炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：明察宏观 文 财信研究院宏观团队 李沫 胡文艳 伍超明 核心观点 一、价比量更重要：经济、政策以及资产配置新瞄点 其一，价格直接牵动企业盈利与居民收入，是激活"价格-盈利-收入-消费"内循环的关键枢纽，比GDP等 总量指标更能反映经济内生活力。其二，当前"量增价缩"格局不可持续，推动价格回升至合理区间已是 宏观政策必然选择，否则将侵蚀供需两端并阻碍新质生产力发展。其三，A股市场未来的走势，核心在 于建立"价格-盈利-信心"正向循环，价格回升既是启动盈利修复的关键，也是稳定市场预期的压舱石。 二、2026年价格走势分析 （一）趋势研判：2026年物价回升趋势明确。从宏观视角看，供需缺口趋于收敛、M1增速触底回升、 居民就业筑底改善以及产能周期有望上行等四大领先指标，共同为物价回升奠定基础。从价格构成看， 2026年CPI与PPI的"翘尾因素"将显著高于上年；同时"十五五"开局之年，扩大内需政策与供给侧"反内 卷"政策有望形成合力，共同支撑"新涨价因素"，推动价格实现温和回升。 （二）核心判断：上游主导PPI回升，预计2026年二季度 ...

Industry Insights - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has implemented measures to cool down the market, adjusting the price limits and margin requirements for silver, tin, and copper futures, indicating a strong stance against violations [1] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to optimize the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy to boost sales of durable goods such as home appliances and automobiles in 2026 [3] - The game industry in China is experiencing a favorable policy environment, with 177 domestic game licenses approved in 2026, maintaining a high supply level [11] Macro Insights - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for proactive assessment of systemic financial risks and aims to maintain the stability of financial markets through a comprehensive macro-prudential management system [2] Market Commentary - Recent discussions around the "Dragon and Tiger List" system highlight its role in enhancing market transparency and providing valuable information for small investors, which could improve regulatory oversight [4] - The market is expected to see a continued divergence in short-term trends, with technology sector hotspots potentially shifting towards more niche areas [7] - The outlook for the rare earth sector remains positive, with expectations of stable demand and a new inventory replenishment cycle, driven by recent price increases [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronics industry [1] Core Insights - The "hard technology" sector is expected to perform well under the influence of AI, with domestic computing chips, AI-PCB, AIDC supporting facilities, and AI edge SoC chip design/testing showing rapid growth in 2024 and maintaining high growth in Q1-Q3 of 2025 [4] - The valuation system of the technology industry is likely to be restructured due to the ongoing competition between major powers, particularly in semiconductor manufacturing, equipment, and design, which are areas of low domestic production [4] - Computing power remains the most important theme for the year, with a focus on AI-PCB and AI optical modules, suggesting investment in companies like Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, and others [4] - Some consumer electronics stocks, particularly those in the "Apple supply chain," are seen as having good value due to recent price corrections, with potential for performance and valuation recovery driven by AIoT and automotive electronics [4] Summary by Sections AI and Computing Power - The demand for AI computing technology is increasing, with PCB manufacturers achieving significant breakthroughs in AI server applications [22] - The market for AI chips is expected to grow, with the Chinese market projected to reach approximately 342.46 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a 10.7% year-on-year growth [44] Semiconductor and PCB Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards more diverse application scenarios, with automotive electronics and IoT driving growth [18] - The PCB equipment market is expected to reach 29.025 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 11.89% year-on-year, and is projected to reach 34.709 billion yuan by 2026 [27] Consumer Electronics - The CIS market is recovering, driven by demand from smartphones, security, and automotive sectors, with a focus on high-end products [46] - AI is providing new growth potential for consumer electronics, with ODM companies gaining competitive advantages [47]

证券研究报告 | 金工专题报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 27 日 资金流向混债二级基金，周期和大金融占比提升 ——主动型公募基金 2025 年四季报分析 投资要点： 主动权益基金规模萎缩，含权债基发行热情高涨 2025 年四季度，公募基金总规模变动不大，但不同类别的基金规模发生明显切换： 投资者因追求稳健收益，资金从高波动的主动权益基金（较上季度规模缩减 1823 亿 元）和低风险的纯债基金（较上季度规模缩减 868 亿元）流出，向中低风险的含权 债基（较上季度规模增加 2398 亿元）迁移，与此同时，含权债基的新发热度升高， 发行数量创下 2020 年以来单季度新高。 证券分析师 主动权益基金 2025 年四季度主动权益基金对港股的配置热情明显下降，从 2025 年二季度的 20.44%持续降低到四季度的 16.47%；对于创业板的配置意愿增强，由 2025 年一季 度的 13.46%抬升至 20.85%。 相比 2025 年三季度，主动权益基金显著增配周期板块，周期板块占比升至 28.31%， 环比增加 4.95pct；大金融板块占比由三季度的 4.57%提升 ...

