Core Viewpoint - The exchanges have increased transaction fees for glass, soda ash, and caustic soda to cool down the market, leading to a significant drop in trading volume and a mixed performance in the black commodities sector [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Fee Adjustments - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced an increase in transaction fees for glass, soda ash, and caustic soda effective from July 30, 2025, with specific fees set at 10 CNY per hand for glass, 0.04% of transaction value for soda ash, and 0.02% of transaction value for caustic soda [1]. - Following the fee adjustments, there was a notable rebound in previously declining commodities, with coking coal rising over 6%, glass over 4%, and coking coke over 4% [1]. Group 2: Market Activity and Trends - The trading volume in the futures market has significantly decreased, with a 31.89% drop to 38.76 million hands and a 23.45% decrease in transaction value to 321.26 billion CNY, marking the lowest levels since July 21 [2]. - Specific commodities like glass and soda ash saw trading volume declines of 26.3% and 32.5%, respectively, while coking coal's volume dropped nearly 40% to 2.96 million hands [2]. - Glass and soda ash continue to experience capital outflows, with 221 million CNY and 102 million CNY leaving the respective markets [2]. Group 3: Black Commodity Sector Dynamics - The black commodity sector showed mixed performance, with coking coal prices declining but at a reduced rate, influenced by the rise in rebar and hot-rolled coil prices, which increased by around 2% [4]. - The main rebar contract closed at 3,347 CNY per ton, with a trading volume increase of 239,000 hands and a capital inflow of 1.39 billion CNY, indicating a shift in investment focus towards rebar and hot-rolled coil [4]. - The construction materials ETF saw significant fluctuations, with a peak of 1.648 billion units on July 24, followed by a reduction to 953 million units by July 28, reflecting a capital outflow exceeding 500 million CNY [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price increases in black commodities were primarily driven by market sentiment rather than fundamental changes, with ongoing "anti-involution" policies expected to influence future market conditions [5]. - There is a consensus regarding potential production cuts in September, but the actual impact remains uncertain, indicating a need for caution regarding price volatility [5].

Group 1: Industrial Production - Industrial production shows divergence, with a slight year-on-year increase in blast furnace operating rates of 1.2% [1][4] - Chemical production has declined, with soda ash and PTA operating rates down by 3.3 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points respectively [1][11] - The automotive sector's semi-steel tire operating rate remains below last year's level, down by 0.2 percentage points [1][11] Group 2: Construction Industry - Construction activity is mixed, with nationwide grinding operating rates down by 3.9 percentage points to 6.2% [1][16] - Cement shipment rates remain low, down by 2.6 percentage points to 3.0% [1][16] - Asphalt operating rates have seen a year-on-year increase of 1.0 percentage points to 0.3% [1][16] Group 3: Downstream Demand - Real estate transactions have shown a slight recovery, with average daily transaction area for new homes down by 6.1% year-on-year, but still up by 20% compared to the previous week [1][29] - Port cargo throughput related to exports has increased, with cargo and container throughput up by 5.2 percentage points and 6.3 percentage points respectively [1][34] - Passenger travel intensity has slightly increased, with the national migration scale index up by 0.4 percentage points to 17.8% [1][39] Group 4: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are mixed, with egg and vegetable prices up by 0.3% and 5.0% respectively, while pork and fruit prices are down by 0.2% and 2.3% [2][56] - Industrial product prices have rebounded significantly, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index up by 4.2% [2][63] - Energy and chemical price indices have increased by 4.0% and 4.1% respectively [2][63] Group 5: Transportation and Logistics - National railway and highway freight volumes have increased, with year-on-year growth of 0.1 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points respectively [1][34] - Port cargo throughput continues to rise, with significant increases in both cargo and container throughput [1][34] - The overall trend in logistics indicates a recovery in freight activity [1][34] Group 6: Consumer Behavior - Cinema attendance has surged, with a year-on-year increase of 49.3% in viewer numbers [1][42] - Automotive sales show a mixed trend, with retail sales up by 2.2% while wholesale volumes are down by 17.8% [1][42] - The overall consumer spending environment is showing signs of recovery, particularly in entertainment sectors [1][42]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：赢在纯碱） 投资战绩与策略核心理念 周期：2025.3.17 - 2025.5.6 收益：+29% | 最大回撤：2% 方法论：70%基本面驱动（产业政策/供需裂变）+30%技术面量化（趋势跟踪） 操作纪律 1. 动态跟踪：紧盯地缘事件（中东/几内亚）及国内政策细则； 2. 量化辅助：结合"大法师盯盘神器"+"大法师趋势神器"指标（克服人性30%）； 3. 核心原则：聚焦基本面与情绪共振品种（70%基本盘）。 终极目标：通过"70%基本面+30%量化"实现100%大满贯！ 终极武器 "大法师双神器"量化闭环： 1. 日线定生死：双↑↑才做多，否则空仓； 2. 15分钟找买点：小周期共振↑↑+止损入场； 3. 纪律保命：破止损立即撤退，等下次信号！ 一、黑色系与建材板块：政策预期主导波动 1. 焦煤/焦炭 核心逻辑：前期因"反内卷"政策（煤矿超产整改）推动焦煤单周暴涨35%，但本周一焦煤跌停（-11%），焦炭跌停（-8%），反映多头情绪退潮。 关键驱动： 政策博弈：中央政治局会议（本周召开）若未超预期强化"反内卷"，价格或回归产业逻辑；若政策加码，可能重启上涨。 基本面变化：煤矿复产加速 ...

