Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8570 - 8820. The supply-side production schedule has decreased and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased [6][7]. - The polysilicon 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 41085 - 42445. The supply-side production schedule will increase in the short term and is expected to adjust in the medium term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline, and cost support remains stable [11]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production. The main bearish factor is the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 75,000 tons, a 1.35% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 77,000 tons, a 11.59% increase from the previous week. The polysilicon inventory is at a low level, the silicone inventory is at a high level, and the aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: In the Xinjiang region, the production loss of the sample oxygen - passing 553 grade is 3189 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - **Basis**: On July 14, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 55 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 551,000 tons, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 174,100 tons, a 12.99% decrease; the main port inventory was 124,000 tons, a 1.58% decrease [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 22,800 tons, a 5.00% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for July is predicted to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [9]. - **Demand**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has decreased to varying degrees, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline [10][11]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,450 yuan/ton [10]. - **Basis**: On July 14, the price of N - type polysilicon was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 4055 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 276,000 tons, a 1.47% increase from the previous week, and it is at a low level compared to the same period in history [11]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position has decreased [11]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - **Price and Basis**: Various contract prices of industrial silicon futures have increased to varying degrees, and the basis of some contracts has changed. The spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon in East China have also changed to varying degrees [17]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory of industrial silicon have decreased to varying degrees [17]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions have changed. The production of some regions has increased, while that of others has decreased [17]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of industrial silicon production in different regions and grades have changed. Some regions are in a loss - making state, and the profit margins of some products have changed [17]. Polysilicon - **Price and Cost**: The prices of different types of polysilicon and related products have changed to varying degrees, and the industry average cost remains stable [19]. - **Inventory and Production**: The polysilicon inventory has increased, and the production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components has decreased to varying degrees [19]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The monthly supply and demand balance of polysilicon shows that the supply exceeds the demand in some months [62].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 9th, polysilicon showed a volatile and upward trend, with the main contract 2508 closing at 39,270 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 5.03%, and the position increasing by 13,360 lots to 97,187 lots. The SMM polysilicon N-type silicon material price rose to 40,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable N-type silicon material also rose to 40,000 yuan/ton. The spot premium over the main contract widened to 730 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and downward trend, with the main contract 2509 closing at 8,140 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.67%, and the position increasing by 11,907 lots to 399,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price remained stable at 8,777 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rose to 8,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 90 yuan/ton [2]. - The polysilicon market is expected to gradually clear its production capacity through measures such as cost investigation and pricing, cancellation of planned restarts, state reserve purchases, the industry association setting a benchmark cost price, and re - positioning photovoltaics as an energy product rather than a manufacturing product. Currently, the trading logic of polysilicon is in a period of policy regulation and the fermentation of various news, and the expectation of anti - involution production cuts in the industry is accelerating. The market volatility has increased, and there is strong overall support. It is not advisable to short against the trend, and one can choose to wait and see or try to go long with a light position. For industrial silicon, although the warehouse receipts have decreased, the accumulation of social inventory suppresses the rebound space, so a high - selling strategy should be adopted. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts for both types of silicon and the opportunity to go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon after the PS/SI price ratio rebounds [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon and industrial silicon showed different trends on July 9th. Polysilicon was volatile and upward, while industrial silicon was volatile and downward. The polysilicon market is in a period of policy - driven production capacity adjustment, and the industrial silicon market is affected by inventory [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 8,165 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract increased by 125 yuan/ton to 8,160 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of some grades such as the non - oxygenated 553 silicon in Sichuan and the oxygenated 553 silicon in Kunming increased by 50 yuan/ton, while the price of the 421 silicon for organic silicon use in Kunming decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained unchanged at 8,250 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased by 125 yuan to 90 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 285, and the social inventory decreased by 400 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 885 yuan/ton to 39,270 yuan/ton, and the near - month contract decreased by 415 yuan/ton to 37,535 yuan/ton. The N - type polysilicon material price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 40,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 40,000 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 115 yuan to 730 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2,780, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 8.34 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 10,800 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 14,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers (single - crystal M10/G12) and battery cells (single - crystal M10/G12) remained unchanged [4]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][17][19] 3.