因此，白银已经连续四年出现供应短缺，累计缺口达两万吨。这也导致白银库存持续去化。未来几年， 这一产业层面的供需偏紧格局恐怕难以改变。 实际上，自2021年以来，伦敦白银市场的库存已经大幅下降三分之一。目前可自由流通的白银仅剩约2 亿盎司，相比2019年的高点萎缩了75%，应对实物挤兑的能力被大幅削弱。要知道，每日白银市场的交 易量就高达2.5亿盎司。 今日周五(1月16日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于22420一线上方，今日开盘于22980元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报22628元/千克，下跌0.63%，最高触及23123元/千克，最低下探22007元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 在供给端，白银与铜等大宗金属一样，近年来受到制约。主要原因是全球主流矿业企业资本开支低迷， 优质矿山日益减少，矿石品位下降，开采成本上升，供给增长跟不上需求步伐。 另外，蒙特利尔银行表示，投资者需要关注太阳能领域的白银消费。"自2020年以来，太阳能领域贡献 了白银消费增量的58%；然而，由于太阳能安装量趋于平缓以及太阳能技术中持续进行的白银节约化设 计，来自太阳能领域的白银需求可能已经见顶， ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index fell by 0.27%, down 71 points, closing at 26,851 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.22% [1] - MiniMax (00100) surged over 12%, leading the large model sector, while Zhiyuan (02513) rose over 2% after launching a new image generation model in collaboration with Huawei [1] Group 2 - Jiaxin International Resources (03858) increased by over 3%, approaching a market capitalization of 35 billion HKD, as black tungsten concentrate prices surpassed 500,000 HKD [2] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) (00358) also rose over 3% after its subsidiary signed an investment option agreement with First Quantum in Kazakhstan [2] - Robotics stocks saw a broad increase, with Chinese manufacturers leading the global humanoid robot market, including significant gains for companies like Extreme Intelligence (02590) and Cloudwalk (02670) [2] Group 3 - Tianyue Advanced (02631) rose over 15% following TSMC's better-than-expected earnings and positive guidance, as the company expands its silicon carbide applications [3] Group 4 - Weichai Power (000338) (02338) increased by over 4.5%, nearing previous highs, as the company accelerates its SOFC capacity expansion to meet customer demand [4] Group 5 - Innovation Industry (02788) rose nearly 8%, with institutions optimistic about the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum sector in the first half of 2026 [5] - Power equipment stocks saw gains, with Dongfang Electric (600875) (01072) rising over 4% following a 4 trillion HKD plan disclosed by the State Grid [5] Group 6 - Kangnait Optical (02276) increased by over 8%, as institutions believe Meta's increased investment in smart glasses will accelerate industry development [6] Group 7 - Cao Cao Travel (02643) rose nearly 8% after acquiring Yao Travel and Geely Business Travel, expanding into the B2B travel sector [7]

Group 1: Industry Developments - Meituan has entered the automotive sales sector, signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Shanghai Xiche Future Intelligent Technology Co., aiming to create a one-stop service platform for car buying and local life services [2] - TSMC forecasts its revenue for Q1 2026 to be between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a midpoint estimate of $35.2 billion, representing a quarter-over-quarter increase of approximately 4.4% [4] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. expects a net profit of 20 billion to 20.8 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 48% to 54% due to rising product prices and effective cost control [5] Group 2: Financing Activities - Robot leasing platform "Qingtian Rental" has completed a seed round of financing led by Hillhouse Capital, with participation from several other investors, aimed at expanding its market presence and enhancing its technology and service systems [6][7] - AI-native growth intelligence company Noumena has announced the completion of a multi-million yuan Pre-A round of financing, focusing on developing AI agents for marketing decision-making and execution [8] Group 3: Product Launches - Xiaomi has introduced a 7-year low-interest car purchase policy for its first pure electric SUV, the Xiaomi YU7, with a starting down payment of 49,900 yuan and monthly payments as low as 2,593 yuan [4] - The iQOO Z11 Turbo has been launched, featuring a Snapdragon 8 flagship chip, a 200-megapixel main camera, and a 7,600mAh battery, with a starting price of 2,399 yuan [9]

江西铜业股份(00358)涨超3%，子公司与第一量子哈萨克签署《投资选择权契约》， 合作勘探矿业项 目。 机器人概念股早盘普涨。中国厂商领跑全球人形机器人市场，产业发展持续加速。极智嘉-W(02590)涨 6.3%；云迹(02670)涨5.5%；蓝思科技(06613)涨4.68%。 智通财经APP获悉，港股恒生指数跌0.27%，跌71点，报26851点；恒生科技指数跌0.22%。港股早盘成 交1408亿港元。 八部门力挺AI+制造，MiniMax（00100）涨超12%领涨大模型；智谱（02513）涨超2%，智谱联合华为 开源的新一代图像生成模型GLM-Image，在模型开源不到24小时即登上全球知名AI开源社区Hugging Face（抱抱脸）榜单的全球第一。 佳鑫国际资源(03858)再涨超3%，总市值逼近350亿港元，黑钨精矿价格突破50万元大关。 康耐特光学(02276)涨超8%，机构称Meta加大智能眼镜业务投入有望引领产业加速发展。 曹操出行(02643)再涨近8%，公司收购耀出行和吉利商旅，拓展B端商旅出行赛道。 禾赛-W(02525)涨超6%，激光雷达渗透率有望持续提升，公司今年规划年产能翻番 ...

