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纽约铜期货暴跌18%,美股铜矿概念股几乎全线溃败,美国总统特朗普将精炼铜排除在铜关税之外
news flash· 2025-07-30 20:51
Group 1 - COMEX copper futures experienced a significant decline of 18.03%, closing at $4.6115 per pound [1] - The copper price initially surged to a daily high of $5.83 following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the White House's announcement regarding tariff exemptions, before plummeting below $4.80 and hitting a low of $4.5030 [1] - The U.S. copper index ETF fell by 19.31%, while copper mining ETFs decreased by 2.9% [1] Group 2 - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) shares dropped by 9.46%, with a cumulative decline of 13% over the last five trading days [1] - Hudbay Minerals saw a decline of 7%, and Southern Copper Corporation's shares fell by 6.33% [1]
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250729
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:08
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as Sino - US economic and trade talks, policy changes, and geopolitical events. Different commodities show various trends, including wide - range oscillations, declines, and rebounds [6][11][12]. - For specific commodities, glass may experience a resistive decline, and the adjustment may not end; carbonated lithium is in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual reduction and suspension of production in mines; gold is oscillating and falling, while silver is breaking through and rising, etc. [6][8][9][12] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 International and Domestic News - Sino - US economic and trade talks began in Stockholm, Sweden. China hopes to promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations through dialogue and cooperation [6]. - China introduced a child - rearing subsidy policy, providing 3,600 yuan per child per year for infants under 3 years old [18]. - Trump shortened the deadline for reaching an agreement with Russia, causing crude oil prices to rise nearly 3% during intraday trading [19]. - The US Treasury's borrowing forecast for the third quarter exceeded one trillion, an 82% increase, and the auction of 5 - year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak [21]. - Chile expects to obtain a tariff exemption from Trump, causing copper prices in New York to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to generally decline [21]. - Tesla placed a $16.5 billion chip order with Samsung [21]. 3.2 Commodity Research 3.2.1 Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is oscillating and falling, and silver is breaking through and rising. The trend intensity of gold is - 1, and that of silver is 0 [12][15][20]. - **Copper**: The rise of the US dollar exerts pressure on copper prices, and the trend intensity is 0 [12][22][24]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is oscillating and weakening, and the trend intensity is - 1 [12][25][27]. - **Lead**: The price of lead is oscillating due to the lack of a clear driving force, and the trend intensity is 0 [12][28][29]. - **Tin**: Tin is oscillating within a range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [12][31][34]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is oscillating at a high level, alumina's sentiment is declining, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [12][35][37]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The direction of nickel is determined by macro - expectations, and its fundamentals limit its elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and its real - world situation needs to be repaired. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [12][38][42]. - **Carbonated Lithium**: Carbonated lithium is in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the reduction and suspension of production in Jiangxi mines. The trend intensity is 0 [9][12][43]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon should pay attention to today's sentiment changes, and polysilicon should focus on today's market information. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [12][47][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, iron ore is oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [12][51]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by the sector's market resonance and are oscillating weakly. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [12][54][57]. - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are in a weak oscillation due to the game between funds and reality. The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are both 0 [12][58][60]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation as sentiment is realized. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0 [12][61][64]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption of steam coal is recovering, and it is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend intensity is 0 [12][66][69]. 3.2.3 Others - **Glass**: Short - term short - chasing for glass needs to be cautious, and the decline adjustment has not ended. It may experience a resistive decline in the later stage [6][8]. - **Log**: Logs are oscillating repeatedly [70].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250729
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 03:02
