中信证券认为，该协议反映出美国高度重视稀土永磁供给的独立性，以及美国本土生产镨钕金属的高成 本，进一步凸显出稀土资源战略价值。需求方面，新能源汽车、空调、工业机器人等需求持续增长，人 形机器人商业化进程加速有望打开稀土永磁远期需求增长空间。此外，出口逐步恢复叠加东南亚雨季下 供给刚性提升，稀土价格有望稳中有进，进而带动产业链公司盈利能力持续提升。 有色ETF基金紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指数化投资标的。 截至2025年7月14日 09:36，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨1.78%，成分股中金黄金(600489)上 涨7.79%，北方稀土(600111)上涨6.70%，盛和资源(600392)上涨5.34%，天齐锂业(002466)，金力永磁 (300748)等个股跟涨。有色ETF基金(159880)上涨1.62%， 冲击3连涨。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US copper tariff policy has increased market volatility, and the price differences between US copper, LME copper, and SHFE copper are expected to widen. There is a risk of correction for LME copper and SHFE copper. [2] - The aluminum market is affected by the strong domestic commodity atmosphere, but the expected increase in aluminum ingot inventory in July may resist the upward movement of aluminum prices. [4] - The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of SHFE lead is expected to be limited due to weak domestic consumption. [5] - The zinc price has rebounded, but the expected increase in zinc ingot supply and limited consumption may restrict its upward space. [7] - The tin market is in a stalemate between supply shortage and limited acceptance of high - price raw materials by the end - users, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. [8][9] - The nickel price is affected by macro - sentiment, but the weak demand for stainless steel and the high premium of nickel price over nickel - iron limit its upward space, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies. [10] - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate is weak, with increased production and inventory, and the upward space of lithium price is limited. [12] - The alumina market has an over - capacity pattern, and it is recommended to short on rallies, with the price anchored to the cost. [15] - The stainless steel market shows a short - term improvement, but the future trend depends on the implementation of anti - involution policies and the substantial improvement of the fundamentals. [17] - The casting aluminum alloy market has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and the futures price faces upward pressure. [19] 3. Summary by Metals Copper - Market performance: LME copper rose 0.23% to $9682/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78,590 yuan/ton. [2] - Inventory: LME inventory increased by 975 tons to 108,100 tons, and domestic refined copper social inventory and bonded - area inventory both increased slightly. [2] - Price outlook: There is a risk of correction for LME copper and SHFE copper, and the price difference between US copper and others is expected to widen. The operating range of SHFE copper is 77,000 - 79,200 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9,400 - 9,800 dollars/ton. [2] Aluminum - Market performance: LME aluminum rose 0.15% to $2606/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,760 yuan/ton. The position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased. [4] - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased, while LME aluminum inventory increased. [4] - Price outlook: The expected increase in aluminum ingot inventory in July may resist the upward movement of aluminum prices. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2,570 - 2,640 dollars/ton. [4] Lead - Market performance: SHFE lead index rose 0.34% to 17,238 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2068/ton. [5] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased slightly. [5] - Price outlook: The lead price shows a relatively strong trend, but the increase of SHFE lead is expected to be limited due to weak domestic consumption. [5] Zinc - Market performance: SHFE zinc index rose 1.28% to 22,347 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2767/ton. [7] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased slightly. [7] - Price outlook: The zinc price has rebounded, but the expected increase in zinc ingot supply and limited consumption may restrict its upward space. [7] Tin - Market performance: SHFE tin rose 1.46% to 266,740 yuan/ton. [8] - Supply - demand situation: The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand is in the off - season, with weak procurement intention. [8] - Price outlook: The domestic tin price is expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price between 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton. [9] Nickel - Market performance: SHFE nickel rose 1.92% to 121,720 yuan/ton, and LME nickel rose 1.90% to $15,285/ton. [10] - Fundamental contradiction: The weak demand for stainless steel leads to a decline in nickel - iron price, and the high premium of nickel price over nickel - iron limits its upward space. [10] - Price outlook: It is recommended to sell short on rallies, with the operating range of SHFE nickel at 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and that of LME nickel 3M at 14,500 - 16,000 dollars/ton. [10] Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The MMLC index rose 0.32%, and the LC2509 contract fell 0.34%. [12] - Supply - demand situation: Production increased by 3.8% to 18,813 tons, and inventory increased by 1.8% to 140,793 tons. [12] - Price outlook: The upward space of lithium price is limited. The operating range of the LC2509 contract is 62,900 - 65,300 yuan/ton. [12] Alumina - Market performance: The alumina index rose 2.44% to 3,186 yuan/ton. [14] - Cost and price: The price is anchored to the cost, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton. [15] Stainless