Group 1 - The market's concerns regarding mineral tariffs have eased, and the situation in Venezuela continues to develop, leading to increased attention on global supply issues in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - Guojin Securities indicates that China may begin its replenishment process earlier, suggesting that copper prices will not decline with the US's pause in replenishment but will instead rise again with China's replenishment [1] - As of January 15, 2026, the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 0.67%, with significant increases in component stocks such as Huayou Cobalt (up 6.14%) and Ganfeng Lithium (up 4.13%) [1] Group 2 - The Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index tracks 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index account for 51.65% of the index, including Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that most of the copper price increase has been completed and is increasingly facing the risk of a correction [2] - The forecast for aluminum prices in the first half of 2026 is $2,575 per ton, with upward risks; however, prices are expected to decline as new supplies from Indonesia enter the market by late 2026 or early 2027 [2] - A tightening of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia to 2.6 million tons could lead to an average nickel price close to $18,000 per ton, exceeding the baseline scenario prediction of $14,800 per ton [2] Group 2 - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign resources in the upstream, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and downstream demand being suppressed by high copper prices [2] - To assist the industry in addressing these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry chain enterprises to compile a bilingual version of the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map" [2]

Core Insights - Qinghai Province's market regulatory bureau has implemented a comprehensive quality improvement system for key industrial products, focusing on hazardous chemicals, fertilizers, cement, electrical cables, food-related products, and building insulation materials, which has significantly enhanced product quality, economic benefits, and management levels in local enterprises [1][2] Group 1: Quality Improvement Measures - The regulatory bureau has adopted a "you point, I help" model, providing targeted technical support and customized quality improvement plans for enterprises facing specific technical challenges [1] - A full-process management system has been established, achieving a problem rectification completion rate of over 98% in hazardous chemicals and food-related products [2] - The focus will shift towards "prevention" by 2025, with initiatives to create risk control lists and foster regional quality brands, assisting small and micro enterprises in overcoming challenges [2] Group 2: Industry-Specific Quality Enhancements - The cement industry has seen an increase in product compliance rates from 85% to 98%, while hazardous chemical companies improved product purity consistency from 86% to 98% [3] - Fertilizer production equipment compliance rates rose from 45% to 80%, and core detection accuracy for effective phosphorus and total nitrogen increased from 75% to 98% [3] - Electrical cable product compliance rates improved from 88% to 98%, and building insulation materials achieved a quality control pass rate of 99.6% [3] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts and Future Directions - The integration of technical resources with enterprise needs has led to significant quality improvements, such as a direct efficiency increase of over 20 million yuan for Xikang Tongxin Chemical through process optimization [4] - A three-dimensional verification mechanism has been established for quality checks, achieving a 100% closure rate for identified risks [4] - The market regulatory system will continue to focus on key areas and products, providing ongoing quality technical support to enhance product quality and eliminate risks [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) indicates a strong upward trend, driven by significant capital inflows and favorable macroeconomic conditions, particularly in the context of U.S. inflation data and expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 15, 2026, the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) rose by 1.82%, marking its fifth consecutive increase, with a trading volume of 1.964 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 6.22% [1]. - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past eight days, surpassing a total scale of 30 billion yuan [1]. - Key stocks within the index, such as Huayou Cobalt, rose by 6.77%, while other notable performers included Zhong Rare Earth (up 4.92%) and Chihong Zn & Ge (up 4.67%) [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - On January 13, 2026, the U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with the core CPI rising by 2.6%, both figures below market expectations [1]. - The lower-than-expected inflation data has strengthened the market's anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in April rising to 42% [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities suggests capitalizing on the "AI leap + century change" resonance, indicating a super cycle in non-ferrous metals driven by the "AI technology revolution" and "global order reshaping" [2]. - Historical patterns show that each super copper cycle corresponds with strong macro narratives, and the current cycle is expected to have significant strategic implications [2]. - The non-ferrous metal index, which tracks 50 listed companies in the sector, reflects the overall performance of the industry, with major constituents including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth [2].

