金融期货早评 宏观：关注下任美联储主席人选公布情况 【市场资讯】1）央行副行长陆磊：新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生 态体系将于 2026 年 1 月 1 日正式启动实施。2）白银跳水，猜疑四起，传闻称某系统重要 性银行因白银期货空头爆仓，有猜测认为涉事方为欧洲大行。3）特朗普：正考虑以"严重 失职"为由起诉鲍威尔，1 月或公布下任美联储主席人选。4）俄罗斯称乌 91 架无人机袭击 普京官邸，泽连斯基否认，特朗普"很生气"。5）美军首次袭击委内瑞拉陆地目标？特朗普 称美军摧毁一"大型设施"。6）特朗普会晤内塔尼亚胡，就伊朗核问题再次发出威胁。 【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国 GDP 数据公布，三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3%，创两年最快 增速，整体表现相对强劲，在一定程度上打击了降息预期。美国就业市场回温，上周首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落，整体数据显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。接下来重点关注特朗普 公布的下任美联储主席人选情况。国内方面，政治局会议与中央经济工作会议延续"稳中求 进"总基调，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策；明年重点工作以扩大内 需为首要任务，核心在于推进城乡居 ...

晨报 碳酸锂 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 成 材：武秋婷 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂期货走势剧烈波动，日内振幅超 13%。主力合约高开 高走，随后盘面快速回落，触及跌停板 11.74 万元/吨，日内跌幅超过 8%， 收至 118820 元/吨。成交活跃度 ...

负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：钢厂第 4 轮调降焦价 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 从基本面来看，上周煤矿存在年底减量动作，焦企开始适量补库，但 市场整体成交依旧乏力，矿端库存继续累积。上周炼焦煤矿原煤产量环比 回落 5.4 万吨，精煤日产量环比回落 1.8 万吨；原煤和精煤分别累库 4.2 万吨和 10.1 万吨。进口端，上周甘其毛都日均通关量 19.44 万吨，环比 前一周下降 1.26 万吨，同比增加 13.78 万吨，后半周通关量下滑明显， 当前口岸监管区库存处于偏高平。根据中蒙两国双边协定，12 月 29 日蒙 古民族解放和独立日三大口岸闭关一天，12 月 30 日恢复通关；1 月 1 日 元旦三大口岸闭关一天，1 月 2 日恢复通关。需求暂稳，钢厂高炉日均铁 水产量止降，为 226.58 万吨，环比微增 0.03 万吨，同比下降 1.29 万吨， 预计短期维持该水平。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 观点：近期市场情绪稍有回暖，价格迎阶段性反弹，但基本面表现仍 偏弱势，缺少对价格反弹的支撑，元旦节前 ...

在低碳发展的大背景下，重污染企业能否借力绿色投资实现经济与环境双赢？近日，无锡商业职业技术 学院一支大学生创新创业团队给出了肯定答案。通过对国内钢铁龙头企业BG公司的深入分析，他们用 数据与案例揭示了绿色投资如何从"成本负担"转向"价值引擎"。 调研初衷：探索真问题，寻找新路径 这支年轻团队用扎实的工作证明：在可持续发展的道路上，青年学子同样可以立足现实、洞察关键，用 智慧与行动参与建设更绿色的未来。他们的探索，是一次专业训练，更是一份肩负时代责任的生动答 卷。(无锡商业职业技术学院邓媛媛马天茹朱天宇张津铭) 真切体会：刷新认知，坚定信心 "最触动我们的是，环保不是'烧钱'，而是可以通过节能降耗、技术升级、产品创新来反哺企业竞争力 的。"一位成员分享道。在分析BG公司节能技术应用和绿色产品销量增长数据时，学生们深刻体会到， 前瞻性的绿色战略能够帮助企业重塑优势、开拓市场。 实践成效：提供镜鉴，贡献智慧 实践表明，有效的绿色投资能有效推动企业发展。团队据此提出，企业应主动强化环保责任、整合创新 资源；政府层面则需完善信息披露、畅通绿色融资。这份报告不仅锻炼了学生的科研与实践能力，其结 论也为同类企业的转型决策和 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices are supported by production cuts and strong raw materials but lack upward momentum due to weak demand. The price range for rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils between 3150 - 3350. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and avoid going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The supply will remain high in the short term, but the demand is limited. The price range is expected to be between 770 - 840. Short-term long positions can be attempted [4]. Coke Industry - Coke supply and demand have weakened. It is recommended to short the coke 2605 contract on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [7]. Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal prices are expected to decline. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the strategy of longing coking coal and shorting coke [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon supply and demand contradictions still exist, and prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot-rolled coil spot and futures prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the rebar spot price in East China increased from 3290 to 3300 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged, while the cost and profit of different steel products showed different trends. For example, the cost of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar decreased by 17 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot-rolled coils decreased by 16 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the production of five major steel products decreased slightly. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, and the rebar inventory decreased by 4.0% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 19.8%, the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.2%, the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 2.9%, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils increased by 2.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased, and the basis of some varieties decreased. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 2.8%, the global shipping volume decreased by 3.6%, and the national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 0.5%, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 4.9%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 1.1%, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.6%, and the available days of inventory for 64 steel mills decreased by 9.5% [4]. Coke Industry Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - class wet - quenched coke decreased, and the coke futures prices also decreased. The coking profit decreased [7]. Supply - The weekly coke production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, and the steel mills' willingness to suppress coke prices increased [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.4%, and the inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal and Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased slightly, and the coking coal futures prices decreased [8]. Supply - The weekly production of raw coal and clean coal decreased slightly, and the coal mine inventory increased [8]. Demand - The pig iron output remained stable, the coking profit decreased, and the coking plant's production decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - The inventories of washing plants, coking enterprises, coal mines, ports, steel mills, and ports all increased [8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures increased slightly, and the spot prices remained unchanged [9]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions remained stable, and the production profits remained unchanged [9]. Supply - The weekly ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese production increased slightly [9]. Demand - The pig iron output remained unchanged, the steel mill's procurement volume decreased slightly, and the demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained stable [9]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory of ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly [9].