Steel - Market performance: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.74% to 12,865 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. [17] - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.93%. [17] - Price outlook: The future trend depends on the implementation of anti - involution policies and the substantial improvement of the fundamentals. [17] Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market performance: The AD2511 contract rose 0.55% to 19,940 yuan/ton. [19] - Inventory: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions increased. [19] - Price outlook: The futures price faces upward pressure due to weak supply and demand in the off - season. [19]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in non-ferrous metals prices are influenced by supply-side reforms in China and the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. starting August 1, 2025, which has created a divergence in copper prices between the U.S. and China [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The supply-side reforms in China have benefitted traditional industries like aluminum, steel, and coal, leading to price increases due to low inventory levels [1]. - Following the U.S. tariff announcement, copper prices in New York rose over 2%, while domestic copper prices in China fell, indicating market concerns about reduced global demand for copper [1][7]. - The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Index showed a strong upward trend initially but experienced a significant drop during the tariff announcement period, reflecting market volatility [1]. Group 2: Financing Trends - As of July 9, 2025, the financing balance for the non-ferrous metals sector increased by 9.64 billion, indicating strong investor interest despite market fluctuations [4][6]. - The construction materials sector saw the highest financing balance growth rate at 1.43%, followed by non-ferrous metals at 1.22% [4][6]. Group 3: ETF Strategies - The non-ferrous metals ETFs are relatively small in scale, with three funds exceeding 4 billion in size, including the leading Southern CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals ETF [8][10]. - The Dachen Non-Ferrous Metals Futures ETF is sensitive to price fluctuations due to its direct tracking of futures contracts, making it suitable for investors who closely monitor commodity prices [10][12]. - The Southern CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metals ETF, with a scale exceeding 50 billion, is favored by investors for its comprehensive coverage of the non-ferrous metals sector [10][13]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term risks from U.S. tariffs and seasonal demand fluctuations, supply constraints are expected to support copper prices in the medium term [7]. - The long-term demand for copper and aluminum is anticipated to increase, driven by structural changes in downstream consumption, which may elevate the price stability of these metals [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US copper tariff policy has increased market volatility, and there are still uncertainties in current policies, with risks of fluctuations remaining. In July, China's refined copper production is expected to remain high, downstream demand is weak in the off - season, but increased exports may keep inventories stable. Overseas hidden inventories may become more visible [1]. - The aluminum price oscillated and rebounded. Domestically, the commodity atmosphere is strong, but the sustainability of the bullish sentiment is questionable. Overseas trade situations are uncertain. Aluminum ingot inventories are low, but supply may increase in July, which will resist the upward movement of aluminum prices [3]. - The lead price is generally strong, but the increase in Shanghai lead is expected to be limited due to weak domestic consumption [5]. - The zinc price is under pressure as the zinc ore supply is high, the TC is rising, the expected increase in zinc ingot production is high, and the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure is downward [7]. - The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited. The domestic tin price is expected to oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price between 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton [8][9]. - The nickel price is weak. The current main contradiction lies in the ferro - nickel production line. The stainless - steel demand is weak, causing the ferro - nickel price to fall, and the nickel price is over - valued compared to ferro - nickel. It is recommended to short at high prices [10]. - The lithium carbonate price has a rebound trend, but the supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly. If there is no macro - level bullish factor, the upward space of the lithium price is limited [12]. - The alumina futures price is still anchored by cost, and the ore price is the core contradiction. It is recommended to short at high prices [15]. - The stainless - steel market has a short - term oversupply situation, and the weak operation of the spot market is expected to continue [17]. - The supply and demand of cast aluminum alloy are both weak in the off - season. The price is mainly affected by the aluminum price and faces resistance to rise [19]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 1.22% to $9,665/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 80,030 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 5,100 tons to 102,500 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.25 