Core Insights - China's industrial economy is undergoing a historic transition from scale expansion to a focus on new quality productivity, driven by technological innovation and strategic upgrades [1][3][7] Group 1: Industrial Resilience and Transformation - The complete industrial system, large-scale market, and the courage of various business entities are fostering a fertile ground for the growth of China's industrial economy [1] - The automotive industry is a prime example of this transformation, with expected annual sales exceeding 34 million vehicles, including 16 million electric vehicles and over 6.8 million exports [2] - China's advanced manufacturing, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, is characterized by a strong market share in power batteries exceeding 60%, with companies like CATL and BYD leading globally [2] Group 2: Technological Innovation and Economic Strategy - China is at a critical juncture where technological innovation is essential for developing new quality productivity and restructuring resilient industrial chains [3] - The export growth of new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products demonstrates the resilience of China's economy in the face of external trade challenges [3] - The integration of digital and intelligent technologies is crucial for traditional manufacturing to transition into smart manufacturing, as evidenced by successful projects in cities like Bengbu [4] Group 3: Policy and Capital Support - A comprehensive industrial innovation support system is being constructed, emphasizing the need for strong internal support and effective policy alignment [6][7] - Recent policies aim to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, promoting a virtuous cycle of consumption and industrial upgrading [6] - Government investment funds are evolving from mere capital amplifiers to core engines driving industrial ecosystem development and upgrades [6] Group 4: Global Engagement and Investment - International investments in China, such as the establishment of major production bases by companies like Danfoss and Medtronic, reflect global confidence in China's industrial capabilities [5] - The ongoing development of AI technologies by Chinese firms is reshaping global perceptions and creating new opportunities in the tech sector [5]

Economic Performance - November industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5% and the previous month's 4.9%[1] - The industrial export delivery value showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, a significant improvement from the previous month's -2.1%[1] - The service sector production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] Retail and Consumption - Retail sales in November increased by 1.3% year-on-year, down from 2.9% in the previous month[3] - The contribution of national subsidies to retail sales declined by approximately 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Restaurant revenue growth slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the third quarter average of 1.4%[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, a decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - Manufacturing investment maintained positive growth, while real estate investment fell to -15.9% year-on-year[4] - In November, fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year decline of 12.0%, stabilizing close to the previous month's -12.2%[4] Real Estate Market - November real estate sales area and sales value decreased by 25.1% and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, with sales area showing a month-on-month increase of 9.3%[5] - New home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with first-tier cities leading the decline at -1.1%[5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weighted year-on-year growth of industrial and service production indicators was 4.4%, while the demand side showed a decline of 3.8%[6] - The gap between production and demand growth rates is the largest since March 2020, indicating increasing supply-demand imbalances[7]

消息面上，12月13日，2025—2026中国经济年会在中国国际经济交流中心举办，中央财办分管日常 工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀在会上表示，2025年我国主要经济指标表现好于预期，经济总量预 计达到140万亿元左右。2026年将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策，要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策集 成效应，推动经济稳中向好。 中国银河证券表示，12月中央经济工作会议召开，为明年经济工作指明了初步方向，A股投资重点 关注以下领域：（1） 科技创新主题 ：作为"十五五"开局之年，顺应国家战略、具备真实技术壁垒的科 技企业将是A股投资的重要主线。（2） "反内卷"主题 ：深入整治"内卷式"竞争，政策效果将持续体 现，以促进行业业绩改善，提升相关板块中长期投资价值。（3） 大消费主题 ：大消费板块目前估值处 于历史中低水平，政策利好有望促进业绩与估值双击。（4） 金融板块 ：金融机构将加力支持扩大内 需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。（5） 地产链 ：随着地产政策加快落地，止跌企稳预期有望得 到强化，给投资者信心提供支撑。（6） 出海主题 ：对外开放政策支持下，出海趋势将带动企业盈利空 间进一步打开。 把握A股机遇，或可 ...

