油脂日报 | 2025-05-28 策略 中性 进口大豆库存回落，油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8044.00元/吨，环比变化+90元，幅度+1.13%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7740.00 元/吨，环比变化+36.00元，幅度+0.47%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9444.00元/吨，环比变化+62.00元，幅度+0.66%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8450.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.36%，现货基差P09+406.00，环比变 化-60.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7920.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.13%，现货基差Y09+180.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9620.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.63%，现货基差 OI09+176.00，环比变化-2.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：中国粮油商务网数据显示，截止到2025年第21周末，国内进口压榨菜油库存量为90.0万吨，较 上周的92.9万吨减少2.9万吨，环比下降3.17%；合同量为11.6万吨，较上周的12.7万吨减 ...

5 月 28 日山东德州报价 2.9 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.2 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期随着端午临近，鸡蛋性价比尚可，终端消费预计增加，渠道及 下游采购需求或增加，叠加淘汰有所加速，缓解供应压力，预计对蛋价形成 支撑，不过 5 月新开产量较大，供应压力仍较大，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存 储，节后进入梅雨季节，渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体 端午节日有利好，但高供应叠加天气，蛋价走势承压。中期来看，25 年 2- 4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前 期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远 期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长期来看，经过上半年养殖利润 不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季度新开产或环比减少，关注三 季度换羽淘汰及鸡病情况。短期端午节提振，蛋价存支撑，不过供应较为充 足叠加需求转弱，蛋价走势承压，三季度供需双增，区间操作为主，四季度 供应压力或有所缓解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月 后限仓，谨慎追空，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 饲料养殖 ...

油脂：市场紧张情绪缓和 油脂小幅回升 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 3、据外媒报道，咨询公司 Datagro 预估巴西 2024/25 年度大豆产量将达到 1.720 亿吨， 此前预测为 1.712 亿吨。预估巴西 2024/25 年度玉米产量为 1.327 亿吨，此前预测为 1.317 亿吨。 4、加拿大油籽加工商协会（COPA）发布的油籽压榨数据显示，2025 年 04 月，加拿大 油菜籽压榨量为 919345.0 吨，环比降 10.27%；菜籽油产量为 390276.0 吨，环比降 10.5%； 数据来源：Wind、金石期货研究所 一、宏观及行业要闻 1、上周我国菜油、棕榈油商业库存下降，豆油增加，三大油脂库存整体下降。5 月 23 日，三大油脂商业库存 185 万吨，周环比下降 1 万吨，月环比上升 8 万吨，同比上升 10 万 吨。其中豆油库存 70 万吨，周环比上升 6 万吨，月环比上升 10 万吨，同比下降 22 万吨； 菜籽油 79 万吨，周环比下降 2 万吨，月环比上升 2 万吨，同比上升 35 万吨；棕榈 ...

期货热点追踪 大商所油脂期货价格走弱，双重利空压制下，马棕油或进一步下探至.... 相关链接 ...

棕榈油周报 2025 年 5 月 26 日 增库周期过程 棕榈油延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨13收于3825元/吨，涨幅0.34%； 棕榈油09合约涨22收于8006元/吨，涨幅0.28%；豆油09合 约涨20收于7774元/吨，涨幅0.26%；菜油09合约涨114收 于9391元/吨，涨幅1.23%；CBOT美豆油主连涨0.3收于 49.22美分/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Protein Meal - South American soybeans' impact on the market is gradually weakening. Brazilian soybeans mainly affect the market through the trend of Brazilian basis. In June, the high - temperature weather in the US continues, with excessive rainfall in the east and significantly lower - than - normal rainfall in the western part of the Midwest, which may damage soybean growth. CBOT soybeans will fluctuate between 950 - 1150 before variables change and may rise if variables occur. In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [1][124]. Oils - In June, there is a high possibility that US soybean oil will oscillate and decline from a high level due to the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in May, and there is a high risk of a market decline in June. Domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation in June, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [2][125][126]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Market Review - In May, CBOT soybeans oscillated and closed higher. At the beginning of May, they showed a low - level oscillation trend. Later, positive factors such as the improvement of US soybean export prospects, the tightening of new - year supply, and the increase in US biodiesel blending ratio pushed up the price. Domestic soybean meal was significantly weaker than the external market. International oils showed differentiated trends, with US soybean oil reaching a high and then falling, and Malaysian palm oil oscillating downwards. Domestic oils followed international oils but did not break out of the previous oscillation range [4][5]. Part Two: Protein Meal - **Global Soybean Production Forecast**: USDA's May report shows that the global soybean production is expected to increase for the fourth consecutive year in the 25/26 season, with heavy supply pressure from South America. The supply pressure is most significant during the concentrated listing period of South American soybeans from May to June [9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: Argentina was affected by rainfall during the harvest period, which may reduce production. Brazilian soybean production is a foregone conclusion, and its impact on the market is mainly reflected in the Brazilian basis. The decline of Brazilian basis may slow down in June and may stop falling and stabilize [10][15][19]. - **US Soybean Situation**: In the 25/26 season, US soybean supply is tight, with low tolerance for yield reduction. The planting progress in 2025 is ahead of schedule, but the weather may be characterized by "flood in the east and drought in the west", which may damage soybean growth. US soybean exports and crushing demand in the 25/26 season have great uncertainties. Before variables change, CBOT soybeans will oscillate between 950 - 1150 and may rise if variables occur [26][29][40]. - **Domestic Protein Meal Situation**: In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [64]. Part Three: Oils - **US Soybean Oil**: USDA estimates that the production and demand of US soybean oil will increase in the 25/26 season, but the market sentiment has changed from optimism to pessimism due to the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy. In June, US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level [66][69][74]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Since March, Malaysian palm oil production has been increasing. In May, production may exceed demand, leading to inventory accumulation. In June, production may slightly decline, and exports may increase. The market has a high risk of decline and needs export demand and biodiesel policies to boost [75][79][84]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: USDA estimates that the global rapeseed production will increase by 5% in the 25/26 season, and the supply will be better than that in the 24/25 season. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by nearly 4%, but the inventory is still at a low level, with limited tolerance for yield reduction [90][93]. - **Domestic Oils**: In June, domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [123]. Part Four: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Protein Meal**: South American soybeans' impact on the market is weakening. In June, US weather may affect soybean growth, and there are uncertainties in US soybean exports and crushing demand. CBOT soybeans will oscillate in a range and may rise if variables occur. Domestic soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster, and spot and basis prices may decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow US soybeans [124]. - **Oils**: US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level in June. Malaysian palm oil has a high risk of decline. Domestic oils have an oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Lianpalmoil may oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to widen [125][126]. - **Operations**: For soybean meal, adopt low - level buying or selling put options. For palm oil, short at the upper limit of the range or sell call options. In arbitrage, go long on the soybean - palm oil spread and short on the oil - meal ratio [127][128][129].

