有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/05 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/28 150 554 98671 34861 -796.53 232.23 89.0 106.0 44.97 154300 71175 2025/05/29 145 564 98671 32165 -810.64 212.82 89.0 105.0 51.57 152375 74450 2025/05/30 175 665 105791 34128 -778.22 155.91 86.0 100.0 50.08 149875 74850 2025/06/03 215 1019 105791 31404 -652.82 409.92 85.0 100.0 52.31 143850 74375 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 变化 -8 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper was oscillating strongly, up 0.11% to $9,649/ton, while SHFE copper主力 declined 0.08% to 78,140 yuan/ton. The domestic spot import window remained closed. US economic data was weak, and the probability of a June interest rate cut was low. LME copper inventory decreased, while Comex and SHFE copper inventories increased. Due to the off - season and high prices, downstream procurement was cautious. The weak dollar and potential US tariffs on copper provided some support. The copper price was facing a directional choice, and if it effectively broke through the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton resistance range, it might rise further [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina and Shanghai aluminum were oscillating strongly. Alumina supply and demand both increased, and the cost of the ore end provided short - term support. Electrolytic aluminum demand had structural resilience, and the increase in US import aluminum tariffs supported the aluminum price [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.94%, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.29%. Nickel ore prices were stable. The stainless - steel industry chain had weak demand, and the supply side had production cuts. The new energy sector had weak supply and demand. The market was mainly in a short - term oscillating state, lacking new driving factors [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzed price trends, macro - economic data, inventory changes, demand situations, and factors affecting prices, and gave price resistance range [1]. - **Aluminum**: Analyzed price trends, supply - demand relationships of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and factors supporting the price [2]. - **Nickel**: Analyzed price trends, inventory changes, and the supply - demand situation of the stainless - steel and new energy industries, and judged the market state [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Provided price, inventory, and other data of copper in different markets and time points, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [3]. - **Aluminum**: Presented price, inventory, and other data of aluminum, such as changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [4]. - **Nickel**: Offered price, inventory, and other data of nickel, including changes in electrolytic nickel, nickel iron, and nickel ore prices, and inventory levels [4]. - **Zinc**: Showed price, inventory, and other data of zinc, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [5]. - **Tin**: Displayed price, inventory, and other data of tin, including changes in spot prices, inventory levels, and import - export profits and losses [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Spot Premium**: Included charts of spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][11]. - **3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Contained charts of SHFE near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [12][15][18]. - **3.3 LME Inventory**: Had charts of LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - **3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Included charts of SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **3.5 Social Inventory**: Contained charts of social inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **3.6 Smelting Profit**: Included charts of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][45]. 4. Team Introduction - Introduced the members of the non - ferrous metals team, including their educational backgrounds, positions, research directions, professional qualifications, and achievements [48][49][50].

Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Core Views - The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, but the overseas trade situation remains volatile. The upward stimulus to US copper prices from the increase in US aluminum tariffs lacks long - term emotional support. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the marginal stability of processing fees and the widening of the refined - scrap spread have alleviated supply concerns. With weakening consumer resilience, the resistance to copper price increases has grown [1]. - The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, leading to a rebound in aluminum prices. Low inventory levels support aluminum prices, but the increase in US aluminum tariffs has pressured demand expectations, and short - term aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly [3]. - The demand for lead ingots is weak, while primary lead production is rising. The开工 rate of secondary lead enterprises is declining, and if secondary lead production cuts lead to greater scrap price drops, it may deepen the downside space for lead prices [4]. - The processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising, and the expectation of zinc ore oversupply persists. With increasing zinc ingot production and weak terminal consumption, zinc prices face significant downward risks [6]. - The slow resumption of production in Myanmar and concerns about tin ore supply have led to a sharp rebound in tin prices. However, the supply release trend is inevitable, and with no significant increase in demand, the rebound space for tin prices is limited [7]. - Macro uncertainties are high for nickel. Although the short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, they remain bearish overall. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed substantially, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the commodity market sentiment, changes in positions, and supply disruptions [10]. - The alumina market has continuous ore - end disturbances, but the over - capacity situation persists. It is recommended to short at high prices lightly, with the ore price being the core factor [13]. - The cost of stainless steel has strong support, but the market is in a supply - surplus situation, and trade - based price support is weak [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 0.11% at $9649/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78140 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 77500 - 78600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9550 - 9700 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2500 to 141350 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 3.2 million tons [1]. - Premium: The domestic copper spot import loss widened to about 1000 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 0.67% at $2487/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20110 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 19900 - 20200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2450 - 2510 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: The three - location aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons to 39.1 million tons, and the two - location aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 8.0 million tons. SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 4.9 million tons [3]. - Premium: The spot premium in East China decreased to 100 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.59% at 16665 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 19 to $1988.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased to 4.49 million tons, and SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 4.17 million tons [4]. - Premium: The refined - scrap spread was - 25 yuan/ton, and the lead ingot import loss was - 887.96 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 1.21% at 22331 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 49.5 to $2722.5/ton [6]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 7.74 million tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.14 million tons [6]. - Premium: The Shanghai basis was 510 yuan/ton, and the zinc ingot import loss was - 491.89 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - Price: Tin prices rebounded significantly. The expected operating range for domestic SHFE tin this week is 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is 28000 - 31000 dollars/ton [7][8]. - Reason: Slow resumption of production in Myanmar and concerns about tin ore supply [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices fluctuated. The short - term expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. - Supply and demand: Refined nickel production is at a historical high, while stainless steel demand is weak, and downstream acceptance of high - priced nickel is limited [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index was flat at 60537 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed up 1.90% at 61080 yuan. The expected operating range for the LC2507 contract is 59700 - 62100 yuan/ton [10]. - Market: The short - term fundamentals have not changed substantially, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.11% to 3055 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton [12][13]. - Inventory: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.96 to 10.24 million tons [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices lightly, with the ore price as the core factor [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12720 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The Foshan market's Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price was 12950 yuan/ton, and the Wuxi market's Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price was 13100 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: Futures inventory decreased by 5299 to 124391 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.61% to 109.96 million tons [15]. - Market: The cost has strong support, but the market is in a supply - surplus situation, and trade - based price support is weak [15].

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 4 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约上涨 0.53%至 78200 元/吨。节 日期间美关税影响再起，金融市场再现动荡，短期将对铜价增添不利的 情绪影响。上游进口铜精矿市场整体交投氛围清淡，现货市场 TC 价格持 稳-43 左右，冶炼厂对加工费的接受度已达极限，后续继续下行阻力较 大。卡库拉矿山地震虽未影响近期发运，但节后若持续停产减少发运或 带来供应冲击。下游节前备货需求较为一般，新增订单有限，但炼厂发 货较少，节前库存再度表现下降，但去库幅度较小。节后，考虑节假期 间市场到货量预计有所增加，下游消费逐渐由旺转淡，近月高 BACK 月 差结构以及关税不利情绪影响再起，铜价上行空间将受到限制。但基于 目前库存仍维持低位，供应端扰动仍存，下跌空间同样有限。沪铜近期 或仍维持震荡格局。关注近月合约持仓状况。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 4 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 0.68%至 20075 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，后续关注是否有复产 可能。几内亚矿端扰动尚未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击， 其影响要等到 7 月份才能体现 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai United Securities has issued a verification opinion on the detailed equity change report of Yunnan Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., Ltd, confirming the authenticity, accuracy, and completeness of the disclosed information regarding the equity transfer [2][7][8]. Summary by Sections Equity Change Overview - The equity change involves the transfer of 72,427,600 shares from Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., Ltd to Qujing Development Investment Group Co., Ltd, representing 22.3960% of the total shares of the listed company [6][17]. Purpose of the Equity Change - The purpose of the equity change is for Qujing Development Investment Group to gain control of the listed company and improve its operational status by leveraging its advantages in industrial planning and investment management [8][9]. Financial Status of the Acquirer - Qujing Development Investment Group has total assets of approximately 4.26 billion yuan, total liabilities of about 1.73 billion yuan, and net profit of 11.07 million yuan for the most recent fiscal year [11][12]. Funding Sources - The funding for the acquisition will come from the acquirer's own and self-raised funds, with plans to apply for acquisition loans from banks [12][14]. Regulatory Compliance - The equity transfer has received necessary approvals from relevant regulatory bodies, including the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [18][28]. Impact on Company Control - Following the equity change, the controlling shareholder will shift from Luoping Zinc & Electricity Co., Ltd to Qujing Development Investment Group, with the actual controller being the Qujing State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [17][18]. Future Plans - The acquirer has no immediate plans to change the main business operations of the listed company or to make significant adjustments to its management structure within the next 12 months [19][20]. Commitments to Independence - The acquirer has committed to maintaining the independence of the listed company in terms of personnel, assets, finance, and operations, ensuring no conflicts of interest arise [22][23]. Agreement Details - The share transfer agreement stipulates that the acquirer will pay a total of approximately 468.68 million yuan for the shares, with a payment structure involving an initial deposit and subsequent payments upon meeting certain conditions [26][27].

