中国近期在光伏、锂电、电动车等终端制造业推进的"反内卷"行动，已超越单纯产业调控范畴，深刻体 现了国家经济发展战略导向。这一导向在政策层面得到清晰延续：今年4月召开的中共中央政治局会议 提出"规范竞争秩序"，7月召开的中共中央政治局会议进一步深化导向，明确提出"推动市场竞争秩序持 续优化"，同时聚焦"增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好势头"，构建了从产 业端到资本市场的完整政策体系。从逻辑内核看，理解资本市场的吸引力与包容性，需以"反内卷"为基 石，进而巩固资本市场回稳态势，实现资本与企业的良性循环。 "反内卷"优化市场生态 "反内卷"通过系统性优化市场生态，为资本市场夯实基本面支撑，核心体现为四方面协同发力。 一是破除市场分割，需纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，打破地方保护主义，促进要素跨区域自由流动。 这一举措能从空间维度减少同质化竞争，让要素在更广域市场实现最优配置，避免局部资源低效堆积， 为企业创造公平竞争的底层环境。 二是规范竞争行为，要以法治手段治理企业无序竞争。以多晶硅行业为例，通过行业自律与监管协同， 针对部分企业为抢占市场份额而实施的低于成本价倾销等乱象，依据《中华人民共和国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ningxia Development and Reform Commission has issued a plan for the allocation of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights for 2025, emphasizing the increase of green electricity consumption in key energy-intensive industries [1] Group 1: Renewable Energy Consumption Targets - The plan specifies that by 2025, the green electricity consumption ratio for the electrolytic aluminum industry will be no less than 34.2% [1] - The steel, cement, and polysilicon industries will also have a green electricity consumption ratio set at no less than 34.2% [1] - New data centers at national hub nodes are required to achieve a green electricity consumption ratio of 80% [1]

多晶硅产业日报 2025-08-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 50110 | -1235 多晶硅11-12价差 | -3220 | -85 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 136324 | -2072 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 41455 | -1190 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 47000 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -3110 | 1235 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8655 | -45 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -12197 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing fluctuations, with polysilicon futures showing a significant decline of 2.41% to 50,310.0 yuan/ton [1] Supply - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a notice regarding the special energy conservation inspection tasks for the polysilicon industry for 2025, which strengthens the expectations for capacity reduction in polysilicon production [1] Demand - Downstream silicon wafer companies are maintaining stable prices, and there is an increase in export demand due to expectations of reduced export tax rebates. Production schedules are expected to increase this month, with prices smoothly transmitting to battery cells. However, recent price reductions in mainstream component specifications raise concerns about end-user acceptance [1] Market Outlook - The photovoltaic industry is expected to remain a key area of focus, with support from lower spot prices. Downstream silicon wafers and battery cells are anticipated to rise in price, but components have not yet adjusted. There is an increase in warehouse receipts, leading to a cooling market sentiment, with short-term expectations of high-level fluctuations [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. However, specific investment suggestions are given for each variety: - **Buy Suggestions**: Index futures (sell far - month contracts), Treasury bonds (buy on dips), Precious metals (low - buying for silver, hold gold long - positions), Iron ore (buy on dips), Coking coal (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Coke (buy on dips, 9 - 1 calendar spread), Copper (hold), Aluminum (range - trading), Zinc (range - trading), Nickel (range - trading), Urea (buy on dips, quick profit - taking), PTA (range - trading, TA1 - 5 reverse spread, expand processing margin), PP (range - trading, stop - loss for previous short - positions), Maize (long - position for 01 contract), Industrial silicon (hold call options), Polysilicon (hold call options) [2] - **Sell Suggestions**: Gold (sell put options below 760 yuan), Steel (sell on rallies), Container shipping index (sell on rallies), Alumina (range - trading), Crude oil (wait for geopolitical clarity), Caustic soda (hold short - positions), PVC (stop - loss for short - positions), Pure benzene (observe or short - term long), Styrene (range - trading), Synthetic rubber (observe), LLDPE (short - term long), Cotton (reduce near - month short - positions, hold 01 short - positions), Eggs (long - term short), Apples (observe around 7800), Glass (hold short - positions), Carbonate lithium (observe cautiously) [2] 2. Core Views - **Market Environment**: The second round of China - US trade talks extended tariff exemption clauses, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, causing short - term market expectation differences. The policy negatives were exhausted in early August, and the capital market became looser [2]. - **Market Trends**: Index futures continued to rise, TMT regained popularity; Treasury bonds were expected to oscillate upward; Precious metals' upward trend slowed down; The container shipping index was expected to be weak; Steel and iron ore prices fluctuated; Non - ferrous metals were supported by fundamentals; Energy and chemical products showed different trends; Agricultural products were affected by factors such as production expectations and inventory; Special and new energy products had their own characteristics in price movements [2]. 