1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the cotton futures market was in a bottom - building phase, with the annual trend mainly influenced by Sino - US trade relations, a significant decline in imports, and a notable increase in Xinjiang's cotton production. The price reached a low due to Sino - US trade tensions, rose due to supply concerns from import decline, and then fell back due to higher - than - expected new cotton production [1]. - In 2026, whether cotton prices continue to build the bottom or rebound depends on supply - side drivers. There is a risk of reduced planting globally, and the price is expected to move upward. The operating range of the cotton 2601 contract is expected to be 13200 - 14000, and that of the 2605 contract is estimated to be 13400 - 14500. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities at low prices, and downstream industrial customers can consider buying hedging opportunities at the lower end of the range [2][127]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Long - term Cotton Trends and 2025 Market Review 3.1.1 Long - term Historical Review - Since the listing of Zhengzhou cotton futures in 2004, its price has fluctuated greatly, with a historical low of around 9800 and a high of 34870. The price is affected by economic cycles, weather, and policies. The long - term trend can be divided into ten stages, including supply - demand balance, bull and bear markets, and periods affected by events such as the European debt crisis, Sino - US trade frictions, and weather disturbances [11]. 3.1.2 2025 Futures Market Summary - In 2025, domestic cotton futures showed a typical range - bound pattern. From January to April, the price declined due to unmet demand expectations and Sino - US trade frictions. From May to August, it rose due to supply concerns and eased trade relations. From September to November, it fell back as new cotton production pressure emerged [20][21]. 3.1.3 2025 Spot Market Summary - In 2025, the domestic cotton spot market showed a pattern of "range - bound with a slight shift in the center of gravity." The annual average price of 3128B cotton was 14791 yuan/ton, slightly up from the beginning of the year but down year - on - year. The price declined from January to April due to trade frictions, rose from May to July due to improved expectations and supply concerns, and fell again from August to November due to new cotton production expectations and weak demand [22][23]. 3.1.4 Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest - In 2025, the trading volume and turnover of cotton futures decreased. From January to October, the cumulative trading volume was 61340818 lots, a 24.41% year - on - year decline, and the cumulative turnover was 41646 billion yuan, a 31.3% year - on - year decline. The open interest was relatively stable, with a slight increase in October. As of the end of October, the open interest was 918452 lots, higher than the same period last year [25]. 3.2 Global Cotton Market Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Global Cotton Supply Market Analysis - **2025/26 Annual Global Cotton Production Growth**: In 2025/26, global cotton production is expected to reach 120 million bales (about 26.13 million tons), a 0.67% year - on - year increase. The growth mainly comes from Brazil and China, while the production of other major cotton - producing countries such as the US and India is flat or slightly declining. The final output of Australia is the main uncertainty [32][33]. - **2026/27 Annual Global Cotton Production Forecast**: In 2026/27, global cotton planting enthusiasm is generally expected to be average, and the area expansion motivation is limited. The core variable of future production will focus on yield performance. Brazil's production is expected to be stable but slightly decreased [38][39]. 3.2.2 Global Cotton Demand Market Analysis - **2026/27 Global Economic Growth Forecast**: The global economic growth is expected to slow down in 2026. Although the growth in 2025 was slightly higher than expected, factors such as high tariffs, public debt, and geopolitical tensions pose threats to the global economy in 2026 [46]. - **Textile and Apparel Markets in Developed Countries**: In 2025, the US textile and apparel market showed some resilience, with moderate growth in consumption and imports. The EU market had strong import growth, and the Japanese market had a moderate increase in both volume and value. However, in 2026, high tariffs will pose challenges to the US consumer market [47][52][55]. - **Asian Textile Markets**: In 2025, India's clothing exports increased by diversifying markets, Bangladesh's exports were stable but faced some challenges, and Vietnam's textile industry had a complex situation of "upstream production increase, downstream production decrease, and export value increase" [57][60][62]. 3.2.3 Performance of US Cotton Prices during the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Cycle - Since 2000, during the Fed's four major interest - rate cut cycles, the impact of interest - rate cuts on US cotton prices was limited. Cotton prices are mainly determined by supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - monetary policies only have an indirect impact [67][69]. 3.2.4 US Cotton Futures Prices Continue to Build the Bottom - In 2026, the pressure on the global cotton supply side will weaken. The planting enthusiasm for global cotton is decreasing, and the US cotton price has fallen below the production cost line. The demand side has high uncertainty due to economic growth slowdown and trade policies. The trend of US cotton futures prices in 2026 will focus on "bottom - building," and weather conditions will be the key factor [72][74]. 