- The report indicates that the market is on the edge of an upward trend signal, with the core observation indicator being whether the profitability effect is positive. The current trend line of the WIND All A Index is around 6262 points, and the closing price is at 6264 points, just on the verge of turning positive[2][5][7] - The timing system signal shows that the distance between the moving averages is 4.03%, significantly greater than the absolute value of 3%, indicating that the market has returned to an upward trend pattern[2][5][6] - The industry trend allocation model shows that the mid-term distress reversal expectation model signals attention to liquor and real estate; the TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on consumer electronics and domestic computing power. The industry trend model shows that the engineering machinery/industrial metals/energy storage sectors continue their upward trend[2][5][7] - From the valuation indicators, the PE of the WIND All A Index is around the 80th percentile, which is a medium level, and the PB is around the 50th percentile, which is a relatively low level. Based on the short-term trend judgment and the position management model, it is recommended that absolute return products with the WIND All A as the main stock allocation should have a position of 60%[5][7][12]

Consumption - Overall commodity consumption is weak, with automotive sales declining and high-end liquor prices continuing to fall[1] - Seasonal recovery in textile and apparel demand is insufficient compared to the same period last year[1] - Service consumption shows stable population movement, with Shanghai's amusement consumption performing well in the off-season[1] Investment - Investment remains weak, with infrastructure construction slowing down and new home transactions marginally declining[1] - The area of new homes sold in 30 cities continues to decrease, with a slight narrowing of the year-on-year decline[14] - The proportion of second-hand home transactions has increased to 65.94%[14] Production - Production is expected to improve mainly due to year-end rush work, with coal inventory at ports continuing seasonal replenishment[1] - The operating rate of asphalt has slightly decreased to 27.8%, remaining at historical lows[14] - The operating rate of carbonates has increased, but remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year[23] Trade - The number of ships departing from ports has shown seasonal recovery, with domestic and international freight rates continuing to diverge due to demand differences[1] - Export value has increased, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.3%[20] Prices - Industrial product prices have declined, with the PPI dropping by 0.97%[33] - CPI growth rate has decreased by 0.02 percentage points, with significant price increases in food and healthcare services[33] Liquidity - The US dollar index has fallen by 58 basis points to 98.4, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts[36] - The central bank's net currency injection was 4.7 billion yuan in the week of December 13[36]

悄悄在放量，这就让我想起2019年那波科技股启动前的行情——往往市场情绪最低迷的时候，资金已经 在悄悄布局有逻辑支撑的赛道了。果不其然，午后半导体板块震荡拉升，晶丰明源直接20cm涨停，贵 金属更是全天活跃，招金黄金涨超8%领涨，三大指数也跟着集体收红，上涨个股超2600只，情绪明显 回暖了。 各位老铁，今天市场这波探底回升是不是让不少人悬着的心放下来了？帮主郑重陪大家盯了20年盘面， 这种先抑后扬的走势，其实藏着资金的真实意图，可不是随便反弹那么简单。 早上开盘的时候，零售、地产板块直接杀跌，好几只股封了跌停，评论区里好多朋友都在问"要不要割 肉"。说实话，当时我也在盯盘，看着指数往下探，但手里的自选股里，可控核聚变、贵金属的标的却 可能有朋友会问，这波反弹能不能持续？帮主郑重明确说，下周市场大概率会延续震荡回暖的态势，但 不会是普涨行情，板块轮动还会比较快。沪指在3850点附近有较强支撑，创指突破3200点后可能会有小 幅回调，但整体向上的趋势没改。核心逻辑很简单：一方面，国内政策面持续宽松，对新兴产业的支持 力度没减，可控核聚变、半导体这些赛道有长期政策红利；另一方面，全球流动性宽松预期升温，贵金 属作 ...

Market Performance - The stock indices showed strong gains in the afternoon, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 1% and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by nearly 2% [1] - By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41% to 3889.35 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.84%, the ChiNext Index was up by 0.97%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index gained 1.74% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching 21,193 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as retail, real estate, banking, and pharmaceuticals experienced declines, while the semiconductor sector saw a rally in the afternoon [1] - Insurance, electricity, and brokerage sectors showed upward movement, with active participation in nuclear power, ultra-high voltage, and commercial aerospace concepts [1] Investment Outlook - According to Xiangcai Securities, the market is expected to maintain a state of oscillation and recovery in the context of relatively eased China-US trade relations after previous adjustments [1] - Recommendations include focusing on dividend sectors related to long-term capital entry, traditional sectors related to "anti-involution," and consumer areas supported by policy for domestic demand [1] - Looking ahead, 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," which will drive the development of new productive forces in technology and environmental protection, with the recent Central Economic Work Conference affirming a positive policy tone for 2026, laying a solid foundation for a continued "slow bull" market in A-shares [1]

