Core Viewpoint - The current market is transitioning from high growth to moderate growth, with a trend of convergence between technology and value sectors in the new cycle [1] Group 1: Market Cycle Analysis - Understanding cyclical changes is essential for future market judgments, with significant shifts observed over the past two decades [2] - The first phase (2000-2010) was dominated by cyclical growth, benefiting heavy industries, resource sectors, and low-end manufacturing [3] - The second phase (2010-2021) saw a shift towards growth, driven by urbanization and the rise of consumer demand and emerging services, with the ChiNext index experiencing rapid growth [3] - Since 2021, the market has gradually shifted back to moderate growth, with value styles regaining dominance, as evidenced by the performance of the STAR Market index compared to the CSI Dividend Index [3] - Long-term migration of industry weights indicates structural upgrades, with technology, consumer healthcare, and cyclical finance gaining share in the CSI 300 over the past 16 years [3] Group 2: Future Outlook for 2026 - The outlook for 2026 is summarized by three keywords: technology leading, value following, and returning to leaders, based on long-term industry structural evolution [4] - The current AI narrative, represented by the STAR Market, mirrors the technology cycle from 2011 to 2015, but with different supporting backgrounds such as demographic changes and geopolitical factors [4] - Key signals for market improvement include PPI and inventory conditions, with expectations for corporate performance to improve in mid-2024 following a low PPI point [4][5] Group 3: Investment Directions - The market is witnessing a recovery in value sectors, which may present structural opportunities in 2026, especially after a year of significant underperformance compared to growth sectors [6] - Investment focus will include cyclical industries (oil, coal, basic metals), non-banking sectors (insurance, brokerage), high ROE industries (internet, traditional consumption), and new cycle industries (new energy, power equipment) [6] - Continuous themes may emerge in CXO, innovative pharmaceuticals, AI applications, and humanoid robotics, although market volatility is expected to increase [6] Group 4: Research and Investment Strategy - The exponential growth of fund numbers, asset management scale, and listed companies has increased information density, posing challenges for research and investment [7] - The company is developing a systematic investment approach through professional division of labor and industrialized production lines to meet client needs [7] - AI is anticipated to become a core capability in active management, fundamentally reshaping the research and investment chain over the next three years [7]

北京商报讯（记者刘四红）12月11日，由中外企业文化、北京商报社主办的2025年度北京商业品牌大会 金融消费专题论坛在北京召开。会上，北京商报社社长兼总编辑李波涛发表致辞。 李波涛表示，明年促消费政策继续加码，更重视服务消费。综合施策促消费方向，会延续几大方向：为 居民增收、减负、优化供给，这其中金融势必大有可为。 "碰撞观点、进化认知，寻求共识，是我们以论坛为媒介，搭建这样一个交流平台的最终目的，也是北 京商报深蓝智库创办的初衷。"李波涛指出，期望通过搭建一个产、学、研、媒、政多方交流的平台， 能够以信息的交流促成共识，以观点的碰撞启发新思，最终汇聚资源，推动行业的协同发展与共赢共 生。 在经济社会和舆论传播环境都发生深刻变化的当下，作为专业的财经媒体机构，不仅要做健康金融市场 的观察者、瞭望者，更要做充满活力的消费市场的助力者、推动者。 "作为社会经济发展的热门词，我们用三个词来定义商业消费：背景板、坐标点和风向标。"李波涛认 为，商业提供着独特的文化氛围和城市价值，是城市居民和谐生活以及乐观信心的支撑。同时，商业和 消费也是城市变迁的记忆和符号，是坐标点，也是风向标，是市场和社会信心的"晴雨表"，是商业 ...