3.3 Domestic Cotton Market Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Domestic Cotton Supply Situation Analysis - **This Year's Production Expansion and Next Year's Policy Impact**: This year, domestic cotton production has significantly increased, mainly due to the expansion of planting area. Next year, the planting area is expected to remain stable. The key factors affecting production will be policies and weather [75][78]. - **2025/26 Import Volume Forecast**: In 2025, China's cotton imports decreased significantly. In 2026, the import volume is expected to remain low, with the estimated range between 1.1 million and 1.4 million tons [81][83]. 3.3.2 Domestic Cotton Demand Situation Analysis - **2025 Textile Industry Performance**: In 2025, the Chinese textile industry showed a trend of "stable production but reduced profits." The production was stable, but the profit margin shrank due to weak market demand and high costs [87][92]. - **2025 Domestic Sales Market**: In 2025, the domestic textile and apparel sales market was "stable in retail but under pressure in profits." The retail sales increased moderately, but the production enterprises faced operational pressure. In 2026, the market is expected to run smoothly under policy support [98][100]. - **2025 Textile and Apparel Exports**: In 2025, textile and apparel exports were under pressure due to factors such as global economic slowdown and US tariff policies. In 2026, the export situation will still be challenging, although the tariff advantage of Southeast Asian countries to the US is narrowing [103][105]. - **Substitution Competition of Polyester Staple Fiber and Viscose Staple Fiber**: The substitution competition between polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, and cotton is still strong. In 2026, the substitution pressure is expected to continue, and the price difference between cotton and chemical fibers will be the key factor [110][111]. 3.3.3 Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In the 2025/26 period, the domestic cotton market is expected to maintain a general supply - demand balance, with a slight increase in total supply and a slight decrease in consumption, resulting in a small inventory accumulation [112]. 3.4 Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis - It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities for the 5 - 9 spread. Based on the expected decline in imports, the support for the far - month price is gradually strengthening [116]. 3.5 Seasonal Analysis - According to the seasonal chart of the cotton futures index, the probability of price increases is relatively high in April and December, and the probability of price declines is relatively high in February and May [121]. 3.6 Cotton Market Viewpoint Summary and Operation Suggestions - In 2026, the supply side pressure is not significant, and the focus is on processing rhythm, planting area and yield expectations, and import market changes. The demand side faces challenges, mainly from the export market and substitution pressure. The price trend depends on supply - side drivers, and it is recommended to focus on buying opportunities at low prices [124][127]. 3.7 Cotton Option Market Analysis and Operation Strategies - For upstream enterprises, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. For downstream enterprises, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. For speculators, it is recommended to sell a wide - straddle combination strategy [134]. 3.8 Related Stock Price Changes - The report lists the price changes of some cotton - related stocks from January 2, 2025, to December 12, 2025, with different stocks showing varying degrees of increase or decrease [136].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and China's central economic meeting have boosted market confidence, while domestic cotton prices are rising due to resilient consumption, contrasting with weak international demand [1][4]. Price Review - Domestic cotton prices are firm, with Zhengzhou cotton futures averaging 13,794 CNY/ton, up 31 CNY/ton (0.2%) from the previous week, and the national cotton price B index averaging 14,960 CNY/ton, up 41 CNY/ton (0.3%) [2]. - Internationally, the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut has improved market sentiment, but U.S. cotton production adjustments have kept prices weak, with New York cotton futures averaging 63.89 cents/pound, down 0.44 cents/pound (0.7%) [2]. - The price difference between domestic and international cotton has widened to 2,401 CNY/ton, an increase of 129 CNY/ton from the previous week [2]. Textile Market - Domestic and international yarn prices have seen slight increases, with domestic C32S yarn averaging 20,785 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY/ton, 0.1%) and imported C32S yarn averaging 21,033 CNY/ton (up 41 CNY/ton, 0.2%) [3]. - Polyester staple fiber prices have decreased by 56 CNY/ton to 6,270 CNY/ton [3]. Market Outlook - The Fed's rate cut and rising expectations for Japanese interest rate hikes are influencing market dynamics, while Mexico's new tariffs on textiles pose additional challenges for Chinese exports [4]. - China's central economic meeting emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy and a focus on domestic demand, aiming to boost consumption through various measures [4]. - Global cotton supply dynamics are shifting, with increased exports from the Southern Hemisphere and a decline in planting area expected in Brazil and Australia [5]. - Domestic cotton sales are progressing rapidly, with a processing rate of 84.0% and a sales rate of 41.6%, both showing year-on-year increases [6]. - Despite a slight recovery in textile exports, overall figures remain down, with November textile exports at $23.87 billion, a 5.1% year-on-year decline [7].

