投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂震荡企稳 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2601.GFE 收盘价 90480 元/吨，较前日下 跌 540 元/吨（-0.59%），近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 碳酸锂 | 日报 1. 产业动态 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 92090 元/吨，较前日下跌 0.29%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 (10th) Qidian Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and the Qidian Golden Ding Award Ceremony aims to address industry challenges and showcase technological advancements in lithium batteries and energy storage solutions, while fostering collaboration among industry players [3][4]. Industry Developments - In early 2025, BMW announced the upcoming installation of large cylindrical batteries in 2026, prompting a surge in the industry to develop 46 series large cylindrical batteries [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released new safety standards for electric vehicle batteries, sparking widespread discussions on battery performance [2]. - Several companies have begun mass production of full-tab cylindrical batteries, which are expected to find applications in electric vehicles, power tools, and smart home devices due to their high rate and long lifespan advantages [2]. - Solid-state batteries continue to gain attention for their high safety and energy density, maintaining high interest levels in 2025 [2]. Storage Sector Insights - The cancellation of mandatory energy storage policies by the government has raised concerns about future demand for storage batteries [2]. - The 314Ah battery is gradually replacing the 280Ah as the mainstream cell, with companies like CATL and EVE Energy releasing cells with capacities exceeding 500Ah, indicating a trend towards larger capacity storage cells [2]. - The U.S. tariff policy imposed in 2025 has impacted the global energy storage industry [2]. Emerging Applications - The debut of humanoid robots at the Spring Festival Gala in early 2025 has spurred interest in batteries for humanoid robots, leading various battery companies to explore this new direction [2]. - New low-altitude economy policies are emerging, accelerating the development of the eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) industry [2]. Material Innovations - The 9 series ultra-high nickel ternary cathodes are being widely adopted, while lithium manganese iron phosphate cathodes are being tested in commercial vehicles and two-wheeled vehicles [2]. - The application of silicon-based anodes in conjunction with full-tab technology is increasing [2]. Event Highlights - The event will feature over 2000 attendees and 60+ keynote speakers discussing core issues and technological breakthroughs in the lithium battery industry [5]. - The 10th Qidian Golden Ding Award will be held concurrently to recognize outstanding contributions to the lithium battery sector [5][9]. - The event will include nine specialized forums covering various topics, including cylindrical battery technology, soft-pack batteries, and new materials and processes [7][8]. Award Details - The Qidian Golden Ding Award aims to encourage innovation in the lithium battery industry and recognize companies that have made significant contributions [9]. - The award selection process includes initial assessments and final evaluations leading up to the award ceremony on December 19, 2025 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing development of lithium resource projects in Xilingol League, particularly focusing on the 80,000 tons per year lithium iron phosphate project, which is expected to commence production in 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: Project Development - The lithium resource comprehensive utilization project is being developed by Inner Mongolia Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., which holds a 70% stake and was established in April 2022 with a registered capital of 500 million yuan [3]. - The project includes multiple components: a 600,000 tons per year lithium niobium tantalum mining project, a 20,000 tons per year lithium carbonate project, an 80,000 tons per year lithium iron phosphate project, and a 2 GWh battery cell and PACK project [3]. - The 600,000 tons per year lithium niobium tantalum mining project has already commenced production, while the first batch of products from the 20,000 tons per year lithium carbonate project was successfully produced in July this year [3]. Group 2: Resource Potential - The Xilingol League is noted for its rich lithium resources, with the core area of the mining zone covering 600 square kilometers and an estimated total ore resource of 9.2 billion tons, with potential reserves reaching approximately 17 billion tons [3]. - Currently, the cumulative identified resource in the developed mining area is 72.443 million tons, with lithium oxide content amounting to 450,000 tons [3]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The introduction of multiple lithium battery projects in Xilingol League, including energy storage battery manufacturing projects from various companies, is expected to reach a combined capacity of 16 GWh [4]. - Ganfeng Lithium has reported significant financial growth, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 6.249 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.10%, and a net profit of 557 million yuan, up 364.02% [4]. - The lithium battery industry is entering a new competitive cycle, with Ganfeng Lithium positioned to benefit from the rising prices of lithium carbonate, which have surpassed 100,000 yuan [5].