Group 1: Copper - The LME cash - 3M spread widened due to the large - scale extraction of Russian copper from LME warehouses and its entry into the Chinese market, and high spot premiums in Southeast Asia. Domestic cross - month spreads and spot premiums remained stable, with weakening export demand and potential weakening downstream demand and orders. The supply disruption at Kamora Copper Mine may last until the fourth quarter, negatively affecting Ivanhoe's annual production guidance. The domestic refined copper balance may shift from tight to neutral, and rising inventory may suppress absolute prices [1]. Group 2: Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, with large imports of aluminum ingots from January to April. Demand from May to June is not expected to decline significantly, with stable aluminum product exports and a slight decline in photovoltaic demand. There is still a supply - demand gap. Inventory is expected to decline gradually from May to July. The fundamentals are acceptable, and attention should be paid to demand. Long - short spreads can be held if the absolute price drops [1]. Group 3: Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week, briefly surging due to rumors of extended maintenance at a southern smelter. Domestic TC rose to 3,600 yuan/ton, and smelting output is expected to increase by 25,000 tons in June compared to May. Domestic demand has limited elasticity, with slow - falling spot premiums and weak orders in North China, while exports in East and South China are stable. Overseas spot premiums are recovering, and European demand is slightly improving. Domestic social inventory is accumulating slowly, and the inflection point of accelerated accumulation is expected to occur in early June. LME inventory is slightly declining. Attention should be paid to the transition from inventory drawdown to accumulation, and short positions are recommended to be held. Partial profit - taking can be considered for long - short spreads due to potential Trump tariff interference [2]. Group 4: Nickel - On the supply side, pure nickel production remains high, and Russian nickel imports increased in April. Demand is weak overall, and Jinchuan's premium strengthened slightly after the price decline. Overseas nickel plate inventory is slightly increasing, and domestic inventory is stable. The macro - impact is weakening, and the short - term fundamentals are average. Opportunities to narrow the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can continue to be monitored [3]. Group 5: Stainless Steel - In terms of supply, production increased seasonally in April, and some steel mills cut production passively in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of nickel and chrome iron are stable. Inventory in Xijiao and Foshan is slightly decreasing, and exchange warehouse receipts are partially expiring. The fundamentals are generally weak, and short - term fluctuations are expected [3]. Group 6: Lead - Lead prices oscillated downward this week. On the supply side, scrap volume is weak year - on - year, recyclers are panic - selling, and mid - stream secondary smelters have concentrated production capacity, but operate at half capacity due to tight scrap battery supply. Downstream demand is weak, with about 50% capacity utilization. Concentrate supply is abundant from April to May. On the demand side, battery inventory is high, and overall demand is weak, but there is a motivation for replenishment this week. The refined - scrap price difference is +75, and secondary lead prices are strongly supported. LME inventory has concentrated deliveries. The old - for - new policy continues, but overall consumption is weak in the off - season from April. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,400 - 16,700 next week, and supply is expected to decline in May [5]. Group 7: Tin - Tin prices declined this week due to weak commodity sentiment and energy prices. On the supply side, the short - term复产 in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation, processing fees are low, and smelting profits are inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi have cut production, and those in Yunnan are struggling. Overseas supply disruptions have basically subsided. On the demand side, solder demand has limited elasticity, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to slow. Domestic downstream actively replenished inventory after the price drop, and overseas consumption continues to be strong with low - level inventory fluctuations. Small - brand tin ingots are still in short supply, and exchange inventory is mainly high - priced Yunzi brand, with weak downstream提货意愿. In the short term, supply disruptions and weakening demand coexist, and the first half of the year is expected to see weak supply and demand. June may be a key period to verify the transmission from tight ore to tight ingot supply. Short - term observation is recommended, and medium - term short - selling opportunities can be monitored [7]. Group 8: Industrial Silicon - Some northern large - scale plants resumed production this week, Sichuan Tongwei continued to increase production, and new production capacities of Yunnan Yongchang and Xin'an Silicon Materials are gradually coming online. Market overall operating rate increased slightly, and some small plants in Sichuan plan to resume production in June during the wet season. Organic silicon plants that previously cut production increased their operating rates, slightly boosting the demand for industrial silicon. Inventory is at a high level, with sufficient warehouse receipts and non - standard goods, and high spot pressure. In the short term, both supply and demand are decreasing, and the rigid demand from polysilicon and organic silicon is weak. Speculative demand in downstream and mid - stream sectors is limited. Currently, the overall supply and demand of industrial silicon reach a tight balance after upstream large - scale plants reduce their operating rates. However, with the commissioning of new production capacities and small - scale resumption of small plants in the wet season, future supply has significant potential pressure. In the long - term, industrial silicon prices are expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow costs of leading large - scale plants [10]. Group 9: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices declined this week. Downstream buyers prefer new or discounted goods, and the basis of new goods is decreasing. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell and try to support prices, while traders have difficulty selling. Tianqi and Yahua resumed production, small recycling plants cut production more severely, some self - owned mines rely on hedging to maintain profits and production, and Jiangxi Chunpeng plans maintenance. The inventory accumulation speed slowed this week, and downstream only maintains a safety inventory. Low prices reduce the registration of new goods in warehouse receipts, and production in June is expected to decrease slightly. In the long - term, there are many lithium mine and lithium salt capacity expansion projects. If the operating rates of leading mine - smelting integrated enterprises do not significantly decline, lithium carbonate prices will continue to oscillate weakly. In the short term, downstream demand is weak, and policies to stimulate demand are less effective than expected. Lithium ore prices are declining, and lithium prices lack support. Downstream buyers replenish inventory cautiously at low prices. Smelters using externally - sourced ores are all in losses and cut production. The price has reached the cost line of some self - owned mines, which rely on hedging to maintain profits. Cathode production is less motivated due to losses, and high - cost production capacities may be cleared. Future supply has high elasticity, and there may be more news of production cuts and shutdowns next week, with prices expected to decline after oscillations [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, up 0.24% to $9,638.5/ton; SHFE copper main contract rose 0.5% to 78,180 yuan/ton. The US April JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased, easing market concerns about the economy and job market. The Fed may maintain a hawkish stance, and the probability of a rate cut in June is low. LME copper inventory decreased by 4,600 tons to 143,850 tons, while the domestic mainstream copper inventory increased by 14,300 tons to 153,000 tons. With the arrival of the off - season and the end of the phased export rush, downstream and terminal procurement is cautious. The US tariff policy and the 232 investigation may support copper prices. The current copper price is at a directional crossroads, and if it breaks through the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton resistance range, it may rise further [1]. - **Aluminum**: After the holiday, alumina and Shanghai aluminum both trended stronger. AO2509 closed at 3,036 yuan/ton, up 1.27%, and AL2507 closed at 19,990 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The SMM alumina price slightly declined to 3,275 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot premium widened to 110 yuan/ton. Alumina supply and demand both increased, and the ore cost provided short - term support. The electrolytic aluminum demand has both off - season pressure and structural resilience. The price is supported by the low - level destocking at the beginning of the month, and the overall operating center may decline slightly with the cost. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.23% to $15,475/ton, while Shanghai nickel rose 0.25% to 121,860 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,152 tons to 201,462 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 19 tons to 22,038 tons. The nickel ore price was stable. In the stainless - steel industry chain, the raw material nickel - iron trading was sluggish, and the cost still provided support. The supply at home and abroad decreased, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased. However, the overall demand was weak. In the new - energy sector, the supply and demand of nickel sulfate were both weak. Short - term nickel price may rebound after a rapid decline, but it is still in a volatile state and needs new driving factors to rise further [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Analyzed from macro, inventory, demand, and policy aspects, pointed out the factors affecting copper prices and the current price trend and resistance range [1]. - **Aluminum**: Analyzed the price, inventory, and supply - demand situation of alumina and electrolytic aluminum, and suggested paying attention to inventory [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Analyzed the price, inventory, and supply - demand situation in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors, and judged the short - term price trend [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Provided price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, including market prices, inventory changes in different exchanges, and import and export indicators [3]. - **Lead**: Presented price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, such as market prices, lead - concentrate prices, and inventory changes [3]. - **Aluminum**: Showed price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, including market prices, raw - material prices, and inventory changes [4]. - **Nickel**: Offered price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, covering market prices, nickel - ore prices, and inventory changes [4]. - **Zinc**: Provided price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, including market prices, TC prices, and inventory changes [5]. - **Tin**: Presented price, inventory, and other data from May 28 - 29, 2025, such as market prices, tin - concentrate prices, and inventory changes [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Included charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin spot premiums from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12] - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Contained charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin SHFE near - far month spreads from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21] - **LME Inventory**: Included charts of LME copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27] - **SHFE Inventory**: Contained charts of SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33] - **Social Inventory**: Included charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series stainless - steel social inventories from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39] - **Smelting Profit**: Contained charts of copper - concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46] 3.4 Team Introduction - **Exhibition Dapeng**: Holds a science master's degree, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won many industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [49]. - **Wang Heng**: Holds a finance master's degree from the University of Adelaide, Australia, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [49]. - **Zhu Xi**: Holds a science master's degree from the University of Warwick, UK, and is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [50].