房地产市场进入调整下半场，跌幅收窄但对政策敏感。总需求扩张带来 的就业和收入改善是房价见底的关键，当前静态持有房产与利率相比仍 存在倒挂。 地产股定价宜采用两分法，即在手项目隐含净利润流加上未来持续拿地 补货隐含利润贴现，更贴近 DCF 模型，有效反映长期价值。房价下跌幅 度、速度及库存结构决定公司盈利能力。 股市底部通常领先于楼市底部，优秀龙头地产公司的股价底部已相对明 确，未来三年内，若房价跌幅趋缓，这些公司股价具有上涨空间。 当前非银行业股票上涨逻辑是资本市场慢牛趋势，逆周期调节机制降低 市场波动率。保险行业通过增配权益应对低利率周期，券商行业受益于 业务集中度提升。 银行板块近期调整受资金面影响，但中期维度内权益市场上行方向和银 行基本面稳定性不变，优质银行股估值已超跌，配置时点临近。 在资本市场慢牛假设下，保险和券商长周期受益，建议跟随监管逆周期 调节增配。银行股 PB 估值全面破净，超跌阶段 PB 估值和 ROE 匹配度 将反弹。 上市银行 2025 年业绩快报显示营收增速回升，净息差企稳及利净收入 增速回升是主要因素。市场聚焦 2026 年业绩展望，看好优质城商行， 推荐江浙、山东、川渝地区头部 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds declined last week, with 6 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $1.906 billion. The secondary market showed a slight increase [1][5]. - US Treasury yields fluctuated upward. As of January 23, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.8 bps to 3.594%, and the 10 - year yield rose 0.23 bps to 4.2252% [3]. - Various macro - economic events occurred, including GDP growth in different countries, central bank policy decisions, and changes in economic forecasts [34][39][40]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Primary Market - Last week, the primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds decreased. Six new bonds were issued, with a total scale of about $1.906 billion. The Hong Kong MTR Corporation issued two green bonds worth a total of A$2 billion, the largest issuance scale of the week. Shui On Land issued a $300 million bond with a coupon rate of 9.75%, the highest - priced new bond of the week [1][7]. 3.2 Secondary Market - **Index Performance**: The Chinese US - dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) rose 0.15% week - on - week, and the emerging market US - dollar bond index rose 0.20%. The investment - grade index closed at 203.1452, up 0.15% for the week, and the high - yield index closed at 161.8156, up 0.18%. The Chinese US - dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.11% week - on - week [5][9]. - **Industry Performance**: Different industries had varying yield changes. For example, the healthcare industry's yield decreased by 40.2 bps, while the real - estate industry's yield increased significantly [19]. - **Rating Performance**: Investment - grade names generally rose, with A - grade weekly yields down 5.0 bps and BBB - grade down 2.7 bps. High - yield names mostly fell, with BB - grade yields down 6.6 bps and DD+ to NR - grade yields up about 7.9 bps [21]. - **Hot Events**: Panhai Holdings failed to repay due interest - bearing debts totaling 34.06 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025. Sunac China Holdings had new overdue borrowings and 19 new acts of dishonesty [25][26]. - **Rating Adjustments**: The ratings of several companies were adjusted, such as the upgrade of Qingdao Haifa Group's issuer rating to A+ and the downgrade of Wanda Commercial's family rating to Ca [28][29]. 3.3 US Treasury Quotes - A table shows the quotes of US Treasuries, including the code, maturity date, current price, yield to maturity, and coupon rate, with maturities over 6 months and sorted by yield to maturity from high to low [30]. 3.4 Macro Data Tracking - As of January 23, the US Treasury yields were as follows: 1 - year (T1) at 3.5083%, down 2.66 bps from the previous week; 2 - year (T2) at 3.594%, up 0.8 bps; 5 - year (T5) at 3.8245%, up 0.93 bps; 10 - year (T10) at 4.2252%, up 0.23 bps [35]. 3.5 Macro News - US GDP in Q3 2025 had an annualized quarterly growth of 4.4%, higher than the initial value. Trump reached an agreement framework on Greenland, and tariffs would not take effect. Most economists expected the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter. The IMF raised the economic forecasts for China and the world in 2026. Japan's central bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.75%, and South Korea's GDP growth in 2025 was 1%, half of the previous year's rate [34][35][39].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher but declined, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.06% at 26,765.52 points and a total turnover of HKD 261.699 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.24% to 5,725.99 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.15% to 9,147.21 points [1] - Foreign and southbound capital continued to flow into the market, with public fund positions in Hong Kong stocks dropping to 23% in Q4, indicating reduced potential selling pressure [1] Blue Chip Performance - China Shenhua (01088) led blue-chip stocks, rising 4.42% to HKD 42.5, contributing 9.34 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip performers included Zijin Mining (02899) up 