科技·掘金 年报一季报总结电话会议 20250504 摘要 • 2025 年一季度电子行业营收 8,392 亿元，同比增长 17.6%，归母净利润 355 亿元，同比增长 31.2%，毛利率维持 15.5%，净利率提升至 4.1%， 延续快速增长态势。 • 半导体设备领域受益于自主可控和 AI 创新，2025 年一季度营收 179 亿元， 同比增长 33.5%，净利润 26 亿元，同比增长 25.2%。 • PCB 板块受益于 AI 云端算力需求和周期复苏，2025 年一季度营收 624 亿元，同比增长 24.5%，净利润 53 亿元，同比增长 55.7%。 • IC 芯片设计板块库存压力减小，2025 年一季度营收 261 亿元，同比增长 16%，归母净利润 305 亿元，同比增长 72%，其中 ISOC 板块表现突出。 • 计算机行业一季度收入增长 12.7%，利润同比增长 94%，信创板块表现 较好，关注 AI 产业链、信创、工业软件等投资机会。 • 通信板块一季度营收超 6,300 亿元，小幅增长，归母净利润 500 多亿元， 同比增长约 7%，净利率大幅增长 5.2 个百分点，运营商云和 IDC 业 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The PCB sector in A-shares is projected to achieve revenue of 235.9 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.3%, with a net profit of 16.3 billion yuan, up 34.7% [1] - In Q1 2025, the PCB sector continued its growth trend, with revenue reaching 62.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.37 billion yuan, up 55.7% [2] Company Performance - Microsoft reported Q1 2025 revenue of $70 billion, exceeding expectations, with a net profit growth of 18% and EPS surpassing market expectations by approximately 10% [3][4] - Microsoft's Q2 revenue guidance is set between $73.2 billion and $74.2 billion, higher than market expectations [4] - Azure's growth rate is expected to be between 34% and 35%, with some forecasts suggesting it could reach around 40% [4] - Meta's Q1 revenue was $42.3 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising 35%. The company raised its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to $64-72 billion [4] Market Dynamics - Nvidia has increased orders due to anticipated tariff issues, which is expected to drive growth in AI PCB performance in Q2 [5] - Amazon's Q1 e-commerce revenue exceeded 40%, but Q2 operating profit guidance fell short of expectations due to tariff impacts, with projected operating profit between $13 billion and $17.5 billion, compared to market expectations of $17.6 billion [6] - Google's performance met expectations, with no increase in capital expenditure [6] Tariff Impact - Tariffs have affected major tech companies, with Amazon's Q2 operating profit being lower than expected due to these impacts. Apple also reported an increase in costs by approximately $900 million [7][8] - The actual impact of tariffs and economic data from June and July will need to be monitored to assess their effects on the industry [8] Capital Expenditure Trends - For 2025, major DSPs are unlikely to adjust capital expenditures significantly, even with the implementation of tariffs. Amazon's e-commerce business is most affected, but prior inventory levels may mitigate tariff pressures [9] - Google and Meta's advertising businesses are correlated with macroeconomic conditions, and tariff impacts will take time to reflect in their performance [9] AI Chip Market Developments - Nvidia faces challenges with product iterations, with revenue guidance for Supermicro being lowered from $5-6 billion to $4.5-4.6 billion [11] - New products from AMD and Google are expected to launch soon, which may help close the gap with Nvidia's Blackwell chips [12] - Companies like AMD, Broadcom, and related firms are seen as competitive in the AI chip market, with a focus on maintaining competitiveness despite Nvidia's challenges [13]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the performance of major US tech companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, in Q1 2025, highlighting their resilience amid economic concerns and tariff impacts [3][4][9]. Key Points and Arguments Apple Inc. - **Q1 Performance**: Apple reported a slight revenue and profit beat, with total revenue growth of approximately 5%, hardware growth of about 3%, and services growth of around 12%. Revenue from China declined by 2-3% due to currency effects, but remained flat when excluding these factors. The company expects Q2 growth of 0%-5% [1][5]. - **Tariff Impact**: Anticipated tariff increases of approximately $900 million in Q2 will not lead to price hikes, as most iPhones are now produced in India and other products like AirPods and Apple Watch are made in Vietnam, making tariff impacts manageable [1][5]. - **Future Investments**: Apple plans to invest $500 billion over four years to build a server base in Texas, significantly increasing its capital expenditures from the previous $9-10 billion annually [1][5]. - **Innovation Directions**: Future innovations include 3D printing technology and foldable devices, with 3D printing already in use for small components and foldable devices expected by the end of 2026 [1][5]. Meta Platforms, Inc. - **Metaverse Focus**: Meta is concentrating on its Quest and smart glasses products, with sales of the co-branded smart glasses with Ray-Ban increasing over threefold and monthly active users growing fourfold. A real-time translation feature has been added to enhance user experience [6][7]. - **AI Glasses Development**: Meta plans to launch new AI glasses in collaboration with Lucid, which may become a significant development direction in the next three to five years [6][7]. North American Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) - **Strong Demand**: CSPs