周内(4月21日至4月25日)，大宗商品涨跌不一，基本金属、黑色系板块领涨，航运板块领跌。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周上涨1.51%、原油上涨1.10%，碳酸锂下跌2.85%；黑 色系板块，铁矿石周上涨1.43%、焦煤上涨0.37%；基本金属板块，沪镍周上涨0.05%、沪锌上涨 3.17%、沪铜上涨1.71%；农产品板块，棕榈油周上涨3.00%、豆粕上涨0.33%、生猪下跌2.18%。航运板 块，集运欧线周下跌10.95%。交易行情热点 热点一：美联储独立性受影响，黄金收出高位十字星 黄金本周盘中价格创出新高，COMEX黄金一度突破3500美元盎司关口，随后快速回落，COMEX黄金 和伦敦金周线均收出十字星。具体来看，COMEX黄金下跌0.33%，报3330.2美元/盎司；伦敦金下跌 0.17%，报3318.62美元/盎司。 据南华期货（603093）统计：长线基金持仓看，上周SPDR黄金ETF持仓周减6吨至946.3；iShares白银 ETF持仓周减164.1吨至13956吨。短线基金持仓看，根据截至4月22日的CFTC持仓报告，黄金非商业净 多头寸周减26832张至175378张，其中 ...

1. Overnight Market Trends International Market - International oil prices rose across the board, with the June contract of US crude up 3.11% at $63.75 per barrel and the June contract of Brent crude up 2.75% at $67.66 per barrel [2]. - International precious metal futures generally closed down, with COMEX gold futures down 0.15% at $3341.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.32% at $32.55 per ounce [2]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME lead up 1.23% at $1927.50 per ton, LME tin up 1.16% at $31320.00 per ton, etc., while LME aluminum fell 0.15% at $2385.00 per ton [2]. - CBOT agricultural product futures contracts were mixed, with soybean futures down 0.33% at 1046.75 cents per bushel, corn futures down 0.25% at 490.5 cents per bushel, and wheat futures up 0.09% at 561.5 cents per bushel [2]. Domestic Market - Domestic commodity futures night - trading generally closed down. Energy and chemical products mostly fell, while crude oil rose 3.4% and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 1.76%. Black - series products all fell. Agricultural products and base metals were mixed [3]. 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - Trump expects the European Central Bank to cut interest rates for the seventh time and criticizes Fed Chairman Powell for being "too late" and making wrong decisions, calling for Fed rate cuts [6]. - China's GDP in Q1 2025 grew 5.4% year - on - year, with the primary industry up 3.5%, the secondary industry up 5.9%, and the tertiary industry up 5.3% [6]. - The G20 Development Working Group's second meeting was held, with China clarifying its stance on the US "reciprocal tariffs" and many parties calling for maintaining the multilateral trading system [7]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of policy timing and intensity, suggesting early and forceful policy actions [7]. - The European Central Bank cut the deposit mechanism rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, and also cut other key rates, bringing borrowing costs to the lowest since early 2023 [7]. - Many institutions predict that macro - stimulus policies may be intensified in Q2, and it is an important observation window for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [7]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The production of the float glass industry was basically stable, with the average operating rate at 75.66% (up 0.24% month - on - month) and the average capacity utilization rate at 79.03% (unchanged month - on - month). The total inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly [10]. - Domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel were cut by 480 yuan and 465 yuan per ton respectively [10]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose to a 17 - week high, light distillate oil inventory fell to a 19 - week low, and middle distillate oil inventory rose to a 3 - week high [10]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased slightly, with light soda ash inventory up and heavy soda ash inventory down [11]. Metal Futures - A zinc smelter in Southwest China postponed its maintenance plan to late May, and a large die - casting zinc alloy factory in East China suspended raw material procurement due to high inventory [13]. - Switzerland's gold exports to the US in March decreased by 32%, and the total gold exports decreased by 27% month - on - month, while imports increased by 4% [13]. - Peru's copper production in February increased slightly year - on - year, and it is expected to rebound by 2% - 4% in 2025 [15]. - Alphamin Resources restarted tin production at its Bisie mine in the DRC [15]. Black - series Futures - HeSteel Group set the April silicon - manganese price at 5950 yuan/ton, with an increase in procurement volume [17]. - Rebar apparent demand increased for the ninth consecutive week, factory inventory and production decreased, and social inventory decreased for the sixth consecutive week [17]. - The export of iron ore and spodumene concentrate from Port Hedland in March increased compared to February [17]. - The utilization rate of coking coal mines increased to a 3 - month high, with an increase in daily coal production and inventory [18]. Agricultural Futures - As of April 17, the grain - selling progress of farmers in 13 provinces and 7 major producing provinces was faster than the same period last year [21]. - The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased [21]. - As of the end of March, textile enterprises' cotton inventory increased, with 35% of enterprises increasing inventory [21]. - The sugar - cane crushing season in Maharashtra, India is coming to an end, with lower sugar recovery rate than last year [21]. - Brazil's 2024/2025 sugar - cane and sugar production forecasts were adjusted slightly [22]. - Abiove raised its forecast for Brazil's 2025 soybean exports to a record high and lowered the estimated ending inventory [22]. - US soybean export net sales in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 met or exceeded market expectations [24]. - The IGC estimated that the global soybean production in 2025/26 would increase, trade volume would decrease, and consumption would increase [24]. 3. Financial Market Financial Sector - Six departments including the central bank issued guidelines on cross - border data flow in the financial industry [26]. - The Securities Association of China drafted an evaluation method for securities companies in promoting financial development [26]. - 28 wealth management companies' equity - related asset scale at the end of 2024 was relatively small [26]. - The number of public fund managers reached a new high [26]. Real Estate Market - Qingdao launched a "trade - in" housing program, planning to acquire over 1200 second - hand houses [27]. Industrial Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched an energy - saving and carbon - reduction diagnosis service for high - energy - consuming industries [28]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation launched an advertising market rectification campaign [28]. - The Ministry of Commerce continued to impose anti - dumping duties on Japanese electrolytic capacitor paper for 5 years [29]. - National railway passenger volume in Q1 reached a record high [30]. - The comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in March was above the warning line [31]. - Zhejiang launched a cross - border e - commerce market expansion action [32]. - A seminar on the "Product Digital Passport" is to be held, and related achievements will be released [32]. Overseas Market - Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates and believed Powell would leave if asked [34]. - The central banks of South Korea, Ukraine, Turkey, and Egypt made different interest - rate decisions [35][36][37][41]. - US economic data including initial jobless claims, manufacturing index, and housing starts showed mixed performance [38][39]. - Germany's March PPI decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [40]. - Switzerland's trade surplus in March increased [42]. - Australia's unemployment rate remained stable in March, and employment increased [44]. International Stock Market - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with some rising and some falling [45]. - NVIDIA's CEO Huang Renxun visited Beijing and expressed the hope to continue cooperation with China [46]. - Apple's CEO Cook had a private talk about iPhone price hikes [47]. - Blackstone Group's Q1 revenue and net profit decreased compared to the previous year [48]. - Hermès' Q1 revenue was slightly lower than expected, and it plans to raise prices in the US [49]. - UnitedHealth Group's Q1 revenue and profit increased significantly, but adjusted EPS forecast for 2025 was lowered [49]. - ASML expects strong performance in the Chinese market and has no plan to build a factory in the US [50]. - The "Stargate" AI project led by OpenAI and SoftBank is considering investing in the UK [51]. - Ford Motor recalled 24,655 vehicles in the US due to safety issues [53]. - Netflix's Q1 earnings exceeded expectations [54]. Commodity Market - Domestic commodity futures night - trading generally closed down, with some energy and chemical products falling and some rising [55]. - Domestic refined oil prices had the fourth cut this year, with the largest decline in nearly three years [56]. - Asia's Q1 cocoa processing volume decreased year - on - year [57]. - BHP Billiton's expected Q3 copper production and annual production guidance were announced [58]. - US EIA natural gas inventory increased less than expected last week [59]. - The price of domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate remained stable [60]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose, ending a two - day decline [61]. Bond Market - The bond market weakened, with treasury bond futures falling and bond yields rising. The central bank may provide liquidity support [63]. - Convertible bond indexes rose slightly, with some individual bonds having significant price changes [64]. - There were major events in the bond market, including bond redemptions, debt defaults, and full bond buy - backs [64]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted upwards [65]. - The RMB's share in global payments in March was 4.13%, slightly lower than the previous value [66].

