策略报告 | 投资策略 自主可控的第一个逻辑是国家政策多年布局下的积累，顶层设计重视，现代 化产业体系建设要求固链、补链、延链，顶层设计对自主可控领域重视程度 高；自主可控的第二个逻辑是国产替代，即中国对美反制措施可能推升中国 对美进口商品价格，导致对美依赖度较高的商品种类出现供给缺口，国内供 给端替代供给缺口下相关板块有望看到盈利驱动下的业绩改善。 穿透到二级行业，短期可以关注估值处于低位的方向，中期关注产业节奏。 估值方面，前期估值处于低位的板块主要为军工、医药、电子。 产业趋势投资涵盖三个阶段，当前自主可控多数子板块位于阶段一的尾声。 如何能够迈向阶段二开启双击行情？先看产能周期后看业绩，即标的是否开 启大额资本开支以形成产业链的完善可以作为是否进入阶段二的判断，业绩 大面积改善可以作为阶段二拐点出现的确认。 从这个角度，我们判断自主可控各板块产业节奏：军工→信创→医药→先进 制造。 行业比较周报 证券研究报告 中美会谈下，自主可控板块的节奏与机会 核心结论：6 月 5 日，习近平主席同美国总统特朗普通电话，指出美方应实 事求是看待取得的进展，撤销对中国实施的消极举措；并欢迎特朗普再次访 华。双方经贸协 ...

Market Overview - The stock indices collectively rose this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3385.36 points, up 1.13%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10183.7 points, up 1.42% [2][4] - Total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 4.74 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai market accounting for 1.87 trillion yuan and the Shenzhen market 2.87 trillion yuan [2] ETF Fund Flows - A total of over 80 billion yuan flowed out of stock and cross-border ETFs this week, with significant outflows from the securities-related ETFs [4][5] - The major index ETFs saw a combined net outflow of 40.38 billion yuan, with the ChiNext ETF alone experiencing a net outflow of 14.6 billion yuan [4] Sector Performance - The "信创" (Xinchuang) related ETFs attracted significant inflows, with a total of over 40 billion yuan entering these funds this week [5][7] - Specific "信创" ETFs such as 562570 and 159537 saw net inflows of 18.29 billion yuan and 9.26 billion yuan, respectively [6][8] Notable ETF Transactions - Six ETFs had trading volumes exceeding 100 billion yuan this week, indicating strong investor interest [9] - The "信创" ETFs are expected to benefit from the merger of two major computing power companies, which is anticipated to enhance the industry landscape [8] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market will continue to experience structural opportunities, with a focus on sectors like innovation and technology [4][11] - The Chinese innovative drug industry is projected to enter a growth phase starting in 2025, driven by several key factors including improved policy environments and significant business development transactions [11]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a slight consolidation with a total market turnover of 1.18 trillion yuan, down from 1.32 trillion yuan the previous day [1] - High dividend and high cash flow assets showed defensive strength, with the largest bank ETF (512800) successfully closing up and achieving a four-day winning streak [1][16] - The technology sector showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext index down 0.45%, halting its three-day rise, while AI-related ETFs continued to perform well [1][21] Group 2 - The Xinchuan ETF (562030) saw a significant trading volume of over 2 billion yuan, marking a historical high, driven by the merger of Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang [3][6] - The Xinchuan ETF's weight of the two companies reached 9.47%, indicating strong investor interest in the sector [3][10] - The data industry ETF (516700) also performed well, with a weight of 8.27% for Zhongke Shuguang, reflecting the growing interest in domestic technology [10][12] Group 3 - The banking sector has shown resilience, with the bank ETF (512800) rising 0.31% on June 6, continuing its upward trend after a brief consolidation [14][16] - The banking index has outperformed the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 8.98%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 9.94 percentage points [16][18] - The banking sector is characterized by low valuations and high dividend yields, making it an attractive option for risk-averse investors [16][18] Group 4 - The financial technology ETF (159851) led the market decline, dropping 1.9%, but still attracted significant inflows, indicating investor confidence in future opportunities [21][25] - The financial technology sector has seen a cumulative increase of 7.51% over the past two weeks, outperforming major indices [23][24] - Upcoming policies and technological advancements in AI are expected to drive further growth in the financial technology sector [25][26]

Group 1 - The A-share market saw significant gains in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and coal on June 6, with active indices in water conservancy, fluorine chemicals, lithium battery anodes, and storage [1] - The recent strategic restructuring between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang has garnered high attention, with Zhongke Shuguang being a top technology incubation platform under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, investing in several quality assets [1] - Shanghai Securities noted that the merger of Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang signifies the acceleration of asset integration within the Zhongke system, aligning with national strategies to cultivate leading technology enterprises [1] Group 2 - The Xinchuan ETF is closely related to the strategic restructuring of Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang, with both companies being significant components of the index, collectively accounting for over 10% of its weight [2] - The Cloud Computing 50 ETF tracks an index with a high AI computing power content, where Zhongke Shuguang holds a weight of 4.32%, and another asset, Zhongke Xingtou, has a weight of 1.29% [2] - The Cloud Computing 50 ETF is noted for having the lowest fee rate among ETFs tracking this index [2]

