Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 347 points or 1.4%, ending at 25,176, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.7% to 5,490 [3][4] - The total trading volume for the day was 319.65 billion [3] - Northbound capital inflow was 11.71 billion [3] Group 2: Company Performance - HSBC Holdings reported a 27% decline in pre-tax profit, with its stock price dropping 3.8% to 96.95 [4] - Hang Seng Bank's mid-term profit decreased by 30%, leading to a 7.4% drop in its stock price to 113.8 [4] - Prada's mid-term profit increased by 0.6% to 386 million euros, with revenue rising by 7.51% to 2.74 billion euros [12] - CATL's mid-term profit rose by 33% to 30.51 billion yuan, with revenue increasing by 7.27% to 178.89 billion yuan [14] - Sinopec Oilfield Services won a pipeline project worth approximately 3.597 billion yuan, representing 4.44% of its projected 2024 revenue [15] Group 3: Regulatory and Economic Developments - The Hong Kong government released a report highlighting the advantages of its business environment, emphasizing its role in attracting global investment [7] - The Hong Kong Financial Development Bureau welcomed the government's report, underscoring Hong Kong's unique position as a leading international financial center [8] - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association announced new regulations to curb pricing distortions in bond underwriting, effective from August 11 [9] - The Chinese government plans to allocate approximately 90 billion yuan for childcare subsidies, with applications opening in late August [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key stocks in the financial and manufacturing sectors, including Beike-W, China Resources Land, New China Life Insurance, Qilu Bank, Sungrow Power Supply, and others [54]. Core Insights - The report highlights the investment outlook for the financial and manufacturing industries, emphasizing the recovery of corporate earnings and the potential for stock price appreciation in the context of macroeconomic conditions and policy expectations [5][10][11]. Financial Sector Summary - The financial sector is expected to see a continuation of performance recovery in Q2, with a focus on high-elasticity stocks. The insurance sector is projected to benefit from improved new business value and investment returns [20][21]. - Qilu Bank is noted for its strong growth in credit market share and improving asset quality, with a projected net profit growth of 16.5% in the first half of 2025 [22][26]. Real Estate Sector Summary - The real estate sector is anticipated to experience a rebound due to policy easing and potential for price recovery. Key companies like Beike-W and China Resources Land are highlighted for their strong fundamentals and growth potential [11][12][19]. Manufacturing Sector Summary - The manufacturing sector, particularly in machinery and electrical new energy, is expected to benefit from global competitiveness and accelerated overseas expansion. Companies like Haitian International are positioned to gain from increased export demand [27][35]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new technologies and market trends in the electrical new energy sector, with a focus on storage and solar energy [27][29]. Environmental Sector Summary - The environmental sector, particularly waste incineration and water services, is highlighted for its long-term investment value, with companies like Hanlan Environment and Beijing Water Group recommended for their stable cash flow and growth potential [46][50].

Industry Overview Upstream - Non-metallic: Glass prices continue to rebound [3] - Non-ferrous metals: Prices fluctuate [3] Midstream - Chemical industry: The operating rate of PX has declined [3] Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in third-tier cities have seasonally declined [4] - Services: The number of domestic flights during the summer vacation has increased [4] Meso-level Event Overview Production Industry - Sino-US talks have postponed trade conflicts. From July 28th to 29th, the Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held talks in Stockholm, Sweden. According to the consensus, the suspension of the 24% US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures will be extended for 90 days [1] - NVIDIA co-founder and CEO Huang Renxun believes that the wealth creation ability of artificial intelligence (AI) will exceed that of the Internet in the next 5 years [1] Service Industry - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for the global economic growth rate for this year and next year to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively. It has also significantly raised China's economic growth rate for this year to 4.8% [2] Industry Credit Spread Tracking | Industry | Last Year | Quarterly | One Month Ago | Last Week | This Week | Quantile | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting | 85.59 | 77.83 | 57.09 | 47.35 | 49.07 | 0.70 | | Mining | 33.06 | 46.36 | 37.35 | 27.48 | 31.05 | 2.00 | | Chemicals | 68.16 | 62.06 | 49.18 | 42.09 | 44.87 | 1.00 | | Steel | 37.13 | 55.10 | 47.48 | 37.99 | 41.94 | 6.50 | | Non-ferrous Metals | 39.26 | 56.54 | 49.42 | 40.23 | 42.58 | 5.30 | | Electronics | 52.58 | 70.94 | 54.62 | 43.31 | 42.35 | 0.00 | | Automobiles | 57.44 | 50.32 | 39.92 | 29.66 | 34.14 | 1.20 | | Household Appliances | 36.95 | 47.58 | 47.10 | 39.12 | 43.09 | 8.10 | | Food and Beverage | 36.18 | 45.25 | 37.12 | 28.44 | 30.25 | 0.50 | | Textile and Apparel | 44.99 | 53.41 | 52.65 | 39.28 | 42.30 | 1.20 | | Light Industry Manufacturing | 47.59 | 167.09 | 146.32 | 132.29 | 133.75 | 7.70 | | Medicine and Biology | 52.07 | 71.30 | 53.47 | 43.92 | 46.74 | 0.90 | | Public Utilities | 25.15 | 33.57 | 27.41 | 20.28 | 23.82 | 2.80 | | Transportation | 26.46 | 36.88 | 30.25 | 23.79 | 26.92 | 4.50 | | Real Estate | 207.49 | 126.20 | 100.80 | 86.02 | 88.85 | 0.70 | | Commercial Trade | 39.88 | 50.24 | 42.17 | 32.90 | 36.79 | 1.50 | | Leisure Services | 73.88 | 119.48 | 118.95 | 105.46 | 105.42 | 85.50 | | Banks | 23.36 | 19.80 | 18.64 | 13.86 | 16.79 | 4.10 | | Non-bank Finance | 25.43 | 34.18 | 30.08 | 23.84 | 26.46 | 5.10 | | Comprehensive | 69.95 | 49.74 | 41.37 | 32.62 | 36.37 | 1.70 | | Building Materials | 33.33 | 46.19 | 37.31 | 24.78 | 28.14 | 0.70 | | Building Decoration | 37.97 | 54.48 | 51.32 | 42.89 | 46.49 | 9.90 | | Electrical Equipment | 53.97 | 79.25 | 72.51 | 66.34 | 69.49 | 29.00 | | Machinery and Equipment | 28.21 | 44.64 | 44.40 | 36.28 | 40.18 | 15.10 | | Computers | 66.65 | 61.96 | 46.60 | 33.72 | 36.84 | 1.00 | | Media | 240.02 | 45.79 | 37.92 | 29.70 | 34.29 | 1.30 | | Communications | 27.80 | 29.18 | 29.10 | 24.15 | 27.79 | 6.60 | [48] Key Industry Price Index Tracking | Industry Name | Index Name | Frequency | Unit | Update Time | Value | YoY | 5-Day Trend | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Agriculture | Corn Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 2332.9 | -0.24% | - | | | Egg Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/29 | 6.8 | 3.03% | - | | | Palm Oil Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 9032.0 | 0.42% | - | | | Cotton Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 15557.5 | 0.05% | - | | | Average Wholesale Price of Pork | Daily | Yuan/kg | 7/29 | 20.5 | -1.16% | - | | Non-ferrous Metals | Copper Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 79043.3 | -0.91% | - | | | Zinc Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 22562.0 | -0.91% | - | | | Aluminum Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 20676.7 | -1.30% | - | | | Nickel Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 122683.3 | -1.39% | - | | | Lead Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 16850.0 | 0.26% | - | | | Rebar Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 3371.0 | 2.24% | - | | Ferrous Metals | Iron Ore Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 789.7 | -1.15% | - | | | Wire Rod Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 3555.0 | 1.64% | - | | | Glass Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/square meter | 7/29 | 16.1 | 8.81% | - | | Non-metals | Natural Rubber Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 15066.7 | -0.28% | - | | | China Plastic City Price Index | Daily | - | 7/29 | 812.3 | -0.29% | - | | | WTI Crude Oil Spot Price | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/29 | 66.7 | 1.15% | - | | Energy | Brent Crude Oil Spot Price | Daily | US dollars/barrel | 7/29 | 70.0 | 1.20% | - | | | Liquefied Natural Gas Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 4152.0 | -1.14% | - | | | Coal Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 768.0 | 1.59% | - | | | PTA Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 4863.3 | 0.96% | - | | Chemicals | Polyethylene Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 7453.3 | 0.88% | - | | | Urea Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 1817.5 | -0.95% | - | | | Soda Ash Spot Price | Daily | Yuan/ton | 7/29 | 1315.0 | 5.20% | - | | | National Cement Price Index | Daily | - | 7/29 | 130.1 | -0.53% | - | | Real Estate | Building Materials Comprehensive Index | Daily | Points | 7/29 | 117.6 | 0.72% | - | | | National Concrete Price Index | Daily | Points | 7/29 | 94.1 | -0.82% | - | [49]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs' strategy team emphasizes the importance of focusing on areas outside the US stock market, as the offshore Chinese market has broken through a year-long consolidation and reached a four-year high, driven by easing geopolitical concerns and the deepening of "anti-involution" policies [1][2] Market Breakthrough - The offshore Chinese market has reached a critical