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides daily research and analysis on various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding price trends and trading suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate downward [2][6] - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise [2][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold -1, Silver 0 [11] Base Metals - **Copper**: The rising US dollar exerts pressure on prices [13] - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate weakly [16] - **Lead**: Lacks clear driving force, prices oscillate [19] - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate within a range [22] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level [26] - **Alumina**: Market sentiment declines [26] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [26] - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, fundamentals limit the elasticity [29] - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [29] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper 0, Zinc -1, Lead 0, Tin -1, Aluminum 0, Alumina 0, Cast Aluminum Alloy 0, Nickel 0, Stainless Steel 0 [15][18][20] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Expected to oscillate widely, pay attention to the progress of production cuts in Jiangxi mines [34] - **Industrial Silicon**: Pay attention to today's sentiment changes [38] - **Polysilicon**: Pay attention to today's market information [39] - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macroeconomic expectations, expected to oscillate strongly [42] - **Rebar**: Weakly oscillates due to sector - wide market resonance [45] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Weakly oscillates due to sector - wide market resonance [46] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Weakly oscillates as funds compete with the real - world situation [49] - **Manganese Silicide**: Weakly oscillates as funds compete with the real - world situation [49] - **Coke**: Market sentiment is realized, expected to oscillate widely [53] - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment is realized, expected to oscillate widely [54] - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, expected to oscillate and stabilize [57] - **P - Xylene**: The unilateral trend is weak [2] - **PTA**: Weak, conduct basis reverse arbitrage and calendar spread positive arbitrage [2] - **MEG**: The trend turns weak, conduct calendar spread reverse arbitrage [2] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate weakly [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under pressure and expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: Crude oil is strong, cracking continues to weaken [2] - **LLDPE**: Expected to oscillate weakly [2] - **PP**: Spot prices decline, trading is light [2] - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to delivery pressure [2] - **Pulp**: Expected to oscillate weakly [2] - **Glass**: The price of raw sheets is stable [2] - **Methanol**: Under short - term pressure and expected to oscillate [2] - **Urea**: Weakly operates in the short term [2] - **Styrene**: Compress profit margins [2] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5] - **PVC**: Weak in the short term [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Rebounds slightly at night, may turn strong in the short term [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rises in the short term, the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the overseas market is temporarily stable [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Carbonate Lithium 0, Industrial Silicon 0, Polysilicon 1, Iron Ore 0, Rebar 0, Hot - Rolled Coil 0, Silicon Ferrosilicon 0, Manganese Silicide 0, Coke 0, Coking Coal 0, Steam Coal 0 [36][41][42] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The short - term rise has reached its limit, beware of a decline in sentiment [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to oscillate within a range, pay attention to China - US trade progress [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Adjusts and oscillates [5] - **Soybean No.1**: Adjusts and oscillates [5] - **Sugar**: Ranges and consolidates [5] - **Cotton**: High basis and concerns about tight supply continue to support futures prices [5] - **Eggs**: Spot prices turn weak [5] - **Hogs**: Strong in the real - world situation but weak in expectations, conduct reverse arbitrage [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Not provided for agricultural products Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions and 10 - 12 reverse spreads [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Sentiment declines, weakly oscillates with increased volatility [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Sentiment declines, weakly oscillates with increased volatility [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at a low level, lacks upward momentum [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Expected to oscillate strongly [5] - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [60] - **Trend Intensity**: Not provided for these commodities
智利预计能豁免于特朗普关税,纽约铜跌超6%,铜矿概念股普跌
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-07-28 16:11
所以Marcel希望,今天在华盛顿开始的谈判中,也能把铜纳入谈判范围,否则就没意义了。因为智利对美国出口的商品中,超过 一半是铜和木材,如果这些被排除在谈判成果之外,那这个协议对智利没什么好处。 同时,Marcel明确否定了对美国产品加征报复性关税的可能性。他强调,加关税最终是让自己国家的消费者买单,他不想惩罚 智利的老百姓。 受Marcel发言影响,COMEX铜期货短线跳水,日内整体跌幅迅速扩大至超6%,随后跌幅砍半。美股铜矿概念股也普跌, McEwen盘中跌超6%,自由港(FCX)盘初跌超5%。 纽约铜盘中跌超6%,因智利财长预计将获得美国铜关税豁免,而且智利不会报复美国关税。 7月28日周一,智利财政部长Mario Marcel就与美国正在进行的关税谈判发表了讲话。此次谈判有两个部分可能会影响智利,一 个是普遍性的关税,就是对很多国家都一样收税。另一个是特别对铜征收50%的高关税,但目前细节还不清楚。 Marcel认为有希望把铜排除在高关税之外,因为在跟其他国家的类似谈判中,美国是愿意为原材料(比如钢铁、铜)单独"开绿 灯"谈条件的。Marcel举例称,英国和美国的协议里,钢铁就是特别谈的,印度尼西亚和 ...
