来源：第一财经 (本文来自第一财经) 恒指跌1%，恒生科技指数跌0.04%，新消费概念股低迷，泡泡玛特跌超8%，老铺黄金跌超3%，毛戈平 跌2.4%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market continues to decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1% and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 0.04% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index experienced a slight decline of 0.04% [1] Group 2: Company Performance - New consumption concept stocks are underperforming, with Pop Mart falling over 8% [1] - Lao Pu Gold dropped more than 3% [1] - Mao Ge Ping decreased by 2.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to perform well in 2026, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index leading global markets, as valuations have entered a "reassuring range" [1][2] Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong stock market is likely to achieve positive returns in 2026, driven by company earnings growth rather than mere valuation expansion [2][3] - Three major trends are supporting the strength of the Hong Kong stock market: 1. A strong cycle driven by technological innovation, particularly in AI and new consumption sectors [2][3] 2. Continued foreign capital inflow, recognizing the long-term value of Chinese core assets [3] 3. Southbound capital providing liquidity support, with a cumulative net inflow exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus should be on high-quality assets with strong profit margins and solid competitive advantages, as these are crucial for long-term competitiveness [4][5] - The investment strategy emphasizes a "barbell strategy," balancing stable high-dividend assets with growth stocks to capture market opportunities [6][7] - Companies with strong AI capabilities and high dividend yields are highlighted as having the highest earnings certainty and providing stable returns [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to complete a remarkable year in 2025, with various funds actively participating in sectors such as innovative drugs, internet, new consumption, and technology, contributing to a strong performance of the Hang Seng Index [1] Group 1: Market Trends and Fund Flows - The "Northbound capital flow" has significantly attracted investments, with a record net inflow of nearly 1.3 trillion RMB into the Hong Kong stock market this year, marking a historical high [2] - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index have risen by 28.42% and 23.88% respectively, representing one of the highest levels in the past decade [2] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the public fund investment in Hong Kong stocks reached 1.33 trillion RMB, with passive funds for the first time surpassing active funds in market share [2] Group 2: Fund Performance and Outlook - Funds focused on Hong Kong stocks have yielded substantial returns, with an average return of 28.46% for actively managed equity funds containing "Hong Kong Stock Connect" in their names, and nearly half of these funds seeing net asset value increases exceeding 30% [3] - Fund managers are optimistic about the continuation of net inflows from southbound capital into the Hong Kong market in 2026, citing favorable conditions in terms of fundamentals, valuations, and liquidity [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Focus Areas - Fund managers are particularly interested in sectors such as AI, internet, new consumption, and resource products for 2026, highlighting the attractiveness of technology stocks, especially in AI applications [7] - The focus on innovative drugs is driven by the expansion of business development overseas and supportive policies, while traditional consumption remains appealing due to attractive valuations [7] - Investment strategies include a focus on cyclical assets, innovative-sensitive assets, and upstream resource opportunities in the context of global inflation [8]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently experiencing a low-level oscillation, with initial signs of stabilization as major indices' moving averages converge, awaiting a new trend in the market [4][7][16] - It is anticipated that a new buying window will open around mid-December, driven by institutional funds repositioning for the next year, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][16] - The long-term outlook suggests a "slow bull" market for A-shares in 2026, supported by improved corporate performance, increased household savings entering the market, and a favorable global liquidity environment [4][7] Group 2 - The report highlights the potential for significant growth in the commercial aerospace sector, with the market expected to exceed 2.5 trillion yuan this year, driven by favorable policies and the establishment of dedicated regulatory bodies [11] - There is a focus on strategic minor metals and industrial metals, with expectations for a rebound in prices as the price gap between precious metals and these metals continues to widen [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of the AI application sector and domestic AI computing capabilities, which are expected to benefit from policy support and market trends [17][18] Group 3 - The real estate market is showing signs of divergence, with new home prices increasing while second-hand home prices continue to decline, affecting consumer sentiment [8] - The report notes that the financial sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, with regulatory changes expected to inject significant liquidity into the market [12] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to positively impact sectors such as non-ferrous metals and innovative pharmaceuticals [18]

