债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.12 本报告导读： 博弈偏股条款，挖掘偏高利差。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 产业永续债分析框架和机会挖掘 [Table_Authors] 王宇辰(分析师) 010-83939801 wangyuchen4@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880523020004 [Table_Report] 相关报告 如何择时股债对冲效率 2026.02.05 "做陡曲线"还是"宏观对冲"，基金参与国债期 货的两面 2026.02.01 如何理解 ONRRP 类工具与双向隔夜回购 2026.01.30 承接"存款搬家"，理财投了什么，收益如何 2026.01.30 债券 ETF 规模跃升之后：业绩归因、策略优化与 未来挑战 2026.01.29 债 券 研 究 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 产业永续债的发行主要以降低企业杠杆率为目标，过去有两轮发行 与净融资的高峰。（1）2018 年-2020 年，《关于加强国有企业资产负 债约束的指导意见》的落地，推动国有企业平均资产负债率到 2020 年年末比 2017 年 ...

全球持有美债的总规模已经冲上了9.36万亿美元的高位，乍一看，这仿佛是一场全球资本的饕餮盛宴。 然而，在这虚假繁荣的泡沫之下，曾稳坐美国最大债主交椅的中国，其持仓量却已悄然滑落至6826亿美元。 这一数字，不仅不仅击穿了心理防线，更是创下了自2008年金融危机以来的历史新低，面对这一决绝的去库存行动，美国财政部前官员惊呼："他们用了一 种新方式，我们想拦都拦不住。" 一边是全球看似疯狂的买入浪潮，一边是中国头也不回的离场背影，这高达万亿级别的债务缺口背后，究竟暗藏着怎样惊心动魄的金融博弈？ 2013年，彼时中国手中的美债规模还是1.3万亿美元的庞然大物，傲视群雄，而截至2025年11月，这一数字已定格在6826亿美元。 十年光阴，资产腰斩，这绝非简单的减持套现，而是一场经过精密计算、步步为营的战略大撤退，更让华尔街精英们坐立难安的，是那如同鬼魅般难以捉摸 的数据波动。 2025年2月，中国短暂增持，仿佛给市场吃了一颗定心丸；然而3月风云突变，立马掉头狂抛189亿；到了7月，更是单月挥刀狠砍257亿。 这种"进一退二、虚实相生"的战术手法，直接导致美联储引以为傲的监测系统彻底失灵，真正让大洋彼岸的专家们感到脊背 ...

Weak 10-Year Auction Raises Yields ModestlyCONCLUDED[Stock Market News From Feb. 11, 2026: Dow Snaps 3-Day Record Streak]Last Updated:---5 hours ago# Weak 10-Year Auction Raises Yields ModestlyBy[Karishma Vanjani]The market reacted modestly this afternoon to a weak 10-year auction.An auction of 10-year notes saw a result of 4.177%, which was higher than the yield in the pre-auction, indicating weak demand. Higher yields mean investors demanded lower prices.Investors may be worried about Friday's inflation r ...

德债收益率较此前下跌1个基点至2.79%，德国国债期货上涨4个点至128.68；意大利10年期国债收益率 下跌1个基点至3.40%；法国10年期国债收益率下跌2个基点至3.38%；10年期英国国债收益率下跌3个基 点至4.48%。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 德国国债呈现小幅牛市趋平走势，未受美国1月就业数据好于预期的影响，表现优于美国国债。受交易 员削减对美联储降息押注的影响，美债呈现熊市趋平走势。 法国长期国债表现优于欧元区同类债券，此前该国通过银行发行的30年期国债获得逾1350亿欧元认购， 创下纪录。 英国国债收益率曲线中段及长端同步呈现牛市趋平走势，英国国债表现优于同类债券。Polymarket平台 数据显示，英国首相斯塔默本月下台的概率降至4%，较周一40%的峰值出现大幅回落。 ...

德国国债小幅牛市趋平，未受美国1月就业数据好于预期的影响，表现优于美国国债。因交易员削减对 美联储降息的押注，美债熊市趋平。 法国长期国债表现优于欧元区同类债券，此前该国通过银行发行的30年期国债吸引了逾1350亿欧元的创 纪录认购。 英国国债收益率曲线中段及长端牛市趋平，表现优于同类债券，首相斯塔默下台的可能性降低； Polymarket平台显示他本月下台的概率为4%，较周一40%的峰值大幅回落。 责任编辑：李桐 德国国债小幅牛市趋平，未受美国1月就业数据好于预期的影响，表现优于美国国债。因交易员削减对 美联储降息的押注，美债熊市趋平。 法国长期国债表现优于欧元区同类债券，此前该国通过银行发行的30年期国债吸引了逾1350亿欧元的创 纪录认购。 英国国债收益率曲线中段及长端牛市趋平，表现优于同类债券，首相斯塔默下台的可能性降低； Polymarket平台显示他本月下台的概率为4%，较周一40%的峰值大幅回落。 市场： 市场： 德债收益率跌1个基点，至2.79%； 德国国债期货涨4个点，至128.68； 意大利10年期国债收益率跌1个基点，至3.40%； 法国10年期国债收益率跌2个基点，至3.38%； 10 ...

