2025 年 11 月 25 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 行业研究 【医药生物】小核酸药物风起云涌，下一代创新药浪潮呼之欲出——医药生物行业跨 市场周报（20251124）(增持) 本周观点：小核酸药物风起云涌，下一代创新药浪潮呼之欲出。近期，全球范围内的 小核酸药物领域频频出现新进展，引发产业界和投资界的高度关注。小核酸药物已从 概念验证进入产业崛起前夜，行业迎来"技术突破+商业兑现"双主线驱动的黄金发 展期。国内药企研发进展加速，2025 年以来大批企业进入临床研究阶段，建议重点 关注技术平台领先且管线差异化布局的龙头创新药企业，以及有望受益于产业整体景 气度上行的创新产业链企业，建议关注恒瑞医药（A+H）、信达生物（H）、药明康 德（A+H）、前沿生物、成都先导、键凯科技等。 【房地产】加速聚焦核心，1-10 月核心 6 城土拍总价占比近半——土地市场月度跟踪 报告（2025 年 10 月）(增持) 10 月，光大核心 30 城成交宅地 133 宗，同比-33.2%，成交楼面均价 9,279 元/平， 同比-4.5%。1-10 月，百城宅地成交建面同比-9%，成交楼面均价同比+15%，核心 6 ...

江阴利港2×100万千瓦机组扩建项目是江苏省能源建设重点工程，也是江苏电网500千伏沿江通道和"北 电南送"输电走廊的重要枢纽。作为该项目电力外送的"主动脉"，其配套的500千伏电力送出工程于2024 年11月8日开工建设，新建一座500千伏桃花港开关站，并架设总长12.9公里的输电线路及43基铁塔。 作为经济大省，江苏今年加快推进8个火电项目升级改造，目前已有5个兼具高效环保与深度调峰能力的 项目陆续建成。据国网江苏省电力有限公司相关负责人介绍，江苏省一批火电项目正通过技术改造，逐 步由主力电源向调峰电源转型，积极融入新型电力系统建设。 "新机组采用二次再热技术，供电煤耗较常规机组降低10%，年减排二氧化碳约120万吨。"江苏利电能 源集团相关负责人表示，该项目将于11月底投运，有望为长三角地区注入新的发展动力。 国网无锡供电公司建设部主任宣伟锡介绍，该工程投运后将全面释放江阴利港电厂两台100万千瓦机组 的发电能力，每年可向苏南地区稳定输送电量88亿千瓦时，相当于260万户家庭一年的用电量，为区域 能源供应提供坚实保障。 记者11月23日从国网无锡供电公司获悉，江苏江阴利港2×100万千瓦机组扩建项目配套 ...

Financing Developments - Yunnan Energy Investment Group's subsidiary, Weixin Energy, signed a non-standard financing replacement agreement worth 1.8 billion yuan, expected to save 50 million yuan in financial costs annually after replacing high-cost financing with an interest rate of less than 3% [1] - Henan Investment Group announced the transfer of 10.9 billion yuan in assets to Henan Zhongyu International Port Group as part of a strategy to optimize land port resources [3] - The issuance of an asset-backed security (ABS) project by Zhengxin Construction Investment Service Center has been accepted, with a proposed issuance amount of 1 billion yuan [5] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 3,387 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a net injection of 557 billion yuan [6] - A 10,000 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation is set to be conducted to maintain liquidity in the banking system [7] Corporate Changes - Huang Ming has been elected as the chairman of Xinyang Huaxin Investment Group, replacing Yang Fan [1] - Wang Qiang is no longer the chairman of Hefei High-tech Holding Group [16] Debt Market Activity - Xinxiang State-owned Capital Operation Group completed the issuance of 1 billion yuan in corporate bonds at an interest rate of 2.26% [9][10] - Shennong Industrial Co., Ltd. plans to issue up to 1 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds, with a coupon rate between 2.1% and 3.1% [11] - The second batch of technology innovation bonds supported by risk-sharing tools is set to be issued, totaling 930 million yuan [12] Risk Management - Inner Mongolia's 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the resolution of hidden debts and the dynamic clearance of high-risk financial institutions [8] - The announcement from Jingchu Cultural Industry Investment Group regarding its exit from the financing platform seeks creditor opinions on the matter [17] Market Sentiment - The Western Fixed Income team anticipates a more stable funding rate environment, with the bond market likely to remain volatile in the short term [20]