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年6月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒5月21日消息:世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据报 告显示, 2025年3月，全球锌板产量为108.74万吨,消费量为113.35万吨， 供应短缺4.6万吨。1-3月,全球锌板产量为328.31万吨,消费量为338.48万 吨,供应短缺10.16万吨。3月,全球锌矿产量为100.78万吨。1-3月，全球锌 矿产量为296.11万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22890，基差+710；偏多。 3、库存：6月3日LME锌库存较上日减少800吨至137350吨，6月3日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少0吨至1675吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,20日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity atmosphere has improved, but the overseas trade situation is volatile. Different metals show different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices may face resistance in rising, aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, zinc prices have a large downward risk, and tin prices may see a downward shift in the center of gravity [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to Different Metals Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper rose 0.24% to $9638/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,180 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper main contract is 77,500 - 78,800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9500 - 9700/ton [1]. - **Industry Situation**: LME inventory decreased by 4600 tons to 143,850 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio increasing to 51.7%. During the Dragon Boat Festival, domestic social inventory increased by over 10,000 tons. The SHFE copper warrant decreased by 0.3 to 31,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, while in Guangdong, the spot changed from premium to discount. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained around 800 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1330 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum fell 0.1% to $2470/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 19,990 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 19,850 - 20,150 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2440 - 2500/ton [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 0.8 to 523,000 lots, and the futures warrant slightly decreased to 51,000 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.8 to 519,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in the mainstream areas decreased slightly. The spot in East China remained at a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 to 368,000 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio declined to 12.5% [3]. Lead - **Price Movement**: SHFE lead index rose 99.74% to 16,568 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S rose to $1969.5/ton [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic social inventory increased to 44,900 tons. The demand for lead ingots is weak, the production of primary lead is increasing, while the production of recycled lead is decreasing due to factors such as limited raw material inventory and high finished - product inventory [4]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: SHFE zinc index fell 0.24% to 22,065 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose to $2673/ton. Zinc prices still have a large downward risk [5]. - **Industry Situation**: The zinc concentrate processing fee increased again, and it is expected that the domestic refined zinc production in June 2025 will be 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons or 7.43%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.13%. The terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory of zinc ingots is accumulating [5]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract this week is 230,000 - 260,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $28,000 - 31,000/ton. The tin price center may shift downward [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The mine restart is progressing. The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) started phased restart in late April, and the first batch of tin concentrates has entered the logistics. The Wa State tin mine restart was approved in late April, and actual production is expected to resume from July to August. The smelting end has a low operating rate due to raw material shortage. The downstream demand has not increased significantly, but there is some demand for replenishment at low prices [6][7]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - **Industry Situation**: The refined nickel production is at a historical high. The stainless - steel market is mediocre, and the downstream acceptance of high - price nickel is limited. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore is stable, the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical ore is difficult to rise due to demand, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore is stable after a decline [8]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index closed at 60,537 yuan, a decrease of 0.33%. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2507 contract is 59,200 - 61,200 yuan/ton. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index rose 1.18% to 2992 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short lightly at high prices [11][12]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some regions increased. The import window is open. The futures inventory decreased. The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [11][12]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The cost support is high, but under the pattern of oversupply, the market is pessimistic [14]. - **Industry Situation**: The spot prices in some markets remained stable. The raw - material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased to 1.1177 million tons, with a 0.85% month - on - month increase. The 300 - series inventory decreased by 3.42% [14].

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.03 关税博弈拉长，淡季压力渐显 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 ——有色及贵金属周报 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [table_Authors] 于嘉懿(分析师) | 兰洋(研究助理) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880522080001 | S0880123070158 | 本报告导读： 特朗普关税政策遭遇美国司法挑战，后续关税以其他形式出台的不确定性增加，美 国国内外对关税的博弈时间将被拉长，或导致金价波动加剧。国内而言，下游淡季 需求压力逐步显现，工业品短期或有所承压。 投资要点： 行 业 跟 踪 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 报 告 [Table_subIndustry] 白银：金融与商品属性影响下，白银价格波动或更大。①价格：5 月 30 日当周 SHFE 白银跌 0.27%至 8218 元/千克，COMEX 银跌 1.59%至 33.08 美元/盎司， 伦敦银现跌 1.51%至 32 ...