（原标题：四川"十五五"规划建议：加快发展低空经济、新材料等新兴产业） 经济观察网 近日，中共四川省委关于制定四川省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议发布。 其中提出，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业。推动战略性新兴产业集聚成势，实施产业创新工程，推进产 业新赛道争先竞速行动，着力打造新兴支柱产业。做强生物医药、轨道交通装备、节能环保等国家战略 性新兴产业集群，壮大新型显示、集成电路、无人机、核技术应用等省级战略性新兴产业集群，加快发 展人工智能、低空经济、新能源、新材料、智能网联汽车、核医疗、激光装备、增材制造等新兴产业。 加快建设西部商业航天港、航空动力科创区，推进航空航天强省建设。前瞻布局发展未来产业，聚焦第 六代移动通信、量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚变能、深空深地、脑机接口、具身智能、前沿半导体 等领域，加快突破前沿关键核心技术，建设一批未来产业孵化器和先导区。推动新技术新产品新场景应 用示范，完善产业生态，建设新场景推广应用中心，建立未来产业投入增长和风险分担机制，加快新兴 产业规模化发展。促进中小企业专精特新发展，培育瞪羚企业、独角兽企业。 中共四川省委关于制定四川省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五 ...

Macro Economic and Industry Outlook - The report indicates that China's economic deflationary pressure is expected to ease, but the momentum remains weak. Consumer inflation (CPI) rose from 0.2% to 0.7% in November, driven by food price increases and a low year-on-year base, marking a two-year high. Core CPI remained unchanged, while PPI showed a slight decline due to a high base last year, but month-on-month growth has increased for two consecutive months since 2023 [4][3] - The report forecasts that the CPI and PPI will recover from 0% and -2.7% in 2025 to 0.7% and -0.5% in 2026, respectively, indicating a gradual easing of deflationary pressures [4] Industry Outlook Technology - The global technology industry is expected to experience a dual trend of differentiated terminal demand and accelerated AI innovation by 2026. The report highlights that the demand for computing power will continue to be a core growth driver, with a focus on AI infrastructure and end-side AI innovations [4][5] - The report suggests monitoring two main lines: 1) AI computing infrastructure, where upgrades in VR/ASIC architecture will drive growth in ODM and component prices; 2) End-side AI innovations, particularly in AI smartphones and devices, with companies like Luxshare Precision, Hontai Precision, BYD Electronics, Sunny Optical, and Xiaomi Group being highlighted as key players [4][5] Servers - The global server market is projected to be dominated by AI infrastructure investments, with AI server shipments expected to grow by 50% year-on-year to 2.32 million units in 2026. The market will see a "GPU/ASIC dual-drive" pattern, with significant advancements in interconnects, cooling, and power supply components [5] Smartphones - The report anticipates a 5% decline in global smartphone shipments to 1.18 billion units in 2026, primarily affecting low-end models. However, the high-end market is expected to remain resilient due to AI innovations, with Apple set to launch several new products, including the first foldable iPhone [6] AR/VR - The report predicts that global AI glasses shipments will exceed 10 million units by 2026, marking the beginning of the smart glasses 2.0 era. Major tech companies are accelerating their investments in this sector, with a long-term outlook suggesting that AR glasses will gain significant market traction by 2030 [7] PC and Automotive Electronics - The global PC market is expected to face pressure due to the end of the Windows 11 upgrade cycle and rising storage costs, with a slight decline in shipments. However, AI PCs are projected to penetrate the market significantly, with over 50% of shipments being AI PCs by 2026. The report also highlights opportunities in the L4+ autonomous driving sector, particularly in high-voltage connectors and smart cockpit displays [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75% for the third time this year, with a plan to start purchasing about $40 billion of short - term Treasuries per month from December 12. The dot - plot predicts one 25 - basis - point cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively [7]. - China's economy shows significant resilience, with the IMF raising its growth forecasts for China in 2025 and 2026 to 5.0% and 4.5% respectively [9]. - China's AI has entered an application explosion period, with the number of AI applications reaching 657 by October, a year - on - year increase of 61.8%, and the mobile user scale exceeding 700 million [9]. - For the stock market, the future market index needs to transition from a liquidity - driven bull market to a fundamental - driven one, and before that, consolidation is the main theme [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - On December 11, 2025, among domestic chemical products, paper pulp had the largest increase of 2.796%, while fuel oil had the largest decrease of 1.030% compared to December 10 [4]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - On December 11, 2025, among domestic agricultural products, rapeseed oil had the largest increase of 1.356%, while white sugar had the largest decrease of 1.877% compared to December 10 [4]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: The market lacks strong drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with pressure around 8120 yuan and support around 8050 yuan [11]. - Sugar: Under the pressure of internal and external supply, the sugar price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern, with support around 5300 yuan/ton [11]. - Corn: The price may continue to oscillate and adjust in the short term, with support around 2220 yuan and pressure around 2250 yuan [11]. - Pigs: The futures market shows a contradiction between weak reality and improved expectations. It is recommended to do long with a small number of warehouse receipts and conduct reverse spreads on the inter - month spread [11]. - Eggs: The market is expected to oscillate strongly, with short positions partially closing for profit and inter - month reverse spreads continuing to be held [12]. - Cotton: The current market lacks a clear driver, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, with pressure at 13800 yuan and support around 13700 yuan [12]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The futures price may continue to oscillate weakly, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in off - season storage and export quotas [12]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the 2601 contract continues to operate weakly, with a short - selling mindset [12]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate weakly at a low level in the short term [13]. - Logs: It is recommended to adopt a short - selling mindset, with support at the intraday low of 747 yuan and pressure at 768 yuan [13]. - Pulp: In the medium term, it may maintain an oscillating pattern, with support around 5350 yuan/ton and pressure at 5600 yuan/ton [13]. - Offset Printing Paper: It is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, and interval trading can be considered with support at 4000 points and pressure around 4100 points [13]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: After the Fed's interest rate cut, copper and aluminum prices fluctuate sharply at high levels, and macro risks should be noted [17]. - Alumina: The fundamental situation is in surplus. If the price further drops, pay attention to enterprise production cuts, and the 2601 contract operates at a low level [18]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a low - level range in the short term, with rebar at 3050 - 3200 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3200 - 3350 yuan [19]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are not strongly driven, and prices fluctuate weakly following the black series [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is recommended to wait and see, and beware of price corrections due to insufficient demand or increased supply [21]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index Options: Trend investors can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to bet on increased volatility [23]. - Stock Index: The market is in a period of waiting for a new main line. The Central Economic Work Conference may be a key policy window for the "cross - year market". The spring market may require the resonance of multiple factors [24].

