1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals, a seller's neutral volatility strategy can be constructed as they tend to move upwards; for the black series, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - amplitude fluctuations; for precious metals that are rebounding, a bull spread combination strategy can be built [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., are presented [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The trading volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various metal options are provided. Volume PCR and open interest PCR are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The strike price at the money, pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of various metal options are given. These are used to analyze the pressure and support levels of the option underlyings [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various metal options are presented [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Based on the fundamentals and market trends of copper, directional, volatility, and spot long - hedging strategies are proposed, such as constructing a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility seller option combination strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Considering the fundamentals and market trends of aluminum, directional, volatility, and spot long - hedging strategies are recommended, including constructing a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a sell - biased long call + put option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc**: According to the fundamentals and market trends of zinc, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are suggested, like constructing a sell - biased long call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Based on the fundamentals and market trends of nickel, directional, volatility, and spot - covered strategies are put forward, such as constructing a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a sell - biased long call + put option combination strategy, and a spot - covered strategy [10] - **Tin**: Considering the fundamentals and market trends of tin, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are recommended, including constructing a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: According to the fundamentals and market trends of lithium carbonate, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are suggested, like constructing a sell - biased long call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Based on the fundamentals and market trends of silver, volatility and spot - hedging strategies are proposed, such as constructing a neutral short - volatility option seller combination strategy and a spot - hedging strategy [12] 3.5.3 Black Series - **Rebar**: Considering the fundamentals and market trends of rebar, volatility and spot long - covered strategies are recommended, including constructing a sell - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - covered strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Based on the fundamentals and market trends of iron ore, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are put forward, such as constructing a sell - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys**: For manganese silicon, volatility strategies are suggested, like constructing a short - volatility strategy; for industrial silicon, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are recommended; for glass, volatility and spot long - hedging strategies are put forward [14][15]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly under the influence of international political and economic restructuring, the Fed's loose monetary policy, improved global economic growth prospects, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach while controlling position sizes. Short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. [4] - The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of global central banks will continue to boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premium of the precious metals sector. In 2026, the precious metals sector will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024. Silver and platinum will outperform gold, but price volatility will also increase significantly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market Conditions - Due to the US raid on Venezuela over the weekend and the capture of the Venezuelan president, which triggered significant geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector generally rose during the Asian session on Monday, with London gold returning above $4,400 per ounce. The correction at the end of December 2025 has fully released the adjustment risks accumulated within the precious metals. [4] - Domestic precious metals showed varying degrees of increase. The Shanghai Gold Index rose 1.78%, the Shanghai Silver Index rose 6.81%, the Guangzhou Platinum Index rose 10.66%, and the Guangzhou Palladium Index rose 6.38%. [5] Medium - term Market Conditions - Trump's 2.0 government may focus on consolidating the geopolitical strategic space in the Western Hemisphere in 2026, which may lead to a significant increase in geopolitical risks. [5] - The improvement of global economic growth momentum and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will make the performance of silver and platinum stronger than that of gold. The industrial demand for silver is boosted by the global green energy transition, and the