tons to 1.9 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss was about 1,100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference slightly widened to 1,640 yuan/ton [1]. - **Outlook**: The Shanghai copper main contract is expected to operate between 77,000 - 80,800 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M between 9,400 - 10,000 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.53% to $2,577/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,540 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory increased by 13,200 tons to 384,350 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 tons to 4.7 tons [3]. - **Market**: The three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.4 tons, and the spot in Guangdong shifted to a discount to the futures [3]. - **Outlook**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract is expected to operate between 20,200 - 20,700 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M between 2,520 - 2,620 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - **Price**: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.26% to 17,168 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,046.5/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 4.77 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 26 tons [5]. - **Market**: The refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton, and the domestic social inventory slightly increased to 5.48 tons [5]. - **Outlook**: The lead price is generally strong, but the increase in Shanghai lead is limited [5]. Zinc - **Price**: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.29% to 21,985 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2,691.5/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.79 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.06 tons [7]. - **Market**: The domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.91 tons, and the LME zinc Cash - 3S structure declined [7]. - **Outlook**: The zinc price is under pressure [7]. Tin - **Price**: On July 8, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 265,480 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [8]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange registered tin warehouse receipts decreased by 146 tons to 6,742 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 100 tons to 1,985 tons [8]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore in Myanmar is recovering slowly, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The procurement willingness is weak [8]. - **Outlook**: The domestic tin price is expected to oscillate between 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price between 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton [9]. Nickel - **Price**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 119,650 yuan/ton, down 0.88%, and the LME main contract closed at $15,015/ton, down 0.76% [10]. - **Market**: The ferro - nickel price has fallen, and the ore price has weakened. The nickel price is over - valued compared to ferro - nickel [10]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short at high prices, with the Shanghai nickel main contract expected to operate between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14,500 - 16,000 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC index closed at 62,301 yuan, up 0.36%, and the LC2509 contract closed at 63,880 yuan, up 0.35% [12]. - **Market**: The supply - demand relationship has not changed significantly, and the upward space of the price is limited without macro - level bullish factors [12]. - **Outlook**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2509 contract is expected to operate between 61,900 - 65,000 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 8, 2025, the alumina index rose 2.05% to 3,090 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts were 1.86 tons, unchanged [14]. - **Market**: The spot prices in most regions rose, the import window was closed, and the aluminum ore price was stable [14][15]. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 expected to operate between 2,800 - 3,300 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,700 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [17]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory was 111,410 tons, down 123 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 115.68 tons, up 0.20% [17]. - **Market**: The spot market trading improved slightly, but the overall atmosphere was still dull. The supply - demand imbalance persists [17]. - **Outlook**: The weak operation of the spot market is expected to continue [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract closed down 0.51% to 19,850 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots in three places increased by about 0.15 tons to 2.4 tons [19]. - **Market**: The spot market trading was divided, and the price was mainly affected by the aluminum price [19]. - **Outlook**: The price faces resistance to rise [19].