周二，玻璃期货延续跌势，主力合约早盘下探1139元/吨的一周低位后有所回升，最终收报1188元/吨，跌幅7.19%，持仓量大幅减少6.75万手。现 货市场同步走弱，华北地区5.00mm玻璃大板现货报价回落10元至1250元/吨，沙河市场价格重心下移，经销商和期现商以销售库存货源为主。市场 分析指出，这一走势反映出在前期"反内卷"政策预期推动的快速上涨后，市场开始回归基本面现实。 银河期货分析指出："反内卷政策进入加速交易阶段后，市场情绪进一步激化，价格进入快速上涨的尾部行情。但盘面锁货压力仍在，下游刚需消 化能力有限，投机库存逐渐增加。"这种政策预期与基本面现实的背离，为价格回调埋下伏笔。 政策预期退潮与监管干预，玻璃价格跌势何时才能止住？ 7月以来，市场对建材领域"反内卷"政策预期的炒作推动玻璃价格快速上涨。生态环境部发布的《玻璃工业大气污染防治可行技术指南(征求意见 稿)》和市场监管总局的《价格法修正草案》都强化了供给侧改革的预期。恒银期货表示："政策面清晰引导的'去内卷化'目标，与环保新政倒逼供 给侧深度调整的路径高度契合，形成共振效应。" 然而，随着交易所对相关品种实施限仓制度，市场情绪明显降温。三立 ...

Summary of Glass Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The glass industry, particularly the float glass segment, is significantly impacted by the downturn in the real estate market, leading to decreased construction demand, high inventory levels, and low profitability [1][2][4] - Average price of white glass in May 2025 was 1,271 RMB, a 25% year-on-year decline, with a slight rebound to 1,240 RMB in July [1][3] Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - The float glass market is experiencing weak adjustments due to seasonal and cyclical characteristics, with high inventory levels and ongoing pressure on profits [2][4] - The government is enhancing industry self-discipline to combat vicious competition and promote product quality improvement while phasing out outdated production capacity [1][6] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The float glass production capacity is currently at 1.246 billion weight boxes, with approximately 210 lines in operation, reflecting an 8% year-on-year decrease in daily melting capacity [3][21] - High inventory levels are a major market pressure, with float and photovoltaic glass inventory cycles exceeding reasonable levels of 15 to 20 days, leading to intensified market competition and rapid price declines [3][19] Future Expectations - The second half of 2025 is expected to see improvements in both month-on-month and year-on-year performance, particularly from October to December, driven by urban renovation and major engineering projects [7][8] - The government may introduce measures to stabilize growth in the construction sector, which could help reduce inefficient production capacity [8] Photovoltaic Glass Challenges - Photovoltaic glass is facing significant production cut pressures, with a reduction of approximately 9,000 tons in June 2025, and prices currently between 9.5 and 10.5 RMB, well below the average production cost of 13 RMB [1][9] - The industry is experiencing a shift in capacity reduction policies, focusing on dynamic adjustments and structural optimization rather than aggressive shutdowns [11] Regulatory Environment - The government is actively addressing issues of overcapacity and competition through regulatory measures, emphasizing the need for compliance and quality improvement [6][12] - There are challenges in managing illegal production capacities, with various categories of non-compliant operations identified [15] Price Trends and Profitability - Recent price increases in float glass are attributed to severe industry losses and low downstream inventory levels, with different production lines experiencing varying profitability based on fuel costs [20][21] - The overall market is expected to stabilize as inventory levels decrease and demand gradually improves, although the rebound may be limited [21][32] Additional Important Insights - The glass industry has shown cyclical fluctuations, closely tied to real estate market demands, with significant variations in performance year-on-year [24][25] - Technological upgrades in furnace operations have extended lifespans, leading companies to prefer prolonging furnace use rather than immediate shutdowns [26] - Long-term, if demand continues to decline, the industry may require mechanisms similar to those in the cement sector to achieve supply-demand balance [27] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the glass industry, highlighting the challenges and regulatory measures impacting both float and photovoltaic glass segments.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns an overall "oscillating" rating to the black building materials sector [6][8][9] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the black market rose to a high level driven by macro factors, the market became extremely sensitive. Following the exchange's position - limit notice last Friday, the market sentiment took a sharp turn overnight, with coking coal hitting the daily limit. As the outcome of important meetings remains uncertain, funds tend to take a risk - averse approach. The fundamental situation in the industry has changed little, and no obvious turnaround has been observed in the terminal sector. After a large - scale replenishment in the middle reaches, a continuous price decline may lead to significant sales by traders, amplifying the bearish sentiment. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy, and in the long term, the overall trading should be bearish as the focus returns to the fundamentals [1][2] - The volatility of the black market has increased recently, and there may still be macro - level disturbances in the future. The key factors to watch are the implementation of policies and the performance of terminal demand [6] Summary by Directory Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased on a month - on - month basis, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased as expected. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for iron ore. Due to low arrivals and high demand, the inventory at 45 ports of iron ore has slightly decreased. With high demand and stable supply, there is limited bearish driving force in the fundamentals of iron ore. However, as the short - term macro - level positive factors have been mostly priced in, the price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - After the exchange adjusted the trading limit of the JM2509 contract last Friday, the market sentiment quickly cooled down, and the coking coal futures hit the daily limit across the board. There are still disruptions in production at the origin, and the overall supply is slowly recovering. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been above 1,000 trucks in recent days, remaining at a high level. Affected by the sharp decline in the futures market, the downstream and traders have become more cautious, and the auction results have been mediocre. After three rounds of price increases for coke, the coking profit is still under pressure. Coke producers in the main producing areas initiated a fourth - round price increase over the weekend. Given the current tight supply - demand structure of coke and the pressure on coking profit, the fourth - round price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [3] Alloys - Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the manganese - silicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. With the futures market remaining at a high level, the spot prices remain firm. As coke enters the price - increase cycle, the cost support for manganese - silicon is continuously strengthening. Manganese ore traders at ports are more inclined to hold prices, and low - priced supplies are scarce, with the ore prices remaining stable overall. The output of ferrosilicon is expected to increase rapidly, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector [3][6] Glass - After the glass futures hit the daily limit, the market sentiment weakened rapidly, and the production - sales ratio dropped significantly. On the supply side, there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line has been shut down for cold repair. The overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and there are no prominent internal contradictions, but there are many market - sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. However, as the Politburo meeting is approaching, the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate. In the short term, both the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. The long - term over - supply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the rising "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price. After the positive feedback, the inventory locked in the positive spread is large, and the delivery pressure is high. In the short term, it is easy to rise but difficult to fall, while in the long term, the price center will still decline [6] Individual Product Analysis - **Steel**: After the exchange adjusted the coking coal trading limit, the market sentiment cooled down, and the futures prices fell from a high level. The spot trading volume of steel was generally weak, with only a small amount of speculative and rigid - demand purchases at low prices. Last week, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory decreased on a month - on - month basis; the supply and demand of hot - rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory slightly accumulated; the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and the inventory slightly decreased. The inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years, and the fundamental contradictions in the off - season are not obvious. In the future, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation for steel, but due to the low inventory level, the fundamental pressure is limited. The futures prices are easily affected by market sentiment and are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [8] - **Iron Ore**: The arrivals at ports have decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas mine shipments have increased on a month - on - month basis, while the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased as expected. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has increased significantly, and the molten iron output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year, supporting the demand for iron ore. With high demand and stable supply, there is limited bearish driving force in the fundamentals of iron ore. However, as the short - term macro - level positive factors have been mostly priced in, the price is expected to oscillate [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The arrival volume has significantly increased, and the spot price has risen. The fundamentals of scrap steel are acceptable, with an increase in rebar production, a decrease in inventory, and an increase in apparent demand this week. On the supply side, the arrival volume has increased significantly. On the demand side, the profits of electric arc furnaces during off - peak hours have improved, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process steelmaking has increased. The inventory in steel mills has slightly decreased. The demand for scrap steel is at a high level, and there are no prominent fundamental contradictions. After Shagang raised its price, the spot price has followed suit. However, as the steel price has declined, scrap steel itself lacks upward - driving force and is expected to oscillate [9] - **Coke**: The spot market has initiated a fourth - round price increase, and the futures followed coking coal to hit the daily limit. After three rounds of price increases, the coking profit is still under pressure, and coke producers in the main producing areas initiated a fourth - round price increase over the weekend. Meanwhile, the supply of coke is still affected by environmental protection and maintenance. On the demand side, although the molten iron output has slightly decreased on a month - on - month basis, it remains at a high level, and there is still rigid demand. The downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing inventory. The inventory of coke producers has continuously decreased. The current supply - demand structure of coke is tight, and the fourth - round price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [10] - **Coking Coal**: There are continuous disturbances in coal mine supply, and the market enthusiasm remains high. In the futures market, there are strong expectations for the coal supply - side reform, and the positive market sentiment persists. In the spot market, the prices of coking coal have increased. On the supply side, there are still disruptions in production at the origin, and the supply is still restricted. The average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal has been around 1,000 trucks in recent days, and the port transactions are good. On the demand side, the coke output is temporarily stable, and the rigid demand for coking coal is strong. Recently, downstream enterprises and traders have been actively purchasing, resulting in a significant reduction in coal mine inventory. Currently, the fundamental supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and the key factors to watch are regulatory policies, coal mine复产, and Mongolian coal imports. In the short term, coking coal still has upward potential due to market sentiment [11] - **Glass**: The speculative sentiment has declined, and the inventory in the middle reaches has significantly increased. The demand in the off - season has decreased, and the orders of deep - processing enterprises have declined on a month - on - month basis. After the futures hit the daily limit, the market sentiment weakened rapidly, and the production - sales ratio dropped significantly. On the supply side, the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and there are no prominent internal contradictions, but there are many market - sentiment disturbances. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has cooled down, and the market's pessimistic expectations for the supply - demand fundamentals have returned. However, as the Politburo meeting is approaching, the "anti - involution" sentiment may fluctuate. In the short term, both the futures and spot markets are expected to oscillate widely. In the long term, if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [13] - **Soda Ash**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices have rapidly declined. The supply capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. Although the production has decreased due to a pipeline problem at Jinshan No. 3 Plant today, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to remain at a rigid - purchase level, and the demand has weakened. The downstream procurement of light soda ash has recovered, but the overall demand in the downstream is poor, mainly for periodic inventory replenishment. The long - term over - supply situation is difficult to change. In the short term, the rising "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price. After the positive feedback, the inventory in the middle reaches is high, and most of it is locked in the futures market, resulting in large delivery pressure. In July, there are planned maintenance activities, and with the support of the "anti - involution" sentiment, it is expected to be easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term, while in the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [14] - **Silicon Manganese**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated. Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the manganese - silicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, there is strong wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. With the futures market remaining at a high level, the spot prices remain firm. As coke enters the price - increase cycle, the cost support for manganese - silicon is continuously strengthening. Manganese ore traders at ports are more inclined to hold prices, and low - priced supplies are scarce, with the ore prices remaining stable overall. The downstream demand for manganese - silicon remains resilient, but as the profit - repair environment promotes the resumption of production by manufacturers, the supply - demand relationship may gradually become looser. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector, and the upside potential in the long term should be viewed with caution [16] - **Ferrosilicon**: The bullish sentiment has cooled down, and the futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated. Affected by the decline in coking coal futures, the ferrosilicon futures opened with a downward gap and oscillated widely. In the spot market, the overall sentiment is acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. On the supply side, the industry's profit has improved significantly, and manufacturers are more motivated to resume production, so the output is expected to increase rapidly. On the demand side, the steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, following the performance of the sector. However, the supply - demand gap may narrow in the future, and the upside potential in the long term should be viewed with caution [17]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 29 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to improve profitability in certain sectors, particularly photovoltaic and float glass industries, while also highlighting the potential in cement and carbon fiber sectors [7][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy developments and market dynamics as they significantly influence industry performance [7] Summary by Sections Basic Situation - Cement prices continue to decline, with a national average price of 345.81 yuan/ton, down 3.06 yuan/ton week-on-week and down 46.94 yuan/ton year-on-year [27] - The average shipment rate for cement companies in key regions dropped to 43%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points week-on-week and 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [9][26] - Glass inventory continues to decrease, with a total inventory of 5,334 million weight boxes, down 225 million weight boxes week-on-week, reflecting a 4.05% decline [10][39] Recommended Sectors - The report recommends focusing on special fiberglass and African chains, with leading companies being the main investment focus for the year [11] - Key sectors with improving profitability include photovoltaic and float glass, driven by internal changes in leading companies like Qibin Group [8] - The waterproofing industry is also highlighted due to price strategy changes from leading companies, such as Oriental Yuhong [8] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the real estate market continues to show weakness, with a year-on-year decline of 9% in transaction area for new homes across 30 major cities [9] - The float glass market is experiencing a rise in prices due to increased speculative