刚刚赢得选举的高市早苗，其潜在弱点逐渐暴露出来，与此同时，特朗普在贺文中犯了错误，而中国则迅速采取了行动。那么，高市早苗的真正挑战在哪 里？她的立场又会对日本带来什么影响呢？ 因此，特朗普在高市当选后不久便发表了祝贺声明，称她是"智慧而有力量的女性"。然而，特朗普的这条推文暴露了他对日本政治制度的不了解，因为他写 道"日本刚选出首位女首相"，但事实上，高市早苗还只是自民党总裁，并未正式成为首相。特朗普的这一失误不仅引发了日本媒体的嘲笑，也被视为对日本 内政的干涉。 自民党总裁选举刚结束后，市场表现出了强烈的反应。在高市早苗当选后的第一个交易日，日本股市飙升5%，创下了47000点的历史新高，仿佛资本市场在 为她庆祝。然而，日元却迅速贬值，兑美元的汇率跌破了150大关，同时，长期国债收益率也飙升至2008年以来的新高。这种股市的兴奋与债市的忧虑，反 映了高市经济政策中潜在的风险。 高市早苗的经济主张可以归结为"安倍经济学"的延续，她提出要继续实施宽松的货币政策并增加财政支出，甚至强调要用"更多的钱"来刺激经济。然而，目 前的日本已经不再是通货紧缩的时代。连续三年的通胀维持在大约3%，而能源、粮食和原材料价格居高 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. federal government officially shut down on October 1, 2025, resulting in hundreds of thousands of federal employees being furloughed without pay and a complete halt to public services [1] - The shutdown was triggered by the failure to extend a temporary spending bill that expired on September 30, with a political deadlock between the Democratic-controlled House and the Republican-led Senate over healthcare benefits [2] - The shutdown has led to significant consequences, including the closure of national parks losing over 420,000 visitors daily and federal courts only handling emergency cases [4] Group 2 - China has been continuously reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with a total reduction of $309.6 billion, marking the lowest level since 2009 [1][6] - Over the past 30 months, China has decreased its U.S. Treasury holdings by more than $300 billion, with a notable acceleration in the past two months, reducing nearly $30 billion [6] - This trend is part of a broader global shift, with central banks worldwide adjusting their foreign exchange reserves and reducing reliance on U.S. debt, as the dollar's share in global reserves has fallen below 58%, the lowest in 25 years [8] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's recent comments indicate a softening stance amid increasing economic pressures, particularly concerning the production of F-35 fighter jets and the challenges faced by American farmers [9] - Despite the U.S. government's changing attitude, China maintains a calm approach, emphasizing that any cooperation must be based on mutual respect and benefit [11] - The current situation is reminiscent of the 2018 government shutdown, but the complexities are greater now, with inflation remaining high at 3.7%, potentially leading to further price increases if the shutdown continues [13] Group 4 - The government shutdown poses serious challenges for the U.S. government, with unions planning lawsuits for unpaid wages during the shutdown, and local businesses near national parks suffering losses [15] - As of now, China remains the second-largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds, but if the current pace of reduction continues, it may be surpassed by Japan by 2026 [17] - The budget impasse and subsequent shutdown are raising profound questions about the dollar's status and U.S. global leadership, prompting China to adopt strategies to navigate this evolving landscape [17]

中国对美债的持有量一路下滑。今年3月到7月，更是连续大手笔抛售，累计减持537亿美元，折合人民 币大约3820亿元。最新数据显示，中国7月持有的美债降至7307亿美元，创下自2018年底以来的新低。 美债持仓连续降温，这背后其实有着极为深远的战略考量。 为什么中国要接连减持美债？道理并不复杂。首先，美元的"安全神话"已经开始动摇。自从美国冻结俄 罗斯海外主权资产，全球各国都开始担心，一旦与美国发生摩擦，自己的美元资产也可能随时被"封 杀"。中国当然不会让自己的"家底"暴露在风险之下，减持美债，是未雨绸缪。其次，美元持续贬值， 美债收益率震荡，通过减持美债，中国可以更灵活地调配外汇储备，支撑汇率稳定。 还有一点容易被忽视，那就是中美金融脱钩的趋势正在加速。美债曾经是中美合作的"纽带"，如今却变 成了博弈的"筹码"。中国减持美债，不只是被动防守，更是主动调整全球资产结构。黄金、欧元、日 元，甚至新兴市场资产，正在成为中国外汇储备的新宠。这种资产多元化，既能分散风险，也是在全球 金融体系里为自己争取更多主动权。 完整内容查看视频 ...