3. Summary by Variety **Financial** - **Index Futures**: Continued to rise, with TMT heating up again. Recommended selling far - month contracts and shorting MO put options with strike prices of 6300 - 6400, with a mild bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With policy negatives exhausted and loose funds, they were expected to oscillate upward. Suggested buying on dips and paying attention to July economic data [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold's upward trend slowed down, and silver was affected by market sentiment. Gold long - positions were held above 3300 dollars (770 yuan), and silver was bought at low levels around 36 - 37 dollars (8700 - 9000 yuan) [2]. **Industrial** - **Container Shipping Index (EC)**: Expected to be weakly oscillating, with a strategy of selling on rallies [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel turned to oscillation, and iron ore followed steel price fluctuations. Suggested buying on dips for iron ore and using a long - coking coal and short - iron ore strategy [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper was supported by fundamentals, and the price range was 77000 - 79000; Aluminum was oscillating, and the range was 20000 - 21000; Zinc was oscillating in a narrow range, and the range was 22000 - 23000; Nickel was oscillating strongly, and the range was 118000 - 126000 [2]. **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Weakly oscillating, with a strategy of waiting for geopolitical clarity. Support levels were [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [490, 500] for SC [2]. - **Urea**: There was a game between export drive and weak domestic consumption. The short - term strategy was to buy on dips and take quick profits, and exit long - positions if the price did not break through 1770 - 1780 [2]. - **PTA**: With low processing fees and limited cost support, it was expected to oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4800. TA1 - 5 was treated with a reverse spread, and the processing margin was expanded at a low level (around 250) [2]. **Agricultural** - **Soybean Meal and Maize**: Maize was oscillating weakly, and the 01 contract of soybean meal was held long due to import concerns [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The price pulled back due to expected inventory increases. Observed whether P09 could stand firm at 9000 [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market was weak. Near - month short - positions were reduced, and 01 short - positions were held [2]. **Special and New Energy** - **Glass**: The spot sales weakened, and the contract was held short [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Both were oscillating upward, and call options were held [2]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price was pulled up by news, but there were uncertainties in the mining end. It was mainly observed cautiously [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are significantly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with relatively stable fundamentals. The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation, while the polysilicon market is mainly dominated by policy expectations and has large overall fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8400 yuan/ton and closed at 8700 yuan/ton, with a change of 305 yuan/ton (3.63%) compared to the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2509 main contract was 208,736 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,580 lots, a change of - 226 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon increased. For example, the price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9100 - 9400 yuan/ton [1] - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region decided to abolish the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Guide for the Consultation Mechanism for the Identification of Compliance Capacity of Industrial Silicon in the Autonomous Region", and relevant departments will continue to implement "window guidance" for new and technological transformation projects of industrial silicon. Industry associations in Yunnan and Sichuan issued an initiative against involution and for high - quality development. The policy disturbances had an impact on the market. The consumer - side organic silicon DMC was quoted at 12,100 - 12,500 yuan/ton, with stable prices, general trading, and mainly rigid - demand purchases [2] Strategy - The current market is greatly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with little change in fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation. The strategy for the single - side is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 50,300 yuan/ton and closing at 51,345 yuan/ton, with a closing - price change of 3.23% compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 138,396 lots (127,587 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 420,201 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, the silicon wafer inventory increased, the weekly polysilicon production increased by 3.92% to 26,500 tons, and the silicon wafer production decreased by 1.79% to 11.00GW [5] - In July, component enterprises slightly increased production, but the recent price fluctuations affected production enthusiasm. Distributed demand improved marginally but was still at a low level, and centralized demand had waiting and pressure - exerting behaviors from central state - owned enterprises. It is expected that the output in August will decrease slightly month - on - month, with better production and shipment of large - size components led by HJT [6] Strategy - In August, the production in the southwest is expected to increase significantly, the polysilicon inventory will rise, the delivery rhythm of previous orders will slow down, and the signing of new orders is limited except for granular silicon. The market is more watchful. The current market is mainly dominated by policy expectations, with large fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. The short - term single - side strategy is interval operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]

