Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards short, indicating a downward trend but limited operability on the trading board) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading board, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability on the trading board, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by different factors such as tariffs, inventory changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic sentiment. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - Copper prices declined on Thursday, breaking below the MA60 moving average. Trump excluded refined copper from import tariff hikes, mainly targeting copper processed products, reversing the physical import arbitrage expectation. Hold short positions [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai Aluminum slightly corrected, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by over 10,000 tons compared to Monday, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. The position of Shanghai Aluminum continued to fall from a high to below 600,000 lots, and it may continue to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai Aluminum, with a Baotai spot price of 19,600 yuan. The scrap aluminum market has a tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative, with short - term price pressure but some resilience in the medium term compared to aluminum prices. Consider a long AD and short AL strategy if the price difference on the futures market widens. Recently, the alumina price has risen sharply, the industry profit has recovered, the operating capacity has reached a new high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. Participate in short positions near the recent high of 3,500 yuan [3] Zinc - The macro - optimistic sentiment faded, and zinc trading returned to the fundamentals. Long positions continued to reduce, and the weighted position of Shanghai Zinc decreased by 9,725 lots to 214,000 lots. The SMM0 zinc was quoted at par with the near - month futures contract. After the sharp decline in zinc prices, the enthusiasm of downstream customers to fix prices at low points increased significantly, and the spot trading improved. The SMM zinc social inventory decreased to 103,200 tons. The pattern of increasing supply and weak demand in the fundamentals remains unchanged, and short - selling on rebounds is still the main strategy, but be vigilant against macro - economic fluctuations in the short term [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai Nickel fluctuated, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the anti - involution theme cooled down, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals may return to the fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,150 yuan, the premium of imported nickel was 400 yuan, and the premium of electrowinning nickel was 100 yuan. The price support from the upstream has weakened significantly. The nickel - iron inventory decreased by 4,300 tons to 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 40,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 967,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Look for opportunities to short [7] Tin - Shanghai Tin declined and broke below the MA40 moving average. The current spot tin price is 265,500 yuan, with a real - time premium of 620 yuan over the delivery - month contract. It is expected that the tin price will decline towards the MA60 moving average and 262,000 yuan. Hold short positions [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened lower and fluctuated, performing stronger than other anti - involution varieties, and the market trading was active. The platform price is 72,000 yuan, and there is a situation of high - price but no trading in the spot market. The total market inventory continued to rise to a recent high of 143,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 55,000 tons, the downstream inventory slightly increased by 1,600 tons to 43,000 tons, and the trader inventory continued to increase by 1,660 tons to 45,000 tons. Traders are positive, and the sentiment of bottom - fishing in the spot market continues. The latest price of Australian ore has rebounded significantly from a low. The mid - stream production is generally stable, with a 3% month - on - month decline. Technically, the lithium carbonate futures price has returned to a reasonable range, and there is still potential for theme - based trading. Try long positions with a light position in the short term [9] Industrial Silicon - After the introduction of the position - limit policy for industrial silicon futures, the market declined with a reduction in positions. The silicon price has fluctuated sharply recently. The current multi - silicon market sentiment transmission effect has temporarily ended, and industrial silicon may gradually return to the fundamental - driven logic, continuing to fluctuate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures declined significantly with a reduction in positions under the position - limit policy. The average price of N - type dense material is 45,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of N - type re -投料 is 46,500 yuan/ton. Supported by the full cost, the upward trend of the spot price is expected to stabilize gradually. In the future, the PS2509 main contract is affected by