turning point, with the MSCI China Index hitting a four-year high and the CSI 300 Index also reaching a new annual peak; since the beginning of 2025, the MSCI China Index has accumulated a 25% increase, marking the second-best performance for the first seven months since 2010 [2] Driving Factors - Improved US-China trade relations have significantly boosted market risk appetite; strong capital inflows are evident with a surge in margin loans in Hong Kong and record inflows from southbound capital, indicating growing interest from overseas investors in Chinese stocks [3] - The deepening of "anti-involution" policies is reshaping industry dynamics, coupled with adjustments in earnings multiples, leading Goldman Sachs to raise its 12-month target for the MSCI China Index from 85 to 90 [3] Investor Trends - There is a notable shift in overseas investors' interest towards the Chinese market, with a significant increase in attention from US investors and a reduction in geopolitical concerns compared to the previous two years [4] - Investors are increasingly focused on the logic behind China's "supply-side reform 2.0" (anti-involution), with Goldman Sachs releasing a report to explain the long-term impacts of this policy on industry concentration and profit models [4] - Despite increased holdings of Chinese stocks by emerging market/Asia mutual funds, global actively managed funds' allocation to China remains near a cyclical low, indicating substantial future allocation potential [4] Sector Adjustments - Goldman Sachs has made key adjustments in sector allocations, focusing on policy sensitivity, valuation recovery, and earnings expectations; sectors such as insurance and materials are now overweight, while real estate and banking have been downgraded [5][6] - The insurance sector is particularly attractive with a projected 2025 P/E ratio of 7.6 and P/B ratio of 1.0, benefiting from a recovering stock market [5] - The materials sector is also upgraded to overweight due to its strong correlation with the "anti-involution" policy, which is expected to enhance profitability and industry concentration [5] Key Contradictions - A core contradiction exists in global asset allocation, with the strong performance of the US stock market potentially hindering some investors' allocation to China; however, China's independent logic, driven by "anti-involution" policies and capital inflows, highlights its long-term investment value [8] - Goldman Sachs suggests focusing on policy-sensitive sectors like insurance and materials, as well as undervalued recovery opportunities in certain consumer sectors [8] Summary - In the second half of 2025, global asset allocation should focus on differentiated logic, with the US market emphasizing earnings resilience and AI-driven opportunities, while the offshore Chinese market should anchor on policy reforms, capital inflows, and valuation recovery, favoring sectors like insurance and materials while avoiding high-involution and high-valuation pressure industries [11]

2025 年 07 月 29 日 市场的双轮驱动系列一——交易 PPI 策略研究团队 ——投资策略专题 韦冀星（分析师） 耿驰政（联系人） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 gengchizheng@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125050007 弱基钦周期下交易 PPI 仍有可为 2025 年以来，我国 PPI 当月同比跌幅持续扩大，与此同时，近期密集出台反对"内 卷式竞争"的政策举措。目前市场普遍认为，当前供需失衡的核心矛盾在于需求疲 弱，单一供给收缩难以扭转物价中枢下行趋势，仍需更多需求端政策协同发力以推 动价格修复。然而，我们认为市场的预期差或在于——尽管 PPI 当前仍处于低位， 但其边际改善的可能性，叠加流动性宽松的环境，可能加速估值修复节奏。我们的 判断主要基于以下两个信号：一、信用端的传导正在为 PPI 的边际修复提供领先信 号；二、CRB 的领先指引与 PPI 走势出现结构性背离，但补涨逻辑正在形成。 "反内卷"成为了交易 PPI 的先行者，但行情或仍在扩散中 在政策的反复提及以及雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程的催化下，反内卷已向 PPI 交易扩 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share mid - year report performance pre - announcements show a sequential improvement but a slight year - on - year decline. Industry differentiation is significant, with non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals leading, while the real estate industry chain is under pressure [3]. - The market is mainly trading on the "anti - involution" policy expectations. The July Politburo meeting is yet to be held, and the market is concerned about the policy focus in the second - half economic work [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that China - US economic and trade officials will conduct the third round of trade consultations in Stockholm, Sweden. - The liquidity is relatively abundant, with the A - share margin trading balance increasing and the trading volume rising. The short - term upward speed of the stock index may slow down, showing a volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Their Driving Forces** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: Neutral. As of July 21, about 28.6% of A - share companies (1547) disclosed their 2025 mid - year report pre - announcements, with a pre - joy rate of 