投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | C 国贸易所设 | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (bp) | | | (bp) | | है | DRO01 | 1.33 | 9.30 | DR007 | 1.98 | 29.47 | | 市 | GC001 | 1.86 | -17.50 | GC007 | 1.74 | -31.00 | | 市 | SHBOR 3M | 1.60 | -0.20 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 场 | 1年期国债 | 1.34 | 0.18 | 5年期国债 | 1.63 | 1.33 | | 与 | 10年期国债 | 1.85 | -0.29 | 10年期美债 | 4.19 | 1.00 | | 流 | | | 同顾:2025年最后一个交易日。央行公开市场操作继续大幅的量并保持 | | | | 回顾:2025年最后一个交易日,央行公开市场操作继续大幅放量并保持 净投放,银行间市场周三资金面整体依 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The central bank will have 11220 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations due this week, and there will be 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed deposits due on Thursday. The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to keep social financing conditions relatively loose and promote a reasonable recovery of prices [4]. - Yesterday, the macro news was calm, and the stock index showed a differentiated trend. Small and medium - cap stocks were relatively weak, while large - cap stocks were more resilient. The market is in a state of long - short interweaving, lacking a core driving force. The stock index is expected to continue the volatile pattern with support at the bottom and pressure upwards. Short - term market differences will be digested during the volatility, waiting for a new driving force to push the index up [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Market - DRO01 closed at 1.42%, down 10.66bp; DR007 closed at 1.51%, down 1.08bp; GC001 closed at 1.63%, down 6.50bp; GC007 closed at 1.51%, down 5.00bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58%, unchanged; LPR 5 - year was 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury bond yield was 1.40%, down 0.30bp; 10 - year treasury bond yield was 1.81%, up 0.40bp; 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.12%, down 1.00bp [3]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 11220 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchase due, resulting in a net investment of 6262 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - Yesterday, the CSI 300 rose 0.44% to 4588.3; the SSE 50 rose 0.58% to 3020.3; the CSI 500 fell 0.4% to 7122.7; the CSI 1000 fell 0.82% to 7387.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 17259 billion yuan, a decrease of 2002 billion yuan from the previous day. The industry sectors had more decliners than gainers [5]. - The IF contract had a trading volume of 122613, up 0.6%, and an open interest of 272167, down 2.3%; the IH contract had a trading volume of 53539, down 2.2%, and an open interest of 95237, down 2.5%; the IC contract had a trading volume of 132592, down 1.4%, and an open interest of 248512, down 2.2%; the IM contract had a trading volume of 227467, up 4.5%, and an open interest of 364139, up 0.6% [5]. 3.3 Futures Premium and Discount Situation - The IF premium rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 19.46%, 6.12%, 3.69%, and 3.73% respectively; the IH premium rates were 14.19%, 3.77%, 1.39%, and 1.38% respectively; the IC premium rates were 15.75%, 11.61%, 10.48%, and 11.09% respectively; the IM premium rates were - 7.88%, 14.66%, 13.00%, and 12.79% respectively [7].

Market Data Summary - DRO01 closed at 1.51 with a 2.52 bp increase, DR007 at 1.51 with a 1.33 bp increase, GC001 at 1.64 with a 43.50 bp increase, and GC007 at 1.53 with a 5.00 bp increase [4] - SHBOR 3M remained at 1.58, LPR 5 - year at 3.50, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.56 bp increase, 5 - year treasury at 1.57 with a - 0.88 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.81 with a - 0.05 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.13 with a 2.00 bp increase [4] - The central bank conducted 4038 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 1175 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 2863 billion yuan [4] - This week, 4958 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 783 billion, 1175 billion, 655 billion, 928 billion, and 1417 billion maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4] - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote a reasonable recovery of prices and keep social financing conditions relatively loose [4] Stock Index Market - CSI 300 closed at 4652, down 0.91%; SSE 50 at 3035, down 0.63%; CSI 500 at 7292, down 0.71%; and CSI 1000 at 7541, down 0.30% [6] - IF volume was 110400 with a 3.4% increase, IH volume 50142 with a 9.2% increase, IC volume 112484 with an 8.4% decrease, and IM volume 186082 with a 4.3% decrease [6] - IF open interest was 263184 with a 1.9% decrease, IH open interest 94744 