智通财经6月30日电，美股稳定币概念股Circle夜盘短线下跌，现跌超4%，此前一度涨超3%。 ...

各位朋友中午好，我是帮主郑重。最近全球资本市场被一股"数字现金"热潮席卷，稳定币概念股像坐了火箭一样往上蹿，但我注意到一个有意思的现象 ——散户在疯狂追涨，基金却在偷偷撤离。这到底是怎么回事？今天咱们就来好好唠唠。 首先得搞清楚，这个让市场疯狂的"稳定币"到底是啥。简单来说，它就像是加密货币世界的"定海神针"，通过锚定美元、黄金这些稳定资产，让价格不再 像比特币那样上蹿下跳。比如Circle公司发行的USDC，每一枚都对应着银行里实实在在的美元储备，这就解决了传统加密货币波动太大的痛点。 最近的市场有多疯狂呢？Circle作为美股稳定币第一股，6月初上市时发行价31美元，短短三周就涨到263美元，涨幅接近750%，市值一度超过470亿美 元。韩国的Kakao Pay更夸张，一个月内股价翻了三倍，但就在散户蜂拥而入的时候，全球基金却在抛售，主力资金净流出超过40亿韩元。这种"冰火两重 天"的景象，让我想起了当年元宇宙概念炒作时的场景——散户追得热火朝天，机构却在悄悄撤退。 为啥会出现这种分化？咱们先看看股价暴涨的逻辑。首先是政策东风，美国参议院刚通过《GENIUS法案》，要求稳定币必须100%用美元或美债储备， ...

Group 1 - The surge in stablecoin popularity has led to significant stock price increases for related emerging technology companies, with Circle's stock rising approximately 500% since its New York listing three weeks ago [1] - Investors are showing caution as short positions in Circle continue to rise, indicating a potential concern over the sustainability of the stock's rapid increase [1] - In South Korea, both global and local funds are selling Kakaopay Corp. shares, which have doubled in price over the past month, contrasting with the enthusiasm of retail investors [1][3] Group 2 - The development momentum of stablecoins is strong, with legislative progress in the U.S. Senate and Hong Kong, and South Korea's commitment to allowing local companies to issue such tokens [3] - Circle's market capitalization has surpassed $40 billion, exceeding that of more than half of the companies in the S&P 500 index, and its USDC is the second-largest stablecoin by market share [3] - Kakaopay's stock has outperformed all peers in the FTSE Global Fintech and Blockchain Index, with a price increase nearly double that of Robinhood [3][4] Group 3 - Analysts from Citigroup have rated Kakaopay as a "sell," citing concerns over its high valuation despite the long-term potential of the stablecoin opportunity [4] - The rise in stablecoin-related stocks is influencing the stock prices of Kakao and its competitor Naver, as well as U.S. counterparts like Coinbase [4] Group 4 - Despite strong support from leaders like Trump and Lee Jae-myung, risks remain, with warnings from the Bank of Korea about the potential impact of stablecoin adoption on effective monetary policy [5] - The International Bank for Settlements has expressed uncertainty about the future of stablecoins, highlighting concerns over high valuations in related stocks [5] - Kakaopay's stock experienced a 10% drop after a brief trading halt, as regulators advised caution amid rapid price increases [5]

2025 年 06 月 30 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：66 分（较热） 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 66 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 1、储存主题：据《科创板日报》报道，继韩系两大存储 原厂先后放出 DDR4 停产时间，美光确定已向客户发出信件通 知 DDR4 将停产，预计未来 2~3 个季度陆续停止出货。Trend Force 数据显示，5 月 DDR4 单月涨幅 53%，创 2017 年以来最 大涨幅。相关标的：江波龙（ 301308 ）、兆易创新 （603586） 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措施， 鉴于市场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁令的期限自本 决定生效之日起再延长三个月，适用于刚果所有源自采矿的 钴 出 口 。 相 关 标 的 ： 华 友 钴 业 （ 603799 ） 、 天 齐 锂 ...

