锡周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 锡：微观基本面转弱 强弱分析：中性 价格区间：265000-270000元/吨 本周冶炼厂开工率继续走低 本周社会库存基本持平 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-03 01-13 01-26 02-10 02-23 03-04 03-15 03-25 04-07 04-18 04-28 05-10 05-20 05-31 06-13 06-24 07-05 07-19 08-02 08-16 08-30 09-13 09-27 10-14 10-28 11-11 11-24 12-03 12-15 12-24 % 精炼锡_两省合计开工率 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01-03 01-14 0 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of the special action is to promote standardized law enforcement related to enterprises, addressing difficulties faced by businesses, and creating a conducive development environment [1][3] - The inspection team held a meeting to discuss the progress and challenges of the special action, emphasizing the importance of administrative law enforcement in shaping government image and public trust [3][8] - Various enforcement departments reported on their responsibilities and exchanged views on the challenges faced during law enforcement processes [3][6] Group 2 - The inspection team visited several companies to gather feedback from business leaders regarding law enforcement practices and to discuss standardization [5][6] - The team acknowledged the efforts made by the county government in implementing the special action and outlined requirements for further improvement, including enhancing law enforcement efficiency and optimizing service for businesses [8] - Emphasis was placed on adhering to local jurisdiction principles, establishing collaboration mechanisms, and prohibiting any form of coercive enforcement or profit-seeking behavior by law enforcement officials [8]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. by Shudao Investment Group aims to alleviate financial difficulties, optimize capital structure, and enhance control stability over the company [5][6]. Group 1: Acquisition Purpose and Financial Situation - The acquisition aims to address the financial distress of the listed company, improve liquidity, and enhance profitability [5]. - As of the end of 2024, the listed company has outstanding debts including a principal repayment of 423.43 million yuan and delayed performance payments of 222.99 million yuan, alongside bank loans totaling 680.62 million yuan, resulting in a high debt-to-asset ratio of 82.87% [6]. - The acquisition will involve raising funds to repay debts, which is crucial for the company's financial health and risk management [6]. Group 2: Acquirer and Action Parties' Qualifications - Shudao Investment Group, established in May 2021, has a registered capital of 54.23 billion yuan and is wholly owned by Sichuan Development (Holding) Co., Ltd. [10]. - The action parties, including Sichuan Hongda Industrial Co., Ltd. and Sichuan Tianfu Chunxiao Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., are legally established entities with no significant legal or financial issues [12][17]. - The financial advisor confirms that the acquirer and action parties have the necessary qualifications and capabilities to conduct the acquisition [5][17]. Group 3: Financial Strength and Funding Sources - Shudao Group plans to subscribe to the stock issuance at a price of 4.68 yuan per share, acquiring 609.6 million shares for a total of 2.85 billion yuan [11]. - The funding will come from a combination of bank loans amounting to 2.282 billion yuan and self-owned funds of 571 million yuan, ensuring the legality and compliance of the funding sources [18]. - The financial advisor has verified the acquirer's financial stability and operational soundness, confirming their ability to proceed with the acquisition [11][18]. Group 4: Impact on Company Independence and Competition - The acquisition will not change the actual controller of the listed company, maintaining its operational independence [22]. - There exists a potential for competition between the listed company and Shudao Group's controlled entity, Qingping Phosphate Mine, which produces similar phosphate products [23][26]. - Shudao Group has committed to resolving any competitive issues through business integration and will not engage in new competitive activities against the listed company [26].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company, Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd., is utilizing the raised funds through agreed deposits and notice deposits to enhance fund efficiency and shareholder returns while ensuring the safety and liquidity of the funds [1][2][5]. Fundraising Basic Information - The company has issued 609,600,000 shares at a price of RMB 4.68 per share, raising a total of RMB 2,834,758,430.19, verified by Sichuan Huaxin Accounting Firm [1][2]. Fund Usage - The total amount raised is RMB 285,292.80 million, with RMB 134,751.11 million allocated for debt repayment and RMB 150,541.69 million for working capital [2]. Fund Storage Method - The company will store the remaining funds (RMB 283,536.92 million) in agreed deposits and notice deposits to improve fund utilization efficiency while maintaining liquidity [2][3]. Risk Control Measures - The company has established a fund management system to ensure the effective and compliant operation of fund storage, with independent directors and supervisory boards having the authority to oversee fund usage [4]. Impact on the Company - The decision to store funds in agreed and notice deposits will not affect the normal use of the raised funds and is expected to enhance fund returns and overall company performance [4]. Review Procedures - Both the board of directors and the supervisory board have approved the storage method, confirming compliance with relevant regulations and ensuring no adverse impact on shareholder interests [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Hongda Co., Ltd. is undergoing a significant acquisition process led by Shudao Investment Group, which aims to increase its stake in the company and has received necessary approvals from relevant authorities [1][2][3]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Shudao Group currently holds 31.31% of the voting rights in Hongda Co., consisting of 486,314,805 shares directly and additional shares through its subsidiaries [3]. - The acquisition involves issuing 609,600,000 new shares, and Shudao Group has committed not