with a 2.0% decrease, IC open interest 241256 with a 3.2% decrease, and IM open interest 354095 with a 0.2% decrease [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19936 billion yuan, a decrease of 1809 billion yuan from the previous day [6] - Photovoltaic equipment, chemical raw materials, non - metallic materials, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical commerce sectors led the gains, while insurance, energy metals, aerospace, electronic components, and software development sectors led the losses [6] Market Outlook - The stock index closed down in a volatile manner. The current macro - level is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, lacking a core driving force [7] - Market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the stock index's volatile adjustment. New driving factors such as overseas liquidity release or domestic fundamental improvement will be key for the market to rise [7] Stock Index Futures Basis - IF basis was 9.39% for the current - month contract, 5.24% for the next - month contract, 3.15% for the current - quarter contract, and 3.32% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IH basis was 1.24% for the current - month contract, 0.52% for the next - month contract, 0.47% for the current - quarter contract, and 0.66% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IC basis was 24.73% for the current - month contract, 15.62% for the next - month contract, 11.17% for the current - quarter contract, and 10.87% for the next - quarter contract [8] - IM basis was 31.07% for the current - month contract, 19.16% for the next - month contract, 14.03% for the current - quarter contract, and 13.00% for the next - quarter contract [8]

Report Summary 1. Market Data and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.31 with a -0.03 bp change, DR007 at 1.42 with a -1.44 bp change, GC001 at 1.54 with a 19.00 bp change, and GC007 at 1.50 with a 1.00 bp change [3]. - SHBOR 3M was at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.40 with a 0.75 bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.58 with a 0.50 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.76 with a 0.60 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.02 with a - 0.50 bp change [3]. - The central bank conducted 43.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40% with a net injection of 43.5 billion yuan as there were no reverse repurchase maturities [3]. - This week, 1021 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 612 billion yuan and 409 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [4]. 2. Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.48% to 4606.3, SSE 50 rose 1.36% to 3001.3, CSI 500 rose 1.38% to 7294, and CSI 1000 rose 1.5% to 7483.4 [5]. - Industry sectors generally rose, with automotive, aviation, power grid equipment, and pharmaceutical sectors leading the gains, while shipping and small - metal sectors declined [5]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.0729 trillion yuan, a significant decrease of 503.4 billion yuan or 17% from the previous day [5]. 3. Futures Contracts and Market Outlook - In the futures market, IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all showed price increases, but their trading volumes and open interests decreased to varying degrees [5]. - In the short term, the stock index is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies and the Sino - US leaders' meeting at the APEC in South Korea at the end of this month [5]. - Small - and medium - cap stocks with high technology weights may face greater shocks, and risk - hedging tools such as CSI 1000 put options can be considered [5]. - The CSI 300 and SSE 50 indexes are expected to show stronger resilience, and in the long term, the upward trend of the stock index is expected to continue [5]. 4. Futures Contract Premium and Discount - IF's premium/discount rates for different contracts were 0.00%, 4.22%, 3.64%, and 2.61% respectively [5]. - IH's were 1.03%, 11.85%, 0.74%, and 0.23% [5]. - IC's were 13.23%, 39.54%, 11.84%, and 10.17% [5]. - IM's were 67.43%, 15.93%, 15.63%, and 13.23% [5].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 宏观金融数据日报 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 我則一日变 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (%) | | | 动(%) | | 沪深300 | 3882 | -0.81 | IF当月 | 3846 | -0.9 | | 上证50 | 2712 | -0.80 | IH当月 | 2693 | -0.8 | | 中证500 | 5653 | -0.88 | IC当月 | 5562 | -0.9 | | 中证1000 | 5990 | -1.26 | IM当月 | 5872 | -1.3 | | IF成交量 | 110117 | 52.7 | IF持仓量 | 251143 | 7.7 | | IH成交量 | 51804 | 38.4 | IH持仓量 | 85531 | 9.0 | | IC成交量 | 98824 | 27.3 | IC持仓量 | 216012 | 4.0 | | IM成交量 | 233775 | 15.2 | IM持仓量 | 335860 | 1.6 | ...

