Report Investment Rating - The rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, pending fundamental verification [4]. Core Viewpoints - External risks have risen, but the domestic trend remains optimistic. China's economic new pattern driven by domestic demand and innovation is taking shape. The window for interest rate cuts may open in the second quarter. Attention should be paid to the window period of domestic easing policies during the April Politburo meeting [1]. - The negative impact of tariff events on asset prices has temporarily ended. Future focus should be on the impact on the economic fundamentals. The US tariff policy may lead to stagflation in the US economy [2]. - For commodities, focus on the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. The rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's government has set a positive tone for the year, with an increased deficit rate, a lower CPI target, and expanded government credit. China's Q1 GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year. The LPR has remained unchanged for 6 consecutive months, and the interest rate cut window may open in Q2 [1]. - Trump's tariff policy has been volatile. The US has imposed high anti - dumping and anti - subsidy taxes on Southeast Asian countries' photovoltaic products. Trump may "significantly reduce" tariffs on China. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations with Japan and the EU [2]. Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, the market first trades on the decline in demand and then on the rise in inflation. Industrial products are vulnerable to the impact of US stock market adjustments. The accident at the Antamina copper mine in Peru supports copper prices. Agricultural products may see price increases, and attention should be paid to the change in the soybean - palm oil spread. Crude oil prices have declined, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term [3]. Strategy - The rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing clarity of the allocation logic for Hong Kong stocks among public funds as they disclose their Q1 2025 reports [1][4] - In Q1, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a structural rally driven by the release of consumer dividends and the upgrade of the technology industry [2][3] - Major public funds have significantly increased their holdings in technology leaders such as Tencent Holdings, SMIC, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, as well as new consumption targets like Li Auto and Pop Mart [1][2] Group 2 - The focus of fund holdings is primarily on two directions: technology internet giants and smart vehicles/new consumption [3][4] - Tencent Holdings was the most favored stock among public funds, with 27 products heavily invested, while SMIC and Alibaba were also among the top holdings [2][3] - Fund managers emphasize the strong growth momentum in the technology internet sector as a core logic for increasing allocations, with AI-related investments being a key area of focus [4][6] Group 3 - The article notes that the Hong Kong stock market is still considered a value trap, with many traditional industry leaders being undervalued [6][7] - The potential for recovery in the Hong Kong market is supported by factors such as low valuations, improving domestic economic conditions, and continuous net inflows from Hong Kong Stock Connect [6][7] - Fund managers express optimism about the growth potential of emerging consumption driven by younger consumers and the recognition of new consumption concepts [5][6]

棱镜 . 以下文章来源于棱镜 ，作者肖望 腾讯新闻出品栏目，《棱镜》聚焦泛财经深度记录。 "避风港"为何失灵？ 作者 | 肖望 编辑 | 孙春芳 来源 | 棱镜 （ID：lengjing_qqfinance） 9 90元/克！这是4月11日一早金饰品牌周大福公布的首饰金价，创下历史新高。两天时间 内大涨近60元/克，连见多了世面的周大福店员也不由得连连感叹：太疯狂了。 首饰金价破千仅一步之遥，另一边周六福品牌的999 .9足金饰品价已抢先一步，挂牌1 010 元/克。 金饰价格创历史新高，背后是国际金价的深"V"型反转：4月3日至4月7日，国际金价连续 三个交易日暴跌，区间跌幅达到7.08%；但从4月8日至4月11日，金价又快速反弹，并创 下历史新高3263美元/盎司。上海黄金交易所报价也从4月7日开盘的7 03元/克拉涨至762 元/克，5天上涨近60元/克，涨幅约8. 40%。 这样的波动幅度，在黄金市场中并不常见。而高盛、瑞银等国际投行还进一步上调了对黄 金的价格预期。 投资者对黄金的押注热情高涨，甚至有投资者贷款炒金，试图抓住黄金的"历史机遇"，短 短五天里就经历了巨亏到大赚的两极反转。 黄金大跌源于 ...

