1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience a sideways adjustment [2][4]. - For copper, the adjustment of the US dollar will limit the price decline [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to trade with a downward bias [2][13]. - The continuous reduction in lead inventories will support its price [2][16]. - Tin is expected to trade within a range [2][18]. - Aluminum will continue to trade sideways, the center of gravity of alumina will move downward, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22]. - Nickel prices will trade at low levels due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will trade sideways due to the short - term game between supply - demand and cost factors [2][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) 3.1.1 Fundamental Tracking - Gold: The closing prices of various gold contracts showed increases. For example, the daily increase of Comex gold 2510 was 0.25%, and the night - session increase of Shanghai gold 2510 was 0.88%. The SPDR gold ETF's position increased by 9 tons to 1,005.72 tons [5]. - Silver: The prices of silver contracts also rose. The daily increase of Shanghai silver 2510 was 2.16%, and the night - session increase was 3.90%. The SLV silver ETF's position decreased by 28 tons to 15,361.84 tons [5]. 3.1.2 Macro and Industry News - The risk of a US government shutdown is high, and the release of the September non - farm payrolls report may be delayed. Fed Governor Bowman believes that the employment market is more vulnerable and advocates for decisive interest rate cuts [7][8]. - The EU will resume sanctions on Iran's nuclear - related issues, and Iran is prepared to respond to any threats [8]. 3.1.3 Trend Intensity - Gold trend intensity: 0; Silver trend intensity: 1 [8]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 82,470 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.29%. The trading volume and open interest of both Shanghai and London copper decreased [10]. - The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 1,105 tons to 26,557 tons, and the inventory of London copper decreased by 25 tons to 144,400 tons [10]. 3.2.2 Macro and Industry News - US PCE inflation met expectations, giving the Fed more room to deal with the cooling labor market. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [10][12]. - Freeport declared force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and its comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower for copper and 6% lower for gold compared to the July estimate [10]. 3.2.3 Trend Intensity - Copper trend intensity: 0 [12]. 3.3 Zinc 3.3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 21,980 yuan, with a daily decline of 0.29%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest of Shanghai zinc decreased while that of London zinc increased [13]. - The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased by 990 tons to 57,573 tons, and the inventory of London zinc decreased by 1,025 tons to 42,775 tons [13]. 3.3.2 News - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council called on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition [13]. 3.3.3 Trend Intensity - Zinc trend intensity: - 1 [13]. 3.4 Lead 3.4.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,110 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.12%. The trading volume of Shanghai lead increased, and the open interest decreased, while the opposite was true for London lead [16]. - The inventory of Shanghai lead decreased by 820 tons to 34,764 tons, and the inventory of London lead decreased by 125 tons to 219,425 tons [16]. 3.4.2 News - US PCE inflation met expectations, and the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy [16]. 3.4.3 Trend Intensity - Lead trend intensity: 0 [16]. 3.5 Tin 3.5.1 Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 274,070 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin increased, while the trading volume of London tin decreased slightly and the open interest increased [19]. - The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased by 199 tons to 6,077 tons, and the inventory of London tin increased by 35 tons to 2,775 tons [19]. 3.5.2 Macro and Industry News - Similar to the news in the precious metals section, including the US government shutdown risk, PCE inflation data, and international political events [20]. 3.5.3 Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity: 0 [21]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy 3.6.1 Fundamental Tracking - Aluminum: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,745 yuan, with a decline. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,649 US dollars, also with a decline [22]. - Alumina: The closing price of the Shanghai alumina main contract was 2,901 yuan, with a decline. The trading volume decreased significantly, and the open interest increased slightly [22]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It generally follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [22]. 3.6.2 Comprehensive News - China's industrial enterprise profits in August showed significant growth. US consumer spending increased for three consecutive months, and the core PCE price index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [23]. 3.6.3 Trend Intensity - Aluminum trend intensity: 0; Alumina trend intensity: - 1; Aluminum alloy trend intensity: 0 [23]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel 3.7.1 Fundamental Tracking - Nickel: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,380 yuan, with a decline. The trading volume decreased, and the prices of related products in the industrial chain also showed certain changes [24]. - Stainless Steel: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,840 yuan, with a decline. The trading volume increased significantly [24]. 3.7.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period, and many nickel - related industrial parks in Indonesia have production adjustments due to various reasons such as losses [24][25][27]. 3.7.3 Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [30].

