Group 1: Silicon Industry - The average transaction price of silicon materials has slightly increased, but the growth rate has narrowed compared to the previous period, with 4 to 5 companies signing contracts, mainly concentrated among the top two companies [1] - The slight recovery in polysilicon prices is attributed to the increase in downstream silicon wafer prices and reduced inventory pressure for some wafer companies, leading to a higher acceptance of raw material cost increases [1] - The true market recovery relies on the enhancement of companies' comprehensive competitiveness and the implementation of relevant national standards [1] Group 2: Changjiang Electric Power - Changjiang Electric Power reported a net profit of 12.984 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.22% [2] - The total operating revenue reached 36.587 billion yuan, up 5.02% year-on-year, driven by increased power generation from six cascade power stations [2] - The growth in performance indicates stability in the hydropower business, providing a stable expectation for the market [2] Group 3: San Chao New Materials - San Chao New Materials is planning a change in company control and has applied for a stock suspension starting July 31, 2025, for no more than two trading days [3] - The suspension aims to ensure fair information disclosure and protect investor interests, avoiding abnormal stock price fluctuations [3] - There is uncertainty regarding the completion and outcome of the transaction, and the market will await further announcements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent acquisition rumors in the photovoltaic industry have significantly stimulated the polysilicon market, leading to a notable price increase and heightened market optimism [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On July 30, the main polysilicon futures contract hit the limit up, closing with an increase of 8.87%, with a trading volume increase of 22,800 contracts and a net inflow of 1.223 billion yuan [1][4]. - The market sentiment remains bullish despite the China Photovoltaic Association's denial of the acquisition rumors, which did not provide specific details [2][4]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The polysilicon sector is undergoing a severe adjustment since 2025, with high levels of production capacity and inventory posing significant challenges [7][8]. - The domestic polysilicon inventory has exceeded 300,000 tons, reaching a historical high, with some companies experiencing inventory turnover days exceeding 90 days [8]. Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive industry consolidation and the elimination of outdated production capacity, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planning to introduce a growth stabilization plan for key industries, including photovoltaics [6][9]. - The current market dynamics indicate a potential improvement in the polysilicon sector, but caution is advised regarding the sustainability of price increases driven by policy expectations rather than fundamental demand [12][11].

终端对价格接受容忍程度低，多晶硅需求增长将受限。综合供应端有潜在增量、需求端增长存在不确定性 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 ，以及政策和宏观经济等因素，预计下周多晶硅行情将面临一定调整。价格虽有成本和政策支撑，但上方 免责声明 多晶硅产业日报 2025-07-30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 54705 | 3900 8-9月多晶硅价差 | -75 | -50 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 164490 | 23852 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 45420 | 3965 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 46500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -4305 | -1400 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | ...

Group 1 - The average transaction price of polysilicon n-type raw materials this week is 47,100 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.64% [1] - The average transaction price of n-type granular silicon is 44,300 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.68% [1] - The increase in polysilicon prices is primarily due to rising downstream silicon wafer prices and reduced inventory pressure for some wafer companies, leading to a slight price increase by polysilicon producers [1] Group 2 - The number of domestic polysilicon producers has returned to 10, with two companies partially resuming production, contributing to a slight output increase [2] - In July, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 107,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.7%, while the cumulative production from January to July was 704,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.5% [2] - The expected production for August is around 125,000 tons, and if capacity integration occurs as planned, domestic polysilicon capacity may reduce to approximately 2.3 million tons per year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical game deadline between Russia and Ukraine has been advanced, and the macro - situation has positive expectations. The short - term market has upward support, and attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - The short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the decline in safe - haven demand, and focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are presented based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy impacts, and inventory changes. For example, some commodities are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate [4][5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight crude oil futures rose