Group 1: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The tariffs imposed by Trump are expected to significantly harm the U.S. economy, with the average tariff rate on all imported goods projected to rise from 2.5% in 2024 to 16.5% in 2025, the highest since 1937, leading to an estimated decline in imports by approximately $800 billion [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs has caused U.S. companies to delay major investment decisions, reflecting a broader hesitation in both corporate and consumer spending due to unpredictable economic conditions [3][4] - Major technology companies, including Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft, have seen a combined market value loss of $1 trillion as a result of increased costs and supply chain pressures stemming from the tariffs [3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Investor and consumer confidence has been shaken, leading to a cautious approach in capital investments and spending, which in turn has contributed to a slowdown in economic activity [3] - The likelihood of a recession in the U.S. has increased, with JPMorgan raising the probability of a recession in 2025 from 40% to 60%, and other indicators reflecting a similar trend [5] - The U.S. Treasury market has experienced significant sell-offs, with the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rising sharply, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. debt as a safe haven [9] Group 3: Dollar's International Standing - The tariffs are undermining the credibility of the U.S. and diminishing global demand for the dollar, particularly as countries like China may seek to reduce their dollar reserves in favor of alternatives like gold [8] - The dollar's dominance in global trade and finance is being challenged, with its share of global foreign exchange reserves at 58% and 64% of global debt denominated in dollars, raising concerns about its future stability [6][7] - The potential for a shift away from the dollar as the world's reserve currency is increasing, as countries may seek alternatives due to the perceived risks associated with U.S. economic policies and political actions [10]

Group 1 - France's strategy is to use fines instead of taxes, which has been promoted within the EU [2] - Macron criticized Trump's tariffs as "barbaric" and proposed a temporary halt to European investments in the US until clarifications are made [1][5] - The US has imposed a 20% tariff on the EU, alongside existing tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles [4] Group 2 - Macron predicts that the tariffs will weaken the US economy and make American businesses and citizens poorer [5] - Stellantis announced layoffs of 900 employees in the US due to the impact of the tariffs, indicating a direct consequence of the trade policies [6] - The EU is considering retaliatory measures against US tech companies and may utilize the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) to impose tariffs and restrictions [1][7] Group 3 - The EU's trade deficit with the US was €155.8 billion (approximately $168.6 billion) in goods, while the US had a surplus of €104 billion (approximately $112.6 billion) in services [4] - The ACI allows the EU to impose counter-sanctions against economic coercion, including trade and service restrictions [7][8] - France has been effective in pushing for fines against US tech giants, reflecting a strategic shift in how the EU addresses trade imbalances [8]

Group 1: Core Views - The valuation of Chinese technology assets has rapidly recovered and then retreated, with the Hang Seng Technology Index reaching a peak increase of 39% this year [1] - The narrative around the rise of AI in China has become a consensus, shifting investor focus to earnings expectations, CAPEX growth, and the efficiency improvements brought by AI applications [1] - The company maintains an optimistic outlook for Chinese technology assets, anticipating technical advancements and application implementations to drive upward revisions in earnings forecasts [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The Hang Seng Technology Index may enter a short-term consolidation phase after a rapid valuation increase, with potential upward drivers including advancements from major model vendors and strong earnings guidance from leading internet and cloud companies [1] - The valuation increase in the Hang Seng Technology Index may spill over into investment opportunities in innovative pharmaceuticals and AI+ healthcare sectors [1] - The recent decline in the Hang Seng Technology Index presents a mid-term buying opportunity [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced a decline of 11.6% since March 19 due to factors such as stock placements and impending "reciprocal tariffs," but the overall reversal trend for the year remains intact [3] - Historical peaks in stock placements typically occur during periods of ample liquidity and relatively high valuations, suggesting that current market conditions may support stock prices in the medium to long term [3] - The dynamic PE ratios for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index are currently at 10.3x and 17.5x, respectively, indicating significant value compared to historical levels [3] Group 4: Sector Performance - The healthcare sector is expected to show signs of demand or performance recovery in Q1 2025, driven by policy optimization and AI empowerment, leading to a valuation reassessment [8] - The computer industry is projected to see steady revenue growth in Q1 2025, with particular strength in computing power, AI applications, and related sectors [10] - The agricultural chemicals sector is focusing on global expansion to counteract domestic pressures, with leading companies leveraging their integrated supply chains to enhance overseas market share [15]

Core Insights - The report indicates that after a strong start to the year, the Hong Kong stock market has entered a period of consolidation, with the technology and internet sectors being the main contributors to the earlier gains [2][3] - Despite the recent slowdown, the overall market remains active, with average daily trading volumes exceeding HKD 200 billion, significantly higher than the historical average of around HKD 1000 billion over the past decade [5][6] - The report highlights that foreign capital has been optimistic about the Hong Kong market, with significant inflows into technology and consumer sectors, driven by the performance of the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index [8][11] Market Performance - The technology sector has outperformed the Hang Seng Index, with notable increases of 32.0% in information technology, 27.5% in discretionary consumption, and 18.7% in healthcare [3][4] - High-dividend sectors such as materials, energy, and finance have seen slight rebounds during the recent market fluctuations [3] Capital Flows - Southbound capital has accelerated its inflow into the Hong Kong market since Q4 2024, influenced by declining domestic risk-free interest rates and improved industry expectations, particularly in AI-related companies [11] - The report notes a shift in domestic investors' preferences from high-dividend sectors to technology and consumer industries, reflecting a growing interest in growth potential [11] Earnings and Valuation - Recent earnings reports from major technology companies have exceeded market expectations, with many planning to increase capital expenditures in computing and AI [12][14] - As investor expectations adjust and valuations recover to historical averages, there is increasing divergence in views regarding corporate earnings and future growth potential [14] Investment Strategy - The report recommends maintaining a "barbell" investment strategy, focusing on both technology and hardware sectors for revaluation opportunities while also holding stable high-dividend sectors for reliable income [15]