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, industrial silicon factory warehouses, industrial silicon weekly industry inventory, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][23][25] 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost and profit of DMC, and cost and profit of polysilicon [28][30][32] 4. Non - Technical Content (Team Introduction) - The non - ferrous metals team of Everbright Futures Research Institute includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, with their respective educational backgrounds, research directions, and professional qualifications introduced [34][35][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery has shown signs, and cost support has risen. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8025 - 8255 for the 2509 contract [6]. - For polycrystalline silicon, the supply side production schedule continues to increase, while demand in the silicon wafer, battery cell, and component sectors continues to decline. Cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 38685 - 39855 for the 2508 contract [8]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand in the downstream polycrystalline silicon market [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 74,000 tons, a 10.84% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 69,000 tons, a 15.85% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains weak [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 3475 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - **Basis**: On July 9th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 8500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 552,000 tons, a 1.85% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory was 200,100 tons, a 10.34% decrease; and major port inventory was 126,000 tons, a 1.56% decrease [6]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions have increased [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's output was 24,000 tons, a 1.69% increase from the previous week. The predicted production schedule for July is 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer output was 11.9 GW, a 11.45% decrease from the previous week; inventory was 192,200 tons, a 4.42% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for July is 52.2 GW, a 11.28% decrease from the previous month. Battery cell and component production also show a downward trend [8]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon is 34,780 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 5220 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On July 9th, the price of N - type polycrystalline silicon was 40,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 08 contract was 730 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 272,000 tons, a 0.74% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 08 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and long positions have increased [8]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts have declined, with the 07 contract having the largest decline of 2.22%. Spot prices of various types of silicon in East China remained unchanged [15]. - Social inventory increased by 1.85% week - on - week, while sample enterprise inventory decreased by 10.35% week - on - week, and major port inventory decreased by 1.56% week - on - week [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - The prices of some silicon wafers and polycrystalline silicon futures contracts have increased. Silicon wafer inventory has decreased, while battery cell inventory has increased. Component production shows a downward trend, but exports have increased [17]. 3. Other Aspects (Price, Inventory, Production, etc.) - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trend**: Displays the historical trends of the basis of the main industrial silicon contract and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon [19]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises [22]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trend**: Presents the historical trends of industrial silicon production and capacity utilization in sample enterprises [24]. - **Industrial Silicon Component Cost Trend**: Displays the historical trends of electricity prices, silicon stone prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices in major production areas [29]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trend**: Shows the historical trends of production costs and profits of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang [31]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Reflects the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon, including production, imports, exports, consumption, etc. [33][36]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Covers aspects such as DMC price, production, downstream product prices, imports and exports, and inventory [39][41][44]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Includes price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) aspects [47][50][52]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polycrystalline Silicon**: Involves fundamentals, supply - demand balance, silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component, photovoltaic accessory, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation aspects [57][60][63][66][69][72][75][77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, although the spot and futures prices have rebounded recently, the oversupply situation is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and the selling pressure after the price rebound will suppress the silicon price. The operating range is expected to be between 7,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side structural adjustment has brought positive sentiment, and the short - term futures market is expected to be strong. However, there is a high risk of inventory accumulation, and the upward driving force is limited [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures and spot