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) experienced mixed performance in base metals on September 25, with some metals declining while others saw slight increases [1] Price Movements - LME nickel decreased by 1.15%, settling at $15,240.00 per ton [1] - LME copper fell by 0.59%, closing at $10,275.50 per ton [1] - LME zinc dropped by 0.53%, ending at $2,922.50 per ton [1] - LME lead increased by 0.48%, reaching $2,009.00 per ton [1] - LME aluminum rose by 0.47%, priced at $2,664.00 per ton [1] - LME tin saw a slight increase of 0.20%, closing at $34,390.00 per ton [1]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity market is experiencing a range-bound fluctuation in Q3 2025, with prices significantly higher than in Q2. Precious metals, particularly gold, have performed exceptionally well, reaching historical highs, while basic metals like copper remain strong. The energy sector, however, is underperforming due to oversupply [1] - Looking ahead to Q4, the absence of recession signs in the US economy and the Federal Reserve's risk management-style interest rate cuts are expected to positively impact commodity price rebounds. Expansionary fiscal policies in the US and Europe are likely to boost overall demand [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - On September 18, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25%. This move is characterized as a risk management-style cut, essentially a preventive measure against potential economic downturns [2] - Despite some signs of economic weakening, the US economy has not entered a recession, with retail sales data showing a 0.6% month-on-month increase in August, marking three consecutive months of growth [2] - The Fed's recent statements indicate a more pessimistic view on the labor market, acknowledging a slowdown in job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while also raising inflation expectations for 2026 [2][5] Group 3: Historical Context of Interest Rate Cuts - Since 1982, the Federal Reserve has undergone seven major interest rate cut cycles, categorized into preventive and recessionary cuts. Typically, preventive cuts benefit precious metals and US equities, while recessionary cuts tend to negatively impact equities but favor gold prices [3] - The price movements of copper and crude oil are significantly influenced by the state of the real economy and demand for these commodities [3] Group 4: Domestic Economic Indicators - Recent macroeconomic data from China indicates a dual weakness in supply and demand, with industrial value-added growth slowing to 5.2% year-on-year in August. Exports also saw a decline, with a -0.4% year-on-year change, marking the first negative growth of the year [7] - Despite the slowdown in traditional industries, high-tech sectors continue to show resilience, with a 9.3% year-on-year growth in high-tech industrial value-added [7] Group 5: Policy Measures and Market Outlook - The frequency of new policy measures in China is increasing, focusing on market reforms, expanding service consumption, and local government debt management. These measures are expected to support growth in Q4 [8] - A potential global shift towards a new phase of monetary easing and fiscal stimulus could benefit commodity prices, although oil and agricultural products may underperform due to supply expansions and tariff impacts [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience a sideways adjustment. Copper lacks driving forces and its price will fluctuate. Zinc will see a slight decline. The decreasing inventory of lead will support its price. Tin and aluminum will trade within a range. Alumina will trend weakly sideways, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Nickel prices will trade at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate due to the short - term game between supply - demand and cost factors [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all increased, with daily increases of 1.87%, 1.69%, and 1.66% respectively. The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2510 also rose, with daily increases of 3.50%, 3.09%, and 2.19% respectively [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 23,071 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 3,974 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of some products changed. For example, the inventory of Shanghai Gold decreased by 0 kg, and the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 10,819 kg [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of gold is 0, and that of silver is 1 [8]. Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,920 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.30%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.08%. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,994 US dollars, with a daily decrease of 0.08% [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 201 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 3,668 [10]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 2,166 tons, and the LME Copper inventory decreased by 400 tons. The注销仓单 ratio of LME Copper was 8.19%, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the previous day [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 21,845 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.11%. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,900 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 0.05% [13]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 15,195 compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 9,947. The trading volume of LME Zinc increased by 938, and the open interest increased by 493 [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [14]. Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17,085 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.47%. The closing price of LME Lead 3M electronic disk was 1,999.5 US dollars/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.17% [16]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 13,989 compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 3,336. The trading volume of LME Lead decreased by 146, and the open interest increased by 953 [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead decreased by 2,747 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 1,700 tons [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [17]. Tin - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 269,880 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.97%, and the night - session closing price increased by 0.31%. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 34,270 US dollars, with a daily increase of 0.73% [20]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 12,188 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 3,060. The trading volume of LME Tin decreased by 9, and the open interest increased by 53 [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 182 tons, and the LME Tin inventory decreased by 5 tons. The注销仓单 ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the previous day [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of tin is 0 [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,685 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,877 yuan, a decrease of 57 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,280 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan compared to the previous day [24]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of relevant contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 4,581, and the open interest decreased by 10,619 [24]. - **Inventory and Other Data**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 63.70 million tons, unchanged from the previous day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 51.39 million tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons compared to the previous day [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, that of alumina is - 1, and that of aluminum alloy is 0 [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,730 yuan, a decrease of 670 yuan compared to the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,890 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 13,200 compared to the previous day, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract increased by 402 [27]. - **Industry News**: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. The approved 2025 RKAB nickel ore production in Indonesia is 364 million tons. A nickel - iron smelting industrial park in Indonesia has suspended all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons per month [27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0 [33].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of base metals in London, with most experiencing price fluctuations on September 23rd [1] Group 2 - LME copper increased by 0.21%, reaching $9993.5 per ton [1] - LME zinc decreased by 0.16%, settling at $2889.5 per ton [1] - LME nickel rose by 0.83%, priced at $15340 per ton [1] - LME aluminum saw a slight increase of 0.04%, priced at $2646 per ton [1] - LME tin experienced a rise of 0.74%, reaching $34270 per ton [1] - LME lead had a marginal increase of 0.03%, priced at $1999 per ton [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the precious metals and base metals industries, focusing on gold, aluminum, copper, cobalt, and rare earth elements [1][2][4][8]. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals (Gold) - Central bank gold purchases have become a major factor influencing gold prices, offsetting the net outflow from institutional investors during the interest rate hike cycle, leading to an increase in gold prices [1][2]. - Gold prices typically reach a peak around the second interest rate cut, with a sustained upward trend from the market's expectation of rate cuts to the confirmation of their frequency and magnitude [2][3]. - After the first rate cut, there may be a price adjustment, but there is potential for another price surge [2][3]. - In a soft landing scenario, gold prices are expected to fluctuate after peaking around the second rate cut, while in the event of systemic economic risks, gold may experience a significant pullback but will recover the fastest [3]. Base Metals (Aluminum and Copper) - China's aluminum production capacity is nearing its peak, leading to strong supply constraints, with limited supply growth expected [1][8]. - Recent disturbances in major copper mines have altered the supply landscape, resulting in limited price adjustments despite declining demand, reminiscent of the situation in 1984 [8][9]. - The anticipated price peaks for copper and aluminum are around $10,000/ton and $21,000/ton, respectively, with expected pullbacks being limited to within 5% due to supply constraints [9][10]. Cobalt and Rare Earth Elements - The potential extension of the Democratic Republic of Congo's cobalt export ban could lead to a tightening of global cobalt inventories, significantly increasing cobalt prices [4][11]. - The rare earth market remains stable, with increasing demand driven by high-tech industries and green energy transitions, suggesting a positive investment outlook for companies in this sector [4][12]. Additional Important Insights - The overall economic environment is expected to influence metal prices, with a focus on liquidity and inflation trends. If no technological revolution occurs, gold prices may fluctuate upwards due to increased liquidity and inflation [5]. - Investors are encouraged to seek individual stocks with strong growth potential, particularly those with clear mineral increment plans leading up to 2030 [5]. - The steel industry faces challenges due to declining domestic demand and increased export pressures, but there are opportunities for top companies to improve pricing and profit margins through supply-side optimization [13]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the metals industry.

Group 1: Background and Core Conclusions - The investigation covered all participants in the supply chain, focusing on "supply-side structural adjustment" and "industry supply-demand rebalancing" [2] - Goldman Sachs identified three core judgments: 1) Most commodity supply policies are in the planning stage but are positive for industry profit recovery; 2) If policy goals are achieved, the cement and steel industries will be most affected, with coal and cement potentially improving by 2026; 3) Short-term supply stability is uncertain due to supply-side "anti-involution" and new policy disturbances, while demand shows a "strong manufacturing, weak construction" pattern [2] Group 2: Supply-Side Core Line: "Anti-Involution" - The "anti-involution" policy focuses on capacity rebalancing through capacity exit, classified management, and limiting new additions to prevent long-term overcapacity issues [3] - Key industries prioritized include EV, photovoltaic, steel, cement, coal, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, with basic metals and chemicals following [3] Group 3: Key Policy Impacts - The new Mining Law effective July 2025 is a significant variable for supply, requiring "comprehensive