continuous trend of narrowing declines for three consecutive months [3] - Key industries such as coal mining, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and cement manufacturing experienced price increases, while international commodity prices influenced domestic prices in the non-ferrous metals and petroleum sectors [3]

Group 1 - In October, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first rise of the year due to improved supply-demand relationships and international commodity price transmission [1] - The coal mining and washing industry saw a month-on-month price increase of 1.6%, while coal processing prices rose by 0.8%. Prices for photovoltaic equipment and components increased by 0.6%, continuing an upward trend for over two months [1] - The prices in the non-ferrous metal and oil-related industries showed divergence due to input factors, with domestic non-ferrous metal mining prices rising by 5.3% and oil and gas extraction prices declining by 2.3% [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.1% in October, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the third consecutive month of narrowing [2] - The coal mining and washing industry's year-on-year price decline narrowed by 1.2 percentage points due to increased capacity checks and safety regulations, along with rising winter storage and electricity demand [2] - The competitive order in the market is improving, leading to a gradual exit of backward production capacity, with year-on-year price declines in photovoltaic equipment, battery manufacturing, and automotive manufacturing narrowing by 1.4, 1.3, and 0.7 percentage points respectively [2]