世界经济与海外市场丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 迎接双宽松 ——美国 2026 年经济展望 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 特朗普 2.0 关税和移民等政策力度空前，但美国经济并未失速下滑，整体呈现经济韧性较强、 就业弱平衡、通胀温和的特征。展望 2026 年：1）货币政策方面——美国再通胀压力有限，就 业市场弱平衡的背景下，预计美联储将于 2026 年二季度再度开启降息，全年或降息 50BP 左 右；2）财政政策方面——美国 2026 财年赤字率或提升至 7%，主要用于减税、军事和国土安 全领域，财政支出重点在于对家庭、企业部门的减税；3）双宽托举之下，私人消费和 AI 相关 投资或是 2026 年经济增长主力，但由于政策的时滞效应，经济整体或呈前低后高态势。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 黄帅 敬成宇 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490525070005 SFC：BUX667 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research ...

美东时间1月7日，美股三大指数尾盘跳水，道指下跌466点，跌幅0.94%，收于48996.08点；标普500指 数跌23.89点，跌幅0.34%，收于6920.93点；纳斯达克指数微涨0.16%，收于23584.27点。市场在盘中一 度触及历史新高后大幅回落，科技股与金融股的分化走势成为最大看点。 热门中概股表现分化，纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌1.58%。阿里巴巴跌2.7%，网易跌3.1%，腾讯音乐跌 超5%，但中国苏轩堂药业涨超18%，震坤行涨逾9%，叮咚买菜涨逾8%，爱奇艺、有道等涨逾5%。存 储和内存技术公司近期大涨后明显回调，西部数据大跌近9%，希捷科技下跌6.7%，美光科技跌超1%。 | ( 0 | 万得中概科技龙头指数(DRAG) | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 4391.09 -91.17 -2.03% | | | | | 求来 | 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | 月度收益 | | 名称 | | | 现价 | 涨跌 一 | | 百度集团 | | | 146.810 | 0.27% | | BIDU.O | | | | | | 拼多多 | ...

美东时间周三，美股三大股指走势出现分化。标普500指数收盘下跌，主要受摩根大通、黑石集团等金融股下挫拖累；而英伟达和Alphabet 逆势走强，推动纳斯达克指数小幅上涨，显示资金重新回流AI相关股票。 市场动态 标普500指数和道琼斯指数均在盘中触及历史新高后回落，最终收低，美国总统特朗普当天的一系列言论对行情产生了重大冲击。 在此前市场担忧估值过高后，投资者再度回流AI板块。Longbow首席执行官Jake Dollarhide表示："投资者进入2026年的策略与去年如出 一辙：买入科技股，然后放着不管。关于'AI行情已经结束'的传言被证明并不成立。" 随着未来几周第四季度财报季的临近，华尔街整体估值依然偏高。根据LSEG数据，标普500指数目前的预期市盈率约为22倍，虽低于11月 的23倍，但仍明显高于五年均值19倍。 宏观数据方面，周三公布的数据显示，美国11月职位空缺数降幅超过预期，而另一份ADP报告显示，12月私营部门就业增幅低于预期。 这些数据标志着此前因美国政府停摆而中断的经济数据发布恢复正常，但并未显著改变市场对美联储即将降息的预期，投资者仍在等待周五 公布的官方非农就业报告。 地缘政治方面， ...

另一处物业由巴内特夫妇在2021年以4590万美元购入，距离前一庄园不到一英里。斯隆是亿万富翁乔 治.L.林德曼(George L.Lindemann)的女儿，丈夫罗杰是保健品制造商嘉康利的CEO。巴内特夫妇在2024 年将旧金山的一栋豪宅以约7000万美元出售给已故苹果创始人史蒂夫.乔布斯(Steve Jobs)的妻子劳伦.鲍 威尔.乔布斯(Laurene Powell Jobs)，创下了旧金山的销售纪录。 前刘易斯庄园配备健身房、水疗中心和带瀑布的游泳池 此前，加州提议举行公投，将对亿万富翁的资产征收一次性5%的税收。该政策将追溯适用于截至2026 年1月1日的加州居民。自该提案公布以来，知名科技企业家纷纷涌向佛罗里达州，迈阿密地区的房产中 介间充斥着关于哪位亿万富豪正在购置哪处房产的传闻。 佩奇 凤凰网科技讯北京时间1月8日，据《华尔街日报》报道，知情人士称，谷歌联合创始人拉里.佩奇(Larry Page)已斥资1.734亿美元(约合12亿元人民币)在佛罗里达州迈阿密购置了两处豪宅。在加州拟对亿万富 翁征税之际，佩奇与其他硅谷富豪纷纷涌入迈阿密。 房产记录显示，佩奇去年12月斥资1.015亿美元在迈阿密 ...

