2025 年 7 月 12 日 总量研究 二级市场价格明显回调，市场交投热情环比减少 ——REITs 周度观察（20250707-20250711） 要点 1、 二级市场 2025 年 7 月 7 日-2025 年 7 月 11 日（以下简称"本周"），我国已上市公募 REITs 二级市场价格整体回调：加权 REITs 指数收于 142.35，本周回报率为 -1.26%。与其他主流大类资产相比，回报率由高至低排序分别为：可转债>A 股> 原油>黄金>美股>纯债>REITs。 从项目属性来看，本周产权类和特许经营权类 REITs 的二级市场价格走势均呈现 下行趋势，其中，特许经营权类 REITs 的跌幅较小。 从底层资产类型来看，本周能源类 REITs 跌幅最小。本周回报率排名前三的底层 资产类型分别为能源类、生态环保类和仓储物流类。 从单只 REIT 层面来看，本周公募 REITs 涨跌互现，有 8 只 REITs 上涨，有 60 只REITs下跌。涨跌幅方面，涨幅排名前三的分别是嘉实京东仓储基础设施REIT、 中金中国绿发商业 REIT 和南方顺丰物流 REIT。 成交规模及换手率：本周公募 REITs 成 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券月报】 长久期信用债后续如何参与，何时止盈？ ——7 月信用债策略月报 5 月下旬以来信用债挖票息行情向长端演绎，长久期信用债净买入规模明显放 量，市场参与热情较高。去年资产荒行情极致演绎下长久期信用债在同期时点 也走出了独立行情，但去年 8 月后债市波动较大，长久期信用债流动性不足的 风险暴露，估值出现明显调整。今年机构参与长端品种相对谨慎、关注止盈时 点，近期股债翘板效应扰动债市，后续长久期信用债如何参与？ 长久期信用债行情演绎期间机构参与情况如何？ 机构净买入力量是影响长久期信用债行情演绎的重要因素。1）5-7y 中票：去 年长久期信用债行情演绎阶段机构净买入量较前期涨幅较小，但部分时点规模 相对较高，进一步推动了其利差收窄。今年 5 月下旬以来净买入量明显增长， 机构行为对该期限区间的行情驱动较去年或有增强。2）7-10y 中票：基金净买 入力量的波动是影响利差变化的重要因素，两轮长久期信用债行情中基金连续 大规模净买入的同时信用利差也出现快速收窄，而在去年 8 月中下旬基金转 为大规模净卖出，利差开始出现快速大幅走阔。3）10y 以上中票：今年基金参 与力量有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the "China Overseas · Qingyun Residence" project by Liaoning China Overseas marks a significant development in the Shenyang real estate market, indicating that new projects are set to enter the market soon [1][5]. Group 1: Project Announcement and Location - Liaoning China Overseas officially announced the project name "China Overseas · Qingyun Residence" on July 11, signaling the imminent launch of new products in the market [1]. - The project is located in the core area of the New Municipal Government District, specifically at the southern part of Gaoshendong Road-2, within walking distance of key amenities such as Tianjie Shopping Mall and Metro Line 2 [3]. Group 2: Market Impact and Expectations - The continuous expansion of brand real estate developers in the New Municipal Government District is expected to enhance the development landscape of the area [5]. - The project is anticipated to attract significant attention from homebuyers, with expectations that it could become a standout offering in the 2025 real estate market in Hunnan [5]. - Previous projects by China Overseas, such as the adjacent China Overseas Xiyue, have generated considerable market interest and sales success, setting high expectations for the new project [5]. Group 3: Product Innovation and Market Positioning - The "good housing" concept is becoming a key focus for the Shenyang real estate market in 2025, with the "China Overseas · Qingyun Residence" expected to embody innovative residential products [7]. - The project aims to establish a new quality benchmark in the New Municipal Government District, reinforcing the brand's position in the market [7]. - As the project develops, it is expected to contribute positively to the vision of Shenyang as an "administrative and cultural new center" [7].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing increased activity, with a total of over 340 policy measures introduced across various regions in the first half of the year to support market stability and growth [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes nationwide has increased year-on-year [1] - Major first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are witnessing a rise in new home market activity [1] Group 2: Policy Measures - Over 340 measures have been implemented in the first half of the year, focusing on optimizing housing fund policies, providing home purchase subsidies, and adjusting land supply [1] - The policies aim to enhance market stability and encourage home buying [1]

Group 1: Trade Policies - The U.S. President Trump announced new tariffs on 23 countries, ranging from 20% to 50%, effective August 1 [2] - The tariffs include a 50% tax on all copper imports to the U.S. [2] - The trade negotiations have progressed slowly, with only agreements reached with the UK and Vietnam, while talks with the EU, Japan, and others remain challenging [3] Group 2: Insurance Sector - The Ministry of Finance has introduced a new mechanism for long-term assessments of state-owned insurance companies, focusing on key indicators like net asset return and capital preservation [4] - The assessment method has been adjusted to include longer-term metrics, which is expected to encourage a focus on long-term returns and reduce short-term volatility impacts [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, reversing the previous month's decline, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year-on-year [5] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7%, marking a 14-month high, indicating strengthening domestic demand [5] Group 4: Employment Policies - The State Council has issued a notice with 19 measures to stabilize employment, including increased support for small and medium enterprises and enhanced training programs [7] - The measures aim to address structural employment issues and provide financial incentives for companies hiring unemployed youth [7] Group 5: Pension Adjustments - The basic pension for retirees will be increased by 2% starting January 1, 2025, with a focus on supporting lower-income retirees [8] - This adjustment reflects the government's commitment to improving living standards amid economic uncertainties [8] Group 6: Stock Market Developments - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3500-point mark, driven by strong performance in the banking sector [9] - The rise in stock indices is attributed to expectations of policy easing and significant movements in financial stocks [9] Group 7: Real Estate Market - Real estate stocks have surged following government emphasis on localized policy implementation to enhance market stability [10][11] - The government is focusing on new urbanization and housing supply for migrant populations, indicating potential growth in the real estate sector [11] Group 8: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia's market capitalization has exceeded $4 trillion, making it the first company to reach this milestone [12] - The surge in Nvidia's stock price is linked to optimistic expectations regarding its leadership in the AI sector and increasing demand for AI chips [12]

李昆告诉经济观察报，他就住在该小区，对底商的出租情况十分了解，这里租户稳定，空置率极 低。他买下的这套底商，按照当前的租金水平粗略估算，年化租金收益率在4%左右。 在北京、上海等一二线城市，部分像李昆这样有闲置资金的个人或机构开始在二手房市场寻找投资 机会。他们不再单纯以城市或区域作为投资依据，而是以租户稳定性、租金收益率及所处生活圈等 作为投资考量维度。 抄底 在北京、上海等一二线城市，部分像李昆这样有闲置资金的个 人或机构开始在二手房市场寻找投资机会。他们不再单纯以城 市或区域作为投资依据，而是以租户稳定性、租金收益率及所 处生活圈等作为投资考量维度。 作者： 田国宝 封图：图虫创意 7月上旬，李昆以500万元的总价在北京市海淀区购入某小区一套底商物业，单价约7万元/平方 米。李昆介绍，该小区住宅均价约为9万元/平方米，底商生意良好，换手率低。此次业主因急需 资金而出售，吸引了七八位意向买家。 李昆是一家建材销售公司的负责人，近年建材生意逐渐转淡，他开始寻找新的投资机会。此前，他 曾投资一家饭店，但因缺乏经营经验，以失败告终。此后，他将目光转向相对熟悉的房地产领域。 李昆购买的底商最初报价符合市场行情，但 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the strategic asset liquidation by Li Ka-shing, a prominent businessman, as part of a broader global asset reallocation strategy [2][5][10] Group 1: Business Strategy - Li Ka-shing's business philosophy is centered around the cold balance of risk and profit, exemplified by his rapid divestments in response to market conditions, such as selling American ports to avoid trade war risks and liquidating European assets during the pandemic [2] - The sale of the "Yucui Garden" properties at a significant discount reflects a calculated move to quickly generate cash flow, with the properties sold at 76,000 yuan per square meter, a reduction of nearly 20,000 yuan from the original price [1][5] - Li's family wealth management strategy includes placing core equity in a trust fund to prevent fragmentation during inheritance, while his sons manage different aspects of the family business [2] Group 2: Market Impact - The rapid sale of "Yucui Garden" triggered a chain reaction in the real estate market, leading to a significant price drop in similar properties and causing other luxury projects in the area to halt sales for reevaluation [8][10] - The article notes a 43% decline in commercial real estate transaction volume in the Asia-Pacific region in Q1 2025, indicating a broader market retreat as major investment firms withdraw from the Chinese market [8][10] - Li's actions serve as a warning signal regarding market liquidity, suggesting that when major investors hoard cash, high-leverage assets become increasingly risky [10] Group 3: Financial Performance - The land for the "Yucui Garden" project was acquired in 2001 at a cost of 1,750 yuan per square meter, resulting in a profit margin exceeding 40 times even at the discounted sale price [6] - Li Ka-shing's historical strategy of selling assets at significant discounts has resulted in over 350 billion yuan in cash generation over 23 years, demonstrating a consistent approach to maximizing returns without holding out for the last penny [6]