4.35%, CNOOC (00883) up 4.01%, while Xinyi Solar (00968) and Tingyi (00322) saw declines of 5.85% and 4.59% respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Large tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Tencent rising 0.76% and Alibaba falling nearly 2% [3] - Precious metals and other non-ferrous metals continued to rise, with gold, copper, and aluminum showing strength [3] - The oil and gas sector was active, influenced by geopolitical tensions and cold weather, with Shandong Molong (00568) up 4.89% and CNOOC (00883) up 4.01% [4] Precious Metals - International gold prices reached a historical high, surpassing USD 5,100 per ounce, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [4] - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price forecast from USD 4,900 to USD 5,400 per ounce, anticipating monthly purchases of 60 tons by central banks [4] Popular Stocks - Ark Health (06086) surged 33.22% after announcing a positive earnings forecast for 2025, expecting revenue of HKD 3.5-3.55 billion, a 30% year-on-year increase [8] - Modern Dental (03600) rose 16.05% following a significant share acquisition by Hillhouse Capital [9] - Zhizhu (02513) increased by 13.02%, supported by strong technological capabilities and a robust ecosystem [10] - Lao Pu Gold (06181) gained 7.8% due to increased consumer demand during the Spring Festival [11] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) reached a new high, with forecasts of record profits in 2025 [12]

截至收盘，沪指微跌0.09%报4132.61点，深证成指跌0.85%，创业板指跌0.91%，上证50指数涨0.57%； 沪深北三市合计成交约3.28万亿元。 1月26日，沪指盘中窄幅震荡，创业板指弱势下探，一度跌超1%；A股市场超3700股飘绿。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 盘面上看，半导体、汽车、地产、军工、零售等板块走低，有色、石油、保险、农业、医药等板块拉 升，黄金概念、生物疫苗、创新药概念等活跃。 银河证券表示，短期来看，春季行情延续，后续板块轮动上涨概率较大，业绩基本面重要性提升。一方 面，1月下旬正值上市公司年报业绩预告集中披露期，关注业绩线索对结构性行情的指引，高景气赛道 与盈利改善细分板块或迎来行情修复。另一方面，美联储议息会议即将召开，市场普遍预计美联储将维 持基准利率不变，政策声明以及新闻发布会表态或阶段性影响市场风险偏好。板块轮动中关注结构性投 资机会。主线一，科技创新板块。短期来看，关注细分板块之间的轮动补涨机会。前期强势的商业航 天、AI应用等主题受到产业趋势催化，但后续内部分化或有所加大。主线二，制造业、资源板块盈利 修复路径清晰。重点关注涨价逻辑下业绩支撑的有色金属、基础化工等行业 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that investors have a positive attitude towards Hong Kong real estate, prioritizing real estate developers, Central office spaces, and luxury retail, while non-essential retail is viewed less favorably [1] - Investors expect property prices to enter an upward cycle this year, with a projected increase of 5% to 10%, although about 10% of investors are skeptical about the sustainability of prices in 2027 and 2028 due to reliance on pent-up demand [1] - The valuation of Hong Kong real estate stocks remains attractive compared to other Asia-Pacific regions, but companies need to demonstrate uniqueness and actual performance to support further stock price revaluation [1] Group 2 - There is a divergence in market views on companies such as Sino Land (00083), Henderson Land (00012), and Hysan Development (00014), while Link REIT (00823) and Wharf Real Estate Investment (01997) are seen as sell targets [2] - Less discussion surrounds companies like Cheung Kong Property (01113), Kerry Properties (00683), Regal Real Estate Investment Trust (01881), and others [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a narrow fluctuation with over 3,700 stocks in the red, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly increased by 0.12% and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 0.74% and 0.86% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached approximately 2.26 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as semiconductors, retail, liquor, and real estate saw declines, while insurance, oil, non-ferrous metals, coal, and brokerage sectors showed gains [1] - Gold and biopharmaceutical concepts were active in the market [1] Short-term Market Outlook - According to Zhongyin Securities, the market is currently in a high-level fluctuation phase with increasing structural differentiation, driven by expectations for domestic demand expansion policies and supply-side policies to curb industry "involution" [1] - There is a caution regarding the impact of short-term regulatory easing on the marginal increase of ETF and leveraged funds on the market [1] - The market may enter a phase of oscillation and speculation before the holiday, with a focus on performance-driven stocks [1] Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to benefit from dual drivers of industrial trends and financial attributes by 2026 [1] - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and risk aversion are expected to enhance the industry's valuation [1] - In the context of Sino-US competition, strategic metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony may see a revaluation of their strategic value [1] - In the short term, the upward slope of the industry may slow down, with a focus on industrial metals and precious metals that have performance support [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a narrow fluctuation with over 3,700 stocks in the red, while the Shanghai Composite Index slightly increased by 0.12% and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index decreased by 0.74% and 0.86% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached approximately 2.26 trillion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Sectors such as semiconductors, retail, liquor, and real estate saw declines, while insurance, oil, non-ferrous metals, coal, and brokerage sectors showed gains [1] - Gold and biopharmaceutical concepts were notably active in the market [1] Short-term Market Outlook - According to Zhongyin Securities, the market is currently in a high-level fluctuation phase with increasing structural differentiation, driven by expectations for domestic demand expansion policies and supply-side policies aimed at curbing industry "involution" [1] - There is an anticipation of a phase of oscillation and speculation in the market before the holiday, with a focus on performance-driven stocks [1] Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to benefit from dual drivers of industrial trends and financial attributes by 2026, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and risk aversion boosting industry valuations [1] - In the context of Sino-US competition, strategic metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony may see a revaluation of their strategic value [1] - In the short term, the upward slope of the industry may slow down, with a focus on industrial metals and precious metals that have performance support [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference primarily discusses the bond market, focusing on the recovery trends observed since mid-January 2026, with specific attention to government bonds and credit bonds [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Recovery of the Bond Market - The bond market has shown signs of recovery due to three main factors: 1. **Stability of Government and Local Bonds**: The stability of interest rates for government bonds and local bonds has been crucial. The 10-year government bond has remained stable, not exceeding 1.9%, while local bonds have stayed below 2.5% [2]. 2. **Banking Sector Participation**: There has been an increase in bank allocations to bonds, particularly after the clarity of KPIs for banks in 2026. This has led to a stronger demand for bonds, especially those with shorter durations [3][4]. 3. **External Support Factors**: External factors such as the stagnation of equity markets and expectations of monetary easing have contributed to the bond market's recovery. The MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) has also seen increased volumes, indicating a supportive monetary environment [4][5]. Future Market Outlook - The outlook for the bond market remains cautious but optimistic. Short-duration bonds are expected to perform well, while long-duration bonds may face more volatility. The market anticipates that the recovery could serve as a precedent for future bond market trends in 2026 [5][6]. - The potential for downward movement in interest rates exists, particularly for 10-year government bonds, if deposit rates continue to decline [5][6]. Risks and Challenges - The bond market may face challenges related to supply and demand mismatches, especially in the first and second quarters of 2026. The issuance of local bonds is expected to be high, which could lead to increased pressure on the market [9][10]. - The risk indicators for banks remain a concern, particularly for smaller banks, which may face stricter regulations and slower adjustments to their risk profiles [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on 10-year government bonds and certain credit bonds, particularly those with favorable yield spreads. The expectation is that these assets will provide stability and potential for appreciation in the current market environment [11][12]. - The discussion also highlights the potential for industry-specific perpetual bonds, particularly those issued by state-owned enterprises, which are seen as having a favorable risk-return profile [17][18]. Market Dynamics - The dynamics of the bond market are influenced by the behavior of institutional investors, with a noted shift towards increasing allocations in response to market conditions. The performance of convertible bonds is also highlighted, with expectations of continued demand despite some volatility [26][27]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently in a recovery phase, supported by stable interest rates, increased bank participation, and favorable external conditions. However, potential risks related to supply-demand mismatches and regulatory pressures on banks warrant careful monitoring. Investment strategies should focus on stable, shorter-duration bonds and select credit instruments to navigate the evolving landscape [36].