Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts China's GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 to be 5.2%, significantly higher than the average of other major economies [1] - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, a recovery of 0.2 percentage points from May's -0.1% [1] Real Estate Trends - Since 2022, domestic housing prices have been in a long-term decline, with significant drops in third and fourth-tier cities, and now first-tier cities are also experiencing price declines [5] - From July, housing price declines in previously affected second and third-tier cities are expected to slow down, while first-tier cities will see further price drops [5] Banking and Investment Behavior - There has been a significant outflow of bank deposits, with a total decrease of 2.46 trillion yuan in the first five months of the year, compared to an increase of 987.3 billion yuan in the same period last year [8] - In May alone, 1.17 trillion yuan in deposits evaporated, marking four consecutive months of net outflow [8] - Residents are shifting their savings from banks to stocks, funds, and wealth management products, although this comes with higher risks [8] Marriage Trends - The number of marriage registrations has been declining, with only 1.81 million couples registered, a decrease of 159,000 couples or 8.1% year-on-year, reaching a historical low [13] - New policies are expected to make marriage registration more convenient, potentially leading to a rebound in marriage registrations in the second half of the year [13] Artificial Intelligence Impact - The era of artificial intelligence is upon us, with increasing automation in various sectors, including transportation, customer service, and manufacturing [14] - Many repetitive jobs are expected to be replaced by AI, highlighting the need for individuals to acquire skills related to AI to enhance their earning potential [14]

智通财经APP获悉，贸易/关税仍是今日焦点，特朗普正式将关税暂停期延长至8月1日，并于隔夜暗示8月1日的最后期限"并非 100%确定"，这最终为进一步谈判留有余地。高盛将标普500指数1个月、3个月和12个月的回报预测上调至+3%(6400点)、+6% (6600点)和+11%(6900点)。 日本首相石破茂表示，25%的关税"确实令人遗憾"，但他将尽快推动达成协议；欧盟正寻求本周达成初步贸易协议，以将10%的 关税税率锁定在8月1日之后(彭博社)；贝森特表示，他预计未来几周将与中国同行会面。 6月，美国股票发行量达到2024年10月以来的最高水平(下图)，高盛的IPO晴雨表目前为118(100=IPO发行平均水平)。 美联储更早、更深幅度的降息以及低于此前预期的债券收益率、大型股票持续的基本面强势，以及投资者愿意忽略可能的近期 盈利疲软，支撑高盛将标普500指数远期市盈率预测从20.4倍上调至22倍。高盛此前的指数目标分别为5900点、6100点和6500 点。 维持对每股收益增长的预测(2025年+7%，2026年+7%)，但看到预估在两个方向上都有风险，并将在第二季度业绩公布后重新评 估。不断变化的关税 ...

应对数据安全、算法可靠性等关键挑战。 在近日举办的"大模型金融应用及创新论坛"上，来自金融机构、科技企业和监管机构的众多专家齐聚一 堂，共同探讨了人工智能（AI）和大模型技术在金融领域的应用现状与未来发展方向。 在外资银行方面，东亚银行资讯科技架构平台部总经理张方昌指出，外资银行在AI应用中面临着投入 有限、市场竞争激烈等挑战。然而，通过与全球集团方案的结合和本地化创新，东亚银行在跨境审单等 场景中实现了智能化应用，提升了业务效率和客户体验。 数据、安全与技术难题 尽管应用广泛，金融大模型的深度落地仍面临多重障碍。数据安全与算法可靠性构成首要掣肘。 北京国家金融科技认证中心认证二部负责人段力畑在论坛上发布了《大模型金融应用安全风险测评结 果》。他指出，大模型在金融场景中的应用存在安全能力不足、推理能力与数理计算能力不匹配、幻觉 现象等问题。 中国金融电子化集团党委委员、副总经理潘润红指出，现阶段大模型在金融领域的应用面临数据安全和 算法可靠性等风险、实施路径不明晰、功能边界有待验证、核心场景中的渗透率不足等问题。 论坛聚焦于AI技术如何从降本增效迈向价值创造，以及如何应对数据安全、算法可靠性等关键挑战。 与会 ...

高盛计划要求初级银行家定期展现忠诚，以限制求才若渴的收购公司挖角。该投资银行将要求新的分析 师每三个月要保证一次自己未接受其他公司的工作。（彭博） ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs research team has revised its forecast for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts in September instead of December, expecting three cuts of 25 basis points each throughout the year [1][3] - The likelihood of a September rate cut is slightly above 50%, driven by a reassessment of tariff policy impacts, with evidence showing that the inflationary impact of tariffs is lower than previously expected [3] - The labor market's subtle changes, including increased job-seeking difficulty, support the case for rate cuts, with potential downward risks from seasonal factors and immigration policy changes [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its S&P 500 index return expectations, projecting returns of 3%, 6%, and 11% over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively, with target levels of 6400, 6600, and 6900 points [4] - The adjustment in return expectations is based on earlier and deeper monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, lower bond yields, and strong fundamentals in large-cap stocks [4] - The continuous improvement in liquidity conditions is expected to support market gains, with an estimated inflow of approximately $80 billion into global equity markets over the next month [4]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains its year-end LME copper price forecast at $9,700 per ton for December 2025, while adjusting the baseline forecast for U.S. copper import tariffs from 25% to 50% [1] Group 1 - The risk of copper prices exceeding $10,000 in the third quarter has decreased [1] - U.S. copper import volumes are expected to accelerate in the coming weeks due to increased motivation to preemptively respond to tariff implementation [1]

