Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal sector continues to show strong performance, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) reaching a new high and significant capital inflow expected in the future [1] - The macroeconomic environment is projected to influence commodity markets through three main themes by 2026: green inflation, anti-involution, and a rate-cutting trend, which are expected to drive price increases in commodities like copper and aluminum [1] - The sustainability of the super cycle in non-ferrous metals is contingent on three factors: the recovery of US dollar credit, the progress of strategic reserves, and the effectiveness of anti-involution policies, suggesting that the super cycle is likely to continue until 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [2] - As of January 5, the latest scale of the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) is 879 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index among three similar products in the market [2]

Group 1 - Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife Flores appeared in a U.S. court, denying all charges and claiming they were kidnapped [19][21] - The Venezuelan government issued a decree to search for individuals supporting U.S. military actions, implementing emergency defense measures [6][22] - The decree was signed before Maduro's forceful control by the U.S. [23] Group 2 - U.S. President Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Indian products if India does not limit its purchase of Russian oil, with tariffs potentially rising to 50% [8][25] - The Federal Reserve's Kashkari indicated limited room for further interest rate cuts, emphasizing the need for more data on inflation and labor market conditions [9][26] Group 3 - The geopolitical turmoil from the U.S. controlling Maduro has led to a surge in gold and silver futures prices, with gold rising over 3% and silver over 7% [10][26] - The LME saw significant increases in copper (4.19%), aluminum (2.32%), nickel (1.09%), and zinc (2.17%) prices [10][27] Group 4 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals experienced a strong rally, driven by concerns over resource supply stability due to the Venezuelan crisis [12][28] - The uncertainty in energy supply has heightened concerns in the aluminum industry, particularly for electrolytic aluminum, which is heavily reliant on electricity [29] Group 5 - The supply constraints for electrolytic aluminum are due to high domestic capacity utilization (96.5%) and limited overseas power resources [13][29] - The copper-aluminum price ratio has increased, leading to expectations of aluminum price increases as copper prices rise [30] Group 6 - Despite the strong performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, there are concerns about demand pressures due to high aluminum prices and seasonal consumption declines [15][31] - The future demand for aluminum may be positively influenced by developments in AI hardware, photovoltaics, and energy storage industries [30][31]

【铜】本周报于99357点，较上周上涨1431.3点，涨幅1.46%。 【铝】本周报于22447.44点，较上周上涨450点，涨幅2.05%。 【铅】本周报于17155点，较上周下跌50点，跌幅0.29%。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：上海有色金属交易中心） SMEI指数本周报于3841.83点，较上周上涨48.83点，涨幅1.29%。 各品种绝对价格指数情况如下： 【锡】本周报于326875点，较上周下跌7375点，跌幅2.21%。 【镍】本周报于135576点，较上周上涨6886点，涨幅5.35%。 【锌】本周报于23364.6点，较上周上涨160点，涨幅0.69%。 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a decline in volatility, which may create conditions for a breakthrough of previous highs. However, there may be increased volatility in early January due to profit-taking by investors and potential redemption pressure in the ETF market [1] - The overall profit growth of the market is gradually recovering but lacks elasticity, leading to a focus on thematic assets and investment opportunities under grand narratives [1] - It is suggested to start gradually positioning in various thematic investment opportunities in mid to late January [1] Group 2 - The report recommends a selection of "golden stocks" for January 2026, including companies such as Midea Group, Senqilin, and China Ping An, each with specific investment logic and growth potential [15] - Midea Group is expected to benefit from strong B-end revenue growth and a high dividend payout ratio, while Senqilin is positioned to gain from overseas production capacity and pricing power due to EU tariffs [15] - Sunshine Power is anticipated to see high growth in its energy storage business, driven by demand in North America and new product launches [15] Group 3 - Key financial data for the recommended stocks indicates expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for Midea Group from 5.07 yuan in 2024 to 6.37 yuan in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 16 to 12 [16] - Senqilin's EPS is projected to increase from 2.11 yuan in 2024 to 1.83 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio expected to drop from 10 to 12 [16] - China Ping An is forecasted to have an EPS growth from 6.95 yuan in 2024 to 9.51 yuan in 2026, with a PE ratio decreasing from 10 to 7 [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, LME copper rose 3.99% to $12,673.5 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract rose 1.85% to 99,220 yuan per ton. The import of domestic refined copper spot remained at a loss. The Fed's meeting minutes indicated a possible further interest - rate cut. In China, recent policies boosted market confidence. LME copper inventory decreased, Comex increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose. Downstream procurement became cautious, and copper prices were repaired due to domestic stimulus policies, but investors were reminded to operate cautiously during the New Year holiday [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed a slightly stronger trend. The SMM alumina price declined, and the aluminum ingot spot discount widened. Alumina factories had high ore reserves, and the cost of alumina continued to decline. The pressure for aluminum ingot inventory accumulation increased, and short - term macro - micro differences restricted the upward movement of near - month contracts [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 6.47% to $16,780 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 3.64% to 134,400 yuan per ton. The planned nickel ore output