factors such as the expectation of eliminating backward production capacity, regulatory control, and supply - demand contradictions. The support level is in the range of 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 55,000 yuan/ton. It is likely to fluctuate widely within the range, and there are still fluctuations under policy uncertainties. Pay attention to position control [11]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - The current weak demand for copper is due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment power, but the balance will be relatively tight after August. The annual apparent demand for copper is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to - long - term bullish view on Shanghai copper is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered for establishment in the third quarter [1] - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate slightly in August. Pay attention to demand and consider far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1][2] - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Suggest short - term observation, holding internal - external positive arbitrage, and paying attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - Nickel supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] - The fundamentals of stainless steel remain weak. Pay attention to the policy trend due to the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - aspect [7] - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, and demand has improved but still expects inventory accumulation. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [9] - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe or short lightly at high prices in the short term [12] - The production of industrial silicon decreased in July, and the supply - demand balance turned to inventory reduction. The industrial silicon market is expected to oscillate, and the price may decline if supply increases significantly [15] - The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate show strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the intermediate links. If resource - end risks are realized, the price has upward potential; otherwise, it will maintain low - level oscillation [17] Summary by Metal Copper - From July 24th to 30th, the spot price of Shanghai copper fluctuated, and the inventory increased by 9,225 tons. The current demand is weak, but the balance will be tight after August. The annual apparent demand is expected to be 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to - long - term bullish view is maintained [1] Aluminum - From July 24th to 30th, the price of aluminum ingots fluctuated slightly, and the inventory increased slightly in July and is expected to continue to increase in August. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and arbitrage opportunities [1][2] Zinc - From July 24th to 30th, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. It is recommended to observe in the short term, hold internal - external positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5] Nickel - From July 24th to 30th, the price of nickel decreased, and the inventory was stable. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6] Stainless Steel - From July 24th to 30th, the price of stainless steel was relatively stable. The fundamentals remain weak, and attention should be paid to the policy trend [7] Lead - From July 24th to 30th, lead prices declined slightly. Supply is expected to increase slightly in July, and demand has improved but still expects inventory accumulation. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,800 and 17,500 next week [9] Tin - From July 24th to 30th, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe or short lightly at high prices in the short term [12] Industrial Silicon - From July 24th to 30th, the production of industrial silicon decreased in July, and the supply - demand balance turned to inventory reduction. The market is expected to oscillate, and the price may decline if supply increases significantly [15] Lithium Carbonate - From July 24th to 30th, the price of lithium carbonate increased, and the inventory pressure in the intermediate links increased. If resource - end risks are realized, the price has upward potential; otherwise, it will maintain low - level oscillation [17]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-31 7月政治局会议落地，投资者重新关注消费 有⾊观点：7⽉政治局会议落地，投资者重新关注消费 交易逻辑：7月政治局会议基本符合预期，潜在增量刺激政策还需等 待，市场关注点逐步重新转向消费走弱；美欧达成15%关税，中美关 税进一步延期，整体来看，美国关税政策还未完全明朗，另外国内增 量刺激政策预期延后。供需面来看，基本金属供需逐步季节性趋松， 国内库存逐步季节性回升。中短期来看，关税不确定性及需求走弱预 期压制价格，但低库存及供应扰动对价格有支撑，主要关注结构性机 会，谨慎关注铝锡低吸短多机会，逢高沽空锌锭；同时，密切留意美 铜进口关税落地情况，若真在7月底执行50%进口关税，则铜价可能会 面临短时抛压，中长期来看，基本金属需求前景仍存在不确定性， 可关注部分供需偏过剩或者预期过剩品种的逢高沽空机会。 铜观点：政治局会议落地，铜价震荡运⾏。 氧化铝观点：仓单⼩幅增⻓，氧化铝延续宽幅震荡。 铝观点：累库趋势延续，铝价窄幅震荡。 铝合⾦观点：淡季氛围浓厚，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点："反内卷"情绪再起VS库存累积，锌价震荡运 ...

| 摘要 | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低，受美盘铜大幅回落影响。美国仅对铜材加征50%关税，但 精炼铜豁免，出乎市场预期。目前精矿加工费总体低位，考验冶炼产量。根 | | | | 据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 间波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | 锌 | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。今 | 可能短期宽 | | | 年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波动，关注美 | 幅波动 | | | 国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285 ...