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for June 2025 is reported at 110.8 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.2% [1][3] - The index has shown a moderate recovery over the past two months, indicating a stable overall operation in the commodity market, supported by positive signals from US-China trade talks and enhanced domestic counter-cyclical policies [1][3] Commodity Price Index Summary - **Overall Index**: CBPI at 110.8 points, up 0.5% month-on-month, down 5.2% year-on-year [1][3] - **Energy Price Index**: 97.3 points, up 1.0% month-on-month, down 12.9% year-on-year [3][7] - **Chemical Price Index**: 104.3 points, up 1.4% month-on-month, down 12.6% year-on-year [3][6] - **Black Metal Price Index**: 76.6 points, down 2.6% month-on-month, down 11.8% year-on-year [3][8] - **Non-Ferrous Metal Price Index**: 128.8 points, up 0.8% month-on-month, down 2.0% year-on-year [3][6] - **Mineral Price Index**: 73.6 points, down 2.6% month-on-month, down 11.9% year-on-year [3][8] - **Agricultural Product Price Index**: 98.1 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, up 2.2% year-on-year [3][7] Price Changes of Key Commodities - **Methanol**: Price increased by 7.8% month-on-month [4][6] - **Diesel**: Price increased by 5.4% month-on-month [4][7] - **Xylene**: Price increased by 5.0% month-on-month [4][6] - **Natural Rubber**: Price decreased by 6.9% month-on-month [6][7] - **Coke**: Price decreased by 10.5% month-on-month [5][7] Market Analysis - The chemical price index's rise is attributed to increasing international oil prices, which have pushed up the prices of chemical fibers and basic chemicals [6] - The non-ferrous metal price index's increase is linked to a weaker US dollar, which has positively impacted the prices of metals priced in dollars [6] - The energy price index's rebound is primarily due to rising international crude oil prices, which have strengthened the cost support for products like gasoline and diesel [7] - The black metal price index's decline is driven by falling costs of raw materials like coke and iron ore, coupled with insufficient downstream demand [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company Limited, has announced the status of its convertible bonds, including issuance, listing, conversion, and price adjustments, as well as the changes in its share capital due to bond conversions [2][3][4][5][6][7]. Group 1: Convertible Bond Issuance and Listing - The company issued 38 million convertible bonds with a total value of 380 million yuan, approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on July 20, 2020 [2]. - The bonds were listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on August 14, 2020, under the name "Zhongjin Convertible Bonds" with the code "127020.SZ" [3]. Group 2: Conversion and Price Adjustment - The convertible bonds became convertible into shares starting January 25, 2021 [4]. - The initial conversion price was set at 4.71 yuan per share, which was adjusted to 4.63 yuan on June 18, 2021, following a dividend distribution [5]. - Further adjustments were made, reducing the conversion price to 4.54 yuan on June 14, 2022, and to 4.44 yuan on June 28, 2023 [6]. - The conversion price will be adjusted again to 4.38 yuan on July 9, 2024, and to 4.29 yuan on June 26, 2025, after respective dividend distributions [6]. Group 3: Conversion and Share Capital Changes - In the second quarter of 2025, 217 bonds were converted, resulting in the issuance of 4,952 shares, leaving a remaining balance of 30,225,303 bonds valued at 3,022,530,300 yuan as of June 30, 2025 [6][7].

有色金属日报 2025-6-16 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 上周铜价冲高回落，伦铜微跌 0.24%至 9647 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78350 元/吨。产业层面， 上周三大交易所库存环比减少 1.8 万吨，中上期所库存减少 0.5 至 10.2 万吨，LME 库存减少 1.8 至 11.4 万吨，COMEX 库存增加 0.6 至 17.6 万吨。上海保税区库存增 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term due to a relatively neutral sentiment, tight raw - material supply, but weakening consumer resilience [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to rise, but the upward height is limited because of improved domestic commodity atmosphere, inventory depletion, and the impact of US tariff policies [3]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weakly operational due to weak downstream consumption and high inventory of recycled lead products [4]. - Zinc prices may continue to decline if there is no production - control move from the industrial side, considering the surplus of zinc ore and weak terminal consumption [6]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the supply side faces uncertainties and downstream has a strong demand for low - price procurement [7][8]. - Nickel fundamentals have slightly improved in the short term, but are bearish in the long run, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate as there is a lack of marginal changes in supply and demand [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by costs, and it is recommended to short lightly on rebounds [13]. - The future trend of stainless steel depends on whether downstream demand can initiate substantial restocking [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.45% to $9725/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79030 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 2000 to 120400 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 3.4 million tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss widened, and the scrap - copper substitution advantage increased [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.44% to $2494/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20050 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.1 to 35.6 million tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 36.0 million tons [3]. - **Market**: The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rise, and the spot premium in East China remained flat [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.67% to 16877 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1987/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 4.22 million tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 5.09 million tons [4]. - **Market**: Downstream battery enterprises' production rate dropped to 60%, and the production rate of primary lead smelting rose to 70% [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.36% to 21715 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2639.