供应 需求 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：72%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 800 1300 1800 2300 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁：75%FeSi：出口价格：天津港 （美元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -2500 -1500 -500 500 1500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅铁-硅锰主力合约价差（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/0 ...

Group 1 - The current manganese silicon spot market price in Tianjin is stable at 5620 CNY/ton, with a premium of 32 CNY/ton over the futures market [1] - On May 21, the main contract for manganese silicon futures closed at 5792 CNY/ton, with a slight decline of 0.03%, and a trading volume of 193,151 contracts [2] - The latest pricing from Hebei Steel Group for silicon manganese is 5850 CNY/ton, with previous pricing at 5950 CNY/ton in April and a projected price of 8000 CNY/ton in May 2024 [3] Group 2 - Customs data indicates that manganese ore imports in April 2025 reached 2.9712 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 53.86% and a year-on-year increase of 38.57% [3] - Southwest Futures reports a decline in rebar weekly production and suggests that the short-term demand for ferroalloys has peaked, with ongoing reductions in manganese silicon production [4] - The report highlights that manganese ore supply disruptions may continue, and with current low manganese ore inventories, there may be opportunities to consider out-of-the-money call options for manganese silicon [4]

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5350 | -50 | -50 | 5610 | 主力合约 | 5638 | -52 | 26 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5400 | 0 | 0 | 5750 | 01合约 | 5600 | -44 | 24 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5400 | 0 | -100 | 5730 | 05合约 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | | 陕西#72 | 5350 | 0 | 0 | 5650 | 09合约 | 5552 | -42 | 16 | | | 陕西#75 | 5900 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -28 | 2 | -76 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏# ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月20日 | | | 問數波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 张跃 | 基产 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3190 | 3210 | -20 | ਰੇਤੋ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 123 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3340 | 3360 | -20 | 243 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3115 | 3126 | -11 | 75 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3069 | 3082 | -13 | 121 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3097 | 3107 | -10 | ਰੇਤੋ | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3280 | 3290 | -10 | ટેર | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | - ...

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5400 | 0 | 0 | 5660 | 主力合约 | 5690 | -14 | 54 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5400 | 0 | 0 | 5750 | 01合约 | 5644 | -14 | 38 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5400 | -50 | -100 | 5730 | 05合约 | 5510 | -86 | -108 | | | 陕西#72 | 5350 | 0 | 0 | 5650 | 09合约 | 5594 | -24 | 36 | | | 陕西#75 | 5900 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -30 | 14 | -54 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - The market is relatively cautious, with black commodities showing a weak and volatile trend. Glass and soda ash are fluctuating, while silicon manganese and silicon iron are also in a volatile state [1][3]. - For glass, although the futures market showed a slightly stronger trend and spot market transactions improved, due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing industries, there is significant inventory accumulation and high pressure to reduce inventory. For soda ash, production has declined due to increased plant maintenance, but supply remains loose, and demand growth is limited [1]. - In the case of silicon manganese, production has decreased to a low level in recent years, demand has weakened, and high inventory and registered warrants are suppressing prices, although manganese ore cost provides some support. For silicon iron, production is at a medium - low level, demand is weakening, inventory is being depleted, and short - term prices are affected by cost factors [3]. Summary by Relevant Content Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass futures showed a slightly stronger trend, and spot market transactions improved with better downstream purchasing sentiment. Soda ash futures had a narrow - range fluctuation, and the spot market demand was average, mainly for rigid needs [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass production has been declining, but due to insufficient demand recovery in real - estate and deep - processing, inventory accumulation is obvious, and there is high pressure to reduce inventory. The upcoming high - temperature and rainy season is unfavorable for glass storage, increasing the intention of enterprises to reduce prices and inventory. Soda ash production has decreased due to increased plant maintenance, but supply remains loose. The slowdown in photovoltaic growth limits the increase in demand, and there is still significant pressure to reduce inventory [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass is expected to be volatile, while soda ash is expected to be weakly volatile. There are no specific strategies for inter - period or inter - commodity trading [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis** - Silicon manganese futures showed greater fluctuations, and the overall market was volatile. The final price of mainstream steel tenders has not been determined. Production has decreased to a low level in recent years, demand has weakened, and high inventory and registered warrants are suppressing prices, but manganese ore cost provides support. Silicon iron futures were volatile, with a reduction of 11,000 lots in positions. The spot market was weak, with cautious operations and little change in transaction prices. Production is at a medium - low level, demand is weakening, inventory is being depleted, and short - term prices are affected by cost factors [3]. - **Strategy** - For silicon manganese, near - month contracts are suppressed by warrants, and attention should be paid to the opportunity for a low - level rebound in far - month contracts. Silicon iron is expected to be volatile [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Affected by the continuous strong and volatile futures market, the spot market prices of raw material manganese ore and manganese alloy are on an upward trend. Ore merchants have firm asking prices, and low - priced manganese ore is scarce. Due to the strong futures market and enhanced cost support, ferrosilicon - manganese producers have a strong sentiment to hold prices. However, the first - round inquiries from mainstream steel mills for tenders are below expectations, and ferrosilicon - manganese producers are less willing to actively quote prices in the spot market. Market participants are mostly waiting and seeing, awaiting the pricing of mainstream steel tenders. - It is expected that the price of ferrosilicon - manganese will fluctuate next week as ferrosilicon - manganese producers have a strong sentiment to hold prices, but the first - round inquiries from mainstream steel mills for tenders are below expectations [2] Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: A chart shows the monthly capacity of manganese - silicon enterprises in China [5][6] - **Annual Output**: A chart presents the annual output of manganese silicon in various regions of China, including Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas [7][8] - **Weekly, Monthly Output and Operating Rate**: A chart shows the weekly and monthly output of manganese silicon in China and the weekly operating rate of manganese - silicon enterprises in China [10][9] - **Regional Output**: It includes the monthly output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [11][12] Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Tender Purchase Prices**: Charts show the monthly purchase prices of manganese silicon 6517 by multiple steel companies, such as Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, etc [14][15] - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: A chart shows the weekly daily average hot metal output and profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China [16][17] Manganese Silicon Import and Export - A chart shows the monthly import and export volumes of ferrosilicon - manganese in China [18][19] Manganese Silicon Inventory - It includes the weekly inventory of 63 sample manganese - silicon enterprises in China, the monthly average available days of manganese - silicon inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region [20][21] Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: A chart shows the monthly import volume of manganese ore from different sources, including Gabon, Australia, and southern Africa, and the total import volume by trade method [22][23] - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: Charts show the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available days of manganese ore inventory in China [24][25] - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: A chart shows the weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore from different origins (Australia, Gabon, Brazil) in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port [26][27] - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Charts show the daily summary prices of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, such as South African semi - carbonate manganese lumps, Australian - produced manganese ore, and Gabon - produced manganese lumps [28][29] - **Regional Cost**: A chart shows the daily cost of manganese silicon in different regions, including Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [31][32] Manganese Silicon Profit - A chart shows the daily profit of manganese silicon in different regions, including the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [33][34]