新华财经北京12月12日电据农业农村部网站12日消息，近日，国家农作物品种审定委员会修订并印发 《国家级棉花品种审定标准（2025年修订）》，于2025年12月1日起正式实施。本次修订突出服务生产 需求、激励原始创新导向，重点提高了品种抗病、机收、产量及DNA指纹差异位点数等方面指标要 求，进一步引导提升审定品种质量水平。一是提高抗病性指标。要求枯萎病病情指数、黄萎病病情指数 分别达到高抗和抗等级，有助于应对现阶段棉花连作导致枯萎病、黄萎病加重发生风险。二是强化机收 指标。在生育期、植株形态结构、结铃吐絮性能、脱叶剂敏感度等指标上符合机收要求，引导提高棉花 综合机械化水平。三是提高产量指标。两年区试平均产量指标增产≥3%，同时每年增产幅度不低于1% （提高1个百分点），生产试验增产点率由≥50%提高至≥60%，明确不同纤维品质类型品种产量指标要 求，引导提升棉花单产水平。四是明确DNA指纹差异位点数指标。要求审定品种与已知品种DNA指纹 检测差异位点数≥3个，严防模仿修饰育种和品种同质化。五是新增耐除草剂转基因品种指标。根据生 物育种研发进展增加耐除草剂指标要求，更好适应当前国内生产需要。 （文章来源：新华财 ...

Group 1 - ICE cotton futures prices have shown a weak oscillating trend since the fourth quarter, with the main contract dipping to a low of 63 cents per pound due to the U.S. government shutdown causing data absence and global trade uncertainties, as well as unfavorable changes in U.S. cotton production estimates and export conditions [1] - The USDA's December supply and demand report indicates a slight increase in global cotton ending stocks, with initial stocks raised by 120,000 bales, production estimates reduced by 290,000 bales, and consumption estimates lowered by 270,000 bales, resulting in a net increase of 40,000 bales in ending stocks, reflecting overall stability [2] - The U.S. cotton production estimate was raised by 150,000 bales, while consumption was reduced by 100,000 bales, leading to a 200,000 bale increase in ending stocks, totaling 4.5 million bales, with a notable increase in the beginning stocks contributing to this rise [3] Group 2 - The U.S. weekly export report shows a significant increase in weekly cotton contracts, with a total of 66,300 tons signed, marking a 258% week-over-week increase and a 28% year-over-year increase, with Vietnam and Mexico being the largest buyers [4] - Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to decrease due to falling prices and adverse weather conditions affecting planting schedules, with the Mato Grosso state predicting a production of 2.58 million tons, a decrease from previous estimates [5] - In contrast, Pakistan's spinning mills are operating at a high rate, while Indian and Vietnamese mills are experiencing a downward trend in operating rates, with Pakistan's mills performing at their highest levels in three years [6][7] Group 3 - The EU's textile and apparel imports from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the U.S. increased by 10.68% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, with a total import value of €436.75 billion, while U.S. textile and apparel imports showed a slight decline in August [8] - The USDA's December report forecasts China's cotton production for 2025/2026 at 7.3 million tons, a 5% increase year-over-year, while India's production is estimated at 5.22 million tons, indicating limited adjustment potential for both countries [9]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The report's impact on the cotton industry is generally neutral [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's December report made minor adjustments to the supply - demand data of major cotton - producing countries, with a neutral overall influence [1] - In the 2025/26 season, global cotton supply remains relatively loose, and in the medium - short term, U.S. cotton may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [2] 3. Summary According to Related Contents 3.1 Supply - Demand Data Adjustments in the 2025/26 Season - **Production**: Global production was下调 by 64,000 tons. U.S. production increased by 34,000 tons to 3.107 million tons, and the rest of the major producers remained unchanged. The U.S. cotton harvest area was unchanged, but the yield per unit area increased from 919 pounds per acre in November to 929 pounds per acre [1] - **Consumption**: Global consumption decreased by 60,000 tons, with a 22,000 - ton decrease in Brazil's consumption, and the rest of the major consumers remained stable [1] - **Imports**: Global cotton imports decreased by 59,000 tons month - on - month, with a 21,000 - ton decrease in Vietnam's imports and a 22,000 - ton decrease in Bangladesh's imports. China's imports were unchanged [1] - **Exports**: Global exports decreased by 56,000 tons, and the main exporting countries remained unchanged [1] - **End - of - Season Inventory**: Global end - of - season inventory increased slightly by 9,000 tons month - on - month, with a 1,000 - ton decrease in China's inventory, a 44,000 - ton increase in the U.S. inventory, and a 45,000 - ton increase in Brazil's inventory [2] 3.2 Data in the Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: The total global production in 2025/26 (December) was 24.894 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons compared to the previous month [3] - **Consumption**: The total global consumption in 2025/26 (December) was 25.894 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons compared to the previous month [3] - **Imports**: The total global imports in 2025/26 (December) were 9.59 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons compared to the previous month [3] - **Exports**: The total global exports in 2025/26 (December) were 9.231 million tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons compared to the previous month [3] - **End - of - Season Inventory**: The total global end - of - season inventory in 2025/26 (December) was 16.541 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons compared to the previous month [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Kazakh government has approved an investment agreement for the establishment of a complete cotton production and garment manufacturing industry cluster in Turkestan region, aiming to enhance agricultural development and introduce advanced agricultural technologies [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project will create the largest cotton growing and processing complex in Central Asia, covering 60,000 hectares of irrigated farmland, generating over 1,400 long-term jobs and more than 300 seasonal jobs [1] - The investment from China Xinjiang Lihua Group exceeds 58 billion tenge for the first phase, with total foreign investment expected to surpass 200 billion tenge [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The project will introduce several previously unused technologies in Kazakhstan, including 196 efficient drip irrigation pump stations, over 500 kilometers of water distribution channels, and integrated fertilizer application systems [1] - The complex will also feature polyethylene recycling lines for drip tape and hose production, significantly reducing import dependency and achieving a closed-loop production from raw cotton to finished garments [1] Group 3: Agricultural Impact - The project is expected to significantly increase the domestic deep processing ratio and expand the production of high-value-added textiles, strengthening the local textile industry and enhancing export potential [2] - Turkestan region has traditionally been a major cotton-producing area in Kazakhstan, with cotton fields accounting for 15.9% of the region's arable land [2] - By 2025, the cotton planting area is projected to reach 144,500 hectares, with an expected total raw cotton output of 428,000 tons, achieving the highest yield in nearly 18 years due to the widespread adoption of water-saving technologies and high-quality varieties [2]

Core Insights - The average cotton yield in China for 2025 is projected to be 161.7 kg/mu, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year, with a total production estimate of 7.409 million tons, reflecting an 11.0% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Xinjiang's cotton production is expected to reach 7.047 million tons, marking a 12.2% year-on-year increase, driven by favorable weather conditions and improved agricultural practices [2] Group 1: Production Data - The national cotton planting area is estimated at 45.803 million mu, with a total production of 7.409 million tons, which is an increase of 11.0% year-on-year [1] - Xinjiang's average cotton yield is projected at 171.8 kg/mu, a 3.7% increase year-on-year, while Gansu's yield is expected to be 126.8 kg/mu, up 7.8% year-on-year [1] - The Yellow River basin is experiencing a significant reduction in cotton production, with an average yield of 76.9 kg/mu, down 4.2% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Production - Favorable weather conditions and refined management practices in Xinjiang have contributed to the increase in both yield and total production [2] - The promotion of high-yield cotton varieties and the application of integrated water and fertilizer management techniques have also played a crucial role in boosting production [2] - Despite initial lower yields in certain areas, overall production is expected to see slight growth due to increased planting areas [2]

近期，虽然USDA调增了全球棉花产量，但东南亚对美棉的签约量增加，给了美棉价格较强支撑。国内 方面，集中收购已结束，后期套保压力有限，远期供需紧平衡格局支撑郑棉价格震荡偏强运行。 国内棉花产量回升 近年来，我国棉花产量持续上升。第一，国家补贴政策使种植棉花的收益相较其他作物稳定有保障，因 此棉花种植面积增加；第二，棉花种植技术（棉种选择、滴灌技术等）不断进步，使国内棉花单产稳定 且在全球范围内处于偏高水平。叠加近年来棉花生长期天气情况良好，棉花总产量不断创新高。 2024/2025年度我国棉纺行业总消费量同比增长0.68%，其中出口同比增长24.25%，内销同比下滑 35.7%。 观察纺织服装上市公司的库存情况可以发现，2024年12月，终端企业仍在大幅累库，2025年中期通过降 价促销等实现小幅去库。不过，受政策强预期影响，2026年内销部分继续压缩的空间有限，存在好转的 可能性。 出口方面，2025年我国棉纺制品出口消费明显好于预期。具体看，我国对美国累计出口同比增长 0.48%，显著好于预期；对欧盟出口累计同比增长10.29%；对东盟出口累计同比增长6.28%；对日韩出 口累计同比增长7.48%。但强劲 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - **International**: The November USDA monthly report was restarted, with adjustments significantly bearish for the market. The USDA substantially increased the global cotton production for the 2025/26 season, including major producers like the US, China, and Brazil. Global cotton consumption was only slightly adjusted upwards, leading to a notable rise in global ending stocks compared to September and a return to inventory accumulation. US cotton production was significantly increased due to a marked improvement in yield, while exports were only raised by 40,000 tons, significantly increasing the sales pressure on US cotton. There is a possibility of a downward adjustment to the export target, but it depends on the negotiation situation between the US and other regions. Currently, with the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere, there is significant short - term supply pressure, and global textile end - consumption remains weak. In the short term, ICE US cotton faces strong pressure. In the medium to