Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the lithium carbonate industry may see a situation of increasing supply and demand, with the demand growth rate faster than supply, leading to inventory reduction in the industry. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - lines are above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 75,700 yuan/ton with no change. The net position of the top 20 is - 150,105 hands, a decrease of 12,910 hands. The main contract's open interest is 138,434 hands, a decrease of 20,566 hands. The spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 380 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts are 30,705 hands/ton, an increase of 19 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton. The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 872 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars/ton. The average price of amblygonite is 7,610 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton. The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,723 yuan/ton with no change [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, an increase of 1,260 tons. The monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, a decrease of 2,250.01 tons. The monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, a decrease of 218.09 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, an increase of 1%. The monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, an increase of 11,600 MWh. The price of lithium manganate is 32,000 yuan/ton with no change. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 81,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 25,000 yuan/ton. The price of cobalt - lithium oxide is 326,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,000 yuan/ton. The price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 155,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. The price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 134,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan/ton [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 144,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,500 yuan/ton. The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, a decrease of 2%. The price of lithium iron phosphate is 33,400 yuan/ton with no change. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 59%, an increase of 2%. The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,617,000 vehicles, an increase of 226,000 vehicles. The monthly sales volume is 1,604,000 vehicles, an increase of 209,000 vehicles. The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 46.09%, an increase of 0.55%. The cumulative sales volume is 11,228,000 vehicles, an increase of 2,908,000 vehicles. The monthly export volume is 222,000 vehicles, a decrease of 20,000 vehicles. The cumulative export volume is 1.758 million vehicles, an increase of 830,000 vehicles. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 19.86%, an increase of 0.03%. The 40 - day average volatility is 33.31%, a decrease of 0.45% [2] Option Situation - The total call open interest is 93,879 contracts, an increase of 15,242 contracts. The total put open interest is 35,432 contracts, an increase of 5,899 contracts. The put - call ratio of total open interest is 37.74%, an increase of 0.1861%. The at - the - money implied volatility is 0.31%, an increase of 0.0202% [2] Industry News - The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology states that to achieve the goal of providing stable and reliable connection and computing capabilities for intelligent connected vehicles, three aspects need to be strengthened: increasing the installation rate of advanced vehicle communication capabilities, deepening network coverage of the driving environment, and matching network characteristics with scenario requirements. According to KBB, the average transaction price of new cars in the US exceeded 50,000 US dollars for the first time in September, reaching a record 50,080 US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. The reasons include tariff - induced cost pressure on enterprises and the approaching expiration of the US federal electric vehicle tax credit policy. The vice - minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the ministry is formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan" for the development of the intelligent connected new energy vehicle industry, including clarifying development goals, deploying key tasks, accelerating the formulation of standards for combined driving assistance and autonomous driving, optimizing management in the production field of intelligent connected vehicles, and standardizing industry competition. In September, the sales volume of pick - up trucks was 46,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9% and a month - on - month increase of 14.6%. From January to September, the sales volume was 432,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. In September, the sales volume of new energy pick - up trucks was 4,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 104% and a month - on - month increase of 31%. From January to September, the cumulative sales volume was 54,000 vehicles, a 440% increase [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) emphasizes its commitment to enhancing cooperation with leading battery manufacturers and terminal OEMs, leveraging its stable and high-quality product offerings along with its scale advantages in lithium products [1] Group 1 - The company is focused on strengthening partnerships with major battery manufacturers and terminal OEMs [1] - The company highlights its product quality and scale advantages in the lithium market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate price is expected to oscillate between 74,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton in the next 1 - 2 weeks, with attention on the continuous game between supply increment and demand resilience. The current market is in an upward phase after breaking through the oscillation range, and the core contradiction lies in the game between the 4.32% increase in supply - side capacity utilization rate and the high - growth in demand - side new energy vehicle sales. Inventory depletion supports the price to break through the upper limit of the original oscillation range, but the significant decline in open interest indicates that funds are cautious about continuous growth [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Salt Market Introduction - **Price Changes**: The weekly average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.41% to 75,750 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed to 50 yuan/ton (a 90.2% week - on - week decrease). The main futures contract rose 4.07% to 75,700 yuan/ton, with open interest dropping 28.35% to 159,000 lots. The prices of other lithium salts also showed different degrees of increase, such as the price of electric - carbon lithium hydroxide increasing by 0.81% - 0.76% [2][4] - **Price Premium and Discount Changes**: For raw materials, the premium and discount of mica - based materials increased by 100, and that of salt - lake and recycled materials increased by 200; for enterprises, the premium and discount of Ganfeng Lithium decreased by 100, and that of Jiuling Lithium decreased by 200 [7] Lithium Salt Fundamentals Supply - **China's Lithium Carbonate Production**: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate reached 74.39% (a 4.32% week - on - week increase), and the weekly output of 20,635 tons hit a record high [2] - **Production by Region and Raw Material Source**: Not detailed in the provided content - **China's Lithium Hydroxide Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Mid - and Down - stream Consumption**: In September, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 22.9% year - on - year, and the retail sales in the first half of October reached 367,000 units, remaining at a high level, but downstream procurement weakened after the holiday [2] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Import**: The port inventory of lithium ore decreased by 5.17% to 55,000 tons week - on - week, and the import cost support still exists [2] - **Lithium Ore Transportation**: The freight rates from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained unchanged week - on - week [28] - **Lithium Ore Transportation Cost**: The freight rates for bulk and container transportation from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained stable [28] - **Lithium Carbonate Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Seasonal Changes in Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Lithium Hydroxide Import and Export**: Not detailed in the provided content Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Social Inventory**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Lithium Carbonate Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 11,983 week - on - week, with significant decreases in some warehouses such as Shanghai Xiangyu Speed - Transfer Warehouse and COSCO Shipping Nanchang Warehouse [41] Cost and Profit - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate was 74,294 yuan/ton, and the production profit decreased by 244.19% week - on - week to 1,456 yuan/ton, with the profit margin significantly narrowing [2] Lithium - Battery Fundamentals Market - **Cathode Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Supply - **Cathode Material Production**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Electrolyte Price and Production**: Not detailed in the provided content Demand - **Cathode Material Consumption**: Not detailed in the provided content Import and Export - **Lithium - Battery Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content - **Batteries**: Not detailed in the provided content Cost and Profit - **Ternary Materials**: Not detailed in the provided content Lithium - Battery Recycling**: Not detailed in the provided content New Energy Vehicles - Production and Sales - In September, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 22.9% year - on - year, and the retail sales in the first half of October reached 367,000 units, remaining at a high level [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply contraction expectation weakens, supply continues to grow, downstream purchasing remains cautious, the inventory preparation rhythm slows down, and demand may reach its peak. It is expected that the rebound space of lithium carbonate is limited. The recommended strategy is to sell short at the upper edge of the range, with an operating range of 68,000 - 78,000 [5][90] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - Last week, lithium carbonate fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 3.56%. The trading volume reached 1.41 million lots (+750,000), and the open interest reached 159,000 lots (-62,900). The basis was at a discount of 2,350 yuan/ton [7][8] 1.2 Supply Side Lithium Ore - In September, China's spodumene production was 6,800 tons of LCE, a month-on-month increase of 1.9%; China's lepidolite production was 8,150 tons of LCE, a month-on-month decrease of 9.2% [12] - In August, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 470,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 18.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.0% [16] - In August, the volume of spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China increased to 128,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 44.3% and a year-on-year increase of 26.6% [20] Lithium Battery Recycling - In October, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 27,934 tons, remaining flat month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 30.1% [23] Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,066 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.1% [28] - In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate rose to 21,847 tons, a month-on-month increase of 57.8% and a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [28] - In September, the volume of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 14.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 33.1% [30] Lithium Hydroxide - In October, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 40%, and the production was 27,020 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.8% [37] - In August, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 5,673 tons, a month-on-month increase of 354.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 45.6% [37] 1.3 Downstream Demand Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 85,039 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.7% [41] - In October, the scheduled production of iron phosphate was 329,270 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6% and a year-on-year increase of 58% [41] Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 17,247 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6% [47] - In August, the import volume remained flat, and the export volume increased [47] Ternary Precursors - In October, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 48%, and the production was 90,540 tons, a month-on-month increase of 16.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [52] - In August, the export volume increased [52] Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In October, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the production was 12,124 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 4% [53] - In October, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, and the production was 12,880 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2% and a year-on-year increase of 72% [53] Electrolyte - In October, the production of electrolyte was 200,180 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1% and a year-on-year increase of 30% [61] - In August, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased [61] 1.4 Terminal Demand Power Batteries - In September, the production of power batteries was 151.