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街对标普500指数的看涨情绪升温，高盛和美国银行均上调了该指数的目标位，原 因是大型上市公司表现强劲、债券收益率下降以及美联储宽松政策早于预期。 高盛分析师David Kostin表示："不断变化的关税形势给我们的盈利预测带来了很大的不确定性，我们2025年 的盈利预测与市场普遍预期基本一致，但2026年的盈利预测低于市场普遍预期。我们每股收益预测面临的 主要下行风险是最终的关税水平及其对企业利润的影响。" 美国银行预计短期内股市上涨空间有限，并认为在盈利信号不一以及短期内缺乏利率催化剂的情况下，该 指数将在第三季度横盘整理。 Subramanian表示："记住，股价回报只是故事的一半——股息在未来可能会发挥更大的作用。在零利率政策 期间，股息增长滞后于收益增长，这降低了现金回报的重要性。" 高盛目前预计标普500指数到年底将升至6600点，12个月内将达到6900点，较此前的预测分别上调了6%和 11%，理由是美联储将更早采取降息行动。这是高盛策略师两个月内第二次上调预期，也是今年第四次调整 标普500指数目标位，反映出华尔街策略师在关税不确定性时期面临的挑战。 高盛再次上调标普50 ...

据英国金融时报：英国前首相里希·苏纳克将加入高盛担任高级顾问。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, reflecting early signs of milder inflation related to tariffs and emerging deflationary forces [1] - Goldman Sachs raises its S&P 500 index target for the next 12 months by 11%, citing earlier and deeper monetary easing by the Fed and strong fundamentals of large-cap stocks [1] - The S&P 500 index's expected returns for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months have been adjusted to +3%, +6%, and +11% respectively, with new target levels set at 6,400, 6,600, and 6,900 points [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley indicates that U.S. trade negotiations are moving towards a tactical escalation, with potential increases in tariffs affecting Asian economies [2] - Mizuho Securities notes that OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day, reflecting Saudi confidence in market demand rather than an intention to capture market share [3] - Nomura Securities suggests that clearer trade tariffs could help the market eventually rise, as new agreements may reduce uncertainty [5] Group 3 - Bank of America reports that improved Canada-U.S. relations and reduced tariff tensions are likely to benefit the Canadian banking sector [4] - OCBC Bank highlights that despite recent cooling measures in Singapore's real estate market, there remains potential for price and transaction volume increases [7] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates by 25 basis points in July, with a terminal rate potentially dropping to 3.10% [8] Group 4 - Westpac Bank expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain its cash rate in July, leaving the market to interpret future rate changes [9] - CICC notes that the Hong Kong stock market is entering a new era driven by active trading and structural changes in asset and funding dynamics [7] - Huatai Securities anticipates a turning point for IDC due to growing domestic and international demand for intelligent computing centers [8] Group 5 - Galaxy Securities identifies new investment opportunities in the upstream life sciences sector, driven by recovery in revenue growth and domestic substitution trends [9]

Group 1 - Deutsche Bank believes that the strong fundamentals of platinum will continue until 2026, supported by four consecutive years of supply deficits and structural demand [1] - Since 2023, platinum has experienced a significant shortage, and this shortage is expected to persist into the fourth year by next year, providing solid price support [1] - Deutsche Bank projects that platinum prices could reach $1,550 per ounce by 2026, indicating potential upside from their base forecast of $1,400 per ounce [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs warns that the recent rise in platinum prices to $1,280 per ounce is primarily driven by speculation and ETF demand rather than fundamental improvements [5] - The price sensitivity of Chinese buyers acts as a natural ceiling for platinum prices, with China accounting for approximately 60% of global new platinum supply [5] - The rebound in prices since mid-May has suppressed jewelry and investment demand in China, confirming the price sensitivity of Chinese buyers [5] Group 3 - There is a significant divergence in the outlook for automotive demand between Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, with Goldman Sachs highlighting a structural decline due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles [6] - Deutsche Bank maintains a more optimistic view, suggesting that demand for platinum in automotive catalysts remains high compared to 2018-2022 levels, particularly due to the strong performance of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [6] - On the supply side, Goldman Sachs expects global platinum supply to remain stable or grow moderately, unless power restrictions in South Africa re-emerge, which accounts for about 70% of global platinum production [6] Group 4 - Trends indicate a shift from gold to platinum as a jewelry manufacturing substitute, supported by rising platinum leasing rates, which are seen as signs of physical shortages [7] - Continuous deficits over the years may have eroded industrial inventories, necessitating some replenishment [7] - Deutsche Bank acknowledges seasonal factors affecting supply, noting that weak performance in the first quarter may be temporary due to adverse weather conditions [8]