中辉有色观点 | | 11 | | A 100 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | | | 74 C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 关税未裁决，美联储降息概率反复，地缘问题一波三折，地缘溢价交易继续，流动 | | | 长线持有 | 性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄 | | ★★ | | 金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银未被征收关税市场情绪有所舒缓，但同时避险交易、交割逼仓、资源品交易预 | | ★★ | 长期持有 | 期持续。短期注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银 | | | | 长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 特朗普暂缓重要矿产关税，英伟达数据中心铜需求大幅缩水，美国持续虹吸全球铜 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 资源，短期铜高位震荡，建议多单持有，移动止盈落袋，新入场等待充分回调，中 | | ★ | | 长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | LME 拒绝韩国锌业锌锭注册仓单，受事件型冲击影响，锌迅速拉涨，隔夜高位 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with a significant increase in inventory, weak and stable steel mill production, and a decline in terminal ore consumption. This week, the average daily hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month, and the improvement in steel mill profitability is limited. Coupled with the accumulation of contradictions in the steel market during the off - season, ore demand will remain weak, although steel mills will replenish stocks before the festival. Meanwhile, port arrivals continue to increase, while miner shipments decline slightly. Both are at relatively high levels, overseas ore supply is relatively active, and domestic ore supply has recovered, so ore supply remains high. With a warm commodity sentiment and lingering positive factors, the ore price is operating in a high - level range. However, due to the high supply and weak and stable demand, the fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong. The ore price shows a high - level oscillation pattern under the game of multiple and short factors. Be cautious of the trading logic switching to the industrial end, when the ore price is likely to be under pressure again. Pay attention to the stock - replenishing situation of steel mills [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 16,555.10, with a week - on - week increase of 279.84, a month - to - date increase of 584.21, and a year - on - year increase of 1,692.04 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,262.22, with a week - on - week increase of 272.63, a month - to - date increase of 315.68, and a year - on - year decrease of 381.90 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1] Supply - The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 domestic ports is 2,920.40, with a week - on - week increase of 164.00, a month - to - date increase of 319.00, and a year - on - year increase of 781.90 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The global iron ore shipment volume is 3,180.90, with a week - on - week decrease of 32.80, a month - to - date decrease of 496.22, and a year - on - year increase of 189.30 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1] Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 228.01, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.49, a month - to - date increase of 0.58, and a year - on - year increase of 0.14 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 319.89, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.38, a month - to - date decrease of 5.32, and a year - on - year decrease of 4.32 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 281.84, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.44, a month - to - date increase of 1.17, and a year - on - year decrease of 1.74 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar. The weekly average of iron ore transactions at major ports is 95.13, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.21, a month - to - date increase of 14.45, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.09 compared to the same period of the lunar calendar [1]

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) Mining's stock price increased by 4.40%, currently trading at HKD 3.80, with a transaction volume of HKD 112 million [5]. Group 1: Company Performance - In 2025, CGN's 49%-owned Xie Company produced 862.2 tons of natural uranium, while another 49%-owned Ao Company produced 1,836.8 tons, achieving completion rates of 100.1% and 102.0% respectively [5]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, CGN's invested mines produced a total of 702.5 tons of natural uranium, with a quarterly completion rate of 94.6%. Xie Company produced 249.2 tons, and Ao Company produced 453.3 tons [5]. Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Guojin Securities, the primary supply of uranium is expected to recover in the short term due to the resumption of mining operations, but the long-term supply capacity is facing continuous decline. Secondary supply is unlikely to generate effective increments in the short term [5]. - On the demand side, nuclear power installations are steadily increasing due to energy security, the transition to clean energy, and AI-driven electricity demand, leading to a persistent global supply-demand gap for natural uranium. Expectations of tight supply are driving up long-term contract prices for uranium [5].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with significant inflows into related ETFs, indicating robust investor interest and potential for continued growth [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The popular non-ferrous ETF, Huabao (159876), saw an intraday increase of 2.2%, currently up 1.41%, reaching a new high since its listing [1][12]. - As of January 15, the latest scale of Huabao ETF reached 1.453 billion, marking a historical peak and ranking first among three ETFs tracking the China Nonferrous Metals Index [1][12]. - The ETF has attracted a net subscription of 50.4 million units, with a total net inflow of 473 million over the past ten days [1][12]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Leading stocks in the sector include Hunan Silver, which surged over 6%, along with Chihong Zn & Ge, Jiangxi Copper, and Jinchuan Group, all rising more than 5% [4][15]. - Other notable performers include Western Mining and Zhongjin Lingnan, both showing positive gains [4][15]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts predict that the non-ferrous metal sector will continue to thrive due to multiple factors, including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved domestic macro expectations [5][16]. - The sector is expected to enter a bull market by 2026, driven by a confluence of monetary, demand, and supply factors [5][16]. - The demand for strategic metals is anticipated to rise significantly, influenced by new technologies and geopolitical factors, with a focus on metals used in military applications [3][16]. Group 4: Copper Market Insights - China Galaxy Securities suggests that copper prices have substantial upward potential, as historical analysis shows that current prices, adjusted for inflation, have not reached previous supercycle highs [3][14]. - The ongoing reshaping of the international monetary order and the low copper-to-gold ratio indicate a favorable environment for copper investments [3][14]. - The convergence of the AI technology revolution and global order restructuring is expected to create a new supercycle for copper [3][14].