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 8.3% and a year-on-year increase of 35.8% [65] - In September, the installed capacity of power batteries was 76 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 21.6% and a year-on-year increase of 39.4% [65] New Energy Vehicles - In September, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.617 million, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% and a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [68] - In September, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.604 million, a month-on-month increase of 15.0% and a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [68] Energy Storage - In October, the production of energy storage batteries was 53.1 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 40.1% [72] - In August, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.7 GW, a month-on-month increase of 14.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 60.4%; the winning bid capacity scale was 18.65 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 11.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 31.5% [72] Consumer Electronics - In August, China's smartphone production was 10.04 million units, a month-on-month increase of 6.4% and a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [75] - In August, China's production of microelectronic computers was 2.769 million units, a month-on-month increase of 8.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.3% [75] 1.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore rebounded. The price of 6% spodumene concentrate increased by 7 US dollars/ton, and the price of lepidolite increased by 15 yuan/ton [80] 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2,143 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory decreased by 464 tons, the downstream's inventory decreased by 2,030 tons, and other inventories increased by 350 tons [85] - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 970 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials increased by 114 tons [86] 1.7 Market Outlook - The recommended strategy is to sell short at the upper edge of the range, with an operating range of 68,000 - 78,000. The supply contraction expectation weakens, supply continues to grow, downstream purchasing remains cautious, the inventory preparation rhythm slows down, and demand may reach its peak. It is expected that the rebound space of lithium carbonate is limited [90]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's performance has significantly improved due to the rise in potassium chloride and copper prices, with a notable increase in net profit [2][3] - The resumption of lithium carbonate production and the steady progress of new projects are expected to contribute positively to future earnings [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.35% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.751 billion yuan, up 47.26% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 2.756 billion yuan, an increase of 49.27% year-on-year - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 723 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.71%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 35.76% [1] Product Sales and Pricing - The potassium chloride sales volume for the first three quarters of 2025 was 783,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, primarily due to the release of approximately 80,000 tons from national reserves - The average selling price of potassium chloride was approximately 2,920 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.9% - The company’s lithium carbonate sales volume was 4,800 tons, a decrease of 53.0% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 67,300 yuan per ton, down 24.6% year-on-year [2] Investment Income - The company received investment income of 1.95 billion yuan from its associate, Julong Copper Industry, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.1% - Julong Copper's copper production was 142,500 tons, up 16.8% year-on-year, with sales volume of 142,400 tons, an increase of 18.1% year-on-year, and an average selling price of 83,000 yuan per ton, up 8.0% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The company has resumed production at its lithium subsidiary and adjusted its lithium carbonate production and sales plan for 2025, expecting both to reach 8,510 tons - New projects, including the completion of photovoltaic power station construction contracts and the progress of the Laotian potassium salt mine project, are on track [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected net profits of 3.645 billion, 4.845 billion, and 5.828 billion yuan respectively - The report maintains the "Buy" rating based on the anticipated growth driven by rising potassium chloride and copper prices [3][4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being the main issue. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch. The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to oscillate between 74,820 - 76,580 [8][9][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The September 2025 import volume was 20,000 tons, and the predicted import for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10% increase [8][9] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 102,818 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,963 tons, a 0.64% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][9] - Cost: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, but is below the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 74,442 yuan/ton, a 1.46% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 2,159 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica is 77,485 yuan/ton, a 2.13% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 7,190 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10] - Other factors: Bullish factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decline in spodumene imports. Bearish factors include high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline and weak demand from the power battery end [11][12] 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Price changes: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,000 yuan/ton to 73,350 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased from 70,750 yuan/ton to 71,100 yuan/ton, a 0.49% increase. The price of lithium ore and other related products also showed different degrees of increase [16] - Supply - demand data: The weekly operating rate was 74.39%, a 3.08 percentage - point increase. The monthly production was 311,670 tons, a 17.74% increase. The monthly demand for phosphoric acid iron - lithium increased by 12.75%, and the monthly demand for ternary materials increased by 25.89%. The monthly net import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,478.01 tons, a 59.34% increase [19] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of 6% spodumene increased from 829 US dollars/ton to 846 US dollars/ton, a 2.05% increase [16] - Production: The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica showed different trends in different years [24] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 55,950 tons, a 4.91% increase. The import volume from Australia decreased by 50.47%, while the import volume from Chile increased by 81.83% [19] - Self - sufficiency rate: The self - sufficiency rates of spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica showed different trends in different years [24] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating rate: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production showed different trends in different years [30] - Production: The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 87,260 tons, a 2.37% increase. The production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, recycling) showed different trends [19][30] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,846.92 tons, a 57.79% increase. The import volume from Chile was 15,607.56 tons, an 81.83% increase [19] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity utilization rate: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years [39] - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) showed different trends [39] - Export: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years [39] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Spodumene and lithium mica: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, resulting in losses. The processing cost composition of spodumene and lithium mica includes energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous items [10][44] - Recycling: The cost - profit situation of recycling different types of battery black powder (phosphoric acid iron - lithium, ternary) for lithium carbonate production showed different trends [46] - Other: The purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, and the profit of processing different types of lithium hydroxide showed different trends [46][49] 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate: The total inventory was 132,658 tons, a 1.58% week - on - week decrease. The inventory of smelters decreased by 1.33%, the downstream inventory decreased by 3.39%, and other inventory increased by 0.87% [10] - Lithium hydroxide: The inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) showed different trends [51] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The prices of different types of batteries (523 square, power - type square phosphoric acid iron - lithium, energy - storage 280Ah square phosphoric acid iron - lithium) showed different trends [55] - Production: The monthly production of battery cells (power - type ternary, power - type phosphoric acid iron - lithium, energy - storage) showed different trends [55] - Loading volume: The total monthly loading volume of power batteries was 76,000 GWh, a 21.60% increase. The loading volume of phosphoric acid iron - lithium batteries increased by 26.61%, and the loading volume of ternary batteries increased by 20.54% [19] - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends in different years [55] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The prices of different types of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) showed different trends [61] - Cost - profit: The cost - profit situation of ternary precursors showed different trends [61] - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors was 88,070 tons, a 20.82% increase for the 622 type [19][61] - Supply - demand balance: The balance in September 2025 was 5,258 tons, showing different supply - demand relationships in different months [64] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The prices of different types of ternary materials (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) showed different trends [67] - Cost - profit: The cost - profit situation of ternary materials showed different trends [67] - Production: The production of ternary materials from different series (NCA, 3 - series, 5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) showed different trends [67] - Export: The export volume of ternary materials showed different trends in different years [69] 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium - Price: The prices of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends [72] - Cost - profit: The cost - profit situation of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends [72] - Production: The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends [75] - Export: The monthly export volume of phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends in different years [75] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) showed different trends in different years [80] - Sales: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) showed different trends in different years [80] - Export: The export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different years [80] - Penetration rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different years [81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices stabilized and rebounded. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 increased by 3.6% and 4.1% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased, and the destocking rhythm accelerated, which supported the price and led to a rebound in the market [1][10][11] - In the future, the fundamentals of continuous destocking during the peak season support the price, but further upward momentum may depend on unexpected supply - side disturbances. Short - term attention should be paid to the sustainability of destocking and the volume and price in the spot market. In terms of strategies, short - term interval operations are recommended, and medium - term short - selling opportunities after the peak demand within the year are worth noting. For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the reverse arbitrage opportunity of LC2511 - LC2601 and the positive arbitrage opportunity of LC2601 against more distant contracts [2][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Destocking Acceleration and Warehouse Receipt Cancellation, Lithium Price Breaks through the Oscillation Range - Last week (10/13 - 10/17), lithium salt prices stabilized and rebounded. LC2510's closing price increased by 3.6% to 75,300 yuan/ton, and LC2511's increased by 4.1% to 75,700 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.3% to 73,400 and 71,100 yuan/ton respectively. The average prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.5%. The electric - industrial price difference remained flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate slightly widened to 270 yuan/ton [10][11] - Last week, warehouse receipts were continuously cancelled and taken out of storage, with a week - on - week reduction of 12,000 tons to 30,700 tons. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 132,700 tons, and the destocking rhythm accelerated. The continuous improvement of explicit inventory data supported the price, and the market sentiment recovered [1][11] 3.2. Review of Weekly Industry News - Zangge Mining: Its subsidiary, Golmud Zangge Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., officially resumed production on October 11, 2025. The temporary shutdown lasted 87 days, and it is expected to have a small impact on the company's 2025 operating performance [13] - Beijing Easpring signed an MoU with AMG to purchase lithium hydroxide. The cooperation shows their commitment to building a local battery supply chain, and they will work together to ensure the certification of AMG's production base and negotiate a binding purchase agreement [13] - Hainan Mining's Mali Bugoni lithium ore project shipped its first batch of lithium concentrate products on October 14. 