Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6][22] Core Viewpoints - Cobalt prices have surged to 261,000 CNY/ton, marking a 64.15% increase since February 24, 2025, indicating a potential recovery in the cobalt supply-demand structure [3][10] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), as the largest cobalt supplier, has suspended cobalt exports for four months to address oversupply issues, which may lead to short-term price fluctuations [2][4] - The DRC's GDP is projected to exceed 70 billion USD in 2024, with mining contributing 30%-40% of this GDP, suggesting that the government will likely resume exports after the suspension period to maintain economic stability [3][4] Supply and Demand Summary - The DRC holds approximately 6 million tons of cobalt reserves, accounting for 54.44% of global reserves, and produced 220,000 tons in 2024, representing 75.86% of global production [4][11] - The suspension of exports is expected to reduce cobalt supply by 73,000 tons in 2025, potentially exacerbating supply shortages [4] - Cobalt demand is primarily driven by the battery sector, which accounted for 68.8% of global consumption in 2020, with projections for demand from electric vehicle batteries reaching 88,500 tons, 106,900 tons, and 126,200 tons from 2024 to 2026 [4][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that cobalt prices may stabilize and recover, with a potential improvement in the supply-demand structure. Investors are advised to focus on companies that may benefit from rising cobalt prices, such as Huayou Cobalt, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Hanrui Cobalt [5][21]

十天内，两则消息彻底搅动全球钴矿江湖。 首先据新华财经消息，刚果（金）有关部门2月24日宣布，该国决定暂停钴出口四个月，以应对 全球钴市场供应过剩的局面；据了解，该禁止出口措施适用于所有生产商，但没有限制钴的生 产，而且不影响铜的出口。该决定将于3个月后再行审查。同时，监管当局也在准备其他措施以 平衡钴市场。 3月5日，据 "SMM新能源" 报道，国产动力电池厂商赣锋锂电发布客户告知函称：近期，全球最 大的钻矿产地刚果金爆发内战，导致全球钻矿供应紧张，钻价大幅上涨。受此影响，所有正极材 料供应商已停止报价，短期内无法下单采购正极材料，锂电池行业正面临成本上升和供应链中断 的挑战。 受两则消息影响，自信息发布至今 （3月7日收盘） ，9个交易日，中国资本市场钴矿三巨头腾远 钴业 (301219.SZ) 、华友钴业 (603799.SH) 、寒锐钴业 (300618.SZ) 股价分别上涨了27.50%、 18.24%、16.56%，而同期上证指数下跌了0.01%。 目前关于第2则消息的影响与变化我们目前还难以预测，本文旨在整理与分析 "刚果（金）禁运令 将对全球钴矿价格，乃至全球钴供应链产生怎样的影响？以及未来钴 ...

行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 [Ta刚bl果e_（R金e）p暂Ti停tle出]口四个月 钴价短期或获支撑走强 [Table_Title] ——有色金属行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 2 月 26 日 孟业雄 [内Ta容ble摘_S要ummary] [有Ta色b金le_属P（icQ中u信ot）e]与上证综指走势图 告 行 业 重 大 事 件 点 中性 [相Ta关bl报e_告Report] 报 告 [分Ta析b师le_：Author] 联系电话：010-88300920 [Table_Author] 执业证书编号：S1380523040001 邮箱：mengyexiong@gkzq.com.cn 2月24日，刚果（金）相关部门宣布了一项重大决策：为应对全 球钴市场出现的供应过剩问题，该国将钴出口暂停四个月。当日， 刚果（金）战略矿产市场监管控制局发表声明，透露刚果总理与 矿业部长已共同签署法令，授权监管机构在必要时采取临时禁止 出口等措施，确保市场稳定不受干扰。此措施自2月22日起正式 施行。声明还指出，政府计划在措施实施三个月后进行全面评估， 并依据评估结果考虑是否调整或解除当前的出 ...