【重点关注】 ·《中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明》发布中美就24%关税继续暂停等达成共识 ·财政部等三部门发布个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案 ·九部门：8类符合条件的服务业经营主体贷款可享贴息 【国内要闻】 ·中美双发发布《中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明》。美国将继续修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令 中规定的对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品）加征从价关税的实施，自2025年8 月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天，同时保留按该行政令规定对这些商品加征的剩余10%的关税。 ·国务院关税税则委员会称，自2025年8月12日12时01分起，调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于 美国的进口商品加征关税的公告》（税委会公告2025年第4号）规定的加征关税措施，在90天内继续暂 停实施24%的对美加征关税税率，保留10%的对美加征关税税率。 ·财政部等三部门发布《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》。方案提出，2025年9月1日至2026年8月 31日期间，居民个人使用贷款经办机构发放的个人消费贷款（不含信用卡业务）中实际用于消费，且贷 款经办机构可通过贷款发放账户等识别借款人相关消费交 ...

Group 1 - The overall shareholding ratio of southbound funds in Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks is 18.42%, with 224 stocks having a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% [1] - As of August 8, southbound funds held a total of 4,616.99 million shares, accounting for 18.42% of the total share capital of the stocks, with a market value of 55,983.79 billion HKD, representing 13.97% of the total market value [1] - The highest shareholding ratio by southbound funds is in China Telecom, with 1,036.75 million shares held, representing 74.70% of the issued shares [2] Group 2 - Southbound funds with a shareholding ratio exceeding 20% are mainly concentrated in the healthcare, financial, and industrial sectors, with 45, 33, and 33 stocks respectively [2] - Among the stocks with a shareholding ratio over 20%, 124 are AH concept stocks, making up 55.36% of that group [1] - The stocks with high southbound fund holdings include China Telecom, Green Power Environmental, and China Shenhua, with shareholding ratios of 74.70%, 70.03%, and 68.18% respectively [2][3]

Trade Agreements and Tariffs - As of August 1, the U.S. has established a three-tier tariff system, with effective tariffs at 7.9% compared to a theoretical rate of 18.3%[1][2][15]. - The U.S. has reached trade agreements or suspensions with nine economies, covering 49.7% of its import scale, with Germany at 4.6%, Japan at 4.2%, and South Korea at 3.6%[1][12]. - The U.S. tariff revenue for Q2 2025 reached $64 billion, a 3.6 times increase from the previous year, with total imports at $819.4 billion[1][15]. Investment Commitments - The EU must increase its annual investment in the U.S. by 2.6 times to meet its commitment of $600 billion over three years, which is challenging due to reliance on private sector funding[3][20]. - Japan's commitment of $550 billion requires an annual investment of $1.833 billion, which is 4.7 times the 2024 investment flow[3][22]. - South Korea's $350 billion commitment represents 19% of its GDP and 53% of its annual budget, necessitating an eightfold increase in annual FDI to the U.S.[3][23]. Long-term Tariff Risks - U.S. tariff income has reached $125.6 billion in 2025, 2.3 times higher than in 2024, with projections of $300 billion by the end of 2025[4][34]. - The U.S. is shifting its tariff strategy from "exchange rate adjustment" to "fiscal control" to manage trade deficits, indicating a long-term reliance on tariffs as a negotiation tool[4][38]. - The U.S. may continue to impose secondary tariffs on countries that import Russian oil, with potential rates reaching 100%[4][42].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing adjustments, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index down by 0.5% as of 13:55 [1] - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) continues to attract capital, with a net subscription of 25 million units after three consecutive days of net inflow [1] - Huatai Securities indicates that market risk appetite is expected to persist into August, although strong opposing assets may limit relative returns for high dividend sectors [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index consists of 50 liquid stocks within the Hong Kong Stock Connect that have a history of continuous dividends, moderate payout ratios, and low volatility, with the top three sectors being finance, energy, and real estate, accounting for nearly 60% [1] - The current dividend yield of the index is approximately 5.8% [1] - The management fee for the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) is only 0.15% per year, providing a low-cost option for investors to gain exposure to the high dividend sector in Hong Kong stocks [1]