港股消费ETF（513230）跟踪中证港股通消费主题指数，一键打包互联网电商龙头+新消费，成分股近 乎囊括港股消费的各个领域，包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、名创优品等新消费龙头，又包含腾讯、快手、 阿里巴巴、小米等互联网电商龙头，科技+消费属性突出。 每日经济新闻 11月20日，财政部、商务部联合正式公示消费新业态新模式新场景试点50个拟入选城市名单。中央财政 将按城市规模给予最高4亿元/城的资金补助，从健全首发经济服务体系、创新多元化服务消费场景、支 持优质消费资源与知名IP跨界联名三大维度，为消费市场提质扩容。12月日，浙江《推动经济高质量发 展若干政策（2026年版）（征求意见稿）》近日公开征求意见，在推进服务业扩能提质和消费转型升级 方面，《征求意见稿》提出以更大力度推动消费转型升级，加快消费新业态新模式新场景培育，省市县 联动发放消费券，带动商品消费与文旅、体育、养老等服务消费联动发展。 华泰证券认为，地产周期尤其是地产价格变化仍然是判断26年消费复苏力度与速度的胜负手，在26年房 价结构性企稳的预期下，居民资产负债表修复有望带动消费倾向边际改善；同时，可能的供给与需求政 策刺激将提振居民消费意愿。必选消 ...

Group 1: Policy Insights - The joint policy issued by six ministries aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, marking a significant shift in consumption policy since the Fourth Plenary Session[6] - By 2027, the goal is to establish three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots, indicating a strong focus on new consumption[7] - The policy emphasizes the application of new technologies and models, expanding the supply of unique and new products, and fostering new consumption scenarios and business formats[6] Group 2: New Consumption Characteristics - New consumption is characterized by a focus on emotional value and technological content, with consumers increasingly valuing emotional experiences over mere functionality[14] - The rise of short video platforms and the experience economy is reshaping both online and offline consumption scenarios, enhancing consumer engagement and satisfaction[16] - The Z generation and younger elderly populations are becoming the main consumer forces, driving demand for products that align with their values and emotional needs[26] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The transition from an incremental consumption market to a high-quality development phase is driven by the need to address product homogeneity and enhance consumer experience[18] - The increasing middle-income population, projected to exceed 400 million by 2025, is expected to provide sustained momentum for consumption growth[20] - New consumption brands like Mixue Ice City, Pop Mart, and Laopuhuang are thriving due to their unique IPs and precise market positioning, demonstrating strong revenue growth[41]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's 2026 outlook for China's economy and stock market indicates a significant shift in global investors' perception, moving from a market lacking clear growth potential to one rich in growth opportunities, particularly in sectors like AI, new consumption, automation, and biotechnology [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment sentiment towards the Chinese market is improving, with expectations for continued inflows in 2026 following a substantial valuation recovery in 2025 [2]. - The MSCI China Index has shown significant valuation recovery, marking a milestone for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, leading to a renewed interest from global investors [2]. - Passive funds have seen a notable increase in inflows, while active funds remain cautious, with less than 5% of their global investment capacity allocated to Chinese stocks [3]. Group 2: Positive Economic Changes - Three positive changes in the Chinese economy have emerged since the "9·24" policy shift: 1. Enhanced policy responsiveness, with a focus on development and flexible adjustments [4]. 2. Resilience and innovation among Chinese enterprises, showcasing advancements in AI, smart vehicles, and biopharmaceuticals [4]. 3. A shift in global investor focus from dollar assets to diversified allocations, with a growing interest in China's tech innovations [4]. Group 3: Policy and Infrastructure Investment - The 2026 fiscal policy is expected to prioritize infrastructure investments in new areas such as underground pipeline renovations and green transition projects, driven by carbon reduction goals [5]. - Increased support for consumption through measures like birth subsidies and social security enhancements reflects a flexible and rich policy toolbox [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy - The market's driving logic is set to change in 2026, with a completed valuation recovery and a stable, reasonable valuation level that can attract new capital [7]. - The anticipated easing of global liquidity, including three expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2026, will support stock assets [7]. - Investment strategies should focus on high-growth sectors aligned with China's long-term development, such as high-end manufacturing, AI, and biotechnology, while also including quality dividend-paying sectors like insurance [7].