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2026 has shown mixed performance, with some investors profiting significantly from AI ETFs while others face challenges in sectors like real estate. The article emphasizes the importance of understanding liquidity changes to navigate the market effectively [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent spring market rally has been driven by three waves of capital inflow: first, broad-based ETFs, second, flexible foreign capital, and third, leveraged funds, each contributing to the market's upward momentum [4]. - The first wave involved broad-based ETFs, particularly the CSI A500 Index ETF, which saw significant inflows as institutional investors positioned themselves early [4]. - The second wave was characterized by flexible foreign capital entering the market due to a strengthening RMB, boosting market sentiment [4]. - The third wave saw leveraged funds becoming a major force as investors increased their positions, pushing indices to new highs [4]. Group 2: Recent Changes in Liquidity - Recent weeks have shown signs of liquidity pressure, with net redemptions in ETFs, particularly in the CSI 300 and STAR 50 Index ETFs, indicating a shift in investor behavior [5][6]. - The inflow of flexible foreign capital has slowed, with expectations of continued outflows as these investors tend to be short-term players [6]. - Regulatory measures have been introduced to cool down the rapid inflow of leveraged funds, which may lead to increased market volatility but is intended to promote rational investment [7]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Despite short-term liquidity pressures, the spring market rally is expected to continue, presenting potential buying opportunities during market fluctuations [8][9]. - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong fundamentals and potential for growth, such as technology and undervalued traditional assets like real estate [10][12]. - The article suggests avoiding ETFs with high redemption pressures and instead focusing on those with strong institutional backing, such as the CSI A500 Index ETF [11]. - Real estate and other traditional sectors like non-bank financials and liquor are highlighted as having potential for investment due to their stable cash flows and improving fundamentals [12][14].

Business Outlook - The overall short-term business outlook for large enterprises in Hong Kong is expected to remain stable in Q1 2026, with a slight decrease in recruitment intentions [1] - The proportion of respondents expecting better business conditions in Q1 2026 is 11%, slightly down from 13% in Q4 2025, while those expecting worse conditions decreased from 15% to 14% [2] Industry Analysis - Most industries anticipate that business conditions in Q1 2026 will either worsen or remain unchanged compared to Q4 2025, particularly in the construction and accommodation sectors, where a significant number of respondents expect a decline [2] - In contrast, the financial and insurance sectors have a higher proportion of respondents expecting improved business conditions compared to those expecting a decline [2] Business Output - Overall, respondents expect business/output volume in Q1 2026 to decrease or remain unchanged compared to Q4 2025, especially in the accommodation and construction sectors [4] - Conversely, a larger number of respondents in the financial and insurance sectors anticipate an increase in business volume compared to Q4 2025 [4] Employment - In half of the surveyed industries, respondents expect the number of employees in Q1 2026 to remain stable compared to Q4 2025; however, a significant number in the construction sector expect a decrease [5] - In the manufacturing and real estate sectors, more respondents expect an increase in employment than those expecting a decrease [5] Pricing - Most industries expect the prices of goods/services in Q1 2026 to remain stable compared to Q4 2025; however, in the construction sector, a larger number of respondents anticipate a decrease in bidding prices [6]