Core Insights - As of the end of October, China's total installed power generation capacity reached 3.75 billion kilowatts, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1][2] - Solar power generation capacity reached 1.14 billion kilowatts, with a significant year-on-year growth of 43.8%, while wind power capacity increased by 21.4% to 590 million kilowatts [1][2] - The data indicates a recovery in the solar industry, with October seeing a new photovoltaic installation capacity of 12.6 GW, a 30.4% increase from September [3][4] Installed Capacity Breakdown - Total installed capacity: 3.75 billion kilowatts, up 17.3% year-on-year [2] - Hydropower: 443.88 million kilowatts, up 3.0% [2] - Thermal power: 1.51473 billion kilowatts, up 6.0% [2] - Nuclear power: 62.48 million kilowatts, up 7.6% [2] - Wind power: 590.39 million kilowatts, up 21.4% [2] - Solar power: 1.14018 billion kilowatts, up 43.8% [2] Recent Trends and Developments - The fourth quarter is typically a peak construction season for the solar industry in China, but recent policy adjustments have altered this seasonal pattern [4] - The simultaneous increase in solar, wind, and thermal power installations reflects China's multi-path approach to enhancing its power system to meet growing electricity demand and optimize energy structure [4] - New installations in October included 8.9 GW of wind power and 8.4 GW of thermal power, indicating a balanced growth across different energy sources [4]

2025 年 11 月 24 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 11 月 21 日，港股受隔夜美股下跌拖累，继续下探。周五恒生指数最终收报 25,220 点，跌 615 点（2.3%）；恒生科技指 数下跌 179 点（3.2%），收报 5,395 点；全天大市成交额扩大至 2,857 亿元。港股通净流入大幅减少至 1.1 亿元。盘面 上，科技股下跌幅度较大，腾讯（700 HK）下跌 1.8%；阿里巴巴（9988 HK）跌 4.6%，中芯国际（981 HK）跌 6.4%。国 内磷酸铁锂行业推进"反内卷"，中国化学与物理电源产业协会要求企业应将协会 11 月 18 日披露的行业平均成本区间 作为报价的重要参考，不要突破成本红线开展低价倾销。锂电相关个股受压，赣锋锂业（1772 HK）周五跌 12.5%；天齐 锂业（9696 HK）跌 11.9%；宁德时代（3750 HK）解禁后连续下跌，周五跌 3.7%。领展房产基金（823 HK）由于宣布减 少派息，令投资者失望，连续两天放量下跌。 美股方面，英伟达季度业绩强劲，令市场对人工智能前景重启乐观情绪；加上延迟发布的美国 9 月非农业职位增长远高 于预期，带动美股周四高开 ...

Core Viewpoints - Current risk release provides an opportunity for reallocating A-shares and Hong Kong stocks by year-end and planning for 2026 [2] - The AI sector is experiencing a "darkest hour," but long-term confidence remains unwavering [4] - The adjustment phase is merely a "doubtful bull market level" [11] Industry Insights - Focus on resource and traditional manufacturing opportunities, particularly in chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and new energy [3] - The AI industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with significant valuation growth potential for A-share companies [8] - The market is likely to experience a style switch, with increasing attention on low-valued sectors [6] Investment Recommendations - Emphasize sectors benefiting from physical asset consumption, such as upstream resources (copper, aluminum, lithium, oil, coal) and midstream industries [5] - Maintain a balanced allocation between growth sectors and undervalued value industries, particularly in the consumer sector as year-end approaches [10] - Focus on AI applications and sectors closely related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," such as hydrogen energy, nuclear energy, and quantum technology [14]

Core Insights - The project "Two Joint Ventures" and Comprehensive Energy Base in Yongcheng, Henan, is a significant initiative aimed at enhancing regional economic development and energy structure transformation [2][5] - The project has a total investment of 27.5 billion yuan and is part of the first batch of demonstration projects approved by the National Development and Reform Commission [2] - The project includes the construction of 2×1 million kilowatt high-efficiency ultra-supercritical coal power, 2 million kilowatt wind power, and 1 million kilowatt photovoltaic projects, along with a shared energy storage station [2] Group 1 - The construction site is currently active with over 1,700 workers and nearly 100 large machinery units engaged in operations, ensuring safety and quality [1] - Key milestones achieved include the completion of the chimney outer wall, installation of boiler beams, and the commencement of equipment installation for the steam turbine and boiler [1][2] - The project aims to establish the largest "wind-solar-fire-storage" integrated energy demonstration base in Central China, contributing to the green and low-carbon transition of Henan's energy structure [2] Group 2 - The project is in a critical phase to meet annual construction targets, with a focus on safety and quality control to achieve key structural goals by the end of 2025 [2][4] - The 110 kV booster station's main structure and all equipment foundations have been completed, with ongoing installation of main transformers and high-voltage switchgear [4] - The local government has established a joint mechanism to support the project, ensuring high standards and quality in construction through effective problem-solving and strategic planning [4][5]