in Indonesia in 2026 is expected to decrease significantly. The government plans to revise the mineral benchmark price calculation formula. The fundamentals showed that nickel ore prices were stable, nickel - iron prices rose, and stainless - steel inventory decreased. The theoretical profit of nickel sulfate turned negative. Supported by news, nickel prices strengthened, but the actual implementation remained uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight price increases, import losses, macro - policy impacts, inventory changes, and downstream procurement trends. In the domestic market, policies boosted confidence, and copper prices were repaired, but holiday risks existed [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight price increases, price and inventory changes in the spot market, alumina cost reduction, and inventory accumulation pressure [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price increases, news of production reduction and policy changes in Indonesia, stable domestic nickel ore prices, and changes in the stainless - steel and nickel - sulfate markets. News boosted nickel prices, but the actual situation was uncertain [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Provided price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in spot prices, scrap copper prices, and inventory levels [3]. - **Lead**: Presented price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in lead prices, lead - concentrate prices, and inventory [3]. - **Aluminum**: Showed price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in aluminum prices, aluminum - alloy prices, and inventory [4]. - **Nickel**: Offered price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in nickel prices, nickel - alloy prices, and inventory [4]. - **Zinc**: Gave price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in zinc prices, zinc - alloy prices, and inventory [6]. - **Tin**: Presented price, inventory, and other data on December 30 and 29, 2025, including changes in tin prices, tin - concentrate prices, and inventory [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Included charts of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][11][12]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Contained charts of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][18][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Had charts of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Provided charts of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Included charts of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Contained charts of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in the non - ferrous metals research field, and are responsible for different research directions [47][48].

Market Overview - The market showed a slight upward trend followed by a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index opening at 3968 points and closing down 2 points at 3962 points, while the ChiNext Index opened at 3247 points and closed down 35 points at 3207 points [1] - A total of 2735 stocks rose and 1731 stocks fell, indicating a bearish sentiment as the number of declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones [1] Stock Performance - Among the rising stocks, 56 had gains exceeding 9%, and 319 had gains over 3%. Conversely, 3049 stocks declined, with 9 falling more than 9% and 262 falling over 3% [1] - The market was primarily supported by the materials and financial sectors, but the overall strength was limited as most stocks lacked momentum [1] Technical Analysis - The market is currently facing resistance in the 3977-3983 range, with a need for caution as the market has shown signs of testing lower support levels around 3930-3950 [1] - Investors are advised to be patient and wait for opportunities, particularly in stocks that have not shown significant movement [1] Year-End Reflection - As the year comes to a close, the market is approaching the 4000-point mark, prompting discussions on whether to hold stocks or cash during the holiday season [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider their individual stock positions and market conditions before making decisions, emphasizing that there is no one-size-fits-all answer [1] Future Outlook - The market may continue to experience fluctuations in the coming year, influenced by international developments, but maintaining a balanced approach to investing is crucial [1] - The focus should be on individual stock analysis rather than solely on index performance, promoting a strategy of patience and careful decision-making [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term sentiment of precious metals has ebbed, but the copper price still has strong support due to tight supply in the copper industry and potential downstream consumption recovery. The aluminum price has a strong support as well, with low inventory and possible consumption increase after price decline. Lead shows a supply - demand weak pattern, and low inventory and supply contraction in the recycling end drive the price up. Zinc's fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is decreasing. Tin's supply has limited upward momentum, and demand is supported by emerging fields. Nickel's short - term price bottom may have emerged. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by capital games, and there is an expectation of supply - demand repair. Alumina's supply - side reform needs actual production cuts. Stainless steel may rise if the nickel ore supply quota tightens. Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strongly volatile [2][5][8][11][13][15][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The London copper rose 0.45% to $12,187 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 96,060 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 2,450 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 21,000 tons [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of copper mines is tight, and the copper price has strong support. If the price continues to adjust, downstream consumption may improve. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 95,500 - 99,000 yuan per ton, and for the London copper 3M is $12,000 - 12,500 per ton [2]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The London aluminum fell 0.2% to $2,950 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,320 yuan per ton. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory and possible consumption recovery support the price. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,600 yuan per ton, and for the London aluminum 3M is $2,920 - 2,980 per ton [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.40% to 17,477 yuan per ton, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The primary lead supply is loose, the secondary lead supply is contracting, and the lead market is in a supply - demand weak pattern. Low inventory and supply contraction in the recycling end drive the price up, but the exit of long - positions may impact the price [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.34% to 23,271 yuan per ton, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc ore inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals are weak. The exit of long - positions may impact the price [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 29, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract fell 1.17% to 334,590 yuan per ton. The supply has limited upward momentum, and demand is supported by emerging fields [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan per ton, and for the overseas London tin is $39,000 - 43,000 per ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.81% to 126,080 yuan per ton. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel - iron price rose [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term price bottom of nickel may have emerged. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 110,000 - 135,000 yuan per ton, and for the London nickel 3M is $13,000 - 16,000 per ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 2.03%, and the LC2605 contract fell 8.96% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of lithium carbonate is affected by capital games, and there is an expectation of supply - demand repair. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 112,100 - 122,500 yuan per ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 29, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.04% to 2,720 yuan per ton. The inventory of futures decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract fell 0.35% to 12,910 yuan per ton. The social inventory decreased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Policy expectations drive up raw material prices and inventory reduction. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.94% to 21,590 yuan per ton, and the inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strongly volatile due to cost support and supply disturbances [28].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market with significant capital inflow, indicating strong investor confidence in future performance [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 26, the non-ferrous metal sector saw a net capital inflow of 11.4 billion yuan, the highest across all industries [1]. - The Huabao non-ferrous ETF (159876) reached a peak increase of 3.98%, currently up 3.14%, marking a new high since its listing [1]. - The Huabao ETF attracted a total of 56.11 million yuan over the past two days, reflecting positive sentiment towards the non-ferrous metal sector [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Key stocks such as Yongxing Materials and Jiangxi Copper hit the daily limit, while Guocheng Mining rose over 9% [3]. - Major companies like China Aluminum and Luoyang Molybdenum saw increases of over 6%, reaching historical highs [3]. Group 3: Commodity Prices - On December 26, gold, silver, and copper prices reached new highs, with COMEX gold at $4,561.6 per ounce, silver at $75.495 per ounce, and copper at $5.7565 per pound [5]. - Year-to-date performance shows COMEX gold up 71.84%, silver up 156.74%, and copper up over 42% [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict a strong performance for the metal sector in 2025, driven by macroeconomic policies and structural supply-demand changes [5]. - The upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve leadership and increased capital expenditure in AI technology are expected to influence monetary policy and the non-ferrous metal bull market [5][6]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Huabao non-ferrous ETF and its associated funds is recommended to capture the overall sector performance while mitigating risks [6].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The sentiment is still supported under the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The copper ore supply remains in a tight pattern, and there is a risk of structural shortage in refined copper supply due to the expected US copper tariff. However, the benchmark of the long - term copper concentrate processing fee is slightly higher than expected, and the weak consumption at the end of the year increases the upward resistance of copper prices in the short term. It is recommended to view copper prices as a high - level oscillation. The operating range of the main Shanghai copper contract today is expected to be 94,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton [2][3]. - The overall aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level, and there are supply disturbances overseas, so aluminum prices are strongly supported. But the weak downstream consumption exerts pressure, and it is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate in the short term. The operating range of the main Shanghai aluminum contract today is expected to be 22,000 - 22,350 yuan/ton [5][6]. - The apparent inventory of lead ore rises, and the processing fee of lead concentrate remains flat. The operating rate of primary lead smelters increases. The inventory of waste batteries decreases marginally, and the operating rate of secondary lead decreases marginally. The supply of lead ingots in China tightens marginally, and the apparent inventory of lead ingots remains at a relatively low level. The current lead price is at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and it is expected to run strongly in a wide range in the short term [8][9]. - The apparent inventory of zinc concentrate rises, and the TC of zinc concentrate stops falling and stabilizes. With the increase of the Shanghai - London ratio, it is expected that the shortage of zinc ore in China will be marginally alleviated. The LME zinc ingot inventory accumulates, and the LME zinc monthly spread returns to the Contango structure. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China continues to decline, and the spot basis rises, but the monthly spread remains low. Be vigilant about the price impact on other non - ferrous metals after the departure of precious metal funds [10][11]. - Although the current tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the bargaining power is limited under the low downstream inventory. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with the change of market risk preference. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [12][13]. - The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but due to the proposed tax on cobalt elements by the Indonesian government, the bearish sentiment in the market has exhausted, and the short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of Shanghai nickel prices is expected to be 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M contract is 13,000 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [15][16]. - The potential supply pressure in the short - term of lithium carbonate is eliminated, and the bullish sentiment in the market is strong. The long - position trend of the futures market has not ended. The trading of lithium carbonate is dominated by capital games. It is recommended to wait and see or buy options with a light position. Pay attention to the changes in fundamentals and seat positions. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 120,600 - 128,000 yuan/ton [19][20]. - After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea gradually recovers, and the AXIS mine resumes production. The ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. But the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production reduction expectation increases. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2400 - 2700 yuan/ton [22][23]. - The plan of the Indonesian government to reduce the nickel ore production target in 2026 has pushed up the prices of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel. But the actual spot market transaction is still relatively light, and there is a lack of driving factors for a continuous strong rebound in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay close attention to the implementation of policies [25][26]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and there are continuous supply disturbances. The price has strong support at the bottom, but the demand is relatively volatile and the delivery pressure forms an upper - limit suppression. The price of cast aluminum alloy may maintain a range - bound fluctuation in the short term [28][29]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Copper - **Market Information**: The offshore RMB continued to strengthen. The rise of precious metals and concerns about supply reduction drove up copper prices. LME copper closed up 0.65% at 12,133 US dollars/ton, and the main Shanghai copper contract closed at 95,020 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 1,550 to 157,025 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants declined. In China, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 to 52,000 tons, and the spot discount in Shanghai and Guangdong expanded. The import loss of Shanghai copper spot was 1,700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [2]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Affected by the warm atmosphere of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, aluminum prices rose. LME aluminum closed up 0.53% at 2,956 US dollars/ton, and the main Shanghai aluminum contract closed at 22,145 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted Shanghai aluminum contract increased by 0.9 to 662,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts remained stable at 76,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased slightly, the aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods was lowered. The spot discount of electrolytic aluminum in East China was 170 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 521,000 tons, and the ratio of cancelled warrants declined [5]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 1.36% at 17,221 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 91,400 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME lead 3S rose 20 to 1,997.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 178,000 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,025 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,975 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 12,400 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 90 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts was 15 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 253,100 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 99,800 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly by 400 tons to 19,100 tons [8]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.62% at 23,243 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 201,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, LME zinc 3S rose 39 to 3,125.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 227,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 23,260 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 90 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was at par, and the Guangdong basis was - 5 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 42,400 tons, and the domestic Shanghai - area basis was 90 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 99,000 tons, and the cancelled warrants were 9,800 tons. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased by 700 tons to 119,300 tons [10]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 24, 2025, the closing price of the main Shanghai tin contract was 341,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rates of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi showed a high - level stability but lacked upward momentum. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan was 86.11%, basically the same as last week, and remained stable throughout the fourth quarter. The tin ore processing fee in this area was still at a historical low, restricting the production enthusiasm of smelting enterprises. In Jiangxi, smelting enterprises continued to face a significant shortage of recycled raw materials. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises remained stable. The production of tin solder of sample enterprises in November increased by 0.95% month - on - month, and the operating rate rose slightly by 0.69% compared with October, mainly supported by orders from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers. But the high tin price significantly suppressed the downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot trading atmosphere was dull this week [12]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, nickel prices first rose and then fell. The main Shanghai nickel contract closed at 128,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.79% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The price of nickel ore remained stable, and the price of nickel iron rose slightly [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 115,771 yuan, an increase of 3.55% from the previous working day. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 4,100 yuan (+3.66%), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.95%. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 124,720 yuan, an increase of 3.62% from the previous day's closing price, and the average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 2000 yuan [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 24, 2025, as of 3 pm, the alumina index rose 1.36% to 2618 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position decreased by 32,800 lots to 617,900 lots. The spot price in Shandong decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 2,635 yuan/ton, with a premium of 81 yuan/ton over the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained unchanged at 309 US dollars/ton, and the import loss was reported at - 68 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were 161,700 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous day. The CIF price of Guinea decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 66 US dollars/ton, and the CIF price of Australia remained unchanged at 67 US dollars/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,075 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.32% (+170). The unilateral position increased by 12,611 lots to 199,500 lots. In the spot market, the prices of cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi increased. The price of raw materials such as high - nickel iron and 304 scrap steel increased, and the high - carbon ferrochrome price remained unchanged. The futures inventory decreased by 12,106 tons to 48,495 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1.0421 million tons, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated strongly. The main AD2602 contract closed up 1.01% at 21,480 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract increased to 28,300 lots, and the trading volume was 12,200 lots. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 70,200 tons. The spread between the AL2602 and AD2602 contracts narrowed. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 increased, and the price of imported ADC12 increased by 200 yuan/ton. The domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 100 tons to 47,300 tons [28].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Zinc and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, advising to wait and see) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market) [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - environment. Different metals show different trends and investment suggestions. [2][3][4][7][9][10] Summary by Metal Copper - On Tuesday, SHFE copper showed a position - reducing and oscillating trend. Shanghai copper discount widened to 215 yuan, and Guangdong discount was 125 yuan. Yangshan copper premium rose to $55. At high copper prices, the spread between refined and scrap copper did not widen further. The market is concerned about trading sentiment during the New Year period, especially the tight concentrate supply in the first quarter. Hold a small number of long positions above 92,500 yuan. [2] Aluminum, Alumina and Aluminum Alloy - Today, SHFE aluminum oscillated. Spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China remained at - 170 yuan, - 330 yuan, and - 245 yuan respectively. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 22,000 tons compared to last Thursday, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 300 tons. The fundamental contradiction in the aluminum market is still limited. The short - term market is macro - driven, and the loose trading continues. SHFE aluminum mainly follows the upward trend. Hold long positions with the 40 - day moving average as support and pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 21,300 yuan. The inventory of the cast aluminum industry and exchange warehouse receipts fluctuated narrowly. Tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. Driven by the macro - environment, cast aluminum alloy has limited ability to follow the upward trend at high levels. The alumina production capacity is at a historical high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change. The industry inventory continues to rise. The average full cost in Shanxi and Henan is 2,850 - 2,900 yuan, and the spot index has fallen to around 2,710 yuan. There is still a profit in cash - cost accounting. A mining enterprise in Guinea will lower the long - term contract price by $5 in the first quarter, and the alumina cost has room to decline. Alumina will be weak before large - scale production cuts, and the spot price is more likely to fall when the spread is large. [3] Zinc - Intraday, long - position traders continued to cover their positions. The daily position of SHFE zinc weighted increased by 3,609 lots to 198,800 lots. The annual - line position has strong support, and the overall trend is still in a rebound. The LME zinc inventory is at the level of 99,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot discount is $33.43 per ton. The squeeze - out atmosphere of foreign capital has subsided, and the zinc export window has closed. In late December in China, more zinc smelters carried out maintenance. Downstream consumption declined in the