Report Overview - The report is a macro financial data daily report released by the Guomao Futures Research Institute's Macro Financial Research Center on May 7, 2025 [2][3] Central Bank Operations and Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted 405 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 1087 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan [3] - This week, 1617.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 1087 billion yuan and 530.8 billion yuan maturing on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively [4] - The Politburo meeting stated the need to "timely cut reserve - requirement ratios and interest rates", "create new structural monetary policy tools, and establish new policy - based financial tools to support technological innovation, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade" [4] Interest Rate Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | | DRO01 | 1.71 | -7.58 | | DR007 | 1.73 | -7.14 | | GC001 | 1.71 | 17.00 | | GC007 | 1.74 | 1.50 | | SHBOR 3M | 1.75 | -0.20 | | LPR 5 - year | 3.60 | 0.00 | | 1 - year Treasury Bond | 1.46 | 0.25 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond | 1.51 | 0.75 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond | 1.63 | 0.50 | | 10 - year US Treasury Bond | 4.36 | 3.00 | [3] Stock Index and Futures Market Index Performance - The CSI 300 rose 1.01% to 3808.5, the SSE 50 rose 0.55% to 2647.7, the CSI 500 rose 1.93% to 5740.3, and the CSI 1000 rose 2.57% to 6102.9 [6] - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1336.2 billion yuan, an increase of 166.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [6] - Most industry sectors rose, with small metals, power equipment, consumer electronics, precious metals, general equipment, communication equipment, computer equipment, diversified finance, and motor sectors leading the gains, while only the banking sector declined [6] Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change from Previous Day (%) | Volume Change (%) | Open Interest Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Current Month | 3798 | 1.2 | 22.8 | 0.9 | | IH Current Month | 2646 | 0.7 | -0.6 | 0.0 | | IC Current Month | 5706 | 2.1 | 19.0 | 3.3 | | IM Current Month | 6060 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 2.9 | [5] Market Outlook and Strategy - On the first trading day after the holiday, the A - share market showed a gap - up and high - going trend driven by the collective recovery of overseas markets, with IM leading the gains in index futures [7] - Two repair drivers are worthy of attention: the expectation of Sino - US tariff relaxation and the verification of overseas AI industry prosperity are beneficial to improving market liquidity and boosting the technology sector; after the earnings disclosure window in late April, the performance uncertainty of small - and medium - cap companies has significantly decreased [7] - The CSI 1000's repair strength has significantly lagged behind large - cap indexes such as the CSI 300. If the market continues to recover, its technical catch - up potential is worthy of attention. Historically, the average excess return of CSI 1000 index constituents during the earnings vacuum period (May - July) is 2.3% [7] - It is expected that the significant differentiation between large - and small - cap styles may converge. The strategy is to focus on the elasticity release opportunities of small - and medium - cap stocks after the market stabilizes, with IM as the main long - position variety [7] Index Futures Premium and Discount | Variety | Current Month Contract | Next Month Contract | Current Quarter Contract | Next Quarter Contract | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF Premium/Discount | 10.49% | 9.02% | 7.04% | 5.35% | | IH Premium/Discount | 2.64% | 5.55% | 5.00% | 3.24% | | IC Premium/Discount | 22.09% | 16.72% | 11.98% | 9.90% | | IM Premium/Discount | 25.91% | 19.90% | 14.46% | 12.20% | [8]

Group 1: Market Interest Rates and Central Bank Operations - DRO01 closed at 1.54 with a -5.09bp change, DR007 at 1.78 with a 3.35bp change, GC001 at 1.61 with a -28.50bp change, GC007 at 1.68 with a -17.00bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.75 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.60 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.46 with a -0.50bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.51 with a -2.00bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.62 with a -2.35bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.23 with a -6.00bp change [3] - The central bank conducted 340.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.50%, resulting in a net daily injection of 120 billion yuan after 220.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - This week, 504.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, with 176 billion, 220.5 billion, and 108 billion maturing from Monday to Wednesday respectively, and the rest postponed to the first trading day after the May Day holiday [4] - The meeting mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", but the urgency of short - term cuts has decreased considering the first - quarter economic data and tariff uncertainties [4] Group 3: Stock Index Performance - The CSI 300 closed at 3775, down 0.17%; the SSE 50 at 2646, down 0.22%; the CSI 500 at 5604.9, up 0.12%; and the CSI 1000 at 5903.4, up 0.45%. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.02 trillion yuan, a decrease of 34.3 billion yuan [5] - Industry sectors showed more gains than losses, with beauty care, plastics products, pesticides and veterinary drugs, auto parts, chemical products, shipbuilding, and decoration sectors leading the gains, while the power, insurance, and shipping port sectors leading the losses [5] Group 4: Stock Index Futures and Options Strategy - The short - term trend of stock indices faces a situation of mixed long and short factors. The uncertainty of the Trump administration's actions complicates Sino - US tariff negotiations, while the first - quarter economic data reduces the urgency of short - term incremental policies [6] - The short - term recommendation is to hold a light position in stock index futures and wait for the market direction to become clear. Before the May Day holiday, consider the double - buying strategy for stock index options due to high overseas uncertainties and low option volatility [6] Group 5: Stock Index Futures Basis - The IF basis for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts is 9.83%, 9.35%, 7.10%, and 5.35% respectively; the IH basis is 5.29%, 6.45%, 5.38%, and 3.66% respectively; the IC basis is 11.92%, 14.74%, 11.12%, and 9.16% respectively; and the IM basis is 12.87%, 15.43%, 12.68%, and 11.23% respectively [7]