Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the release of reform dividends and the ongoing upgrade of product structure, leading to potential earnings elasticity [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2026, estimating net profits of 887.12 million and 1,027.34 million respectively, with growth rates of 12.71% and 15.81% [4] Performance Summary - For 2024, the company's revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses are projected to be 5.36 billion, 787.10 million, and 887.12 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.91%, 18.19%, and 12.71% [5] - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenues of 1.27 billion, net profit of 231 million, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 220 million, showing year-on-year declines of 10.03%, 6.79%, and 3.79% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenues of 1.17 billion, net profit of 152 million, and net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 142 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.36%, 11.91%, and 13.22% [1] Product Structure and Market Performance - The revenue from products priced above 100 yuan decreased by 17.66% in Q4 2024, while products priced below 100 yuan increased by 3.08% [2] - The company’s revenue from different regions in Q4 2024 showed a decline in Hebei and other provinces, while the Hunan market experienced a growth of 9.53% [3] Financial Metrics - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 improved by 5.86 and 1.00 percentage points to 68.58% and 13.05% respectively, attributed to product structure upgrades [4] - The company’s sales expense ratio increased by 4.59 percentage points to 27.51% in Q1 2025 [4] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 10.50 billion by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 45.67% [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [7][5][6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 69.4% in Q1 2025, although it decreased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is maintaining active expense investments during the peak season to promote sales, with a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year [3] - A stock incentive plan was announced, granting up to 2.0366 million shares to 168 individuals, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4] - Revenue and profit are expected to gradually improve as the company enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2] - The company reported a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant improvement in operating cash flow, which increased by 106.8% year-on-year to 224 million yuan [3] Market and Channel Analysis - The company has optimized its channel structure, with a total of 2,621 distributors as of the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 42 from the end of 2024 [2] - E-commerce channel revenue increased by 36.7% year-on-year to 205 million yuan, reflecting a trend towards online sales in the liquor market [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenue and performance as it enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] - The stock incentive plan aims to motivate employees with performance targets that require significant revenue and profit growth over the next three years [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [7][5][19]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 69.4% in Q1 2025, although it decreased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company is maintaining active expenditure during the peak season to promote sales, with a sales expense ratio increasing by 3.03 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - A stock incentive plan was announced, granting up to 2.0366 million shares to 168 individuals, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4]. - The company expects a turning point in revenue and performance as it enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, and net profits of 422 million yuan, an increase of 21.9% year-on-year [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market and Channel Analysis - The company’s provincial revenue was 494 million yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year, while out-of-province revenue was 949 million yuan, down 33.2% year-on-year [2]. - The e-commerce channel saw revenue of 205 million yuan, an increase of 36.7% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in online sales [2]. Future Outlook - The company maintains its previous profit forecast, expecting revenues of 5.08 billion yuan in 2025, 5.375 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.756 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 422 million yuan, 451 million yuan, and 508 million yuan [5][6]. - The stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 45.0 for 2025 and 42.1 for 2026, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu, with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 23.578 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.41%. Operating profit was 7.751 billion yuan, up 23.36%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.514 billion yuan, growing by 20.15% [1][2]. - The company plans to launch two new products in 2025 to strengthen its market position in the mid-range price segment, indicating a focus on broadening its consumer base [1][2]. - The chairman emphasized the importance of strategic consistency and long-termism in the company's growth strategy, particularly in the context of recovering banquet demand [2]. Financial Data Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 23.58 billion yuan, 26.04 billion yuan, and 28.94 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 5.51 billion yuan, 6.23 billion yuan, and 7.10 billion yuan, respectively [2]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 10.43 yuan in 2024 to 13.43 yuan in 2026 [3][10]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 16.83 in 2024 to 13.08 in 2026, indicating potential value appreciation [3][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its management and marketing capabilities to sustain growth amid competitive pressures in the industry [2]. - The introduction of new products at accessible price points is part of a strategy to capture a larger market share and cater to diverse consumer preferences [1][2].