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 0.31 million tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 8.17 million tons [6]. - **Market**: Zinc ore remained in surplus, and zinc smelters' profits increased [6]. Tin - **Price**: On June 10, 2025, SHFE tin main contract closed at 263420 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [7]. - **Supply**: It is expected that domestic tin ore imports will decrease by 500 - 1000 tons in June, and the smelting enterprises' operating rate is low [7]. - **Demand**: Downstream enterprises' orders did not increase significantly, and the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices decreased as prices rose [8]. Nickel - **Price**: SHFE nickel main contract closed at 121360 yuan/ton, up 0.05%, and LME main contract closed at $15530/ton, down 0.42% [9]. - **Supply**: Nickel ore supply was tight, and some Indonesian smelters reduced production [9]. - **Market**: The price of nickel - iron rebounded, and the price of nickel sulfate was expected to strengthen [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index was 60,537 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed at 60,760 yuan, up 0.10% [11]. - **Market**: The contract positions decreased, and the main contract was expected to switch to LC2509 [11]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 0.21% to 2883 yuan/ton, and the Shandong spot price was 3275 yuan/ton, with a premium of 337 yuan/ton over the 07 contract [12][13]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts were 8.7 million tons, a decrease of 0.33 million tons [13]. - **Market**: The bauxite price in Guinea decreased, and it is recommended to short lightly on rebounds [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12460 yuan/ton, down 1.42%, and spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures inventory was 120039 tons, a decrease of 1624, and the social inventory increased by 2.06% [15]. - **Market**: The market competition was fierce after the price - limit policy was lifted, and downstream users held a wait - and - see attitude [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to address heavy metal environmental safety issues while promoting high-quality development in the non-ferrous metal industry [1][2] - The meeting highlighted the importance of improving political awareness and responsibility regarding heavy metal pollution prevention, aiming to explore new pathways for high-quality development in the non-ferrous metal sector [2][3] - A shift from "centralized inspection" to "key remediation" is advocated, with plans to close down non-compliant enterprises and attract leading companies in the non-ferrous metal industry to optimize the regional industrial layout [3] Group 2 - The meeting approved the "Action Plan for Deepening Heavy Metal Environmental Safety Hazard Investigation and Remediation (2025-2030)" [4] - Various working groups reported on their progress, indicating a collaborative effort among different departments and local governments to address heavy metal pollution [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Recommend shorting zinc as the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the "rush to export" and the tariff implementation, and the supply from the mining end is increasing in the second quarter. There is a possibility that the weak demand will be transmitted upstream, exacerbating the surplus of zinc and pushing the Shanghai zinc price below 21,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Short copper above 79,500 yuan/ton with a stop - loss at this price, as there is strong resistance at the previous downward gap and the consumption is weakening [1]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market sentiment**: The US premium accelerates the outflow of LME copper inventory, raising the spot premium. The market is trading on the expectation of the US raising metal tariffs. The Sino - US manufacturing PMI is mostly in the contraction range, and the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in June. The market is waiting for the US inflation data [1]. - **Domestic supply and demand**: The import ore TC is below $40 and may not decline further. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference may stabilize at 1,200 yuan due to weakening consumption. The domestic refined copper output is expected to increase. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong has narrowed, and the social inventory is oscillating at 149,500 tons. The domestic consumption is weakening, and the refinery's export is expected to increase [1]. - **Overseas situation**: Peru's copper output is expected to increase slightly to 2.8 million tons this year. The KK copper mine in Congo - Kinshasa may resume production at the end of the month. Attention should be paid to the LME visible inventory and the US copper price [1]. - **Trend**: Short - position holders should consider changing contracts, and stop - loss above 79,500 yuan [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina has increased after the profit repair, with the operating capacity increasing by 1.35 million tons to 90.65 million tons last week. The inventory has decreased by 29,000 tons to 