long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range, with limited further downward potential, but the upward drive is unclear and may be volatile. The focus should be on the subsequent sales of US cotton [5]. - **Domestic**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. As the cotton harvest in Xinjiang nears completion, the expected cotton production has recently rebounded after several adjustments, with the expected production in Xinjiang this year maintained at 7.3 - 7.5 million tons. Since the fourth quarter is still the period of concentrated listing of new cotton, commercial inventories are seasonally rising, and there is sufficient short - term supply. Zhengzhou cotton will still be suppressed by hedging positions. On the demand side, downstream demand has been weak since entering the off - season of the textile industry, but spinning profits have generally improved, and the pressure on finished product inventories is acceptable, without forming an obvious negative feedback, so the downward space of the market is also limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term. In the medium to long term, the expansion of downstream production capacity has increased domestic cotton consumption, and consumption in the new season is expected to remain resilient. With the expected low level of imports, the domestic supply - demand situation in the new season is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically after the seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in the cotton target price policy next year [6]. Strategy In the short term, the market will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium to long term, the center of cotton prices is expected to move up. It is recommended to build long positions in distant contracts on dips [7]. Summary by Directory 2025 Cotton Market Review - **ICE US Cotton**: Throughout 2025, ICE US cotton showed a volatile downward trend under the influence of loose global supply and external macro - pressure. Although there were periodic rebounds, the overall strength was weak. In the first half of the year, international industry news was relatively quiet. In early April, the market accelerated its decline due to the implementation of Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy but quickly recovered later. In the second half of the year, due to the good yield expectations of major cotton - producing countries, the market continuously traded on the expectation of global bumper harvests, and combined with the poor performance of US cotton export contracts, the US cotton futures price continued to weaken [1][11]. - **Domestic Zhengzhou Cotton**: The domestic Zhengzhou cotton market had five main stages throughout the year. From January to March, it fluctuated, with the post - holiday downstream trading improving after the negative tariff policy was exhausted, but the tariff issue resurfaced at the end of February, causing the price to decline. From April to June, it bottomed out and rebounded. After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, Zhengzhou cotton gapped down and plunged due to Trump's announcement of high - tariff policies, but rebounded as Sino - US trade relations eased. From July to August, it first rose and then fell back, followed by a relatively strong fluctuation. In July, the domestic commercial inventory was rapidly depleted, and the supply shortage expectation at the end of the year increased, and the price climbed continuously but then fell back from the high. In August, the tariff extension and tight spot supply supported the relatively strong fluctuation. In September, it accelerated its decline as new cotton was about to be listed and the yield increase expectation was strengthening, and the demand was weak. From October to the present, it fluctuated within a range. After the National Day, as the harvest progress accelerated, the expected new cotton yield decreased, and the seed cotton purchase price strengthened, and Zhengzhou cotton gradually stabilized and rebounded, but the upward space was limited by hedging pressure [12]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis Global: The ending stocks for the 25/26 season were significantly increased, and the supply - demand outlook is relatively loose The November USDA report was the first after the US government ended the shutdown. The USDA significantly increased the global cotton production by 520,000 tons to 26.14 million tons compared to September, including increases in the US, Brazil, and China. Global cotton consumption was only slightly increased by 10,000 tons to 25.88 million tons, with the increase in consumption far less than the increase in supply. Due to a slight increase in the beginning stocks, the ending stocks were increased by 610,000 tons compared to September and 310,000 tons year - on - year. The new - season global cotton market supply - demand outlook is relatively loose [16]. US: The USDA increased US cotton production, and the export target is still uncertain The USDA increased US cotton production by 190,000 tons to 3.07 million tons in November, mainly due to the significant improvement in yield. The new - season US cotton