Group 1: International Trade and Economic Relations - The Chinese government is concerned about the U.S. imposing tariffs on imports, particularly regarding the opioid crisis and the 301 investigation, emphasizing the need for stable Sino-U.S. trade relations [1][3] - U.S. President Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars, effective April 2, stating that cars manufactured in the U.S. would be exempt from these tariffs [10] Group 2: Domestic Economic Policies - The Chinese government is promoting the development of international consumption center cities, focusing on modern trade circulation systems, retail innovation, and high-quality wholesale industry development [2][4] - Measures include optimizing entry policies for foreign personnel, expanding visa-free access, and enhancing payment services for international consumers [4] Group 3: Corporate Developments - GAC Group clarified that it has not engaged in any discussions regarding the acquisition of Evergrande Auto's Nansha factory, countering rumors circulating online [5] - Evergrande Auto announced that it is unaware of any reasons for the recent increase in its stock price following a bankruptcy filing for one of its subsidiaries [6][7] - Greentown China announced a leadership change, with Zhang Yadong resigning as chairman and Liu Chengyun appointed as the new chairman [8] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock markets experienced a collective decline, with the Nasdaq dropping 2.04%, marking its largest single-day drop since March 11, and major tech stocks like Tesla and Nvidia falling over 5% [9]

小米、比亚迪大战 ChinaJoy 今年 ChinaJoy，比亚迪和网易、动视暴雪同一展区设置了一个超大展台，台上展示了几辆贴上装饰 图案的 "痛车"，和一辆售价 109.8 万起的仰望 U8，主持人卖力解说大屏上用比亚迪车机操作的王者 荣耀比赛，但台下观众寥寥、非常冷清。 小米、比亚迪大战 ChinaJoy 消费者放弃金饰，改买金条 本田日产三菱拟联盟，应对销量下滑挑战 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 依旧待在手机展区的小米几乎搬了家品牌体验店过来，没做什么二次元相关活动，仅凭两辆 SU7 的 实车吸引一些年轻人驻足。广汽本田做的功课最足，不仅爆改的 "痛车" 更加二次元，还设置了多个 游戏体验环节，在参展三家车企里人气最旺。 在这个依然以游戏为主题、但越来越泛娱乐化的展会，不光车企，许多消费、互联网公司都想借机贴 近一部分年轻消费者。老凤祥在万代展区展出了跟高达联名的 999 足金、全球限量 10 件、售价 88 万 黄金是今年收益表现最佳的大类资产之一，国际金价在 3 月、5 月和 7 月连续创新高。世界黄金协会 在 7 月的一份报告里说，金价主要受益于央行连续增持、亚洲投资者的 ...

特斯拉毛利率最好别再跌了 LVMH 二季度业绩会提了 48 次中国 多地商贷利率逼近公积金 日本和中国台湾遭遇新一轮新冠疫情 最大规模基本收入研究结果出炉 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 特斯拉毛利率最好别再跌了 最巅峰的时候，特斯拉是汽车行业利润率最高的公司，一度超过了劳斯莱斯，这让它在必要时可以牺牲 利润换销量。 现在特斯拉已经降得快没多少利润空间了。管理层在业绩会上只提了一次 "利润率"，是 CFO Vaibhav Taneja 在开场发言环节讲的，"总体而言，我们汽车利润率环比持平"。 今年二季度，特斯拉扣除积分收入后的汽车销售毛利率约为 14.6%、为近五年新低。如果再扣掉租赁业 务，纯汽车销售毛利率进一步降至 13.86%。前两天发二季报的 "传统汽车公司" 通用汽车，大约是 12.2% 的汽车销售毛利率，比高点少了一半多。 如果我们再苛刻一点，把分别占收入 3.5% 和 1.4% 的积分和利息收入去掉，特斯拉二季度极端假设下的 营业利润率还有大约 1.4%（财报口径是 6.3%）。 业绩发布后，特斯拉股价重挫 12%。 二季度总收入 255 亿美元，其中汽车销售收入（不含 ...