期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约7994.00元/吨，环比变化-110元，幅度-1.36%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7760.00 元/吨，环比变化-54.00元，幅度-0.69%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9405.00元/吨，环比变化-35.00元，幅度-0.37%。现 货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8560.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.35%，现货基差P09+566.00，环比变化 +80.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8000.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.50%，现货基差Y09+240.00， 环比变化+14.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9590.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.31%，现货基差 OI09+185.00，环比变化+5.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：国际谷物理事会（IGC）最新月报显示，维持2025/26年度全球大豆产量4.28亿吨不变，贸易量 增加200万吨至1.83亿吨，消费量增加200万吨至4.29亿吨；结转库存减少200万吨至8100万吨。据国家粮油信息中 心，5月份马来西亚棕榈油增产较为顺利，5月1—20日，南马来西亚棕 ...

兼具口感、安全与健康的花生油，是中国老百姓餐桌上的优选。这样的好油，在油脂加工过程 中，如何在保持花生油独特"风味"的同时，很大程度保证"安全"，并不断提升品质？在实验室 里，科研人员和匠人们正在精益求精，寻找突破。 重大项目引领，直击产业痛点 2 0 2 5年中央一号文件提到，要挖掘油菜、花生扩种潜力。当前，我国花生产业高质量发展面 临一项重要挑战：在花生加工环节，约 5 0%—6 0% 的花生被用于榨取油脂，广泛采用的热榨 工 艺 虽 能 保 留 花 生 油 独 特 风 味 ， 却 引 发 一 系 列 问 题 ， 如 高 温 榨 取 致 使 油 脂 中 的 不 饱 和 脂 肪 酸、维生素等营养成分流失，削弱了花生油的营养价值；同时，花生饼粕中的蛋白质因高温 变性，导致花生饼粕利用价值大幅降低。 5月9日，山东省重点研发计划（重大科技创新工程）项目启动会召开，由胡姬花全球花生产 业研究院联合江南大学刘元法教授团队等共同开展的"花生油脂与蛋白高值利用技术与产业化 示范"项目正式启动。刘元法教授在启动会上谈到："我们本次科研项目的攻关核心，是通过 绿色高效加工技术提高花生油脂和蛋白质的综合利用度，大幅提升花生油 ...

2025 年 5 月 15 日 商 品 研 究 据外媒报道，联昌国际银行（CIMB）分析师表示，马棕油库存可能在 5 月环比增长 15%，达到 215 万 吨，这将对毛棕榈油价格施加压力。预计 5 月份毛棕榈油价格将在每吨 3700 林吉特到 4000 林吉特之间波 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 棕榈油：压力阶段性释放，下方存在支撑 豆油：美国生柴炒作密集，短期易涨难跌 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,184 | 涨跌幅 2.89% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,176 | 涨跌幅 -0.10% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,914 | 1.57% | 7,898 | -0.20% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,438 | 0.68% | 9,432 | -0.06% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,925 | 0.82% | 3,957 | 0.87% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the success of Ruifu Oil Co., a 93-year-old traditional brand, emphasizing its commitment to quality and innovation in sesame oil production, showcasing how a small-scale operation can evolve into a leading industry player through dedication and modernization [1][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Ruifu Oil Co. was established in 1932 and has transformed from a small sesame oil workshop into a leading enterprise with annual sales exceeding 600 million yuan, processing over 60,000 tons of sesame and producing 10,000 tons each of sesame oil and sesame paste annually [1]. - The company is recognized as one of the first "Chinese Time-honored Brands" and a national high-tech enterprise, reflecting its historical significance and technological advancement in the industry [1]. Group 2: Production and Quality Control - The company prioritizes high-quality sesame, sourcing over 3,000 tons from major domestic production areas and Africa, ensuring that the supply lasts only a month due to high demand [2]. - Traditional production methods are maintained, such as stone grinding and water extraction, which preserve the nutritional and aromatic qualities of sesame oil, demonstrating a commitment to craftsmanship [3]. - Ruifu has invested over 10 million yuan in a testing center to ensure product quality at every production stage, allowing for traceability of each bottle [3]. Group 3: Innovation and Market Adaptation - The company has adapted to modern consumer preferences by launching new products like black sesame balls, sesame yogurt, and dipping sauces, appealing to younger demographics [4]. - Ruifu has participated in the formulation of 17 national and industry standards related to sesame and sesame oil, holding 15 patents and various certifications, which enhances its credibility and market position [4]. - The company is expanding its global footprint by exporting high-end sesame products to over 30 countries, including the USA, Japan, and Germany, thus promoting Chinese sesame oil internationally [4].