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate will be transported to Hainan Yangpu Port to provide raw materials for the company's lithium salt processing project [14] - Tianqi Lithium: The 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, reached the battery - grade lithium hydroxide standard on October 17, 2025. The company will continue to optimize the project for continuous and stable production [14] 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Remain Stable - The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 846 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 7 US dollars or 0.8% [11] 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: The Market Stabilizes and Rebounds - The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 increased by 3.6% and 4.1% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased [10][11] 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: Quotes of Ternary and Lithium Cobaltate Surge - The spot average prices of ternary materials 523, 622, and 811 increased by 9.6%, 3.5%, and 2.3% respectively. The spot average price of lithium cobaltate increased by 14.6% [11] 3.3.4. Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles Reached 50% in September - In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 50%, indicating strong demand in the terminal market [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The downstream lithium battery industry is in the peak production season of the year, resulting in a temporary supply - demand imbalance with supply less than demand for domestic lithium carbonate. Social inventory is continuously decreasing, and the available spot in the market is tight after the holiday. This week, the exchange warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and lithium prices have moved up, with a short - term possibility of fluctuating in a relatively high range. If strong consumption and the macro - environment resonate, there is potential to break through the upper price limit. Meanwhile, Zangge Lithium Industry has officially obtained the mining license and resumed production, alleviating concerns about domestic resource supply. It is recommended to monitor the fulfillment of supply recovery expectations [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot and Futures Market**: On October 17, the morning quote of the Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was 75,535 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.46%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,750 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of the LC2601 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 75,780 yuan, with a weekly increase of 3.95% [12]. - **Supply**: On October 16, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 21,066 tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous week. The weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate continued to reach new highs. In September 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 87,260 tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous month and a 51.7% increase year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first nine months increased by 41.7% year - on - year. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year decrease and a 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, 11,100 tons were exported to China, a 14% month - on - month decrease. From January to September 2025, Chile exported a total of 164,700 tons of lithium carbonate, an 8.5% year - on - year decrease, and 120,900 tons were exported to China, a 17% year - on - year decrease. The reduction in South American exports from September to October alleviated the domestic import pressure [12]. - **Demand**: In September 2025, the global sales of new energy vehicles were approximately 2.1 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.6% from January to September. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 49.7% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 35.2% and 34.9%. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 46.1% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 47.0% year - on - year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 15.4% year - on - year. October is the traditional peak season for battery materials, which will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand [12]. - **Inventory**: On October 16, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 132,658 tons, a decrease of 2,143 tons (1.6%) from the previous week. After the holiday, the warehouse receipts continued to decrease. On October 17, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 30,686 tons, a 28.1% decrease from the previous week [12]. - **Cost**: On October 17, the quotation of SMM's Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 830 - 870 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 2.72%. The supply pressure of hard - rock mines has recently begun to ease, and the lithium concentrate previously held back by Western Australian mining companies will be released. It is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will increase significantly [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - The average price of the spot index of Mysteel MMLC lithium carbonate increased by 3.46% this week, and the closing price of the LC2601 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 3.95% [12]. - The average discount of the exchange's standard electric carbon trading market was at par. The net short position of the main contract of the lithium carbonate was approximately 121,000 lots [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,250 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 270 yuan [27]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Domestic Production**: On October 16, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate was 21,066 tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous week. In September 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 87,260 tons, a 2.4% increase from the previous month, a 51.7% increase year - on - year, and a 41.7% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year [32]. - **Production by Source**: In September, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 55,950 tons, a 4.9% increase from the previous month and a 98.8% increase year - on - year, with a 74.7% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year. The output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 11,580 tons, a 15.5% decrease from the previous month, with a 16.0% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year. The output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 9.5% to 11,960 tons, with a 9.1% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 7,770 tons, a 6.6% increase from the previous month, with a 22.9% cumulative increase in the first nine months year - on - year [35][38]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 21,845 tons of lithium carbonate, a 57.8% increase from the previous month and a 23.5% increase year - on - year. Among them, 15,608 tons were imported from Chile and 4,253 tons from Argentina. From January to July, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was approximately 153,000 tons, a 3.5% increase year - on - year. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a 13% year - on - year decrease and a 6% month - on - month decrease. Among them, 11,100 tons were exported to China, a 14% month - on - month decrease. The reduction in South American exports alleviated the domestic import pressure from September to October [41]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Battery - Related Demand**: The battery sector dominates lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while traditional application areas have limited and weak growth [45]. - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: In September 2025, global new energy vehicle sales were approximately 2.1 million, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.6% from January to September. In September, domestic new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%. From January to September, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 35.2% and 34.9%. From January to August, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 2.324 million, a 26.7% increase year - on - year, and in the United States were 1.063 million, an 8.1% increase year - on - year [12][48][51]. - **Battery Production**: In September, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, an 8.3% increase from the previous month and a 35.4% increase year - on - year. From January to September, the cumulative production of power and other batteries was 1,121.9 GWh, a 51.4% increase year - on - year [54]. - **Material Production**: From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 47.0% year - on - year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 15.4% year - on - year. October is the traditional peak season for battery materials, which will drive the continued growth of lithium carbonate demand [57]. 3.5 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: On October 16, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was 132,658 tons, a 1.6% decrease from the previous week. On October 17, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 30,686 tons, a 28.1% decrease from the previous week [64]. - **Other Inventory Indicators**: The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a multi - year low due to export rush [67]. 3.6 Cost Side - **Lithium Concentrate Price**: On October 17, the quotation of SMM's Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 830 - 870 US dollars per ton, with a weekly increase of 2.72% [12]. - **Lithium Concentrate Imports**: In August, domestic lithium concentrate imports were 471,000 tons, a 4.0% decrease year - on - year and an 18.3% decrease from the previous month. From January to August, domestic lithium concentrate imports were 3.85 million tons, the same as the previous year. In August, lithium concentrate imports from Australia decreased by 50% month - on - month, while those from Africa increased by 82.2% month - on - month. From January to August, lithium concentrate imports from Australia increased by 3.4% year - on - year, and those from Africa decreased by 8.8% year - on - year. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has recently begun to ease, and it is expected that subsequent lithium ore imports will increase significantly [77].

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures have broken out of a prolonged consolidation phase, with the main contract reaching 76,840 yuan/ton, indicating a recovery from the decline observed in early September. The rise is attributed to marginal improvements in supply and demand fundamentals [2]. Supply Side - The supply side has shown signs of improvement, with increased production from certain mines alleviating concerns over supply uncertainty. Weekly lithium carbonate production reached approximately 21,100 tons as of October 17, marking a 431-ton increase from the previous week and setting a new historical high. Notably, production from salt lake sources grew by 7.2% [3]. - The resumption of operations at Zangge Mining on October 11 and ongoing resource verification in Jiangxi are expected to sustain high domestic lithium carbonate production, potentially exceeding 90,000 tons in October [3]. Demand Side - Demand for lithium carbonate remains robust, with significant growth in battery production and sales. In September, the combined production of power batteries and other batteries reached 151.2 GWh, reflecting an 8.3% month-on-month increase and a 35.4% year-on-year increase. Sales figures also showed strong performance, with a 9% month-on-month increase and a 42.2% year-on-year increase [3]. Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by strong supply and demand dynamics. While supply is recovering, the demand side is performing even better, suggesting that lithium carbonate will continue to experience a depletion trend [3]. - There are uncertainties regarding key lithium mine supplies, particularly with the Ningde Times' Xianxiawo mining area, which has seen reduced inventory and lower operating rates at related smelting plants. This situation has led downstream companies to rely more on the futures market for securing raw materials, supporting the price increase of lithium carbonate [4]. Future Outlook - In the short term, the lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a depletion trend and price increases due to the uncertain resumption timeline of the Ningde Times' mining area and stronger-than-expected seasonal demand. However, in the long term, significant price increases may attract more supply, and the overall supply-demand relationship is improving but not reversing [4][5]. - The expectation of reduced supply constraints has lessened, but the global lithium resource capacity is still in a release phase, which may exert pressure on the lithium carbonate fundamentals in the medium term [5].

Core Viewpoint - Ganfeng Lithium announced the authorization to dispose of part of its stock assets to optimize asset structure and improve operational efficiency [1] Group 1: Company Actions - The company will hold its sixth board meeting on October 17, 2025, to review the proposal for asset disposal [1] - The board has authorized management to sell publicly listed stock assets based on market conditions, with a total transaction amount not exceeding 10% of the latest audited net assets attributable to shareholders [1] - The authorization includes flexibility in transaction methods, timing, pricing, and quantity, valid for 12 months from the board's approval [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - The decision aims to release part of the company's asset value, indicating a strategic move to enhance financial performance [1] - The total amount for asset disposal is capped at 10% of the company's most recent audited net assets, reflecting a cautious approach to asset management [1]