Market Performance - A-shares indices opened high and rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 2021 high of 3731 points, reaching a ten-year high since late August 2015, closing at 3740.5 points, up 1.18% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.25% to 11896.38 points, while the ChiNext Index rose by 3.63% to 2626.29 points [2] - All 31 first-level industry sectors in the market saw collective gains, with telecommunications, comprehensive, and computer sectors leading the rise, while oil, real estate, and banking sectors lagged [2] Bull Market Analysis - Current market conditions may indicate the early stage of a bull market's main upward wave, supported by three key reasons [4] - Firstly, the turnover rate (total transaction amount/total market value) typically reaches a peak during the main upward wave of a bull market. Although trading volume has increased since April, the turnover rate remains significantly lower than the peak observed in early October 2024 [5] - Secondly, there is often a significant change in market style between the early and late stages of a bull market. Since April 2025, small-cap stocks have been dominant, suggesting that if the current phase is indeed the early stage of a bull market, a shift towards large-cap stocks may occur in the later stage [5] - Thirdly, during the main upward wave of a bull market, equity financing typically surges to historical highs. Previous bull markets from 2005-2007 and 2013-2015 saw rapid increases in equity financing during their main upward phases, while current levels remain low [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current valuation of convertible bonds is relatively high from the perspective of implied volatility, close to the peak in 2022, and there is a certain risk of short - term callback in the convertible bond index [10][17]. - The A - share market still shows good allocation cost - performance, and the weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start. In the convertible bond market, considering the impact of refinancing policies, there is certain support on the demand side under the background of shrinking supply. However, be vigilant about the callback risk as the overall valuation is already at a relatively high level [21]. - In terms of industries, pay attention to popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises represented by "China -字头", and the military industry [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Weekly Special and Outlook 3.1.1. Implied Volatility: How about the Current Valuation of Convertible Bonds? - As of this Friday, the closing point of the China Securities Convertible Bond Index reached 475.25, a new high in recent years, with a year - to - date increase of 14.64%, slightly lower than the 16.19% increase of the Wind All - A Index [10]. - The overall implied volatility of convertible bonds has been rising since September 2024 and is now significantly higher than the annual highs since 2018. The implied volatility difference has accelerated its upward trend since April this year and is now above the 95% historical quantile, indicating that the overall valuation of convertible bonds is at a relatively high historical level [10]. - There is a certain differentiation in the valuation of convertible bonds. The valuation of convertible bonds with a parity of 50 - 80 is at a high historical quantile, while that of convertible bonds with a parity greater than 120 is relatively low. Some convertible bonds may still have room for valuation improvement [11]. - The RSJ_60 indicator of the China Securities Convertible Bond Index is currently above the 95% quantile of the past year, suggesting a certain short - term callback risk [17]. 3.1.2. Weekly Review and Market Outlook - This week, the market fluctuated upwards. The A - share market had mixed performance on different days, with various sectors rising and falling. Looking ahead, the A - share market shows good allocation cost - performance. The domestic economic fundamentals are expected to gradually resonate with the capital market [18][21]. - In the convertible bond market, pay attention to the game space of downward revision clauses, be vigilant about the forced redemption risk, and appropriately focus on the short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds [21]. - Industries to focus on include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises, and the military industry [22]. 3.2. Weekly Tracking of the Convertible Bond Market 3.2.1. Equity Market Closed Higher - This week, major equity market indices closed higher. The Wind All - A Index rose 2.95%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.55%, and the ChiNext Index rose 8.58%. Market style favored small - cap value stocks [25]. - Among the Shenwan industry indices, 22 industries rose and 9 fell. The communication, electronics, and non - bank finance industries led the gains, while the banking, steel, and textile and apparel industries led the losses [27]. 