Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Guangxi International Agricultural Expo is scheduled to take place from November 6 to 9 in Nanning, focusing on promoting agricultural development and showcasing local products [2][3][52]. Group 1: Event Details - The expo will last for four days and will emphasize themes such as "integrated development, circular convenience, new quality empowerment, and rural revitalization" [3][4]. - It aims to facilitate precise matching of agricultural product sales, support import and export trade, and promote new agricultural technologies [4][5]. Group 2: Agricultural Development in Guangxi - Guangxi has been actively developing modern characteristic agriculture, establishing several key agricultural industry clusters, including sugarcane, fruits, and silkworms, which rank first in the country [8][9]. - The region has cultivated numerous "Guizhou" agricultural brands, such as Liupanshui tea, Guangxi sugar oranges, and more [10][11]. Group 3: Exhibition Highlights - The expo will prominently feature "Guizhou" brands, including fresh products like Rong'an kumquats and Tian Deng chili sauce [14][15]. - The exhibition area will cover approximately 30,000 square meters with 10 exhibition halls, showcasing national premium agricultural products and new technologies [19][21]. Group 4: Collaboration and Market Expansion - The Guangdong-Guangxi cooperation exhibition area will highlight agricultural collaboration results and products from both regions [24][25]. - The cooperation team has organized over 30 sales matching activities targeting major markets to promote Guangxi's high-quality agricultural products [36][38]. Group 5: Media and Marketing Strategy - The expo will leverage a "media+" strategy to enhance the visibility of Guangxi's agricultural brands through various online promotional activities [41][44]. - The integration of media resources aims to create a collaborative system that boosts brand value and market reach [48][50].

2025可持续全球领导者大会于10月16日-18日在上海市黄浦区世博园区召开。中粮集团副总经理，蒙牛 乳业董事长庆立军表示，在生产端，中粮集团深入田间地头，与农业生产者共同制定生产计划，同时利 用中粮集团规模化的经营优势，帮助他们以更加低的价格获得种子、化肥等生产资料，实现降本增收。 在收获的季节，中粮集团采用机械化桶仓，对农产品进行存储，桶仓具备多相功能，有效降低了存储过 程中的损耗。在销售端，中粮通过监测全球市场价格变动，帮助农民选择最佳的产品出售时机，实现收 益。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the integration of "Party Building + Business" to support industrial upgrades and high-quality development, focusing on tailored financing solutions for key sectors such as agricultural processing, public transport, chemical production, and non-ferrous metal smelting [1] Group 2 - A specific case highlights a food company in Binzhou, a national key leading enterprise in agricultural industrialization, which processes 2 million tons of wheat annually and is undergoing a smart and green transformation of its production line [2] Group 3 - The bank's client manager quickly acted upon understanding the company's needs, utilizing innovative product solutions to complete a 5-year fixed asset loan process in just 20 days, enabling the company to save and increase production of high-quality flour by 27,000 tons and wheat protein powder by 4,300 tons annually [3] Group 4 - The bank has approved a total of 507 million yuan in equipment procurement loans across various industries, including public transport, chemical production, and non-ferrous metal smelting, to support green development initiatives [4] Group 5 - Future plans include increasing financial support for rural revitalization and green economy initiatives, continuously innovating financial products and service models to address corporate funding challenges and promote transformation and upgrading [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: Amid Sino - US trade frictions, market risk preferences may be suppressed in the short - term, but the long - term upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged. The bond market is affected by the strong stock market, and gold and silver maintain their strength due to geopolitical and policy factors [2]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities have different trends. For example, the shipping index is short - term strong, while steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors, and most chemical products are under downward pressure due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Equity Index** - **Trend**: Sino - US trade frictions lead to short - term fluctuations in the stock index, which is expected to fall first and then rebound. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged. The export chain is warming up, and the index rebounds with shrinking volume [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Conservative investors can wait for the volatility to converge and then enter the market at low prices, mainly by selling put options at the support level [2]. **Treasury Bonds** - **Trend**: The 10 - year Treasury bond has different values at different interest rate levels. The short - term bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within the range, and the T2512 fluctuation range may be between 107.4 - 108.3 [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see for over - adjustment opportunities [2]. **Precious Metals** - **Trend**: Gold remains strong before the geopolitical conflict eases and the US policy situation becomes clear. Silver also maintains its strength due to slow overseas EFP conversion progress [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions in gold and set stop - loss and take - profit levels. Keep a long - buying idea for silver above 11000 yuan [2]. **Shipping Index (EC - European Line)** - **Trend**: The short - term trend is strong and fluctuating [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously go long [2]. **Steel** - **Trend**: Hot - rolled coils have accumulated a large amount of inventory, and attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery. The profit of the steel market is converging [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral positions should wait and see, and the month - spread should be short - sold at high prices. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is converging [2]. **Iron Ore** - **Trend**: Supply - side disturbances are weakening, and the market is turning weak [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Unilateral positions should wait and see, and the range is between 750 - 800. For arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Trend**: After the holiday, the coal price in the producing areas is weak, and the downstream replenishment demand is weakening. The first round of coke price increase was implemented before the holiday, but further increases are difficult [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long on coking coal 2601 at low prices, with a range of 1080 - 1200. Go long on coke 2601 at low prices, with a range of 1550 - 1700. For arbitrage, go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Trend**: Copper prices fluctuate, alumina cost support is loosening, aluminum and its alloys maintain high - level oscillations, zinc prices have limited support, tin prices are weak, nickel prices oscillate, and stainless steel demand is insufficient [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For copper, pay attention to the support at 84000 - 85000. For other metals, different operation suggestions are given according to their trends, such as waiting for buying opportunities for tin [2]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Trend**: Oil prices are under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and pessimistic IEA reports. Most chemical products are affected by supply - demand imbalances, such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given for each product, such as short - selling at high prices, holding short positions, and conducting arbitrage operations [2]. **Agricultural Products** - **Trend**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar, cotton, and eggs are weak [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given according to the trends of each product, such as holding 3 - 7 reverse spreads for live pigs [2]. **Special and New Energy Commodities** - **Trend**: Glass production and sales are average, rubber is affected by the peak production season, industrial silicon prices are weak, polysilicon prices are rising, and lithium carbonate maintains oscillations [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Different operation suggestions are given according to the trends of each product, such as holding long positions for polysilicon [2].

Report Summaries 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating suggests a range-bound market with a recommendation to wait and see [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current situation of the global oil and fat market, including spot and futures prices, inventory levels, and production and export data from major producers. It also highlights policy changes in Indonesia and the production progress of soybeans in Brazil and the United States [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On October 15, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 9420, 9260, and 9200 respectively, each down 80 from the previous day [1] - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: Prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu on October 15, 2025, were 8420, 8520, and 8590 respectively, each down 30 from the previous day [1] - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: Prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu on October 15, 2025, were 10150, 10190, and 10470 respectively, each down 30 from the previous day [1] Futures Data - **Bean - Palm Main Contract Spread**: On October 15, 2025, it was - 1070, up 20 from the previous day [1] - **Rapeseed - Bean Main Contract Spread**: On October 15, 2025, it was 1680, down 39 from the previous day [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: Palm oil warehouse receipts remained at 500; soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 850 to 26294; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained at 7590 [1] International Market Conditions - **India**: In September 2025, total vegetable oil imports were 1639743 tons, slightly down from August. Palm oil imports decreased significantly, while soybean oil and sunflower oil imports increased [2] - **Indonesia**: Plans to raise the crude palm oil (CPO) export tax from 10% to 15% to fund the transition from B40 to B50 biodiesel. B50 is in the final testing stage, with full - scale testing expected in Q2 2026 and official implementation in the second half of the same year [2] - **Malaysia**: In September 2025, palm oil production was 184.12 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.73% and a year - on - year increase of 1.06%. From October 1 - 10, 2025, production increased by 6.59% month - on - month. Exports from October 1 - 10 increased by 9.9% (ITS) and 19.4% (AmSpec) compared to the previous month [2] Domestic Market Conditions - **Soybean Production**: As of October 11, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 11.1%. As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the harvest rate was 19% [2]

Group 1 - A total of 34 stocks reached the daily limit up in the market today, with 11 stocks achieving consecutive limit ups, and 16 stocks failing to close at the limit, resulting in a limit-up rate of 68% [1] - Notable stocks include Huajian Group, a Shanghai microelectronics concept stock, which achieved 10 consecutive limit ups over 20 days [1] - The storage chip sector saw Anhui Chengjian with 5 limit ups over 9 days, and Sanfu Co., Ltd. with 2 consecutive limit ups [1] Group 2 - The palm oil price increase concept stock, Yuanda Holdings, achieved 3 consecutive limit ups [1] - Asia-Pacific Pharmaceutical, which underwent a change in actual controller, also recorded 3 consecutive limit ups [1] - Agricultural chemical stock, Xinong Co., Ltd., achieved 3 consecutive limit ups [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has shown signs of easing tensions, with the US dollar index falling and US stocks rising. The Fed is considering accelerating interest - rate cuts. Domestically, the economy shows weak recovery, with A - shares rebounding on low volume. In the short term, the stock market is expected to be volatile and weak, while in the long term, there is value in bargain - hunting. The bond market is slightly adjusted [2][3]. - Precious metals are supported by safe - haven sentiment, and their prices are expected to continue rising due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Fed's dovish remarks, and Sino - US trade tensions [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level due to increased macro - disturbances and a tight supply at the mine end [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and favorable pattern as inventory is likely to be reduced again [8]. - Alumina prices are under pressure in the short term due to high domestic production capacity and expected arrival of imported alumina [9]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to tense trade situations, weak downstream consumption, and a cooling export expectation [10]. - Lead prices face increasing pressure as LME inventories rise, domestic supply eases, and consumption shows limited improvement [11]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and show strong resilience due to limited improvement in the raw - material end and low LME inventories [12][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level due to a loose supply pattern and insufficient downstream demand [14][15]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate as there is a game between bulls and bears, with inventory pressure and uncertain technical signals [16][17]. - Steel and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to weak market sentiment, high supply pressure, and uncertain demand [18][19]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the repeated Sino - US game sentiment and other factors [20][21]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate widely due to trade uncertainties, changes in import and export volumes, and Indonesia's plan to increase export taxes [23][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US officials responded to China's expanded rare - earth export control, and the Fed's Milan called for accelerating interest - rate cuts. US stocks rose, the dollar index fell to 98.6, the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to 4.0%, gold prices exceeded $4200 per ounce, copper prices rose, and oil prices fell [2]. - Domestic: In September, CPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.3%, core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.3%. New social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed to the lowest point of the year. A - shares rebounded on low volume, and the bond market was slightly adjusted [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Wednesday, international precious - metal futures prices rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.48% to $4224.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.76% to $52.53 per ounce. Factors such as the extended US government shutdown, dovish remarks from the Fed, and Sino - US trade tensions supported the price increase. The market expects interest - rate cuts in October and December. It is expected that precious - metal prices will continue to rise [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper stopped falling and stabilized, and LME copper oscillated at night. The domestic near - month contract turned to a B structure, and the spot market trading improved. After the holiday, it entered a new restocking cycle. The LME inventory dropped to 138,000 tons. Due to macro - disturbances and a tight supply at the mine end, copper prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,910 yuan per ton, down 0.1%. After the holiday, the arrival of aluminum ingots was less, and restocking was active. It is expected that the inventory will be reduced again this week, and aluminum prices will maintain an oscillating and favorable pattern [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2797 yuan per ton, down 0.36%. Due to high domestic production capacity and expected arrival of imported alumina, alumina prices are under pressure in the short term [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and moved horizontally at night. Due to tense trade situations, weak downstream consumption, and a cooling export expectation, zinc prices are expected to oscillate weakly [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly during the day and horizontally at night. With the continuous increase in LME inventories, the easing of domestic supply, and limited improvement in consumption, lead prices face increasing pressure [11]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated narrowly during the day and its center of gravity moved down at night. Due to limited improvement in the raw - material end and low LME inventories, tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and show strong resilience [12][13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, industrial silicon oscillated strongly. Due to a loose supply pattern and insufficient downstream demand, industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [14][15]. 3.10 Carbonate Lithium - On Wednesday, carbonate - lithium prices oscillated weakly. There is a game between bulls and bears in the market, with inventory pressure and uncertain technical signals. Lithium prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. 3.11 Steel and Iron Ore - On Wednesday, steel futures were weak. Spot trading was at a low level, and terminal demand was weak. Supply pressure increased, and steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Iron - ore futures oscillated. The supply increased, and the demand had limited upward space. Iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate and adjust [18][19]. 3.12 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Wednesday, the bean - meal 01 contract rose 0.17% to 2917 yuan per ton, and the rapeseed - meal 01 contract fell 0.51% to 2357 yuan per ton. Due to the repeated Sino - US game sentiment, bean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. 3.13 Palm Oil - On Wednesday, the palm - oil 01 contract fell 0.47% to 9322 yuan per ton. India's palm - oil imports in September dropped to the lowest level since May, while Malaysia's palm - oil exports in the first half of October increased. Indonesia plans to increase the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Palm - oil prices are expected to oscillate widely [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures continue to rise, with current prices showing an increase of 0.45% from the previous day [1] Group 1: Soybean Oil Futures Market - On October 16, CBOT soybean oil futures opened at 50.81 cents per pound and are currently at 51.06 cents per pound, with a daily high of 51.11 cents and a low of 50.80 cents [1] - On October 15, the opening price for soybean oil was 51.36 cents, with a closing price of 50.81 cents, reflecting a change of 0.42% [1] Group 2: International Pricing and Trade Data - On October 15, Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) C&F price increased by $19 to $1165 per ton, while the