2025 年 11 月 21 日 星期五 ➢ 每日大市点评 11 月 20 日，港股缺乏向上推动力。除美国 12 月减息的不确定性外，中日关系紧张亦增加市场风险情绪，加上近期迎来 多达 28 只股份将陆续解禁，为港股带来调整压力。周四恒生指数最终收报 25,835 点，微涨 4 点（0.02%）；恒生科技指 数下跌 32 点（0.6%），收报 5,574 点；全天大市成交额稍稍扩大至 2,451 亿元。港股通净流入增长至接近 160 亿元，是 近一个月以来单日净流入金额最高。盘面上，市场传闻政府将推出新一轮房地产刺激措施，消息导致内房股周四造好， 碧桂园（2007 HK）涨 3.1%；万科（2202 HK）涨 3.7%；中海外（688 HK）涨 2.5%。11 月 19 日宁德时代（3750 HK）有 7,000 多万股 H 股解禁，周四股价下挫 5.7%。除了宁德时代，年底前还有曹操出行（2643 HK）、英诺赛科（2577 HK） 和药捷安康（2617 HK）等较大规模股份解禁。投资者警惕基金在假期前减持股份。 美股方面，英伟达季度业绩强劲，令市场对人工智能前景重启乐观情绪；加上延迟发布的美国 9 月非农 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional coal-fired power industry is undergoing significant transformation, shifting from a cyclical asset to a stable value asset due to changes in energy structure and market reforms [1][2]. Industry Transformation - The coal-fired power sector has transitioned from being a "power provider" to a "regulatory guarantor," with its role evolving to include peak supply and frequency regulation in response to the instability of renewable energy sources [1][2]. - The installed capacity of coal-fired power has decreased from 66% in 2015 to 40% by July 2025, while its generation share has dropped from 74% to 65% [1]. New Profitability Framework - The profitability of coal-fired power is now influenced by three main factors: rising capacity prices, increasing auxiliary service revenues, and the gradual improvement of the coal-electricity linkage mechanism [2][3]. - The capacity price mechanism, effective from 2024, will provide fixed compensation based on installed capacity, with expected prices rising from 100 yuan/kW·year in 2024-2025 to 165 yuan/kW·year in 2026, and up to 230 yuan/kW·year in leading provinces [2]. - Auxiliary service revenues are projected to grow significantly, with Huaneng International's net income from auxiliary services expected to rise from 1.473 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.458 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. Market Dynamics - The shift towards market-based trading has reduced the influence of traditional pricing factors, allowing coal-fired power companies to optimize pricing strategies and enhance revenue per unit of electricity generated [2][3]. - The marketization of pricing mechanisms has effectively smoothed out cost fluctuations, leading to a more stable return on equity (ROE) for coal-fired power plants, projected to stabilize around 10% [3]. Financial Performance and Outlook - The coal-fired power sector is experiencing improved financial metrics, with a projected 8.2% growth in equity for 2023-2024 and a further 3.5% increase in the first half of 2025 [4][5]. - Operating cash flow for the coal-fired power sector is expected to reach 144 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.4% [5]. - The sector's dividend payouts are also on the rise, with a 91% year-on-year increase in total dividends in the first half of 2025, indicating a sustainable dividend capacity [5]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines of opportunity within the coal-fired power sector: leading companies with improving performance, firms committed to high dividends, and regionally stable leaders [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinkong Electric, plans to sell 51% of its wholly-owned subsidiary, Tongying Thermal Power, to Jinbei Energy for 266 million yuan to improve asset liquidity and support ongoing project financing [1][6]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The transaction involves a non-public agreement for the transfer of shares between two subsidiaries under the same parent company, Jinneng Holdings [1]. - The assessed value of Tongying Thermal Power is 521 million yuan, with a minimal increase of 0.66% over its book value [3]. - The project under Tongying Thermal Power is still in the construction phase and has not yet generated revenue [2][5]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The sale will result in a cash inflow of 266 million yuan for Jinkong Electric, but will not impact its profit or loss due to the lack of accumulated profits from Tongying Thermal Power [5][6]. - The transaction has been approved through a rigorous process, ensuring compliance with corporate governance standards [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Rationale - The sale is part of a strategy to optimize asset structure amid the energy sector's transformation, allowing for quicker capital recovery [1][6]. - Jinbei Energy, the acquiring company, is positioned to expedite the project’s construction due to its strong financial backing [4].