Group 1 - A-shares are led by sectors such as comprehensive, communication, non-ferrous metals, and textile apparel, with active concept indices including optical modules, rare earth permanent magnets, and lithium iron phosphate batteries [1] - The cloud computing 50 ETF (516630) rose over 1%, with top-performing stocks including Xinyiseng, Zhongji Xuchuang, Runze Technology, and Kehua Data, where Xinyiseng increased by over 5% [1] - The Xinchuang ETF (562570) saw a slight increase, with leading stocks including Nasda, Foxit Software, and Kingsoft Office, reflecting strong capital inflow [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities reports that global internet cloud companies are increasing AI investments, with short-term tariff disturbances not affecting the ongoing prosperity of the global AI industry [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of computing power facilities, recommending attention to optical devices and modules, as well as satellite internet developments in commercial aerospace [1] - From a medium to long-term perspective, the three major telecom operators are operating steadily with increasing dividend ratios, highlighting the value of high dividends and suggesting long-term allocation in these operators [1] Group 3 - Xinchuang ETF (562570) is closely related to the strategic restructuring of Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang, with these companies being the largest and eighth largest weight stocks in the index, collectively accounting for over 10% [2] - The cloud computing 50 ETF (516630) tracks an index with a high AI computing power content, covering sectors such as optical modules, computing leasing (IDC), data storage, servers, and liquid cooling [2] - As of May 30, Zhongke Shuguang is the sixth largest weight stock in the cloud computing index, with a weight of 4.32%, making the cloud computing 50 ETF the largest ETF tracking this index with the lowest fee rate [2]

Core Viewpoint - In May, there was a notable shift in ETF fund flows, with major broad-based ETFs experiencing net outflows, while sector-specific ETFs, particularly in technology and innovation, attracted significant capital inflows exceeding 20 billion yuan [1][5]. Fund Flows - Major broad-based ETFs transitioned from net inflows in April to net outflows in May, while sector-specific ETFs, especially those focused on semiconductors, chips, and high-end manufacturing, saw combined inflows of over 20 billion yuan [1][5]. - The top three ETFs attracting capital in May were Huaxia Science and Technology Innovation 50 ETF (49.31 billion yuan), Guolianan Semiconductor ETF (23.64 billion yuan), and Jiashi Science and Technology Chip ETF (18.74 billion yuan) [1][5][6]. Market Performance - The A-share market index showed steady recovery in May, with certain sectors like agriculture, public utilities, media, and electricity indices rising over 2%, while the electronics index fell by 2.85% [3]. - Despite the overall weak performance of certain sectors, technology-focused ETFs experienced a counter-trend capital inflow, indicating a shift in market risk appetite from defensive sectors to technology growth [5][9]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector displayed significant internal differentiation, with notable performances in areas such as autonomous driving, AI, and robotics, driven by positive news and developments [10]. - The semiconductor index, Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Board 50 index, and semiconductor index saw declines of 2.24%, 3.50%, and 5.68% respectively from May 6 to May 30 [4]. Investment Trends - Analysts suggest that the investment focus in the technology sector will continue to revolve around AI, with expectations of significant market opportunities arising from advancements in AI applications and hardware [2][11]. - The capital inflow into technology ETFs is attributed to three main factors: concentrated policy benefits, validated industry prosperity, and attractive valuation of certain technology stocks [8][9]. Future Outlook - The investment strategy for the second half of 2025 is expected to remain centered on AI, with a focus on domestic technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [11]. - Analysts recommend monitoring sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies, such as new consumption and biopharmaceuticals, alongside technology-focused investments [11][12].