to transfer these shares for 36 months post-listing [3][4]. - The acquisition has been approved by the non-related shareholders at the company's second extraordinary general meeting in 2024, allowing Shudao Group to bypass the mandatory offer requirement [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Overview - Shudao Group's total assets reached approximately 150.03 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of about 590.63 million yuan [26]. - The financial performance of Shudao Group over the last three years shows a steady increase in total assets and net assets, indicating a robust financial position [26]. - Hongda Industrial, a subsidiary of Shudao Group, has faced financial difficulties, entering bankruptcy restructuring in 2023, but has since completed its restructuring plan [29][30]. Group 3: Corporate Structure - Shudao Group is a state-owned enterprise under the supervision of the Sichuan Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, holding 100% of its shares [27]. - Hongda Industrial and Tianfu Chunxiao, both acting in concert with Shudao Group, are also under the control of the Sichuan Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [27][30]. - Tianfu Chunxiao was established as a special purpose vehicle to mitigate risks associated with Sichuan Trust Co., Ltd. [30].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock indices, futures, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It provides market trends, influencing factors, and trading strategies for each sector, emphasizing the need to pay attention to policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [2][3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - financial - **Stock Indices**: The previous trading day saw most stock indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.90%. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1309.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.2 billion yuan from the previous day. It is recommended to buy long positions in IF index futures on dips, and there is no arbitrage recommendation [2][4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The yields of some treasury bond futures contracts showed small fluctuations. The economic data is affected by tariff policies, and the export may face pressure in the future. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards liquidity, and the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. It is advisable to enter the market on dips [6][7]. - **Precious Metals**: The "Big and Beautiful Act" has been passed, and the US is about to implement a loose fiscal policy. The silver price shows resilience. The Fed is expected to maintain the interest rate in July and cut it by 25 basis points in September. Attention should be paid to the long - buying opportunities of silver [8][9]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuates downward. The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the inventory is structurally low, providing strong support for the price. However, the short - term upward pressure increases. The reference operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is 79,800 - 81,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price rise is blocked due to inventory accumulation. The domestic and overseas inventory is at a low level, supporting the price, but the inventory increase and weak demand form pressure. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract is 20,500 - 20,800 yuan/ton [12]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rises. The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the TC continues to rise. The recent commodity atmosphere is good, which boosts the zinc price [13][14]. - **Lead**: The lead price shows a strong upward trend. The supply from the primary end is high, and the supply from the secondary end is in short supply. The downstream demand improves marginally. The domestic weak consumption restricts the increase of the SHFE lead price [15]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuates. The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens. It is advisable to sell short on rallies. The short - term reference operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Tin**: The tin price fluctuates. The supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the supply of refined tin is further tightened. The terminal demand is weak. The domestic tin price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rebounds slightly. The production decreases, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The reference operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 62,800 - 65,800 yuan/ton [18]. - **Alumina**: The alumina index falls. The spot price in some regions rises slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [19]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rises slightly. It is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. The spot market is expected to remain weak [20]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rises slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price follows the cost end. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [21]. 3. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price fluctuates strongly. The "anti - involution and capacity - reduction" policy and the expected production reduction in Tangshan lead to the price increase. The inventory of rebar is depleted slowly, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil accumulates slightly. Attention should be paid to policy changes and demand recovery [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price rises. The recent shipment volume and arrival volume decline, and the demand weakens. The inventory changes little. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [25][26]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price rebounds, and the soda ash price is expected to follow the glass to rebound, but the sustainability is limited. The supply of soda ash is still loose, and the inventory pressure is large [27][28]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The manganese silicon price fluctuates, and the ferrosilicon price falls. It is recommended to wait and see before the price breaks through the downward trend line [29]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price falls. The price is still in the downward trend since November 2024. It is necessary to observe whether the price can break through the long - term downward trend line [32]. 4. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price adjusts downward. The bulls focus on the potential supply reduction, while the bears emphasize the weak demand. It is recommended to take a neutral short - term approach and a long - term bullish approach. Attention should be paid to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [35][38]. - **Crude Oil**: The WTI and Brent crude oil prices fall, while the INE crude oil price rises. The geopolitical risk re - emerges, and the oil price rebounds. It is advisable to wait and see [39]. - **Methanol**: The methanol 09 contract price rises. The inventory is low, and the supply is high. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - buying opportunities on dips [40]. - **Urea**: The urea 09 contract price falls. The supply decreases, and the demand may improve slightly. It is advisable to look for short - term long - buying opportunities on dips [41][42]. - **Styrene**: The spot price of styrene falls, and the futures price rises. The supply increases, and the demand decreases in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate downward [43]. - **PVC**: The PVC09 contract price falls. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure in the future [44]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The EG09 contract price falls. The supply and demand both decline, and the inventory decreases. The price is expected to be weak in the future, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [45][46]. - **PTA**: The PTA09 contract price falls. The supply may decrease in July, and the demand is under slight pressure. Attention should be paid to long - buying opportunities following PX on dips [47]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX09 contract price falls. The supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory may be depleted in the third quarter. Attention should be paid to long - buying opportunities following crude oil on dips [48]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE futures price rises. The inventory is gradually depleted, and the price is expected to fluctuate [49]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP futures price rises. The supply may increase, and the demand may decline seasonally. The LL - PP spread is expected to widen in the second half of the year [50]. 5. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price rises in most areas. The price is expected to fall in the north and remain stable in the south. It is recommended to buy short - term long positions on dips for near - term contracts and sell short on rallies for long - term contracts [52]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is generally stable. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to reduce short positions on dips or wait and see in the short term and wait for the opportunity to sell short on rallies in the medium term [53]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean price fluctuates. The domestic soybean meal price rises slightly. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to try long positions on dips at the low end of the cost range [54][56]. - **Oils and Fats**: The domestic oils and fats price fluctuates. The US biodiesel policy supports the price, but the supply increase is expected. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy hearing in July [57][59]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuates strongly. The domestic sugar sales are good, but the external market price falls, and the sugar price may continue to decline [60]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuates narrowly. The US cotton planting area is higher than expected, which is negative for the price. The domestic cotton price is supported by the expected Sino - US negotiation, but the de - stocking speed slows down. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US negotiation results [61][62].

| 铅锌日评20250704：区间整理 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/4 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | | | | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 17,000.00 0.44% | | | | | | | | | | | 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,245.00 0.41% | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅基差 元/吨 -245.00 5.00 | | | | | | | | | | | 元/吨 升贴水-上海 -35.00 - | | | | | | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -26.47 0.30 | | | | | | | | | | | -64.00 -5.10 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 10.00 40.00 | | | | | | | | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -3 ...

研究局限性和风险提示 | | 20250703申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | 摘要 | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 铝： 可能短期内震荡 | | | | 镍： 可能短期内震荡 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 可能短期区 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | 间波动 | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | 锌 | | | | | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 动，关注美国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | 幅波动 | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-03 锌价上方持续受到供给压力 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-18.75 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日上涨10元/吨至22290元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日持平于105元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日持平于22250元/吨。SMM广东 锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌10元/吨至65元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日上涨10元/吨至22220元/吨。 SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日持平于35元/吨。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 期货方面：2025-07-02沪锌主力合约开于22250元/吨，收于22230元/吨，较前一交易日下跌25元/吨，全天交易日成 交128020手，较前一交易日减少50663手，全天交易日持仓129763手，较前一交易日减少4670手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22310元/吨，最低点达到22145元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-06-30，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.06万吨，较上周同期增加0.28万吨。截止20 ...

金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 7 月 3 日星期四 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资 ...