柬埔寨财经部在最新发布的半年度报告中指出，尽管面临外部挑战，柬埔寨工业领域在2025年仍有望实 现稳健增长。报告预测，2025年柬埔寨工业领域增速预计为7.1%，略低于此前的预期，主要原因是服 装及非服装制造业的增速放缓。不过，汽车组装、食品饮料等行业保持了稳定增长，而建筑业也呈现逐 步复苏的态势。 作为柬埔寨工业的最大支柱，服装业预计实现10.1%的增长。报告分析，虽然上半年该行业出口表现超 出预期，这主要得益于在对美新关税实施前，部分订单提前出货，这一增长势头预计将在年底减弱。 报告特别指出："从8月起对美实施的新出口关税，将影响第四季度的新订单。"尽管美国市场面临挑 战，但对欧盟和中国等其他市场的出口预计将保持积极态势，这在一定程度上抵消了美国市场下滑带来 的影响，成为服装业维持增长的关键动力。 与服装业类似，非服装制造业的增速预计为6.9%，未能达到最初的预期。报告解释，柬泰边境的紧张 局势一度减缓了原材料的流通，而对等关税的影响已波及多种对美出口品类。面对这些挑战，企业正积 极调整供应链，例如将部分陆运转为海运和空运，以确保生产和出口的顺畅。 2025年上半年，多个非服装品类的出口实现了显著增长，彰 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. tariff policy isolates the country from globalization, leading to negative consequences primarily borne by American consumers [1][2] - The U.S. has a limited share in global trade, and if other countries unite, the effectiveness of U.S. protectionist policies will diminish [1] - The immediate consequence of tariffs in the U.S. is an increase in prices, acting as a de facto tax on consumers, with a majority of Americans perceiving tariffs as harmful due to rising living costs [1][2] Group 2 - Tariffs may temporarily protect specific industries like steel and aluminum, but they increase costs across broader supply chains, negatively impacting the overall economy [2] - The Trump administration's tariff policies are unlikely to compel companies to relocate manufacturing to the U.S. due to the current poor state of American manufacturing [2] - The ultimate impact of these policies will depend on the reaction of the American public, particularly in the context of upcoming midterm elections, which will serve as a significant test for the Trump administration [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a significant shift in the U.S. geopolitical economic strategy under the Trump administration, characterized by unprecedented tariffs aimed at reshaping global supply chains, curbing China's influence, and re-establishing U.S. economic dominance [1][5]. Tariff Impact - The scale of the tariff measures is alarming, with proposed tariffs of 46% on Vietnamese exports, 49% on Cambodian goods, 36% on Thai products, 32% on Indonesian items, and 24% on Malaysian exports [2][4]. - Following the announcement, Southeast Asian currencies such as the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit experienced sharp declines, leading to significant market volatility [4]. Trade Balance and Strategy - The U.S. claims these tariffs are a response to "unfair trade practices," yet many ASEAN countries are sources of substantial U.S. trade surpluses, with a total trade volume of $476.8 billion in 2024, including $352.3 billion in exports from ASEAN to the U.S. [4][5]. - Analysts suggest that the true aim of the tariffs is to economically compel Southeast Asian nations to decouple from China, making their ties with China less economically viable [5][6]. Political Leverage - The U.S. strategy is described as using international trade as a tool for political coercion, effectively weaponizing trade to achieve its geopolitical objectives [6]. - The uncertainty surrounding the implementation of these tariffs serves as a strategic weapon, creating confusion and anxiety among targeted nations and businesses, thereby maximizing U.S. leverage in negotiations [7]. ASEAN's Response - ASEAN's collective response to the U.S. tariffs has been weak, with member states unable to form a unified front against U.S. unilateralism, leading to a situation where individual countries seek bilateral negotiations with the U.S. [10][11]. - The establishment of a "Vietnam precedent," where Vietnam negotiated a reduction in tariffs from 46% to 20%, has shifted the focus of other ASEAN countries from collective resistance to individual negotiations, fostering competition among them [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - Europe, once an industrial powerhouse, is now facing unprecedented challenges in its manufacturing sector, particularly in the automotive industry, due to the ongoing repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and an energy crisis [2][7] Group 1: Trade Barriers and Protectionism - The EU announced in 2024 the imposition of "anti-subsidy tariffs" on Chinese electric vehicles, claiming it is to maintain "fair competition," which reveals Europe's own struggles in the electric vehicle sector [5] - France initiated sanctions against the Chinese automotive industry, leading to the EU's "anti-subsidy investigation" and subsequent tariffs on Chinese products, similar to previous actions against Chinese solar panels [5][7] - The protectionist tendencies observed in Europe are not unique, as multiple European countries have followed the U.S. lead in imposing barriers against Chinese high-tech products under the guise of "national security" [9] Group 2: Energy Dependency and Strategic Failures - Europe's manufacturing sector has long relied on cheap Russian energy, and the disruption caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to soaring energy costs, negatively impacting the competitiveness of European products [7] - The slow response of Europe in addressing climate change and energy transition has resulted in missed opportunities in the new energy sector, prompting a reliance on trade barriers to compensate for strategic failures [7][9] - Experts argue that instead of building walls, Europe should confront its issues and focus on industrial upgrades and technological innovation to remain competitive globally [9]