3.2.2. Convertible Bond Market Closed Higher, and the Premium Rate per 100 Par Value Decreased - This week, the convertible bond market closed higher. The China Securities Convertible Bond Index rose 1.60%, the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 1.53%, the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose 1.71%, the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 2.33%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Weighted Index rose 1.27% [29]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market increased. The average daily trading volume this week was 93.085 billion yuan, an increase of 8.61 billion yuan compared with last week, and the total weekly trading volume was 465.424 billion yuan [29]. - In terms of industries, 24 convertible bond industries rose and 5 fell. The non - bank finance, communication, and machinery and equipment industries led the gains, while the social services, banking, and national defense and military industries led the losses [34]. - Most individual convertible bonds rose (357 out of 454). The top five gainers were Outong Convertible Bond, Dayuan Convertible Bond, Jintong Convertible Bond, Weixin Convertible Bond, and Youzu Convertible Bond; the top five losers were Xince Convertible Bond, Jing 23 Convertible Bond, Gaoce Convertible Bond, Yingji Convertible Bond, and Sheyan Convertible Bond; the top five in terms of trading volume were Outong Convertible Bond, Dayuan Convertible Bond, Jiaojian Convertible Bond, Zhongqi Convertible Bond, and Dongjie Convertible Bond [36]. - The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased. The weighted average conversion value at the end of this week was 99.15 yuan, an increase of 0.99 yuan compared with last week; the weighted conversion premium rate was 41.69%, a decrease of 0.04 pct compared with last week [44]. 3.2.3. High - Frequency Tracking of Different Types of Convertible Bonds 3.2.3.1. Classification Valuation Changes - This week, there was valuation differentiation in the convertible bond structure. The valuations of convertible bonds with a parity of 0 - 80 and 100 - 110 decreased, while those of most other parity convertible bonds increased. The valuations of AAA - rated and A - and - below - rated convertible bonds increased, while those of other rated convertible bonds decreased. The valuations of small - cap and large - cap convertible bonds increased, while those of other scale - graded convertible bonds decreased [53]. - Since the beginning of 2024, the conversion premium rates of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds have rebounded from the bottom. As of this Friday, the conversion premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds is above the 35% quantile since 2017, and that of balanced convertible bonds is above the 50% quantile since 2017 [53]. 3.2.3.2. Market Index Performance - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. Since 2023, convertible bonds of different ratings have recorded different levels of returns, with high - rated convertible bonds showing more stable performance and low - rated convertible bonds showing weaker anti - decline ability and greater rebound strength [65]. - This week, convertible bonds of all scales rose. Since 2023, small - cap convertible bonds have recorded the highest return, followed by medium - small - cap, medium - cap, and large - cap convertible bonds in descending order [65]. 3.3. Tracking of Convertible Bond Supply and Terms 3.3.1. This Week's Primary Market Issuance Plans - This week, 2 convertible bonds have been issued but not yet listed, and 3 convertible bonds have passed the primary approval. From the beginning of 2023 to August 15, 2025, there have been 89 planned convertible bonds with a total scale of 139.408 billion yuan [72][73]. 3.3.2. Downward Revision and Redemption Clauses - This week, 5 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger downward revision, 8 convertible bonds announced that they would not be downward - revised, 2 convertible bonds proposed downward revision, and 3 convertible bonds announced the results of downward revision [77]. - This week, 18 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger redemption, 6 convertible bonds announced that they would not be redeemed in advance, and 4 convertible bonds announced early redemption [80][81][82]. - As of the end of this week, 4 convertible bonds are still in the put - option declaration period, and 11 convertible bonds are still in the company's capital - reduction and debt - settlement declaration period [85].