Group 1 - On January 14, the A-share market experienced a significant drop, with the three major indices showing mixed results, and the ChiNext index falling nearly 2% [2] - The total net outflow of funds from the stock ETFs exceeded 7.3 billion yuan, indicating a cooling market as some investors chose to cash out [5] - Despite the overall outflow, 49 stock ETFs saw net inflows of over 100 million yuan, with the software ETF, satellite ETF, and non-ferrous metals ETF leading the inflows [5][8] Group 2 - As of January 14, the total scale of stock ETFs reached 5.07 trillion yuan, marking the first time it surpassed the 5 trillion yuan threshold [3] - The total trading volume of stock ETFs on that day was 387.15 billion yuan, an increase of over 76 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] - The software, big data, and cloud computing sectors led the gains among stock ETFs, while sectors like electric grid and innovative pharmaceuticals performed poorly [3][4] Group 3 - The top three stock ETFs by net inflow included the software ETF with 31.67 billion yuan, the D-star ETF with 26.48 billion yuan, and the non-ferrous metals ETF with 13.52 billion yuan [6] - Conversely, the top three stock ETFs by net outflow were the ChiNext ETF with 35.60 million yuan, the CSI 300 ETF with 28.26 million yuan, and the STAR 50 ETF with 15.42 million yuan [7] - Head fund companies like E Fund and Huaxia Fund saw significant inflows into their ETFs, with E Fund's software ETF and artificial intelligence ETF attracting 3.76 billion yuan and 3.73 billion yuan respectively [8]

Group 1 - Over 10 billion in main funds flowed into the non-ferrous metal sector, making it the top sector among 31 Shenwan first-level industries [1][8] - The popular ETF, Non-Ferrous ETF Huabao (159876), saw an intraday increase of 3.76%, currently up 1.08%, reaching a historical high [1][8] - As of the report, there was a net subscription of 37.2 million units, with a total of 440 million yuan raised over the past 10 days, indicating strong investor confidence in the non-ferrous metal sector [1][8] Group 2 - Key stocks in the sector include Huayou Cobalt, which rose over 6%, and Hunan Silver and Chihong Zn & Ge, which increased by over 4% [4][10] - Other notable stocks include Jiangxi Copper, Ganfeng Lithium, and Zhongjin Lingnan, which also experienced gains [4][10] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent Beige Book indicated moderate economic expansion in the U.S., but inflationary pressures remain, with potential interest rate cuts later this year [2][12] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's interest rate cuts could lead to a depreciation of the dollar, making dollar-denominated metals cheaper and increasing global demand [3][12] - The current monetary policy environment is expected to be favorable for the non-ferrous metal market, with a potential "super cycle" for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3][12] Group 4 - The Non-Ferrous ETF Huabao and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to the entire sector's performance [5][12]

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower and experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index testing the 4100-point support level and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index dropping below 1500 points [1] - The market showed a significant decline in trading volume, with more stocks falling than rising [1] Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals, tourism, glass fiber, and agricultural chemicals sectors saw notable gains, while sectors such as industrial internet, commercial aerospace, advertising marketing, and artificial intelligence faced declines [1] - Non-ferrous metal stocks surged in the morning, with the sector index rising over 3%, reaching an 18-year high since November 2007 [4] - Specific stocks like Zinc Industry Co., Ltd. and Luoping Zinc Electric Co. saw strong performance, with some hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [4] Non-Ferrous Metals - There is a widespread shortage of non-ferrous metals globally, driven by increased demand from emerging industries such as new energy and artificial intelligence [7] - Goldman Sachs indicated that the booming AI and new energy sectors could lead to a "shortage wave" for key metals like copper, aluminum, cobalt, and rare earths [7] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that copper prices could reach $12,500 per ton by Q2 2026, with an average price of $12,075 for the year [7] - The World Silver Institute reported a continuous shortage of silver since 2021, with an average annual supply-demand gap exceeding 130 million ounces [7] Tourism Sector - The tourism sector opened strong, with the index rising over 2%, marking a new high in nearly four months [9] - Companies like Zhongxin Tourism and Shaanxi Tourism saw significant stock price increases, with some hitting the daily limit [9][11] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost tourism demand, with hotel bookings in popular cities increasing by 70% year-on-year [12] - The inbound tourism market is also experiencing growth, with a 471% increase in bookings from Russian tourists due to new visa policies [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Views - The metal bull market is expected to continue, with significant price increases across various metal categories in 2025 [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of geopolitical factors and the ongoing "de-dollarization" process, which may extend the current commodity supercycle [6][10] Price Performance by Metal - Precious Metals: Gold is projected to rise 57% to 971 CNY/gram, and silver is expected to increase by 129% to 17.1 CNY/gram [6] - Industrial Metals: Copper is forecasted to increase by 34% to 99,000 CNY/ton, aluminum by 14% to 23,000 CNY/ton, lead by 3% to 17,000 CNY/ton, and zinc is expected to decrease by 10% to 23,000 CNY/ton [6] - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate is expected to rise by 58% to 119,000 CNY/ton, and electrolytic nickel by 10% to 138,000 CNY/ton [6] - Strategic Metals: Neodymium oxide is projected to increase by 52% to 610,000 CNY/ton, and tungsten concentrate by 218% to 455,000 CNY/ton [6] Investment Focus - Key investment opportunities include lithium companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, Zhongjin Lingnan, and Salt Lake Industry; cobalt companies like Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources; and various gold, copper, aluminum, and rare earth companies [6] Metal Price Changes in Q4 2025 - Lithium carbonate averaged 80,000 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 95% [7] - Gold averaged 951 CNY/gram, with a year-on-year increase of 54% [7] - Copper averaged 89,000 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 18% [7] Copper Market Insights - The average LME copper price for 2025 is projected to be around 10,000 USD/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9% [10] - The report highlights the impact of the declining US dollar index and geopolitical tensions on copper prices [10] Aluminum Market Insights - The average price of A00 aluminum is expected to reach 20,700 CNY/ton in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 4% [22] - The report notes that aluminum prices are driven by strong downstream demand and supportive policies [22] Energy Metals Insights - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is projected to be 75,921 CNY/ton for 2025, with a significant increase in Q4 [33] - Nickel and cobalt prices are also expected to remain strong, with electrolytic nickel averaging 124,100 CNY/ton [33] Strategic Metals Insights - The report indicates that prices for rare earths and tungsten are on the rise, with neodymium oxide expected to average 55.6 million CNY/ton in Q4 2025 [39] - The strategic importance of these metals is emphasized in the context of global geopolitical dynamics [40]