当前市场呈现三重特征：其一，核心区资产韧性增强，如南山区科技园片区曾在5月创下5.7%的涨幅记录； 其二，外围区域分化加剧，龙岗中心城与平湖部分楼盘逆势上涨超18%，而同类区域不乏跌幅超6%的案 例；其三，改善需求持续释放，120㎡以上户型成交占比提升的趋势，正在重塑部分片区的价格体系。 对于买卖双方而言，这或是新一轮价值发现的起点。随着"金九银十"传统旺季临近，政策窗口期的博弈将更 趋复杂。 政策环境持续影响市场预期 7月的深圳楼市正上演"冰与火之歌"。截至7月7日，全市有效二手房源突破7.5万套大关，两周内激增3000余 套，龙岗、宝安、福田三区贡献了超60%的新增供应。这种放量并非偶然——上半年深圳二手房成交量同比 大增30.7%的市场惯性，正推动更多业主选择此时入市套现。 价格博弈进入深水区 尽管71.8%的监测片区均价仍在下跌，但微观数据已显露积极信号：下跌楼盘占比收窄至51.9%，上涨楼盘 比例提升至36.2%。 这种分化在区域间尤为明显：龙岗区以7个楼盘跻身涨幅榜TOP20，成为最大赢家；而宝安西乡的双龙花园 更以19%的涨幅领跑全市，其4.8万元/㎡的报价凸显出"洼地补涨"逻辑。值得注意的是， ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the trend of individual and institutional investors, like Li Kun, seeking investment opportunities in the second-hand real estate market, particularly in commercial properties, due to stable rental yields and low vacancy rates [1][2][4] Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly focusing on the stability of tenants, rental yields, and the surrounding living environment rather than just the city or region for investment decisions [1][2] - In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, some investors are engaging in competitive bidding for quality commercial properties, leading to significant price premiums [2][4] Market Dynamics - The article highlights a shift in investment logic due to real estate market adjustments, with many institutions selling quality assets at prices significantly lower than their purchase prices from 2019 [4][5] - The current market is characterized as a buyer's market overall, but high-quality projects remain competitive, creating a seller's market for those assets [5] Rental Yield Analysis - The rental yield for the commercial properties discussed ranges from approximately 2.5% to over 8%, depending on the specific property and market conditions [2][3][4] - Investors are particularly interested in properties with rental yields exceeding 3%, indicating potential bottom-fishing opportunities [5] Investment Criteria - Investors, both individuals and institutions, are establishing systematic investment standards, focusing on core urban areas and the economic conditions of those regions [6][7] - The article emphasizes the importance of assessing rental yields and potential appreciation when evaluating investment properties, with a noted preference for commercial over residential investments due to stability concerns [6][7]

Core Insights - The Shanghai office market in the first half of 2025 is characterized by insufficient new demand and rising vacancy rates, with an overall vacancy rate reaching 22.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from the end of last year [1][5] - The market remains cautious, with continued downward pressure on rents driving cost-sensitive relocations, as tenants seek more favorable lease terms [1][2] Market Overview - In Q2 2025, the Shanghai office market recorded a net absorption of approximately 57,300 square meters, with non-CBD areas showing a net absorption of about 74,200 square meters, primarily driven by state-owned enterprises and third-party office operators [2][5] - The overall vacancy rate in the market increased by 1.2 percentage points to 24.6%, with the CBD vacancy rate rising to 16.9% [2][3] Rental Trends - Rental rates for Grade A office buildings continued to decline, with CBD rents decreasing by 2.4% to 6.9 RMB/sqm/day and non-CBD rents down by 2.7% to 4.5 RMB/sqm/day [3][6] - Landlords are maintaining flexible negotiation terms to stabilize occupancy rates and attract new tenants, often agreeing to lease restructuring under extended lease conditions [3][6] Investment Activity - In Q2 2025, the Shanghai commercial real estate market recorded 23 asset transactions totaling 8.2 billion RMB, with office assets accounting for 38% of the total transaction value [6][7] - The average transaction value for individual projects decreased to 360 million RMB, with 61% of transactions occurring in the 100 million to 300 million RMB range, indicating increased liquidity in smaller assets [6][7] Sector Demand - The financial sector led the market with a 22% share, driven by funds and non-bank financial institutions, followed by consumer goods manufacturing at 17% and TMT at 16% [5][7] - Despite challenges, the market showed signs of activity, with a 126.1% increase in net absorption compared to the previous period, indicating a potential recovery in the high-end manufacturing, TMT, and financial sectors [5][7] Future Outlook - An estimated 770,000 square meters of new supply is expected in the next six months, which may increase market competition but also enhance liquidity and rental transaction activity [5][7] - The focus on core assets and emerging sectors is expected to continue, with investors showing interest in properties with stable cash flows and growth potential [7]