证券代码：000758 证券简称：中色股份 公告编号：2025-053 中国有色金属建设股份有限公司 关于召开 2025 年第四次临时股东大会的通知 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 中国有色金属建设股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第十届董事会第 8 次 会议审议通过了《关于召开 2025 年第四次临时股东大会的议案》。现就召开本 次股东大会的有关事项通知如下： 一、召开会议的基本情况 第 8 次会议以 7 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权审议通过了《关于召开 2025 年第四 次临时股东大会的议案》，决定召开 2025 年第四次临时股东大会。 于股权登记日 2025 年 8 月 13 日（星期三）下午收市时在中国结算深圳分公 司登记在册的公司全体普通股股东均有权出席股东大会，并可以以书面形式委托 代理人出席会议和参加表决，该股东代理人不必是公司股东。 （2）公司董事、监事和高级管理人员。 （3）公司聘请的见证律师。 （4）根据相关法规应当出席的股东大会的其他人员。 议室。 二、会议审议事项 法规、部门规章、规范性文件、深交所股票上市规则和公司章程 ...

即日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年7月30日 星期三 70015979 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79025 | 79075 | -50.00 | -0.06% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 110 | વેર | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 78910 | 78930 | -20.00 | -0.03% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | O | -10 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 78930 | 78985 | -55.00 | -0.07% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 15 | 5 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 965 | aeo | +5.00 | 0.52% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -54.34 | -53.68 | -0.66 | - | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - This week features several major macro - events including the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the implementation of US copper tariffs. Uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs exist. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will pressure both SHFE and LME copper prices. Copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish due to seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports despite tight raw material supply [1]. - Domestic black commodities have stabilized and rebounded. The market sentiment in the US and Europe is positive as they are close to reaching an agreement. Aluminum prices are likely to be range - bound and slightly bearish as low domestic aluminum ingot inventories support prices, but weak downstream demand and reduced export demand limit price rebounds [3]. - The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightening with a slight decline in primary lead production and a low - level increase in recycled lead production. With the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, downstream demand is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on lead smelters expands, both single - side prices and spreads may strengthen [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as domestic zinc ore supply remains abundant, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase significantly, and inventories are rising. In the short - term, the Fed's interest - rate decision is awaited, and there are still structural risks in the overseas LME zinc market [6]. - Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term. Although the supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end currently faces raw material supply pressure. Domestic demand is in the off - season, while overseas demand is driven by AI computing power. Tin prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly bearish [7]. - The short - term macro - environment has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and speculative inventory may be released, driving the price of nickel and related products down. The price of nickel ore is expected to continue to decline [8]. - The short - term fundamental improvement of lithium carbonate depends on the passive reduction of ore supply. Although there are frequent news disturbances, it is difficult to return to previous lows. The price may rebound today due to a positive commodity market atmosphere last night. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see [10]. - The over - capacity situation of alumina may be difficult to change. Although the short - term sentiment for going long on commodities has declined, the number of registered warehouse receipts is still low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - Stainless steel mills are firm in their short - term price - support policies, limiting the decline of spot prices. However, considering the planned increase in stainless steel production in August and potential insufficient terminal demand, the market needs to focus on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although there is cost support, the large difference between futures and spot prices creates upward pressure on prices [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.41% at $9803/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 79090 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 225 tons to 127625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 18,000 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic copper spot import loss was about 400 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed down 0.95% at $2606/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20620 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 million tons to 45.6 million tons, and domestic three - region aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.55 million tons to 38.2 million tons [3]. - **Market**: The processing fee for aluminum rods continued to rise, and the market was mostly in a wait - and - see state [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.07% at 16903 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $3 to $2016/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 6.09 million tons, and LME lead inventory was 26.37 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The price difference between refined and scrap lead was 25 yuan/ton, and domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 6.48 million tons [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.06% at 22651 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell $16.5 to $2806/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 1.53 million tons, and domestic social inventory continued to increase to 10.37 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The TC index of imported zinc concentrates increased significantly, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase [6]. Tin - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, SHFE tin's main contract closed at 266660 yuan/ton, down 0.46% [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts increased by 260 tons to 7529 tons, and LME inventory increased by 35 tons to 1855 tons [7]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end currently faces raw material pressure [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel ore prices were weakly stable, and high - nickel ferro - nickel prices were stable [8]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [8]. - **Market**: The short - term macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: On July 30, the MMLC index for lithium carbonate closed at 71,832 yuan, down 4.01%. The LC2509 contract closed at 70,840 yuan, down 3.12% [10]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text [10]. - **Market**: The short - term fundamental improvement depends on the reduction of ore supply, and the price may rebound today [10]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 29, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.79% to 3290 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts were 0.42 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from the previous day [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity situation may be difficult to change, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12920 yuan/ton on July 30, up 0.62% [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory was 103599 tons, down 6973 tons from the previous day, and social inventory decreased to 111.86 million tons [15]. - **Market**: Mills are firm in price - support policies, but attention should be paid to downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract slightly fell to 20020 yuan/ton [17]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - region recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory slightly increased to 3.09 million tons [17]. - **Market**: The off - season situation persists, with weak supply and demand [17].