银河有色 有色研发报告 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 2025 年 4 月 17 日星期四 | | 有色和贵金属每日早盘观察 | | --- | --- | | 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 | 贵金属 | | 期货从业证号：F03088215 | 【市场回顾】 | | 投资咨询号：Z0017510 | 1. 贵金属市场：昨日，因贸易紧张局势升级，伦敦金延续创记录涨势，将历史新高刷 | | | 新至 3350 美元，日内暴涨超 100 美元，最终收涨 3.06%，报 3350.03 美元/盎司；今晨 | | 研究员：王露晨 CFA | 高开后则将历史新高刷至 3357.92 美元。伦敦银收涨 1.34%，报 32.83 美元/盎司。受外 | | 期货从业证号：F03110758 | 盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 2.62%，报 792.56 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 1.14%，报 | | 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021675 | 8273 元/千克。 | | | 2.美元指数：美元指数再度下行，并一度跌至 99 美元附近，最终收跌 0.83%，报 | | 研究员：陈婧 FRM | 99.38。 | ...

2025年04月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：试探前高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：企稳反弹 | 2 | | 铜：库存增加，价格回升受限 | 4 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 氧化铝：价格承压 | 6 | | 锌：短期承压 | 8 | | 铅：区间震荡 | 9 | | 镍：基本面短线支撑，镍价坚挺运行 | 10 | | 不锈钢：成本或底部支撑，负反馈预期施压 | 10 | | 锡：小幅修复 | 12 | | 工业硅：盘面考验成本支撑 | 14 | | 多晶硅：交割资源或受限，关注市场情绪变化 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：月差走强，震荡走势延续 | 16 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2504 | 781.60 | 2.24% | 792.56 | 2.62% | | | 黄金T+D | 78 ...

2025年04月10日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：周三贵金属价格反弹；消息面，美联储会议纪要显示大多数官员担心关税对通胀影响持续更久， 一些人表示若通胀持续存在，增长和就业前景却减弱，可能面临"艰难取舍"；几乎全体支持上月会议的放慢 缩表决定，但多人认为此次会议没有信服的放慢理由；特朗普表示暂缓对中国以外国家的关税 90 天；经济数 据方面，欧央行表示贸易战可能拖累欧盟 GDP 约 0.25%，全年增速仅 1%。库存数据方面，印度 2 月白银进 口减至 250 吨左右；上期所白银库存昨日减少 64 吨至 1060 吨，金交所白银库存上周增加 37 吨 1768 吨。伦 敦 3 月库存减少 335 吨至 22124 吨，主要流向美国。近期国内白银价格走低，点价盘涌现，出现库存去化。 操作上，贸易战反复，建议白银空单控制仓位或者做多金银比。风险点：贸易战反复 基本金属 招商评论 铜 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏弱运行，但凌晨一点之后特朗普宣布对除了中国外的大部分国家关税下调到 10% 且暂缓 90 天增税，外盘铜价大幅上行。精废价差 1500 元左右。交易策略：建议逢 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a resilient performance in the aluminum market during the off-season, with expectations for a strong transition into the peak season [4][6] - Basic metals such as copper are experiencing a downward price trend, with market concerns surrounding U.S. tariffs and macroeconomic conditions impacting demand [4][11] - Precious metals are facing price declines due to weakened risk aversion, although uncertainties from tariff policies continue to provide some support [20][21] Summary by Sections Basic Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: The price has decreased, with a closing price of 76,840 CNY/ton. Market supply pressures persist, and inventory levels are increasing [4][11] - Aluminum: The price of aluminum has seen a slight decline, with the Shanghai aluminum closing at 20,640 CNY/ton. Supply continues to increase while demand remains weak [15][16] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices have decreased, with gold averaging 681.22 CNY/gram and silver at 7,993 CNY/kilogram. The market is influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. monetary policy [20][21] Minor Metals - Tin: The price of tin has decreased, with LME tin closing at 32,320 USD/ton. Market sentiment is weak due to rising supply expectations from Myanmar [38][39] - Rare Earths: Prices are on the rise, with neodymium oxide at 444,100 CNY/ton. The market is benefiting from improved fundamentals and strong demand from magnet manufacturers [6][31] Market Trends - The report highlights a cautious market outlook with mixed sentiments across various metals, driven by macroeconomic uncertainties and trade tensions [4][11][20]