Core Insights - Germany's industrial output decreased by 1.9% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year in June 2025, reaching its lowest level since May 2020 [1] - The pharmaceutical sector significantly contributed to this decline, with an 11% month-on-month drop in output [1] - Other sectors such as machinery manufacturing and food production also performed poorly, with decreases of 5.3% and 6.3% respectively [1] - In contrast, the construction sector saw a month-on-month increase of 0.7%, and the energy sector grew by 3.1% [1] Industry Performance - The second quarter of 2025 recorded a 1.0% month-on-month decline in industrial output, attributed partly to a "pre-order effect" from businesses responding to earlier U.S. tariff announcements [1] - The negative impact of U.S. tariffs is expected to continue affecting the German industrial economy, hindering prospects for sustained recovery in the third quarter [1] - Additionally, June 2025 saw a month-on-month decline in new industrial orders in Germany, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [1] - The German Federal Bank has warned that the high tariffs imposed by the U.S. will exert significant pressure on the German economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing fluctuations, with the dividend sector showing resilience, particularly the Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index, which has seen a slight increase of 0.2% as of 11:00 AM [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng High Dividend Low Volatility Index includes 50 stocks with good liquidity, consistent dividends, moderate payout ratios, and low volatility, with the top three sectors being finance, energy, and real estate, accounting for nearly 60% of the index [1] - The index currently has a dividend yield of approximately 5.8% [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) has attracted significant capital, with over 1.5 billion yuan net inflow in the past month, bringing its total size to over 4 billion yuan, making it the largest among similar ETFs [1] - Huatai Securities indicates that the trend of market risk appetite is expected to continue into August, suggesting that while high dividend sectors may lack relative returns, some stable and potential high dividend stocks have become attractive due to their current yield value [1] Group 3: Cost Efficiency - The Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159545) offers one of the lowest management fees in the ETF market at 0.15% per year, facilitating low-cost investment in high dividend assets in the Hong Kong stock market [1]