industrial demand for platinum and palladium is expected to improve due to the EU's cancellation of the 2035 fuel - vehicle ban. [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach, strictly control position sizes. Conservative traders can consider cross - variety arbitrage strategies such as going long on silver and platinum and short on gold and palladium. Long - hedgers should hedge in batches as early as possible, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US President Trump ordered the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro and claimed that the US would take over Venezuela, but the US military has not gained control of Venezuela, and the Maduro government is still in power and unwilling to cooperate with Washington. [16] - Venezuela's state - owned oil company PDVSA has started to cut crude oil production due to the US oil embargo, and Chevron's oil shipments have also stopped since Thursday. [16] - India is asking refiners to report their weekly purchases of Russian and US crude oil, and it is expected that Russia's crude oil imports will drop below 1 million barrels per day. [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant movements in the commodity market driven by geopolitical tensions, particularly the situation in Venezuela, which has heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver. The outlook for precious metals remains bullish, with major investment banks raising their price targets for gold and silver in 2026. Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices surged, reaching a high of $4,467 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][6] - UBS raised its gold price target for 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, citing concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and continued demand for gold as a risk hedge [6] - Silver prices also saw a significant increase, with futures closing up 7.95%, driven by both safe-haven demand and structural growth in industrial applications, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels [6][7] Group 2: Industrial Metals Market - Industrial metals experienced a collective rise, with copper prices breaking the $13,000 per ton mark, fueled by strong demand from AI data centers and electric vehicles [10][11] - Concerns over supply disruptions from major copper mines, such as the Grasberg mine in Indonesia and labor strikes in Chile, have exacerbated market anxiety regarding copper supply [11][12] - Citigroup analysts predict that global refined copper production will reach 26.9 million tons this year, with a market shortfall of 308,000 tons, emphasizing the need for investment in new copper mining capacity [11][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity: - Gold: 1 [6] - Silver: 1 [6] - Copper: 2 [9] - Zinc: 1 [12] - Lead: 0 [14] - Tin: 1 [18] - Aluminum: 1 [22] - Alumina: 0 [22] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 1 [22] - Platinum: 0 [28] - Palladium: 0 [28] - Nickel: 0 [32] - Stainless Steel: 0 [32] 2. Core Views - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2] - Silver: Consolidating at high levels [2] - Copper: Bullish sentiment is strong, and prices are rising continuously [2] - Zinc: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2] - Tin: Trading in a range [2] - Aluminum: Continuing to make up for losses [2] - Alumina: Slightly declining [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: Oscillating upwards [2] - Palladium: Trading in a range [2] - Nickel: A wide - range oscillation due to the game between real - world pressure and cycle - shift narratives [2] - Stainless Steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down, and the market is mainly speculating on Indonesian policies [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 984.84, down 2.22%; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4352.30, up 0.05%. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 18140, down 0.35%; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 76.015, up 6.11% [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: US air - strikes on Venezuela, geopolitical risks support gold, and OPEC+ will maintain the plan to suspend production increases in Q1 [4][6] Copper - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 101350, up 3.17%; LME Copper 3M closed at 13088, up 5.03% [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: Venezuelan President Maduro's arrest, US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrank, and China's November 2025 copper ore imports increased [7] - **Industry Developments**: Chile's Mantoverde copper - gold mine labor contract negotiation, Julong Copper Mine's second - phase expansion, and Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter's production [9] Zinc - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 23820, up 2.34%; LME Zinc 3M closed at 3127, up 0.03% [10] - **News**: China's December service industry PMI expanded, and Maduro pleaded not guilty in the US court [11] Lead - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17395, up 0.23%; LME Lead 3M closed at 1994, down 0.57% [13] - **News**: Maduro's arrest and US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrinkage [14] Tin - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 334370, up 3.55%; LME Tin 3M closed at 42560, up 5.74% [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: US hopes Venezuela to stop oil sales, SK Hynix's new product display, and NVIDIA's plan [18] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 