prices of industrial silicon have shown a resonance upward trend. For example, the industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 7,980 yuan/ton on July 4, 2025, with different price changes in various regions and grades [8]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon has rebounded from a low level. For instance, the N - type material price increased from 33.50 yuan/kg on June 27 to 34.50 yuan/kg on July 4 [8]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The demand for silicon wafers is insufficient, the price has decreased across all sizes, and the production schedule has dropped to about 52GW [3]. - **Battery Cell**: The production schedule of battery cells in July is expected to drop to about 54GW, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3]. - **Component**: The terminal demand for components has been severely overdrawn, new orders are limited, and the price is on a downward trend [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon continues to decline. As of July 4, the average price of DMC remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton, while the average prices of 107 glue and silicone oil decreased [96]. - **Silicon Aluminum Alloy**: The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has declined. As of July 4, the average price of ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of A356 decreased by 0.47% [109]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Industrial Silicon** - **Cost**: The power cost in the southwest production area is gradually decreasing, and the prices of raw materials such as silicon coal and silicon stone are also falling, providing insufficient support for the silicon price [3]. - **Supply**: The number of open furnaces in some regions has increased, and the overall supply is expected to rise. For example, in the week of July 3, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 13 units [37]. - **Demand**: The demand from polysilicon enterprises has increased, while the demand from organic silicon and silicon - aluminum alloy industries is average or weak [3]. - **Inventory**: The standard futures warehouse receipts are flowing out, but the inventory is still at a high level [3]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: In July, some enterprises increased production, and some carried out maintenance. After offsetting, the monthly output is expected to increase to about 110,000 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand for photovoltaic has been overdrawn, the domestic orders have decreased significantly, and the overseas orders are relatively stable. The demand for polysilicon is weak [3]. - **Inventory**: As of July 3, the total polysilicon inventory was 272,000 tons, and as of July 4, the number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts was 2,780 lots [3]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Organic Silicon**: The start - up of the organic silicon industry has recovered, but it is still mainly in a state of reduced production. The demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [89][93]. - **Silicon Aluminum Alloy**: The start - up rate of the silicon - aluminum alloy industry has rebounded slightly, but the demand is still weak, and the price has declined [104][109]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Industrial Silicon**: As of July 3, the social inventory of industrial silicon (warehouse inventory + delivery warehouse) was 552,000 tons, and the total factory inventory of the three major production areas was 201,000 tons. As of July 4, the number of registered exchange warehouse receipts was 51,701 lots, equivalent to 258,500 tons of spot [119].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Recommended for short - selling due to limited upside potential [1][5] - Polysilicon: Suggested to hold positions cautiously and wait for policy details to be released [1][6] Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's upward movement is restricted. The "anti - involution" policy in the photovoltaic sector has little impact on it. After the price increase, hedging by upstream factories limits the upside, and the decline rate of futures warrants may slow down. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy [5]. - Polysilicon's price increase is related to the expectation of the "anti - involution" policy. The details of the policy, such as the source of funds for capacity acquisition, need to be clarified. It is advisable to wait and see until the policy details are available [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures market fluctuated widely, and the spot price increased. The futures closed at 7980 yuan/ton on Friday. The SMM - reported price of Xinjiang oxygen - passed Si5530 was 8100 yuan/ton (up 400 yuan week - on - week), and the price of Inner Mongolia 99 - silicon was 8350 yuan/ton (up 450 yuan week - on - week) [1]. - Polysilicon: The futures market rose significantly, and the spot price quote increased. The futures closed at 35510 yuan/ton on Friday. There were no actual short - term spot transactions, and attention should be paid to the downstream's acceptance of the price limit [1]. 2. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory decreased. Yunnan and Sichuan entered the wet season with increased production, while Xinjiang's production decreased. The overall weekly output decreased. Some northwest silicon factories carried out hedging operations, and the southwest region still had the potential for production resumption. The futures warrants decreased by 0.7 tons this week, the social inventory increased by 10,000 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [2]. - Demand side: Short - term downstream demand increased. The polysilicon production schedule in July may continue to rise, increasing the procurement of industrial silicon. The organic silicon production decreased this week, and there are expectations of further production cuts, resulting in a marginal decrease in demand for industrial silicon. The aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and the export market is mainly for essential needs [3]. Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly output increased marginally. Some factories in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, and Qinghai resumed production. The upstream inventory continued to accumulate, and the pressure remained high. The market was trading on the supply - side changes brought about by the "anti - involution" policy, and the upstream quotes remained high without actual transactions [3]. - Demand side: The terminal demand declined, and the silicon wafer production schedule was continuously reduced in July and August. Silicon wafer enterprises planned to support prices, but the downstream's price acceptance was limited [3][4]. 