根据美国地质调查局（USGS）的数据，中国占全球稀土产量的近70%。由于美国在许多高端产品（从 战斗机到电动汽车）中极度依赖稀土，稀土管制被广泛视作中方反制美方的一张王牌。 中国商务部新闻发言人何咏前5月29日在例行新闻发布会上表示，对具有明显军民两用属性的物项，实 施出口管制是国际通行做法。作为一个负责任的国家，中国对相关物项实施出口管制，体现了坚持维护 世界和平与地区稳定的一贯立场。 报道称，关键矿产出口问题已成为中美之间的一个焦点。5月中旬，作为与美国贸易缓和的一部分措 施，中方暂停了对28家美国实体的出口管制禁令，其中可能包括部分稀土。 2025"相约春天赏樱花"经贸洽谈活动，中国美国商会会长何迈可发表讲话。视觉中国 根据出口管制相关法律法规规定，中国商务部于2025年4月4日和9日分别发布了第21号和22号公告，共 将28家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单。 商务部发言人上月表示，为落实中美经贸高层会谈的共识，决定自2025年5月14日起，在90天内暂停上 述相关措施。出口经营者如需向上述28家实体出口两用物项，应当根据《中华人民共和国两用物项出口 管制条例》相关规定向商务部提出申请；商务部将依法依规进 ...

有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 美债危机叠加关税冲击，关注黄金板块的 投资机会 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 22 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 国内宏观经济增速放缓；美国通胀增速放缓；原材料价格波动 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 看好（维持） 刘洋 021-63325888*6084 liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | 积极关注稀土等战略金属板块的投资机 | 2025-05-18 | | --- | --- | | 会：——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 | | | 20 周） | | | 铁矿价格出现明显松动，继续关注钢铁板 | 2025-05-11 | | 块的投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点 | | | （2025 年第 19 周） | | | 铁矿价格出现明显松动，积极关注钢铁板 | 2025-04-27 | | 块的投资机会：——有色钢铁行业周观点 | | | （2025 年第 17 周） | | 有关分析师的 ...

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-03 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4668.39 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5020.22 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《黄金上行开始，持续关注黄金股投 资机会》 - 2025.05.26 有色金属行业报告 （2025.05.26- ...

Industry Overview - The domestic mixed rare earth carbonate ore price increased by 4.17% week-on-week, while the imported monazite ore price rose by 2.68% [1] - Domestic and imported medium and heavy rare earth ore prices increased by 0.82% and 1.08% respectively [1] - Prices of praseodymium and neodymium oxide and metal increased by 2.33% and 2.09% respectively [1] - China holds a near-monopoly in the rare earth refining sector, controlling over 90% of global refined rare earth supply [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Some magnetic material companies have obtained export licenses, and a 90-day easing period between China and the US has raised expectations for overseas restocking demand, driving domestic prices upward [1] - The demand for rare earths in the downstream sectors, particularly in new energy vehicles, is experiencing rapid growth, with expectations for wind power installations to be released and a narrowing decline in elevator production [1] - The robot industry is rapidly becoming a significant application area for high-performance neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnet materials, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 150% for new demand by 2027 [2] Company Insights - Key companies in the rare earth sector include Northern Rare Earth, Jinhui Permanent Magnet, and major domestic players such as Guangxi Rare Earth and China Rare Earth [3]

日前，北方稀土（600111）举办2025年第一季度业绩说明会。公司高管介绍，通过深化营销模式创新， 强化营销运作，报告期内主要产品销量同比增长，公司稀土产品价格掌控力和市场影响力进一步提升。 今年一季度，公司实现营业收入92.87亿元，同比增长约六成；归属于上市公司股东的净利润4.31亿元， 同比增长727.3%；扣非后净利润4.3亿元，同比增长11622.98%。 受上游原料供应增量放缓及下游消费刺激等政策影响，稀土市场整体活跃度好于上年同期，以稀土镨钕 产品为代表的主要稀土产品价格呈现上涨态势，成交较好。 在稀土出口方面，北方稀土高管介绍，目前轻稀土出口许可证正常办理，正常出口；中重稀土两用物项 出口许可证已提交内蒙古自治区商务厅审批。公司主要出口产品为镨钕、镧铈、氧化钆、氧化铽、氧化 钇等，主要出口到日本、美国、德国等地，预计今年的出口量与去年的出口水平相当。另外，公司产品 出口收入占总收入的比重很小。 从战略地位来看，公司高管介绍，随着世界科技革命和产业变革的加速演进，稀土元素的应用范围正在 进一步拓展，具有与其它产业强大的耦合能力，预计"双碳"战略的实施，新能源、新材料等领域将持续 高速发展，风力 ...

