Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is cautious, and the black commodity market shows a weak and volatile trend [1]. - For glass and soda ash, the downstream procurement is cautious, with glass opening high and closing low, and soda ash showing a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - For silicon - manganese and silicon - iron, the supply side is frequently disturbed, with silicon - manganese rising strongly and silicon - iron moving in a volatile manner [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures opened high and closed low yesterday. The spot market had dull trading, and the downstream procurement sentiment was average. This week, the national weekly average price of float glass was 1,251 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.35 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The enterprise operating rate was 75.34%, an increase of 0.34%. The manufacturer's inventory was 67.769 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 0.46% [1]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures showed a narrow - range oscillation yesterday. The spot market demand was average, mainly for rigid - demand procurement. This week, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 78.63%, a decrease of 1.64%. The output was 663,800 tons, a decrease of 2.04%. The inventory was 1.6768 million tons, a decrease of 2.06% [1]. Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: Recently, the glass output has slightly increased. Due to the insufficient recovery of real - estate and deep - processing demand, the restocking intensity and sustainability are weak. Although the glass inventory has slightly decreased, the de - stocking pressure is large, and the price lacks upward momentum. In the later high - temperature and rainy season, it is not conducive to glass storage, and enterprises may have a stronger intention to reduce prices for sales and inventory reduction [1]. - Soda Ash: Affected by the increase in alkali plant maintenance, the recent soda ash output has declined but remains in a loose state. Currently, the growth of the photovoltaic industry has slowed down, and the room for increasing soda ash demand is limited. The de - stocking pressure is still large. Attention should be paid to the summer maintenance of alkali plants and the progress of annual new - capacity production [1]. Strategy - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda Ash: Weakly volatile [2] Silicon - Manganese and Silicon - Iron Market Analysis - Silicon - Manganese: The market oscillated upward yesterday, with an increase of 14,243 open positions and a rapid expansion of trading volume. In the spot market, the mainstream steel tenders started to quote, and the market enthusiasm was average. Factories basically stopped quoting. Affected by industry profits, the silicon - manganese output continued to decline and was at a low level in previous years. The hot - metal output declined from a high level, and the demand for silicon - manganese weakened. The silicon - manganese manufacturer's inventory and registered warrants were at a high level, suppressing the silicon - manganese price. However, considering that the manganese ore port inventory was at a low level, the continuous decline in manganese ore prices had dragged down shipments, which supported the alloy cost. Attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore in the later stage [3]. - Silicon - Iron: The silicon - iron futures moved in a volatile manner yesterday, with a decrease of 7,875 open positions. In the spot market, the silicon - iron market was weak, with mostly cautious operations and little change in transaction prices. Against the background of enterprise losses, the silicon - iron output remained at a medium - low level. The hot - metal output reached the peak and then declined, and the demand for silicon - iron began to weaken. The manufacturer's inventory continued to be depleted, and the downstream enterprise inventory remained at a low level. The silicon - iron production capacity was relatively loose, and the short - term price was dragged down by costs. Attention should be paid to the impact of electricity price changes and industrial policies on the black sector in the future [3]. Strategy - Silicon - Manganese: Volatile [4] - Silicon - Iron: Volatile [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: May 23, 2024 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, although supply has decreased and demand has rebounded, there is still inventory accumulation. The futures price lacks the impetus for continuous growth, and the price will re - enter the downward channel with a potentially weak and volatile trend on the market [8][9]. - For glass, supply has significantly declined, demand is in the traditional off - season, and the demand - boosting effect of policies is limited. The price trend will be weak and volatile in the short term [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data on May 22**: SA509 opened at 1284 yuan/ton, closed at 1286 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.54%, with a decrease of 24,595 lots in positions; SA601 closed at 1276 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.07%, with an increase of 3,943 lots in positions; FG509 closed at 1018 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.77%, with an increase of 64,371 lots in positions; FG601 closed at 1074 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 0.73%, with an increase of 6,554 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda Ash Market**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Central China was 1380 - 1480 yuan/ton, and that of light - quality soda ash was 1250 - 1380 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. Weekly production dropped to 663,800 tons, a 2.04% week - on - week decrease; the capacity utilization rate dropped to 78.63%. The shipment volume was 699,000 tons, a 4.81% week - on - week increase. The weekly inventory of heavy - quality soda ash was 860,000 tons, with a slight reduction [8]. - **Glass Market**: Glass production has dropped significantly to the level of late February, and there is a possibility of further decline. The glass market has entered the traditional off - season, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. Policy support has little effect on boosting demand, and the price will be weak and volatile [10][11]. 2. Industry News - In April 2025, China's soda ash exports were 170,600 tons, a decrease of 23,700 tons month - on - month, with an average export price of $189.13/ton. The cumulative export volume from January to April was 653,900 tons, a 112.02% increase year - on - year. Imports were 4,600 tons, an increase of 1,400 tons month - on - month, with an average import price of $216.79/ton. The cumulative import volume from January to April was 14,500 tons, a 97.58% decrease year - on - year [12]. - The market price of baking soda in Henan remained stable, with the mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade baking soda at 1180 - 1260 yuan/ton [12]. - The domestic float glass market had mixed price changes, with most prices remaining stable. In North China, prices were mostly stable with some minor increases, and the market trading atmosphere was average [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, the market price of heavy - quality soda ash in Central China, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [17][18][16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-5-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂陆续公布检修计划，供给高位小幅下滑；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1320元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1288元/吨，基差为32元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存171.20万吨，较前一周增加0.63%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 一、纯碱期货行情 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯 ...

行业 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 5 月 22 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, on the macro - level, the national economy maintained stable growth in April. Fundamentally, soda ash device fluctuated slightly, with supply decreasing narrowly due to planned maintenance in Qinghai and expected maintenance in the middle and late period. Downstream demand was tepid, with more wait - and - see sentiment, mainly replenishing inventory at low prices. High inventory pressure persisted, suppressing price increases. It is recommended to short on rallies for soda ash [2]. - For glass, on the supply side, the overall profit of glass made from natural gas, coal, and oil decreased slightly due to falling spot prices while production remained stable. On the demand side, there was a lack of positive news, and demand remained weak. Some original sheet enterprises might operate flexibly and offer discounts to avoid high - inventory pressure. The futures price was close to the production cost, and cost support might work in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips for glass [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract was 1,288 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract was 1,034 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The price difference between soda ash and glass was 254 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - The position volume of the soda ash main contract was 1,465,721 hands, down 32,407 hands; the position volume of the glass main contract was 1,484,264 hands, up 1,681 hands [2]. - The net position of the top 20 soda ash traders was - 270,580, up 10,693; the net position of the top 20 glass traders was - 164,811, up 6,861 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash were 2,317 tons, down 453 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of glass were 3,568 tons, down 10 tons [2]. - The price difference between the September and January soda ash contracts was 9 yuan, up 3 yuan; the price difference between the September and January glass contracts was - 54 yuan, up 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The price of North China heavy soda ash was 1,320 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of East China light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China light soda ash was 1,335 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shahe glass sheets was 1,076 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Central China glass sheets was 1,130 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of soda ash was 40 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the basis of glass was 51 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The operating rate of soda ash plants was 80.27%, down 7.47 percentage points; the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 75%, down 0.24 percentage points [2]. - The in - production capacity of glass was 15.63 million tons/year, up 0.11 million tons; the number of in - production glass production lines was 222, unchanged [2]. - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 168.75 tons, down 2.45 tons; the inventory of glass enterprises was 68,082,000 weight boxes, up 522,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of the newly started area of real estate was 12,996.46 million square meters, up 6,382.46 million square meters; the cumulative value of the completed area of real estate was 13,060.27 million square meters, up 4,296.27 million square meters [2]. - From January to April, the state - owned land use right transfer income was 934 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.4% [2]. Industry News - Guangdong encourages local governments to support farmers in buying houses in cities by issuing housing subsidies, housing vouchers, etc [2]. - Shantou plans to supply 161.4 hectares of housing land and renovate 58 old communities in 2025 [2]. - Shanghai's housing and urban - rural construction and management commission investigated the housing provident fund situation of some enterprises [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly. The supply at the high level has slightly declined, the terminal demand improvement is limited, the inventory has been continuously declining but is still at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei was 1310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76%; the main basis was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.67% [5] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei was 1310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11] Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of the heavy soda ash joint - alkali method in East China was 207.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - alkali method in North China was - 14.60 yuan/ton. The soda ash production profit was at a low level in the same period of history [14] Soda Ash开工率, Capacity and Output - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.27%, and the operating rate stabilized and rebounded; the weekly output of soda ash was 67.77 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash was 36.90 tons, and the output declined from the historical high [17][19] Soda Ash Industry Capacity Changes - In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity was 750 tons, and the actual production was 60 tons [21] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales rate of soda ash was 98.42%. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.67 tons, the operating rate was 75% and continued to decline, with weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass stabilized, the daily melting volume in production rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the output stabilized [24][27][30] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 171.20 tons, of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 88.33 tons, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period of history [33] Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 5 月 21 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - The market is relatively cautious, with black commodities showing a weak and volatile trend. Glass and soda ash are fluctuating, while silicon manganese and silicon iron are also in a volatile state [1][3]. - For glass, although the futures market showed a slightly stronger trend and spot market transactions improved, due to insufficient demand recovery in the real - estate and deep - processing industries, there is significant inventory accumulation and high pressure to reduce inventory. For soda ash, production has declined due to increased plant maintenance, but supply remains loose, and demand growth is limited [1]. - In the case of silicon manganese, production has decreased to a low level in recent years, demand has weakened, and high inventory and registered warrants are suppressing prices, although manganese ore cost provides some support. For silicon iron, production is at a medium - low level, demand is weakening, inventory is being depleted, and short - term prices are affected by cost factors [3]. Summary by Relevant Content Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Analysis** - Glass futures showed a slightly stronger trend, and spot market transactions improved with better downstream purchasing sentiment. Soda ash futures had a narrow - range fluctuation, and the spot market demand was average, mainly for rigid needs [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic** - Glass production has been declining, but due to insufficient demand recovery in real - estate and deep - processing, inventory accumulation is obvious, and there is high pressure to reduce inventory. The upcoming high - temperature and rainy season is unfavorable for glass storage, increasing the intention of enterprises to reduce prices and inventory. Soda ash production has decreased due to increased plant maintenance, but supply remains loose. The slowdown in photovoltaic growth limits the increase in demand, and there is still significant pressure to reduce inventory [1]. - **Strategy** - Glass is expected to be volatile, while soda ash is expected to be weakly volatile. There are no specific strategies for inter - period or inter - commodity trading [2]. Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron - **Market Analysis** - Silicon manganese futures showed greater fluctuations, and the overall market was volatile. The final price of mainstream steel tenders has not been determined. Production has decreased to a low level in recent years, demand has weakened, and high inventory and registered warrants are suppressing prices, but manganese ore cost provides support. Silicon iron futures were volatile, with a reduction of 11,000 lots in positions. The spot market was weak, with cautious operations and little change in transaction prices. Production is at a medium - low level, demand is weakening, inventory is being depleted, and short - term prices are affected by cost factors [3]. - **Strategy** - For silicon manganese, near - month contracts are suppressed by warrants, and attention should be paid to the opportunity for a low - level rebound in far - month contracts. Silicon iron is expected to be volatile [4].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, the supply and demand are both decreasing, and the inventory accumulation situation persists. The long - term supply pattern is in surplus, and the demand is difficult to increase. The supply at the low level in the market is maintained for a short time, and the futures price lacks the power to rise continuously. The supply - demand contradiction will become prominent again, and the price will enter the downward channel again, with the futures market likely to show a weak and fluctuating trend [8]. - For glass, the overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains relatively stable. The demand market is relatively dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the production cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market, but the supply - demand game is still the key factor for the subsequent trend [9][10]. Summary by Section 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data on May 19th**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 opened low and went lower, with a closing price of 1,284 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton, and a decline of 1.91%, and an increase of 116,309 lots in positions. The FG509 glass futures contract closed at 1,018 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.19%, and a decrease of 54,017 lots in positions [7]. - **Soda Ash Situation**: The weekly output of soda ash in China dropped to 677,700 tons in the week of May 15th, a month - on - month decrease of 8.52%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 80.27%. The enterprise inventory of heavy soda ash was 880,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. The market supply is in a long - term surplus pattern, and the demand is difficult to increase, so the price will likely decline [8]. - **Glass Situation**: The overall profit in the float glass production field has increased slightly, and the production volume remains stable. The demand market is dull, and the downstream inventory has accumulated. The futures price is approaching the cost line, and the cost support may appear in the short - term. The short - term market has an expectation of rush - exporting, which brings some support to the market [9][10]. 2. Industry News - **Real Estate**: In April, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was flat month - on - month, down 2.1% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared with the previous month. The sales price of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, down 3.2% year - on - year, and the decline narrowed by 0.9 percentage points compared with the previous month [11]. - **Manufacturing Loans**: From January to April, the Export - Import Bank of China invested more than 180 billion yuan in medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and the balance of medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry at the end of April was 1.8 trillion yuan [11]. - **Sodium Bicarbonate Market**: The sodium bicarbonate market in Henan is running weakly, and the downstream makes rigid demand purchases. The mainstream ex - factory price of food - grade sodium bicarbonate is estimated to be between 1,180 - 1,260 yuan/ton [11]. - **Float Glass Market**: The prices of the domestic float glass market are mainly stable, with some fluctuations. The prices in North China have fluctuated, the prices in East China have decreased in some areas, the prices of colored glass in Central China have increased in some factories, the prices in South China are stable, the prices in Northeast China have decreased, and the prices in Southwest China have fluctuated [11]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, the weekly output and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production volume of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [17][18][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and volatile trend. The supply of soda ash is declining from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and although the inventory is continuously declining, it is still at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][4]. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1284 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1320 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 36 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract has decreased by 0.39%, the price in Shahe has remained unchanged, and the basis has increased by 16.13% [5]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1320 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day [11]. - The profit of the heavy soda ash joint - alkali method in East China is 207.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy soda ash ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 14.60 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a low level in the same period [14]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.27%, showing a stable recovery. The weekly output of soda ash is 67.77 tons, with heavy soda ash at 36.90 tons, and the output has declined from a historical high [17][19]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant expansions in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the newly added capacity was 640 tons, in 2024 it was 180 tons, and the planned newly added capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual planned production of 60 tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 98.42% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.67 tons, and the operating rate of 75% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.1 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 171.20 tons, including 88.33 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period [33]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheets from 2017 to 2024E show the changes in effective capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand differences, and growth rates of various indicators in the soda ash industry over the years [34].