export volume was slightly increased by 40,000 tons to 2.66 million tons. However, the US cotton sales progress is still significantly behind compared to previous years, and it is still uncertain whether the export target can be achieved, and there is a possibility of a downward adjustment. As of November 16, the national cotton picking progress was 71%, behind the same period last year and the five - year average. The drought situation has slightly expanded, but its impact on cotton growth has weakened [19][20][23]. India: The yield is expected to remain stable year - on - year, and there are differences in import and consumption estimates The USDA made few adjustments to India's cotton supply - demand this month. The 25/26 season's cotton yield is estimated to be 5.23 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; imports are estimated to be 610,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons year - on - year; consumption is estimated to be 5.44 million tons, unchanged year - on - year; exports are estimated to be 280,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons year - on - year; and ending stocks are estimated to be 2.29 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons year - on - year. The India Cotton Association (CAI) has different estimates, with a decrease in yield, an increase in imports, a decrease in domestic demand, a decrease in exports, and an increase in ending stocks compared to the previous year [30]. Brazil: The yield increase expectation for the 25/26 season is stable, but the export target is challenging According to the November USDA report, Brazil's cotton production for the 25/26 season was increased by 110,000 tons to 4.08 million tons compared to September, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year. The USDA also slightly increased Brazil's cotton export volume by 40,000 tons to 3.16 million tons, and the ending stocks were increased by 60,000 tons compared to September and 160,000 tons year - on - year. The current sales progress of Brazilian cotton is still significantly behind, and the overseas textile and clothing export performance is weak, so the subsequent export of Brazilian cotton still faces significant pressure [33]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis USDA: Continuously increased domestic cotton production, showing a slight inventory accumulation in the new season The November USDA report significantly increased China's cotton production for the 25/26 season by 220,000 tons to 7.29 million tons, an increase of 330,000 tons year - on - year, and slightly increased imports by 40,000 tons to 1.18 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. The ending stocks were increased by 260,000 tons compared to September and 70,000 tons compared to the 24/25 season, showing a slight inventory accumulation [36]. BCO: Slightly increased the consumption for the 25/26 season, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose In November, the Cotton Information Network (BCO) made few adjustments to the domestic supply - demand data for the 25/26 season. The national production was stable at 7.42 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons compared to the previous year. Imports remained at the estimated 1.2 million tons. The annual spinning cotton consumption expectation was increased by 60,000 tons, and other consumption was decreased by 30,000 tons. Exports remained at 20,000 tons. The ending stocks were decreased by 30,000 tons to 6.33 million tons, but still increased by 170,000 tons year - on - year, and the supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose [40][41]. Purchase and Sale: The new cotton harvest is nearly completed, and the yield increase expectation is further strengthened As of November 20, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress was 98.9%, the delivery rate was 98.1%, the processing rate was 64.2%, and the sales rate was 27.9%, all higher than the same period last year and the four - year average. The expected new cotton production is 7.432 million tons, and the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton is 7.351 million tons, an increase of 755,000 tons year - on - year [44]. Import: The import volume in the 24/25 season decreased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a low level in the new season The domestic cotton import volume in the 24/25 season decreased significantly. The 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota is 200,000 tons. Although the tariff on US cotton imports has been reduced, the expected increase in domestic cotton production and the limited quota are expected to keep the new - season import volume at a low level. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative imported cotton was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 66.9% year - on - year [46][48]. Inventory: The commercial inventory turned positive year - on - year, with significant short - term supply pressure In October, the domestic new cotton was listed in large quantities, and the commercial inventory increased rapidly, turning positive year - on - year. As of the end of October 2025, the national cotton commercial inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month, and 43,400 tons higher than the same period last year. The textile enterprise's in - stock industrial inventory and available inventory also increased [51]. Direct Downstream: Mainly for raw material procurement based on rigid demand, and the finished product inventory pressure is acceptable The downstream demand is currently not strong but still has some resilience. The cotton yarn market has entered the off - season, with a decline in orders. The Xinjiang market is stable without inventory pressure. The grey fabric market is differentiated, with the clothing category weak and the home textile category having continuous sales. The weaving mills' inventory is low, and they mainly purchase as needed. The spinning profit has improved, and the inventory pressure on finished products is not large, but attention should be paid to the subsequent foreign trade orders [61]. Terminal Consumption: Domestic demand is growing steadily, and the foreign trade is under pressure but the export environment is expected to improve Domestically, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles have achieved stable growth this year. In October, the retail sales were 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative retail sales were 1.2053 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Externally, textile and clothing exports continued to be under pressure in October. However, the Sino - US negotiation has achieved substantial progress, and the export tariff has been reduced, which is expected to improve the export competitiveness. In the last two months of the fourth quarter, exports to the US are expected to pick up slightly, and the foreign trade export environment is expected to improve next year [70][71]. 2026 Cotton Market Outlook - **International**: The November USDA report is bearish for the market. In the short term, ICE US cotton faces strong pressure due to the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere and weak global textile end - consumption. In the medium to long term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range with limited downward space, but the upward drive is unclear, and attention should be paid to the subsequent sales [81]. - **Domestic**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a range due to sufficient supply and weak downstream demand. In the medium to long term, domestic cotton consumption is expected to be resilient, and the supply - demand situation is not expected to be too loose, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically after the seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to changes in the cotton target price policy next year [82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The cotton is likely to continue its oscillatory trend in the short term. The core logics are that the current Sino-US trade relations have eased, presenting a positive macro environment; there is a strong expectation of a bountiful cotton supply this year, and the subsequent hedging pressure will be significant as the cost gradually stabilizes; the downstream market shows a lukewarm performance, with enterprises' finished product inventories in a healthy state and a rigid demand for cotton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Dynamics - On the 20th local time, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released an employment report. The US added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, significantly higher than the market expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021. The non-farm employment data shows that the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is low, but currently, most Fed officials support a December rate cut. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a "25-basis-point rate cut" in December has risen to over 70% [2]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Commercial Inventory - As of November 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from half a month ago. The total inventory in Xinjiang was 2.9346 million tons, an increase of 593,800 tons; the total inventory in the inland was 377,100 tons, an increase of 278,800 tons; the bonded warehouse cotton inventory was 328,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons. The current commercial cotton inventory is at the highest level in the same period in history, and it is expected to remain at this high level in the next few months [2]. Industrial Inventory - As of November 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 931,400 tons, an increase of 59,400 tons, and an increase of 43,200 tons from the end of last month. The disposable cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 1.0875 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 99,840 tons, and an increase of 20,800 tons from the end of last month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.35 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 days and an increase of 0.23 days from the end of last month. The grey cloth inventory was 31.12 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.71 days and a decrease of 0.85 days from the end of last month. Currently, the finished product inventory of textile enterprises is in a healthy state, and the stable operating rate creates a rigid demand for cotton consumption [2]. 