Core Viewpoint - The battery industry is entering an "intelligent transformation era" at an unprecedented speed, driven by AI technology that is fundamentally reshaping research and development, manufacturing processes, and safety standards in the sector [5][9]. Group 1: AI-Driven Transformation - AI is no longer just a buzzword; it is deeply integrated into every aspect of the battery industry, from energy management to intelligent manufacturing [4][5]. - The traditional battery R&D process, which relies on "first principles," is being revolutionized by AI, allowing for the discovery of complex mathematical patterns from experimental data, thus enhancing efficiency [6][8]. - SES AI's "smart box" integrates supercomputing and multiple modules to cover the entire R&D process, significantly reducing resource consumption and accelerating production capacity [8][9]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Challenges - The energy bottleneck for AI-driven products has shifted from "insufficient capacity" to an overall upgrade in structure, materials, and battery management [9][11]. - The industry is moving towards maximizing the value of individual battery cells, focusing on increasing energy density while ensuring safety [11][12]. - The trend in the battery industry is towards "active safety" at the cell level, moving from passive monitoring to proactive measures that can detect potential risks early [17][18]. Group 3: Innovations and Applications - Companies like Penghui Energy are integrating AI into battery lifecycle management, utilizing advanced algorithms for predictive maintenance and operational efficiency [14][15]. - Yigan Technology is proposing a Battery Design Automation (BDA) approach to overcome the complexities in battery R&D, aiming to enhance precision and efficiency through a combination of physical simulation and AI [20][21]. - Dayun Technology emphasizes the importance of X-ray detection in ensuring battery safety, leveraging AI to enhance defect identification and quality assurance processes [26][27]. Group 4: Future Directions - The future of the battery industry will depend on the successful integration of digital quality, AI platformization, and private deployment to create a stable and iterative infrastructure [23][24]. - The industry is urged to build a data-sharing ecosystem to address data silos, which will enhance the application of AI technologies in quality control and other areas [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned in the upstream segment of the photovoltaic industry, primarily serving equipment manufacturers, and is experiencing a challenging environment with low order volumes despite ongoing industry efforts to mitigate internal competition [1] Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is currently pushing against internal competition, which mainly benefits downstream component manufacturers [1] - The company's performance improvement is minimally impacted by the positive developments in the downstream sector [1] - Photovoltaic orders remain at a low point within the industry [1] Group 2: Lithium Battery Industry - The company is actively expanding its presence in the lithium battery sector, resulting in a year-on-year increase in lithium battery orders [1]

Group 1 - Lithium carbonate prices have sharply declined from a peak of 100,000 yuan per ton, leading to a significant downturn in lithium mining stocks, which have fallen for three consecutive days [1][3] - Major lithium stocks such as Rongjie Co., Dawi Co., and Tianqi Lithium have experienced substantial losses, with some stocks hitting the daily limit down [1][2] - The current price of lithium carbonate futures is reported at 90,680 yuan per ton, reflecting a drop of over 3% [3][4] Group 2 - Concerns about the mid-term supply-demand balance in the lithium market have resurfaced, with Goldman Sachs downgrading Ganfeng Lithium's H-shares from neutral to "sell" due to downward price risks [7][8] - Goldman Sachs has revised its profit forecasts for Ganfeng Lithium for 2026-2027 down by 36%-42% and predicts a loss in 2025, while also lowering the forecast for lithium carbonate prices to $9,500 per ton for the second half of 2026 [8][9] - The report indicates that while the lithium market fundamentals have improved, a supply surplus is expected in the second half of 2026, which will exert downward pressure on prices [8][12] Group 3 - The recent downturn in lithium prices is attributed to a combination of policy adjustments, a reversal in supply-demand expectations, and a shift in market sentiment from irrational exuberance to panic selling [10][11] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced adjustments to trading fees and limits for lithium carbonate futures, contributing to a cooling market [10][11] - Current market conditions show a narrowing supply-demand gap, with November's lithium carbonate supply at approximately 115,000 tons and demand at 128,000 tons, indicating a shortfall of about 13,000 tons [11][12]

Core Insights - The domestic market is expected to benefit from the increase in electric vehicle battery capacity and the continuous expansion of new scenarios, leading to sustained high growth in demand for power batteries [1] - The European market is anticipated to accelerate recovery in demand with the initiation of a new car cycle [1] - By 2025, the supply-demand relationship in the industry chain is expected to improve further, with leading manufacturers operating at near full capacity, resulting in price increases in energy storage cells and related components [2] Group 1: Market Trends - A new growth cycle is emerging, with energy storage expected to become a core growth driver [1] - The domestic market for new energy vehicles is benefiting from increased electric vehicle battery capacity and the expansion of new applications, while the European market is set to recover due to the new car cycle [1] - The introduction of capacity pricing policies in various provinces in China is expected to enhance the economic viability of independent energy storage, with demand anticipated to exceed expectations by 2026 [1] Group 2: Supply and Pricing Dynamics - By 2025, the supply-demand relationship is expected to improve significantly, with leading manufacturers nearly at full production capacity, leading to price increases in energy storage cells and other components [2] - Capital expenditures in the battery sector are expected to remain high, but overall growth will align with demand, while new capacity in the materials sector is limited, potentially leading to further increases in utilization rates [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - The industrialization of all-solid-state sulfide batteries is entering the pilot testing phase in 2025, with semi-solid oxide/polymer composite routes accelerating [3] - By 2026, small-scale production and trial installations of all-solid-state sulfide batteries are expected, with advancements in process routes and material systems [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment strategy focuses on three main lines: 1. Anticipating energy storage demand to exceed expectations, driving a reversal trend in the sector, with key recommendations in lithium battery materials, batteries, and related components [4] 2. Emphasizing new technologies as high-growth investment directions, particularly solid-state and sodium batteries and their supply chains [4] 3. Looking at the recovery of charging station construction under policy support, with new scenarios potentially leading to value reassessment [4]