点阵图显示，19位官员对2026年降息路径存在分歧：7位认为不应降息，4位支持累计降息25个基点，4 位支持降息50个基点，2位支持降息75个基点，1位支持降息100个基点，1位支持降息150个基点。 鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，当前通胀仍受关税影响"有所上升"，若抛开关税因素则处于2%左右偏低 水平；失业率微升、就业增长放缓，人工智能或为就业疲软原因之一但非主因；美联储已处于中性利率 区间高端，未来国债购买规模可能先维持高位再下降。 一、外围市场与关联资产 隔夜美股三大指数集体收涨，道指涨1.05%，纳指涨0.33%，标普500指数涨0.67%。 大型科技股涨跌不一，高通涨超3%，亚马逊、特斯拉、博通涨超1%，谷歌涨约1%，苹果、甲骨文、英 特尔小幅收涨；奈飞跌超4%，微软跌超2%，Meta跌超1%，英伟达、AMD小幅收跌。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.64%，虎牙涨超6%，大全新能源、禾赛科技、百胜中 国涨超2%，阿里巴巴、百度、爱奇艺涨超1%，理想汽车、老虎证券跌超1%。 此外，甲骨文因第二财季调整后营收及云营收不及预期，美股盘后股价持续下挫，跌幅从6%扩大至 10%。 二、宏观经济与市 ...