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.94%, the S&P 500 down 0.34%, and the Nasdaq up 0.16% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Google up over 2%, Microsoft up over 1%, and Nvidia up over 1%, while Facebook fell nearly 2% and Apple down 0.77% [1] - Most Chinese concept stocks declined, with New World Development down over 7%, Full Truck Alliance down over 7%, and Tencent Music down over 5% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 0.92% at 25122.26 points, while France's CAC40 index fell 0.04% to 8233.92 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 index down 0.74% to 10048.21 points [1] Commodity Markets - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 0.65% at $4467.1 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 3.77% at $77.98 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract fell 1.28% to $56.4 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 0.51% to $60.39 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.15% to 98.74, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar fell by 127 basis points to 6.9935 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield up 1.45 basis points at 3.470% and the 10-year yield down 2.16 basis points at 4.147% [1] - European bond yields collectively fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 6.5 basis points at 4.415% and the German 10-year yield down 3 basis points at 2.811% [1]

和府捞面回应被指预制：中央厨房统一制作，不属于预制菜 近日，有多位消费者反映"客单价在三四十元的和府捞面，浇头、汤底均是袋装，相当于花高价吃预制面"，并称"在门店能看到 后厨堆满塑料袋"。1月7日，蓝鲸新闻记者联系到和府捞面官方客服热线，工作人员称餐品是由中央厨房制作后，配送到各门 店，不属于预制菜的范围。垂媒数据显示，和府捞面成立于2012年，在营门店583家，人均消费32.97元，超过50%的门店开在 一线及新一线城市。（蓝鲸新闻） 内存条单价逼近5万元，一盒价格堪比上海一套房 字节跳动辟谣"造车传闻" 平台不得大数据"杀熟"，《网络交易平台规则监督管理办法》发布 长安汽车辟谣，否认取消年终奖 雷军官宣：新一代小米SU7预计4月份上市 伯克希尔为新任CEO阿贝尔涨薪至2500万美元，是巴菲特的250倍 雷军首谈米黑KOL事件：攻击、贬低和诅咒用户不能容忍 和府捞面回应被指预制：中央厨房统一制作，不属于预制菜。 整理 ｜晶晶 点击上方【36氪随声听】，一键收听大公司热门新闻。听完音频记得添加进入 【我的小程序】 中哟！ 1月7日晚，小米创办人、董事长兼CEO雷军在直播中谈及"团队与相关KOL接触一事"的处罚 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has directed the country to withdraw from 66 international organizations that are deemed "not in the interest of the U.S." [2][3] - The memo mandates all administrative departments and agencies to cease participation and funding for 35 non-UN organizations and 31 UN agencies [3]. Group 2 - The founder of Prince Group, Chen Zhi, has been arrested in Cambodia and sent back to China for investigation [4]. - U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.16% while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell by 0.34% and 0.94%, respectively [5]. - Google’s market capitalization reached $3.89 trillion, surpassing Apple’s $3.85 trillion for the first time since 2019 [5]. Group 3 - OpenAI has launched a new ChatGPT Health mode aimed at providing a dedicated space for health-related conversations, expected to roll out to users in the coming weeks [7]. - AMD is preparing to revive its older AM4 platform products in response to soaring DDR5 memory prices and ongoing chip shortages [8]. Group 4 - IKEA China plans to close seven stores starting February 2, 2026, while planning to open over ten smaller stores within two years [12]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Internet Information Office have jointly issued regulations to prevent platforms from using big data to exploit consumers [13][14]. Group 5 - The major shareholder of Mao Geping Cosmetics plans to reduce holdings, potentially cashing out over 1 billion yuan [15][16]. - Sanya's market supervision bureau is investigating complaints about high-priced seafood restaurants and has promised strict action against any violations [17][18]. Group 6 - Nestlé has initiated a precautionary recall of certain infant formula products in China due to supplier issues in Europe, although no adverse reports have been received [24]. - ByteDance has denied rumors of collaborating with car manufacturers to produce vehicles, stating there are no such plans [28]. Group 7 - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on January 8 to maintain liquidity in the banking system [29]. - Alibaba Cloud is set to showcase AI-integrated smart hardware, indicating a shift of AI technology from cloud to end-user applications [30]. Group 8 - Xpeng Motors is set to launch the 2026 models of G6 and G9, which are expected to feature the self-developed Turing AI chip with 2250 TOPS of effective computing power [31][33]. - Lenovo's CEO has emphasized that hybrid AI will be the ultimate path to making AI more accessible, marking a significant advancement in AI deployment [34].