short term due to environmental protection control in the north, but overall resilience still exists. Given the low consumption base in 2025, the consumption outlook in 2026 is not overly pessimistic. Coupled with the expected resonance of loose monetary policies between China and the US in the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan", SHFE zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan per ton. [4] Lead - The overseas surplus pressure is transmitted to the domestic market. Domestic primary lead smelters that had previously carried out maintenance are gradually resuming production. The consumption side has mixed news, and the upward momentum of lead is weak. The TC of lead concentrate remains stable at a low level, the price of waste batteries has stopped falling, and the cost support for recycled lead is still strong. The spread between refined and scrap lead is 50 yuan per ton. The domestic lead inventory is low, and the impact of incremental pressure still needs to be tracked. SHFE lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,700 - 17,300 yuan per ton. [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rose sharply, and the market trading was active. The market performance was triggered by the stop - loss orders of industrial short - position traders, and the irrational trend is expected to have limited sustainability. The news from the Indonesian Nickel Mining Association last week triggered a surge in the nickel market. The nickel ore quota in 2026 will be reduced to 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 380 million - ton quota in 2025, and the mineral benchmark price formula will be revised at the beginning of 2026. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 6,700 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel is 175 yuan. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel is resistant to decline, and the price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 888 yuan per nickel point. The support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening, but the market is still dominated by policy sentiment in the short term. The pure nickel inventory increased by 260 tons to 59,000 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 927,000 tons. Wait for the end of market fluctuations and mainly wait and see in the short term. [7] Tin - SHFE tin oscillated and closed up slightly with a small reduction in positions. In November in China, the import volume of tin concentrate in metal tons continued to recover, with increasing volumes from the DRC and Myanmar. High tin prices continue to suppress consumption. In terms of inventory, the inventories in both domestic and foreign markets are high. The market shows strong resonance between volume and price. Emphasize the high - level risks. [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rose again, and the market trading was active. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 99,000 yuan, and the spread between industrial - grade and battery - grade is 2,650 yuan. The sharp increase in lithium carbonate prices has led to a continuous rise in lithium ore prices. However, due to the market's lack of confidence in maintaining high prices of lithium carbonate, the trading enthusiasm at the current high level is limited. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 110,400 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 41,500 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 1,300 tons to 51,000 tons. The mid - stream sector is enthusiastic, and the spot market shows some support. The latest quotation of Australian ore is $1,385, and the ore - end quotation remains strong. The futures price of lithium carbonate is strongly oscillating, and the fundamentals are generally strong. Short - position traders are relatively under pressure. [9] Industrial Silicon - The futures price of industrial silicon strengthened again, closing above 8,700 yuan per ton. There are repeated rumors about the shutdown of northern production areas before the end of the month. In the spot market, the weekly production of industrial silicon in Xinjiang decreased slightly, and the operating rates in other production areas in the southwest and northwest remained stable. On the demand side, due to the implementation of joint emission reduction in December, the operating rate of silicone decreased significantly compared to November, and the weekly output has shown a slight recovery. After large - scale production cuts in November, the operating rate of polysilicon decreased limitedly in December. The weekly social inventory of industrial silicon decreased significantly, but the downstream raw material inventory increased, and the factory inventory in Xinjiang has the pressure of inventory accumulation. In summary, the demand for industrial silicon is under pressure, and the futures price is strongly oscillating due to the expectation of end - of - month production cuts. [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon continued to decline slightly. Due to the adjustment of trading rules and the strong performance of other metals, the market sentiment has cooled down. After the establishment of the purchase - reserve platform, the market is still waiting for further plans. In the spot market, the price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material decreased slightly today, with an average price of 52,350 yuan per ton. There is no news of transactions for the previous high - price quotations of manufacturers. Driven by the expected increase in the costs of silver and silicon raw materials, the quotation of downstream battery cells has increased to 0.34 yuan per watt, but there has been no actual transaction. The factory inventory of polysilicon remains at a high level of 293,000 tons. In summary, there is still an expectation of capacity adjustment for polysilicon, but the high inventory in the short term and the downstream production - cut situation have hindered the increase in the spot price of polysilicon. The trading sentiment in the futures market has cooled down. The increase in the new delivery factory warehouses and the maximum amount of warehouse receipts indicates that if the futures price fails to effectively break through 60,000 yuan per ton in the short term, it will maintain an oscillating trend. [10]