Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted the "fragile growth" of the global economy, emphasizing the need for resilience in China's bond market amid rising uncertainties in the financial environment [1] Group 1: Global Economic Changes - The global economy is experiencing a slowdown, with significant transformations in trade patterns and increasing debt risks [1] - A decline in trust towards the US dollar is creating a new competitive landscape for currencies, adding uncertainty to the global financial environment [1] Group 2: China's Bond Market - The stability of China's bond market is increasingly reliant on the resilience of the domestic economy and the consistency of policy measures [1]

转自：证券时报 人民财讯1月16日电，1月16日，由第一创业联合国家金融与发展实验室主办、深圳市第一创业债券研究 院承办的"2026债券市场年度论坛"在北京举办。国家金融与发展实验室主任张晓晶在分析中国债务风险 时表示，结合资产角度看，中国债务风险总体可控。其主要基于三个理由，一是地方政府持有大量在A 股上市的优质国企股权，是缓解地方财政问题的重要支持；二是通过稀释股权或出让部分股权引入战略 投资者，可直接获得大量现金流用于偿还债务和新投资；三是存量资产证券化（REITs）的推进。他明 确表示，经验研究表明，不存在统一的债务占GDP比例能够预测危机。 ...

21世纪经济报道记者 余纪昕 记者注意到，针对一度成为城投公司融资"神器"的境外债，本次办法在发行管理、资金使用、激励约束等方面做出了 明确清晰的规范。在地方化债的总体导向下，此举旨在严控外债短借长用、汇率与流动性等风险，以防范新增隐性债 务。 比如，针对资金流向，该办法指出，境外债券募集资金原则上应调回境内使用，只有经发改委审核登记，国有企业按 照批准的债券资金用途开展境外投资经营活动时，募集资金方可保留在境外。 并且发行初期，发债企业必须在资金交割后10个工作日内向出资人机构详细报告发行情况，包括托管银行、外国投资 者占比等信息。若资金投向的固定资产项目严重偏离时序进度，出资人机构将启动专项核查。 后续风险把控环节上，该办法进一步明确了各方责任。比如对于发债主体，应定期研判债券风险，如出现可能影响本 息兑付、滚动接续困难等情况时，需在债券到期前30个工作日内或立即书面向出资人机构报告相关情况并启动应急预 案。 并且，应当在启动偿债准备、明确本息兑付资金来源、锁定本息兑付资金来源等重要时间节点，向出资人机构报告真 实进展情况。 对未按要求报送信息的国有企业及责任人，相关部门将进行约谈。同时，出资人机构会跟踪 ...

转债市场供需紧张格局未变，2025 年整体缩量超过千亿，2026 年到期 规模预计 800 多亿，新券发行速度难抵到期量，供需矛盾支撑转债价格。 监管态度和上市公司发行意愿是影响转债市场规模的关键因素，尽管大 量转债退市，但监管未明确松绑，且科技成长类公司仍有较强发行意愿， 或将出现集中发行期。 触发强赎但放弃强赎比例较高，可能与监管不希望大量转债挤兑有关， 也可能是公司自主考量。预计 2026 年新券供给最多 1,000 亿，电力设 备、电子等科技成长类板块新发转债较多。 需求端旺盛，固收资金参与权益市场行情及银行险资配置固收加是主要 推动力，市场对慢牛行情充满信心，为转债市场提供支撑。 当前百元价位转债占比已达高点，应关注机构态度及前期支撑因素变化。 牛市预期未变，逢调整可积极配置，关注主题轮动和存续期选择。 节能风电受弃风限电、电价及来风影响，利润下滑，项目推进较慢，但 估值逐渐显现性价比；福能股份受台海局势影响，海上风电项目审核缓 慢，但 2026 年来风良好，煤价下行，利润端表现较好。 2025 年转债市场表现如何？未来是否仍有投资机会？ 新凤鸣和恒逸石化作为中盘蓝筹，在化工板块低估值背景下被看好， ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has been depreciating significantly since the beginning of 2026, with the USD/JPY exchange rate reaching 159.45, the lowest in 18 months, due to political uncertainty and policy contradictions [1] - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's announcement of a snap election on January 23 has raised concerns about continued aggressive fiscal expansion, contributing to market fears and speculation that the yen could fall to 165 [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike to 0.75% has failed to stabilize the yen, as the interest rate differential with the US remains over 2.75%, leading to increased pressure on the yen [2] Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen has led to rising import costs for energy and food, exacerbating inflation and putting pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - The upcoming election results are expected to influence the yen's future trajectory, with predictions that a victory for the ruling party could further weaken the yen, while a loss might trigger a safe-haven appreciation [3] - Official interventions in the currency market have only had short-term effects, highlighting the challenge for Japanese authorities to balance exchange rates, inflation, and fiscal sustainability [3]

本报讯记者余嘉欣报道1月15日，财政部、国家税务总局发布公告表示，为进一步推动债券市场对外开 放，自2026年1月1日起至2027年12月31日止，对境外机构投资境内债券市场取得的债券利息收入暂免征 收企业所得税和增值税。公告提出，上述暂免征收企业所得税的范围不包括境外机构在境内设立的机 构、场所取得的与该机构、场所有实际联系的债券利息。 同日，财政部、国家税务总局还发布《关于延续实施境外机构投资国债和地方政府债券增值税政策的公 告》，明确自2025年8月8日起至2027年12月31日止，对境外机构投资中国在境外发行的国债、地方政府 债券取得的债券利息收入，免征增值税。 ...