3.133 million tons. The spot market has few transactions, and the ex - factory price in the northwest has dropped to 3,200 yuan. The alumina market has an over - supply situation. Consider shorting on rallies in the futures market. The price of Guinea ore is stable at $75, and the downside of alumina is limited [1]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is around 4.3 million tons, with no expected reduction in the short term [1]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of related enterprises has increased by 17 percentage points to 60.9%. The demand for aluminum plates and strips has weakened, and the operating rate of some enterprises has decreased. The aluminum cable sector's enthusiasm for procurement and production has declined. The operating rate of the aluminum profile sector is divided, with the construction and photovoltaic sectors weak, while the 3C and power sectors have some support [1]. - **Inventory and spot**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has decreased by 42,000 tons to 477,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods has increased by 2,000 tons to 180,000 tons. The inventory is at a low level in recent years. The spot premium in East China has narrowed by 40 yuan to 70 yuan, the premium in Central China has narrowed by 50 yuan to 10 yuan, and the discount in South China has widened by 20 yuan to 60 yuan. The processing fee of South China aluminum rods has slightly decreased to below 300 yuan [1]. - **Trend**: The market risk preference is improving, but the center of the Shanghai aluminum price has slightly declined. The aluminum market is in a de - stocking phase, but the demand may face challenges. The Shanghai aluminum price faces resistance at 20,300 yuan. Consider short - selling on rallies [1]. Zinc - **Market situation**: The Shanghai zinc price has been in a narrow - range consolidation, and the technical pattern is at the end of a triangle. The zinc spot import window is closed [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The overseas zinc ore output is expected to increase in the second quarter, and the import volume of zinc concentrate in May is expected to remain high. The smelter's raw material inventory is at a high level of 27.72 days. The CZSPT group's import zinc concentrate procurement dollar processing fee guidance price for the third quarter is in the range of $80 - 100 per dry ton. The smelters are resuming production after maintenance, and the refined zinc output in June is expected to increase by 40,000 tons to over 590,000 tons. The social inventory has increased by 4,300 tons to 81,700 tons, and the LME zinc inventory has decreased to 137,000 tons, with a deep discount of $35.6 per dry ton for 0 - 3 months, indicating weak overseas demand. The import window may open briefly in June if the US dollar index weakens [1]. - **Consumption**: The "rush to export" is ending, and the consumption expectation is under pressure. The domestic special bonds are being issued faster than expected, but the infrastructure projects' physical demand will be realized after the rainy season. The photovoltaic installation peak has ended, and the "trade - in" policy has over - drawn the demand. Both domestic and overseas demand are under pressure in June [1]. - **Trend**: In June, the supply is increasing while the demand is weak. The inventory is increasing, and the price is falling with increasing positions. Hold short positions established at previous high levels [1]. Lead - **Market situation**: The lead price has been in a narrow - range fluctuation due to insufficient demand and the inverted refined - scrap price [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The SMM lead social inventory has increased to 53,400 tons, and the SMM 1 lead average price has a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 236,300 tons, with a discount of $26.98 per dry ton for 0 - 3 months. Some recycled lead smelters have reduced production due to environmental inspections and losses. The primary lead smelters' production increase space is limited due to raw material shortages. The supply of waste batteries is in short supply, and the import loss of lead ingots is still over 600 yuan/ton [1]. - **Consumption**: The battery enterprises' operating rate has recovered after the holiday, but the overall consumption is still weak. Lead - acid battery enterprises are willing to buy at low prices. The automobile battery brands are promoting sales, and there are rumors of price increases for electric bicycle batteries. The dealers are mainly digesting inventory [1]. - **Trend**: The price is supported by cost and pressured by consumption. The Shanghai lead price is expected to fluctuate between 16,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures market**: The Shanghai nickel price has rebounded, and the trading volume is light. The Shanghai stainless steel price is slightly weaker, and the closing price is at 12,705 yuan, with stable positions [1]. - **Macro and demand**: Geopolitical and tariff - related changes have led to an improvement in risk preference, reducing the short - and medium - term concerns about demand decline. The spot market transactions are mainly for rigid demand [1]. - **Spot and supply**: The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,400 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 7,100 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 150 yuan. The loading of nickel mines in the Philippines has been delayed due to rain. The price of high - grade nickel ore is at 953 yuan per