23645, up 720; Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 2770, down 8; Cast Aluminum Alloy's main contract closed at 22520 [20] - **Comprehensive News**: US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrinkage and US motives for Venezuelan military action [22] Platinum and Palladium - **Price Performance**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 583.95, up 8.80%; Palladium futures 2606 closed at 452.85, up 6.50% [27] - **Macro and Industry News**: Venezuelan situation, FOMC member's speech, China - South Korea summit, and new energy vehicle sales [28] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 134100, up 1250; Stainless Steel's main contract closed at 13075, down 50 [29] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's suspension of new smelting licenses, China's steel product export license, and Indonesia's nickel - related policies [29][30]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the intensification of geopolitical conflicts and the continuous weakening of US manufacturing PMI data, precious metals prices oscillated upward on the day. Short - term gold is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, while silver's short - term drivers are similar to gold's, but the risk of increased volatility should be watched out for [1]. - In the annual outlook, the shrinking of the US dollar credit supports the upward trend of both gold and silver. The expectation of a mild economic recovery gives silver greater upward elasticity [7][8]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - The US December ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The employment index was 44.9, and the new orders index was 47.7 [2]. - The US launched a military operation against Venezuela on January 3, capturing President Maduro. Venezuela established a committee for Maduro's release [2]. - The air forces of the UK and France carried out a joint air strike on a suspected underground weapons depot of the "Islamic State" in Syria on January 3 [2]. - Trump threatened to raise tariffs on India on January 4 if India does not meet US requirements to curb oil purchases from Russia [2]. - On January 5, the on - the - spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar reached a high of 6.977, hitting a new high since mid - May 2023 [3]. Price Logic - **Gold**: Driven by the escalation of geopolitical tensions and weak US manufacturing PMI data, gold prices oscillated upward. Short - term factors to focus on include the situation in Venezuela after the US raid, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing starting on January 8, the possible "sell - the - fact" risk after the Fed chair nomination, and important US macro data this week. In the annual outlook, gold is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend [4][7]. - **Silver**: Silver's short - term drivers are similar to gold's. However, attention should be paid to the results of the silver survey in the US 232 report in mid - January. The risk of short - term volatility may increase. In the annual outlook, the shrinking of the US dollar credit supports silver, and the expectation of economic recovery gives it greater upward elasticity [8]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2330.50 (+0.00%), the commodity 20 index was 2664.63 (+0.00%), the industrial products index was 2267.44 (+0.00%), and the PPI commodity index was 1410.29 (+0.00%) [50]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on January 5, 2026, was 3824.25, with a daily increase of 0.00%, a 5 - day decline of 4.66%, a 1 - month increase of 9.71%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.00% [51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in international relations, commodity markets, and economic indicators, highlighting potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: International News - A meeting between the leaders of China and South Korea resulted in the signing of 15 cooperation documents in various fields, including technology innovation and economic cooperation [1] - Venezuela's President Maduro appeared in a New York federal court facing charges from the U.S. Justice Department, declaring "not guilty" [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, marking the tenth consecutive month below 50, the lowest since October 2024 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields have declined, while U.S. stock markets reached new highs, with energy and chemical sectors showing strength in night trading [1] Group 3: Commodity Markets Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices are rebounding due to easing inflation pressures in the U.S. and expectations of interest rate cuts, supported by a global easing cycle [2] - Silver's supply remains tight, with industrial demand from sectors like photovoltaics driving investment interest [2] - Platinum demand is increasing due to its use in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen energy, with prices expected to rise [2] Copper - Copper prices rose by 1.28%, reaching a historical high, driven by tight supply and stable demand in electricity and automotive sectors [3] - The overall copper supply-demand outlook is shifting towards a deficit due to supply disruptions [3] Oil - After a significant drop, oil prices recovered slightly, with Venezuela's oil production facing uncertainties [3] - UBS forecasts that the global oil market will not see significant changes in supply-demand balance over the next 12 months [3] Group 4: Financial Markets - U.S. stock indices rose, with significant gains in the media sector, while the oil and petrochemical sectors lagged [9] - The financing balance in China decreased, indicating potential shifts in market liquidity and investment dynamics [9] Group 5: Domestic News - China's child-rearing subsidies have been fully opened for applications, with over 24 million recipients reported [6] - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market through various supportive measures [10]