为放大"一箱制"效能，鞍山钢铁构建"产、销、运"协同机制，"鞍山—鲅鱼圈"循环专组等单元使装车效 率提升50%；业务从卷钢延伸至煤炭、焦炭"散改集"，开辟跨港海铁联运线路，实现"去钢回煤"双程满 载，纳入水渣微粉等新货类并推动球团矿等"公转铁"，拓展绿色运输版图。同时，打造智慧物流平台， 打通"路港船企"信息壁垒，实现货物全程可视化管理，通过算法优化运输组织等再降本1100万元。 目前，鞍山钢铁研发的新型载运单元已推广至全国10个铁路局、十余个港口、23家钢厂及铝卷等行业。 作为交通运输部交通强国项目，"一箱制"探索以标准引领、技术创新与数字化转型为支撑，为全国交通 物流降本提质增效贡献"鞍钢方案"。 本报讯 记者崔治报道 在物流业迈向高质量发展的今天，一场以"一箱到底"为核心的运输模式正从鞍山 钢铁集团有限公司向全国辐射。依托链主企业优势，企业大力推行多式联运"一箱制"综合运输服务，截 至今年11月，已实现发运量204万吨、近8万标箱，同比增长15%，降低全社会物流成本1.04亿元，相关 模式获评省第二批交通物流降本提质增效典型案例，为行业提供了可复制推广的新路径。 针对大吨位钢卷传统运输倒装多、成本高、易 ...

Core Viewpoint - The black commodity market is currently experiencing a weak and volatile pattern, with a decline in overall market volatility and an increase in cautious sentiment as the focus shifts from strong policy expectations to the realities of a weak off-season [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The volatility of steel prices has significantly narrowed due to a lack of strong supply-demand contradictions that could support a trend in the market [1] - On the supply side, the industry lacks strong top-down policies to counteract internal competition, leading to production adjustments primarily driven by market profit and loss [1] - The apparent consumption of rebar continues to decline, and the demand for hot-rolled coils is also weak, maintaining a just-in-time purchasing rhythm in the spot market [1] Group 2: Macro Economic Environment - The macroeconomic policy remains stable, with expectations for large-scale stimulus cooling down, leading the market to focus more on the actual implementation of policies and marginal improvements in micro data [4] - Trading behavior based solely on macro optimism or pessimism has decreased, with the current focus shifting to immediate responses to inventory and spot transactions [4] Group 3: Cost and Supply Factors - The cost side is unstable, with increasing supply pressures on carbon and iron elements, particularly due to significant increases in imported coal from Mongolia and Russia, which have alleviated previous regional supply tensions [4][5] - The supply of iron elements is becoming more relaxed, with increased shipments from overseas mines and high port arrival volumes, leading to a cautious demand outlook [5] - The current low profitability of steel mills and pessimistic winter storage expectations have resulted in a lack of motivation for replenishing iron ore inventories, maintaining a low inventory production strategy [5] Group 4: Policy Impact on Exports - Recent discussions regarding steel export licensing management have not led to significant price fluctuations, as the core intention of the policy is to regulate export order and avoid chaotic low-price competition among domestic enterprises [10] - The policy aims to shift the market focus from quantity to quality and efficiency, becoming a continuous variable affecting the internal and external trade landscape of steel [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The current steel market is in a narrow range with a ceiling supported by high visible inventories and limited terminal consumption capacity [8] - Breaking this high inventory, low volatility, and tight balance pattern will require more policy support, with a focus on either constraints on steel production or improvements in terminal demand [8] - The recommended trading strategy is to adopt a range-bound approach, with rebar prices expected to be between 3050 and 3200 yuan/ton and hot-rolled coil prices between 3200 and 3350 yuan/ton, closely monitoring inventory depletion rates and cost sustainability [8]

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 30 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：12月29日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2605 | 172 ...