【智通财经1月27日早间新闻精选】 1、国新办1月26日就2025年商务工作及运行情况举行新闻发布会。 商务部表示，2026年将深入实施提振消费专项行动，优化实施消费品以旧换新，促进汽车、家电、数码 和智能产品等大宗耐用商品消费。 2、商务部对外贸易司司长王志华在国新办新闻发布会上表示，下一 步，将创新发展数字贸易，启动建设国家数字贸易示范区，制定数字贸易相关标准，推动国内国际标准 相通相融，推动服务外包数字化转型，培育壮大数字贸易经营主体，办好全球数字贸易博览会。 3、中 国人民银行副行长邹澜1月26日在第19届亚洲金融论坛上表示，中国人民银行支持香港金管局将人民币 业务资金安排规模由1000亿元增加至2000亿元。 4、上期所、上期能源发布通知，本周三收盘结算时 起，铜、国际铜、铝期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为9%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为 10%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为11%。 5、中国人民银行召开2026年宏观审慎工作会议。会议要 求，前瞻性研判系统性金融风险隐患，创新丰富政策工具箱，维护金融市场稳健运行和金融体系整体稳 定。 6、上期所发布通知，1月26日夜盘交易起，白银期货主要合约日 ...

Group 1 - The acquisition deal planned by the company took 16 months to negotiate but was ultimately terminated after multiple adjustments to the proposal [1] - The initial proposal in January 2025 indicated a purchase price of 1.491 billion yuan for 71% of Keke Electronics, with 591 million yuan to be paid through share issuance and an additional fundraising of up to 500 million yuan [2] - The purchase price was subsequently reduced multiple times, first to 1.42 billion yuan in May 2025 and then to 1.314 billion yuan in October 2025, totaling a decrease of 180 million yuan within a year [3] Group 2 - Keke Electronics, established in July 1997, specializes in the research, production, and sales of high-reliability microcircuit modules, with a registered capital of 336.46 million yuan [6] - The company faced challenges, including a withdrawal of its IPO application in April 2024 after two rounds of inquiries from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, leading to a decline in its performance in 2024 [7] - Financial data shows Keke Electronics' revenue from 2022 to 2024 was 272.37 million yuan, 307.56 million yuan, and 163.97 million yuan, with net profits of 162.79 million yuan, 166.98 million yuan, and 99.92 million yuan respectively [7] Group 3 - The company, located in Guangzhou, has been under dual pressure from performance decline and regulatory scrutiny, with a projected net loss of 11.5 million to 8 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 152.38% to 175.30% [8] - The company received an administrative regulatory decision from the Guangdong Securities Regulatory Bureau due to issues related to undisclosed shareholding and improper use of raised funds, leading to corrective measures and warnings for senior management [8] - Following the termination of the acquisition, the company's stock price fell by 5.92% to 47.04 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.136 billion yuan as of January 26 [11]

【头条要闻】 贵金属惊天逆转！黄金白银刷新历史新高后巨震，全球资金在躲什么？ 黄金与白银在刷新历史高点后大幅回调，现货白银在创下117.74美元/盎司的历史新高后一路回调，此前 一度涨近14%。现货黄金一度向下跌破5000美元/盎司，此前曾上涨2.5%，盘中最高突破5110美元/盎 司。 大有期货表示，贵金属市场延续强势，主要受到多重因素共同驱动，短期需警惕技术性回调风险，长期 前景仍与全球宏观政策及去美元化趋势紧密相连。申万宏源证券认为，短期来看，金价因地缘因素快速 走高，该因素缓和后并未明显回落，反而创新高，反映出短期较强的势头。中长期视角来看，黄金已逐 渐从"避险资产"转型为"全球资产配置核心工具"，央行购金、去美元化、美债信用风险三重逻辑未变， 中长期配置价值仍存。 证券时报头条评论：以差异化披露推动"龙虎榜"高质量发展 据新华社报道，印度东部西孟加拉邦近期出现尼帕病毒感染病例，目前已报告5例确诊病例，其中一名 患者病情危重。泰国、尼泊尔等国已在机场和边境口岸加强防疫检测。 报道称，近100人被要求居家隔离，感染者正在该邦首府加尔各答及周边医院接受治疗，其中一名患者 病情危重。据世界卫生组织（WHO） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing concentration of public fund holdings in specific sectors, particularly technology and advanced manufacturing, driven by a consensus on macroeconomic conditions and industry trends [2][4][6]. Group 1: Measurement of Fund Concentration - Public fund concentration is typically assessed through metrics such as the proportion of top holdings (top 10, 50, 100) relative to the fund's net value, indicating a high concentration in certain stocks [1]. - Industry allocation or overweight ratios are also used; a concentration exceeding 30% in a single industry or deviating from historical averages by more than 10% signals increased concentration [1]. - Fund inflows and trading behaviors, such as new funds heavily investing in the same stocks, provide additional insights into concentration trends [1]. Group 2: Reasons for Concentration - The convergence of macroeconomic and industry trend assessments among institutional investors leads to increased fund concentration [2]. - A positive feedback mechanism exists where concentrated holdings attract more capital, enhancing fund size and potentially driving asset prices higher, reinforcing market narratives [2]. Group 3: Global Perspective - Institutional concentration in holdings is common globally, with examples from the U.S. market where significant funds are allocated to major tech stocks, reflecting a similar trend [3]. - The S&P 500's top 10 stocks account for approximately 40% of the index, marking the highest concentration since 2000 [3]. Group 4: Characteristics of Current Fund Concentration - Recent fund concentration trends show a strong focus on technology and advanced manufacturing sectors, with historical patterns indicating that concentration often correlates with industry profitability expectations [4][6]. - The current concentration is characterized by a significant increase in holdings in the semiconductor sector and a notable rise in the electronic industry from 12% in Q4 2023 to 26% in Q3 2025 [6][7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The outlook for fund concentration remains contingent on corporate fundamentals, with ongoing trends in artificial intelligence and domestic self-sufficiency expected to drive long-term investment strategies [7]. - Market conditions, including liquidity, external interest rates, and institutional investment patterns, will influence future fund allocation and concentration [7][8].

Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce will optimize the implementation of the old-for-new consumption policy to boost the consumption of durable goods such as automobiles and home appliances [1] - In 2026, the Ministry will conduct over 20 "Buy in China" themed activities and support local events to create a strong consumption atmosphere [1] - The Ministry aims to accelerate the development of international consumption centers and improve the consumption environment through new business models and scenarios [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The U.S. stock market saw gains with the Dow Jones up 313.69 points, or 0.64%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also rose [2] - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs before experiencing a pullback, with COMEX gold futures rising by $25.10 to $5004.8 per ounce [2] - The NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.63%, indicating a decline in popular Chinese stocks [2] Group 3: Company Developments - Tencent's CEO emphasized the importance of WeChat as a core asset and called for patience with the growth of Video Accounts and WeChat e-commerce [3] - Tencent is exploring AI integration across its various business units, with a focus on enhancing user experience and content quality [3] - KANAT Optical plans to issue 27 million shares at a discount of approximately 11.1%, raising about HKD 1.4 billion [7] Group 4: Industry Insights - The storage market is experiencing significant price increases, with NAND flash prices expected to rise by over 100% in Q1 2026 [5] - TrendForce predicts NAND Flash prices will increase by 33% to 38%, while DRAM prices are expected to rise by 55% to 60% [5] - High demand and supply constraints are leading to a rare price imbalance in the DRAM market, with spot prices significantly exceeding contract prices [5] Group 5: M&A Activity - Zijin Mining announced plans to acquire Allied Gold Corporation for approximately CAD 5.5 billion (around RMB 280 billion), targeting key gold mining assets [8] - The acquisition includes significant gold resources and production capabilities, with expectations of increased gold output in the coming years [8]

Group 1 - US stock markets saw collective gains with the Nasdaq up 0.43%, Dow Jones up 0.64%, and S&P 500 up 0.5% [3] - Major tech stocks had mixed performances, with Apple, Oracle, and Meta rising over 2%, while Intel fell over 5% and AMD and Tesla dropped over 3% [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.62%, with Baidu down over 3%, Xpeng down over 2%, and Alibaba down over 1% [3] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for proactive assessment of systemic financial risks and innovation in policy tools to maintain market stability [8] - The Ministry of Commerce expressed willingness to manage differences and promote cooperation with the US to ensure stable and sustainable economic relations [8] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is set to release data on employment and social development for 2025 on January 27 [2] Group 3 - Tencent announced that its cloud business achieved profitability in 2025, indicating a strong competitive position in the market [16] - The company plans to enhance the AI capabilities of its WeChat ecosystem while maintaining user privacy and security [16] - Tencent is launching a cash activity worth 1 billion yuan during the Spring Festival to boost user engagement [16] Group 4 - The EU has approved a ban on Russian natural gas imports, set to take effect on January 1, 2027, for liquefied natural gas and September 30, 2027, for pipeline gas [14] - The EU Commission has initiated a formal investigation into the X platform regarding potential risks associated with its AI chatbot [23] - WhatsApp has been designated as a "very large online platform" under the EU's Digital Services Act, subjecting it to stricter regulations [23] Group 5 - The recent earthquake in Gansu province prompted a national emergency response, with no immediate reports of casualties [12] - The Ministry of Foreign Affairs advised Chinese citizens to avoid travel to Japan during the upcoming Spring Festival due to safety concerns [7] - The number of domestic trips taken by Chinese residents in 2025 reached 6.522 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% [9]