据和讯网报道，近日，俄罗斯稀有金属科学院与印度科学工业研究理事会宣布合作，意图在稀土开发与 加工技术上发力，这消息瞬间引发全球关注。 在全球稀土版图中，中国的地位可谓首屈一指。从储量来看，全球约38%的稀土都埋藏在中国大地之 下。多年来，中国在稀土开采与加工技术上持续深耕，积累深厚。上世纪50年代，为满足国防工业需 求，中国踏上稀土探索之路。经过几十年拼搏，到90年代已成为全球稀土产量与出口量的"双料冠军"。 稀土开采（资料图） 不过，快速发展也带来问题。过度开采让资源面临枯竭风险，落后工艺导致环境污染，低价出口又压缩 利润空间。为解决这些问题，中国政府果断出手，加强对稀土行业管控，推动产业朝着可持续方向发 展。如今，中国稀土产业形成涵盖勘探、开采、冶炼、加工、研发、贸易的完整产业链，能供应400多 个品种、1000多个规格产品，是全球唯一能大规模供应全品类稀土产品的国家，供应全球超90%优质冶 炼分离产品 。 中国对稀土行业的管控，触动了一些国家的敏感神经，俄罗斯和印度就是其中代表。俄罗斯稀土探明储 量达380万吨，印度更是高达690万吨，两国皆是稀土储量大国。但在开采与加工技术上，它们与中国差 距明显，长 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes China's strategic dominance in the rare earth industry, highlighting its significant resource advantages and the implications for global supply chains, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade tensions [1][3]. Group 1: China's Rare Earth Industry Chain - China's rare earth reserves account for 33.8% of the global total, amounting to 44 million tons, with heavy rare earths making up 25.89% of global reserves [3]. - China holds 90% of the global patents for rare earth centrifugal extraction machines, allowing for the separation of 17 rare earth elements to a purity of 99.9999% [3]. - The industry is characterized by a "North Light, South Heavy" structure, with northern regions focusing on light rare earths and southern regions on heavy rare earths [11]. Group 2: Environmental and Technical Barriers - The U.S. rare earth industry faces high environmental costs and lacks the necessary separation technology, making it reliant on China for refining [5]. - China's complete industry chain from mining to deep processing creates a cost advantage that is difficult for other countries to replicate [5][6]. Group 3: Shift from Resource Exporter to Rule Maker - China is transitioning from being a low-cost resource exporter to a global rule-maker in rare earth governance, with the implementation of the 2024 Rare Earth Management Regulations [6]. - The new regulations will include total quantity control, export quotas, and product traceability, elevating rare earth management to a national security level [6]. Group 4: U.S. Dependence on Chinese Rare Earths - The U.S. military's reliance on Chinese rare earths is significant, with the F-35 fighter jet requiring 417 kg of rare earths per unit, 83.7% of which come from China [7]. - The semiconductor industry also heavily depends on rare earths, with the U.S. defense stockpile only sufficient for six months [8]. Group 5: Price Surge and Supply Chain Disruption - Following China's export controls on seven categories of heavy rare earths, prices surged dramatically, with dysprosium oxide rising from $850/kg to $3000/kg, a 210% increase [9]. - Major companies like Shenghe Resources and Northern Rare Earth experienced a 200% increase in order volume, while U.S. defense contractors faced procurement challenges [9]. Group 6: Industry Structure and Strategic Control - China's rare earth industry is organized into a "North Light, South Heavy" structure, optimizing resource advantages and enhancing competitiveness [11]. - The government is implementing strict controls to combat illegal mining and smuggling, with a 300% increase in the value of smuggling cases reported [12]. Group 7: Export Controls and Quota System - China's export controls are targeted rather than blanket bans, focusing on seven categories of heavy rare earths while allowing other elements to be exported normally [13]. - The export quota system aims to direct resources towards high-value sectors, with a projected 3.7% increase in rare earth mining quotas for 2025 [13]. Group 8: Investment Logic and Strategies - The article suggests that while export controls may ease slightly, the strategic management of resources will remain unchanged, with domestic prices expected to rise due to international shortages [14]. - Companies with export quotas and those involved in magnetic materials production are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [15].