订稿） 有研新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"有研新材"或"公司"）是上海证券 交易所主板上市公司。为满足公司业务发展的资金需求，增强公司资本实力，提 升盈利能力，根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称"《公司法》"）《中 华人民共和国证券法》（以下简称"《证券法》"）《上市公司证券发行注册管 理办法》（以下简称"《注册管理办法》"）等有关法律、法规和规范性文件的 规定，公司编制了 2024 年度向特定对象发行 A 股股票方案论证分析报告。 证券代码：600206 证券简称：有研新材 有研新材料股份有限公司 方案论证分析报告 （修订稿） 二〇二五年七月 有研新材料股份有限公司 本报告中如无特别说明，相关用语具有与《有研新材料股份有限公司 2024 年度向特定对象发行 A 股股票预案（修订稿）》中相同的含义。 一、本次发行的背景及目的 公司在日常经营过程中，需要使用一定规模的资金用于采购各种原材料，对 资金需求量较大，近些年来，原材料价格受市场需求、供给等因素影响，价格呈 现一定的波动。公司本次发行将进一步增强公司资本实力，优化资产负债结构， 提升公司的盈利能力和抗风险能力，从而实现股东价值的最大化。 本次发行的目 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's risk - aversion sentiment is easing due to the approaching effectiveness of reciprocal tariffs and the progress of trade talks. However, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies may lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the Fed's independence is also unclear. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level volatility. - For various metals, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policy expectations, and macro - economic data. Each metal has different trading strategies according to its specific situation [2][4]. 3. Summaries by Metal Types Precious Metals Market Review - London gold fell for four consecutive days, closing down 0.68% at $3314.63 per ounce; London silver closed flat at $38.17 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures fell 0.31% to 770.84 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.27% to 9200 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index rose 1% to 98.633, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.417%, and the RMB against the US dollar fell 0.15% to 7.1787 [2]. Important资讯 - Trump may announce tariffs on drugs, with global tariffs around 15 - 20%. Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm on July 28. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and in September is 35.4% [2]. Logic Analysis - Market risk - aversion sentiment eases, and the short - term rebound of the US dollar pressures precious metals. In the long run, precious metals are expected to maintain high - level volatility due to uncertainties [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Temporarily wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Buy deep out - of - the - money call options on dips [4]. Copper Market Review - Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 79010 yuan per ton, up 0.04%, with the index reducing positions by 617 to 498300 lots. LME copper closed at $9762.5 per ton, down 0.34%. LME inventory increased by 3700 tons to 128000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 776 tons to 248000 tons [6]. Important资讯 - Sino - US trade talks were held on July 28. Peru is evaluating 134 mining projects with an expected investment of $6 billion [6]. Logic Analysis - Market is affected by tariff expectations. Domestic smelters maintain high production, and supply and demand are weak [9]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term pressure and oscillation. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina Market Review - Alumina 2509 contract fell 14 yuan to 3260 yuan per ton at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [12]. Important资讯 - Some alumina enterprises did not receive environmental control notices. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a work plan for the stable growth of key industries. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10000 tons of alumina. The national alumina operating capacity increased by 1.1 million tons to 94.95 million tons, with an operating rate of 84.01% [12][14]. Logic Analysis - Speculative sentiment cools, and the price is under pressure. The theoretical surplus expands, and the inventory has been increasing since June [15]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure and oscillating, pay attention to cost support. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose 10 yuan to 20660 yuan per ton at night. Aluminum ingot spot prices in different regions fell [19]. Important资讯 - China's aluminum ingot inventory increased by 20000 tons to 514000 tons. The price law is being revised. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and the US will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods. Huafeng Aluminum plans to purchase at least 360000 tons of aluminum products from Shaanxi Non - ferrous Yulin New Materials Group [20][21]. Logic Analysis - Macro factors affect the market. Domestically, the inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to increase, and the spread between months may narrow first and then widen [22][24]. Trading Strategy - No specific strategy provided in the content. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 20055 yuan per ton at night. ADC12 alloy ingot spot prices in different regions fell [26]. Important资讯 - The weekly output of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 800 tons to 141600 tons, and the total inventory increased by 4600 tons to 132400 tons. The price law is being revised [27]. Logic Analysis - Supply is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and demand is affected by different types of orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost following the aluminum price [28]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is under pressure. - Arbitrage: Consider positive spread trading for 09 - 12 contracts after the spread converges due to inventory accumulation. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [29]. Zinc Market Review - LME zinc fell 0.83% to $2805.5 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2509 fell 0.31% to 22665 yuan per ton. Shanghai zinc index reduced positions by 1756 to 222600 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were between 22670 - 22775 yuan per ton, and the spot premium slightly increased [33]. Important资讯 - SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 103700 tons. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will carry out a rectification action for heavy - metal environmental safety hazards [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply of zinc concentrates is sufficient, and the output of refined zinc is expected to increase. Consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating [34][36]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable short positions can be held, set stop - profit points. - Arbitrage: Buy put options. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [36]. Lead Market Review - LME lead fell 0.15% to $2017.5 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2509 rose 0.03% to 16945 yuan per ton. Shanghai lead index reduced positions by 2285 to 99700 lots. Spot prices in different regions had different quotations, and the market trading was light [38]. Important资讯 - SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory increased to 71700 tons. Guizhou Lukong Environmental Protection Technology's smelting system was successfully put into operation, with an annual production capacity of 200000 tons of lead ingots. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will carry out a rectification action for heavy - metal environmental safety hazards [38][40]. Logic Analysis - The cost of recycled lead supports the price. The supply is affected by production inspections and losses, and the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has slightly improved [40]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Profitable long positions can be held, beware of macro risks. - Arbitrage: Sell put options. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [43]. Nickel Market Review - LME nickel fell to $15230 per ton, and its inventory increased to 204036 tons. Shanghai nickel NI2509 fell to 122130 yuan per ton. Jinchuan nickel's premium increased to 2150 yuan per ton [42]. Important资讯 - Indonesia is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring a nickel smelter. A new nickel project in Indonesia is expected to start in Q4 2025, with an annual ore - processing target of 8 million tons [42][45]. Logic Analysis - The market atmosphere is weak, and the supply and demand of nickel are weak in July and August, with the price oscillating [45]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term follow the macro - atmosphere. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see. - Options: Sell deep out - of - the - money put options [46]. Stainless Steel Market Review - Stainless steel SS2509 contract fell to 12875 yuan per ton. Cold - rolled prices were 12550 - 12750 yuan per ton, and hot - rolled prices were 12300 - 12350 yuan per ton [48]. Important资讯 - The Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project is expected to drive the demand for stainless steel. A company plans to build a new stainless - steel slab continuous casting line with an annual output of 400000 tons [50]. Logic Analysis - The speculative atmosphere cools, and the demand is affected by tariffs and the off - season. The price is higher than the cost, and the market trades based on the macro - logic [50]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term return to the oscillation range. - Arbitrage: Temporarily wait and see [50]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - Industrial silicon futures opened low, rose, and then hit the limit down. Spot prices generally weakened by 100 - 200 yuan per ton [52]. Important资讯 - There are rumors that the industry will hold an anti - involution meeting on August 4 [52]. Logic Analysis - The supply is increasing, and the demand shows different trends. The price may fall in the medium - long term, but there may be a short - term rebound [54]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: May rebound in the short term, weak in the medium - long term. - Arbitrage: Reverse spread for 11, 12 contracts/positive spread for 11, 10 contracts, participate in the butterfly strategy. - Options: Hold the previous protective put options [54]. Polysilicon Market Review - Polysilicon futures hit the limit down three times and then closed at 49405 yuan per ton. Spot prices were in different ranges [56]. Important资讯 - The price of photovoltaic silicon wafers continued to rise [56]. Logic Analysis - The "anti - involution" sentiment affects the price. If the capacity - integration meeting has positive results, the long - term expectation may reverse [57]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Participate with a strategy of futures long positions + protective put options after the correction. - Arbitrage: Long polysilicon, short industrial silicon for the long - term; reverse spread for polysilicon far - month contracts [57]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The 2509 contract fell to 73120 yuan per ton, and the exchange's warehouse receipts increased to 12276 tons. Spot prices increased [59]. Important资讯 - The sales