like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Google are experiencing robust demand for computing power. Microsoft reported Q1 revenue of $70.07 billion, a 13.3% year-over-year increase, with cloud service revenue growing by 20% [9][10]. - **Capital Expenditure Guidance**: Meta raised its full-year CAPEX guidance to $64-72 billion, reflecting increased investments in AI-related data centers and infrastructure [10]. Amazon's Q1 revenue was $155.67 billion, meeting expectations, but its Q2 guidance was slightly below market expectations [10]. Domestic Computing Supply Chain Companies - **Resilience to Tariffs**: Domestic computing supply chain companies are less affected by tariffs, primarily due to low export ratios and FOB pricing structures [11]. - **Strong Q1 Performance**: Companies like Huadian, Shennan, and Shengyi Electronics reported strong Q1 results, particularly those with high AI exposure. For instance, Huadian's profits grew by 48% year-over-year [12]. - **Copper Clad Laminate Industry**: The copper clad laminate industry is currently experiencing high demand, with price increases expected due to supply constraints. Companies like Nanya Technology are seeing significant revenue growth [13]. Investment Opportunities - **High Value in Domestic Supply Chain**: Current investment in domestic computing supply chain companies is considered cost-effective, with strong performance indicators from both domestic and international CSPs suggesting robust demand for computing power [14]. Additional Important Insights - **Emerging Technologies**: The display and optical components of AI glasses are seen as having high investment value, with Micro LED technology expected to become mainstream [8]. - **Market Sentiment**: Despite concerns over tariffs and economic downturns, the overall performance of these tech giants indicates a strong market sentiment and potential for growth in the AI sector [3][4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The electronics sector is benefiting from the development of AI technology, changes in international relations, and product upgrades, with strong performance expected in Q2 2025. The current economic cycle may last until mid-2026, but tariff impacts need to be monitored, especially after the assessment of the US-China framework agreement [1][5][3]. Company Performance - The four major CSPs in North America (Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta) showed robust performance in Q1 2025, with a total capital expenditure guidance of $328 billion for the year, driven by growth in AI cloud services and better-than-expected performance in non-AI businesses. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical risks remain a concern [1][6]. - Semiconductor manufacturing, particularly SMIC, is expected to outperform industry averages in sales growth for 2025, with strong demand from automotive and consumer electronics sectors [1][10]. - The storage module sector is projected to see significant improvement in Q2 2025, driven by reduced production from manufacturers, inventory depletion in smartphones, and increased AI demand [1][12]. Key Drivers of Growth - Core drivers of growth in the electronics sector include advancements in AI technology, international relations affecting order flows, and product iterations. For instance, sales of the Rockchip 3,588 chip are expected to rise from 3 million units in 2024 to over 4 million in 2025 [1][3]. - The PCB industry is experiencing a recovery, with AI computing becoming a key growth driver, particularly for high-value multilayer and HDI boards [1][4][25]. Financial Performance Insights - In Q1 2025, many companies in the electronics sector reported record highs in revenue, profit, and gross margins, with SMIC showing strong performance despite the traditional off-season [2][3]. - The semiconductor packaging and testing sector saw mixed results, with some companies experiencing revenue declines but overall year-on-year growth in net profit [11]. Future Outlook - The electronics sector is expected to maintain strong performance in Q2 2025, with potential growth driven by AI applications and product innovations. However, the impact of tariffs remains uncertain and will require careful monitoring [1][5]. - The LED market is projected to reach $13 billion in 2025, with significant potential in Micro LED and Mini LED technologies [32]. Recommendations - Key investment recommendations include companies like Zhaoyi Innovation, Luxshare Precision, Goertek, and others that are expected to benefit from the developments in the electronics supply chain and overall market trends [45][46]. Additional Considerations - The impact of tariffs on the electronics sector is still being evaluated, with the potential for significant effects depending on the outcomes of US-China negotiations [1][5][43]. - The performance of the MEMS sensor industry in Q1 2025 was notably strong, with revenue growth of 96.18% and net profit growth of 792.76%, indicating a robust demand for new products [17][18]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the performance and outlook of the electronics industry and specific companies within it.