Group 1: Economic Transition and Policy Implications - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China has been supported by both market forces and government policies, reflecting an improvement in national governance capabilities[3] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to enhance institutional frameworks to help enterprises escape low-efficiency competition and focus on high-quality competition in technology, quality, and branding[6] - Recent political meetings have emphasized the need for long-term institutional changes rather than short-term price adjustments, reinforcing the core intent of the "anti-involution" policy[10] Group 2: Industry Upgrades and Standards - The ultimate goal of the "anti-involution" initiative is to increase value, leading to accelerated industrial upgrades through quality enhancement and brand differentiation, particularly for state-owned and leading enterprises[12] - New standards are being developed to phase out outdated production capacities, with specific industries like polysilicon already revising energy consumption standards to eliminate inefficiencies[14] - Industry concentration is expected to rise, as evidenced by recent moves from leading companies to acquire smaller competitors, indicating a consensus on consolidation even among private firms[14] Group 3: Local Government and Market Dynamics - Local government behaviors have contributed to the phenomenon of "involution," necessitating a focus on regulating these actions to unify market practices and standards[17] - The shift from financial subsidies to a focus on business environment and talent competition is anticipated to foster technological upgrades and innovation[20] - The cessation of land finance "involution" will lead to a greater emphasis on existing industries and resource endowments, enhancing local competitive advantages[21] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include potential overestimation of export growth impacting macroeconomic policy space and the possibility of credit support for "anti-involution" measures leading to unintended policy tightening[22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The confrontation between bulls and bears is intensifying, and nickel prices are fluctuating within a narrow range [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: The actual supply - demand situation is dragging down the market, but raw material costs limit the downside space [2][5]. - Lithium Carbonate: Chile's exports are picking up, and attention should be paid to the renewal of mining certificates [2][10]. - Industrial Silicon: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of market sentiment [2][14]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to today's market news [2][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 121,070, with a change compared to different previous periods. The closing price of the main stainless - steel contract was 12,935 [5]. - The trading volume of the main Shanghai nickel contract was 87,840, and that of the main stainless - steel contract was 82,019 [5]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [5]. - China Enfi's EPC - contracted Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and the government may fine violating companies and audit the entire park [6][7]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three to one year [7]. - The approved 2025 production target of the Indonesian nickel - mining association is 364 million tons, higher than that in 2024 [7]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production of all EF lines, expected to affect monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [7][8]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets starting from October 2025 [8]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 69,260, and that of the 2511 contract was 69,620. There were corresponding changes in trading volume and open interest [11]. - Various price data such as spot - contract basis, different lithium - salt product prices, and raw - material prices were provided [11]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's lithium - carbonate index price decreased. In July 2025, Chile's lithium - carbonate exports were 20,900 tons, with different changes in exports to different countries [12][13]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - For industrial silicon, the Si2511 closing price was 8,700, and for polysilicon, the PS2511 closing price was 51,345. There were corresponding data on trading volume, open interest, basis, price, profit, inventory, and raw - material costs [14]. Macro and Industry News - On August 1, the US launched anti - dumping and counter - subsidy sunset reviews on Chinese and Taiwanese crystalline - silicon photovoltaic products [15][16]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [16].