43.7%. Non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals have strong performance expectations, while the real estate industry chain is sluggish [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral - bullish. The market is highly concerned about whether the upcoming policies signal a new round of supply - side reform. The July Politburo meeting is awaited for policy focus [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: Neutral. The US Treasury Secretary announced China - US trade consultations [3]. - **Liquidity**: Bullish. The A - share margin trading balance increased, and the trading volume rose [3]. - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Adjust and go long. The short - term upward speed of the stock index may slow down due to the ebb of hot topics [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Adjust and go long. Risk concerns include domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.69% to 4127.2; the SSE 50 rose 1.12% to 2795.5; the CSI 500 rose 3.28% to 6299.6; the CSI 1000 rose 2.36% to 6706.6 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: In the Shenwan Primary Industry Index, building materials (8.2%), steel (7.7%), non - ferrous metals (6.7%), building decoration (5.6%), and real estate (4.1%) led the gains last week, while only banking (- 2.9%), communication (- 0.8%), and public utilities (- 0.3%) declined [9]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of some stock index futures changed. For example, the trading volume of CSI 300 futures increased by 3.80%, and the open interest increased by 2.76% [13]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of July 25, the annualized discounts and premiums of different contracts of various stock index futures varied [15]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at the 86.1% historical quantile level, and the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at the 61.7% historical quantile level [19]. 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, along with 400 billion yuan of MLF and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations. The net investment for the whole week was 10.95 billion yuan [26]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of July 24, the A - share margin trading balance was 1935.73 billion yuan, an increase of 39.32 billion yuan from the previous week. The margin trading volume accounted for 11.3% of the total market trading volume, at the 96.4% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 277.84 billion yuan compared with the previous week [32]. 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamental and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In June 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.2%, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and other economic indicators showed different trends [35]. - **Industry - specific Economic Data**: The real estate industry showed a decline in investment, while the manufacturing and consumer industries had their own characteristics. For example, the manufacturing industry maintained a certain growth rate, and the consumer industry had different performances in various sub - sectors [35][38][39]. - **PMI Data**: In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, showing marginal improvements in some sub - indicators [42]. - **Earnings Indicators of Major Broad - based Indexes**: The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders and ROE of major broad - based indexes varied [47]. - **Financial Data of Shenwan Primary Industry Index**: The profitability of different industries in the Shenwan Primary Industry Index showed significant differences, with some industries having high growth rates and others in decline [48]. 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drive - **Recent Macro - policy Trends**: A series of meetings and policies have been introduced, including the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizing the governance of low - price and disorderly competition, and the Central Urban Work Conference focusing on urban development transformation. A package of financial policies has also been announced to support the economy [52][53]. 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In June 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 49%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 147,000. The PCE and CPI also showed different trends [60][63]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have had a certain impact on international trade relations. There have also been legal disputes over tariff policies [69][71][73]. 3.7 Part Six: Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - As of July 25, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.5 times, 11.4 times, 30.7 times, and 41.3 times respectively, at the 73.7%, 81.5%, 71.6%, and 63.9% quantile levels in the past decade [76].