8月5日，据达飞集团消息，达飞集团与道达尔能源近期签署协议，双方将各持股50%组建合资公司。据 介绍，这是航运公司首次与能源供应商合作建设运营液化天然气（LNG）加注设施。达飞与道达尔能 源的合资公司将在阿姆斯特丹-鹿特丹-安特卫普（ARA）地区提供一体化LNG加注供应服务。到2028 年，双方将联合部署并运营一艘2万立方米LNG加注船。根据新签署的长期协议，合资公司在2040年前 每年将最多向达飞供应36万吨LNG。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the EU has incurred losses exceeding 1 trillion euros (approximately 8.3 trillion RMB) due to the termination of energy cooperation and reduction of bilateral trade with Russia [1][3] - The trade volume between the EU and Russia has drastically decreased from 417 billion euros in 2013 to nearly zero, indicating significant profit loss for the EU [3] - The refusal to cooperate with Russia has negatively impacted the competitiveness of the EU economy, with natural gas prices being four to five times higher than those in the US, and electricity prices two to three times higher [3] Group 2 - The EU has agreed on a new round of sanctions against Russia, which targets key sectors including banking, energy, and military industries, and aims to continue pressure until the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [4] - Russia's presidential press secretary stated that the country will conduct a comprehensive assessment of the new EU sanctions to minimize negative impacts, emphasizing that such unilateral measures are illegal and opposed by Russia [4] - Each new round of sanctions is described as a double-edged sword, suggesting that they may also have adverse effects on the countries imposing them [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The path for the US to achieve multi - dimensional strategic goals through tariff policies is clear, using tariffs not only as a trade protection tool but also to serve broader economic and geopolitical interests [3][4][5]. - The poor non - farm payroll data has led to a sharp increase in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the Fed's monetary policy decision is facing a dilemma [6][7][8]. - The July Politburo meeting in China adjusted the direction and intensity of economic policy stimulus, focusing on optimizing the economic structure and implementing effective policies [10][11][12]. - In terms of major asset directions, the US dollar is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term, gold is supported by safe - haven sentiment, A - shares are expected to have accelerated sector rotation, and the bond market will focus on "new - old differentiation" [14][15][16]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Macroeconomic Observation 1.1 The Path for the US to Achieve Multi - Dimensional Strategic Goals with Tariffs is Clear - As the August 1 deadline for Trump's tariff policy approached, the US White House announced a series of adjusted "reciprocal tariffs" with most new rates taking effect on August 7, providing a negotiation window for countries without trade agreements [3]. - The US uses differentiated tariff policies to achieve goals such as obtaining large - scale investment, procurement commitments, and market opening from trading partners, and guiding the global industrial chain layout [4][5]. - The US uses tariff negotiations to force Southeast Asian countries to make "strategic choices" in the global supply chain, aiming to weaken their industrial chain connection with China [5]. 1.2 Non - farm Payrolls Disappoint, Fed Rate Cut Expectations Soar - Since April, the market's reaction to "reciprocal tariffs" has gradually diminished, and in August, the market's focus shifted to the Fed's rate - cut process [6]. - The sharp downward revision of non - farm payroll data on Friday led to a sharp increase in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the Fed's monetary policy decision is in a dilemma [6][7][8]. - Trump's acceptance of Fed Governor Kugler's resignation may further boost the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [9]. 1.3 The July Politburo Meeting: Optimize the Economic Structure and Implement Existing Policies - In the first half of 2025, China's economy showed strong resilience, and the Politburo meeting adjusted the description of the economic situation and the direction of policy stimulus [10]. - In the second half of 2025, policies should maintain macro - policy continuity, "implement and refine" effective policies, and focus on structural and supply - side issues such as "anti - involution" on the supply side and "releasing consumption potential" on the demand side [11][12]. 1.4 Major Asset Directions - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term due to concerns about the US economic recession and increased expectations of a Fed rate cut [14][15]. - Gold is expected to be supported by safe - haven sentiment in the short term and is in a bull market cycle in the long term [15]. - A - shares are expected to have accelerated sector rotation, and the valuation center is expected to rise due to policy and tax factors [15][16]. - The bond market will focus on "new - old differentiation" in the short term due to the tax policy change [16]. 2. Domestic Key Events and Important Economic Data - The Politburo meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, and promoting domestic and international double - circulation [17]. - The decision to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October was made, and it will study the formulation of the 15th Five - Year Plan [17]. - The interest income of newly - issued bonds will be subject to VAT starting from August 8, 2025 [17]. - The parenting subsidy policy was implemented, and the budget was about 90 billion yuan [17]. - The manufacturing PMI in July declined, and the non - manufacturing and composite PMIs also decreased [17]. - From January to June 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.8%, with different trends in different industries [17]. - Policies were introduced to promote investment, consumption, and the development of various industries, and measures were taken to "anti - involute" the market [17][18]. - The China - US tariff suspension period is expected to be extended, and China's trade with Central and Eastern European countries reached a record high in the first half of the year [18]. 3. Overseas Key Events and Important Economic Data - The Fed kept rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, but two voting members supported a rate cut, and Powell cooled market expectations of a September rate cut [19]. - US core PCE inflation heated up in June, and the second - quarter GDP growth rate exceeded expectations [19]. - The US made a series of tariff policy adjustments, including delaying the effective date, setting different tariff rates for different countries, and suspending the minimum tax - free treatment for low - value goods [20][21]. - The EU reached a trade agreement with the US, including a 15% tariff and a 60 - billion - dollar investment in the US [20]. - Other countries such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea also had important economic events and policy decisions [19][20][21]. 4. Next Week's Key Data/Events - Next week, important economic data will be released in China, the US, and the eurozone, including PMI, PPI, CPI, and unemployment data [22].

重要新闻提示 8月3日，2025年暑期档总票房（含预售）突破70亿元 三安光电（600703）：拟联合境外投资人以2.39亿美元收购Lumileds Holding B.V.100%股权 领益智造：深交所定于8月8日审核公司重组事项 今日提示 央行公开市场今日有4958亿元7天期逆回购到期 广东省自然资源厅《关于加快解决国有建设用地上不动产登记若干历史遗留问题的指导意见》今起实施 香港证券市场下调股票最低上落价位的第一阶段今日生效，适用证券包括股票、房地产投资信托基金、 股本权证、其他适用证券等 财经新闻 1. 据网络专业平台数据，截至8月3日21时57分，2025年暑期档（6月—8月）总票房（含预售）突破70亿 元，《南京照相馆》《长安的荔枝》《侏罗纪世界：重生》暂列票房榜前三位。截至8月3日21时21分， 单日电影票房突破3.75亿元，刷新2025年暑期档单日大盘票房新高。 2. 中国工商银行微信公众号8月3日消息，日前，工商银行发布《关于个人消费贷款与服务业经营主体贷 款贴息工作的公告》表示，正在依法依规、积极有序推进个人消费贷款与服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策 的组织实施工作。工商银行将坚持市场化、法治化 ...