Report Title - "Science and Technology Sector Rallies, Fund Segments Rise Steadily - Fund Market Tracking 2025.08.15" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The A-share market strengthened overall, with large, medium, and small-cap representative indices rising over 2%. The growth style was prominent, up 5.0%. Most sectors posted positive returns, with the science and technology sector surging significantly and the banking sector experiencing a notable pullback [6]. - In the fund market, the median return of common stock funds was the highest at 3.6% this week, while international (QDII) alternative investments had the lowest return at -0.5% [6]. - Active equity funds in various sectors rose sharply following the stock market. TMT sector funds led the gains, with a 6.2% increase this week, driving the year-to-date return above 20%. Small and medium-cap and high-valuation stocks showed obvious advantages [6]. - Event-driven private funds had the highest return this year, reaching 27.2% [4]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Fluctuations 1.1 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The A-share market strengthened, with the CSI 1000 rising 4.1%. The growth style led with a 5.0% increase. Bonds slightly declined, while convertible bonds rose 1.6% driven by the stock market. Hong Kong stocks rose 1.1%, and US stocks rose 0.9%. Gold declined, while other representative commodities rose [9][10]. 1.2 Performance of Industry Themes - Most sectors posted positive returns. The science and technology sector rallied, with sub - industries rising over 5%, and 5G communication and artificial intelligence up over 9%. The pharmaceutical and biological sector also had high gains, with biotech and innovative drugs approaching 4%. The banking sector pulled back 3.2%, and some sub - industries in the cyclical sector declined [13]. 1.3 Performance of Concept Indices - The top five rising concepts were stock trading software, PEEK materials, servers, optical modules (CPO), and liquid - cooled servers, with stock trading software rising 21%. The top five falling concepts were CSSC system, bank selection, central state - owned banks, gold and jewelry, and aircraft carriers, with the CSSC system falling 3.5% [16]. 1.4 Trading Heat Tracking - The top five concepts with the highest trading heat were state - owned enterprise comprehensive, fund heavy - holdings, core assets, specialized and sophisticated small and medium - sized enterprises, and Huijin holdings. The average daily trading volume of state - owned enterprise comprehensive reached 52.49 billion shares. Compared with last week, the top five concepts with rising heat were stock trading software, semiconductor equipment, servers, equal - weighted securities firms, and lithium mines; the top five with falling heat were CSSC system, aircraft carriers, dairy, three - child policy, and SPD [20][21]. 2. Active Equity Fund Tracking 2.1 Classification Returns and Rising Ratios - In the past week, the median return of common stock funds was the highest at 3.6%, and international (QDII) alternative investments had the lowest return at - 0.5%. In the past month, the median return of common stock funds was the highest at 8.3%, and international (QDII) alternative investments had the lowest return at - 0.4%. The highest rising ratio in the past month was for international (QDII) bond funds at 100.0%, and the lowest was for enhanced index bond funds at 0.0%. The lowest maximum drawdown in the past month was for short - term pure bond funds at - 0.1%, and the highest was for international (QDII) alternative investments at - 4.2% [26]. 2.2 Returns of Sub - Labels - From a sector perspective, TMT sector funds rose 6.2% this week, driving the year - to - date return above 20%. Mid - stream manufacturing and pharmaceutical sector funds also rose over 4%. From a style perspective, small - and medium - cap and high - valuation stocks had obvious advantages [28][29]. 2.3 Fund Differentiation within Sectors - In the past week, the Hong Kong stock sector had the lowest differentiation with a return range of 8.9%, and the mid - stream manufacturing sector had the highest with a return range of 21.7%. In the past month, the Hong Kong stock sector had the lowest differentiation with a return range of 18.2%, and the balanced sector had the highest with a return range of 34.9% [31]. 2.4 Fund Differentiation within Styles - In the past week, the low - profitability - quality style had the lowest differentiation with a return range of 17.0%, and the balanced - market - cap and low - growth styles had the highest with a return range of 22.8%. In the past month, the low - profitability - quality style had the lowest differentiation with a return range of 27.8%, and the high - growth and high - quality styles had the highest with a return range of 39.3% [34]. 