Core Viewpoint - The trade conflict between the US and China has intensified, with the US suspending export licenses for aviation products and technology to COMAC, aiming to pressure China to relax its export controls on rare earth elements [1] Group 1: Rare Earth Elements and Supply Chain Dynamics - The US's reliance on China for rare earth elements has become evident, especially after China imposed export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earths, directly impacting the US military and aerospace industries [1][2] - China currently holds 90% of the global rare earth refining capacity and 85% of the permanent magnet manufacturing share, creating a complete industrial chain from mining to high-end applications [2][3] - The US's Mountain Pass mine has resumed operations but produces only 20,000 tons annually, with two-thirds of the ore still needing to be refined in China, highlighting the structural advantages China holds in this sector [1][2] Group 2: Aviation Industry and Technological Competition - The US's primary target is China's C919 aircraft, which competes with Boeing 737 and Airbus A320, having delivered 16 units and received over 1,000 orders since its commercial debut in 2023 [1][7] - The C919's reliance on the LEAP engine from CFM International exposes China's technological shortcomings, but US restrictions are accelerating China's development of domestic alternatives like the Changjiang 1000 engine [7] - China has established a complete strength verification system for its domestic engines, clearing technical hurdles for certification, paralleling the trajectory of Huawei's Kirin chip advancements [7] Group 3: Global Supply Chain Restructuring - The duopoly of Boeing and Airbus is being challenged, with over 8,000 backlogged orders prompting airlines to seek alternatives, including the C919, which could offer a 10% price advantage [9] - The US underestimated the reverse effects of its technology embargo, as limited rare earth exports from China are insufficient for the development of the sixth-generation fighter jets [9] - China plans to increase C919's annual production capacity to 200 units, countering the impact of US technology bans [9] Group 4: Strategic Implications and Challenges - The "rare earth for technology" negotiation reflects a deeper struggle for global supply chain dominance, with China learning from past mistakes of low-priced exports followed by high-priced imports [10] - Despite advancements, China still faces challenges in material technology and certification standards, needing to overcome generational gaps to gain global market acceptance for its engines [10] - Building confidence in technology beyond the International Civil Aviation Organization's certification system is crucial for China's aviation industry [10]

今年3月，欧盟委员会雄心勃勃地公布了一份包含47个战略项目的清单，豪言要提升欧盟对17种关键原材料中14 种的生产能力，以改变在该领域严重依赖中 国的局面。 当时，欧盟工业专员斯特凡纳·塞茹尔内还强硬地警告：未来，不能让中国的稀土成为"俄罗斯的天然气"。德国、法国等成员国也纷纷宣布新的开采、替代 来源地和提取稀土的项目。 欧盟总部 仅仅过去两个月，欧洲的态度就来了360度大转弯，开始抱怨中国稀土出口太缓慢。而之前时不离口的"去风险""减少依赖"等词语则只字不提。 中国欧盟商会周三宣布，由于稀土短缺，一些欧洲制造商最近几周已面临全面停产的局面。原因是，在稀土出口禁令之后，中国再次批准出口，但受到严格 条件的限制。 《经济周刊》的报道 尤其是欧洲汽车行业面临巨大的风险！ "四到六周后，最后的库存可能会用完。届时部分生产线将不得不停产，"AlixPartners旗下管理咨询公司Berylls的合伙人克里斯蒂安·格里梅尔特对《汽车周 刊》表示。 这位原材料专家担心这将带来严重后果："欧洲电动汽车的普及可能会因此受到威胁。" 可以肯定的是，稀土短缺已经给企业带来了巨额损失："目前稀土的 价格比几个月前高出了40%到50 ...

特朗普这么着急，恰恰说明稀土问题真的戳到美国的痛处了。之前美国媒体就说过，美军 6 代机项目可能因为稀土问题 泡汤，现在看来，这话还真有可能成真。 特朗普现在这一系列操作，也让我们更加确定，中国在稀土问题上留一手，是非常明智的。而且，在这段时间里，中国 在全球范围内已经完成了 3 大顶级布局，特朗普可能都还没反应过来呢。 中美互降 115% 关税这事，才过去两周，特朗普就坐不住了。华盛顿时间 5 月 30 日，特朗普在他的个人社交媒体上对 中国火力全开。他主要表达了两点，一是说两周前美国和中国达成的互降关税协议，那是他出于好心，想帮中国，可中 国却违反了协议；二是宣称他不会再在中国面前当什么好人了。 就在同一天，特朗普还宣布，要再次对进口钢铁加征关税，直接从现在的 25% 加到 50%。明眼人都看得出来，这就是 冲着中国等钢铁大国来的。从这些事来看，这场波及全球的贸易战，不但没有要结束的迹象，反而再次升级了。 现在大家都在猜测，特朗普说中国违反协议，到底指的是什么呢？《纽约时报》等好多媒体都觉得，这应该和中国对关 键稀土矿产的管控有关。最近这段时间，中国对稀土出口把控得还是很严格。但问题在于，中美在日内瓦达成 ...