Group 1 - The core view is that the trend of residents moving savings from deposits to diversified assets like equities, gold, and insurance will continue into 2026, supported by improving fundamentals and declining deposit rates [1][18] - The A-share market is expected to experience a main upward trend driven by liquidity and risk appetite recovery, with a focus on indices like the CSI 2000, STAR 50, and ChiNext [4][21] - The bond market is anticipated to see a downward trend in interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to reach around 1.5% [5][22] Group 2 - The RMB/USD exchange rate is projected to peak at around 6.8 in the first half of 2026, with an average around 7 for the year [7][23] - The outlook for commodities includes a bullish stance on precious and non-ferrous metals, while maintaining a bearish view on crude oil, targeting $50 per barrel for WTI [8][24] - The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 4.8%, with quarterly expectations of 5.1%, 4.8%, 4.6%, and 4.7% [10][26] Group 3 - The fiscal policy for 2026 is expected to be more proactive, with a deficit rate projected between 4.0% and 4.2%, corresponding to a deficit scale of approximately 5.89 trillion to 6.19 trillion yuan [11][27] - The monetary policy is anticipated to be moderately loose, with potential for 50 basis points of reserve requirement ratio cuts and 10 basis points of interest rate cuts throughout the year [12][28] - The demand for financing in 2026 is expected to improve, with new credit estimated at 17.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-end growth rate of 6.5% [15][30] Group 4 - Key investment opportunities in 2026 are expected to focus on core technology breakthroughs, integration of technology and industry, and the transformation of manufacturing towards high-end, intelligent, and green practices [16][31] - The investment landscape will likely benefit from policies supporting infrastructure and high-end manufacturing, with a focus on projects that enhance economic stability [11][30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield rising by 3.15 basis points to 4.1635% during the trading session [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 5.24 basis points, reaching 3.5620%, with a notable short-term rally observed at 21:30 Beijing time [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield saw a modest rise of 0.71 basis points, closing at 4.7909% [1] Group 2 - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes decreased by 1.881 basis points, now at +59.937 basis points [1] - The 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield rose by 2.87 basis points to 1.8426% [1] - The 2-year TIPS yield increased by 5.75 basis points to 1.0582%, while the 30-year TIPS yield saw a slight increase of 0.12 basis points to 2.5527% [1]

在全球经济的棋局中，债务问题绝非单纯的数字游戏，而是权力博弈与生存法则交织的复杂现实。在这场不见硝烟的战争中，谁能洞悉先机，谁又能全身而 退？ 试想一下：在偏远乡村，一个手握枪支的恶霸欠你巨款。纵使你拥有再严密的合同、再充分的借据，在枪口之下，都不过是一张脆弱的纸。此时，你所求的 已不再是本金与利息，而是如何确保自身安然无恙地离开。暴力，成为了最原始、最直接的信用保障，法律与道德显得苍白无力，唯有生存法则才是唯一的 准绳。 这两种截然不同的选择，反映出两种迥异的体系逻辑。日本的选择更多地受限于历史和现实的结构性束缚，如同被钉死在一辆无法轻易停下的战车之上。而 中国则展现出更高的灵活性和主动性，不断调整资产配置，并同步增加黄金储备。截至2025年底，中国的黄金储备已超过7400万盎司。这种无发行方、无债 务凭证的实物资产，在信用货币可能随时被"切断"的时代，显得尤为重要。黄金就像一根坚实的脊梁，增强了谈判和抗风险的底气。这也解释了近年来贸易 摩擦背后的深层逻辑——通过压力测试，探寻更加稳健的支撑点，降低对单一市场的依赖性。 这并非孤例。历史与现实中，类似的"债务关系"屡见不鲜。上世纪八十年代的拉美债务危机，便是 ...

财政部、税务总局1月15日发布公告称，自2026年1月1日起至2027年12月31日止，对境外机构投资境内 债券市场取得的债券利息收入暂免征收企业所得税和增值税。暂免征收企业所得税的范围不包括境外机 构在境内设立的机构、场所取得的与该机构、场所有实际联系的债券利息。 为进一步鼓励境外投资者在华投资，两部门自2018年11月出台对境外机构投资境内债券所得利息收入免 税政策，将鼓励间接投资与直接投资相结合。2021年，两部门宣布续期该政策至2025年底，此次公告将 政策实施期限进一步续期至2027年底。 当天，两部门还发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起至2027年12月31日止，对境外机构投资我国在境外发行 国债、地方政府债券取得的债券利息收入，免征增值税。 （文章来源：证券时报） ...