Group 1: Silicon Iron Market Analysis - The cost of silicon stone in Qinghai and Ningxia ranges from 180 to 230 CNY/ton, while the price of Shenfu Lan charcoal is between 610 and 670 CNY/ton[2] - The current cash price for 72 silicon iron is reported at 5400-5500 CNY/ton, and for 75 silicon iron, it is 5950-6050 CNY/ton[2] - Silicon iron warehouse receipts increased by 19 to 17881 receipts, with a total forecast of 96480 tons, up by 2600 tons[2] Group 2: Market Trends and Technical Analysis - The Wenhua Commodity Index closed up 0.42% at 158.08, with a net outflow of 61.987 billion CNY[2] - The black series showed mixed results, with SF2506 closing at 5430, up 0.04%, and a net outflow of 210 million CNY[2] - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with a focus on buying on the rise rather than on the fall[4] Group 3: Manganese Silicon Market Insights - Manganese ore prices are fluctuating, with semi-carbonate at Tianjin Port priced at 32-33 CNY/ton, and South African high-grade at 30.5-31 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon current cash prices are between 5500-5600 CNY/ton, with a notable point price transaction at 5350 CNY/ton[7] - Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1405 to 123166 receipts, indicating a clear trend of inventory reduction[7] Group 4: Macro Economic Factors - The People's Bank of China has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and reduced policy interest rates by 0.1 percentage points[12] - The logistics industry’s prosperity index for April was reported at 51.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[12] - The total manganese ore inventory in China decreased by 26.39 million tons, with significant reductions at various ports[13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: Market prices of 72% FeSi in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, Tianjin) from 2021 - 2025 are presented, along with prices of 75% FeSi in Shaanxi, silicon iron export and import average prices, and various price differentials such as basis, month - to - month spreads, and the spread between silicon iron and silicon manganese [1][2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Market prices, basis in different regions (Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia), price differentials (north - south, high - low grade), and prices of related raw materials (chemical coke, manganese ore) from 2021 - 2025 are shown [6]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: Output data of 136 Chinese silicon iron enterprises (monthly and weekly), capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, and export prices at Tianjin Port from 2021 - 2025 are provided [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Chinese silicon manganese output (weekly), prices of raw materials (chemical coke, manganese ore), and prices of related products (high - carbon ferromanganese, electrolytic manganese) from 2021 - 2025 are given [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: Data on Chinese silicon iron export quantity, procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and production data of related industries (crude steel, stainless steel, metal magnesium) from 2021 - 2025 are included [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Chinese silicon manganese demand (in ten thousand tons), procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and crude steel production forecast data from 2021 - 2025 are presented [6][7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: Inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (weekly), warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory average available days in different regions from 2021 - 2025 are shown [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, inventory + effective inventory, and inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly) from 2021 - 2025 are provided [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: Electricity prices in different regions, prices of raw materials (blue charcoal, silica, iron oxide scale), production costs and profits in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 are given [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Profits in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, northern and southern regions, and Guangxi's profit converted to the main contract from 2021 - 2025 are presented [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market currently has strong real - world fundamentals and rising macro - optimistic expectations, which support the lower limit of finished products. However, the weak demand expectation and the tendency of new orders to decline limit the upward space of the futures market. Without unexpected positive news, the futures market may fluctuate in the near term [3]. - The iron ore market is trading on the expectation of future demand rather than the current situation of strong supply and demand. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the weakening of exports may intensify industrial chain contradictions [17]. - The coal - coke market is in a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. In the long - term, due to coal supply guarantee and crude steel reduction expectations, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. Although the pressure of high supply of silicon manganese has been alleviated, supply still exceeds demand compared with weak downstream demand. The production of silicon iron has increased slightly this week, and the large increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the rise of the futures price [54]. - The soda ash market is expected to have more maintenance in May, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3126, 3048, and 3098 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3239, 3200, and 3217 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were between 3180 - 3344 yuan/ton on May 7, 2025 [9]. Market Analysis - From a macro - industrial perspective, Sino - US trade negotiations seem to have new progress, and the macro - optimistic expectation has risen. The real - world fundamentals are strong, but the future demand expectation is weak, and the market may face pressure from weakening demand and falling raw material costs [3]. Iron Ore Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 681, 768, and 708 respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao, such as PB powder, were also provided [18]. Market Analysis - The current supply and demand of iron ore are both strong, but the market is trading on future expectations. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the negative feedback pressure on steel mills to reduce production is increasing [17]. Coal - Coke Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs and basis in different regions and contracts were provided, as well as the coking profit on the futures market [35]. Market Analysis - In the short - term, the supply and demand of coal - coke are both strong. In the long - term, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. Ferroalloy Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the silicon iron and silicon manganese basis, futures spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided, as well as the prices of related raw materials and the number of warehouse receipts [55][56]. Market Analysis - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. The supply of silicon manganese still exceeds demand, and the increase in silicon iron production and warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [54]. Soda Ash Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the soda ash futures prices, spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided [71][72]. Market Analysis - In May, there are expected to be more maintenance activities, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. Glass Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the glass futures prices, spreads, and basis in different regions were provided, as well as the daily sales data in different regions [98][99]. Market Analysis - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures opened high and closed low on the first trading day after the holiday, with the rebar 2510 contract closing at 3077 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 92,500 lots. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume fell. Given the challenges in steel exports and the transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May, the market supply - demand may face weakening pressure. It is expected that the rebar futures will continue to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend, closing at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. With a decrease in Australian shipments due to berth maintenance and an increase in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory, the iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 25,843 lots. The coking coal market is weak. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. It is expected that the coking coal futures will trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Coke: The coke futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 1502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 2.34% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 4,825 lots. Spot prices fell. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5560 yuan/ton, down 2.76% from the previous day, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed to improve the situation [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5398 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the previous day. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Rebar futures opened high and closed low, with a decline in spot prices and trading volume. The decline in the April PMI index and the challenges in steel exports led to cautious market expectations. The transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May may bring weakening pressure on supply - demand. The rebar futures are expected to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. There were changes in supply, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory. The iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures declined, with a weak spot market. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. The coking coal futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures declined, with a decline in spot prices. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, hitting a new low since the second half of 2017. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar being - 32.0, down 6.0, and the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil being 43.0, down 10.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 133.0, up 9.0, and the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 100.4, up 0.1 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties showed different trends. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3210.0, down 10.0, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 759.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of various varieties changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was 120.6, down 2.7, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 119.0, up 11.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the historical basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of rebar to coke [40][41][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the historical profits of rebar futures, long - process production, and short - process production from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [51]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry awards [51]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].