每日晨报│2025 年 12 月 12 日 | -主要市场指数表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | 上个交易日升 | YTD 升跌 | | 恒生指数 | 25,530 | -0.04% | +27.27% | | 恒生科技指数 | 5,534 | -0.83% | +23.87% | | 国企指数 | 8,934 | -0.23% | +22.56% | | 沪深 300 | 4,552 | -0.86% | +15.69% | | 上证综合指数 | 3,873 | -0.70% | +15.56% | | 深证成份指数 | 13,147 | -1.27% | +26.24% | | 中小板指 | 7,947 | -1.04% | +24.52% | | 道琼斯指数 | 48,704 | +1.34% | +14.48% | | 标普 500 指数 | 6,901 | +0.21% | +17.33% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23,593 | -0.25% | +22.18% | | 伦敦富时指数 | 9,703 | +0.49% | +18.72% ...

水皮杂谈 一家之言 兼听则明 偏听则暗 功败垂成 盘面消息 今天 摩尔线程再度暴涨，收盘报 941.08 元 /股 ，创全天最高价，涨幅达 28.04%，总市 值已升至 4423 亿元。相较于上市后556 元 /股 的最低价，当前股价近乎翻倍；若对比 114 元 /股 的发行价，涨幅更为惊人。 作为仍处于亏损状态的个股，摩尔线程为何能遭到爆炒？核心原因有三： 其一， 2025 年科技股炒作中涌现 "市标率" 新概念。所谓 " 市标率 " ，是将国内相关科技 股与美国同类标的对标，核心并非比较估值，而是 比较市值 ， 所以出现了 "市标率" 这一概 念 。 既然寒武纪可与英伟达对标， 为什么 摩尔线程与寒武纪 不能做对比呢？所以，这实际 是 "市标率" 在国内同类股票之中的一个应用。 今天 寒武纪下跌 2.73%，收盘价 1382 元 /股 ，市值 5828 亿元，摩尔线程与寒武纪的市 值差距并非遥不可及，甚至存在超越可能。 其二，国产 GPU "四小龙" 相关标的上市进程持续推进。其中，沐曦股份预计下周上市，有 望吸引炒新资金聚焦；后续还有燧原科技、璧仞科技等公司排队上市，意味着相关概念题材的 炒作尚未进入尾 ...

炒股，最忌的事，是着急！无法耐心等待，总是毛毛躁躁，哪哪都是机会，哪哪都可以上车。这是大多数参与者的通病，只有抛弃这种思维，才能活下去。 很多人觉得炒股难，其实不是的，是他们太贪心了，本来好好赚钱的，他非要搞成了亏钱。 今天大A再度向下，其实早在周二证券冲高回落，我就提醒大家了。上周五是保险领涨，本周一是证券领涨。 都是利好推动，小利好，大效应。背后是主力在硬撑，但无效。 我将继续等待，直到真正合适的机会出现，再动手。很多人都已经失去了耐心，但我很轻松，根本不着急。 第二：地产下跌，来得太快 昨天有传闻金融机构将给地产龙头纾困，同时各地可能会做房贷贴息，共同推动了地产的反攻。 而这也是昨天反攻的原因，我内心很平衡，长期来看，地产就是个笑话，我以自己在广东各地买了几套房的经验，亏了几百万，明白指出这一点，我们走着 瞧。 第三：白酒也不行 今天看历史，发现过去的VCD、家电、冰箱，也走过这样的路。现在的白酒、地产，未来的整车，只不过是过去的一次重演而已。 没想到中国企业界，这么多年，就是没有摆脱这种问题。呸！ 这样的心态，才稳，才能做得久。 板块上： 第一：银行强硬护盘 只能说强硬护盘了，如果稍微向下，今天的指数 ...