January shipment price rose by $10 to $1152 per ton [1] - In September, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1,639,743 tons, a slight decrease from 1,677,346 tons in August, with soybean oil imports rising to 503,240 tons from 367,917 tons the previous month [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Activity - On October 15, the national first-class soybean oil transaction volume was 3,000 tons, representing a decrease of 85% compared to the previous trading day [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The overall sentiment in the A - share market is mixed. The stock index shows a pattern of first decline and then rebound in the short - term, with the medium - to - long - term upward trend remaining unchanged. The bond market is affected by the stock market and economic data, showing a pattern of wide - range fluctuations [2][4][7]. - Precious metals are expected to maintain a strong trend due to concerns about the US economic outlook and geopolitical conflicts. The price of silver is also expected to remain strong, but the domestic silver price may lag behind the international market [8][9][10]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile pattern in the short - term [12][13]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, the price of copper is expected to fluctuate, alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, aluminum is expected to be highly volatile, zinc is expected to fluctuate, tin is expected to be highly volatile, nickel is expected to be range - bound, stainless steel is expected to be weakly volatile, and lithium carbonate is expected to be in a consolidation phase [18][23][26][31][37][40][44]. - In the black metal sector, the steel market needs to observe the recovery of post - holiday demand, iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile, coking coal is recommended for short - term long positions, and coke is recommended for speculative long positions [45][47][52][55]. - In the agricultural product sector, soybean meal prices are expected to be under pressure, and pig prices are expected to face supply pressure in the medium - to - long - term [56][58][60]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded with reduced trading volume. The export - related sectors recovered. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis spread of the main contracts showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The Sino - US trade friction is in a stage of mutual exploration. The stock index is expected to decline first and then rebound in the short - term, with the medium - to - long - term upward trend remaining unchanged [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The treasury bond futures mostly closed down after wide - range fluctuations. The bond market was affected by the strong performance of the stock market and was less sensitive to economic data. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [5][7]. Precious Metals - The US economic activity is affected by tariffs and government shutdowns. The US dollar is weakening, and precious metals continue to be strong. Gold prices reached a new high, and silver prices rose more significantly. In the future, precious metals are expected to maintain a bull market, and it is recommended to hold long positions with stop - loss and take - profit measures [8][9][10]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot freight rates of shipping to Europe vary among different shipping companies. The shipping index shows a mixed trend. The supply of global container capacity has increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US shows different situations. The futures market showed an upward trend on the previous day, and it is expected to be moderately strong and volatile in the short - term [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot trading is average, and the price fluctuates. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the production of refined copper may decline. The demand has strong resilience, but the high price suppresses demand. The inventory shows a pattern of de - stocking in LME and stocking in domestic and COMEX. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract is recommended to focus on the support level of 84000 - 85000 [14][16][18]. - **Alumina**: The cost support is weakening, and the price is exploring the bottom. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The inventory shows a mixed trend. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2750 - 2950 [18][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The price has slightly declined from the high level, and the spot premium has rebounded. The supply shows a structural tightness, and the demand is differentiated. The inventory is at a relatively low level. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and the main contract is recommended to operate between 20700 - 21300 [21][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is maintaining a high - level volatility. The cost support is strong, but the inventory pressure is increasing. The supply and demand are in a state of game. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and the main contract is recommended to operate between 20200 - 20800 [24][26]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental factors have limited support for the price, and the price fluctuates. The supply is in a state of loose - to - tight transition, and the demand has no significant improvement. The inventory is increasing. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract is recommended to operate between 21500 - 22500 [27][30][31]. - **Tin**: The strong fundamentals support the high - level volatility of the price. The supply of tin mines is tight, and the demand shows a structural differentiation. The inventory shows a mixed trend. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment declines [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The price is maintaining a range - bound pattern. The macro - expectations are changing, and the supply of nickel mines has some positive factors. The demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be range - bound, and the main contract is recommended to operate between 120000 - 126000 [34][36][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot trading is cautious, and the demand is insufficient. The raw material prices are firm, but the downstream demand has not been effectively realized. The inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and the main contract is recommended to operate between 12400 - 12800 [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is maintaining a consolidation phase. The supply is increasing, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in a consolidation phase, and the main contract is recommended to have a price center between 70000 - 75000 [42][43][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price is weakly declining. The cost and profit situation is changing, and the supply and demand show different trends. The inventory is increasing. It is necessary to observe the recovery of post - holiday demand, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading [45][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - side disturbances are weakening, and the demand is weakening. The inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore [47][48][49]. - **Coking Coal**: The post - holiday coal price has rebounded, and the downstream replenishment demand has increased. The supply of Mongolian coal may decrease. The price is expected to rise in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract in the short - term and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [50][52]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the holiday, and it is difficult to have a second - round increase. The supply is affected by the cost, and the demand is weak. The inventory shows a mixed trend. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract speculatively and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [53][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean price is under pressure. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter, and the price of soybean meal is expected to be weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the uncertainty of soybean arrivals and consider the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [56][58]. - **Pigs**: The pig price has rebounded due to the entry of secondary fattening. However, the supply pressure will continue to be released in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to go short on the futures and hold the LH1 - 5 and LH3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [59][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic inflation shows a divergent trend, with CPI falling and PPI rising, indicating a marginal improvement in the domestic price situation. However, the credit demand of the private sector remains weak, and attention should be paid to the possible slowdown of deposit transfer [1][16]. - The labor market in the United States is weakening due to government job cuts during the shutdown, leading to a downward trend in the US dollar index [2][21]. - The trade situation is generally neutral to positive for the bond market. Long positions can be held, but chasing long positions requires caution as the factors driving the bond market to strengthen significantly have not yet emerged [3][30]. - The NOPA September soybean crushing report is better than expected, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has changed little [4]. - The nickel ore price is strong, and there are disturbances in supply. The API US crude oil inventory has increased significantly, and the oil price is weak [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed's Beige Book shows that labor demand has generally weakened, and overall economic activity has changed little. The US government continues to be shut down, which supports the gold price. However, after the silver squeeze ends, precious metals may face a downward risk [12][13]. - Investment advice: Short - term gold price fluctuations are expected to increase, and it is not recommended to chase long positions [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In September, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and the social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year. The CPI decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 2.3% year - on - year [14][16]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump has authorized the CIA to conduct operations in Venezuela. The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has changed little, and employment has remained stable. The Trump administration may cut more than 10,000 federal government jobs, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index [19][20][21]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will weaken in the short term [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has changed little, and tariffs have pushed up prices. The selection of the Fed chairman is in a critical stage, and Fed official Milan expects two more interest rate cuts this year [23][24][25]. - Investment advice: The threat of tariffs has not been completely eliminated. In the short term, pay attention to the negotiation progress and look for opportunities to enter the market at low prices [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The September financial data is basically in line with expectations. The central bank conducted a net injection of 435 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. The trade situation is generally neutral to positive for the bond market, and long positions can be held, but chasing long positions requires caution [28][30]. - Investment advice: Long positions can continue to be held, and chasing long positions requires caution. After the new regulations on fund fees are implemented, there will be opportunities to lay out long positions at low prices [30]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The port coke spot market is oscillating. After the holiday, the coking coal futures price has rebounded, but the spot price is weak. The supply in the production area is gradually recovering, and the customs clearance at the Mongolian border port has returned to normal [31][32]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the fundamentals of coking coal are weak, and attention should be paid to subsequent demand [33]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The NOPA September soybean crushing report is better than expected, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has changed little [34]. - Investment advice: The prices of domestic and foreign futures will temporarily remain oscillating. Continue to pay attention to Sino - US relations and the weather in the Brazilian production area [35]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From October 1 - 15, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil increased by 16.17% month - on - month. The oil market continued to oscillate yesterday [36]. - Investment advice: In the future, there is still no obvious driving force for the oil market. At the current price, consider laying out long positions at low prices [37]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Due to continuous rainfall, the opening time of the first sugar factory in Yunnan is slightly delayed. The impact of floods in the main sugar - producing states in India needs to be evaluated, and institutions are cautious about the output. The cumulative sugarcane yield in central and southern Brazil from April to September decreased by 6.5% year - on - year [38][40][41]. - Investment advice: Affected by the weak external market, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price is hovering around 5400 yuan. Considering the reduction of import pressure in the fourth quarter and the possible increase in production costs in the new season, the downside space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, and it is not recommended to chase short positions [42]. 3.2.5 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Hebei Province may not reduce or reduce the proportion of crude steel production for leading steel enterprises. The average working hours and start - up rate of construction machinery in September decreased year - on - year. From October 1 - 12, the retail and wholesale volume of passenger cars showed different trends [43][44][46]. - Investment advice: In the short term, treat the steel price with a weak - oscillation mindset, go short lightly on rebounds, or wait for the steel price to fall [47]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The start - up rate of corn starch enterprises has increased significantly, and the inventory has accumulated slightly [48]. - Investment advice: Continue to look at narrowing the spot corn - starch price difference in the long - term. If the deterioration of the actual fundamentals is slow, the futures corn - starch price difference of the 11 - contract may still have room for upward repair [48]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The price of red dates in the Guangzhou Ruyifang market is temporarily stable. The red dates in the Xinjiang production area are in the drying period and have not been harvested. The spot prices in the north - south distribution areas are stable, and downstream customers purchase as needed [49][50]. - Investment advice: At present, the purchase price in the production area is not representative, and it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the price game and purchase progress in the production area [50]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The domestic corn price is running weakly and steadily. The 11 - contract of corn futures has rebounded to be basically at par with the FOB price at the northern port. The spot selling pressure will continue to be released, and the futures price is expected to be stronger than the spot price [51]. - Investment advice: Hold the previous short positions and wait and see, but closely monitor market sentiment. It is not recommended to enter long positions for a rebound too early [52]. 3.2.9 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The international steam coal price is firm on October 15. After the National Day holiday, the coal price in coastal areas has risen significantly. With the approaching cold wave in the north, the coal price is expected to remain strong before mid - November [53]. - Investment advice: With the approaching cold wave in the north, the coal price is expected to remain strong before mid - November [53]. 3.2.10 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - A Ukrainian mining group has restarted two new mines. The finished steel price has been falling due to inventory accumulation, and the black metal market is weak. However, the raw material prices remain relatively strong in the short term as steel mills have not reduced production. It is expected that iron production may be reduced in November [54]. - Investment advice: It is expected that iron production will remain at 2.4 million tons in October and may be reduced in November. The raw material market is weak, and when the downward trend will start needs further observation [55]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On October 14, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.48 per ton. The Shanghai lead price oscillated upward yesterday, mainly driven by the rebound of the external market. The LME inventory increased, and the domestic social inventory decreased. The Shanghai lead price may oscillate upward in the short term [56]. - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, take profit on previous long positions in a timely manner. For arbitrage, pay attention to positive spreads for the month - spread and short - term internal - external reverse spreads [56]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On October 14, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $87.22 per ton. The industrial metal market was weak yesterday, and the zinc price declined. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic export window closed. The zinc price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention can be paid to medium - term positive spreads and internal - external positive spreads [57][58]. - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, pay attention to medium - term positive spreads and maintain a positive - spread mindset for internal - external trading, and take profit on positive - spread positions in batches at low prices [58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The spot price of polysilicon from first - tier manufacturers remains at 55 yuan/kg, and that from second - and third - tier manufacturers is 52 - 53 yuan/kg. The production of polysilicon in October is expected to increase. The demand for battery cells still has support in October. The component price may rise, but the terminal demand may decline [60][61]. - Investment advice: The progress of platform companies is slower than expected, but it may be too early to say they have failed. It is expected that the spot price will not fall in October. Consider going long lightly on the PS2512 contract when it is at a discount to the spot. Pay attention to the reverse - spread opportunity between PS2511 and PS2512 at around - 2000 yuan/ton [62][63]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicon coal in some areas has decreased. The start - up rate of industrial silicon plants in the north has increased, while that in the south may decrease in late October. The social inventory of industrial silicon has increased slightly. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a state of weak balance [64]. - Investment advice: Although industrial silicon has seasonal inventory accumulation and depletion, the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. It is more likely to have a higher winning rate to go long at low prices, but chasing long positions requires caution [65]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - DKFT's nickel ore production in the third quarter of 2025 reached 2.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The nickel ore price is expected to rise in the fourth quarter, and the cost of smelting is increasing. The refined nickel inventory may accumulate in the fourth quarter, but the downside space of the nickel price is limited [66][67]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions at low prices after the macro - risk stabilizes [67][68]. 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Aurubis is in consultation with the US on a new copper smelter. Tongling Nonferrous Metals plans to upgrade and expand its copper anode slime treatment system. The La Granja copper project in Peru is advancing. The copper price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term and may rise after the macro - uncertainty decreases [69][70][71][72]. - Investment advice: For unilateral trading, go long at low prices. For arbitrage, wait and see [72]. 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia is considering formulating a reserve price for key minerals and providing funds for new rare - earth projects. CATL and JD Group have signed a strategic cooperation agreement. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory is decreasing, but the supply is expected to increase in the future, and the demand may decline at the end of the year [73][75]. - Investment advice: The lithium price will oscillate narrowly in the short term. It is recommended to go short at high prices and pay attention to the reverse - spread opportunity between LC2511 and 2512 [75]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - EU secondary sanctions against Russia affect domestic refineries. Taicang Port charges a special port fee of 400 yuan/ton for US - controlled or - operated ships. The market is in a period of high uncertainty [76][77]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [78]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API US crude oil inventory has increased significantly, and the oil price is weak [5][79]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain weak and oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical conflicts [80]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene in the East China main port has decreased slightly. The non - integrated load of styrene has decreased, and the demand has resilience. However, the inventory level is still high compared with the historical average, and the upward driving force of styrene is limited [81][82]. - Investment advice: The driving force of the pure - benzene - styrene industrial chain is weak, and it will be under pressure before the oil end provides support [83]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol port inventory has decreased slightly. The decrease in inventory is mainly due to the suppression of imports caused by factors such as port policies. The market expects that the issues related to Iranian goods and US ships can be resolved, but the import cost will increase [84][85]. - Investment advice: Wait and see as the probability of the futures price falling further in the short term is low [86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is flexibly adjusted. The supply has decreased due to equipment maintenance and power - related issues, and the demand has changed little. The price shows a differentiated trend [87][88]. - Investment advice: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is weakening, and it is necessary to be cautious when bottom - fishing [88]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price has rebounded. The domestic PX start - up rate is stable, and the supply has no major unexpected fluctuations. The PX price will follow the oil price and oscillate weakly in the short term [89][90]. - Investment advice: The PX price will oscillate weakly in the short term [91]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price is fluctuating within a narrow range. The supply pressure is increasing due to new capacity release, and the demand is pessimistic due to Indian anti - dumping. The PVC price is expected to remain weakly oscillating in the short term [92][93]. - Investment advice: The PVC fundamentals are weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to remain weakly oscillating, and the downside space is limited [93]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is mainly stable, with individual prices slightly increasing. The futures price of pulp is oscillating. The supply and demand of pulp are not good, and the upward space of the futures price is limited [94]. - Investment advice: The pulp futures price is relatively strong recently, but considering the poor supply - demand situation, the upward space is limited [95]. 3.2.26 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price has decreased, and the spot basis is weak. The downstream polyester inventory is healthy, and the short - term probability of significant production reduction is low. The supply - demand contradiction of PTA is not large, and the short - term driving force is insufficient. The oil price is the main source of price fluctuations [96]. - Investment advice: The PTA price will oscillate weakly in the short term [97]. 3.2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories continues to decrease. The polyester raw material price has fallen, and the bottle - chip factories have lowered their quotations. The supply - demand contradiction of bottle chips is not prominent at present, but it may accumulate in the fourth quarter [98][99]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to when the factories will resume production. The supply