| 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3109 | -13 | 热卷01 | 3224 | -8 | | 螺纹05 | 3031 | -29 | 热卷05 | 3181 | 2 | | 螺纹10 | 3077 | -19 | 热卷10 | 3196 | -8 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2940 | 0 | 张家港废钢 | 2120 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3190 | 0 | 热卷:天津 | 3210 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3210 | -10 | 热卷:上海 | 3240 | 0 | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3210 | -10 | 热卷:杭州 | 3260 | 0 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3430 | -20 | 热卷:广州 | 3300 | 20 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3350 | 0 | 热卷：成都 | 3420 | 0 | | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Today, at 9 am, a news conference will be held to introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectation management," and it is expected that a series of favorable policies will be released [7]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal is weak, but the downside space is limited. The 09 contract has priced in some negative factors, and there is still trading time left. Attention should be paid to the May USDA supply - demand report, US trade negotiations, and US soybean weather [8]. - Industrial silicon is still bearish in the short term. High inventory pressures will cause futures prices to continue to test the cost line of upstream factories, and the strategy is to short on rallies [11]. - The spot price of polysilicon is expected to decline, and the short - term trend of the futures is weak. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, and the price may have a short - term rebound in mid - to late May [12]. - The trend of styrene is weak. After the May Day holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene declined, and the terminal orders of styrene decreased. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities on the futures [13]. Summaries by Directory Pre - market Insights - There will be a news conference at 9 am today by the central bank, CSRC, etc. to introduce financial policies, and favorable policies are expected to be released [7]. Recommended by the Director - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term trend is weak, but the downside space is limited. Negative factors have been priced in, and the 09 contract still has trading time. Attention should be paid to relevant events [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term bearish. High inventory, high weekly production, and weak downstream demand will lead to price declines. The strategy is to short on rallies [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Spot price is expected to decline, and the short - term futures trend is weak. The supply - demand pattern is weak on both sides, and there may be a short - term rebound in mid - to late May [12]. - **Styrene**: Trend is weak. After the holiday, the prices of crude oil and pure benzene declined, and the terminal orders decreased. Attention should be paid to shorting opportunities [13]. Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold data is better than expected, and silver is oscillating downward. The trend intensity of gold is 1, and that of silver is - 1 [19][23]. - **Copper**: The spot price is firm, supporting the futures price. The trend intensity is 1 [25][27]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum has insufficient upward momentum, and alumina is consolidating at a low level. The trend intensity of aluminum is - 1, and that of alumina is 0 [28][30]. - **Zinc**: Oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [31][32]. - **Lead**: Under short - term pressure. The trend intensity is - 1 [34]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are back in a narrow - range oscillation, and the downside and upside spaces are converging. The spot price of stainless steel has declined to repair the basis, and there is still support below. The trend intensity of both is 0 [36][38]. - **Tin**: The price weakened during the holiday. The trend intensity is - 1 [40][44]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The weak state of industrial silicon continues, and the fundamentals of polysilicon are still weak. The trend intensity of both is - 1 [46][48]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply - demand surplus continues, and the weak pattern may be difficult to change. The trend intensity is 0 [49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The expectation is volatile, and the price is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [52][53]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The demand expectation is poor, and the prices are fluctuating at a low level. The trend intensity of both is 0 [56][60]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: The prices are dragged down by costs and are trending weakly. The trend intensity of both is - 1 [62][66]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Affected by policy expectations, the prices are oscillating at the bottom. The trend intensity of both is 0 [67][69]. - **Steam Coal**: There is a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the price is oscillating weakly. The trend intensity is 0 [70][72]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The trend intensity is 0 [73][74]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene is in a positive carry trade for the monthly spread, and the processing margin is expanding. The strategy for PTA is to go long PTA and short SC, and for MEG, it is to go long PTA and short MEG [76][77].

2025 年 5 月 7 日 硅铁：成本拖累价格，硅铁走势偏弱 锰硅：成本拖累价格，锰硅走势偏弱 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 1、铁合金在线：5 月 6 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5400-5450（-50），宁夏 5450-5550，青海 5450-5550， 甘肃 5550-5600，内蒙 5450-5500；75#硅铁：陕西 6000-6100，宁夏 5900-6000，青海 5950-6000 （-50），甘肃 6000-6100（-50），内蒙 5950-6050（-50）（现金含税自然块出厂，元/吨）；硅铁 FOB：72#1060-1090，75#1120-1140（美元/吨，含税）。硅锰 6517#南北主流价格在 5600-5750 元 /吨区间。（现金出厂含税报价） 2、铁合金在线：新余钢铁 4 月 30 日硅铁定价 5950 元/吨承兑，较上一轮跌 200 元/吨，量 500 吨。云 南某钢厂敲定 75B 硅铁采购价为 5950 元/吨现金，量 ...