请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 l 证券研究报告 l 联合研究丨行业深度 从海外科技大厂供需超预期看国内 AI 投资机会 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 在关税冲击宏观经济和且硬件成本上升背景下，北美云商 25Q1 Capex 力度依旧强劲，建议关 注相关环节投资机会。 核心环节：云及 IDC、AI Agent、AI+算力等； 配套环节：柴发机组、燃气轮机、服务器电源、AIDC 电气设备等。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 赵智勇 杨洋 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490517110001 SAC：S0490517070012 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BRP550 SFC：BUW100 宗建树 于海宁 高超 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490517110002 SAC：S0490516080001 SFC：BUX668 SFC：BUX641 SFC：BUX177 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 丨证券研究报告丨 cjzqdt11111 2025-05-04 [Table_Titl ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electronic industry is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with a significant increase in revenue and profit for 2024 and Q1 2025. The total revenue for 2024 reached 38,160.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.65%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,587.86 billion yuan, up 25.73% [2][21] - In Q1 2025, the industry achieved a revenue of 9,070.15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.99%, and a net profit of 388.03 billion yuan, which is a 15.63% increase compared to the same period last year [2][21] Summary by Sections Overall Industry Performance - The electronic industry is showing signs of recovery, with a clear upward trend in demand and profitability. The growth is attributed to the recovery in the semiconductor sector and the resurgence of consumer electronics driven by AI integration [21][30] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector reported a revenue of 8,964.21 billion yuan in 2024, marking an 18.55% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 388.99 billion yuan, up 27.60% [6][40] - In Q1 2025, the semiconductor sector's revenue was 2,028.88 billion yuan, a 6.34% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 87.65 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.72% growth [6][44] Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics components sector achieved a revenue of 9,724.73 billion yuan in 2024, a 16.81% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 375.59 billion yuan, which is a remarkable 124.42% increase [7][49] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 2,281.54 billion yuan, up 17.77% year-on-year, with a net profit of 83.17 billion yuan, a 20.86% increase [7][52] Display Devices - The display devices sector generated a revenue of 5,390.33 billion yuan in 2024, a 4.91% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 56.38 billion yuan, which surged by 596.65% [8][24] - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 1,311.45 billion yuan, a 4.24% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 25.65 billion yuan, up 185.49% [8][26] Passive Components - The passive components sector reported a revenue of 459.69 billion yuan in 2024, a 15.09% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 47.92 billion yuan, up 4.58% [9][30] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 118.66 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.04% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 13.46 billion yuan, a 21.88% increase [9][32] LED Sector - The LED sector achieved a revenue of 1,200.46 billion yuan in 2024, a 3.84% increase year-on-year, but the net profit fell by 56.05% to 12.51 billion yuan [10][36] - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 282.31 billion yuan, a 2.59% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 10.09 billion yuan, up 1.85% [10][38] PCB Sector - The PCB sector reported a revenue of 2,365.09 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.08%, and a net profit of 157.24 billion yuan, up 23.35% [11][42] - For Q1 2025, the revenue was 625.09 billion yuan, reflecting a 24.40% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 51.99 billion yuan, a significant 55.85% increase [11][46]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Guanghe Technology plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategic layout [1] - Guanghe Technology was established in June 2002 and successfully listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on April 2, 2024, focusing on the research, production, and sales of multi-layer printed circuit boards (PCBs) [1] - The company has accumulated rich experience in the high-speed PCB field and has developed core technologies with independent intellectual property rights for server PCBs [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, Guanghe Technology reported a revenue of 1.117 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 42.41% [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 