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: August 7, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The polysilicon market has multiple contracts running strongly, but the price increase in the industrial chain has not been smoothly transmitted to the component end. The supply and demand are generally in a loose pattern, and the price is mainly in a wide - range oscillation [4] Group 4: Market Performance - The PS2509 contract of polysilicon closed at 51,345 yuan/ton, with a 3.23% increase, a trading volume of 420,201 lots, and an open interest of 138,396 lots, with a net increase of 10,809 lots [4] Group 5: Market Outlook - Polysilicon is supported by comprehensive costs and spot prices, but the price increase in the industrial chain has not been smoothly transmitted to the component end. In August, the polysilicon production schedule increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. Since June, the terminal demand has declined, and the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells has dropped to about 52GW. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the policy has entered the implementation stage, cooling the market sentiment. The price will generally remain in a wide - range oscillation [4] Group 6: Market News - On August 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,120 lots, a net increase of 250 from the previous trading day [5] - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5] - On August 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the special energy - saving supervision task list for the polysilicon industry in 2025, requiring local departments to standardize supervision procedures and report results by September 30, 2025 [5] - In June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a 3% month - on - month decrease and a 2% decrease compared with June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (indicating a slight bullish/bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: No specific rating provided - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, production disruptions, policy expectations, and market sentiment. Each metal has its own trading strategies based on its specific situation [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated below the MA60 moving average and closed positive. The current copper price was 78,350 yuan, with a premium of 100 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 660 yuan. The market was evaluating the impact of the Codelco underground mine accident on the annual production target, with a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. LME copper might oscillate down to $9,500, and short positions were recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot discount of 40 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingots had been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. However, the output of aluminum rods increased month - on - month, and the inventory peak might appear in August. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate in the short term, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price was raised by 100 yuan to 19,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry was poor. In the medium term, it had certain toughness relative to the aluminum price. Alumina was under pressure and oscillating, with limited downward space [2] Zinc - The rebound trend of "anti - involution" black varieties was difficult to disprove. Shanghai zinc short - sellers reduced positions on dips, and the price rebounded. The downstream had stocked up at low prices before and was less willing to buy at high prices, resulting in a light spot trading volume. The fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand still dominated the medium - term short - selling strategy. However, due to positive expectations of domestic fiscal policies and Fed rate cuts during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, Shanghai zinc had a high probability of a phased rebound. Traders were advised to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme cooled down rapidly, and nickel, with relatively poor fundamentals, returned to its fundamentals more quickly. The inventory of ferronickel was basically stable at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons. Traders were advised to pay attention to the end of the destocking process [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated during the session, and it was expected to be in an oscillating market. Overseas tin prices were supported by low visible inventory and a decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, attention was paid to the change in high social inventory due to the game between the major factory maintenance plan and weak consumption. Traders were advised to close high - level short positions and wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated weakly, and the market trading volume shrank. After the price fluctuated repeatedly, the futures - spot lock was unlocked, and a large amount of goods entered the market. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons, and the smelter production decreased by 8% week - on - week. The price was expected to oscillate around 70,000 yuan [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed strongly. Xinjiang abolished the notice on the compliance capacity certification of industrial silicon, but it was clear that window guidance would still be implemented later. The spot price remained stable. In August, both supply and demand increased. The futures were expected to oscillate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon continued to rise, partly driven by the strength of coking coal. The SMM average price of polysilicon re - feed was 47,000 yuan/ton. The price was expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and traders were advised to pay attention to the sentiment transmission of coking coal and strengthen position risk control [10]