2025 年 12 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 螺纹钢：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间 震荡 热轧卷板：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间 震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,130 | 22 | 0.71 | | | HC2605 | 3,287 | 18 | 0.55 | | 期 货 | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 1,051,146 | 1,530,792 | -3,632 | | | HC2605 | 511,982 | 1,276,297 | 43,907 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 33 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1] - Black building materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper suggests holding long positions cautiously and holding a light position during holidays; aluminum advises more observation; nickel suggests observation or shorting on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; polyolefins are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend [1] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend; apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways [1] - Agriculture and animal husbandry: Live pigs suggest a short - selling strategy on rallies for near - term contracts and a cautious bullish view for far - term contracts; eggs suggest that breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies for the 02 contract; corn suggests caution on chasing highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain - holding entities; soybean meal suggests a bullish view on dips for near - term 03 contracts and a bearish view for far - term 05 contracts; oils suggest gradually closing long positions and caution on chasing highs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product, including policy changes, production and inventory levels, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding trading strategies [1] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: They are expected to move sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term. The Chinese government's fiscal policy is positive, but industrial profit decline and market rotation may cause short - term fluctuations. Attention should be paid to trading volume changes [5] - **Treasury bonds**: They are expected to move sideways. The previous driving factors of the market are fading, and there is a lack of significant positive factors to drive a new trend. Attention should be paid to the strength changes between assets [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal**: It is expected to move sideways. The market is in a game between strong negative factors (high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand) and weak positive factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [7] - **Rebar**: It is expected to move sideways. Futures prices are in a narrow range. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [7] - **Glass**: It is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is expected to decrease due to production line closures, and there is short - term speculation opportunity around the New Year's Day. However, in the long term, the supply - demand situation is not conducive to a continuous price increase [9] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: It has reached a new high. It is expected to be high - level sideways before the New Year's Day holiday. It is bullish in the long term but there is a risk of short - term correction. Cautious long - holding and light - position holiday - holding are recommended [10] - **Aluminum**: It is in a rebound. The fundamentals are still weak, and it is expected to be high - level sideways. More observation is recommended [12] - **Nickel**: It is expected to move sideways. It is expected to be in a surplus situation in the long term. Observation or shorting on rallies is recommended [14] - **Tin**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to overseas supply disturbances and downstream demand recovery [14] - **Silver**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Holding long positions is recommended, and caution is needed for new positions [16] - **Gold**: It is expected to be bullish in a sideways trend. The price center is moving up. Range trading is recommended, and caution is needed for chasing highs [16] - **Lithium carbonate**: It is expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are in a state of balance. Attention should be paid to the impact of Yichun's mining permit issues on supply [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is supported by low valuation and potential policy and cost factors [17] - **Caustic soda**: It is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend. The fundamentals are weak, and short - term observation is recommended [19] - **Styrene**: It is expected to move sideways. The short - term is in a range - bound state, and the medium - to long - term depends on the improvement of cost and supply - demand patterns [19] - **Rubber**: It is expected to move sideways. The raw material price increase is limited, and the inventory is accumulating. There is a risk of price correction [21] - **Urea**: It is expected to move sideways. Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is in a wide - range fluctuation [22] - **Methanol**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is increasing, downstream demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [24] - **Polyolefins**: They are expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the upward pressure is large [25] - **Soda ash**: Temporary observation is recommended. The supply is in surplus, but the cost support is strong, and the downward space of the price is limited [26] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: They are expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend. Global cotton production and consumption are adjusted, and the price is supported by stable consumption and policy expectations [28] - **Apples**: They are expected to move sideways. The market price of late - harvested Fuji apples in storage is stable, and the trading of farmers' goods is still in a stalemate [28] - **Jujubes**: They are expected to move sideways. The acquisition of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is almost finished, and the remaining supply is limited [28] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Live pigs**: The near - term contracts are expected to be bearish on rallies, and the far - term contracts are cautiously bullish. The supply is increasing in the short term, and the price rebound is limited. In the long term, the price depends on the degree of production capacity reduction [30] - **Eggs**: The 02 contract is suitable for breeding enterprises to hedge on rallies. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and the medium - to long - term supply pressure still exists [34] - **Corn**: It is expected to be weakly bullish in a sideways trend. The short - term price increase is limited, and the long - term demand is gradually recovering, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [36] - **Soybean meal**: It is expected to move sideways. The near - term 03 contract is bullish on dips, and the far - term 05 contract is bearish [36] - **Oils**: The short - term rebound is limited, and caution is needed for chasing highs. The long - term trend depends on factors such as palm oil production reduction, biodiesel policies, and soybean supply [44]