阅读此文前，诚邀您点击一下"关注"按钮，方便以后持续为您推送此类文章，同时也便于您进行讨论与分享，您的支持是我们坚持创作的动力~ 声明：本文内容均引用权威资料结合个人观点进行撰写，文末已标注文献来源及截图，请知悉。 众所周知，中美双方的金融博弈如今已经进展到了一种白热化的地步。美国在通过疯狂地发售国债来收割全世界人民的财富、助力自身的经济发展。而中国 为了提振民众对于本国经济的信心也采取了发行国债的手段。 最近，美国为了销售本国的国债又想出了新的办法。美联储主席也再度对美国国内难以解决的通货膨胀问题作出了进一步的说明。 在这个时候，有国际问题专家对中美两国民众的负债情况做出了一轮估算。其得出的结果令很多人都大感意外。 美国使出新手段 众所周知，对外发行国债一直都是美国政府敛财的一个重要手段。由于美国依然是当今世界的第一强国，美国国债在全世界范围内依然有着不小的市场。 通常情况下，美国国债会按照不同的期限给出不同的利率。时间越长利率越高，相比之下，其售价也会更加的"实惠"。 但由于美国政府的债务问题非常严重，很多人都渐渐地对美国政府的经济刺激政策失去了信心。在这样的背景下，购买短期美债的人越来越多，购买长期美 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间10月6日，欧债收益率集体上涨，英国10年期国债收益率涨4.7个基点报4.735%， 法国10年期国债收益率涨5.9个基点报3.566%，意大利10年期国债收益率涨2.9个基点报3.538%，西班牙 10年期国债收益率涨2.5个基点报3.253%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

But Takaichi's reputation as a growth-focused politician who believes in looser monetary policy, more fiscal stimulus, and broader structural reforms has raised concerns over the nation's debt sustainability. Fixed-income investors are closely watching apan, where some longer-dated bond yields are trading at their highest levels on record after a historic weekend of political developments. Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party named Sanae Takaichi as its new leader, paving the way for her to become the co ...

勒科尔尼在电视讲话中坦言："我无法履行总理职务，因为条件没有得到满足。"他还称，法国议会中的 其他政党未能作出必要妥协："我已准备好作出妥协，但每个政党都期待其他政党全盘接受其议程。" 勒科尔尼是马克龙在过去两年内任命的第五位总理，同时也成为自1958年第五共和国成立以来任期最短 的总理。事实上，自2024年法国提前举行大选后未能产生拥有绝对多数的政党后，法国政治运作长期陷 入瘫痪状态。 沙夫里克认为："政治问题意味着法国所面临的任何问题都将难以得到解决。" 据央视新闻，当地时间10月6日，法国总理勒科尔尼向总统马克龙递交辞呈，马克龙已接受辞呈。 就在前一晚，勒科尔尼刚刚完成其内阁部长成员的任命工作。此时，距离马克龙任命勒科尔尼为新任法 国总理的9月9日尚不足一个月。 原本计划于当地时间周二（10月7日）提交部长会议审议的法国国家预算草案，也因此打乱了时间表， 引发市场波动。截至第一财经记者发稿时，法国CAC40指数下跌1.5%，欧元兑美元汇率下挫0.66%。此 外，法国30年期政府债券收益率一度冲高至4.441%，创下一个月新高，之后略有回落。 是什么引发强烈反弹 对外经济贸易大学法国经济研究中心主任、巴黎 ...

周一东京市场开盘后，日经225指数应声大涨超过4.7%，创下数月来最大单日涨幅，日本东证指数涨3%。 与此同时，日元兑美元汇率大幅走弱1.9%，至150这一备受关注的关键水平，而日元兑欧元汇率已跌至历史新低。 随着被视为已故日本首相安倍晋三门徒的高市早苗赢得执政党党首选举，日本金融市场正迅速为"安倍经济学"的可能回归进行定价。 高市早苗即将成为日本新任首相，市场预期她将重启以大规模财政刺激和超宽松货币政策为核心的经济议程，这迅速点燃了日本股市，并引发了外汇市场的剧 烈波动。 债券市场同样上演剧烈波动，对未来财政扩张的担忧推动长期利率走高，日本40年期国债收益率一度飙升15个基点至3.54%。 这些走势反映出投资者正在积极部署所谓的 "高市早苗交易"（Takaichi trade） 。华尔街见闻写道，市场普遍预期，高市早苗主张财政扩张和政治右倾立场， 被视为已故首相安倍晋三的门徒。她呼吁保持宽松货币政策，认为日本央行不应加息。 交易员表示， "安倍经济学"时代的回归可能会进一步削弱日元、提振股市，并导致长期日本国债收益率大幅上升。 据美银美林策略师分析，高市早苗的胜选 可能导致日元走弱和日本国债收益率曲线的陡峭 ...