sharply. The geopolitical game deadline has been advanced, and the short - term market has upward support. Attention should be paid to the realization of benefits from Sino - US economic and trade talks and US sanctions against Russia [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Macro and geopolitical game news boost oil prices, but the cracking spread is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak, and the cracking spread is likely to be volatile and weak [22]. - **Asphalt**: The domestic production volume in August decreased compared with July. Demand recovery was delayed, and the inventory destocking rhythm slowed down. The price follows the direction of crude oil, but the upward space is limited [23]. - **Urea**: The futures main contract is running at a low level. Domestic downstream demand is weak, exports are advancing, and short - term prices are likely to run within a range [24]. - **Methanol**: The unloading speed of foreign vessels in coastal areas is slow, and the port is unexpectedly destocked. Domestic supply is sufficient, and the market is likely to continue to fluctuate within a range [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: Night - time oil prices rose sharply, which is expected to boost the cost of pure benzene. Supply and demand decreased in the week, and the port slightly accumulated inventory. Seasonal supply - demand improvement is expected in the third quarter, and it is recommended to conduct monthly spread band operations [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC showed strength at night. Supply decreased, domestic demand was weak, and foreign demand was expected to improve. Caustic soda showed a volatile trend, with long - term supply pressure and high - level pressure on prices [27]. - **PX & PTA**: Night - time prices rebounded slightly. The fundamentals of PX had limited driving force, and PTA continued to accumulate inventory. The medium - term processing margin has a repair drive, but it needs to wait for downstream demand to recover [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply is shifting, short - term oil prices are strong, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory fluctuates at a low level. Attention should be paid to external variables [29]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Prices rebounded following raw materials. Short - fiber is considered for long - allocation in the medium - term, while bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [30]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight precious metals fluctuated. Safe - haven demand declined, and short - term precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trend. Focus on US economic data and the Fed meeting [3]. - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated and closed up. The market focuses on the implementation of US tariff agreements and Fed meetings. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average, and short positions are held against integer levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations. Demand declined in the off - season, inventory increased, and it is mainly in short - term shock adjustment with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the price is under short - term pressure but has certain resilience in the medium - term. Consider long AD and short AL when the price difference expands [6]. - **Alumina**: The price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, and the inventory is in a surplus state. Sell short when the price approaches the recent high of 3,500 yuan [7]. - **Zinc**: The black price rebounded, and the zinc price adjustment rhythm was not smooth. Supply increased and demand was weak, and the inventory continued to rise. In the medium - term, the idea of short - allocation on rebounds is maintained, and wait for clear short signals [8]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak, the rebound rhythm is slow, and there is support at 16,800 yuan/ton. You can try long positions lightly and hold them against this price [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuated. The speculation of the "anti - involution" theme cooled down, and nickel may return to fundamentals. Wait patiently for short opportunities [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fluctuated. Short - term support is at the MA40 moving average and 265,000 yuan. In the long - term, high - level supply expectations will suppress prices. Hold short positions above 270,000 yuan [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It fluctuated, and the trading was active. The market rumors of mine shutdowns were refuted. The inventory increased, and the mid - stream output decreased slightly. Try long positions lightly in the short - term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures rose sharply. The terminal is waiting and watching, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. After the previous sharp rise, the market enters a wide - range shock. Choose low - long opportunities and control positions [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures rose slightly. The fundamentals are weak, but the price is at a historical low. Be cautious about short - selling unilaterally and control risks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The overnight futures rose. Supply increased globally but decreased in domestic arrivals. The inventory pressure is not large, and the demand is weak and stable. The price is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Coke**: The price rose significantly during the day. The fourth round of price increases was proposed, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downward space is relatively limited [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rose significantly during the day, and the far - month contract hit the daily limit. The inventory decreased in the production end, and the downward space is relatively limited [18]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The price followed the rise. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation of manganese ore has improved, and there is an upward driving force in the short - term [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price followed the rise. The demand is acceptable, and the price may have an upward driving force in the short - term [20]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Sino - US economic and trade negotiations are ongoing, and the US soybean growing conditions are good. The price is treated as volatile for now [34]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US market shows oil - strong and meal - weak. Domestic soybean oil is strong, and the EU policy is positive for palm oil. Maintain the idea of long - allocation on dips [35]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed rose overnight. The rapeseed meal price stabilized slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slowly. Take a short - term neutral attitude towards rapeseed products [36]. - **Domestic Soybean**: After a sharp reduction in positions and a callback, the price stabilized. Pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and weather conditions [37]. - **Corn**: The US corn is growing well. The domestic corn market has no major contradictions, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak and volatile at the bottom [38]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price continued to fall, and the futures are likely to have peaked. Suggest hedging on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The futures price fluctuated little. The spot price was stable in most areas. The 09 contract focuses on the seasonal rebound of the spot price, and long positions are more inclined to far - month contracts [40]. - **Cotton**: US cotton's excellent - good rate decreased, and Brazil's harvest progress was slow. Zheng cotton maintained a high - level shock. Temporarily wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the uncertainty of China's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased. The short - term sugar price is expected to be volatile [42]. - **Apple**: The futures price fluctuated. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and the market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Temporarily wait and see [43]. - **Timber**: The demand is good during the off - season, and the inventory pressure is small. The futures price is expected to continue to rise [44]. - **Pulp**: The price fell slightly. The domestic port inventory is relatively high, the demand is weak, and the price may return to low - level volatility. Temporarily wait and see [45]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market freight rate inflection point is becoming clear, and the price is expected to decline further. The extension of tariff exemptions may boost market sentiment [21]. - **Stock Index**: A - shares rose steadily in the afternoon, and the futures index rose. The risk preference of the global market is oscillating strongly. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed down. The global trade sentiment has improved, and the bond market may have increased volatility in the short - term. The probability of a steeper yield curve increases [47].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The anti - involution initiative has affected the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets. The industrial silicon market has a relatively good short - term supply - demand pattern, but there are still many复产 expectations in the southwest and northwest regions. The polysilicon market is greatly disturbed by the anti - involution news, and the official has no clear information yet [1][2][4][7]. - Participants in both markets need to do a good job in risk management. For industrial silicon, if the market rebounds significantly, sell - hedging can be considered; for polysilicon, short - term range operation is recommended [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose. The main contract 2509 opened at 8915 yuan/ton and closed at 9350 yuan/ton, up 2.35% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2509 was 276,734 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,082 lots, a decrease of 31 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9700 - 9900 yuan/ton (down 150 yuan/ton), and 421 silicon was 9900 - 10400 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton). The prices in some regions such as Xinjiang, Kunming, and Huangpu Port also continued to decline, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - The organic silicon DMC quotation was 12100 - 12800 yuan/ton. The supply of the organic silicon market shrank, and manufacturers' willingness to hold prices increased significantly [1]. - **Strategy** - Short - term cautious bullish. If the market rebounds significantly, sell - hedging can be considered. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 29, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 49500 yuan/ton and closing at 50805 yuan/ton, up 3.76% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 140,638 lots (136,295 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 546,037 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 44.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 24.30 (a month - on - month decrease of 2.41%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.87GW (a month - on - month increase of 11.55%). The weekly polysilicon output was 25,500.00 tons (a month - on - month increase of 10.87%), and the silicon wafer output was 11.20GW (a month - on - month increase of 0.90%) [4]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained relatively stable, with only slight changes in the prices of some battery cells [4][6]. - There were many news about anti - involution, storage, mergers, and acquisitions, but the official had no clear announcements, and the PV Industry Association refuted the rumors [6]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 29, polysilicon prices stopped falling and rebounded. The main 2509 contract closed at 50,805 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 3.76%. The N-type recycled polysilicon material price rose to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also reached 46,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 4,245 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a strong oscillation. The main 2509 contract closed at 9,350 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.35%. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 277 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 255 yuan/ton. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology re - emphasized consolidating the comprehensive governance results against excessive competition, highlighting the governance of key industries such as photovoltaics to force out backward production capacity through standard improvement. Polysilicon was boosted by the news and regained momentum. Industrial silicon was driven up by polysilicon and showed a strong performance. Currently, policies still support the market, but after the pre - speculative demand was realized, market sentiment cooled down, and there is insufficient momentum to reach new highs. After the exchange adjusted margins and handling fees, heavy - position chasing and killing should be avoided. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse spread space and PS/SI ratio arbitrage, as well as the resumption of production in the southwest region and policy progress [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,085 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,995 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions declined. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 9,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 20 yuan to 255 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 31 to 50,082, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 3,415 tons to 248,550 tons. Other port and factory inventories remained stable [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 1,400 yuan/ton to 50,805 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 1,340 yuan/ton to 50,745 yuan/ton. All spot prices increased, with the N - type granular silicon material rising by 10,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose by 2,000 yuan/ton to 46,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed by 660 yuan to 4,245 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 50 to 3,070, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 9.06 tons. The factory and social inventories remained unchanged [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained at 12,500 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 14,500 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: Data on silicon wafers and battery cells were not available. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades and regions, as well as the prices of silicon stone, refined coal, and electricity [5][7][11]. 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][16]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [19][22]. 3.2.4 Cost - profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC and polysilicon [25][27][31]. 4. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media [33]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [33]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [34].

记者向中国光伏行业协会相关负责人求证，截至发稿尚未取得回复。 来源丨上海证券报 编辑丨江佩佩 实习生郑莹莹 理想大涨超6%，i8售价32万起，李想：曾遭遇汽车史上最大抹黑 中国"电鸡"，驶向东南亚 SFC 21君荐读 据上海证券报，当日有自媒体发文称，7月29日北京举办了一场"决定中国多晶硅产业未来格局 的闭门会议"，来自全国的17家多晶硅企业高管参与，文内还描述了"行业重组白皮书"收储方 案内容。 一家硅料巨头企业向记者证实，7月29日确实举办了硅料企业的闭门会议，但是具体内容尚不 能对外披露，一切以官方发布信息为准。 7月29日晚，中国光伏行业协会发表澄清公告称"近日有部分自媒体发布了关于光伏行业反内 卷，特别是多晶硅方面工作的新闻，相关内容与实际情况严重不符！请大家不信谣！不传 谣！" 中国光伏行业协会表示，其将秉着法治化、市场化原则推进反内卷工作，力求尽快走出内卷式 恶性竞争，一切以官方发布信息为准。 ...

周二，多晶硅期货表现强势，主力2509合约收盘上涨3.76%，收盘价报50805元/吨。市场分析指出，这 一涨势延续了近期"反内卷"政策预期下的市场热度。 现货方面，据市场数据显示，多晶硅N型致密料主流价格稳定在46.5元/kg，N型复投料主流价格维持在 47元/kg，现货市场整体持稳运行。恒银期货分析指出，多晶硅期货的强势表现主要受到政策预期和产 业链价格传导的双重支撑。虽然广期所上调了保证金及持仓限额，但投机资金依然活跃，持仓量增至 14.06万手，净多单1.2万手，显示多头主导的市场格局。 工信部昨日表态或是推动价格上涨的主要原因？ 政策面因素成为推动多晶硅价格上涨的核心动力。7月28日，全国工业和信息化主管部门负责同志座谈 会在京召开，会议强调要"加强光伏等重点行业治理，以标准提升倒逼落后产能退出"。这一表述与7月 24日中国光伏行业协会会议上提出的"修订多晶硅能耗标准，推动落后产能出清"的倡议形成呼应。 弘业期货分析团队认为："作为本轮反内卷的核心品种，多晶硅的政策消息和市场传闻较多，形成了较 强的市场预期。工信部的最新表态印证了行业整顿的决心，这为价格提供了支撑。"据银河期货分析， 倘若日内产能整 ...

期货热点追踪 工信部最新表态印证了行业整顿的决心，多晶硅重回涨势！对于后市走势，机构总体呈谨慎乐观的态 度，但也指出潜在风险不容忽视……点击了解。 相关链接 ...