周三欧市尾盘，英国10年期国债收益率跌3.0个基点，报4.476%，北京时间21:30发布美国非农就业报告 时拉升、迅速刷新日高至4.519%。两年期英债收益率跌1.9个基点，报3.624%。30年期英债收益率跌4.1 个基点，50年期英债收益率跌3.8个基点。2/10年期英债收益率利差跌1.171个基点，报+85.067个基点。 ...

抛售潮的持续发酵，直接让美债陷入濒临崩盘的困境。曾经被视为"全球资产定价之锚"的美债，如今遭遇了罕见的"股汇债三杀"，美股暴跌、美元走低的同 时，美债价格大幅下跌，收益率飙升，10年期美债收益率一度突破4.5%，30年期美债收益率三天内飙升近60个基点。美债价格下跌意味着美国政府融资成 本大幅上升，新债难以卖出，"借新还旧"的链条随时可能断裂，而美债收益率的攀升，还会带动美国抵押贷款、汽车贷款等利率上涨，进一步冲击美国实体 经济和民众生活。 美债的危机，本质上是美元霸权的危机。长期以来，美国凭借美元的储备货币地位，肆意印发美元、转嫁经济风险，而美债作为美元霸权的重要支柱，一直 被全球投资者视为"避风港"。但如今，美国的单边主义、保护主义行径，以及朝令夕改的关税政策，持续侵蚀着美元的信用根基，美元在全球外汇储备中的 占比已跌至56.92%，创下1995年以来的最低值，而全球央行的黄金持有量，也首次超过了外国央行持有的美国国债。 很多人不解，中国为何要持续减持美债？其实这绝非一时冲动，而是基于风险规避与战略布局的理性选择。如今的美国，债务问题早已积重难返，国债总额 已突破38万亿美元，年利息支出接近1万亿美元，甚 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the bond market strengthened overall driven by risk - aversion sentiment. The yield of ultra - long credit bonds declined slightly, and the number of ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% increased to 388. The new issuance of ultra - long credit bonds saw increased subscription sentiment, but the supply volume shrank to a relatively low level in the past two years. Ultra - long bonds led the bond market rally, but the trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds was weak. In the short term, the pre - holiday asset shortage logic continues, and the continuous opening of amortized cost method bond funds will provide incremental funds. However, after the holiday, the extremely low pricing of ultra - long bonds is relatively fragile, and factors such as the recovery of the stock market, the increase in government bond supply, and unexpected policies may cause price fluctuations of ultra - long credit bonds [2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Market Characteristics - This week (from February 2, 2026, to February 6, 2026), the bond market strengthened overall driven by risk - aversion sentiment, and the yield of ultra - long credit bonds showed a slight downward trend. Compared with last week, the number of outstanding ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.4% - 2.5% increased to 388 [2][13] 3.2 Primary Issuance Situation - The subscription sentiment for new ultra - long credit bonds increased this week. The total supply of new ultra - long credit bonds was 3.1 billion, and the supply volume shrank to a relatively low level in the past two years. The interest rate of new ultra - long urban investment bonds continued to decline to 2.58%, and the interest rate of new ultra - long industrial bonds remained around 2.5%. Driven by the correction of the equity market and the central bank's clear intention to protect liquidity before the Spring Festival, institutional participation in subscribing for new ultra - long credit bonds has strengthened [3][22] 3.3 Secondary Transaction Performance - Ultra - long bonds led the bond market rally. This week, the bond market sentiment continued to recover. Treasury bonds with a term of over 10 years performed well, with the full - price index rising nearly 0.5% weekly. The prices of ultra - long credit bonds also increased marginally. The full - price indices of AA+ credit bonds with terms of 7 - 10 years and over 10 years increased by 0.04% and 0.17% respectively compared with the previous week, outperforming medium - short - term credit bonds and secondary capital bonds [4][30] - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds was weak. Although long - term bonds led the rally this week, in terms of liquidity, the number of transactions of general credit bonds with a term of over 7 years slightly increased to 275, and the activity did not improve significantly. Investors were concerned about chasing up ultra - long credit bonds due to insufficient spread protection (the spread between 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds was only 13bp) and potential supply pressure [4][33] - This week, ultra - long credit bonds were mostly traded at a lower valuation. However, in terms of buying willingness, the proportion of TKN for varieties over 10 years decreased significantly, indicating limited enthusiasm for chasing long - term bonds in the market [4][39] - In terms of investor structure, the allocation sentiment of trading desks such as public funds towards ultra - long credit bonds became more cautious, and the net buying volume decreased month - on - month. The buying power of insurance and other funds for long - duration assets also weakened temporarily. Overall, ultra - long credit bonds lacked continuous and sufficient buying support [4][44] - From a more microscopic perspective, due to the faster decline in long - term treasury bond interest rates, the spread between active ultra - long credit bonds and treasury bonds of similar terms widened passively this week. Looking ahead, the pre - holiday asset shortage logic continues, and the continuous opening of amortized cost method bond funds will provide incremental funds for corresponding term varieties. However, looking after the holiday, the extremely low pricing of current ultra - long bonds is relatively fragile, and factors such as the recovery of the stock market, the increase in government bond supply, and unexpected policies may cause price fluctuations of ultra - long credit bonds [5][46]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight increase followed by a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.09% to 4131.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.35%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.08%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Index decreased by 0.79% [1][17] - The total market turnover was below 2 trillion, a decrease of over 100 billion compared to the previous trading day, indicating a weak risk appetite with over 3200 stocks declining [1][17] - In terms of sector performance, gold, non-ferrous metals, steel, and coal sectors led the gains, while media, artificial intelligence, and telecommunications sectors saw corrections [1][17] Gold Market Insights - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that the U.S. is in the "fifth stage" of a major cycle characterized by extreme polarization and debt imbalance, suggesting a potential for conflict and disorder [2][17] - Dalio emphasized gold as the only "non-debt" asset amidst current debt and political turmoil, recommending that individuals allocate 5% to 15% of their portfolios to gold [2][17] - Historical data indicates that after significant price drops, gold typically rebounds, and recent market movements suggest a potential mid-term low has been established [2][18] ETF Performance - The Gold ETF Guotai (518800) closed at 10.634, with a turnover of 431 billion and a slight increase of 0.82% [4][19] - The Mining ETF (561330) rose by 2.93%, while the Gold Stock ETF (517400) increased by 2.62%, indicating strong performance in the commodity sector [5][22] - The coal sector showed strength following news of potential government support for coal purchases, suggesting a positive outlook for coal investments [6][22] Game and Entertainment Sector - The gaming sector is highlighted for its favorable valuation and upcoming product launches, with expectations for the domestic gaming market to exceed 350 billion yuan in sales by 2025, marking a 7.68% year-on-year increase [8][24] - The upcoming Spring Festival is anticipated to catalyze growth in the gaming industry, with numerous new game releases planned for early 2026 [8][24] - The Game ETF (516010) is recommended for investors looking to capitalize on the seasonal demand and product launches in the gaming sector [8][24] Bond Market Insights - The bond market has shown signs of recovery, with the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) rising by 0.87% over the past 20 days, driven by unexpected bank deposits and strong demand [10][25] - The central bank's recent monetary policy report emphasizes the importance of monetary-fiscal coordination, suggesting a supportive environment for government bond issuance [12][26] - Investors are advised to consider government bond ETFs for stable returns, especially in the context of upcoming holiday trading strategies [27][29]