2.5 Top - Performing Funds in Each Sector - The report lists the top five funds in each sector by return in the past month [38][39]. 2.6 Top - Performing Funds in Each Style - The report lists the top five funds in each style by return in the past month [41]. 3. Private Placement Market Performance 3.1 Overall Performance of the Private Placement Market - Event - driven private funds had the highest return this year, reaching 27.2% [45]. 3.2 Returns of Various Private Placement Types - Stock - strategy private funds: Most high - return products were stock subjective long - only, with year - to - date returns mostly in the 0% - 20% range [48]. - Bond - strategy private funds: Most high - return products were bond composites, with year - to - date returns mostly in the 0% - 5% range [51]. - Portfolio - fund - strategy private funds: All high - return products were FOFs, with year - to - date returns mostly in the 5% - 10% range [55]. - Money - market - strategy private funds: All high - return products were trust products, with year - to - date returns mostly in the 0% - 2% range [58]. - Managed - futures private funds: Most high - return products were based on program trading strategies, with year - to - date returns mostly above 10% [61]. - Relative - value - strategy private funds: Most high - return products were stock - market neutral, with year - to - date returns mostly in the 0% - 10% range [65]. - Macro - strategy private funds: Only three products announced net values this week, and the product of Kua Ke Asset Management had the highest return [69]. - Composite - strategy private funds: Most high - return products were trust products, with year - to - date returns mostly in the 10% - 20% range [72]. - Other - strategy private funds: Most high - return products were under foreign - trade trusts, with year - to - date returns mostly in the 0% - 10% range [75].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a clear correction trend from August 11 to August 15, with the ChiNext Index rising the most at 8.58%, and the ChiNext 50 increasing by 9.90, indicating continued attractiveness in the growth sector after a short-term adjustment [2] - The major indices performed as follows: the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.70%, briefly surpassing the 3700-point mark, while the Wind first-level average increase was 2.03% with 89% of the Wind 100 concept index recording gains [2] - Sector performance was mixed, with telecommunications, electronics, and non-bank financials performing well, increasing by 7.66%, 7.02%, and 6.48% respectively, while textiles, steel, and banking sectors weakened, declining by 1.37%, 2.04%, and 3.19% respectively [2] Fund Issuance - A total of 23 funds were issued last week, including 14 equity funds, 6 mixed funds, and 3 bond funds, with a total issuance of 9.946 billion units [16] Fund Performance - The Wind All Fund Index rose by 1.83% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 3.82% and the mixed equity fund index rising by 3.85% [8] - The bond fund index saw a slight decline of 0.02%, indicating a challenging environment for fixed-income investments [8] Global Asset Review - Global asset performance showed divergence, with developed markets like the US maintaining upward momentum supported by resilient tech earnings and policy expectations, while emerging markets displayed greater elasticity, particularly in Vietnam and Russia [4] - The energy sector experienced increased volatility, with oil and gas prices affected by supply-demand rebalancing and geopolitical risks, while metal prices remained resilient due to new energy demand and supply disruptions [4] Domestic Bond Market Review - The national bond futures index (CFFEX 10-year) fell by 0.29%, and the 30-year national bond futures main contract dropped by 1.48%, indicating significant downward pressure on long-term interest rates [12]

| 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | | 总成交量 (万手) ▼ 总成交额 (亿元) ▼ | 净流入 (亿元) ▼ | 上涨家数 | 下跌家数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 其他电源设备 | 4.91 | 1795.50 | 309.78 | 31.08 | 30 | 1 | | 2 | 元件 | 4.22 | 2061.78 | 588.70 | 23.32 | 54 | ഹ | | 3 | 电子化学品 | 4.12 | 1219.00 | 239.77 | 20.79 | 40 | 1 | | 4 | 金属新材料 | 3.93 | 1623.54 | 248.12 | 23.14 | 31 | 1 | | 5 | 橡胶制品 | 3.92 | 279.90 | 50.66 | 2.78 | 20 | 0 | | 6 | 证券 | 3.82 | 11183.00 | 1493.18 | 205.01 | 50 | 0 | | 7 | 非金属材料 | 3.74 | 124.69 | 40.25 | 4.21 | 13 | ...