3. One - Week Data Overview - As of November 21, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.07%. The cotton spot price index was 14,796 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.07%. The main contract price of ICE cotton futures was 61.85 cents/pound, down 0.65 cents/pound from last week, with a decline of 1.04%. The NYMEX crude oil price was 57.98 dollars/barrel, down 1.97 dollars/barrel from last week, with a decline of 3.29%. The Shanghai gold main contract was 926.94 yuan/gram, down 26.26 yuan/gram from last week, with a decline of 2.75% [4][6]. 4. Domestic Market Basic Situation Raw Material Price Index - On November 21, the price center of raw materials showed mixed trends compared with last week. The short - fiber main contract closed at 6,162 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 1.22%. The cotton main contract closed at 13,460 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.07%. The cotton spot 3128B market price was 14,796 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.07% [10]. Domestic Cotton Yarn Price - On November 21, the price center of domestic yarns moved slightly higher compared with last week. The price of OEC10S airflow - spun yarn remained unchanged at 14,670 yuan/ton. The price of C32S carded yarn was 20,440 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.59% [12]. Imported Yarn Price - On November 21, the price center of foreign yarns denominated in US dollars moved slightly lower compared with last week, and the price center of foreign yarns denominated in RMB declined. For example, the FCYIndexJC32S arrival price in US dollars was 2.64 dollars/kg, down 0.01 dollars/kg from last week, with a decline of 0.38%. The FCYIndexJC32S port pick - up price in RMB was 22,840 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from last week, with a decline of 0.26% [15][19]. Cotton Price Spread - On November 21, the spread between domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128B and FCindex sliding - duty port pick - up price was 953 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and FCindex sliding - duty port pick - up price was - 383 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread narrowed. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and ICE main contract under tariff was 514 yuan/ton, up 111 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened. The spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and ICE main contract's converted disk price was 3,451 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread widened [23][25]. Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - As of November 21, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 3,456, a decrease of 1,579 from last week. Among them, the total number of warehouse receipts was 2,244, a decrease of 2,157 from last week, and the total number of effective forecasts was 1,221, an increase of 578 from last week [28]. Zhengzhou Cotton Futures - Spot Price Spread - As of November 21, the spread between Zhengzhou cotton main contract and CCI3128B spot price index was - 1,336 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week, and the spread narrowed [30]. Cotton Inventory - As of November 15, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 709,100 tons from half a month ago. As of October 31, the monthly cotton import volume was 90,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last month, with a decline of 10%, and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons, with a decline of 18.18% [33][35]. Cotton Inspection Volume - As of November 20, the Xinjiang cotton inspection volume was 3.3915 million tons, the inland cotton inspection volume was 14,900 tons, and the national cotton inspection volume was 3.4064 million tons [38]. Cotton Textile Industry PMI - As of the end of October, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of China's cotton textile industry was 52.66%, up 8.37 percentage points from last month, and it returned above the boom - bust line for the first time in seven months since March this year [40]. 5. Zhengzhou Cotton Market Analysis Macroeconomic Situation - The US federal government shutdown ended, which is expected to have a negative impact on the US economy in the fourth quarter. The market is currently focused on the Fed's possible interest rate cut in December, and the decision will depend on factors such as inflation and the employment market [41]. Cotton Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.9306 million tons, an increase of 1.9089 million tons from last month, with an increase rate of 186.84%, higher than the same period last year. The cotton industrial inventory of textile enterprises showed a stable - to - increasing trend [41]. Market Price and Supply - Demand - As of November 14, the CRB commodity price index declined slightly, and the ICE cotton futures main contract price fell. The latest global cotton supply - demand report was bearish. In the short term, cotton prices may be under pressure and show a weak trend [41].