development of associated minerals," leading to local supply disturbances [4] - Specific impacts include potential production halts in lithium and bauxite mining due to new regulations, with lithium production costs potentially increasing by 50,000 yuan per ton [4] Group 4: Commodity Supply and Demand Analysis - Steel and iron ore: Production cuts are uncertain, with local execution lacking; long-term capacity exit may reach 200 million tons, aiming to increase utilization from 71% to 83% by 2030 [5] - Coal: Operational capacity may decrease by 13 million tons by 2025 due to overcapacity and safety issues, while new capacity of 6 million tons is expected in 2026 [7] - Lithium: Cash costs for integrated lithium production have decreased to 70,000-80,000 yuan per ton, with potential further reductions [9] - Basic metals: Copper demand growth may slow to 4%-5% by 2025, while aluminum demand remains strong due to EV and electric bicycle needs [11][12] Group 5: Demand Side: Divergence with Growth Potential - Overall demand shows stable manufacturing-related demand while construction demand remains weak, with local government cash flow issues affecting new projects [14] - Key demand growth highlights include energy infrastructure projects boosting copper demand and new manufacturing trends driving aluminum demand [15]

Group 1: Base Metals - Copper prices have decreased, with Shanghai copper closing at 80,080 yuan/ton, influenced by the conclusion of central bank meetings and a gradual recovery in downstream orders as the peak season progresses [1] - The supply side shows notable contradictions, with domestic smelters undergoing maintenance but not significantly impacting supply due to imports; however, increased downstream orders are expected to boost refined copper consumption [1] - Aluminum prices have also seen a phase adjustment, with Shanghai aluminum closing at 20,760 yuan/ton; the overall theoretical cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decrease, leading to increased theoretical profits for the industry [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have risen following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, with domestic gold averaging 829.33 yuan/gram and silver at 9,964 yuan/kilogram, reflecting market concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [2] - The market is currently experiencing fluctuations in COMEX gold and silver prices, with gold trading between 3,650-3,700 USD/oz and silver between 41.5-42.0 USD/oz [2] - Suggested companies for investment include China National Gold, Shandong Gold, and Zhaojin Mining [2] Group 3: Minor Metals - The domestic market for antimony continues to operate weakly, with prices for various grades of antimony ingots and oxides decreasing by 0.4 million yuan/ton compared to the previous week [3] - There is a cautious attitude among major manufacturers regarding price adjustments, and the market is characterized by a weak supply-demand balance, leading to a prevailing wait-and-see sentiment [3] - Short-term price stability is expected for antimony ingots, with a forecasted range of 172,000-175,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 4: Rare Earths - Prices for rare earths have shown slight increases, with light rare earth oxide prices decreasing by 0.7% to 571,000 yuan/ton, while heavy rare earth oxides remain stable [4] - The integration of separation plants is ongoing, with processing fees rising above 20,000 yuan/ton, indicating a potential upward trend in the sector [4] - Companies to watch include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Guangxi Rare Earth [5]

Group 1 - The international spot gold price opened at $3642.99, reached a high of $3707.40, and closed at $3684.36, marking an increase of $41.67 or 1.14% for the week, continuing to set historical highs [1] - The US dollar index opened at 97.59, peaked at 97.80, and closed at 97.64, with a slight increase of 0.04% [3] - The wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 7502.56, reached a high of 7645.01, and closed at 7573.23, up 0.89% [4] Group 2 - The spot silver price rose by 2.17% to $43.07, marking a 14-year high, while platinum increased by 1.04% to $1406.15, and palladium decreased by 3.98% to $1149.50 [5] - NYMEX crude oil prices fell by 0.38% to $62.36, and various base metals also experienced declines [7] - The Dow Jones index rose by 0.37% to 46315.27 points, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also saw increases [8] Group 3 - The precious metals market has shown significant bullish trends, with gold prices up 40.42% year-to-date, silver up 49.15%, platinum up 55.58%, and palladium up 26.25% [9] - The market dynamics suggest that the current gold bull market is closely mirroring last year's performance, with expectations for further upward movement [9][10] - The technical analysis indicates that despite recent fluctuations, the overall trend for precious metals remains bullish, with potential for new highs [18][19] Group 4 - The recent performance of the gold market has been characterized by a strong correlation with last year's trends, particularly in terms of price movements and fund flows [26][36] - The COMEX market has seen significant increases in net long positions, indicating bullish sentiment among investors [27][38] - The global largest gold and silver ETFs have reported increases in holdings, reflecting growing investor interest in precious metals [50][52]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the prices of base metals are showing mixed trends, influenced by a strengthening US dollar, which is exerting pressure on the entire base metal sector [1] - Copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) increased by 0.3% to $9,975 per ton, while aluminum futures decreased by 1.3% to $2,671.50 per ton [1] - Market observers suggest that the potential benefits of a US interest rate cut may only become apparent after actual economic activity shows signs of recovery [1] Group 2 - Thu Lan Nguyen from Deutsche Bank notes that the outlook for the aluminum market remains uncertain, despite a significant increase in LME aluminum "cancelled warrants" last week, which provided some support for aluminum prices [1] - Recent increases in aluminum inventory have weakened market expectations for supply tightening [1] - Regarding the copper market, Nguyen mentioned that if the International Copper Study Group reports a "significant oversupply" in the copper market for the first seven months before 2025, it may delay the short-term recovery of copper prices [1]