6月首个交易日（2025年6月3日），A股低开高走，大金融、医药医疗"两翼齐飞"，三大指数集体收涨，全市场成交1.16万亿元。 盘面上，银行率领大金融领涨全市场，渝农商行、兴业银行、中信银行等批量新高，A股规模最大银行ETF（512800）场内涨1.73%同样刷新历史新高！场 内顶流券商ETF（512000）、金融科技ETF（159851）均收涨。 "吃药"行情再度活跃，制药与医疗联袂拉涨，中证制药指数"五连涨"，医疗ETF（512170）场内涨1.22%站上半年线！值得关注的是，国内首只跟踪制药指 数的药ETF（认购代码：562053/上市代码：562050）正在发售中。 自主可控方向局部活跃，信创主题热度攀升，信创ETF基金（562030）量价齐升，单日成交额创近1年新高。消息面，近期板块频发重磅事件，如两大算力 龙头海光信息&中科曙光合并、EDA断供、稳定币草案通过等，值得持续跟踪关注。 | 图片来源：Wind | | --- | 6月伊始，A股喜提"开门红"，后市能否延续升势？综合机构分析来看，我国5月PMI制造业整体景气回暖，出口订单反弹，验证基本面韧性，这将为市场提 供底部支撑，因此6月市场调整或 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively declined today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.96% [1] - The total market turnover was 1.1642 trillion yuan, a decrease of 49.2 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 4,100 stocks in the market closed in the red [1] Sector Performance - The innovative drug, aquaculture, and military equipment sectors led the gains [1] - The controllable nuclear fusion and humanoid robot sectors experienced the largest declines [1] ETF Performance - The Greater Bay Area ETF (512970) led the gains with an increase of 2.26%, while the aquaculture ETF (516760) and the agricultural ETF (562900) both rose by 1.91% [2] - Other notable ETFs included the livestock ETF (159867) up 1.67% and the agricultural 50 ETF (159827) up 1.62% [2] Pig Industry News - Recent market news indicated that the pig industry will not increase the number of breeding sows and will reduce the weight of fattening pigs to 120 kg, discouraging the sale of secondary fattening pigs [2] - This news has led to a collective rise in pork stocks, which had previously been in a downturn due to falling pork prices [2] - An analyst noted that since mid-May, pork prices have broken previous fluctuation ranges, hitting year-to-date lows, primarily due to the inverted price difference affecting breeding farms and increased supply [2] Declining ETFs - The Xinchuang ETF (159537) led the declines with a drop of 5.19%, followed by the Hang Seng Internet ETF (159688) down 2.77% and the China Concept Internet ETF (159607) down 2.75% [3][4]

Group 1: Consumption Trends - Consumption has led the market since April and year-to-date, with personal care products, animal health, feed, snacks, and cosmetics showing the highest gains[1] - Recommended consumption sectors include apparel, automobiles (including two-wheeled electric vehicles), retail, food, beauty care, aquaculture, feed, and snacks since the Spring Strategy Outlook on February 12[1] Group 2: Fiscal Impact on Consumption - Retail sales growth is highly elastic to fiscal spending cycles, with elasticity increasing during fiscal expansion periods[2] - The expected fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is around 4%, up from approximately 3% in 2024, indicating a significant increase in central government spending[21] - Local government debt pressures have historically suppressed consumption, but debt relief efforts are expected to drive internal recovery in consumption, particularly in high-debt provinces[2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests focusing on domestic consumption sectors, technology growth, cost improvement drivers, and structural opportunities abroad[32] - Recommended sectors include domestic consumption (apparel, automobiles, retail, food, beauty care), technology (AI, robotics, semiconductors), and cost-driven sectors (aquaculture, energy metals)[32]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced overall fluctuations today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% to 3387.57 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.83%. The Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index fell by 0.27% [1] - The trading volume in both markets was approximately 11,734.78 billion yuan, an increase of about 37.75 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The market sentiment appears to be weak in the short term, with more stocks declining than rising, as nearly 3,400 stocks fell across the two markets [1] Coal Industry Analysis - The coal sector has seen a significant decline this year, with the main reasons being deteriorating fundamentals leading to a double hit on earnings and valuations. The main business revenue of the coal index component stocks dropped by 18.45%, and net profit fell by 28% [3] - The coal price, a key variable for coal company profitability, has decreased significantly, with thermal coal prices dropping from 830 yuan/ton to around 610 yuan/ton, a decline of 26.5%, and coking coal prices down by 24.9% [3] - Despite the increase in dividend yield from 5.79% to 6.29%, the overall sentiment remains pessimistic regarding future growth, as high dividends often indicate a lack of growth expectations [3] Gold Market Insights - Tensions in the Middle East have led to a rebound in gold prices, with gold stock ETFs and gold fund ETFs rising by 4.15% and 3.19%, respectively [4][5] - The increase in gold prices is supported by rising demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical uncertainties and changes in tariff policies that have exacerbated inflation risks in the U.S. economy [5] - China's central bank has continued to increase its gold reserves, with the latest data showing a rise to 73.77 million ounces, marking the sixth consecutive month of increases [5] Future Outlook - The coal industry is showing signs of demand recovery, but profitability remains under pressure due to ongoing price declines. Short-term gains do not yet indicate a definitive upward trend [7] - Investors are advised to maintain a cautious stance and monitor any signs of stabilization in coal prices to identify potential investment opportunities in coal ETFs [7]