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the Hong Kong and overseas markets in 2025, highlighting frequent asset rotation driven by credit expansion expectations [1][2] - The U.S. market is experiencing a credit cycle recovery, with expectations of a volatile or slowing trend in 2026, influenced by emerging demand, government spending, and potential Fed rate cuts [1][5] - The Chinese market is characterized by excess liquidity chasing scarce return assets, but reliance solely on liquidity is insufficient for sustained market growth [1][8] Key Points and Arguments Credit Cycle and Market Dynamics - The credit cycle is expected to gradually stabilize in Q4 2025, with a focus on the gap between actual and natural interest rates, industry trends, and policy support [1][10] - The investment strategy should align with credit expansion directions, favoring stable return assets during downturns and cyclical sectors during expansions [3][4][17] U.S. Market Insights - The U.S. market is projected to have a positive outlook, supported by a 13% to 16% earnings growth, despite high short-term valuations and risks [5] - AI technology is highlighted as a significant area of potential, with companies saving an average of 10% through AI, translating to approximately $300 billion in annual savings for S&P 500 companies [5][13] Gold Market Evaluation - Gold is viewed as a long-term value asset and a partial substitute for dollar credit, with a recommendation for a dollar-cost averaging investment strategy [1][7] - If gold prices reach $5,500, its total value could exceed the total value of U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating its potential as a hedge against dollar depreciation [7] Chinese Market Challenges - The Chinese market faces challenges related to excess liquidity and the need for fundamental support to sustain growth [8][9] - Historical lessons from Japan suggest that relying solely on liquidity without addressing income expectations and debt pressures can lead to market stagnation [9] Policy Effectiveness and Investment Strategy - The effectiveness of policies is prioritized as follows: finding new growth points, enhancing income expectations, and alleviating debt pressures [11] - The Hong Kong market index is projected to reach between 26,000 and 29,000 points under baseline scenarios, with a focus on dividend stocks and banking sectors as investment strategies [2][12] Sector Opportunities - Certain sectors, particularly those with low valuations and strong demand expectations, are identified as having trading opportunities [15] - External demand is significantly impacting the economic structure, with strong export demand driven by supply chain restructuring in emerging markets [16] Additional Important Insights - The bond market is experiencing unexpected rate cut expectations, suggesting a need for intermittent trading strategies to mitigate risks associated with Fed policy changes [6] - The potential for cyclical shifts in sectors like chemicals and coal is noted, as some investors may view these as opportunities for trading based on credit cycle dynamics [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a pullback, but there is a counter-trend inflow of funds, particularly into the Hong Kong Technology ETF (159751), which saw a net subscription of 10 million units. The market is expected to continue its upward trend due to strong overall profitability and the scarcity of assets in sectors like the internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, alongside the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1]. Group 1 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF (159751) closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which selects 50 large-cap, high R&D investment, and high revenue growth technology companies to reflect the overall performance of technology leaders in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [1]. - As of December 3, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573) shows mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with Huahong Semiconductor (01347) leading with a 2.40% increase, followed by Gao Wei Electronics (01415) at 1.81%, and BYD Electronics (00285) at 1.28% [1]. - The overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market remains low despite several months of increases, indicating a high long-term allocation cost-performance ratio [1]. Group 2 - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573) include Alibaba-W (09988), Tencent Holdings (00700), and SMIC (00981), with these ten stocks accounting for 67.26% of the index [2].