Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for gold and silver in the precious metals sector is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 3.00% to $4459.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 7.74% to $76.51 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.93% at 1001.6 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver closed up 3.17% at 18,745 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of January 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 1065.13 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 90.54 tons from the previous day to 16,353.60 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 18.3%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 81.7%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 43.2%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 49.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 7.2% [1] - The US December ISM manufacturing index fell slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, and the index has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months [1] Market Logic - The December meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve showed that FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials had serious differences. The decision - making process reflected the dependence of the future interest - rate cut rhythm on economic data and differences in policy paths. The market's expectation for a Fed rate cut in January next year has remained below 20% [1] - The CME Group raised the margin requirements for precious metals for the second time within a week, increasing the performance margins for gold and silver futures after the close on December 31, reflecting the exchange's deep concern about the abnormal volatility of the current precious metals market [1] - Starting from January 8, the annual weight reset of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of more than $6 billion in gold futures and more than $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window [1] - On January 5, the US dollar index fell 0.13% to 98.33. On January 3, the US attacked Venezuela, amplifying geopolitical risks. COMEX gold and COMEX silver both rose sharply on January 5 [1] Trading Strategy - Due to increased short - term volatility of precious metals, investors should adjust their positions and control risks [2]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn (原油) 地缘冲突对油价的持续影响取决于是否引发大规模，长期的实质性供应中断。EIA数据显示，2025 年委内瑞拉石油产量仅占全球约0.94%-0.96%，其潜在中断量不足以推动油价长期上涨。当前原油 市场处于供应过剩的累库阶段，EIA, IEA, OPEC均预估202601全球面临较大累库压力。美委局势难 以提供持续性基本面支撑,且美国行动意在接管委石油资源,若后续制裁放松,外资进入,委油产 量甚至可能增加。综上,油价仍将受共需宽松格局主导,维持中枢下行趋势。 (贵金属) 隔夜美国公布12月1SM制造业PM1录得47.9不及预期，为2024年10月以来新低。美国对委内瑞拉采 取军事行动体现全球地缘乱局延续，特朗普还对古巴、哥伦比亚等提出警告，关注后续演绎。 贵金 属牛市逻辑不改，资金情绪主导剧烈波动，短期关注前高位置能否再度实现突破，建议待波动率下 降后维持多头参与思路。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜触及13080美元记录新高，美盘主力及加权达到6美元/磅目标位。高盛预计未来十年铜目 标1.5万美元、7美元/磅。供应端，智利有小型铜矿罢工，市场关注高铜价对矿业投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market experienced significant fluctuations driven by concerns over supply shortages and the potential acceleration of global competition for key minerals due to the turmoil in Venezuela [1] Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold prices surged over 3% on the first trading day of the week, reaching a high of $4,467 per ounce, just $100 shy of the historical record set at the end of 2025 [1] - New York gold futures prices soared to $4,480 per ounce [1] - UBS raised its target prices for gold in March, June, and September 2026 from $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce [1] Group 2: Silver and Industrial Metals - COMEX silver futures for January delivery closed up 7.95%, reclaiming the $76 mark [1] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) saw a collective rise in industrial metals, with copper increasing over 4% to surpass $13,000 per ton, while aluminum and zinc rose over 2% [1] - Platinum and palladium prices increased by 6.7% and 4.7%, respectively, while lead and nickel rose by over 1% [1] Group 3: Copper Market - The COMEX copper main contract surged nearly 6%, breaking the critical psychological barrier of $6 per pound [1] - Citigroup analysts project that global refined copper production will reach 26.9 million tons this year, with a market shortfall of 308,000 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Views of the Reports 1. **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - Presents detailed data on the latest values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year and all - time quantiles of various stock index futures spreads and cross - variety ratios, including IF, IH, IC, and IM [1] 2. **Interest Rate Futures Basis and Spread Daily Report** - Provides data on the basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL interest rate futures, along with their changes and percentiles since listing [2] 3. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report** - Future market may focus on the impact of US economic data on Fed policy and geopolitical situation in South America. Precious metals are expected to maintain high volatility in January. Suggestions include long - position gold allocation on dips, light long - position silver trading with option hedging, and long - position platinum trading due to its strong external market performance [3] 4. **Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report** - Shows the increase in settlement price indices and Shanghai export container freight rates. Futures prices of container shipping indices have also risen, and there are changes in fundamental data such as supply, port indicators, and overseas economic indicators [7][8] Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. **Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report** - **Spread Data**: Includes IF, IH, IC, and IM futures' spot - futures spreads, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety ratios, with specific values, changes, and quantiles [1] 2. **Interest Rate Futures Basis and Spread Daily Report** - **Basis Data**: TS, TF, T, and TL futures' basis values, changes, and percentiles since listing [2] - **Cross - Period Spread Data**: Cross - period spreads of different contracts and their changes and percentiles [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread Data**: Cross - variety spreads among different interest rate futures and their changes and percentiles [2] 3. **Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Futures Closing Price**: Domestic and foreign precious metals futures closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Spot Price**: Spot prices of various precious metals, price changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Basis**: Basis values of different precious metals, price changes, and 1 - year quantiles [3] - **Ratio**: Ratios of different precious metals, price changes, and percentage changes [3] - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate, along with their changes and percentage changes [3] - **Inventory and Position**: Inventory and position data of precious metals, changes, and percentage changes [3] 4. **Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report** - **Settlement Price Index**: SCFIS for European and US West routes, with price changes and percentage changes [7] - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate**: SCFI comprehensive index, European, US West, and US East routes, with price changes and percentage changes [7] - **Futures Price and Basis**: Futures prices of different container shipping index contracts, price changes, percentage changes, and basis value changes of the main contract [7] - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply, Shanghai port indicators (quasi - arrival rate, berthing situation), monthly export amount, overseas economic indicators (euro - zone PMI, EU consumer confidence index, US manufacturing PMI, OECD leading indicators), with their changes and percentage changes [7] - **Spot Quotation**: Spot freight rates of Shanghai - Europe routes for different shipping companies, price changes, and percentage changes [8]

Group 1: Commodity Market Movements - Concerns over supply shortages and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, have led to significant movements in the commodity market, with silver rising over 6% and gold nearing $4500 per ounce [1] - The industrial metals market also saw gains, with copper reaching historical highs, driven by strong demand from sectors like electric vehicles and artificial intelligence [1][6] Group 2: Gold Price Forecasts - UBS has raised its gold price target to $5000 per ounce, citing increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and geopolitical risks [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could rise to $4900 per ounce, with potential for even higher prices if political or financial risks escalate [2][3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have surged, with a closing increase of 7.95% in COMEX silver futures, driven by both safe-haven demand and structural growth in industrial applications [3] - The silver market has been in a state of supply-demand imbalance since 2021, with increasing demand from sectors like electric vehicles and solar panels [3] Group 4: Industrial Metals Supply Concerns - The London Metal Exchange reported a collective rise in industrial metals, with copper prices increasing over 4% due to supply concerns from major mines [6] - Analysts highlight that the copper market is facing a supply crunch, exacerbated by labor strikes and geopolitical tensions, which could lead to a significant market gap [6][7] Group 5: U.S. Tariff Implications - The potential for the U.S. to impose tariffs on copper imports for the electricity and construction sectors has added volatility to the market, with significant increases in copper inventories in the U.S. [7] - UBS notes that the U.S. holds a substantial portion of global copper inventories, but its consumption is low, raising concerns about supply for other regions [7]

黄金行情回顾及主要观点： 上周金价波动放大。伦敦现货黄金收于4，333美元/盎司（周环比-4.4%），国内AU9999黄金收于975元/ 克（周环比-3.5%）。 美国袭击委内瑞拉，地缘紧张局势有望利好黄金。当地时间1月3日凌晨，美军对委内瑞拉发动大规模空 袭，逮捕该国总统马杜罗及其夫人，并寻求扶植亲美政权。美国此举的核心经济动机或在于控制委内瑞 拉丰厚的石油矿产资源，其拥有全球最大的已探明石油储量；而更深层次的地缘战略在于践行"特朗普 版门罗主义"，意图确立西半球绝对主导权，对其他拉美左翼国家形成威慑。全球百年未有之大变局 下，逆全球化与地缘冲突不断，地缘政治的不确定性有望促使更多避险资金涌向黄金。 上周黄金的回调主要源于白银波动加剧的外溢效应。白银在今年下半年尤其是近一个多月呈现飙涨态 势，不乏多头逼空等交易型因素，但近期芝商所提高保证金要求的消息加剧了波动性。12月12日，芝商 所首次将白银保证金上调10%。随后在12月29日收盘后，再次全面上调黄金、白银、锂等金属期货品种 的履约保证金。12月26日，上海期货交易所将黄金、白银期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为15%，并相应 上调交易保证金比例。这些举措反映 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy can be constructed as they tend to move upwards; for the black series, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - amplitude fluctuations; for precious metals that are rebounding, a bull spread combination strategy can be built [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., are presented [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various metal options are provided. Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The strike price at the money, pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of various metal options are given. These are used to analyze the pressure and support levels of the option underlyings [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various metal options are presented [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on the fundamentals and market trends of copper, directional, volatility, and spot long - hedging strategies are proposed, such as constructing a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility seller option combination strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Considering the fundamentals and market trends of aluminum, directional, volatility, and spot long - hedging strategies are recommended, including constructing a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a sell - biased long call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc**: According to the fundamentals and market trends of zinc, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are suggested, like constructing a sell - biased long call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Based on the fundamentals and market trends of nickel, directional, volatility, and spot - covered strategies are put forward, such as constructing a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a sell - biased long call + put option combination strategy, and a spot - covered strategy [10] - **Tin**: Considering the fundamentals and market trends of tin, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are recommended, including constructing a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: According to the fundamentals and market trends of lithium carbonate, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are suggested, like constructing a sell - biased long call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Based on the fundamentals and market trends of silver, volatility and spot - hedging strategies are proposed, such as constructing a neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot - hedging strategy [12] 3.5.3 Black Series - **Rebar**: Considering the fundamentals and market trends of rebar, volatility and spot long - covered strategies are recommended, including constructing a sell - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - covered strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Based on the fundamentals and market trends of iron ore, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are put forward, such as constructing a sell - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys**: For manganese silicon, volatility strategies are suggested, like constructing a short - volatility strategy; for industrial silicon, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are recommended; for glass, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are put forward [14][15]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly under the influence of international political and economic restructuring, the Fed's loose monetary policy, improved global economic growth prospects, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach while controlling position sizes. Short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. [4] - The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of global central banks will continue to boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premium of the precious metals sector. In 2026, the precious metals sector will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024. Silver and platinum will outperform gold, but price volatility will also increase significantly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market Conditions - Due to the US raid on Venezuela over the weekend and the capture of the Venezuelan president, which triggered significant geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector generally rose during the Asian session on Monday, with London gold returning above $4,400 per ounce. The correction at the end of December 2025 has fully released the adjustment risks accumulated within the precious metals. [4] - Domestic precious metals showed varying degrees of increase. The Shanghai Gold Index rose 1.78%, the Shanghai Silver Index rose 6.81%, the Guangzhou Platinum Index rose 10.66%, and the Guangzhou Palladium Index rose 6.38%. [5] Medium - term Market Conditions - Trump's 2.0 government may focus on consolidating the geopolitical strategic space in the Western Hemisphere in 2026, which may lead to a significant increase in geopolitical risks. [5] - The improvement of global economic growth momentum and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will make the performance of silver and platinum stronger than that of gold. The industrial demand for silver is boosted by the global green energy transition, and the industrial demand for platinum and palladium is expected to improve due to the EU's cancellation of the 2035 fuel - vehicle ban. [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach, strictly control position sizes. Conservative traders can consider cross - variety arbitrage strategies such as going long on silver and platinum and short on gold and palladium. Long - hedgers should hedge in batches as early as possible, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US President Trump ordered the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro and claimed that the US would take over Venezuela, but the US military has not gained control of Venezuela, and the Maduro government is still in power and unwilling to cooperate with Washington. [16] - Venezuela's state - owned oil company PDVSA has started to cut crude oil production due to the US oil embargo, and Chevron's oil shipments have also stopped since Thursday. [16] - India is asking refiners to report their weekly purchases of Russian and US crude oil, and it is expected that Russia's crude oil imports will drop below 1 million barrels per day. [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant movements in the commodity market driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the situation in Venezuela, which has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. The outlook for precious metals remains bullish, with major investment banks raising their price targets for gold and silver in 2026. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices surged, reaching a high of $4,467 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][6] - UBS raised its gold price target for 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, citing concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and continued demand for gold as a risk hedge [6] - Silver prices also saw a significant increase, with futures closing up 7.95%, driven by both safe-haven demand and structural growth in industrial applications, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels [6][7] Group 2: Industrial Metals Market - Industrial metals experienced a collective rise, with copper prices breaking the $13,000 per ton mark, fueled by strong demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles [10][11] - Concerns over supply disruptions from major copper mines, such as the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and labor strikes in Chile, have exacerbated market anxiety regarding copper supply [11][12] - Citigroup analysts predict that global refined copper production will reach 26.9 million tons this year, with a market shortfall of 308,000 tons, emphasizing the need for investment in new copper mining capacity [11][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity: - Gold: 1 [6] - Silver: 1 [6] - Copper: 2 [9] - Zinc: 1 [12] - Lead: 0 [14] - Tin: 1 [18] - Aluminum: 1 [22] - Alumina: 0 [22] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 1 [22] - Platinum: 0 [28] - Palladium: 0 [28] - Nickel: 0 [32] - Stainless Steel: 0 [32] 2. Core Views - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2] - Silver: Consolidating at high levels [2] - Copper: Bullish sentiment is strong, and prices are rising continuously [2] - Zinc: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2] - Tin: Trading in a range [2] - Aluminum: Continuing to make up for losses [2] - Alumina: Slightly declining [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: Oscillating upwards [2] - Palladium: Trading in a range [2] - Nickel: A wide - range oscillation due to the game between real - world pressure and cycle - shift narratives [2] - Stainless Steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down, and the market is mainly speculating on Indonesian policies [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 984.84, down 2.22%; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4352.30, up 0.05%. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 18140, down 0.35%; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 76.015, up 6.11% [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: US air - strikes on Venezuela, geopolitical risks support gold, and OPEC+ will maintain the plan to suspend production increases in Q1 [4][6] Copper - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 101350, up 3.17%; LME Copper 3M closed at 13088, up 5.03% [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: Venezuelan President Maduro's arrest, US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrank, and China's November 2025 copper ore imports increased [7] - **Industry Developments**: Chile's Mantoverde copper - gold mine labor contract negotiation, Julong Copper Mine's second - phase expansion, and Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter's production [9] Zinc - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 23820, up 2.34%; LME Zinc 3M closed at 3127, up 0.03% [10] - **News**: China's December service industry PMI expanded, and Maduro pleaded not guilty in the US court [11] Lead - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17395, up 0.23%; LME Lead 3M closed at 1994, down 0.57% [13] - **News**: Maduro's arrest and US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrinkage [14] Tin - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 334370, up 3.55%; LME Tin 3M closed at 42560, up 5.74% [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: US hopes Venezuela to stop oil sales, SK Hynix's new product display, and NVIDIA's plan [18] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 23645, up 720; Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 2770, down 8; Cast Aluminum Alloy's main contract closed at 22520 [20] - **Comprehensive News**: US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrinkage and US motives for Venezuelan military action [22] Platinum and Palladium - **Price Performance**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 583.95, up 8.80%; Palladium futures 2606 closed at 452.85, up 6.50% [27] - **Macro and Industry News**: Venezuelan situation, FOMC member's speech, China - South Korea summit, and new energy vehicle sales [28] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 134100, up 1250; Stainless Steel's main contract closed at 13075, down 50 [29] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's suspension of new smelting licenses, China's steel product export license, and Indonesia's nickel - related policies [29][30]