Group 1: Iron Ore Market - Iron ore prices experienced slight fluctuations, driven by strong shipping intentions from traders and steel companies' low-price procurement ahead of the "May Day" holiday [1] - The overall demand for iron ore remains good due to high operating rates in steel mills, with port arrivals of iron ore increasing and inventory levels continuing to decline, albeit at a slower rate [1] - Despite a slight drop in iron ore futures prices, the fundamentals suggest a potential for slight upward price movement in the near term [1] Group 2: Metallurgical Coke Market - Domestic metallurgical coke prices remained stable, supported by increasing iron output and good demand for metallurgical coke [2] - Some steel companies are experiencing urgency for dry quenching first-grade metallurgical coke, but overall acceptance of price increases is low due to stable steel market conditions and unchanged profits [2] - It is expected that metallurgical coke prices will remain stable in the near term [2] Group 3: Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices showed a downward trend, with online auction prices fluctuating and instances of unsold lots [3] - Prices for low-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi were reported at 1310 yuan/ton, while prices for gas coal in Shaanxi ranged from 840 to 870 yuan/ton [3] - Overall demand for coking coal remains supported by high operating rates in coke enterprises, with expectations of stable prices leading up to the "May Day" holiday [3] Group 4: Ferroalloy Market - Ferroalloy prices showed a stable to slightly increasing trend, with silicon iron prices remaining stable and production in major regions increasing slightly [4] - The market for silicon manganese is expected to operate steadily with a slight downward bias, as procurement prices from steel companies have decreased [4] - High-carbon ferrochrome prices are stable, with procurement prices from major companies showing a slight increase, but overall demand remains moderate [4] Group 5: Vanadium and Molybdenum Alloys - Vanadium-nitrogen alloy prices decreased by 1000 yuan/ton, while vanadium iron prices remained stable, indicating limited price fluctuation space [5] - Molybdenum iron prices increased by 8000 yuan/ton, driven by rising raw material costs and good demand from steel companies [5] - The procurement pace for molybdenum iron has slowed following price increases, with expectations of stable to slightly fluctuating prices in the near term [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, the latest prices of 72 silicon iron in different regions are as follows: 5500 in Ningxia, 5550 in Inner Mongolia, 5550 in Qinghai, and 5450 in Shaanxi. The prices of 6517 silicon manganese in different regions also vary, such as 5650 in Inner Mongolia, 5500 in Ningxia, etc. [1] - The closing prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese futures contracts, as well as their daily and weekly changes, are presented. For example, the silicon iron main contract is at 5590, with a daily change of -18 and a weekly change of -114. [1] - The export and import prices of silicon iron, as well as the prices of related products like silicon manganese and high - carbon ferromanganese, are shown in long - term time series charts from 2021 - 2025. [2][6] Supply - The production data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China, including monthly and weekly production, and the capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi, are provided. The monthly production of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China ranges from 60,000 to 140,000. [4] - The production data of silicon manganese in China, including weekly production and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, are also given. The weekly production of silicon manganese in China ranges from 5500 to 9000. [6] Demand - The demand - related data include the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement volume of silicon iron by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the demand for silicon manganese in China. The estimated monthly production of crude steel in China ranges from 6500 to 10500 (in 10,000 tons). [4][6][7] Inventory - The inventory data of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions (such as Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon iron), and the inventory of silicon manganese in 63 sample enterprises in China. The inventory of 60 silicon iron sample enterprises in China ranges from 0 to 150,000 (weekly). [5][7] Cost and Profit - The cost - related data involve the electricity prices in different regions (such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Shaanxi), the market price of blue charcoal, and the prices of raw materials like manganese ore. The profit data include the production profit of blue charcoal, the profit of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions (such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi), and the export profit of 75% silicon iron. [5][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of "not bad in reality but poor in expectation". With high steel production corresponding to moderate demand and inventory in a seasonal improvement stage, unilateral speculative short - selling is not cost - effective. For steel, wait for new contradictions to accumulate before entering the market, and choose hot - rolled coil with better liquidity in the spot - futures aspect [4][8]. - For coking coal and coke, the second round of price increase is temporarily shelved. With