Market Overview - The AI applications and commercial aerospace sectors experienced significant declines, with stocks like Tianlong Group, Zhidema, and Guangyun Technology hitting the 20% daily limit down [2] - The non-ferrous metals and chemical sectors saw gains, with multiple stocks reaching historical highs [4] Index Performance - As of the morning close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.6%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.02% [3] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector rose, with precious metals, energy metals, and industrial metals leading the gains. Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Xiamen Tungsten reached historical price highs [4] - Specific stocks such as Zinc Industry Co. and Luoping Zinc Electric both hit their daily limit up, with increases of 10.02% and 9.97% respectively [5] Lithium Carbonate Price Surge - As of January 15, the benchmark price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose to 160,000 yuan per ton, a 36.71% increase from the beginning of the month [6] - Major companies in the lithium battery supply chain are undergoing maintenance, which is expected to reduce production capacity temporarily but not significantly impact overall operations [6] Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market showed strong performance, with spot silver prices reaching over $93 per ounce before experiencing a drop of more than 7% [7] - Analysts suggest that the long-term upward trend in silver prices is supported by supply constraints and increasing demand, particularly from the AI and re-industrialization sectors [7] High Dividend Assets - High dividend assets, including sectors like electricity, oil and gas extraction, and transportation, showed active performance in the market [9] - Longjiang Electric reported a profit of 41.32 billion yuan for 2025, marking a 6.34% year-on-year increase [9]

A股市场今天上午出现调整，主要指数不同程度下跌。 值得注意的是，包括海格通信、岩山科技、金风科技在内的多只近期热门股卖一位置出现市值超过10亿元的巨额卖单。 此外，上午有色金属等板块领涨，一度程度上稳定市场人气。 多只翻倍股卖一位置现10亿元以上卖单 A股有色金属板块领涨 A股市场今天（1月15日）上午整体走低，但跌势相对温和，上证指数盘中一度跌破4100点整数关口。截至中午收盘，上证指数跌0.6%，深证成指跌 0.44%，创业板指跌1.02%，科创综指跌2.02%。 主要行业板块和赛道方面，若按照申万一级行业划分，有色金属板块领涨，板块盘中涨幅超过3%。锌业股份、四川黄金、罗平锌电等多股盘中涨停，另 有多股跟涨。 消息面上，多个金属品种期货价格继续上涨，今天上午盘中沪锡期货主力合约涨幅超过9%，沪镍期货主力合约涨幅超过7%。 基础化工、石油石化、交通运输等板块涨幅居前，国防军工、传媒、综合、计算机等板块上午盘中领跌。 概念板块方面，商业航天概念再度调整，万得商业航天概念指数盘中跌幅超过5%，该指数多只成份股上午盘中跌幅超过10%。 新股至信股份上午盘中最大涨幅达265.63% 今天A股市场有一只新股上市，为 ...