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 贵州茅台（600519） 证券研究报告 全年业绩符合预期，茅台酒量增略超预期 【业绩总结】24 年公司营业收入/归母净利润分别 1708.99/862.28 亿元（同 比+15.71%/+15.38%）；24Q4 公司营业收入/归母净利润分别 501.23/254.01 亿元（同比+12.83%/+16.21%）。 【分红率】年度累计分红比例 75%。 【2025 目标】实现营业总收入较上年度增长 9%左右。 盈利预测：25 年公司或通过控货飞天&珍品，同时增加 1000ml 公斤茅&生 肖酒等投放实现批价稳定/业绩增长，系列酒继续成为公司重要增长引擎。 我们预计 25-27 年公司营业收入同比+9%/+8%/+8%至 1903/2059/2224 亿 元，归母净利润同比+9%/+8%/+8%至 943/1022/1108 亿元，对应 PE 分别为 21X/19X/18X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济影响，消费疲软，行业政策变动，飞天茅台批价波动。 产品：茅台酒销量略超预期，系列酒为重要驱动力。 一、24 年：酒类收入 1706.12 亿（同比+15.89%），销量/吨价 ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 业绩评论 2025 年 4 月 10 日 600519.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 1,541.04 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 贵州茅台 2024 年年报业绩点评：2024 年公 司改革成效显著，营收及归母净利均实现 较快增长。2025 年公司夯实基础，制定 9% 的营收增长目标。 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 3.6 1.3 6.7 (7.3) 相对上证综指 5.9 6.8 7.5 (11.8) 发行股数 (百万) 1,256.20 流通股 (百万) 1,256.20 总市值 (人民币 百万) 1,935,851.06 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 4,963.75 主要股东 中国贵州茅台酒厂(集团)有限责任公 54.07 (22%) (14%) (7%) 0% 8% 15% Apr-24 May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 贵州茅台 上证综指 司（%） 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][17] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 174.14 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, and a net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, up 15.4%, which aligns with market expectations [6] - For 2025, the revenue growth target is set at 9%, which is considered reasonable given the current state of the liquor consumption recovery [6] - The company aims to maintain stable pricing for its flagship products while optimizing product and channel structures to ensure continued growth [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor reached 145.93 billion yuan and 24.68 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 15.3% and 19.7% [7] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 92.1%, remaining stable compared to the previous year, while the net profit margin was 51.3% [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 76.10 yuan, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.6 [11][14] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for total revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 190.13 billion yuan, 209.33 billion yuan, and 226.08 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 10.1%, and 8.0% [11] - The net profit for the same period is expected to be 95.60 billion yuan, 105.87 billion yuan, and 114.41 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.9%, 10.7%, and 8.1% [11] Channel Structure Optimization - In 2024, the revenue from direct sales and wholesale channels was 74.84 billion yuan and 95.77 billion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 11.3% and 19.7% respectively [8] - The company is actively expanding its market presence through various channels beyond traditional distributors, including restaurants, supermarkets, and e-commerce [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6][17] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth target of 9% for 2025, with a positive outlook for the upcoming years despite a slight adjustment in profit forecasts due to a slow recovery in liquor consumption [6][7] - The company reported a total revenue of 174.1 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.7%, and a net profit of 86.2 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [6][9] - The company aims to maintain stable pricing for its flagship products while optimizing its product and channel structures to ensure continued growth [6][8] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 92.1%, with a net profit margin of 51.3%, indicating stable profitability [9][11] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 95.6 billion yuan, 105.9 billion yuan, and 114.4 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.9%, 10.7%, and 8.1% [6][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 76.10 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.6, 18.6, and 17.2 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [6][11][14] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company generated revenue of 145.9 billion yuan from its flagship liquor and 24.7 billion yuan from its series liquor, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.3% and 19.7%, respectively [7][8] - The wholesale channel outperformed the direct sales channel, with revenues of 95.8 billion yuan and 74.8 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 19.7% and 11.3% [8][9] Market Strategy - The company is actively optimizing its channel structure to address supply-demand mismatches, expanding beyond traditional distributors to include restaurants, supermarkets, and e-commerce platforms [8][9] - The company is focusing on maintaining a stable price for its flagship products while increasing market share through enhanced product offerings and strategic channel management [6][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 15% in 2024, with a target revenue growth of 9% for 2025 [1][5]. - The revenue for 2024 is projected to be 174.14 billion yuan, with a net profit of 86.23 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 15.66% and 15.38%, respectively [1][5]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 75% for 2024, consistent with its dividend return plan [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company expects revenue from Moutai liquor to reach 145.93 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.28%, and a sales volume of 46,000 tons, up 10.22% [2]. - The series liquor segment is anticipated to grow faster than Moutai liquor, with a revenue of 24.68 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 19.65% [2]. - The gross profit margin for Moutai liquor is projected to decline slightly due to increased labor costs, while the wholesale channel is expected to grow significantly [2][3]. Financial Forecasts - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with expected revenues of 190.75 billion yuan and 207.07 billion yuan, respectively, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 9.5% and 8.6% [5][11]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 94.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [5][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 75.04 yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 9.3% [5][11]. Market Strategy - The company aims to respect market dynamics in its product launch strategy, focusing on stabilizing prices and adjusting distribution channels for its products [4]. - The sales model for Moutai 1935 is undergoing reform, with expected growth concentrated in kilogram packaging and cultural IP products [4]. - Increased marketing expenses are planned to expand diversified channels and promote genuine consumer engagement [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in various indicators for 2024, with digital transformation yielding initial results. Key products, membership assets, and strategic terminal quality have all improved. The company aims to focus on market cultivation and enhance profitability through digital empowerment [2][3] - For 2025, the company will emphasize sales and implement six major shifts in marketing strategy, focusing on consumer-centric approaches and digitalization to drive growth [4][5] - The management's strengths and marketing execution capabilities are highlighted as core advantages in a competitive industry landscape, with a strategic focus on long-term digital transformation [5][6] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 31.805 billion, 33.491 billion, and 36.898 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 5.2%, 5.3%, and 10.2% respectively. Net profit is projected at 13.883 billion, 14.817 billion, and 16.619 billion yuan, with growth rates of 4.8%, 6.7%, and 12.2% [7][10] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are forecasted to be 9.43, 10.07, and 11.29 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13.4, 12.6, and 11.2 [2][10] - The company is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 60%, leading to a projected dividend yield of 4.5% in 2024, providing strong valuation support [7]