sufficient supply, expected peak of molten iron, and weakening pressure from the trade war in May, it is advisable to short on rallies [5]. - In the ferroalloy market, the weekly output of manganese - silicon decreased slightly during the holiday, while that of silicon - iron remained stable. Silicon - iron has low valuation and large production reduction, so it is recommended to try to go long on dips [6]. - For iron ore, although the price has recovered after a sharp drop during the holiday, due to the expectation of production control, it is not recommended to hold long single - side positions, but positive spreads can be used when molten iron is at a high level [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On April 30, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3122 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (- 0.45%); HC2601 at 3232 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (- 0.28%); I2601 at 679 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan (- 0.66%); J2601 at 1576 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan (- 0.85%); JM2601 at 980 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan (- 1.06%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 3096 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan (- 0.42%); HC2510 at 3204 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (- 0.44%); I2509 at 703.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan (- 0.78%); J2509 at 1538 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (- 0.97%); JM2509 at 930.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan (- 0.59%) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: On April 30, the cross - month spreads of RB2510 - 2601 was - 26 yuan/ton, HC2510 - 2601 was - 28 yuan/ton, I2509 - 2601 was 24.5 yuan/ton, J2509 - 2601 was - 38 yuan/ton, JM2509 - 2601 was - 49.5 yuan/ton. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 108 yuan/ton, the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.40, the ratio of coking coal to coke was 1.65, the rebar disk profit was 108.48 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 300.44 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis**: On April 30, the basis of HC (main contract) was 36 yuan/ton, RB was 104 yuan/ton, I was 72 yuan/ton, J was 120.66 yuan/ton, JM was 89.5 yuan/ton [2]. Steel - **Market Situation**: During the May Day holiday, most domestic steel spot markets were closed, and a few areas and varieties tried to increase prices. As of May 5, the price of billets in Tangshan increased by 20 yuan to 2970 yuan/ton, and the price of finished products remained stable. The steel inventory is in a seasonal decline stage, and the export indicators have not shown a significant weakening trend. The current high steel production corresponds to moderate demand, and the market shows a situation of "not bad in reality but poor in expectation" [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: Before the holiday, some steel mills lowered the base price of top - charged coke by 20 yuan, and the second round of price increase was temporarily shelved. The coking coal auction had many unsuccessful bids, and the transaction price mainly decreased. During the holiday, the port customs clearance of Mongolian coal was on holiday, which may lead to further inventory reduction, but considering the sufficient supply of Mongolian coal, the customs clearance is likely to recover after the inventory in the supervision area decreases [5]. - **Futures Market**: During the holiday, most overseas industrial products fell due to concerns about insufficient demand. Although there are signals of negotiation between China and the US and the possibility of tariff relaxation, the trade war is still ongoing. The demand in the black market in May needs to be verified. The steel supply - demand was good before the holiday, but the price increase was still weak. In the future, the terminal demand is likely to weaken in May, and the supply policy has great uncertainty [5]. Ferroalloy - **Production Situation**: During the holiday, the weekly output of manganese - silicon decreased slightly, and that of silicon - iron remained stable. The supply - demand of silicon - iron is tight, and the production reduction in the production area is large. Manganese - silicon is still in a surplus state, and it is difficult for some factories to reduce production [6]. - **Cost and Price**: During the holiday, the cost did not change significantly. Manganese ore prices are under pressure from high supply, chemical coke is stable, and the price of raw coal for semi - coke has a small increase. The alloy price matches the current supply - demand and valuation, and silicon - iron has a low valuation [6]. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The total iron ore shipment remained stable, and the Australian shipment decreased significantly this period. The subsequent arrival volume will also remain stable. The steel mill's molten iron output increased significantly this period, reaching 244.35 tons per day (+4.23), and it is expected to be at a high - level shock in the next three weeks. The steel export situation has not weakened [7]. - **Valuation and Trading Strategy**: The short - term valuation of iron ore is relatively low, but the expectation of production control restricts the market valuation. After a sharp drop during the holiday, the price has basically recovered. It is not recommended to hold long single - side positions, but positive spreads can be used when molten iron is at a high level [7].