of new - energy vehicles in the world and China showed growth trends [59]. Logic Analysis - The price limit - down was affected by news. The price range is 67000 - 83560 yuan per ton, and there may be a low opening [60]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term speculative atmosphere is strong, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Arbitrage: Enterprises with long - term agreements can consider cash - and - carry arbitrage. - Options: Wait and see [60]. Tin Market Review - Shanghai tin 2509 contract fell to 267310 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees showed different changes, and the market trading was light [63]. Important资讯 - Sino - US trade talks were held on July 28. The national industrial and information work conference was held [63]. Logic Analysis - Sino - US trade talks aim to extend the trade truce. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is affected by the off - season [64]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price fluctuates with the market sentiment. - Options: Temporarily wait and see [64][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The current demand for copper is temporarily weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment momentum, but the balance will be relatively tight after August. The annual apparent demand for copper is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to long - term bullish view on Shanghai copper is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered to be established in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. There will be a slight inventory build - up in July and August. Pay attention to demand and consider inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1][2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Short - term advice is to wait and see, hold domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel to stainless steel [6]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak. With the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - environment, pay attention to the policy trend [6][7]. - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in July, but inventory build - up is still expected. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell lightly on rallies [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may have a significant impact on the supply - demand balance. The market is currently in a de - stocking stage, and the price trend depends on the resumption of production [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate has risen due to resource - end disturbances. The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the middle - link. The long - term situation depends on whether the resource - end risks are resolved [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased from 250 to 95, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1699. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The current demand is affected by the off - season and weak trans - shipment. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but medium - to long - term bullish view is maintained [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots decreased by 120, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand in August is expected to be in the off - season. There will be a slight inventory build - up in July and August [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai zinc ingots decreased by 120, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Short - term advice is to wait and see, hold domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 1500, and the inventory of LME increased by 114. Other indicators such as import profit and LME C - 3M also changed [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel to stainless steel [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil increased by 50. Other indicators such as waste stainless steel price also changed [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals are weak. With the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - environment, pay attention to the policy trend [6][7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot price premium increased by 5, and the inventory of LME decreased by 2625. Other indicators such as import profit and LME C - 3M also changed [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in July, but inventory build - up is still expected. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot import profit increased by 239.11, and the inventory of LME increased by 80. Other indicators such as LME C - 3M also changed [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell lightly on rallies [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the 421 Yunnan basis increased from - 1105 to - 165, and the 553 East China basis increased from 45 to 1035. The number of warehouse receipts increased [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of Hesheng has a significant impact on the supply - demand balance. The market is currently in a de - stocking stage, and the price trend depends on the resumption of production [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 280. Other indicators such as basis also changed [17]. - **Market Analysis**: The price has risen due to resource - end disturbances. The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the middle - link. The long - term situation depends on whether the resource - end risks are resolved [17].