Core Insights - Liaoning Province has 1,077 valid mining rights and 309 valid exploration rights as of November 2025, with a mining workforce exceeding 100,000 and a total mining output value of 69.7 billion yuan, ranking ninth nationally [1] - The implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law since July 1, 2025, has led to significant improvements in mining rights management and approval processes, enhancing clarity, convenience, efficiency, and transparency [1] Group 1: Training and Public Awareness - A specialized training session was organized by the Liaoning Provincial Organization Department to enhance the understanding of the new law, involving over 140 officials from municipal and county governments [3] - The Natural Resources Department conducted training for over 900 personnel and facilitated video learning for more than 2,000 individuals at the municipal and county levels [3] - Various promotional activities were undertaken, including the creation of a mind map for the new law and extensive public outreach through online platforms [3] Group 2: Approval Process Reform - The approval model has shifted from a sequential to a parallel process, allowing enterprises to submit applications directly to the provincial level via the government service network [5] - The number of departments involved in provincial-level mining rights review has been reduced, streamlining the process to eight provincial, four municipal, and five county-level departments [5] - The approval process has transitioned to an online system, enabling "one-stop" services where enterprises can submit electronic materials and track their application status in real-time [5] Group 3: Internal Supervision and Support - A detailed internal supervision system has been established to ensure consistent standards across provincial, municipal, and county levels, with automatic reminders for pending approvals [6] - Technical teams have been deployed to assist enterprises in preparing application materials, improving submission quality and reducing errors [6] - The department has conducted 262 on-site policy clarification sessions to address enterprise concerns and enhance service delivery [6] Group 4: Transition and Legislative Updates - A transitional announcement has been issued to clarify the standards and processes for mining rights services during the transition period, preventing policy gaps [7] - The approval system has been restructured to separate mining rights from administrative licenses, with the first mining rights property certificate issued on September 15, 2025 [8] Group 5: Exploration Rights Cleanup - Since 2024, the department has initiated a cleanup of expired exploration rights, establishing a work ledger to track progress and responsibilities [10] - Ongoing supervision has been implemented to ensure timely exploration activities, with 495 exploration rights cleaned up to date [10] - There are currently 50 exploration rights undergoing the cancellation public notice process, with further cleanup efforts planned [10]

Core Viewpoint - China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) Mining has seen its stock price increase by over 4%, currently trading at HKD 3.79 with a transaction volume of HKD 87.39 million. The company announced its uranium production figures for 2025, indicating strong performance in both its joint ventures [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - In 2025, CGN's 49%-owned Xie Company produced 862.2 tons of natural uranium, achieving a completion rate of 100.1% of its annual plan, while the 49%-owned Ao Company produced 1,836.8 tons, with a completion rate of 102.0% [1]. - For the fourth quarter of 2025, CGN's invested mines produced a total of 702.5 tons of natural uranium, with a completion rate of 94.6% for the quarter. Xie Company contributed 249.2 tons, and Ao Company contributed 453.3 tons [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Guojin Securities, the supply side of uranium is expected to see a short-term recovery due to the resumption of mining operations, but the long-term supply capacity is facing continuous decline. Additionally, secondary supply is unlikely to generate effective increments in the short term [1]. - On the demand side, the growth of nuclear power installations is being driven by energy security, the transition to clean energy, and the demand for AI-related electricity, leading to a steady increase in demand for natural uranium. The global supply-demand gap for natural uranium is expected to persist [1]. - With expectations of tight supply, the long-term contract prices for uranium are anticipated to continue rising [1].