Global Economic Trends - Global economic growth is expected to be 2.8% in 2025, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the average growth rate from 2010 to 2019[14] - The World Bank predicts a global economic growth of only 2.3% in 2025, down from earlier forecasts[15] - International trade growth is anticipated to decline, with a projected decrease of 0.2% in global merchandise trade volume in 2025[16] China's Economic Outlook - China's GDP is projected to grow by approximately 4.7% in the second half of 2025, with a nominal GDP growth of 4.3% in the first half[27][28] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) may turn negative in the second half of 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by around 3.0% for the year[30] - The unemployment rate for urban areas averaged 5.2% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year[27] A-Share Market Performance - A-share companies' overall market value creation ability decreased by nearly 40 basis points in 2024 compared to 2023[40] - The performance of A-share companies is increasingly diverging from nominal GDP growth, particularly in the manufacturing sector[40] - The return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) for A-share companies continued to decline in 2024[40] Sector-Specific Insights - The first industry saw a significant recovery in asset returns due to rising pork prices, while the second and third industries experienced declines[10] - R&D investment in some sectors continued to rise in 2024, although some industries began to see a decrease[10] - The manufacturing sector is facing severe "involution" competition, impacting profitability and pricing power[30]

Group 1 - The stock price of Huafeng Aluminum is reported at 17.73 yuan, down 1.39% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 17.62 yuan to 18.09 yuan and a transaction amount of 203 million yuan [1] - Huafeng Aluminum primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of aluminum plates, strips, and foils, with applications in automotive, home appliances, and construction sectors [1] - The company is classified within the non-ferrous metals industry and is a locally listed company in Shanghai [1] Group 2 - In the second quarter of 2025, social security funds increased their holdings in Huafeng Aluminum by a total of 9.607 million shares, with four social security fund products currently holding the company's stock [1] - On the day of the report, the main capital outflow for Huafeng Aluminum was 14.7207 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 7.1321 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on August 20, 2025, including domestic prices, LME prices, price ratios, equilibrium price ratios, and profit margins [1][3][4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 20, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,100, the LME spot price was 9,653, the spot price ratio was 8.20, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, and the profit was 209.23; the domestic March price was 78,860, the LME March price was 9,750, and the price ratio was 8.09 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,190, the LME spot price was 2,767, the spot price ratio was 8.02, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.67, and the profit was - 1,787.67; the domestic March price was 22,205, the LME March price was 2,777, and the price ratio was 6.05 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,590, the LME spot price was 2,576, the spot price ratio was 7.99, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.47, and the profit was - 1,228.29; the domestic March price was 20,520, the LME March price was 2,580, and the price ratio was 7.98 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119,450, the LME spot price was 14,890, the spot price ratio was 8.02, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, and the profit was - 2,120.30 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,650, the LME spot price was 1,943, the spot price ratio was 8.58, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, and the profit was - 543.18; the domestic March price was 16,850, the LME March price was 1,985, and the price ratio was 11.21 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, March, April, and May contracts relative to the spot - month contract were - 80, - 90, - 100, and - 100 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 497, 892, 1295, and 1699 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 135, - 135, - 140, and - 135 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 335, 456, and 577 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 55, - 80, - 105, and - 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 329, 444, and 559 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 60, 75, 105, and 140 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 110, 380, 660, and 940 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was 880, and the theoretical spread was 5556 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 125 and - 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 424 and 851 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 150 and 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 179 and 294 respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 125 and 185 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 187 and 299 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 20, 2025, the cross - variety price ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai (three - continuous) market were 3.55, 3.84, 4.68, 0.92, 1.22, and 0.76 respectively, and in the London (three - continuous) market were 3.50, 3.78, 4.91, 0.93, 1.30, and 0.71 respectively [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall market for non - ferrous metals shows different trends and investment opportunities. Each metal has its own supply - demand fundamentals, inventory status, and price trends, which affect investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuates around the MA40 daily moving average, with high - level oscillations affecting downstream procurement. The current demand is mainly supported by power grid orders, and consumption is in the off - season. Domestic refined copper production increased in July and August. The supply - demand resilience is due to the low operating rate of recycled copper affected by policies. SMM social inventory increased by 8,100 tons to 133,700 tons. The upper trading resistance in the copper market is significant, and the expected trading range of Shanghai copper is 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined slightly, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 19,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. Downstream开工 is stable, and the peak of off - season inventory accumulation may be approaching. Inventory is likely to remain low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price is maintained at 19,900 yuan. Alumina has excess supply, with rising industry inventory and warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and it oscillates weakly [2] Zinc - The domestic zinc fundamentals show increasing supply and weak demand. SMM zinc social inventory continues to rise to 135,400 tons. Shanghai zinc has fallen for 4 consecutive trading days, and the 60 - day moving average is being tested. Due to repeated macro - sentiment, the direction of Shanghai zinc is unclear, and investors tend to take profits. The external inventory is at a low level, and a phased return of long positions needs to be vigilant. With the incremental supply from mines being realized as expected, the mid - term strategy is to short on rebounds, waiting for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Lead consumption shows a lackluster peak season, dragging down the price to oscillate weakly. The raw material supply is tightly constrained, and the cost strongly supports the price. Recycled lead is sold at a low price reluctantly, and in some areas, the refined - scrap price is inverted. SMM lead social inventory has slightly decreased. In late August, attention should be paid to traffic control in major lead - producing areas and routine maintenance of primary lead. After the Beginning of Autumn, the weather improves, and with the approaching of the school season, demand is expected to pick up. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton, and also pay attention to the opportunities of end - of - term call options [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel slightly corrected on Monday, with average trading. Stainless steel social inventory has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks. However, downstream terminals are still reluctant to accept high - priced stainless steel. With the increase in stainless steel production in August, supply is expected to increase, and there is still some uncertainty in the market. In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel has a premium of 2,200 yuan, imported nickel has a premium of 350 yuan, and electrowon nickel has a premium of 125 yuan. High - nickel ferro - nickel is priced at 927 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has slightly rebounded. Nickel ferro - nickel inventory is basically stable at 33,000 tons. Pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 42,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 934,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is advisable to actively short [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillates around the MA40 daily moving average. Attention should be paid to the impact of the production capacity of leading enterprises on the domestic supply side. It is expected that there is some room for inventory reduction in domestic tin social inventory. Overseas inventory is mainly at a low level. Attention should be paid to the changes in LME weak inventory and the 0 - 3 month spread after the third Wednesday. Although tin prices oscillate as a whole, there is a risk of an upward shift in the trading center. Middle and downstream enterprises should place orders at low prices. The overall oscillation range is expected to be between 263,000 - 280,000 yuan, with the high - level area above 275,000 yuan. Short - term long positions entered on corrections should be held based on the MA60 daily moving average [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price opened higher and oscillated, with active trading. The battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 84,600 yuan, with a price difference of 2,300 yuan between battery - grade and industrial - grade. The spot market has seen consecutive sharp increases, with a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan being rare in recent years. As the price increase trend is established, downstream material enterprises' inquiry enthusiasm has significantly increased due to rigid demand procurement and potential reduction in customer - supplied materials. The total market inventory is basically stable at 142,000 tons, with smelter inventory decreasing by 1,000 tons to 50,000 tons, downstream inventory remaining unchanged at 48,000 tons, and trader inventory increasing by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The sharp price fluctuation has significantly impacted and deterred downstream purchasing. The latest Australian ore price is 995 US dollars, and the ore price is generally firm. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, and the market focus is on the expectation after the shutdown of sub - standard plants for the 930 contract. In the short term, it is difficult to disprove this, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on the price. The short - term strategy is to go long with good risk control [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures slightly declined, giving back the intraday gains. The price was supported by the sentiment in the polysilicon market in the short term, and the supporting effect of policy expectations continued to show. However, recent photovoltaic industry conferences have not released new detailed information, and the improvement in the industrial silicon fundamentals is limited under the pattern of both supply and demand increasing. Therefore, the upside space is expected to be limited, and the main contract is expected to oscillate between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon recovered part of the intraday gains. At the policy level, although the news of photovoltaic - related conferences has been released, the policy details have not been substantially advanced, and the price increase driven by market sentiment is limited. At the spot level, terminal and downstream demand are stable, while polysilicon production has increased significantly. The high - inventory pattern will suppress the upside elasticity of the price. With the futures price at a premium, the increase in warehouse receipts is significant, and there is hedging pressure. The operation strategy is to go long around 50,000 yuan/ton, and there is still resistance above 53,000 yuan/ton [10]