纽约铜跌超6%,铜矿概念股普跌,智利预计能豁免于特朗普关税
news flash· 2025-07-28 14:35
Group 1 - COMEX copper futures experienced a sharp decline, with an intraday drop of 6.2%, settling at $5.426 after reaching a historical high of $5.957 [1] - Copper mining stocks saw widespread declines, with McEwen down 6.1%, Freeport (FCX) dropping over 5%, and the U.S. Copper Index ETF falling by 3.4% [1] - Other notable declines included HBM down 3.3%, Ero Copper down 3%, copper mining ETFs down 2.2%, BHP ADR down 2.2%, Rio Tinto ADR down 1.8%, Lundin Mining ADR down 1.8%, Vale ADR down 1.8%, and Southern Copper down 0.3% [1]
全球市场导读刊物
2025-08-18 01:00
Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Macro Economy and Real Estate Market - **Company**: Goldman Sachs (GS) Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Mixed Economic Data for May**: - Fixed asset investment growth was only 3.7%, below the expected 4.0% - Industrial value-added growth was 5.8%, slightly below the expected 6.0% - Retail sales of consumer goods grew strongly by 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9% [2][3] 2. **Decline in Urban Housing Demand**: - GS revised the forecast for urban housing demand, estimating it will remain below 5 million units annually, a 75% decrease from the peak of 20 million units in 2017 - Current housing prices are still declining, indicating the real estate market has not yet bottomed out [3][4] 3. **Limited Impact of Export Front-Loading**: - Anticipated "reciprocal" tariffs led to front-loading of exports, with an estimated 5% increase in overall exports in March - The impact on exports for the second half of the year is expected to be limited to 1 percentage point, suggesting that trade surpluses will remain strong [5][4] 4. **Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth**: - May saw a slowdown in fiscal operations, with budgetary income growth at only 0.1%, significantly lower than April's 1.9% - Fiscal expenditure growth decreased from 5.8% in April to 2.6%, indicating that fiscal stimulus has not significantly strengthened [11][12] 5. **Real Estate Revenue Weakness**: - Land transfer revenue fell by 14.2% year-on-year, a stark contrast to April's growth of 3.9% - Budgetary real estate-related tax revenue decreased by 8.6%, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate market [11][12] 6. **Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Prices**: - Brent crude oil prices rose to nearly $80 per barrel due to escalating tensions in Iran, with a geopolitical risk premium of about $12 - Two scenarios for oil price increases were outlined, with potential peaks of $90 and $110 per barrel under different supply disruption scenarios [26][28] 7. **Copper Demand Driven by AI**: - AI-driven data center expansion is expected to become a new growth driver for copper demand, particularly in power distribution and cooling systems - Strong capital expenditure expectations for AI-related investments are anticipated to sustain demand for copper-intensive components [32][34] 8. **Modern Dairy Industry Forecast**: - Modern Dairy, a joint venture of Mengniu, expects a net loss of RMB 800-1,000 million in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than last year's loss of RMB 207 million - The core operations remain resilient, with EBITDA expected to remain stable due to lower raw milk sales costs [38][39] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Fiscal Space for Expansion**: Despite current economic growth exceeding expectations, GS anticipates further fiscal expansion in the second half of the year to counter deflationary pressures and boost confidence [16][18] - **Market Sentiment and Currency Dynamics**: The report highlights a divergence in safe-haven currencies, with the dollar and Swiss franc performing strongly while Asian low-yield currencies face pressure [16][18] - **Potential for Future Trade Weakness**: High-frequency transport data indicates a potential weakening of Chinese exports to the U.S., particularly in container traffic, which may reflect the impact of new tariffs [35][37]
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250718
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:48
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by various factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and supply - demand dynamics in different industries. For example, the potential change in the 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue between the US and China is worth attention [7]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to move within a range. For instance, gold is expected to oscillate upward, while tin's price is weakening [14][35]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fentanyl Issue - Trump believes China will soon sentence fentanyl traffickers to death and is optimistic about reaching an agreement on illegal drugs with China. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that the fentanyl problem is the US's own issue, and the US's imposition of tariffs on fentanyl has damaged Sino - US cooperation in the anti - drug field. The 20% tariff on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl issue remains in effect, and whether it will change is worthy of attention [7]. 3.2 Commodity Recommendations by the Director - **Bean Meal**: Since mid - July, the domestic bean meal futures have stopped falling earlier than US soybeans and broken through the technical resistance level. The reasons are the strong sentiment in the domestic commodity market and the low - valuation advantage of bean meal. Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, there are no additional negative impacts. Once the US soybean price recovers, the bean meal price will break through. After the current rally, there is a risk of a pullback, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals such as the trade agreement, US soybean weather, and the August USDA report [8][9]. - **Caustic Soda**: In the short term, the supply and demand of the caustic soda market have not changed much, with sufficient supply and increased shipments to major downstream industries. The spot has no upward momentum, and the futures have been weak in the past two days. In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, and new capacity of 1.1 million tons may be added in July - August. The new capacity pressure is basically digested by exports. The demand is in the off - season, but the cost is strongly supported by the weak liquid chlorine. It is recommended to participate in the 10 - 1 spread arbitrage [11]. 3.3 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver is expected to break through and rise. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][18][23]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The good US economic data supports the copper price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][26][29]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to move within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][30]. - **Lead**: The downside may be limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][32][33]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening, with a trend intensity of - 1 [14][35][39]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the marginal change in inventory. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina is expected to oscillate strongly with a trend intensity of 1, and cast aluminum alloy is weaker than electrolytic aluminum with a trend intensity of 0 [14][40][42]. - **Nickel**: The news affects market sentiment, and the fundamentals are under pressure. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless steel is in a game between reality and macro factors, and the steel price oscillates. The trend intensity is 0 [14][43][47]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side disturbances have emerged again, and the short - term trend may be strong. The trend intensity is 1 [14][48][50]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and attention should be paid to market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0. Polysilicon's futures may rise and then fall, with a trend intensity of 0 [14][51][55]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it oscillates strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 1 [14][59][61]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: The steel procurement sentiment remains strong, and they oscillate widely. The trend intensity of both is 0 [14][63][65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has completed the first round of price increase and oscillates widely. The trend intensity is 0. Coking coal oscillates widely, and the trend intensity is 1 [14][66][68]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and it oscillates and stabilizes. The trend intensity is 0 [14][70][73]. - **Log**: It oscillates widely [74].
智利铜矿公司安托法加斯塔:2025年第二季度黄金产量为48,300盎司,增长13%。
news flash· 2025-07-16 06:04
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Antofagasta, a Chilean copper mining company, is projected to produce 48,300 ounces of gold in the second quarter of 2025, representing a 13% increase [1] Group 2 - The increase in gold production indicates a positive trend for the company's operational performance in the upcoming period [1] - This growth in gold output may reflect broader industry trends in mining and resource extraction [1] - The company's focus on diversifying its production portfolio could enhance its resilience against market fluctuations [1]
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250715
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 01:57
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In June 2025, China's social financing scale increased by 8.9% year - on - year, M2 by 8.3%, and loan balance by 7.1%. The marginal improvement in credit was due to policy stimulus and the low base in June 2024. Future credit expansion is expected with new policy stimuli [6]. - For lithium carbonate, macro - policy disturbances have become the core driver. Despite an oversupply situation, the market may see increased volatility due to macro - sentiment and potential warehouse - receipt issues [7][8]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be short - term volatile and strong. It is recommended to hold light short positions in the 2510 contract and use long positions in the 2512 and 2502 contracts for protection [9]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Readings - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the first half of 2025, China's social financing scale increment was 22.83 trillion yuan, with an increase of 4.74 trillion yuan year - on - year. In June, new credit was 2.24 trillion yuan, with an increase of about 110 billion yuan year - on - year. M2 - M1 spread narrowed [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Macro - policy disturbances led to price fluctuations. The projects involved in the policy account for 10% of the global output, 24% of China's output, and 92% of Jiangxi's output. The market may be more volatile [7][8]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: It is short - term volatile and strong. Different scenarios are considered for the 2508 contract's settlement price, and a strategy of holding light short positions in the 2510 contract and protecting with long positions in the 2512 and 2502 contracts is recommended [9]. 