3. Future Outlook - Industrial silicon: It is recommended to short - sell on rallies. The price increase was affected by news and market sentiment, but the "anti - involution" policy has little impact on it. Hedging by upstream factories limits the upside. The decline rate of futures warrants may slow down. The supply depends on Xinjiang's production resumption, and the demand has mixed trends, with high - level inventory reduction [5]. - Polysilicon: It is advisable to wait and see until the policy details are available. The price increase is related to the policy expectation. The proposed capacity acquisition plan has issues with the source of funds. The price may have reached a short - term high, and the demand will weaken in the third quarter without new policy support [6]. 4. Market Data - Industrial silicon: The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses from June 16, 2025, to July 4, 2025 [9]. 5. Charts and Graphs - There are multiple charts and graphs related to industrial silicon and polysilicon, including inventory seasonality, production, price, and profit trends, which help to analyze the market situation comprehensively [11][12][19]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Short - term news boosts rubber prices, but with expected increase in supply and weak demand, subsequent rubber prices are likely to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to raw material supply in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [2] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned new rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 13,950; the full - cream basis (switched to the 2509 contract) dropped 110 yuan/ton with a - 314.29% change; Thai standard mixed rubber quote increased 50 with a 0.36% rise [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased 20 yuan/ton with a - 2.34% change; the 1 - 5 spread increased 40 yuan/ton with a 61.54% change; the 5 - 9 spread decreased 20 yuan/ton with a - 2.17% change [2] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production increased 166,500 tons with a 157.52% rise; Indonesia's production increased 6,200 tons with a 3.19% rise; India's production increased 2,300 tons with a 5.07% rise; China's production increased 38,900 tons [2] - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory increased 10,313 tons with a 1.70% rise; natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory at the SHFE decreased 4,638 tons with a - 14.38% change [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the previous sharp rise in industrial silicon futures prices, the arbitrage window opened slightly. Today, prices dropped rapidly due to concerns about increased production in the southwest and by large enterprises. Although production cuts help reduce supply surplus, supply in July is still expected to be sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of coking coal futures prices [4] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon increased 50 yuan/ton with a 0.59% rise; the basis (oxygen - permeable SI5530 benchmark) increased 20 yuan/ton with a 4.76% change [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased 15 yuan/ton with a - 30.00% change; the 2508 - 2509 spread increased 20 yuan/ton with a 400.00% change [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the national industrial silicon production increased 20,000 tons with a 6.50% rise; Xinjiang's production increased 3,100 tons with a 1.90% rise; Yunnan's production increased 14,700 tons with a 146.26% rise [4] - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased 2,900 tons with a - 1.65% change; social inventory decreased 17,000 tons with a - 3.04% change [4] Group 3: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In July, with the reduction of electricity prices in the southwest's wet season, polysilicon futures increased in positions and decreased in price. The downstream product prices are still falling, and demand remains weak. The main contradiction in the polysilicon fundamentals is the mismatch between weak demand and restart expectations. Pay attention to changes in polysilicon production [5] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock remained at 34,500 yuan/ton; the N - type feedstock basis (average price) increased 835 yuan/ton with an 86.53% change [5] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract decreased 835 yuan/ton with a - 2.49% change; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased 300 yuan/ton with a 333.33% change [5] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased 0.54 GM with a 4.19% rise; monthly polysilicon production in June increased 4,900 tons with a 5.10% rise [5] - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased 8,000 tons with a 3.05% rise; silicon wafer inventory increased 1.37 GM with a 7.31% rise [5] Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The market is in an obvious surplus pattern. Although producers still have some profits, there will be a further profit - reduction process. After the previous photovoltaic restart, demand growth is limited. After maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. Hold short positions [6] - **Glass**: Spot sales have weakened significantly. In the summer rainy season, deep - processing orders are weak, and the glass industry still faces surplus pressure. Short - term sentiment has turned weak, and a short - selling strategy can be considered for the 09 contract [6] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: North China's glass quote increased 10 yuan/ton with a 0.88% rise; the glass 2509 contract decreased 26 yuan/ton with a - 2.58% change; the 05 basis increased 26 yuan/ton with a 2600.00% change [6] - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: North China's soda ash quote remained at 1,350 yuan/ton; the soda ash 2509 contract decreased 16 yuan/ton with a - 1.32% change; the 05 basis increased 18 yuan/ton with a 13.43% change [6] - **Supply**: Soda ash's operating rate decreased 4.36 percentage points with a - 5.04% change; weekly soda ash production decreased 38,000 tons with a - 5.04% change; float glass daily melting volume increased 1,000 tons with a 0.90% rise [6] - **Inventory**: Glass market inventory decreased 67,100 tons with a - 0.96% change; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased 11,000 tons with a 0.63% rise; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased 33,000 tons with a - 10.61% change [6] Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Yesterday, log futures weakened and fluctuated. The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan/cubic meter. Fundamentally, from