盘前要闻 1、中方就美关税谈判再发警告：反对牺牲中方利益，呼吁站在正义一边 类型：宏观 情绪影响：中性 商务部新闻发言人表示，中方乐见各方通过平等磋商解决与美方经贸分歧，但坚决反对任何一方以牺牲 中方利益为代价达成交易，换取所谓关税减免。有评论指出，这是中国商务部对任何与美国达成损害中 国利益贸易协议的国家发出的严厉警告。 2、国常会定调！强化企业科技创新主体地位，深化科技成果转化机制改革 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 上周五晚间国常会提出，加快推进高水平科技自立自强，要围绕"补短板、锻长板"加大科技攻关力度， 巩固和提升优势领域领先地位，加快突破关键核心技术，牢牢把握发展主动权，要切实将科技成果转化 为现实生产力。 3、遏制过度炒作！沪深交易所同步出台新规，ST股涨跌停板放宽至10% 类型：市场 情绪影响：正面 沪深交易所同步公告称，拟将各自主板风险警示股票价格涨跌幅限制比例由5%调整为10%。相关制度 调整有利于股票在更大价格空间消化利好或利空因素。从科创板、创业板运行实践来看，调整价格涨跌 幅限制比例有望缓解主板风险警示股票过度波动，减少连续涨停或跌停现象。 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 中国人民银行货币政 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the market is experiencing a short-term upward breakthrough due to several factors, including the stabilization of capital market expectations and the influx of long-term funds, particularly from insurance companies [1][2] - The recent geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a recovery in global risk appetite, alongside expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has contributed to the market's positive momentum [2][5] - The index's breakthrough has directly boosted risk appetite, resulting in increased trading activity, particularly in small-cap stocks and technology growth sectors [2][8] Group 2 - The article suggests that multiple positive factors are expected to converge between 2026 and 2027, potentially marking a core bull market phase, although the current market still shows signs of weakness [5][6] - The overall economic outlook remains weak, with concerns about macroeconomic support and limited structural improvements, indicating that the market is not yet ready for a bull market [6][8] - The short-term market may still experience speculative index rallies, but significant upward trends are anticipated to begin in late 2025 [8] Group 3 - The article identifies specific sectors with high elasticity for investment opportunities, including stablecoins, national defense, and military industries, as well as the overseas AI computing power industry [8] - High-dividend assets are expected to undergo a revaluation in the medium term, with a focus on banking stocks, which may face adjustment pressure due to excessive short-term attention [8] - The article maintains a structural bullish outlook for A-shares, emphasizing the reliance on breakthroughs in technology industries and highlighting three asset categories closely related to China's strategic opportunities: gold, rare earths, and national defense [8]

Group 1 - Nike's stock rose over 10% in pre-market trading due to its fourth-quarter revenue exceeding expectations [1] - Circle, the first publicly traded stablecoin company, saw its stock increase by nearly 3% [1] Group 2 - Gold stocks experienced a general decline, with Harmony Gold and Golden Valley both dropping over 3% [1]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a pullback after three consecutive days of gains, with 3,609 stocks declining and 72 stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - The trading volume in the market decreased by 16.3 billion compared to the previous day, indicating a lack of strong buying momentum [2] - The market is currently facing a situation where high-performing stocks are losing their upward momentum, impacting overall market sentiment [2] Group 2 - The market is pricing in expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has led to a decline in the US dollar index [4][7] - Despite the expectation of a rate cut, gold prices have not risen, while copper has shown significant movement, indicating a potential shift in market focus [7][8] - The current market environment suggests a "slow bull" pattern, with limited downside and upside potential, reflecting a cautious outlook [8] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite Index showed signs of a potential top formation, with key support levels identified at 3,450 and 3,430 [11] - The upcoming A50 futures settlement and options expiration are expected to contribute to market volatility [3]