demand and replenishment from downstream sectors, with a production capacity utilization rate of 81.56% [10][36] - The carbon fiber industry is benefiting from cost reductions in leading companies, which is expected to enhance profitability [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has cooled significantly, and the prices of finished products have started to correct. The cost side has collapsed notably. Export volume has dropped significantly this week due to the recent rapid price increase [2]. - The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coils are weak. Rebar has seen increased speculative demand and inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coils have experienced a slight decline in demand and inventory accumulation. Their inventories are at a five - year low. The market may return to real - world trading, and future market trends depend on policy signals, terminal demand recovery, and cost support [2]. - For iron ore, short - term prices may adjust. The market should focus on the inflection point of sentiment and pay attention to the policies of the important meeting in July [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term price fluctuations are large, and speculative positions are advised to wait and see. In the long - term, they face the risk of weakening demand. Enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin safety [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, prices are expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation phase, and it is recommended to wait and see. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient demand [11]. - For glass and soda ash, prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has fundamental supply - demand contradictions, and short - term waiting and long - term short - selling opportunities are recommended [14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton (-3.21%) from the previous trading day. Registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3587 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 62,771 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3397 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-3.13%). Registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions decreased by 73,396 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2509) closed at 786.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.06% (-16.50), and positions decreased by 39,554 lots to 489,400 lots. The weighted position was 979,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.02 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.91% [4]. - Overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with an increase in Australian shipments led by FMG, a slight decline in Brazilian shipments, and non - mainstream shipments at a low level. Daily molten iron production was 242.23 tons, slightly down. Port and steel mill inventories increased slightly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On July 28, the main manganese silicon contract (SM509) closed down 6.02% at 6028 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF509) closed down 5.29% at 5840 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium to the futures price [7][8]. - In the short - term, the "anti - involution" and supply - side reform expectations drove up prices, but after the sharp rise of coking coal, prices may have reached an inflection point. In the long - term, they face weakening demand [8][9]. Industrial Silicon - On July 28, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2509) closed down 8.33% at 8915 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China decreased, with the 553 having a premium and the 421 having a discount to the futures price [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 9 yuan, and in Central China increased by 40 yuan. The total inventory of national float glass enterprises decreased by 4.69% month - on - month. The market may oscillate in the short - term and follow macro - sentiment in the long - term [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 120 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 4.34%. Supply decreased due to increased maintenance, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term with fundamental contradictions in the long - term [15].

Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant volatility, with major contracts for coking coal, glass, coke, soda ash, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate hitting the limit down [1] - Over ten varieties, including alumina and polysilicon, saw declines exceeding 3%, marking a shift from previous bullish sentiment driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations to panic selling [1][3] - The implementation of position limits by exchanges was a direct catalyst for the market reversal, coinciding with a period of heightened market enthusiasm [3] Group 2 - From July 1 to July 25, polysilicon futures prices surged by 52.31%, glass futures by 33.79%, and lithium carbonate futures by 28.46%, while coking coal futures rose by 49.44% over seven consecutive trading days [3] - The position limits imposed by exchanges directly impacted speculative trading, forcing speculative funds to reduce positions and exit the market [3] - Despite the market's sharp adjustment, the fundamental logic behind the "anti-involution" policy remains, aiming to improve the current state of vicious competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity [4] Group 3 - The steel industry, as a key focus of regulatory measures, is expected to see a year-on-year production decline of 5% in the third quarter, which will positively affect the fundamentals of coking coal as a crucial raw material [4] - The situation in the new energy supply chain is more complex, with lithium and silicon facing weak fundamentals but supported by strong policy expectations, leading to a rebound despite high inventory levels and oversupply [4] - The glass industry faces ongoing supply pressure, with float glass production maintaining around 156,800 tons per day, and demand showing no significant improvement, leading to a pessimistic market outlook [5]