Core Viewpoint - The election of Sanae Takaichi as Japan's first female Prime Minister is expected to bring significant changes to the economic landscape, with a potential return to "Abenomics" and a focus on inflation management [5][6]. Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 4%, surpassing the 47,800 mark, reaching a historical high, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index rose approximately 3%, breaking the 3,220 points barrier [1]. - The Japanese yen is under significant pressure, with the USD/JPY exchange rate exceeding 150 [2]. Economic Policies - Takaichi's administration is anticipated to prioritize inflation issues, potentially increasing subsidies to local governments and considering a reduction in consumption tax [6][7]. - She has emphasized the need for close coordination between the government and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) regarding economic policies, criticizing the BOJ's interest rate hikes as "foolish" [8]. Market Expectations - Takaichi's stance has reinforced market expectations that the BOJ will maintain its accommodative monetary policy, leading investors to reassess their strategies regarding interest rate hikes [9]. - Barclays economists predict a decreased likelihood of the BOJ raising interest rates within 2025, suggesting that Takaichi's dovish tone may strengthen in the future [11][12]. Financial Market Dynamics - The Japanese financial market is entering a phase of rapid repricing, with expectations of a positive market response to Takaichi's fiscal policies [10][13]. - Analysts believe that her proactive fiscal stance could boost market confidence, leading to a rotation towards growth stocks in the domestic market [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the fourth quarter, the cost - effectiveness of the coupon strategy is further enhanced against the backdrop of high uncertainty in the bond market direction. The 1 - 3 - year weak - qualification urban investment sinking strategy is recommended, and the yields of 1 - 2 - year AA(2), 2 - 3 - year AA, and AA(2) urban investment bonds are between 2.09% - 2.32%, with a large balance of outstanding bonds. Second, the super - decline feature of secondary perpetual (Er Yong) bonds is obvious, and the yields of 3 - year large - bank capital bonds and 2 - year AA perpetual bonds are between 2.0% - 2.07%, having fallen to a level with coupon value. The 4 - 5 - year large - bank capital bonds have a large decline in this round of adjustment, and the current yields are all above 2.1%, which are high - quality coupon assets for accounts with stable liability ends. For ultra - long - term bonds, although the cost - effectiveness of coupons continues to increase after adjustment, the liquidity has not seen marginal improvement, and it is still only recommended for allocation - type institutions to consider [3][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Current Bond Market Situation - Last week, the bearish force in the bond market remained strong, but with the bond - buying by large banks and the central bank's liquidity support, interest rates generally stabilized, while the decline of credit bonds was relatively high, especially for Er Yong bonds and ultra - long - term credit bonds, showing an "over - decline" trend. From September 22 to September 26, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 4Y, 5Y treasury bonds decreased by 0.7BP, increased by 2.7BP, 2.8BP, 1.8BP, 0.5BP respectively, while the yields of AAA medium - term notes with the same maturities increased by 5.3BP, 6.5BP, 6.8BP, 9.0BP, 9.7BP respectively [1][10]. - The performance of ultra - long - term credit bonds continued to weaken, with the decline exceeding that of the same - maturity interest - rate bonds. The yields of 10Y AAA/AA + medium - term notes increased by 11.32BP and 10.32BP respectively, and the yields of 10Y AAA/AA + urban investment bonds increased by 11.90BP and 8.90BP respectively. The yield of 10Y AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 16.19BP, while the yield of 10Y treasury bonds recovered by 0.21BP [1][12][13]. - The "volatility amplifier" feature of Er Yong bonds reappeared, with the decline of each maturity exceeding that of ordinary credit bonds. The yields of 1 - 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year AAA - bank secondary capital bonds increased by 5.15BP, 8.94BP, 11.60BP, 12.29BP, 17.93BP, 18.31BP, 16.19BP respectively. The part of the curve above 2 - year is still 30BP - 63BP away from the lowest yield point since 2025, and the yields of maturities above 3 - year have exceeded the levels of the bear - flattening period in the first quarter [2][17]. Analysis of Trading Behavior - In terms of active trading, the bearish force of Er Yong bonds was strong overall, with the selling force of trading desks stronger than the buying force of allocation desks. From September 22 to September 26, the proportion of low - valuation transactions of Er Yong bonds was 92.50%, 0.00%, 0.00%, 10.00%, 100.00% respectively. Last week, trading desks represented by public funds strongly sold Er Yong bonds and only had net purchases of short - term credit products. At the same time, allocation desks such as wealth management and insurance institutions bought oversold Er Yong bonds at high prices, but the buying force was weaker than the selling force of public funds [2][19][20]. - The selling market of ultra - long - term credit bonds continued to strengthen throughout the week. From September 22 to September 26, the proportion of discount transactions of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 65.00%, 72.50%, 95.00%, 100.00%, 75.00% respectively. The discount range was not low, and about 25.5% of the discount transactions had a range of more than 4BP, indicating a strong selling willingness in the market [22]. Comparison of the Two Rounds of Bond Market Adjustments in 2025 - The bond market adjustment in the first quarter was mainly driven by the unexpected tightening of the capital market, resulting in weaker performance of the short - and medium - term credit bonds. The yields of 1 - 5 - year AAA urban investment bonds increased by more than 40bp, while the yields of long - term bonds increased by less than 35bp [26][29]. - The bond market adjustment since mid - July in the third quarter was mainly due to the strong performance of the commodity and equity markets, which increased institutional risk appetite. Institutions were very cautious about duration, and short - duration bonds had strong anti - decline properties. From July 18 to September 29, the yield increase of 1 - year urban investment bonds was within 15bp, while the yields of AAA and AA + urban investment bonds with maturities of 7 - year and above increased by more than 40bp [26][32].