国际油价10日上涨。截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所WTI原油期货当月连续合约上涨0.71美元，收于每 桶58.96美元，涨幅为1.22%。 盘面上，大型科技股多数上涨，特斯拉、亚马逊、博通、谷歌涨超1%，Meta跌超1%，微软跌超2%。 存储、储能概念股、基建股涨幅居前，GE Vernova涨超15%，Sandisk涨超6%，美光科技涨超4%，卡特 彼勒涨超3%。加密货币、电子游戏与多媒体板块跌幅居前，Roblox、游戏驿站跌超4%，Strategy跌超 2%。 热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.65%。小马智行涨3.45%，阿里巴巴涨1.83%，百度 涨1.72%，爱奇艺涨1.48%，哔哩哔哩跌0.12%，小鹏汽车跌0.81%。 欧洲三大股指10日涨跌不一。英国伦敦股市《金融时报》100种股票平均价格指数报收于9655.53点，较 前一交易日上涨13.52点，涨幅为0.14%；法国巴黎股市CAC40指数报收于8022.69点，较前一交易日下 跌29.82点，跌幅为0.37%；德国法兰克福股市DAX指数报收于24130.14点，较前一交易日下跌32.51点， 跌幅为0.13%。 美东时间周三（10 ...

⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数跌0.60%报98.64，离岸人民币对美元跌2个基点报7.0604； ⑧伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME期铜涨0.63%报11559.50美元/吨，LME期锡涨0.38%报40010.00美元/ 吨，LME期铅涨0.30%报1984.50美元/吨，LME期铝涨0.21%报2862.50美元/吨，LME期镍跌0.40%报 14675.00美元/吨，LME期锌跌0.49%报3075.00美元/吨； ⑨美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌7.24个基点报3.538%，3年期美债收益率跌6.39个基点报 3.589%，5年期美债收益率跌5.59个基点报3.731%，10年期美债收益率跌3.51个基点报4.149%，30年期 美债收益率跌2.01个基点报4.787%； ②大型科技股多数上涨，特斯拉、亚马逊、博通、谷歌涨超1%，Meta跌超1%，微软跌超2%； ③热门中概股多数上涨，阿特斯太阳能涨超5%，晶科能源涨逾3%，贝壳涨近4%，小马智行涨超3%， 大全新能源涨近3%，挚文集团跌超6%，世纪互联跌逾4%，BOSS直聘跌超1%，腾讯音乐跌逾1%，亿 航智能跌超1%； ④欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国 ...

智通财经APP讯，海隆控股(01623)发布公告，其已就现有票据的建议离岸债务重组取得进展。本公司已 于本日以现有票据(于2024年到期的9.75%优先有抵押票据)持有人(持有人)为对象展开同意征求，旨在修 订由(其中包括)本公司与纽约梅隆银行伦敦分行(作为受托人(受托人))所订立日期为2021年5月18日规管 现有票据的契约(经日期为2025年10月23日的第一份补充契约补充并经不时修订或补充，于建议修订前 称为现有契约)的若干条款，包括延长现有票据到期日及若干其他变更。 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The company, Hangzhou Hongquan Internet of Things Technology Co., Ltd., is providing a guarantee for its subsidiary, Dingdong Zhitu Information Technology Co., Ltd., to secure a loan of RMB 10 million from Ningbo Bank, which is aimed at supporting the subsidiary's business development needs [1][5]. Group 1: Guarantee Details - The company will provide a maximum joint liability guarantee for a loan of RMB 10 million to Dingdong Zhitu, with a guarantee period of two years from the maturity of the debtor's obligations [1][5]. - The guarantee is part of a broader authorization allowing the company to provide guarantees up to RMB 30 million for its subsidiaries, which includes various forms of guarantees such as pledges and mortgages [2]. Group 2: Decision-Making Process - The decision to provide the guarantee was approved during the board meeting on April 28, 2025, and subsequently ratified at the annual shareholders' meeting on May 20, 2025, with unanimous support from the board [2][6]. - The company holds an 81.28% controlling interest in Dingdong Zhitu, indicating that the risks associated with the guarantee are manageable and will not adversely affect the interests of the company and its shareholders [5][6]. Group 3: Financial Position and Risk Assessment - As of the announcement date, the total amount of guarantees provided by the company to its subsidiaries is RMB 0, indicating no prior guarantees have been issued, which reflects a strong financial position [7]. - There are no overdue guarantees or any guarantees involved in litigation, further supporting the company's stable financial standing [7].