Group 1: Memory Prices and Market Impact - The price of memory modules is surging, with some units exceeding 40,000 yuan, and a box of 100 units could cost nearly 500 million yuan, comparable to the price of a house in Shanghai [1][3] - The global demand for AI computing power is causing a severe shortage in memory semiconductors, leading to significant price increases [3] - Companies like Samsung and Hynix have announced price hikes for DRAM products, with increases expected to be between 60% to 70% in Q1 compared to Q4 of the previous year [3] Group 2: Automotive Industry Developments - NIO's CEO Li Bin indicated that rising memory prices are creating cost pressures for the automotive industry, suggesting consumers consider purchasing vehicles sooner [3] - ByteDance has denied rumors about entering the automotive sector, clarifying that there are no plans to manufacture cars [3] - Changan Automobile refuted claims regarding the cancellation of year-end bonuses, asserting that the company is maintaining its incentive plans based on performance [6] Group 3: Corporate Leadership Changes - Berkshire Hathaway has increased the salary of its new CEO Greg Abel to $25 million, which is 250 times higher than Warren Buffett's long-standing salary of $100,000 [9] - Lenovo announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to launch an "AI Cloud Super Factory," aimed at enhancing AI deployment capabilities [7] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Internet Information Office released the "Regulations on the Supervision of Online Trading Platform Rules," aimed at regulating platform rules and protecting consumer rights [4] - The market regulator has adjusted the certification model for certain products, shifting from self-declaration to third-party certification for 16 types of products, including electric tools and automotive safety components [9] Group 5: Technology and Innovation - Intel is developing a dedicated gaming platform with custom chips to enhance its presence in the portable gaming device market [13] - OpenAI has introduced a new feature for ChatGPT that allows users to analyze medical test results and receive health guidance, marking a significant step into the healthcare sector [17] - Microbotics has successfully completed the world's first "large model autonomous surgery" animal experiment, pushing the boundaries of AI in the medical field [18]

资讯速递 1、商务部新闻发言人就对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅发起反倾销调查答记者问 商务部新闻发言人就对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅发起反倾销调查答记者问。有记者问：我们关注到商 务部对原产于日本的进口二氯二氢硅发起了反倾销调查，能否介绍相关情况？答：此次调查是应国内产业 申请发起的。申请人提交的初步证据显示，2022年至2024年，自日本进口的二氯二氢硅数量总体呈上升趋 势，价格累计下跌31%，自日倾销进口产品对我国内产业生产经营造成了损害。调查机关收到申请后，根 据中国有关法律法规并遵循世贸组织规则对申请书进行了审查，认为申请符合反倾销调查立案条件，决定 发起调查。调查机关将依法开展调查，充分保障各利害关系方权利，根据调查结果客观公正作出裁决。 2、八部门：到2027年 我国人工智能关键核心技术实现安全可靠供给 从国家药监局获悉，为加快临床急需境外已上市药品在境内上市，满足患者临床用药迫切需求，国家药监 局进一步优化这类药品审评审批。国家药监局表示，坚持以临床价值为导向，鼓励申请人在中国开展全球 同步研发、同步申报上市；鼓励临床急需境外已上市的原研药及仿制药在境内申报，对于符合要求的可纳 入优先审评审批范围 ...

今天，亚太市场中有两大市场表现乏力，其一是港股集体下跌，其二是日本股市全天走弱。并由此导致 了A50一度下跌近1%。受此影响，虚拟币市场亦有趋弱的势头。那么，究竟发生了什么？首先，有外 资机构下调阿里巴巴评级，给恒生科技股带来了一定的利空；其次，有色金属股（特别是贵金属）集体 杀跌，亦成为市场杀跌之助力；第三，经中信证券测算，1月由于政府债融资、M0季节性波动、缴准基 数扩大等原因，存在一定的流动性缺口。然而，更值得关注的是大量结汇对流动性的影响。（券商中 国） ...