当地时间1月5日，美股三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.23%、创历史新高，纳指、标普500指数小幅上涨。 中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.49%。商品市场方面，白银大涨，黄金、原油均上涨。 道指创历史新高 美国三大股指收涨，截至当地时间1月5日收盘，数据显示，道指涨1.23%、创历史新高，纳指涨0.69%，标普500指数涨0.64%。 马杜罗在美首次出庭：我无罪 新华社消息，遭美国强行控制的委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇5日中午在美国纽约南区联邦地区法院首次出庭，拒绝美方所谓"犯罪"指控。 马杜罗在法庭上表示，自己是"被绑架的"，"我无罪"，拒绝美方对其一切指控。马杜罗强调，他仍然是委内瑞拉总统。 美国大型科技股涨跌不一，美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.41%。个股方面，特斯拉涨超3%，亚马逊涨近3%，Meta涨超1%，谷歌母公司Alphabet-C涨0.63%， 苹果跌超1%，微软、英伟达小幅下跌。 消息面上，三星联席CEO卢泰文在CES 2026期间透露，公司计划在2026年将搭载谷歌Gemini AI功能的移动设备数量增加一倍，达到8亿台。 中概股走强，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.49%。个股方面，灿谷涨超16% ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Movements - Global commodity markets experienced significant fluctuations due to concerns over supply shortages and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela, leading to a resurgence in precious metals [1] - Gold prices surged, reaching a peak of $4,467 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid U.S. military actions in Venezuela and other geopolitical developments [2][3] - Industrial metals also saw a collective rise, with copper prices breaking historical records, driven by strong demand from sectors like electric vehicles and artificial intelligence [5][6] Group 2: Gold Price Forecasts - UBS raised its gold price target for 2026 to $5,000 per ounce, citing concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and a continued preference for gold as a risk-hedging asset [3] - Goldman Sachs projected gold prices could reach $4,900 per ounce, with potential for further upside due to ongoing geopolitical risks and monetary policy changes [2][3] - The demand for gold ETFs is expected to remain high, with analysts suggesting that if political or financial risks escalate, gold prices could potentially rise to $5,400 per ounce [3] Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices saw a significant increase, with futures rising by 7.95%, driven by both safe-haven demand and structural growth in industrial applications, particularly in electric vehicles and solar panels [3][4] - The silver market has been in a state of supply-demand imbalance since 2021, with increasing demand outpacing the ability to expand production quickly [3] - A survey indicated that 57% of respondents expect silver prices to exceed $100 per ounce next year, reflecting strong market sentiment [4] Group 4: Copper Supply Concerns - The copper market is facing supply concerns due to production interruptions at major mines, with analysts predicting a global refined copper production of 26.9 million tons and a market shortfall of 308,000 tons this year [6][7] - The potential for U.S. tariffs on copper imports has added to market volatility, with significant increases in copper inventories in U.S. warehouses as traders prepare for possible trade restrictions [7] - UBS noted that the U.S. holds about half of the global copper inventory, but its consumption accounts for less than 10% of global demand, indicating risks for supply in other regions [7]

Group 1: Precious Metals Surge - Precious metals experienced a significant surge, with spot gold rising over 2% to surpass $4420 per ounce, and spot silver increasing by more than 5% to exceed $76 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals also saw substantial gains, with both platinum and palladium rising over 5% [1] Group 2: Market Indices Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average expanded its gains to 1.2%, reaching an intraday all-time high, while the S&P 500 index rose by 0.58% and the Nasdaq Composite index increased by 0.66% [2] - Energy stocks led the market, with Schlumberger rising over 7% and Chevron increasing by more than 6% [3] Group 3: Technology Sector Highlights - The technology sector saw broad gains, with TSMC's stock price increasing by 3.4% to $330 per share, marking a new historical high and a total market capitalization of $1.7 trillion [4] - Intel's stock rose by over 5%, and ASML's stock also hit a record high with an increase of more than 5%, bringing its market capitalization to $475 billion [4] - Nvidia and Tesla both saw stock increases of over 1.5% [4] Group 4: Bitcoin and Ethereum Trends - Bitcoin rose to $93,220.8, marking a 2.22% increase over the past 24 hours, reaching a three-week high, while Ethereum increased to $3,168.62, up 1.08% in the same timeframe [6]

原油价格周一上涨，因为美军抓获委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗带来了新的地缘政治暗流，同时华盛 顿似乎准备继续打压这个南美国家的石油出口。伦铜重启涨势，首度升破每吨13，000美元，随着向美 国运货的热潮再度升温，交易员和投资者的看涨情绪被进一步点燃。金银价格上涨。 "市场对这件事判断得很准确，"Rapidan Energy Group总裁Bob McNally在接受采访时表示。"对短期原 油期货来说，这件事关系不大；对美国石油企业而言则是利好。" 尽管委内瑞拉及其石油行业的未来仍非常不明朗，但特朗普称，美国将暂时管理这个国家，并需要对委 内瑞拉的石油供应获得"完全的准入"。哥伦比亚广播公司周一报道称，美国计划拦截原名Bella 1的 Marinera号油轮，该油轮被指涉嫌装载委内瑞拉石油。与此同时，马杜罗被押解至纽约，周一对"毒品 恐怖主义"指控表示不认罪。 基本金属：全线上涨 伦铜首破13000美元 伦铜重启涨势，首度升破每吨13000美元，随着向美国运货的热潮再度升温，交易员和投资者的看涨情 绪被进一步点燃。 周一LME期铜一度大涨4.7%，近期连续攀升的行情推动铜价自11月中旬以来累计上涨约20%。 原油 ...