Market Overview - The market experienced a broad decline after a previous day of enthusiasm, leading to discussions about the differences between past market cycles, particularly the short-lived bull market of September 24 and the conditions surrounding June 24 [1][3] - The banking sector has shown resilience, achieving nine consecutive days of gains, indicating a potential localized bull market despite overall market fluctuations [1][3] Market Sentiment - The notion that a bear market has begun due to a drop in the securities sector is questioned, suggesting that market dynamics are more complex and that understanding market rhythm is crucial for profitability [3][5] - The presence of a significant number of stocks still performing well, particularly in sectors like solid-state batteries and military technology, indicates that the market is not uniformly weak [5][6] Trading Data - Today's trading data shows a buy volume of 437, while sell volume was 443, indicating a slight imbalance but not a definitive trend towards a bear market [4] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up was 46, while the limit down was only 12, suggesting that bullish sentiment remains in certain sectors [4][6] Sector Analysis - The RWA (Real World Assets) theme has emerged, linked to the concept of tokenization, reflecting market interest in blockchain-related assets [5][6] - The solid-state battery sector has seen significant activity, with multiple stocks reaching their daily limit up, indicating strong investor interest and potential for growth [5][6] Conclusion - Overall, while there are signs of market weakness, particularly in the securities sector, there are also strong performances in specific industries, suggesting a more nuanced market environment where localized bull trends may still exist [1][3][5]

Core Insights - The launch of the "Cross-Border Payment Link" marks a significant advancement in cross-border payment systems, enabling real-time transactions between mainland China and Hong Kong in both Renminbi and Hong Kong Dollar [1][2] - The system leverages blockchain technology to reduce transaction times from 1-5 working days to seconds and cut fees by 80%, enhancing the efficiency of cross-border payments [2] - The regulatory framework for stablecoins is evolving, with Hong Kong's new regulations set to take effect, requiring stablecoin issuers to maintain a 1:1 reserve and undergo quarterly audits [4][6] Group 1: Cross-Border Payment Link - The "Cross-Border Payment Link" officially launched on June 22, 2025, connecting the mainland's interbank payment system with Hong Kong's Fast Payment System [1] - Initial use cases include tuition payments, medical fees, and salary disbursements, with transaction limits increased from 10,000 to 100,000 [2] - This infrastructure supports the internationalization of the Renminbi and enhances financial integration in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [2] Group 2: Stablecoin Development - The introduction of the "Cross-Border Payment Link" presents a historic opportunity for stablecoins, allowing settlement times to be reduced to minutes [4] - Hong Kong's new stablecoin regulations will require issuers to hold at least 80% of their reserves in cash and government bonds, limiting high-risk assets [6] - Major companies like JD.com and Ant Group have applied for licenses, indicating a trend towards compliant stablecoins being integrated into the "Cross-Border Payment Link" [4] Group 3: Market Response and Growth - The global stablecoin market is projected to exceed $1.8 trillion, reflecting a 120% increase from 2024, driven by regulatory compliance [6] - USDC's market share has risen to 42%, positioning it as a preferred stablecoin for cross-border payments [6] - Companies such as Standard Chartered and Zhenrong Bank are actively participating in stablecoin sandbox tests, exploring asset custody models [4][6] Group 4: Related Companies - Sifang Jingchuang is the only A-share company involved in the central bank's mBridge project, with a projected 300% increase in orders by 2025 [8] - Changliang Technology has deep ties with the Vietnamese central bank, with overseas revenue exceeding 25% and recent wins in cross-border payment projects [9] - New Morning Technology reported a 200% year-on-year increase in cross-border payment revenue in Q1 2025, providing stablecoin custody solutions for Standard Chartered [10] - JD Group's subsidiary is in the second phase of Hong Kong's stablecoin sandbox testing, aiming to launch a Hong Kong Dollar/US Dollar stablecoin within the year [11]