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Xinbo Co., Ltd. is 19.16 yuan, an increase of 0.48 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume for the day was 57,194 hands, with a transaction amount of 1.09 billion yuan [1] - Xinbo Co., Ltd. operates in the non-ferrous metal industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of aluminum profiles [1] Group 2 - The company's products are primarily used in construction, automotive, and electronic appliance sectors [1] - On the evening of August 15, Xinbo Co., Ltd. announced that neither the company nor its subsidiaries have overdue external guarantees or are involved in any litigation related to guarantees [1] - The company has not incurred any losses due to judgments against it related to guarantees [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated downward with a decline in open interest. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring copper prices down. On the industrial level, Mysteel's inventory on Thursday was basically the same as on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 79,000 mark [5]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated with a continuous decline in open interest. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring aluminum prices down. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory on Thursday was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 54,000 tons from Monday. With macro - level negatives and industrial - level positives, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **沪镍**: Today, nickel prices decreased with a reduction in positions. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring nickel prices down. On the industrial level, the nickel fundamentals remained weak. With the weakening of the market and weak industrial support, pay attention to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 14, Mysteel's domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,400 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the 7th and an increase of 200 tons from the 11th [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 14, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the 7th and a decrease of 54,000 tons from the 11th [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 14, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,150 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,670 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,020 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +3,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,720 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,070 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and others [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and others [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and others [36][42][44].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading floor operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, similar to aluminum, a balanced short - term trend and low operability [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, also a balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, slightly bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and low operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, slightly bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] Report's Core View - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals market have various price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper closed with a positive trend, with the spot copper price rising to 79,475 yuan. There was a premium in Shanghai and Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference was restored to 1,100 yuan. Due to the lower - than - expected US CPI in July, the dollar weakened. It is difficult for copper prices to effectively break through 79,500 yuan, and short positions are recommended on rallies [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with the spot discount in East China narrowing to 20 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream开工 was in the off - season. The peak of aluminum ingot inventory may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price rising to 19,900 yuan. Alumina's operating capacity was at a historical high, the total industry inventory increased, and the market was in an oversupply state. There was adjustment pressure after yesterday's news hype [2] Zinc - The average price of SMM 0 zinc was 22,560 yuan/ton, with a discount to the near - month contract. Downstream demand was weak, and the term structure of Shanghai zinc was flattening. The domestic refined zinc inventory may continue to rise, and Shanghai zinc is expected to face pressure on rebounds. LME zinc inventory decreased, and the external market was relatively strong, making it difficult to open the import window. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - The refined and scrap lead prices were the same, and the cost support was strong. Consumption had no obvious improvement, and the upward momentum of lead prices was insufficient. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate widely, and long positions are recommended to be held with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market was active. The domestic anti - dumping theme was coming to an end, and nickel with a relatively poor fundamental situation will return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel iron was basically stable, and the inventory of pure nickel and stainless steel decreased, but the overall inventory level was still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short positions are recommended [6] Tin - Shanghai tin closed slightly lower at around 270,000 yuan, with a premium to the delivery month. The short - term upward trend was relatively stable. The low inventory in the external market provided support, and the domestic high social inventory had the motivation to reduce. Short - term long positions are recommended at low prices [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the market was active. The trading lacked a clear direction, and the long - liquidation was obvious. The spot price was 81,000 yuan. The downstream inquiry was active, and the spot market transaction improved. The total market inventory decreased slightly, and there was obvious transfer of goods ownership. Risk management should be noted due to abnormal price fluctuations [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon decreased with increasing positions, closing at 8,600 yuan/ton. The self - discipline of production capacity was difficult, and the sentiment was affected by related varieties. The inventory in the delivery warehouse increased significantly, and there was still hedging pressure at high levels. However, the expected increase in polysilicon production provided some demand support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,300 - 9,000 yuan/ton in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon decreased with decreasing positions, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton. The N - type re - feed price was stable. The production in August was significantly increased, and the inventory increase restricted the spot price increase. The PS2511 contract is expected to operate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and short - selling at the lower end of the range is recommended with caution [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term copper price may fluctuate strongly due to factors such as the expected Fed rate cut, tight copper raw material supply, and the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs [1]. - The short - term aluminum price may face the pressure of digesting inventory accumulation after the upward movement, supported by the relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the expected "anti - involution" policy [3]. - The short - term lead price may be difficult to fall due to the possible structural disturbances in the LME market and the narrowing supply [4]. - The short - term zinc price may be difficult to fall under the support of low LME warehouse receipts, although the medium - term industrial surplus situation remains unchanged [6]. - The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in a certain range due to the short - term supply - demand weakness [7]. - The short - term nickel price may have a slight rebound but still has the pressure of correction as the downstream demand improvement is limited [9]. - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, while holders can choose the entry point according to their own operations, and pay attention to industry chain information and market sentiment [11]. - For alumina, it is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market fades [14]. - The short - term stainless steel market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may show a strong - side fluctuating trend [16]. - The price upward space of casting aluminum alloy is relatively limited due to the weak supply - demand situation in the off - season and the large difference between futures and spot prices [18]. Summary by Metals Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 1.17% to $9840/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79410 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 700 to 155000 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 2.6 million tons [1]. - Market: The domestic copper spot import loss was within 100 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage slightly decreased [1]. - Outlook: The short - term copper price may fluctuate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 78800 - 80000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9700 - 9900 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 1.41% to $2622/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20800 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.45 to 43.25 million tons [3]. - Market: The spot discount in East China narrowed, and the trading improved [3]. - Outlook: The short - term aluminum price may face inventory digestion pressure, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20700 - 20900 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2590 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.21% to 16920 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2004.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.43 million tons [4]. - Market: The lead ore port inventory increased, and the supply narrowed slightly, while the downstream consumption pressure was large [4]. - Outlook: The short - term lead price may be difficult to fall [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.17% to 22637 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2829/ton [6]. - Inventory: The domestic social inventory continued to increase to 11.92 million tons [6]. - Market: The zinc ore was in a loose situation, and the LME market had structural disturbances [6]. - Outlook: The short - term zinc price may be difficult to fall [6]. Tin - Price: On August 12, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 270280 yuan/ton, up 0.67% [7]. - Inventory: The SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 71 to 7397 tons, and LME inventory increased by 15 to 1765 tons [7]. - Market: The supply recovery expectation increased, but the short - term smelting was under raw material pressure, and the domestic consumption was weak while the overseas demand was strong [7]. - Outlook: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton for domestic and 31000 - 34000 dollars/ton for LME [7]. Nickel - Price: The price of high - nickel iron increased, and the refined nickel spot trading was still weak [9]. - Market: The short - term macro - atmosphere was positive, but the downstream demand improvement was limited [9]. - Outlook: The short - term nickel price may have a slight rebound but still face correction pressure, with the SHFE nickel main contract operating in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index increased by 2.57%, and the LC2511 contract closed up 1.88% [11]. - Market: The bullish sentiment driven by the shutdown of