240 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 65.68% [2][3] - The basic earnings per share increased to 0.5642 yuan, reflecting a growth of 47.77% compared to the previous year [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 3.734 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.43%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 676 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 63.04% [1][4] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.117 billion yuan, up 42.41% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 65.68% to 240 million yuan [1][4] - The company is focusing on expanding its market share in computing power products and has made technological breakthroughs in high-layer PCBs and advanced HDI, which have been well received by customers [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 3.734 billion yuan, with server PCB revenue at 2.705 billion yuan, a 45.59% increase year-on-year. The gross margin for the year was 33.38%, slightly up by 0.08 percentage points, and the net margin was 18.11%, an increase of 2.63 percentage points [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the gross margin was 35.19%, up 1.61 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 21.52%, reflecting a 4.09 percentage points increase quarter-on-quarter and 3.02 percentage points year-on-year [4] Production Capacity and Development - The company is enhancing its production capabilities and digital transformation at its Guangzhou plant, aiming to improve product structure and delivery competitiveness. The Dongguan plant has commenced full operations, while the Huangshi plant aims to achieve profitability in 2025 [4] - The Thailand plant began equipment installation in December 2024 and is currently in the process of production line debugging and customer validation, laying the groundwork for long-term growth [4] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025 and 2026 are 2.20 yuan and 2.79 yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22 and 17 times [4]

Financial Performance - The company's 2024 annual revenue reached 143,700.99 million yuan, representing a 12.55% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 3,886.12 million yuan, with the loss amount increasing by 17.92% year-on-year [2] Industry Context - The domestic electrolytic copper foil production capacity expansion has slowed, but competition remains intense, leading to historically low processing fees [2] - The copper foil industry is experiencing overall losses, with a significant slowdown in capacity expansion and an expected gradual improvement in supply-demand relationships [7] Strategic Development - The company is focusing on vertical integration by expanding copper foil production capacity and enhancing the output of ultra-thin and thick copper foils [3] - Plans to increase production capacity for high-frequency and high-speed copper foils, as well as lithium battery copper foils, are underway [3] - The company aims to improve the utilization rate of PCB production and enhance the diversity and innovation of PCB product structures [3] Future Growth Drivers - The demand for consumer electronics is recovering, driven by the AI technology revolution and the expansion of data centers, leading to increased PCB demand [4] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, increasing the value of PCBs used in vehicles [4] - The company plans to optimize single-sided PCB product structures and improve profitability through customer expansion and application field development [4] R&D Focus - Key R&D areas include ultra-thin and low-peak copper foil development, as well as advanced aluminum-based PCB technologies [5] Profitability Strategies - The company will enhance product quality and yield, adjust product structures to increase the proportion of high-value-added products, and leverage its vertical integration advantages [6] Market Outlook - The global PCB market is projected to reach $94.661 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.8% from 2025 to 2029 [7] - The Chinese PCB market is expected to reach $50.804 billion by 2029 [7]

文 ｜ 裘翔 刘春彤 杨家骥 高玉森 连一席 遥远 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前，中美贸易谈判可能进展有限；国内的政策是托底和应对式的，4月只是第一波以试验和预防为特征 的政策；筹码出清相对彻底且对业绩不敏感的主题阶段性占优；市场整体情绪位置不算低，科技板块相对医药和消费更接近冰点，对风偏 回升更敏感。配置上，5月关注新技术和产业题材轮动、海外科技映射链修复以及服务业扩内需政策落地。 在彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施前， 中美贸易谈判可能进展有限 近期特朗普针对关税问题表态持续反复，美股市场反应较为敏感。但我们认为国内投资者不需要花精力关心这些高频变化，特朗普试图灵活 利用关税武器来制造谈判筹码，而中国商务部新闻发言人何亚东表示"如果美方真的想解决问题，就应该正视国际社会和国内各方理性声音， 彻底取消所有对华单边关税措施，通过平等对话，找到解决分歧的办法"。我们建议还是关注特朗普未来一年面临的两大约束，一是7~8月需 要推进债务上限谈判和减税法案通过，二是明年中期选举。尽管目前特朗普的民调支持率已经开始明显下降，但这属于每个美国总统百日新 政后正常的回落，而特朗普两次任期的民调本身就比其他美国总统偏低，目前 ...