Group 1 - The bond market in January was characterized by a correction of pessimistic expectations rather than a reinforcement of easing expectations, with banks and insurance companies increasing their allocation while brokers and funds sold off [9][10] - The bond market may enter a phase of compressed spreads, with various types of spreads being targeted for excess returns, as the market approaches critical points without clear negative signals [10][11] - The core factors driving the configuration-led market include the ability of funding costs and deposit rates to decrease further, and whether the 10-year government bond can break through key levels [10][11] Group 2 - The primary contradictions in the bond market include asset allocation rebalancing, capital outflow from the stock market, and expectations of rising prices, with the first two being the most critical [11][12] - The relationship between stocks and bonds in 2026 continues to reflect a rebalancing of asset allocation, with the stock market showing signs of strength but still needing to monitor capital flows into equities [14][15] - The insurance sector is shifting its liabilities towards dividend insurance, which may affect its preference for long-term bonds, while fixed-income funds are facing challenges in attracting new liabilities [14][17] Group 3 - The continuous decline in the scale of credit bond ETFs since the beginning of the year, with a drop of 101 billion to 514.2 billion, indicates a potential stabilization as selling pressure eases and valuation improves [21][22] - The strong performance of perpetual bonds in early January can be attributed to several factors, including easing valuation pressures and increased demand from insurance companies [24] - The current credit strategy suggests extending duration to 3-5 years for high-grade bonds, while focusing on specific sectors and grades that offer value [25] Group 4 - The core theme in the convertible bond market is pricing elasticity, with demand remaining high despite supply constraints due to maturing bonds and strong redemption expectations [26][29] - The strategy for convertible bonds emphasizes the importance of maintaining adequate positions to achieve relative returns, as low positions may hinder performance [27] - Excess returns in the convertible bond market are expected to come from elastic varieties, particularly those with low premium rates and smaller market caps [29]