nickel point. The nickel ore inventory has increased by 2,000 tons to 31,500 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 2,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has increased by 16,000 tons to 983,000 tons [1]. - **Conclusion and strategy**: Wait for the opportunity to short as the Shanghai nickel price rebounds [1]. Tin - **Market situation**: The tin price has rebounded significantly, with the LME tin price rising by more than 6.7%. The Shanghai tin weighted price has returned above 262,000 yuan after recovering the annual line. The market is focusing on the tight supply of tin concentrate in China [1]. - **Supply**: A smelter in Wa State may not be able to produce large quantities in the short term, and the inventory is low. The supply in southern Myanmar may be affected by environmental protection, and the domestic tin concentrate supply is expected to be tight for a longer time. The domestic refined tin output in May decreased by 0.3% to 14,670 tons and is expected to further decrease to 13,800 tons in June. The supply of recycled tin in Jiangxi is also restricted by raw materials [1]. - **Consumption**: The SMM tin social inventory has decreased by 216 tons to 8,856 tons. The consumption is weakening, and the orders of photovoltaic and electronic enterprises have decreased. The LME tin inventory has decreased to 2,440 tons, with a spot premium of $50 for 0 - 3 months [1]. - **Trend**: The tin price is expected to continue to oscillate to balance the domestic supply and demand situation. Pay attention to the overseas consumption. Consider reducing some short positions or moving to far - month contracts when the Shanghai tin price rebounds close to the previous high of 265,000 yuan [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures market**: The lithium carbonate futures price has been oscillating at a low level, and the price has been fluctuating around 60,000 yuan. The trading volume is active, and the positions have decreased by 8,000 lots to 566,000 lots [1]. - **Spot performance**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate price is 60,300 yuan, with a weekly stable price. The price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade is 1,600 yuan. Some non - integrated lithium salt plants have increased their operating rates after hedging [1]. - **Macro and demand**: The material factories are generally producing actively. The energy - storage orders have recovered, but the power orders have slightly decreased. The overall weekly production has increased [1]. - **Supply factors**: The total market inventory has increased by 800 tons to 132,400 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 540 tons to 41,000 tons, the smelter inventory has increased to 57,000 tons, and the intermediate inventory has increased by 500 tons. The Australian ore price is $607.5 [1]. - **Trend**: The downward trend of the lithium carbonate futures price has slowed down. Consider participating in short - term rebound trading [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: The price has rebounded from a low level of 7,000 yuan/ton to above 7,400 yuan/ton due to oversold technical indicators [1]. - **Spot**: The SMM Huayangtong 553 silicon liquid average price is 8,150 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton week - on - week. The downstream replenishment sentiment is weak [1]. - **Supply**: A large factory in Xinjiang has resumed production, and the operating rate in other regions has changed slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: The SMM social inventory is 587,000 tons, with a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week. The ordinary inventory is 135,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons, and the delivery inventory is 452,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The price of polysilicon N - type is stable. The polysilicon production in June is expected to be 98,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. In the organic silicon field, the DMC inventory has decreased by nearly 30% in May, and the DMC production in June is expected to be 205,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons [1]. - **Summary**: In June, the industrial silicon may still have a slight inventory pressure. The price may rebound in the short term due to technical factors, but the downward trend remains. Pay attention to the MA20 resistance level [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The futures price's oscillation center has moved down, and the main contract is near the key level of 34,000 yuan/ton. The spot price is stable, with the large - factory dense re - feed material priced at 36,000 - 37,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Sichuan has entered the wet season, and leading enterprises plan to replace production capacity. The polysilicon production in June is expected to be 98,800 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. The factory inventory is 269,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons week - on - week [1]. - **Demand**: After the 531 policy node, the distributed orders have decreased, and the centralized projects are on hold. The component enterprises have raised the price, but the transactions are insufficient. The silicon wafer price is stable, and the production in June is expected to decrease by about 2GW [1]. - **Summary**: The component demand has decreased, while the polysilicon production is increasing. The inventory pressure is slightly rising, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline [1].