3.2 Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through and rise. Gold's trend strength is 1, and silver's is also 1 [12][18][19]. - **Base Metals** - Copper: Inventory increase puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [12][21][23]. - Zinc: It is under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [12][24][25]. - Lead: Attention should be paid to the consumption during the peak season, with a trend strength of 0 [12][26][27]. - Tin: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of - 1 [12][29][31]. - Aluminum: It is under pressure in the off - season. Alumina is expected to be short - term bullish and volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [12][33][35]. - Nickel: Support from the ore end is weakening, and global refined nickel is accumulating marginally. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between reality and macro factors. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [12][36][41]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - Lithium Carbonate: Policy disturbances on the supply side are notable. The trend strength is 1 [12][42][44]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Policy disturbances affect the market. The trend strengths of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both 1 [12][45][47]. - Iron Ore: Supported by macro expectations, it is expected to be strongly volatile, with a trend strength of 0 [12][48]. - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: The market sentiment remains strong, and prices oscillate widely. The trend strengths of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [12][51][53]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Steel - procurement prices have been settled, slightly boosting the market. The trend strengths of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 0 [12][55][57]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Coke is expected to be volatile and strong, and coking coal is affected by news and is also volatile and strong. The trend strength of coke is 0, and that of coking coal is 1 [12][58][61]. - Steam Coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices are stabilizing with oscillations. The trend strength is 0 [12][63][66].
全球矿业研究 | 这家巨头的铜矿将成为特朗普“美国制造”战略的代表?
彭博Bloomberg· 2025-07-10 03:44
Group 1 - The global energy market is experiencing constant turmoil due to rapid industry development, geopolitical tensions, and fluctuating supply and demand dynamics [2] - Bloomberg Intelligence provides timely industry updates and high-quality data analysis to help interpret market changes and foresee future trends [2] Group 2 - Copper production from 17 covered companies, accounting for 45% of global supply, is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% over the next five years, reaching a significant increase of 6-6.5% by 2026 [5] - Key factors for the anticipated production increase include the restart of First Quantum's Cobre Panama mine, recovery of Ivanhoe's Kamoa-Kakula post-earthquake, and production increases from Rio Tinto's Oyu Tolgoi and Escondida mines [5] Group 3 - Historical data shows that changes in U.S. tariff policies have had minimal impact on aluminum prices in both the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), with global supply and demand remaining the primary drivers [7] - For instance, during Trump's first term, a 10% tariff led to an 8-10% price drop, but prices rebounded shortly after [7] Group 4 - Glencore's coal division is undervalued compared to peers, with an estimated valuation of 2.4x EV/Ebitda, which is approximately 38% lower than the industry average [11] - If valued similarly to peers, Glencore's coal business could be worth 17% more than its current market value [11] Group 5 - Platinum prices are expected to continue rising due to supply disruptions similar to those seen in 2008, alongside increased demand from hybrid vehicles and jewelry [12] - The first quarter of this year has already shown favorable demand trends, supporting the price increase [12] Group 6 - The U.S. plans to raise steel import tariffs to 50% under Section 232 to further reduce imports, which currently account for 28% of apparent steel consumption [15] - The government will need to avoid granting exemptions or negotiate alternative agreements to effectively lower import levels [15] Group 7 - China has become a net exporter of alumina, with exports surging 75% in the first four months of the year, driven by rapid capacity expansion and slowing domestic demand [20] - The country’s alumina demand is expected to grow by 1.1% this year, while supply is likely to exceed consumption [20] Group 8 - Hudbay's Copper World project has seen a stock price increase of over 55% since early April, driven by strong first-quarter performance and rising metal prices [22] - The project is valued between $130 million and $140 million, with potential interest from investors in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Japan [22]