上证指数周线5连阳了，不过情绪却没有回暖。市场有自己的节奏，很多事情都不以谁的意志为转移。 越是有分歧，越是容易上涨。有分歧就有成交量，市场的筹码就有充分的换手率。当大家的持仓成本都 差不多的时候，市场又可以继续拉升了。 从市场营造的氛围看，不想散户进场，只要散户进来了就砸盘。市场虽然又到3600点，无论是媒体还是 情绪都很冷静，与上次924行情完全不同了。 大盘走势分析 不出意外，行业轮动上涨，大盘指数继续震荡向上。白酒、证券、地产的走势依旧是关键，不过半导体 目前也是决定力量了。 当前的行情不需要悲观指数，随便拉升就可以突破3674点了。市场有自己的节奏水平，一直震荡向上， 只要不是追高的筹码，大概率都有利润。 信号很明确了 指数目前大幅回调的可能性很低，因为银行、白酒回调的回调，压着指数压指数，市场有上涨的动能， 只是在等待利好落地。 下周的行情很不简单，无论是美联储议息，还是我们的政策发布，从最近房地产、化债、的内券的筹码 表现看，肯定是有资金在博弈利好了。 而且，很可能已经是明牌的事情了，只是我们散户蒙在鼓里。大家想过没有，最近的市场如此活跃，特 别是北向资金的参与度，是不是有潜在的利好。 资金抛弃 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid expansion of Duofe Group, a major player in various industries, has raised concerns about potential risks and underlying issues, particularly related to debt disputes and project delays [1][4][9]. Group 1: Company Overview - Duofe Group, founded by Hu Xingrong, has transformed from a small lock manufacturing company into a diversified business empire with over 200 billion yuan in annual revenue, ranking 38th among China's private enterprises [2][5][8]. - The company has expanded into multiple sectors, including real estate, aviation, new energy, and cultural tourism, establishing a global business footprint [5][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Duofe Group reported revenues of 218.9 billion yuan and total assets of 143.3 billion yuan, with Hu Xingrong's personal wealth reaching 13 billion yuan, placing him on the Hurun Global Rich List [8]. Group 3: Debt Issues - Duofe Group is facing significant debt disputes, with its subsidiary, Wenzhou Duofe Real Estate Group, involved in 18 legal cases, totaling approximately 34.2 million yuan, and a total execution amount of 28.5 million yuan [10]. - Other subsidiaries, including Chongqing Huangshi Real Estate, are also embroiled in financial disputes, indicating a broader issue within the group's financial management [10]. Group 4: Project Delays - Several projects, including the aviation industrial park and cultural tourism initiatives, have experienced significant delays and standstills, raising concerns about the company's operational efficiency [11][12]. - The Wenzhou Aviation Industrial Park, initially projected to be a major investment, has not progressed as planned, with the company facing legal actions related to its commitments [11]. Group 5: Strategic Risks - The aggressive expansion strategy of Duofe Group, while initially successful, has exposed the company to various risks, including financial instability and operational challenges, highlighting the need for a more sustainable approach to growth [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the progress of "anti - involution" governance. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, aiming to clarify the standards for identifying improper price behaviors and regulate market price order. Additionally, the automobile replacement subsidy policies in many places have been adjusted [1]. - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the mid - year monetary policy adjustment. On July 25, the central bank conducted a 400 - billion - yuan Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased MLF roll - overs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - In the black sector, the prices of upstream black products have been continuously rising [2]. - In the agricultural sector, egg prices have been on a continuous upward trend [2]. Midstream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of polyester and PX have remained stable [3]. - In the energy sector, the coal consumption has been increasing recently [3]. Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in third - tier cities have slightly rebounded [3]. - In the service sector, the number of summer flight schedules has increased [3]. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - As of July 25, the industry credit spreads of various sectors showed different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector was 58.97 (previous week: 60.41), and that of the real estate sector was 99.89 (previous week: 101.86) [48]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - As of July 24, the prices of various products showed different trends. For instance, the spot price of eggs was 6.9 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 19.24%; the spot price of WTI crude oil was 65.3 US dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.70% [49].

Group 1 - The recent increase in risk appetite has led to a strong stock market, which has put pressure on the bond market, raising questions about the sustainability of the current stock-bond switch and whether the "bond bull" trend has ended [1] - Since mid-July, the A-share market has shown significant strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through key levels of 3500 and 3600 points, and trading volume reaching 1.93 trillion yuan on July 22, the highest since March 7 [1] - Despite the stock market's performance, the bond market has not experienced panic selling, with the yield on 10-year government bonds only rising by 5.45 basis points in July, indicating a cautious market outlook on growth and inflation factors [1] Group 2 - The strong performance of the A-share market this year has been primarily driven by bank stocks and small-cap stocks, while cyclical sectors such as steel, coal, real estate, and consumer goods have lagged behind [2] - The "anti-involution" policy signals and the development of hydropower projects have boosted market expectations for economic fundamentals, but the sustainability of cyclical stock and commodity price increases remains uncertain due to challenges in capacity reduction policies and weak demand [2] - The economic fundamentals show a mixed picture, with external uncertainties and a need for stronger domestic demand, while monetary policy remains accommodative [3] Group 3 - Current price levels are low, with CPI and core CPI remaining subdued, and PPI showing an expanding year-on-year decline, which affects corporate revenue and consumer confidence [3] - The government is actively increasing leverage, but the willingness of the real economy to expand credit remains insufficient, leading to weak demand for credit from enterprises and households [3] - Although local government bond issuance has accelerated, it mainly addresses refinancing of hidden debts, with new bond issuance lagging behind historical averages, potentially delaying economic support [3] Group 4 - Overall, the market environment for the "bond bull" has not fundamentally changed, but short-term fluctuations in the bond market may increase due to low long-term interest rates and heightened attractiveness of the stock market [4]