碳酸锂周报： 去库幅度不及预期，碳酸锂高位回落 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2025.11.21 本周碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【宏观概况】中国11月一年期与五年期LPR维持不变，连续6个月保持不变。美国9月非农就业人口增长11.9万人，是预期5.1万的 两倍多，与此同时8月份新增就业人数从增长2.2万人下修2.6万，至减少0.4万人，7月和8月非农就业人数合计下修3.3万人。失 业率上升至4.4%，创四年来最高记录。受大规模经济刺激计划预期影响，日本国债收益率持续攀升，引发外资抛售潮。市场担忧 日本财政健康状况恶化，刺激政策可能推高债务风险。 【供给端】本周碳酸锂产量继续增加，周度产量维持在2.4万以上并创下年内新高，行业平均开工率回升至52%以上仍有上行空间。 2025年10月中国碳酸锂进口数量为2.38万吨，环比增加21.9%，同比增加3.0%。锂辉石进口数量为65.17万吨，环比减少8.3%。 【需求端】乘联分会发布数据，11月1-16日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售55.4万辆，同比增长2%，较上月同期增长7%，今年以来 累计零售1070.3万辆，同比增长21%；全国乘用车厂商新 ...

Group 1: 嘉元科技 - Shipment target for 2026 is 17wt, with expected capacity of 13-14wt by the end of 2025, considering cautious expansion due to current profits [1] - Solid copper foil shipments are projected at approximately 100t in 2025 and 1kt in 2026 [1] - Single order prices have increased by 1-2k, while long-term contracts with major clients have not yet adjusted; net profit per ton is expected to be 2-3k next year, potentially higher if price increases are realized [1] Group 2: 中一科技 - Lithium battery and electronic shipments are targeted at 6wt+ and 1-1.5wt for 2025, with 6-6.5wt and 2wt for 2026; current capacities are 4wt and 1.5wt [1] - Price increases of 1-2k have been implemented for small clients, while major clients' prices are determined through semi-annual bidding; a planned price increase of 2k is expected in December [1] - The company aims to establish a self-generated negative electrode pilot line by mid-2026 [1] Group 3: 诺德股份 - Monthly shipments have increased from 5-5.5kt before August to 6k in September and 7kt in October, with projections of 8kt+ in November and December [1] - Total capacity is currently 14wt, with an expected increase of 1.5wt next year; price increases are anticipated due to supply-demand gaps [1] - High-end products, particularly 4.5μm, accounted for over 60% in H1 2025 and are expected to exceed 70% currently [1] Group 4: 天际股份 - Shipment target for next year is over 5wt, with current shipments between 3.8w-3.9wt and monthly shipments around 3.8-4k [2] - Some core clients have accepted monthly price negotiations, with December prices expected to be no lower than 15w [2] - Lithium sulfide production is expected to reach 20-30 tons next year, with a unit price exceeding 200w [2] Group 5: 安达科技 - Shipment targets are set at 11wt for 2025 and 15wt for 2026, with full production expected by Q1 2026 [2] - The company plans to finalize pricing for H1 2026 by mid-December, with small clients currently paying 2-3k more than large clients [2] - Expected processing fee for iron lithium in 2026 is around 1.6w, with a price increase of 2k anticipated [2] Group 6: 英联股份 - A procurement agreement for composite aluminum foil for solid-state applications has been signed, with expected production of 2kw in 2026 and 3kw in 2027 [2] - The total value of the agreement is estimated at 3-4 billion, with the first batch expected to ship in December [2] - The lithium metal negative electrode production line is set to begin installation in December, with plans for batch product supply by Q1 2026 [2]

2025 年 11 月 24 日 星期一 ➢ 每日大市点评 11 月 21 日，港股受隔夜美股下跌拖累，继续下探。周五恒生指数最终收报 25,220 点，跌 615 点（2.3%）；恒生科技指 数下跌 179 点（3.2%），收报 5,395 点；全天大市成交额扩大至 2,857 亿元。港股通净流入大幅减少至 1.1 亿元。盘面 上，科技股下跌幅度较大，腾讯（700 HK）下跌 1.8%；阿里巴巴（9988 HK）跌 4.6%，中芯国际（981 HK）跌 6.4%。国 内磷酸铁锂行业推进"反内卷"，中国化学与物理电源产业协会要求企业应将协会 11 月 18 日披露的行业平均成本区间 作为报价的重要参考，不要突破成本红线开展低价倾销。锂电相关个股受压，赣锋锂业（1772 HK）周五跌 12.5%；天齐 锂业（9696 HK）跌 11.9%；宁德时代（3750 HK）解禁后连续下跌，周五跌 3.7%。领展房产基金（823 HK）由于宣布减 少派息，令投资者失望，连续两天放量下跌。 美股方面，英伟达季度业绩强劲，令市场对人工智能前景重启乐观情绪；加上延迟发布的美国 9 月非农业职位增长远高 于预期，带动美股周四高开 ...