large domestic mines was stronger than the fundamental change, and the capital game had high uncertainty [11]. - Outlook: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders choose the entry point according to their own operations, with the LC2511 contract operating in the range of 79000 - 87000 yuan/ton [11][12]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index increased by 4.12% to 3334 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Shandong and Shanxi decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - Market: The ore supply was disturbed, but the over - capacity pattern remained [14]. - Outlook: It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment fades, with the domestic main contract AO2509 operating in the range of 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13200 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [16]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 110.63 million tons, and the 300 - series inventory decreased by 2.82% [16]. - Market: The market was short of goods, and the sentiment of holding back goods increased [16]. - Outlook: The short - term stainless steel market is expected to be optimistic, and the price may fluctuate strongly [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract slightly increased to 20140 yuan/ton, and the domestic mainstream ADC12 average price decreased by 25 yuan/ton [18]. - Inventory: The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased to 3.15 million tons [18]. - Market: The supply - demand was weak in the off - season, and the cost support was strong [18]. - Outlook: The price upward space is relatively limited [18].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved due to factors such as strong July auto and new - energy vehicle sales in China, possible 3 interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the confirmation of the meeting time between US and Russian presidents. However, the central bank's significant net currency withdrawal and the month - on - month decline in auto production and sales in July also impact the market. Overall, copper prices are in a volatile state [1]. - Technically, the short - term may be volatile, and the medium - term fundamentals are not good. There is an oversupply of copper in the US and weak spot demand during the off - season in China [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - Most non - ferrous metals rose due to improved market sentiment. Shanghai copper, international copper, and domestic spot copper rose, while London copper fell. The closing price of Shanghai copper was 79,020, and the spot price was 79,190, with a spot premium of 170 points. The spot basis premium rose slightly to 150 points, but spot trading was poor. LME spot discount widened to - 70 dollars, indicating weak foreign spot demand [1]. - The inventory of US copper and London copper increased significantly this week, and the inventory of Shanghai copper increased slightly, showing insufficient spot demand. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly, and the Yangshan copper premium decreased slightly to 43.5 dollars, indicating weak domestic spot demand. The ratio of London copper to Shanghai copper remained at 8.09, and the premium of international copper over Shanghai copper rose to 306 points, with the foreign exchange ratio higher than the domestic one [1]. Technical Analysis - London copper fluctuated slightly downward, trading around 9,755 dollars. Shanghai copper rose sharply, closing at 79,020, with an improved technical form. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper both increased, showing strong market sentiment [2]. Data Monitoring | Date | RMB Exchange Rate | Spot Premium (Yuan/ton) | Yangshan Copper Premium (Dollars/ton) | LME Copper - Futures - Spot Spread | Main Contract Shanghai - London Ratio | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Aug 5 | 7.1889 | 250 | 45.5 | - 53 | 8.09 | | Aug 6 | 7.1850 | 180 | 45.5 | - 67 | 8.15 | | Aug 7 | 7.1810 | 180 | 45.5 | - 63 | 8.10 | | Aug 8 | 7.1894 | 210 | 45.5 | - 66 | 8.09 | | Aug 11 | 7.1862 | 170 | 43.5 | - 70 | 8.09 | [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper: With expectations of a Fed rate cut, overseas risk appetite is decent, and the domestic equity market is strong. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight in the short - term, but the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs creates upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may be volatile and tend to rise. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper today is 78400 - 79600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M it is 9650 - 9850 dollars/ton [2] - Aluminum: The domestic commodity atmosphere is supported by the "anti - involution" policy, and there is an expectation of a Fed rate cut overseas. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is relatively low, and external demand is resilient, but downstream consumption is weak and trade situations are changeable. Short - term aluminum prices may be volatile. The reference range for the domestic main contract today is 20500 - 20700 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M it is 2560 - 2610 dollars/ton [4] - Lead: In August, the port inventory of lead ore has increased, and the operating rate of primary lead has recovered. The raw material inventory of secondary lead remains low, and its operating rate is slowly rising. The social inventory of lead ingots has slightly decreased, and supply has slightly narrowed. However, downstream consumption pressure is high, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has dropped rapidly. It is expected that lead prices will show a weak and volatile trend [5] - Zinc: The zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, TC continues to rise, and the zinc ore supply remains loose. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continues to increase, smelters have high production plans, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement, so the domestic zinc ingot market remains in surplus. Although the mid - term industrial surplus situation remains unchanged, the short - term decline of zinc prices is difficult due to the support of low LME warehouse receipts [7] - Tin: The supply of tin is expected to recover significantly in the fourth quarter, but the demand is in the off - season, and the traditional consumption areas are weak. Although AI has increased some demand, it has limited impact on overall demand. The short - term supply and demand are both weak, and the room for further price increase is limited [8] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore needs time to recover, and the surplus pressure of nickel iron still exists. The short - term macro - atmosphere is positive, and the price of stainless steel has risen steadily, driving the nickel price to rise slightly, but the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is still pressure for price correction [10] - Lithium Carbonate: After the suspension of the lithium mine in Ningde Times, the market expects a shortage of domestic lithium carbonate supply. The contract limit - up on Monday, and the bullish sentiment is expected to continue on Tuesday. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders of lithium carbonate can seize entry points according to their operations [12] - Alumina: The implementation of supply - side contraction policies needs to be observed, and the over - capacity pattern of alumina may be difficult to change. The short - term sentiment for long positions in commodities has declined, and the shortage of circulating spot goods is gradually easing. It is recommended to short at high prices according to market sentiment. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [15] - Stainless Steel: With the start of the off - peak to peak season transition, some specifications are in short supply, and the macro - atmosphere is positive. The spot and futures prices of stainless steel in August may be volatile and tend to rise [17] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is still in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although the cost side provides strong support, the upward space for prices is relatively limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed down 0.42% to 9726 dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 78810 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 150 to 155700 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 7.7%. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory slightly decreased, bonded area inventory slightly increased, and SHFE copper warrants increased by 0.2 to 2.3 million tons [2] - Market: The spot in Shanghai has a premium of 150 yuan/ton over the futures, and the supply is tight. In Guangdong, the inventory increased, and the spot discount to the futures narrowed to 20 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import had a loss of about 100 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference expanded to 1070 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed down 1.11% to 2586 dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20610 yuan/ton [4] - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas increased by 2.3 million tons to 58.7 million tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 0.45 million tons to 14.7 million tons. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 47.6 million tons [4] - Market: The spot in East China had a discount of 50 yuan/ton to the futures, and the trading was average. The domestic copper spot import had a loss of about 100 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [4] Lead - Price: The Shanghai lead index closed up 0.23% to 16885 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 11.5 to 2010 dollars/ton [5] - Inventory: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 5.87 million tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.43 million tons [5] - Market: The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 25 yuan/ton, and the import loss of lead ingots was - 769.7 yuan/ton [5] Zinc - Price: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.37% to 22598 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 23.5 to 2840 dollars/ton [7] - Inventory: The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continued to increase to 11.92 million tons, and the LME zinc registered warrants continued to decline [7] - Market: The zinc ore supply is loose, the domestic zinc ingot market is in surplus, and the LME market has structural disturbances [7] Tin - Supply: The mining in Myanmar's Wa State is expected to resume in the fourth quarter, and the supply of tin ore in Yunnan has improved, with the operating rate rising to 59.64% [8] - Demand: The downstream is in the off - season, traditional consumption areas are weak, and although AI has increased some demand, it has limited impact on overall demand [8] - Inventory: As of August 8, 2025, the social inventory of tin ingots decreased by 383 tons to 10278 tons [8] Nickel - Ore: The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is recovering slowly, and the short - term premium remains at 24 - 25 dollars/wet ton [10] - Iron: The sentiment in the nickel - iron market has improved, but the surplus pressure still exists [10] - Price: Nickel prices fluctuated upward on Monday [10] Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index rose 11.46% to 77832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed up 5.25% to 81000 yuan [12] - Market: After the suspension of the lithium mine in Ningde Times, the market expects a shortage of supply, and the contract limit - up on Monday [12] Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 0.63% to 3202 yuan/ton [15] - Inventory: The futures warrants increased by 0.42 million tons to 3.04 million tons [15] - Market: The import window is closed, and it is recommended to short at high prices [15] Stainless Steel - Price: The main contract of stainless steel closed at 13225 yuan/ton, up 1.85% [17] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 110.63 million tons, and the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 2.82% [17] - Market: With the start of the off - peak to peak season transition, some specifications are in short supply, and prices may rise [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract closed up 0.12% to 20135 yuan/ton [19] - Inventory: The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased to 3.13 million tons [19] - Market: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand, and the upward price space is limited [19]