Core Insights - The article provides an analysis of the margin trading market in China, highlighting the current balance and trends in financing and securities lending activities [2][3]. Margin Trading Market Overview - As of the last trading day, the total margin trading balance in the two markets reached 2034.53 billion, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.41% [3]. - The financing amount for the last trading day was 193.98 billion, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.6% [3]. Financing and Margin Trading Balance - The financing amounts for the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets are reported as follows: - Shanghai: 2040 billion - Shenzhen: 2000 billion - Total: 1900 billion - Previous total: 1810 billion [4]. Industry Insights on Margin Trading - The top 20 industries by margin trading balance are as follows: - Securities: 120.56 billion - Semiconductors: 113.06 billion - Software Development: 64.76 billion - Banking: 62.86 billion - Communication Equipment: 55.13 billion - IT Services: 53.98 billion - Battery: 51.04 billion - Auto Parts: 51.03 billion - Military Equipment: 50.93 billion - Complete Vehicles: 50.44 billion - Chemical Pharmaceuticals: 47.73 billion - Electric Power: 45.94 billion - Consumer Electronics: 38.87 billion - Photovoltaic Equipment: 37.47 billion - General Equipment: 37.23 billion - Building Decoration: 34.85 billion - Chemical Products: 33.84 billion - Computer Equipment: 33.46 billion - Baijiu: 33.26 billion - Optoelectronics: 32.79 billion [6]. Individual Stock Insights - The top five stocks by financing amount on the last trading day were: - Cambrian: 2.23 billion with a financing ratio of 14.75% and a price increase of 20.00% - Zhongji Xuchuang: 1.81 billion with a financing ratio of 19.01% and a price increase of 5.09% - Xinyi Sheng: 1.75 billion with a financing ratio of 16.80% and a price increase of 6.23% - Dongfang Caifu: 1.47 billion with a financing ratio of 16.78% and a price increase of 0.80% - Shenghong Technology: 1.12 billion with a financing ratio of 14.18% and a price increase of 7.13% [8].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a strong performance with the ChiNext index rising over 3% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46 points, up 0.48%, with a trading volume of 8870.23 billion [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11551.37 points, up 1.76%, with a trading volume of 12639.14 billion [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2496.50 points, up 3.62%, with a trading volume of 6313.72 billion [1] Sector Performance - The electronic chemicals sector led the gains with a rise of 3.05% and a net inflow of 273.19 billion [2] - The industrial metals sector increased by 3.00% with a net inflow of 347.62 billion [2] - The components sector saw a rise of 2.88% with a net inflow of 673.76 billion [2] - Conversely, the coal mining and processing sector declined by 1.13% with a net outflow of 10.69 billion [2] - The banking sector fell by 0.91% with a significant net outflow of 77.25 billion [2]

| 建筑材 | 19.87 | -17.85 | 2.67 | -0.46 | -7.89 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 料 | | | | | | | 食品饮 | 14.33 | -12.92 | 1.56 | -0.42 | -9.75 | | 料 | | | | | | | 传媒 | 45.73 | 0.49 | 3.12 | 0.06 | -12.22 | | 建筑装 饰 | 40.69 | -14.35 | 1.45 | -0.14 | -13.03 | | 基础化 | | | | | | | 工 | 63.96 | -6.05 | 2.37 | -0.01 | -23.48 | | 汽车 | 53.09 | 0.88 | 2.41 | 0.38 | -24.66 | | 医药生 | 82.46 | 0.76 | 3.02 | -0.23 | -48.54 | | 物 | | | | | | | 机械设 | 94.78 | -8.98 | 3.50 | 0.10 | -50.53 | | 备 | | | | | | | 电力设 | 78.71 | ...

Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Narrative - The U.S. stock market showed resilience despite signs of weakness in the labor market, with the S&P 500 recovering losses and the Nasdaq 100 reaching a new all-time high [4][3] - Three hypotheses were proposed to explain this resilience: new AI stimuli, healthy capital flows despite reduced speculative demand, and the notion that stock markets do not directly reflect the economy [5][6][7] Group 2: Market Framework - The overall market sentiment remains positive, but increased risk asset holdings may complicate future trading [8] - AI spending has exceeded expectations, while employment growth has significantly declined since Q1, leading to a volatile market environment [8] - Short-term risk balance is uncertain, with expectations of consolidation in August and a challenging technical situation in September, but a bullish trend is anticipated for the second half of 2025 [8] Group 3: Key Points and Data Analysis - The U.S. labor market's health is under scrutiny, with mixed initial jobless claims and a disappointing ISM services index, leading to a GDP tracking expectation of 1.2% for Q3 [12] - Systematic trading institutions have largely completed their buying of global index futures, and discretionary investors have increased long positions, while retail investor demand has weakened [12] - The impact of tariffs is seen as destructive but not catastrophic, with the market no longer viewing it as a significant variable [13] Group 4: U.S. Technology Sector - Major U.S. tech companies reported strong Q2 earnings, with growth acceleration across various sectors, including cloud computing and AI [14] - The Nasdaq 100 index's P/E ratio is approaching historical highs, suggesting a need for consolidation, but potential earnings growth justifies a positive outlook on tech valuations [14] - Concerns about AI's impact on employment are noted, with a significant rise in unemployment rates among tech workers aged 20-30 since early 2024 [14] Group 5: Global Market Insights - The Japanese stock market has shown resilience, with the Nikkei index reaching new highs, while India's market faces challenges despite strong fundamentals [15] - Market depth and risk transfer ease are deteriorating, indicating a sensitive trading environment with increased price volatility [15] Group 6: Credit Market Dynamics - The surge in new corporate bond issuances suggests ample credit supply in the U.S. financial system, supported by ongoing demand and rising coupon rates [16] - A favorable policy environment for large corporations is noted, with pressures on consumers due to rising prices and stagnant real wage growth [16] Group 7: Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy includes going long on U.S. stocks (particularly tech), value storage assets (gold, silver, Bitcoin), shorting the dollar, and steepening yield curve trades [16] - This strategy is viewed as a preferred defensive measure for 2025, despite potential short-term underperformance in certain components [16]

Investment Rating - The report focuses on identifying investment opportunities in industries that are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, particularly in coal, steel, and building materials sectors, which are characterized by high levels of internal competition and effective policy execution [7][19]. Core Insights - The report addresses key questions regarding the existence of a clear investment theme in the market, the establishment of a systematic and quantifiable analysis framework for industry selection, and the roadmap and timeline for investments [7]. - The macroeconomic context highlights that industrial profits are under pressure, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months as of June 2025, leading to intensified competition within industries [7][14]. - The "anti-involution" policy has emerged as a national agenda aimed at optimizing industry structures and restoring profitability, driven by strong policy guidance [7][19]. - A dual-dimensional analysis model was constructed to evaluate the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on various industries, focusing on execution efficiency and the degree of internal competition [7]. - The investment conclusion emphasizes a focus on supply-side clearing, with coal, steel, and building materials industries expected to achieve rapid supply-side clearing and a V-shaped recovery in profitability due to their characteristics of high internal competition and high execution efficiency [7][19]. Summary by Sections Current Macroeconomic Background - Industrial enterprises are facing profit pressures, with the PPI continuing to contract, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [9][14]. - The report notes a significant correlation between PPI and industrial profits, suggesting that a recovery in prices is essential for profit recovery [14]. Model and Methodology - A quantitative model was developed to screen industries that would benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, focusing on execution efficiency and internal competition levels [7]. Conclusions and Strategies - The report suggests that industries such as coal, steel, and building materials are likely to be the first to experience supply-side clearing and profitability recovery, making them core areas of focus for investment [7][19].