June to August, log demand enters the off - season. With low arrival data in July and expected seasonal reduction in New Zealand's shipments, the market is entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log 2509 contract decreased 4 yuan/cubic meter with a - 0.51% change; the 7 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/cubic meter; the 09 contract basis was - 41 yuan/cubic meter [7] - **Import Cost**: The import theoretical cost was 775.09 yuan/cubic meter, a - 0.37% change [7] - **Supply**: Port shipments from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased 228,000 cubic meters with a - 13.20% change; the number of departing ships decreased 5 with a - 7.94% change [7] - **Inventory**: National coniferous log total inventory increased 10,000 cubic meters to 3.36 million cubic meters as of June 27 [7] - **Demand**: Log daily average outbound volume increased 0.21 million cubic meters to 6.57 million cubic meters as of June 27 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a slowdown trend. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy in the medium to long - term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan; the position of the main contract was 361,076 lots, up 5,325 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 57,543 lots, down 3,110 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 52,137 lots, down 336 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon was 25 yuan, up 20 yuan [3]. Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 8,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 735 yuan/ton, up 345 yuan; the DMC spot price was 10,560 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) were 410 yuan/ton, 1,670 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - Industrial silicon production was 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; social inventory was 542,000 tons, down 17,000 tons; imports were 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; exports were 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The production of organic silicon DMC was 44,200 tons, down 800 tons; the price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon overseas was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 24,179.3 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 1.645 million tons, up 117,000 tons; the operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 67.17%, down 1.23 percentage points [3]. Industry News - From 2022 to 2024, Hesheng Silicon Industry's net profit declined by 37.39%, 49.05%, and 33.64% respectively. In the first quarter of this year, it faced a "double - decline" in revenue and net profit. The US Senate Republican leader plans to vote on Trump's bill, which restricts new energy and affects the demand for the new energy industry [3]. Viewpoint Summary - On the supply side, the spot price of industrial silicon is weakly stable. Large factories in the southwest may start production due to lower electricity prices, and some small and medium - sized enterprises also have复产 plans. In Xinjiang's Yili region, the government will continue to subsidize electricity prices, resulting in a continuous supply surplus. On the demand side, the demand from the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) is slowing down [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the developments and trends in the silicon industry in China, highlighting the growth potential and challenges faced by the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The silicon industry in China is experiencing significant growth, driven by increasing demand in various applications such as electronics and renewable energy [1]. - The Chinese government is implementing supportive policies to boost the silicon industry, aiming to enhance domestic production capabilities and reduce reliance on imports [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - There is a notable increase in investment in silicon production facilities, with several companies expanding their manufacturing capacities to meet rising demand [1]. - The article mentions a projected growth rate of the silicon market, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% over the next five years [1]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the growth potential, the industry faces challenges such as fluctuating raw material prices and environmental regulations that could impact production costs [1]. - Companies are exploring innovative technologies to improve production efficiency and reduce environmental impact, which could present new investment opportunities [1].

Core Viewpoint - The news highlights a significant reduction in production from silicon companies in Xinjiang, leading to a rapid increase in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon, indicating a response to the anticipated reduction in supply amid an oversupply situation [1] Group 1 - The announcement of large-scale production cuts by silicon companies in Xinjiang has triggered a sharp rise in the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon [1] - Institutions suggest that this price increase reflects expectations of reduced supply in the context of an oversupply in the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7830.0 yuan, with a current price of 7690.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.26% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Haizheng Futures indicates that the industrial silicon market is showing signs of stabilization, although the fundamental factors do not support a price reversal due to increased production from Xinjiang and the southwest regions, leading to a rise in output [1] - Newhu Futures expects the industrial silicon main contract to maintain a bottom oscillation pattern, as the current demand from downstream sectors remains insufficient, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum alloys shows resilience, and the operating rate of organic silicon is recovering, which has led to a decrease in high inventory levels, primarily through warehouse receipts [1] - Despite the ongoing consumption of warehouse receipts, the overall inventory remains high, and supply is expected to continue increasing, while demand growth is limited, making sustained inventory reduction unlikely [1] Group 3: Price Outlook - The industrial silicon market is characterized by high inventory levels and an oversupply expectation, with the current market conditions leading to a weak maintenance of spot prices [1] - The overall market sentiment is leaning towards bearishness, with cost support remaining at lower levels, suggesting that the main contract will likely oscillate at the bottom, with recommendations to short on rebounds [1]