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 精 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 【宏观】海外方面，美国总统表示将在未来两到三周内对许多国家征收新的关税， 美国关税风险重燃；而 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products**: Demand is unlikely to improve, with short - term weak and volatile trends. For rebar, the mid - term outlook is weak; for hot - rolled coils, the short - term trend is volatile [3][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamental situation is weakening marginally, and the ore price will face pressure in the later stage. It is recommended to short at high prices and hold inter - period positive spreads [7][8][9]. - **Coke**: There is still an expectation of price cuts, and the supply - demand situation remains weak [10][11][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply pressure persists, and the weak trend continues [13][14][15]. - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, pay attention to the start - up in low - cost areas, with wide - range volatility expected; for ferrosilicon, the price is expected to move within a narrow range [16][17][18]. 3. Summary by Variety Rebar - **Core View**: Oscillate weakly. The profit of blast - furnace rebar is better than that of hot - rolled coils, and the overall profit of steel mills is high, with high - level hot - metal production. Demand will enter the seasonal off - season, and the supply - demand contradiction may intensify. The short - term trend is volatile, and the mid - term outlook is weak. The price range is [3050, 3110] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices: rebar 01 is 3107 (-43), rebar 05 is 3126 (+51), rebar 10 is 3082 (-36); spot prices in different regions have different changes [2]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Core View**: Oscillate weakly. Supply has decreased slightly, demand has recovered, inventory continues to decline, and exports are still high. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, but the overall atmosphere in the black industry chain is weak, with a short - term volatile trend. The price range is [3190, 3250] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices: hot - rolled coil 01 is 3238 (-34), hot - rolled coil 05 is 3255 (-10), hot - rolled coil 10 is 3226 (-34); spot prices in different regions have different changes [2]. Iron Ore - **Core View**: Short at high prices. The demand for iron ore will remain high supported by steel - enterprise profits, but the terminal demand is weakening, and the contradiction between high hot - metal production and weak terminal demand is accumulating. It is recommended to short at high prices and hold inter - period positive spreads. The price range is [710, 740] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices: iron ore 01 is 692 (-7), iron ore 05 is 794 (-8), iron ore 09 is 728 (-9); spot prices of different iron ore powders have declined [6]. Coke - **Core View**: Weak. Hot - metal production is at a high level but may peak. Steel mills are cautious in coke procurement, and there is an expectation of further price cuts. The supply is loose, and it will maintain a weak operation. The price range is [1415, 1455] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices of different contracts have different changes; spot prices in different regions have declined [10]. Coking Coal - **Core View**: Weak. Domestic mine production is normal, and Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased. The supply pressure persists, and the supply - demand is loosely balanced, with a downward trend. The price range is [835, 865] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices of different contracts have declined; spot prices in different regions have different changes [13]. Ferromanganese - **Core View**: Wide - range volatility. The production reduction range in production areas is expanding, but the reduction in low - cost areas is limited. Pay attention to the start - up in Inner Mongolia. The actual demand may be under pressure, the cost support is insufficient, and the inventory pressure in delivery warehouses is not significantly relieved. The price range is [5750, 6000] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices of different contracts have different changes; spot prices in different regions have different changes [16]. Ferrosilicon - **Core View**: Oscillate weakly. The cost support is weakening, the supply is at a low level, but the inventory is relatively high. The short - term market has a small rebound but lacks upward momentum, with a narrow - range operation. The price range is [5570, 5750] [1]. - **Price Data**: Futures prices of different contracts have increased; spot prices in different regions are stable [16].

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5400 | 0 | 50 | 5660 | 主力合约 | 5704 | 44 | 222 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5400 | 0 | 0 | 5750 | 01合约 | 5658 | 28 | 148 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5450 | 0 | 0 | 5780 | 05合约 | 5596 | 46 | 86 | | | 陕西#72 | 5350 | 0 | 0 | 5650 | 09合约 | 5618 | 38 | 158 | | | 陕西#75 | 5900 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | -44 | -44 | -172 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 56 ...